On June 13 2024 15:18 Trfel wrote:On June 13 2024 14:53 Mocsta wrote:this was a good post to me,- much more thought provoking than i expected
as i have written a response.. i've gone.. damn. thats stupid from me and very fair points from you.
what can i say. anti-town award for me?
On June 13 2024 13:28 Trfel wrote:
Mocsta, can I break this down with you?
If there is something I am misunderstanding, please point it out. It is very possible that I am missing something.
You think AlphaZero is mafia for how he posts about sandroba but doesn't end up voting for him, right? Basing this off of post #3410.
Mostly correct. Paraphrased its about the byproduct of AlphaZero posts/votes create voting optionality, and applies whether voting a town or scum flip.
Yes, town change reads and votes (I'm proof), and typically new information is the driver (or being stupid for me). Whereas, pursuing optionality, in particular without applying new information, is mafia mindset.
The push-pull was about demonstrating through AlphaZeros quote history, the optionality kept open on Sandroba over 72 hours and 120+ posts that presented during that time; and bear in mind, this is for an F-Tier hard scum read so i attribute the optionality as opportunistic and therefore scummy.
Why would AlphaZero, as mafia, share so many suspicions about his mafia partner sandroba and then not bus him when it becomes obvious sandroba is being lynched and sandroba gives up? (I mean, good mafia play is to bus him before it becomes hyper obvious, but at the very least he should do it at that point) It looks to me like your argument is that AlphaZero is mafia because he set himself up to bus sandroba but then just decided not to. I could buy this if there was any hope of keeping sandroba alive, but there clearly wasn't?
We could be viewing two sides of the same coin?
For example, in poker, there is the mathematically optimal way to play a hand; yet, that doesn't gurantee you win the pot. Somewhere along the lines, other human factors come into play. Some players, like yourself & Rayn veer towards the analytical approach to the game; others like town!sandroba veer towards the human intuition side, and then occasionally you get muppets like me that create lots of noise.
BTW, my argument is that AlphaZero used push-pull to save Sandroba and maintain distance.. I read all his pushes as soft and I personally view AlphaZero push-pull defense of Sandroba as preventing him from bussing if that was a desired outcome - i.e. to jump in the last 5 hours would be sus.. and perhaps only rayn can resolve this via discussions from mason log
Like, why does this make AlphaZero mafia when what you (Mocsta) did, defending sandroba and looking for alternative wagons, presumably comes from town? How is what AlphaZero did any scummier or more mafia motivated than what you did?
yep, after the fact, my play is anti-town.
I reduce this to:
1. not trusting town, that they would come together and stick. like, what game locks in wagons 5 hrs before lynch.
2. being overly concerned about last minute majority flips
i mean, if you examine the whats, perhaps there is an argument of similarity much like what you have poited.
I know my why, i shared it. you can choose to believe it or not. It has become anti-town, and thats not the same as mafia up-side either.
The elements I have identified consistently across 72hrs with AZ, for me, if i implemented that optionlaity opportunisticly, the why is mafia upsides each and every time.
Yes, it's possible that AlphaZero is mafia and realized too late that he should bus sandroba and then decided it would be too suspicious to switch and just ended up not bussing him. I think AlphaZero is clearly a better player than this, but I can't entirely rule out the possibility.
Even if you think "well Trfel, someone's gonna say that same argument you just said about why mafia would bus and how AlphaZero not joining the wagon doesn't make him mafia," you're not wrong, but this doesn't give him a reason to do this as mafia. AlphaZero not switching to sandroba didn't change the fact that sandroba was going to get lynched. In contrast, if AlphaZero switches to sandroba, he avoids all the knee-jerk "you didn't vote for mafia so you are mafia" scumreads. That's generally well worth it.
Sure, AlphaZero
could have realized he should bus too late, and
maybe thought it would look too suspicious to switch votes late and decided to deal with the knee-jerk repercussions, but.... why?
The point though is, AlphaZero as mafia doesn't gain anything by any of this. He didn't really attempt to defend his scumbuddy sandroba, and he didn't get any town credit for bussing. I don't think any of this is alignment indicative at all.
If you want to scumread AlphaZero for being wishy-washy on flipped mafia sandroba, this makes more sense to me. I don't think it's super strong or anything, but I think it's at least a reasonable argument that you can make. I don't think that you can conclude anything from AlphaZero not ending up on sandroba, however, because AlphaZero and sandroba (and presumably also mafia #3) didn't try to defend sandroba.
I'm not trying to bash you for being wrong, my point is, I think it's distinctly possible (in fact, I think it's extremely likely) that AlphaZero is simply town and was wrong day 2.
I don't think the argument for scumreading AlphaZero due to not voting for sandroba holds any water at all. I don't think the argument for scumreading AlphaZero for going back and forth on sandroba is very strong, though it's at least got a little merit. With those things being unclear, I think AlphaZero's day 1 was a very strong indication that he is town. So that's how I am reading him. Sure, he did a bunch of stuff that's not alignment indicative, but that's not going to change my townread because it's not alignment indicative.
EPT
