Sweet Summer Mafia - Page 19

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Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 06:40 GMT

#3741

On June 13 2024 15:28 Mocsta wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 13 2024 15:18 Trfel wrote:

On June 13 2024 14:53 Mocsta wrote:
this was a good post to me,- much more thought provoking than i expected

as i have written a response.. i've gone.. damn. thats stupid from me and very fair points from you.

what can i say. anti-town award for me?

On June 13 2024 13:28 Trfel wrote:
Mocsta, can I break this down with you?

If there is something I am misunderstanding, please point it out. It is very possible that I am missing something.

You think AlphaZero is mafia for how he posts about sandroba but doesn't end up voting for him, right? Basing this off of post #3410.

Mostly correct. Paraphrased its about the byproduct of AlphaZero posts/votes create voting optionality, and applies whether voting a town or scum flip.

Yes, town change reads and votes (I'm proof), and typically new information is the driver (or being stupid for me). Whereas, pursuing optionality, in particular without applying new information, is mafia mindset.

The push-pull was about demonstrating through AlphaZeros quote history, the optionality kept open on Sandroba over 72 hours and 120+ posts that presented during that time; and bear in mind, this is for an F-Tier hard scum read so i attribute the optionality as opportunistic and therefore scummy.

Why would AlphaZero, as mafia, share so many suspicions about his mafia partner sandroba and then not bus him when it becomes obvious sandroba is being lynched and sandroba gives up? (I mean, good mafia play is to bus him before it becomes hyper obvious, but at the very least he should do it at that point) It looks to me like your argument is that AlphaZero is mafia because he set himself up to bus sandroba but then just decided not to. I could buy this if there was any hope of keeping sandroba alive, but there clearly wasn't?

We could be viewing two sides of the same coin?

For example, in poker, there is the mathematically optimal way to play a hand; yet, that doesn't gurantee you win the pot. Somewhere along the lines, other human factors come into play. Some players, like yourself & Rayn veer towards the analytical approach to the game; others like town!sandroba veer towards the human intuition side, and then occasionally you get muppets like me that create lots of noise.

BTW, my argument is that AlphaZero used push-pull to save Sandroba and maintain distance.. I read all his pushes as soft and I personally view AlphaZero push-pull defense of Sandroba as preventing him from bussing if that was a desired outcome - i.e. to jump in the last 5 hours would be sus.. and perhaps only rayn can resolve this via discussions from mason log

Like, why does this make AlphaZero mafia when what you (Mocsta) did, defending sandroba and looking for alternative wagons, presumably comes from town? How is what AlphaZero did any scummier or more mafia motivated than what you did?

yep, after the fact, my play is anti-town.

I reduce this to:
1. not trusting town, that they would come together and stick. like, what game locks in wagons 5 hrs before lynch.
2. being overly concerned about last minute majority flips

i mean, if you examine the whats, perhaps there is an argument of similarity much like what you have poited.

I know my why, i shared it. you can choose to believe it or not. It has become anti-town, and thats not the same as mafia up-side either.

The elements I have identified consistently across 72hrs with AZ, for me, if i implemented that optionlaity opportunisticly, the why is mafia upsides each and every time.

Yes, it's possible that AlphaZero is mafia and realized too late that he should bus sandroba and then decided it would be too suspicious to switch and just ended up not bussing him. I think AlphaZero is clearly a better player than this, but I can't entirely rule out the possibility.

Even if you think "well Trfel, someone's gonna say that same argument you just said about why mafia would bus and how AlphaZero not joining the wagon doesn't make him mafia," you're not wrong, but this doesn't give him a reason to do this as mafia. AlphaZero not switching to sandroba didn't change the fact that sandroba was going to get lynched. In contrast, if AlphaZero switches to sandroba, he avoids all the knee-jerk "you didn't vote for mafia so you are mafia" scumreads. That's generally well worth it.

Sure, AlphaZero could have realized he should bus too late, and maybe thought it would look too suspicious to switch votes late and decided to deal with the knee-jerk repercussions, but.... why?

The point though is, AlphaZero as mafia doesn't gain anything by any of this. He didn't really attempt to defend his scumbuddy sandroba, and he didn't get any town credit for bussing. I don't think any of this is alignment indicative at all.

If you want to scumread AlphaZero for being wishy-washy on flipped mafia sandroba, this makes more sense to me. I don't think it's super strong or anything, but I think it's at least a reasonable argument that you can make. I don't think that you can conclude anything from AlphaZero not ending up on sandroba, however, because AlphaZero and sandroba (and presumably also mafia #3) didn't try to defend sandroba.

I'm not trying to bash you for being wrong, my point is, I think it's distinctly possible (in fact, I think it's extremely likely) that AlphaZero is simply town and was wrong day 2.

I don't think the argument for scumreading AlphaZero due to not voting for sandroba holds any water at all. I don't think the argument for scumreading AlphaZero for going back and forth on sandroba is very strong, though it's at least got a little merit. With those things being unclear, I think AlphaZero's day 1 was a very strong indication that he is town. So that's how I am reading him. Sure, he did a bunch of stuff that's not alignment indicative, but that's not going to change my townread because it's not alignment indicative.

i'm going to give you benefit of the doubt and unvote

i have considered a possibility that, in the same way, on d1, AZ couldnt write i was mafia, instead, accused of pushing mafia agenda. perhaps subconsciously he was hoping sandroba would be town (like i was) and MAYBE... that could be an internal resistance creating push-pull

my plan for today is read the sandroba cases, figure out whose i liked and understand the most and i will sheep them

queation.. in the same way that you believe scum!az should have bussed scum!sandro.

why would scum!sandro attempt to bus DMB?

how does this pairing work?

I mean if you're seeing something I'm not seeing, by all means please explain. I could also just be wrong about my townread on AlphaZero. I'm merely saying that I don't think the day 2 stuff with sandroba is a very compelling reason for AlphaZero being mafia.

Why would you care about who had the most convincing case on sandroba being mafia? In a world where sandroba is being bussed, which I find incredibly likely, it's to mafia's advantage to make a convincing case as they bus, no? In fact, they know they're making a case on mafia, so if anything that gives them a slight advantage compared to town?

If anything, you should sheep whoever contributed the most to getting sandroba lynched. That'd be more like, who voted for sandroba early and convinced others to join, or who was the tipping point, or something like that.

Personally I think you'd be much, much, much better off playing for yourself, and that would be much more aligned with a town mindset and win condition, but I suppose it's your call.

As for sandroba and die_meatbaby: sandroba voted for die_meatbaby at a point when only raynpelikoneet was voting for sandroba. At the point when sandroba did so, it's pretty obvious that the wagon on Vivax isn't going to stay around, which is where all the votes are, so there's a bunch of votes that are going to need to go somewhere. Assuming sandroba and die_meatbaby are mafia together, die_meatbaby isn't in a great spot, since not that many people townread her and I am voting for her. Sandroba also left himself in a spot where he could switch votes to raynpelikoneet or Koshi, which for a while seemed like possible wagons (raynpelikoneet moreso than Koshi in the end). I think it's maybe a slight indication that they aren't mafia together? But I don't think it is anywhere near ruling it out, I think a non-associative read on die_meatbaby has much more weight.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 06:45 GMT

#3743

scott31337

On June 08 2024 02:23 scott31337 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Possibly, but I'd like to know your reasoning for such.

On June 08 2024 02:33 scott31337 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Did anything else stick out in their filters?

Hypothetically if Sandroba was off the table, who else would you be interested in lynching?

On June 09 2024 06:25 scott31337 wrote:

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I haven't liked Sandroba from the start. Probably my #3 scum behind AZ. (Keis is 1st ATM)
(...)

On June 09 2024 06:54 scott31337 wrote:
The major thing(s) with Sandroba is -

Show nested quote +

And then went to

Show nested quote +

There was a post from Keis -

Show nested quote +

And there's been no Keisler posts from her second message to this

Show nested quote +

I just have no ideas of her thoughts besides lynch scott - maybe oats townlean and rsoul null.

On June 09 2024 07:50 scott31337 wrote:
I would be down for Sandroba as well but I don't think we got the bodies in the thread

On June 09 2024 11:07 scott31337 wrote:
Dangit

I still want AZ or Sandroba for tomorrow

Marv/Rayn wild card

On June 09 2024 12:57 scott31337 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Sandroba? AZ?

An experienced like rayn/koshi?

Alakaslam?

On June 10 2024 06:27 scott31337 wrote:

Show nested quote +

DMB and Vivax

I've seen two town bitch at each other and reminds me of such from the past

This quote is unrelated but I'm putting it here because I want to reference it later, deal with it.

Next is a list post with sandroba, Alakaslam, and AlphaZero as scumreads, and Vivax as town. Not going to quote it because it'd take up a lot of space but it's #2238 if you care.

On June 10 2024 11:22 scott31337 wrote:
I'm going to sheep your case Trfel.

I do want to hear Koshi's thoughts though.

(on Vivax)

On June 11 2024 03:36 scott31337 wrote:
Trfel I'm not voting for DMB

Sandroba or Slam. Sandroba did not win me over at all with their posting even if they "townread" me now.

I note that this actually looks quite good for scott31337. This was even before Koshi's vote onto sandroba.

But why does scott31337 drop a mini-case on sandroba (post #3354, at June 11 21:24 EDT) when there are already seven votes on sandroba? The only reason I can think of to do this is if (1) scott31337 wants to justify his scumread of sandroba or (2) scott31337 wants to look good when sandroba flips mafia. Both reasons make me inclined to think that scott31337 is mafia?

Conclusion

I dunno. It does seem a little suspicious that scott31337 was suspicious of sandroba day 1 but not willing to lynch him for quite a while (until it was most likely too late), but it's also reasonable that he could do this as town. Part of me wants to scumread him for having Vivax as town and three others (including sandroba) as mafia going into day 2 and then voting for Vivax, but idk. Scott31337 did say that he thinks the argument between Vivax and die_meatbaby was town vs town, and he put Vivax as town in his end of night post, but then said he would sheep my case. The thing is, what case exactly? I'd posted some reasons to suspect Vivax already, but that was six hours earlier, and it hadn't seemed very motivating to scott31337 at the time.

On June 10 2024 11:09 scott31337 wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 10 2024 05:02 marvellosity wrote:

On June 10 2024 04:58 Trfel wrote:
Vivax

Vivax seemed to scumread both scott31337 and Kelsi3r. He spent much of his day 1 trying to figure out which was the better lynch (while suspecting both). See these posts (for example) about his increasing desire to lynch Kelsi3r:

On June 09 2024 07:18 Vivax wrote:

On June 09 2024 07:03 Mocsta wrote:
I'm becoming more and more open to lynch outside kelsier

He doesn't looked bullied out to me as his tone is pretty consistent start to finish

I still think his tone specifically to me is more unhelpful mafia than town, however the nonchalantness is somewhat consistent even after which I am.imcreasingly.viewing as townie

...

I really don't want to vote Scott for mason stuff
Is there a case outside of that?
....
Rsoultin I will give sandroba a read

I think the opposite the less Kelsier does the more I want to lynch him.

Feels like a weird defense here if you don‘t have a particularly strong conviction outside of that.

On June 09 2024 07:51 Vivax wrote:

On June 09 2024 07:46 scott31337 wrote:

On June 09 2024 07:39 Vivax wrote:
I‘m comfy with Az taking the reins here. They seem competent and townish to me.

Them pitting Oats against me was a bit dickish tho

If you do this, He's going to want to lynch me and I'll flip town.

Only if you lynch him D2 is this a suitable outcome.

There‘s people I think are around but just choosing not to post. Mocsta and him would be my guess.

I‘m moving to Kelsier. He doesn‘t appear motivated anyway.

On June 09 2024 08:45 Vivax wrote:
What I like about scott is that he seemed pretty genuine as of late. He isn‘t really trying every trick in the book to keep himself afloat just doing his thing.

Kelsier might have given up as either alignment.

Then Vivax has this reason to vote for scott31337:

On June 09 2024 09:43 Vivax wrote:

On June 09 2024 09:19 scott31337 wrote:

On June 09 2024 09:04 AlphaZero wrote:

On June 09 2024 08:59 Mocsta wrote:

On June 09 2024 08:58 rsoultin wrote:

On June 09 2024 08:47 Mocsta wrote:

On June 09 2024 08:45 Vivax wrote:
What I like about scott is that he seemed pretty genuine as of late. He isn‘t really trying every trick in the book to keep himself afloat just doing his thing.

Kelsier might have given up as either alignment.

town can also not want to be mislynched.. is this 'effort'notion a scott meta thing?

at the risk of answering for viva

if scum's gonna keep posting they want to either

1) try to get the lynch off them
2) shit up the thread

or they just roll over

i guess there's the third option of trying to get more attention so it's off a scummate if you've got two scum up for lynch?

i wouldn't say that's what scott's posting looks like. guy's been scumread from minute 1 and still is just bebopping around

salient notion

alphazero - where does that sit with you?

Well he is trying to survive, to me he just continues to exhibit the traits that o find scummy and I outlined above. Says things and can’t provide foundations or reasoning that can really be taken seriously.

We can even contrast that with your own play, you have looked substantially more town aligned the more you interacted and explained thought processes and your reads have changed and grown as that has happened.

Scott’s reads haven’t changed and he hasn’t looked any better. That is classic mafia trait imo.

I favor Oats more than the last magical time you are making up. That's a change of read.
Rsoul is a little higher on my list as well.
Trfel isn't going to change much today unless he does something stupid.
What's there to change on DMB,sandroba, and Alakaslam? They haven't posted.
Marv isn't coming back tonight from his word.
Kelsi3r - nuff said
Mocsta - I still town read him even if he gets junk from other people. Is still thinking reasonable, unlike yourself.
Vivax - I wouldn't lynch today either.

On June 09 2024 09:38 scott31337 wrote:

On June 09 2024 09:33 Vivax wrote:

On June 09 2024 09:29 scott31337 wrote:

On June 09 2024 09:18 Mocsta wrote:
one underlying issue i have with scott is that

when he was getting heat and i backed him, he made some posts that soft buddied to me.. which i thought was completely reasonable if town.

my issue therefore is that, as my read with AZ has shifted and evolved, hes not paid attention (publicly at least) to it.. no comments or impact on scotts AZ read is very weird to me.

now scott says hes completely up to date, so its been read, and apparently not relevant - so again. i find this super super weird and struggling to identify how town would do that.

AZ is not the lynch today unless everyone expands their mind. So forgive me for not spending the energy nested into such.

But he's my #2 still - so help me out - maybe I missed a point of yours.

Excuse me but what do you mean by the bolded.

Town.

Yes. I'm town. But that doesn't answer the question.

If you're so convinced we should lynch AZ which I suppose you are by saying that the mind of town is closed, why isn't he in the list ?

And then this?

On June 09 2024 10:52 Vivax wrote:
Considering the time I‘ll just let Kelsier happen ig

He sounds so sad about lynching Kelsi3r, who he was very content to lynch for much of the day, and was getting increasingly happy to lynch until scott31337 did something that stuck out to him as especially scummy. This doesn't add up from the town perspective, Vivax ought to be at least content with a Kelsi3r lynch.

Then, Vivax has a series of posts after the deadline about scott31337 being town:

On June 09 2024 12:07 Vivax wrote:
Scott is never going to get lynched on D2, and he isn‘t going to get vigged either. Going by experience.

Doesn‘t have to be a bad thing but it means we look for 2-3 outside of him.

On June 09 2024 12:13 Vivax wrote:

On June 09 2024 12:09 die_meatbaby wrote:

how about giving a look on ninja rayn or az

Az lookedlike he was posting forcibly around EoD, rayn didn‘t make himself readable.

Townies can have reasons to refuse to be readable. To be honest everyone has good reason to refuse to be readable.

I‘d guess the masons of the day were rayn and Trfel.

The flip doesn‘t automatically make Scott more scummy, if you were town in his situation you‘d understand why, so look at those who think so.

On June 09 2024 12:17 Vivax wrote:
With the Kelsier flip and if he‘s town, Scott starts becoming useful to mafia.

On June 09 2024 12:35 Vivax wrote:

On June 09 2024 12:32 Mocsta wrote:

On June 09 2024 12:25 Vivax wrote:

On June 09 2024 12:18 Mocsta wrote:

On June 09 2024 12:13 Vivax wrote:
The flip doesn‘t automatically make Scott more scummy, if you were town in his situation you‘d understand why, so look at those who think so.

help me out, im being dumb dumb

the only reason i can see is this from marv
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/625928-sweet-summer-mafia?page=66#1302

like.. why cant mafia have wagoned kelsier to save scott equally?

i get in marv of rsoultin, he is expecting the most likely answer is double-town wagon; yet, why cannot it not be an effort to save scott equally?

It‘s beneficial to take sides as mafia here. Or maybe look undecided. They only have two buffets to choose from and don‘t have to be active so there‘s zero downside to being active, preferrably on the side of the one who‘s going to remain unflipped.

Without accounting for players who are time constrained or just don‘t care enough.

i see which feeds into my ongoing concerns with how the kelsi3r train was building

i dont want to blanket discard how d1 unfolded for you; heuristically for me, its really hard to not acknowledge the complexities of having 1/3 of town to barely post for the 24hrs before lynch. it makes it hard for me to then follow your interpretation.

i am in agreement with the other post that there should be options outside of scott tomorrow though.

Right ? Wouldn‘t make much sense after a majority decided to spare him.

My next favourite would be the rsoultin slot because theirs was one of the deciding votes.

Not necessarily to lynch but definitely to consider.

Which makes absolutely no sense given that he still strongly believes that scott31337 is mafia. How is not lynching scott31337, who is mafia, a bad thing? That's absolutely a bad thing! Vivax was seemingly frustrated that he had to settle for the Kelsi3r lynch instead of lynching scott31337, why is he suddenly accepting the "majority-decided" verdict of keeping scott31337 alive and why is that a reason to focus on other people instead?

It's not that what Vivax is saying is wrong necessarily, or in other words, it's completely fine to have alternative lynch options to scott31337. But from the perspective of someone who thinks scott31337 is mafia, and just missed out on lynching him, why is his focus on finding other people to focus on (besides scott31337) and what it means if scott31337 is town? Why isn't his focus on scott31337 being mafia? If Vivax was no longer scumreading scott31337 then this makes sense, but that isn't the case at all:

On June 10 2024 00:16 Vivax wrote:

On June 10 2024 00:14 Trfel wrote:

On June 09 2024 23:53 Vivax wrote:
I have a townread on dmb fwiw. She seems very relaxed tonally.

I‘d like a doc on marv.
I‘d like rayn to play the game.

I love GabeN

Is scott31337 mafia still?

I think so. Don‘t understand his post about AZ if he isn‘t.

The end result is that Vivax is very suspicious. There hasn't been the normal insightful thinking or tinfoil, he seemed very happy with the two wagons day 1 (scott31337 and Kelsi3r), despite the odds of both being mafia being quite low. I would have thought this was even more suspicious for someone with paranoia like Vivax, but instead he seems quite content with the gamestate.

For some reason it took me a long time to understand this. But having spent said time, I think it’s a good case

Hmmm

Maybe the fact that marvellosity flipped town made scott31337 reconsider my case? Or because I was asking for people to vote for Vivax. Both are plausible.

In the end I don't have any super strong reasons to think scott31337 is mafia. I also don't have any great reasons to think scott31337 is town. I'm inclined to lean town in the end because I think coming up with reasons to scumread people is much better than coming up with reasons to townread people (thus, no reasons to scumread = not mafia), and I'm hesitant to lynch him, but I absolutely could be wrong.

Note that this is ignoring the last few pages in scott31337's filter because for now, I am forced to assume that he was too drunk to think clearly when posting. Part of me wants to lynch him for this series of posts because it was really awful and I don't want this to be a valid excuse for getting out of suspicion, but most of me is fine to just ignore it.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 06:51 GMT

#3745

On June 13 2024 15:48 scott31337 wrote:
Trfel do you want to lynch me today?

Are you town?

Are you willing to vote for AlphaZero?

No, yes, probably not.

Please go to bed? I'm not going to respond to anything else you say until you get some rest.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:08 GMT

#3747

I'm trying to consider if AlphaZero could be mafia.

I think his day 1 play is a strong indication that he is town. But I can't rule out that he is just a really good mafia player. Thing is, if he's mafia, he put in a bunch of extra work day 1 purely so people like me would read him town for it?

But like... if he's mafia, he shot marvellosity, realistically I am the only other person that I think would put much weight in this. Would he really go through all that work just to pocket me? Maybe it's reasonable for him to think raynpelikoneet might think similarly? (that didn't happen of course but maybe AlphaZero thought it might?)

But if I throw that out, why is AlphaZero town? I'm not sure. His play is very logical, but he clearly knows what he is doing, regardless of alignment, so it's reasonable to think he can exhibit strong logical thinking even as mafia.

Ugh, the same argument I just used to say scott31337 is maybe town also applies here (if there is no reason to scumread someone, they're probably town). But AlphaZero is a high caliber player, maybe they're just good enough to make it hard to find reasons to scumread them and I'm just not able to see it?

It's a very tinfoily world. Discard a reason to townread someone, and then they are mafia only because they are a good player and therefore able to not give you reasons to suspect them

So I don't want to live in this world unless I absolutely have to.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:10 GMT

#3749

Don't worry Mocsta, I didn't have a reason to vote for sandroba. I was doing the thing I did with Vivax again

Key difference is that Vivax kept playing when there were votes on him. Sandroba didn't. Had sandroba shown fight and defended himself and worked to find mafia, I would have voted for someone else. As he continued to not do so, that told me he was mafia.

Very very slow to figure it out but better late than never I guess?

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:11 GMT

#3750

On June 13 2024 16:09 Koshi wrote:
I think the last 2 mafia are slam & scott.
But maybe not.

I can theoretically get behind Alakaslam being mafia. But why scott31337? Haven't you been reading him as one of your top towns?

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:15 GMT

#3755

On June 13 2024 16:11 AlphaZero wrote:
If i am mafia I shot two people who hard town read me.

Not smart.

Yeah there's also that.

I'm just in a spot where all my reads seem wrong, and you being mafia is a relatively clean explanation for that?

But I don't think it is very likely at all, just can't completely ignore the possibility. It's much more likely because I am off of my game.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:20 GMT

#3757

Can I just say:

If someone says they have a power role for no reason, when saying so makes no sense, they probably are joking? And even if they are serious, it's best to ignore it until later?

Just like you should keep discussing things at night?

And don't make associative reasons for people to not be mafia unless you are absolutely sure?

Gosh, when did I become the thread police

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:23 GMT

#3763

On June 13 2024 16:19 AlphaZero wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think your Scott read has just been wrong tbh. Game is really straightforward after that.

Ahhh but I keep looking at his filter and I don't know why he is mafia

Maybe my expectations are too low?

There's the opening thing with mason/whisperer
He accused you of being mafia for changing your reads
His case on you wasn't very good
Not re-evaluating

Are those the reasons? Or are there others? If it's easier to point me to a quote or a few quotes that's fine too.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:25 GMT

#3764

@Koshi, oh, that's really interesting. I didn't think about that.

Hmmm.....

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:28 GMT

#3768

Feels easy, three lowest activity players are mafia?

I mean sometimes it happens, but I think it's easy to arrive at that conclusion by finding bad reasons to townread strong mafia players.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:36 GMT

#3775

On June 13 2024 16:29 AlphaZero wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think mocsta is mafia, so there is the active mafia.

Was responding to Koshi, but fair. I'm genuinely shocked that Mocsta would give up his vote, that makes no sense at all for town and I could see it being a silly thing mafia tries so they have a "reason" to vote and no responsibility.

Unless he's joking and I fell for it ><

And yeah it's very possible I am just being really bad. Unfortunately it's hard to just get gud

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:41 GMT

#3778

On June 13 2024 16:40 Alakaslam wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 13 2024 13:15 Trfel wrote:
I'm honestly confused as to who even thinks what, it feels like everyone's reads have changed significantly since the sandroba flip. Maybe I'm the stupid one for not changing my reads tbh.

Side note, I don't find the whole "scott31337 slipped that die_meatbaby is town" thing very compelling. I think it makes sense from the perspective of someone who is (theoretically) town and is overconfident in pre-flip reads. As in, it matches the rest of the way scott31337 has played.

First question, why does scott31337 scumread AlphaZero and townread Mocsta? He posted some (imo weak) reasons. In fact, scott31337 literally says "I appreciate his attempts, but it's not a win over" when referring to Mocsta's case of scott31337's strongest scumread, AlphaZero. But he says these are the best reasons to scumread AlphaZero. Basically I'm supposed to believe that sscott31337 thinks that this case that he doesn't think is all that strong is the best case against AlphaZero, yet he's still extremely confident in AlphaZero being mafia? Strong enough to base the rest of his reads off of AlphaZero being mafia, anyway ><

Second point, sandroba voted for scott31337 early day 1 and left his vote there. However, sandroba didn't post from page 24 until after the day 1 deadline. I think it's quite possible for sandroba to vote for his mafia partner, and then something comes up and he can't change it, even if it's a close vote against a townie.

Third point, scott31337 voted for sandroba at 4:11p EDT June 10. He was the third person to do so (after raynpelikoneet and Koshi). Would scott31337 do this as mafia? It looks like it's Koshi's vote that directly prompts him to do this (scott31337 notes Koshi's vote at 4:10p EDT and then votes for sandroba one minute later). This is about halfway through sandroba's series of catchup posts. From one perspective, it feels a little early to bus, since sandroba is actually posting at this time, but from another perspective, it feels like a good time to get a vote down, one which he can move later if needed. But, did scott31337 set himself up to move? Scott31337 was scumreading sandroba, Alakaslam, and AlphaZero. He also said he wouldn't vote for die_meatbaby.

I actually think this (point 3) is a decent reason to townread scott31337. Sandroba (flipped mafia) was reading Koshi, raynpelikoneet, die_meatbaby, and Alakaslam as potential mafia. He later says that he would vote for any of raynpelikoneet, die_meatbaby, or Koshi. He doesn't suggest voting for Alakaslam at all. Scott31337 set himself up to vote for sandroba, Alakaslam, or AlphaZero. Maybe I'm overthinking it but if scott31337 and sandroba are mafia together here, why wouldn't they suggest lynching Alakaslam (assuming Alakaslam is town for the moment)? I just think it doesn't make much sense for mafia to walk themselves into voting separately or hoping that town randomly shenanigans onto the one scumread they have in common. Like, if scott31337 and sandroba are mafia together here, scott31337 saying he won't vote for die_meatbaby makes it extremely unlikely for sandroba to survive. Scott31337 actually re-evaluates die_meatbaby the next day, around 12p EDT June 11, and commits to not switching. To be fair, by this point there are a large number of votes on sandroba and sandroba stopped posting.

Maybe this isn't as strong as I thought. Maybe just a slight reason to townread scott31337. I do think it's not completely negligible though.

This has the ring of great wisdom

Glad you think so, I thought I said a ton of nothing

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:44 GMT

#3780

Is it bad that I actually kinda want to lynch Alakaslam because he said my own post sounded smart and I disagree? xD

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 07:47 GMT

#3782

On June 10 2024 12:02 Trfel wrote:

Show nested quote +

You can't honestly tell me you are going to read 111+ pages tomorrow? That's simply not realistic. Plus filters on top?

This is the kind of thing I find suspicious.
"sorry I've been inactive I will catch up now"
"I'll have more time tomorrow and will play properly"
"stuck at work, tomorrow I will be here"
"now I will have real time to play"
"sorry work was busy so I will go to sleep and reread the game tomorrow"
"I'll try more when more people are active"
"I'm sorry I didn't play yesterday due to work, I'll start playing as soon as the night phase is over"
"I'll post my scumreads before the night ends"
"oops my nap was too long, [random names of people who might be mafia with no reason]"
"I'll have a lot of time the next two days"
"tomorrow I will filter everyone and reread the game and post my reads"

When does it end?

@Alakaslam, I believe this is the best reason for die_meatbaby being mafia.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 08:03 GMT

#3797

Hm...

I have a vague memory that last time Alakaslam was mafia, he was much more direct. His posts would critique people's thinking and would contain reasons to suspect people.

Here, he's just commenting anything and everything, in fact more often than not it's not a reason to suspect someone.

Maybe this makes him town, because it's different? Or does it make him mafia, because he doesn't have a ton of thoughts about who is mafia? Or is it just a bad rationale because the vague memory is quite old?

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 08:04 GMT

#3801

On June 13 2024 17:01 Alakaslam wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yes because there are much better reasons to scum read me. Person who posts them gets the award of "this person actually reads and analyzes with heuristics and not pure meta" award

Unfortunately I am not perceptive enough to obtain such precious knowledge

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 08:16 GMT

#3809

I need to go to sleep soon. I will think about scott31337.

I guess it has seemed like he's been much more focused on getting AlphaZero lynched than he has been on finding mafia. Is this reasonable? In his eyes, AlphaZero is mafia because AlphaZero was scumreading him. But Day 2, when AlphaZero stopped actively pushing the scott31337 scumread, scott31337's view didn't change at all?

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 16:44 GMT

#3986

On June 13 2024 17:32 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Trfel why do you think youre not dead?

Hard to say exactly, I'm not very good at interpreting night kills to be honest. I wasn't expecting to die though, I'm clearly off my game and don't have the motivation that many other players do.

On June 13 2024 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Trfel thoughts on Mocsta?
Can you fucking see he is only working with whatever the thread sentiment is at times?

That.... wasn't my perception? I mean, sure, sometimes he follows the thread sentiment, but I think it would be hard for someone to never ever follow the thread sentiment? Can you be more specific about what you are seeing that is mafia indicative?

On June 13 2024 19:37 AlphaZero wrote:
This game is fairly straightforward from now on.

Mafia is in dmb/scott/mocsta with an outside chance of vivax.

Everyone else is much too likely to be town.

Probably fair. But also tinfoil, you know?

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 13 2024 17:54 GMT

#3989

On June 14 2024 02:50 Vivax wrote:

Show nested quote +

Maybe Trfel is mafia for that night kill.
Just so he could have something to laugh about.

I mean, if I was mafia I probably wouldn't have listened to Oatsmaster's plea here.

Probably.