MS Paint Mafia - Page 25

On May 13 2024 13:16 Trfel wrote:
Role analysis is confusing, an answer to raynpelikoneet's question would be very helpful here. My main reason to not lynch Jealous is that he was the first one to vote for Oatsmaster, who flipped mafia. Jealous voted for Oatsmaster at 7p PDT the night before the deadline (1p PDT the next day) (sorry for PDT, that's my time zone so I'm going to use it though). His last post before the deadline is at 9p PDT the day before the deadline. After that, he doesn't post again until almost 6p PDT the next day (five hours after the deadline).

The interesting thing is that the rest of the votes on Oatsmaster come after Jealous left the thread (in other words, Jealous went AFK, and then everyone voted for Oatsmaster). Obviously it looks good for him to vote for Oatsmaster since Oatsmaster was mafia, but I don't think this guarantees that Jealous is town. He could have easily been planning on moving his vote later and then either been away and unable to do so, or, when the wagon on Oatsmaster built up, just left it since he has the first vote and it's a solid bus.

Here's the thing though, the only real reason I have to think Jealous is mafia is because there was only one night kill, and Jealous claims to have shot Grackaroni. Pending the answer to raynpelikoneet's question, this just doesn't make a ton of sense to me if Jealous is town, because then I don't really know what mafia is doing. It's not out of the question that mafia is Chezinu or someone and he just failed to submit a night kill, he gets busy sometimes and has failed to submit night actions before. I just don't know if this is more likely than Jealous being mafia. I don't like not really having other reasons to be suspicious of Jealous. I'd feel really bad if we mislynched Jealous here just for that, since he literally did nothing wrong, he found valid reasons to vote for mafia and didn't do anything scummy or wrong.

I really think it's almost certainly Jealous or a Chezinu who didn't submit a night kill. Side note, Chezinu's vote onto Oatsmaster was the fifth vote, after me, Palmar, Vivax, and of course Jealous. I think it's reasonable to predict that Oatsmaster is going to be lynched at this point, so I could easily see Chezinu bussing Oatsmaster here. Chezinu voted for Oatsmaster at about 11a PDT the day of the lynch, and his last post before then was at 9p PDT the day before. At this time, Jealous had already voted for Oatsmaster, but no one else had. When Chezinu voted for Oatsmaster, he quoted Jealous's vote post, and I think it can be safely assumed that he meant that this is the reason why. But if Chezinu is town here, why did he vote for Oatsmaster at 11a PDT the day of the lynch, but not 9p PDT the day before? Jealous had already posted his post in question, therefore the reason is already there. Nothing else changed... Except that three others of us decided to vote for Oatsmaster.

It's very far from a clear-cut case, but with all that in mind I think it's more likely to be Chezinu. It's one thing (the lack of a second night kill) versus everything else, and even if that one thing seems pretty strong, everything else seems to point the other way.

All pending an answer to raynpelikoneet's question, of course.

One final thought, it's possible that the best strategy is to no lynch and trust that the five remaining townies can out-MS Paint the one remaining mafia player to get more information to settle things. While this doesn't seem like the worst idea ever, it's probably worse than just lynching (at least for now), and is definitely kinda boring.

On May 13 2024 05:56 scott31337 wrote:


If the player that wins this powerup is Town, they random one of the following:

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Jailkeeper (You may roleblock and protect one person from KP. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.)
Cop (You may choose a player to check their alignment. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.)
Vigilante (You may shoot one person. You have only a single shot. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.)
Vengeful Townie (Upon dying you have the opportunity to take revenge. You may designate one person to be shot. They will receive KP during the same phase in which you die.)

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If the player that wins this powerup is Mafia, they random one of the following:

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Frame (Once this game, you may target a player. The player will appear as the opposite alignment if checked by the cop. You may target yourself. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.)
Mafia Vigilante (You may shoot one person. You have only a single shot. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.)
Vengeful Mafia (Upon dying you have the opportunity to take revenge. You may designate one person to be shot. They will receive KP during the same phase in which you die.)
Roleblocker (Next cycle, the townie's action will be roleblocked. They will not be notified of this.)

---

To me it makes almost ZERO sense that Jealous got the Mafia Vig role and only made ONE shot and it was Grack. So he's almost confirmed town to me. What Jealous says above makes sense.

I got through more than half of rayn's filter and he's not the lynch for me today.
Jealous is off the table also.

Palmar - he votes Oats at 9:29 EDT - and did not post it in his filter - only the voting thread. He was the second vote on Oats.
Four minutes left -
"

I'll listen to reasoning, but... just doesn't make sense.

Trfel was the first vote on Oats and he really seemed inquisitive on me - which is a good thing.

That leaves Chezinu. He votes for Oats at 14:24 EDT. Only posts in the voting thread. His next message is a copy and paste of Jealous's case 14 minutes later. I may suspect Chezinu knows Oats is toast and tries to look his best. So I'm voting for him.

##Vote Chezinu

On May 13 2024 13:54 scott31337 wrote:
And that sounds just like the post after that. Did you read the whole thread yet?

On May 11 2024 03:38 Palmar wrote:
See what would’ve been really townie is if jealous had premade a bunch of images and the not posted them.

Also maybe just lynch Grack and Chez

On May 11 2024 05:07 Palmar wrote:
With the tiny amount of information in the thread at the moment I’m inclined to lynch into oats and grack and I kinda don’t wanna lynch Scott, truffle, rayn and Vivax. I need to make jealous do a little more to decide because pre-planned entries are for noobs and chez is well….. chez

On May 11 2024 22:43 Palmar wrote:
So I liked at least one post from Vivax Trfel Scott

Don’t wanna argue with rayn

Didn’t like a post from Oats, also kinda don’t like Gracks posts, especially the one whining people can’t read him.

On May 12 2024 04:54 Palmar wrote:
I can lynch grack as well

On May 12 2024 04:56 Palmar wrote:
No I think I'll stick with Oats, I still really dislike his page 1 filter.

On May 12 2024 04:58 Palmar wrote:
If Oats is town we just lynch Grack. If Oats is scum on the other hand, we lynch Grack.

On May 13 2024 16:38 Jealous wrote:
The crazy thing is at least one of you has to be town, it could easily be both, and at most one of your targets is scum, and both of you made such compelling arguments. I am too tired to paint or decide which makes more sense, but I will be back tomorrow. Props to both of y'all.

On May 13 2024 16:43 Jealous wrote:

And one of us showed up and made up a reason for why they did make the NK as town and the other is just not bothering to counter?