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On March 20 2024 11:19 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 14:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
OK I reread the night post and beyond as best I could but I'm not really seeing anything that directly addresses my question, since Palmar was town, why does DMB do what she did?
I'm not gonna argue she looks absolutely terrible yesterday, but it's mylo so I want to be certain of my vote when I place it. Rels please address why scum DMB does what she did when town Palmar was available for her to vote for and probably not end up in the spotlight the same way she is right now. Also does vivax flip change any of how you're reading?
I'm going to feel like I've committed a deep wound to my honor if I don't sheep Vivax like i said I would, especially after he died and isn't here to lead that lynch. Is the question, why didn't she push Palmar? My guess is that it was a play together with Jealous to appear like partners not really wanting to push each other. If that's true, that was really beautifully played
OK I can see this line of thinking, I can also see scum feeling the need to pull big plays as the game goes late.
I haven't been happy with DMBs posts today, I'm not gonna lie I had the same thought Jealous did regarding DMB's German post, tbh I'd put that in the same category as Jealous "forgetting" Koshi was dead in his meticulously color coded post flip post.
I have had a long as fuck day and it's going to be another long one tomorrow. I will also not be around for the end of day as I've got a flight tomorrow night. I am going to wake up and try to reread what's been posted over the last 24 hours and make a final determination at that point.
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On March 20 2024 11:31 Rels wrote:
And to answer JAT, I didn't see anything from DMB that couldn't come from scum. I disagree that the dumb tunnel and aggressiveness cannot come from scum!her, since she was similar in the other scum game she played
I also think Jealous is scum though, also didn't see anything that would have changed my mind, not a fan of most of his posts today, ironically except the ones on DMB (I guess it's easier when you have to case an actual scum ...)
Would prefer a DMB flip today, but whatever happens while I'm away tomorrow, I'll vote with the majority. I'll be around for the lynch, on my phone in the worst case
This post pretty solidly sums up my thoughts as well. I just can't decide whether a DMB or Jealous flip helps us more for tomorrow. That's probably what we need to focus on now.
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On March 20 2024 11:27 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 06:21 Jealous wrote:On March 20 2024 06:18 iamperfection wrote:On March 20 2024 05:48 justanothertownie wrote:On March 20 2024 05:41 iamperfection wrote:On March 15 2024 11:07 Jealous wrote:On March 15 2024 11:05 iamperfection wrote:
so it was tvt. So i still cant wrap around a scum rels doing that at the end right near the hammer. ^ Person who breathed the biggest sigh of relief in the room IMO. And do you think he may have slipped here too? How is this one a slip? To your other point - I also found that a bit weird. I would only breathe a sigh of relief if I'm town. Therefore he knows I'm town. You'd breathe a sigh of relief as either alignment because that makes your decision more likely to come from town than from scum (because it'd be fucking stupid as scum) and thus less of a reason to suspect/lynch you regardless of your alignment. Really weird logic there to justify the joke, so maybe good point in retrospect by iamperfection. The joke was fine IMO, but this new explanation doesn't make sense. If iamperfection is scum, he would know already that he'll gain that towncred sooner or later
I said the same thing immediately after too, I'm not sure how this could be interpreted as a joke without that context. How did you interpret it?
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On March 20 2024 11:19 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 14:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
OK I reread the night post and beyond as best I could but I'm not really seeing anything that directly addresses my question, since Palmar was town, why does DMB do what she did?
I'm not gonna argue she looks absolutely terrible yesterday, but it's mylo so I want to be certain of my vote when I place it. Rels please address why scum DMB does what she did when town Palmar was available for her to vote for and probably not end up in the spotlight the same way she is right now. Also does vivax flip change any of how you're reading?
I'm going to feel like I've committed a deep wound to my honor if I don't sheep Vivax like i said I would, especially after he died and isn't here to lead that lynch. Is the question, why didn't she push Palmar? My guess is that it was a play together with Jealous to appear like partners not really wanting to push each other. If that's true, that was really beautifully played
I was literally told by DP and Vivax that I basically am not allowed to push DMB. I've jumped through all y'all little hoops and still get scumread for it. Nice set-up.
Questions we should be asking ourselves are "Why was Palmar lynched over Jealous and DP?" I have the fortune of knowing it was TvTv? so it raises the question "was Palmar's death more valuable or viable to scum than DP's and why?"
With a 3-3-3 split and knowing that 2 town were on DP in myself and Vivax, if makes me wonder why just one more scum didn't want to make the switch. It would have been either TTSS or TTTS on DP (because DMB, while scummy af, is still officially a question mark). That means that even if DP flipped town and town decided to lynch everyone on the DP wagon in any order, it would be a guaranteed scum victory. However, scum wouldn't want to hammer DP in several circumstances which I'll explore tomorrow after I get some sleep and am not on my phone posting because i can't see both threads at once, but suffice to say there are a few scenarios and I think the ones where DMB is scum are more likely, but there is an argument for DP scum, too. For example, in some situations it would take two or three scum to hammer DP, but that would be too suspicious after Vivax made it 4-3-2, and that would be impossible if DMB was scum on DP in the first place and two of the scum were on me + Vivax
Anyway, I'll try to map it out tomorrow.
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and that would be impossible if DMB was scum on DP in the first place and two of the scum + Vivax* were on me.
^ EBWOP for clarity.
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Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow.
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On March 20 2024 15:48 Jealous wrote:
Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow.
The whole scum team outs themselves doing that.
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On March 20 2024 09:33 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 09:23 DarthPunk wrote:On March 20 2024 09:20 Jealous wrote:On March 20 2024 08:28 DarthPunk wrote:
Jealous have you got a POE of 3 scum reads that is up to date? Here's a possible DMB x JAT x iamp case: JAT x iamp: + Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 05:57 justanothertownie wrote:
I think I like the direction that seems to have formed of Iamp, Rayn, marv and to a lesser degree sandro as a council of sorts. I had at least 3-4 moments in the early pages where Iamp posted exactly what I was thinking at the time. Rayn seems reasonable so far (but him masoning marv is probably something he does as either alignment) and I agree that marv masoning sandro is a move that is more likely to come from town.
Would still prefer if people used the thread to communicate even though it would make catching up even harder. On March 05 2024 07:56 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 07:51 iamperfection wrote:On March 05 2024 07:46 DarthPunk wrote:
Does anyone know why rayn thinks I am mafia? Probably because you want to make vivax mayor. Which is insane imo we have someone who already made a terrible decision and you want to give said person more power. He probably thinks your smarter then that and concluded you must be mafia to not see that. ^ That would make sense. On March 07 2024 03:25 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 03:22 CopCake wrote:On March 07 2024 03:21 justanothertownie wrote:On March 07 2024 03:20 CopCake wrote:On March 07 2024 03:14 justanothertownie wrote:On March 07 2024 03:12 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 12:39 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 12:37 CopCake wrote:
So my theory is that Tfrel got lynched because mafia big boys are scared of him. He got lynched because of his end of day posts.I was about to swap to JAT and he basically claimed mafia ITT O_o Who are the mafia big boys who lynched Trfel though? My filter is there. Why are you asking me this? Because I thought you might enlighten me without me having to go to your filter. DP obviously. Who else? Iamp, Vivax, Palmar Ok. Vivax and Iamp pushed that for sure - I just don't think they are very likely to be mafia. Palmar was happy to sit on me through the whole thing. I don't remember him pushing Trfel. On March 08 2024 00:46 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2024 00:35 iamperfection wrote:On March 08 2024 00:31 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 08 2024 00:29 justanothertownie wrote:On March 08 2024 00:23 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 08 2024 00:14 Jealous wrote:On March 08 2024 00:09 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 08 2024 00:07 Jealous wrote:On March 08 2024 00:01 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 23:58 Jealous wrote:[quote] Updates from Oats' filter since the above reads list:2847: Voted JAT anyway despite townreading him, to give Trfel "time to play." Because of where the votes were, I am not gonna change alignments here, but it should be noted that Oats had JAT as town and Trfel as NA. 3414: "Jsl saying that koshi’s thing was a scumslip but DMB’s thing wasn’t a scumslip is super sus" 3861: "I’m just laughing at the jealous post completely accepting that he’s acting in an anti town manner because of “probability”" <- I don't think this is enough for me to assume they SR me but who knows. 3990: "For claim reactions, I think that the way jealous reacted felt very preplanned and lining up the mislynches, what do you think?" <- This is closer to an accusation IMO.* 4067: "Overall, it just doesn’t seem like mz has natural progressions and is not trying to find mafia" 4013: "If this means that you think slam is cop then yes I agree " So we have: Town:
Koshi
Iamperfection
Rayn
Palmar
Vivax
JAT
Alakaslam
NA:
DarthPunk
sandroba
Trfel
marvellosity
Hapahauli
ToTheStars
Rels
Scum:
Meapak_Ziphh
Jealous [?]*
Jacob
VE
DMB
CopCakeAlso: "I do agree that either both [ rayn and marv] are mafia or rayn is town." @Oatsmaster: Is this updated reads list of yours accurate? What would you change and why? Jacob is town, cop is town, tothestars is mafia. You are null, jat is mafia Updated list: Town:
Koshi
Iamperfection
Palmar
Vivax
JAT
Jacob
CopCake
Alakaslam
NA:
DarthPunk
marvellosity
ToTheStars
Rels
Jealous
Scum:
JAT
Meapak_Ziphh
Jacob
ToTheStars
VE
DMB
CopCakeCan you elaborate on the above changes? Old positions crossed out, new positions should be accurate. On March 08 2024 00:01 Oatsmaster wrote:
How did you get jat is town from my filter From this, quoted above in response to the original list: Oh sorry I misread but I think vivax is town now and jat is town now Oh that was night wifom, he’s definitely scum Alright. Also found your TTS reasoning above, so we can skip that one. 1. I'm guessing Jacob town because of the role claim, correct? 2. Why is JAT scum? 3. And why is CopCake town? I really don’t like the way he was absolving himself of responsibility on day 1 and sheeping marv wholesale while claiming marv wasn’t a townread for him. Today hes said twice now about the check possibly being altered but he’s seems to have said it just to say it without fully considering what the options are There are no options, Oats. If you are town you have been very unfortunate. Or slam is mafia, which I think is very unlikely. In each case, the correct play is always to lynch you today. The correct play is to lynch mafia. The man makes a good point. Such smart On March 07 2024 02:43 justanothertownie wrote:
Trfel (11): iamperfection, Alakaslam, Justanothertownie, marvellosity, Koshi, VisceraEyes, Vivax, Jealous, DarthPunk, JacobStrangelove, sandroba
I think this wagon is overall quite towny (both claimants, marv, koshi, iamp, sandro). The only player that really seems suspicious at first glance is VE. There is probably someone else hiding in here but the people on my wagon look markedly worse on average. Which makes sense since they would probably rather be on the townie that doesn't immediately flip. ^ This is just from the first two days and they are practically blowing each other. I'm gonna keep digging to see if there are any discrepancies but to my recollection it was never like they filtered one another or anything. Then there is the fact that they just both happened to switch to me and then say "ah yea won't be around much tomorrow btw." Like, yea, plausible, but could easily be a coordinated push that only appears whimsical. They also seemed to just give DMB a free pass way too often this game. Combine that with this: On March 06 2024 11:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
Oh sorry I misread but I think vivax is town now and jat is town now
Jacob more null slam town Town:KoshiIamperfection RaynPalmarVivaxJAT SlamNA:DarthPunk sandroba
Trfel
marvellosity
JealousMeapak_Ziphh HapahauliToTheStarsRels JacobScum:VEDMB CopCake--- So this is Oats' updated "read list." We know he was bussing DMB hard if it's scumgoon!DMB, which I think would make the most sense to be honest, as it would paint him in a really good light when she flips red, let him survive one day longer at minimum as framer. This would then make his town "reads" of JAT/iamp have a lot of value, and putting them with other confirmed town would give them good insulation. Let's not forget who voted for VE over Oats: + Show Spoiler +Day Two Vote Count
Oatsmaster (9): Alakaslam, Jealous, JacobStrangelove, Rels, Meapak_Ziphh, iamperfection, DarthPunk, die_meatbaby, CopCake, justanothertownie, ToTheStars, Koshi, marvellosity, JacobStrangelove, Alakaslam
VisceraEyes (7): Koshi, Oatsmaster, iamperfection, Vivax, Palmar, Alakaslam, Meapak_Ziphh, iamperfection, CopCake
Palmar (0): Oatsmaster, CopCake, iamperfection, JacobStrangelove, CopCake
Jealous (0): CopCake
justanothertownie (0): Vivax, Oatsmaster
ToTheStars (0): iamperfection, Oatsmaster
marvellosity (0): Vivax
die_meatbaby (0): Oatsmaster
VisceraEyes (0): iamperfection
CopCake (0): Jealous
Not Voting (1): VisceraEyes
With 9 votes, Oatsmaster is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Saturday, Mar 09 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Hint: It's iamp. Both of them were on TTS at one point. Iamp was moving his vote almost as much as Oats was. Iamp was on three different townies' wagons on the day of a red flip, and stuck to it in the end. Is this what you actually consider most likely here? Game is hard. It's one of the potential teams that I think is plausible. Don't think there is another duo that has remained so supportive and unquestioning of each other in the game to be honest. A DMB x You x someone team is also possible. After all, you did tell me that she was unassailable for an entire day cycle. You did survive a situation where you were at 3 votes and no one jumped on your wagon, and from my POV it was 3-3-3 TvTv?. You were the final jump to Palmar, possibly because jumping to me would make you look suspicious when I flip town while I was voting you, possibly because you thought I was more firmly in your pocket despite voting you. I guess since JAT didn't answer my question for some reason, I'll ask you: Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 08:03 Jealous wrote:On March 20 2024 08:01 justanothertownie wrote:On March 20 2024 07:58 DarthPunk wrote:
Then only thing that DMB's defense has done is make me think that maybe jealous is town over someone like Jat, who should be a better analyst than he is being here. Okay dude. If these 2 are both mafia I have been correct for a few days while you lynched several townies. Just saying. Just out of curiosity, in this hypothetical scum team, are DMB, myself, and another likely sane person coordinating all of this madness, or are we just letting DMB do DMB things and trying to react accordingly? I know that JAT's point was going against yours in this case, so if it makes more sense to you, try to construct a different DMB team. What do you think that hypothetical team is doing?
Both works in my head. The more or less sane person could be dp, but maybe you are with MZ and dmb is just doing her thing.
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On March 20 2024 11:31 Rels wrote:
And to answer JAT, I didn't see anything from DMB that couldn't come from scum. I disagree that the dumb tunnel and aggressiveness cannot come from scum!her, since she was similar in the other scum game she played
I also think Jealous is scum though, also didn't see anything that would have changed my mind, not a fan of most of his posts today, ironically except the ones on DMB (I guess it's easier when you have to case an actual scum ...)
Would prefer a DMB flip today, but whatever happens while I'm away tomorrow, I'll vote with the majority. I'll be around for the lynch, on my phone in the worst case
Understood. I can change back before I leave in the evening if nothing changes today.
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On March 20 2024 15:48 Jealous wrote:
Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow.
I think it is way more telling that there was 0 mafia on you in the end. They were all either on dp or palmar.
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I’m off to bed, but I’ll be around for the four hours or so before deadline.
My current thoughts haven’t changed that much. I think dmb is the right lynch.
I feel like we finally have a bit of direction and hopefully it’s not too late.
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On March 20 2024 20:07 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 15:48 Jealous wrote:
Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow. I think it is way more telling that there was 0 mafia on you in the end. They were all either on dp or palmar.
I am basically a guaranteed ML at this point after getting pushed for several days and scum lynching the people who SR me, so I think being spread or concentrated on one of the more prime lynches makes as much sense from an objective POV. But, assuming you're town, I can understand the WIFOM.
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On March 20 2024 21:49 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 20:07 justanothertownie wrote:On March 20 2024 15:48 Jealous wrote:
Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow. I think it is way more telling that there was 0 mafia on you in the end. They were all either on dp or palmar. I am basically a guaranteed ML at this point after getting pushed for several days and scum lynching the people who SR me, so I think being spread or concentrated on one of the more prime lynches makes as much sense from an objective POV. But, assuming you're town, I can understand the WIFOM.
If dmb is scum. I think there is a reason you could be town.
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Day Six Vote Count
die_meatbaby (6): Jealous, Rels, DarthPunk, justanothertownie, iamperfection, Meapak_Ziphh, iamperfection, Justanothertownie
Jealous (1): die_meatbaby, iamperfection, Justanothertownie, die_meatbaby
DarthPunk (0): die_meatbaby,
With 6 votes, die_meatbaby is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Thursday, Mar 21 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
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Maybe being inactive will work out better for us since being active has clearly not worked.
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I've reread the day so far and I'm staying on DMB. Scum is bussing at this point but we need a red flip in order to get to tomorrow.
Plus I agree with perfection, we've failed at every shenanigans we've attempted so far so I'm comfortable just staying the course right now and untangling the last two tomorrow.
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On March 20 2024 16:03 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 15:48 Jealous wrote:
Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow. The whole scum team outs themselves doing that.
Exactly, hence "still would have been sus af."
One of the scenarios I was thinking about yesterday was "if all three scum are on a wagon that has four people, then their victory is still highly likely as long as there are viable ML targets [myself and potentially DMB]." For example, Palmar was lynched, but we are trying to lynch two people who were not on that ML wagon. If all 3 scum were on Palmar, lynching outside of this pool is a guaranteed win for scum.
So...
The more I look at the votes from yesterday, I find it very unlikely that DMB and DP can be on the same scum team. DMB has no reason to bus DP here, he was written off as a non-starter by Vivax, I wouldn't have switched if she didn't, neither would have Vivax.
We also know that DMB/Jealous/Vivax can't be a team for obvious reasons, even though the three of us set up the 3-3-3.
I'm going to be analyzing a few possibilities using the following format, so I'll introduce it here.
Names to the left are the lynch wagons. Names to the right are the voters. Green = Town, Yellow/Orange-ish yellow = Unknown, Red = Scum. Underlined = due to be lynched. This is how the game state is to an objective observer as of right now.
Here is how we arrived at 3-3-3 in the first place, just to set the stage:
+ Show Spoiler +^ Wagon on me is forming. ^ DP is the first to come off the wagon.^ And here we are, in 3-3-3.
Because I know that I'm town, I'm going to be using this foundation for analysis instead:
So, this is how the votes went from my POV:
+ Show Spoiler [Jealous POV] +Vivax votes for DP. DP votes for me. Iamp votes for Palmar. DP votes for Palmar. Vivax votes for Jealous.
Vivax' vote is functionally irrelevant and we know he is town now, so I will stop including it in the analysis going forward. What is of note, however, is that it took both iamp and DP to hammer Palmar over me. However, I can only be scum with them if I had previously been hammered by both of them also. In essence, Iamp set it up so that it was 3-3-3 again, and DP drove the nail home. Vivax voted for me, but no one switched. If you think I am scum, wouldn't iamp/DP have to be scum also?
Compare the town pattern, which doesn't make much sense to me:
+ Show Spoiler +
Or this scum pattern, which makes more sense to me:
+ Show Spoiler +
Again, unless DMB was following their instructions and voted DP to spread themselves out and sow chaos, she is unlikely to be part of this team IMO.
So again, why did DP come off my wagon and go to DP? Why would iamp and DP hammer Palmar over me in the 3-3-3? They basically set it up so that no single person switching, from any wagon to any other wagon, would have changed the outcome. That's controlling the wagon. And they do it in a way that seems almost coordinated, throwing some obfuscation in there by DP voting for me first. Could it be to set up an ML victory?
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"However, I can only be scum with them if I had previously been hammered by both of them also."
^ Bussed
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/kGs9BJP.png)
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