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Aight. I think I'm a goner.
Even if I somehow make it out of this lynch, I don't think I'll live through the next one now that I'm pretty sure basically everyone is against me. I don't really want to spend the next 1-4 days fighting just to die anyway. I don't really blame people for being sus overall on me, I'm playing differently to last game for sure. But I am frustrated by the constant reading comprehension issues, the repeating the same questions, the ignoring my questions, the pedantry. You guys don't understand how I think, you didn't last game and you don't this game. That's fine but you seem to think you do??That's fine I guess it's just... Too much effort for me. I no longer have agency in the game, I'm not engaged, and I'm pretty bamboozled overall.
When I'm dead: I don't really have strong town reads. My read on Rayn was heavily based on some early interactions, and he hasn't really done much since then. It's stale and since everyone agreed he was town, I didn't really want more work on my plate filtering him when he was never going to be lynched.
DP I can never be sure because I haven't actually encountered his scum play in forum mafia and he speaks very highly of himself in this regard. He seems more agentic than last game where he was town (I don't see how Rayn think's he's current town boss compared to DP, Rayn afked the lynch and hasn't really done much more than perpetuate D1 convoes). I don't like how DP thinks I would go for policy lynches. In no game we have ever played together have I been the type of player to value points on the board over game state. DP, you realise what you're expecting me to want to do is bolt face turn 1 in an FFA right? Right?! I don't really see this as something he could possibly expect from me. I always play for control first every single time.
MZ seems townish but has difficulty understanding other points of view. If someone disagrees with him they're stupid dumdum. He felt this way last game too. MZ, you don't understand what I'm saying, and you're super motivated to twist it into contradiction.
Town is about to be 6-3. I stand by my read on CC, it's the best case. When you see I'm town, also make Vayo answer the question regarding their baseless reads. I'm also suspicious of Marv because he just doesn't seem active enough now he's free. Any other strong town player can't keep themselves from engaging. DP has no time and yet somehow his filter is enormous. I don't know Marv well, but his actual content posts are minimal within a filter barely over two pages long. When I subbed in last game, I felt I had a lot more to say than Marv does now.
Slam is... less than last game. He's just doing less. I have no idea why people have strong ideas about him... actually that's a recurring issue with you lot, you've normalised baseless reads.
Good luck town whoever tf you are <3
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I gtg, here's my take on vayo who I'm voting
I'm going to vote Vayo and not just because my survival depends on it. This is how I see them chronologically:
1) They lurk
2) I refuse to policy lynch them
3) They finally give reads after the lynch
4) The reads have very little justification. Spefically, Hap and Marv have poor jutsification.
5) I ask them to expand on their read
6) They ignore me
7) Other shit happens, I get overwhelmed and leave
8) They begin to suspect me based on me leaving, when in fact I am absent, after I tried to engage, and they ignored me.
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But the fact that this game is really hard I think points to a mafia in the Marv/Rayn slot. and I guess Rayn think the same but the Marv/DP slot, and Marv will probably think the Rayn/DP slot.
This is exactly what I was thinking reading on my phone (I can only read on phone, so can only post when I have access to computer).
If we have Marv, DP, Rayn (lol at DP pretending he thinks he's not as good as Rayn and Marv), there is no way a non-lurky mafia goes this long without getting spotted. I think they have an "S-tier" player able to smooth the course for them. I haven't filter dove but having read Marv today I feel better about him than before. Rayn is hard to read because his bluster feels meh but it always does.
I'm going to try and get into this again. I'm kind of one day ahead of the rest of town knowing that if I'm lynched next the game is 3xlylo.
Why is everyone town reading Slam? I don't get it. Is it just that he's not engaged and so therefore town? Because that's super lame (of Slam if true).
Also I can't remember who (DP??) but someone said LS is 99% town and that doesn't make sense to me. He's not 99% town. He was on death row, and if red, he made the same play he did last game (claiming blue) but this time no CC. It's pretty clear he decided coming into this game he was upping his posting and resilience so this does not clear him. Listen to the way he tells people he's resolute in not backing down, that's a decision he's made not some organic feel he's developed. He's claimed blue so yeah maybe don't lynch, but I don't see any way that he's confirmed town given we don't know the setup.
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Yeah but explain why he was all the way at 99% (if that was you).
Because you're skittish af second guessing yourself every which way and 99% is super duper high.
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LS where are you mate?
Marv if you show me why his recent posts are towny I'll listen. I don't read them that way but he's lazy tunneled on me (no conviction/curiosity, just cheering against from a quick filtering). It seems to me like he feels pressure to think something (ANI), and his tunnel is what he feels obligated to do. I don't think this makes him red because this is a doozy of a game and it's got us all stumped, but it doesn't feel towny.
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On June 14 2023 16:06 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2023 16:05 TankTopTiger wrote:
Yeah but explain why he was all the way at 99% (if that was you).
Because you're skittish af second guessing yourself every which way and 99% is super duper high. it's hyperbole. Can you focus on important stuff please
That's fine. You've made me roll my eyes too with policy gate, let's not fight.
IMO people are saying too much dumb shit like "99%" when they don't mean it, and that makes it hard to find scum who similarly are throwing out empty reads.
So I'm going to ask for clarification and you can be annoyed but it's better if you just answer and move past it. I felt disempowered at what felt like everyone evading me yesterday, so I'm not letting people get away with not answering anymore.
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DP I just said he claimed blue so not lynching. I also explained yesterday that I wasn't trying to lynch the blue role. I was super clear. But he's not confirmed town and we are going to need him to be talky talk by lylo which is almost certainly going to happen. So I need people to stop treating him like confirmed town just because we're not lynching him.
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Because people are suspicious of me for not magically solving the game like last game when this game is harder and nobody else is solving it either. The game is hard because we've got too many people refusing to play the game and instead trolling or hiding behind a blue claim.
I think for me, in this game right now, the only people I can possibly catch are CC, Vivax, and MZ (if red). DP, Rayn, Marv all feel above my paygrade, and the rest aren't giving enough information. It's going to be 6-3 tomorrow and I think that will be leaving us with a scum Marv/Rayn/DP vs. the town Marv/Rayn/DP.
Of the three within reach, I obviously think CC is reddest but I haven't closely read anything by her in like 24 hours. So we need Chez, Slam, LS, and myself to stop fucking around.
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Has Rayn's vote on Chezinu been explored. I was just comparing his filter to last game and found this:
On May 23 2023 21:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2023 21:39 marvellosity wrote:On May 23 2023 21:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 23 2023 21:32 marvellosity wrote:On May 23 2023 21:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 23 2023 21:29 marvellosity wrote:On May 23 2023 21:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 23 2023 21:23 marvellosity wrote:On May 23 2023 21:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 23 2023 21:16 marvellosity wrote:
[quote]
Tell me what the point is then You have not really done anything and for sure someone has said something smart already, you haven't even nodged on anything. Youre for sure a "slow" starter that excels at the eod(1) but so far it has been nothing when i at least you should have had something (more) to say. How many times do you reckon you have said this or something very close to this to me? Probably a lot, but it still stands a point though. Come on you know how mafia games work. If you think noone has a point on anything or has a point on something just say it. If I were forced to vote now, which thankfully I’m not, I would vote DP as the read on MB smells of TMI. You really don't think Koshi's case on her has any merit? I didn’t say that. But I can also think of many plausible interactions in her/Vivax friendship outside this game which could lead to her saying those things as town. Don’t you agree? I know it is possible, i just don't think it is plausible. If it’s not plausible, why are you not voting for her? I dont vote unless i feel like i am sure at the time, i guess you missed that on meta 
So Rayn believes it's unlike him to vote on people unless he's certain at the time. His vote on Chezinu was wildly thrown out, and he changed his mind 1.5 hours later. I think people have talked about this vote but I can't remember reading any satisfying resolution to the line of questioning.
If you haven't answered already Rayn, wtf was up with voting chezinu?
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Dude I'm not fixating. I literally said it was fine and moved on because you answered. WTF?
"fixate"
Your answer was that it was hyperbole. I wasn't rejecting your answer, I was saying it's stupid for us to foster the environment in which we just allow ambiguous shit go. So you can roll your eyes, but it's better to just answer than kick up stink.
The final para was a roadmap for how I want to actually resolve shit going forward.
Unless you feel you didn't answer? In which case now I am interested in what your real answer is if it's not hyperbole?
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Has Rayn answered why he went on Chezinu so fast and then jumped off? Both actions are hella ambiguous to me for someone who only votes when they're certain.
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On June 13 2023 03:23 raynpelikoneet wrote:Whoever said MZ is town because he cared about the lynch, is not making a very good read. MZ's targets were LS and Vayoletta. We know Ls is like 99% blue, so unless MZ is mafia with Vayoletta, this is very safe thing to do to "look like caring" when noone is on the line from mafia team -- and multiple people had even said they are not up for policy lynch. Show nested quote +On June 11 2023 10:41 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On June 11 2023 10:41 Hapahauli wrote:
I really dislike that this game is just a shadow of the previous game. Feels like i'm just missing half my brain. Well we've got 15 minutes, DMB, DP, Vayoletta, or LS. Show nested quote +On June 11 2023 10:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On June 11 2023 10:42 TankTopTiger wrote:
Not gonna lie, having good town activity does actually make policy more appealing. But no I value the early information over it. If we policy, we're only getting the info mafia want us to have.
I am open to lynches on DMB, CC, and LS. Possibly Slam or Vivax too but unless someone makes a banger case in the next 10 minutes I'd have no conviction for it. I would rather policy. Worst thing that happens is Vayoletta flips town. If we don't policy, Vayoletta gets modkilled and we potentially mislynch a townie and lose 2 instead of worst case scenario 1. In between here LS claims. Show nested quote +On June 11 2023 10:49 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
LS... sigh. OK doubling down on a policy now Now what is this?? His other lynch target drops a blue claim so he STARTS DOUBTING the only viable lynch in his mind ?????? Or is there something i am misreading in this post lol?
See and here too. Why are people just believing the claim straight up? Last game he claimed cop, pretty sure no CC, and he still went down as red. Why is the exact same scenario playing out except this time he's 99% blue according to big boys DP and Rayn? (minus hyperbole, 99% still means strong read).
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@Marv
Last game you said that vivax becomes very clearly town if the game goes long enough. Has it gone long enough? Is he clearly town in your opinion?
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So if there is another blue role, they sort of "know" or have reason to consider LS red, even if they are not themselves tracker?
And in that position (and I'm not claiming this), they know he's mostly gimped and they may not want to claim based on the likelihood that they've correctly guessed the setup? In the meantime, they get to take their actions and still can claim against him down the road?
Him being blue is based on seriously not much and I'm getting heaped on for not assuming him town yesterday. I was almost lynched partially based on not assuming him town.
You set it up so that if someone did hang on to their blue role, they wouldn't be believed if they counterclaimed him later. Unless I'm missing something, both you and Rayn were being stupid on this.
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...or malicious.
Only mafia (and town LS) know whether LS is blue. So while it's very abstract for town, for mafia it'd be really clear that if they can make a mislynch happen against a pending future counter-claim, they are another day ahead of where they would otherwise be, plus free blue.
@Marv
Am I being crazy? This assumption came out of thin air and is bad right?
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On June 14 2023 10:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The reason why i am not more vocal against this lynch is because in my world exactly one of MZ & Vayois mafia.
So are you deep on MZ now? I just quick filtered you and it didn't feel like you were that into lynching MZ?
Why is MZ red? Just based on his aggression levels compared to last game?
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On June 14 2023 17:46 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2023 17:32 TankTopTiger wrote:
So if there is another blue role, they sort of "know" or have reason to consider LS red, even if they are not themselves tracker?
And in that position (and I'm not claiming this), they know he's mostly gimped and they may not want to claim based on the likelihood that they've correctly guessed the setup? In the meantime, they get to take their actions and still can claim against him down the road?
Him being blue is based on seriously not much and I'm getting heaped on for not assuming him town yesterday. I was almost lynched partially based on not assuming him town.
You set it up so that if someone did hang on to their blue role, they wouldn't be believed if they counterclaimed him later. Unless I'm missing something, both you and Rayn were being stupid on this. It’s not fucking important if Rayn or I were being stupid unless you think we are both mafia together.
Kinda weird that both of you did it though right?
In your shoes assuming town, I might feel dumb, but I'd probably be asking why someone else made the exact same mistake?
I haven't ruled out you're both mafia together, nor am I assuming it. I just think it was a stupid/boldscummy thing that two otherwise strong players did. Bonus points I get to shit on Rayn for partially basing his read on me yesterday for it.
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Okay fair enough. I want to hear Marv and Rayn on it, but I'll leave you alone with this one.
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Oh and DP is you're towm make a night dump please. I know you usually do but I think this one is important. I don't really want to talk about my reasoning rn but I think you'll be the NK if town.
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You could have left that last statement out and tested me on it MZ.
It's not clear to me whether they skated D1. It was a chaotic lynch. My money would be on that they didn't, because I find it unlikely LS, CC, and DP are all town. We shot with a flak cannon and it is just unlikely that no mafia were clipped at all. But DP did his chaos roulette thing, and I'm not sure how familiar people are with that, so whether or not they felt the need to actually step in is... Wifom basically.
D2 they breezed no question. Without having actually sifted through the votes, I think there would be more scum on my wagon. No shade on Vayo, but I wouldn't be surprised if people feared me late game more than Vayo who nobody has meta on and was mostly lurking/absent and giving unfounded reads. I pushed four cases last game and three were red. Regardless of whether that was lucky or not (it was), scum team would see me struggling early and seize the opportunity to not have to find out whether I can reproduce it.
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EPT
