TL Endures Mafia II - Page 10

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raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 12 2023 23:29 GMT

#1425

Vivax, for how long do you think you're gonna stay awake?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 12 2023 23:34 GMT

#1427

Ah okay, so no brainstorming much, since i leave work in ~4hrs. :/
I would have love to, since you're the only person currently, aside from LS who i can with almost full confidence say is town.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 12 2023 23:40 GMT

#1429

DP/Vivax - townreads to a lesser extent. I don’t really know what Vivax is on and my brain hurts, so likely town. DP has been the town leader (sort of in rayn’s absence a little), I didn’t understand why he was getting votes d1. Good play around the lynch. Read on Copcake feels genuine.

This particularly bothers me a little bit. One of the best posts last game from marv was answering to "why would mafia try to lynch Vivax so hard D1?" with "because they can, and after D1 Vivax becomes very quickly very obviously town and mafia can't lynch him anymore".

It bothers me because i don't know why marv is not able to see that Vivax is quite obviously town. The read here in particular seems very half-arsed considering how Vivax has played this game.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 12 2023 23:42 GMT

#1430

On June 13 2023 08:38 DarthPunk wrote:

Show nested quote +

You walking back your town read on me rayn?

I don't really have any good reasons to think you're town other than your eod1. I am trying to figure out if it's possible you do that as mafia.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 12 2023 23:47 GMT

#1434

On June 13 2023 08:46 DarthPunk wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm going to choose to interpret this as respecting my scum play rather than thinking I am shit at being town :D

Yes ofc. You don't have done anything scummy, except for maybe going way too soft on TTT. But we'll see about that.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 12 2023 23:49 GMT

#1436

On June 13 2023 08:45 CopCake wrote:

Chezinu: Chezinu is always a wild card, but his vote on rayn from last day was riperino, he was being nice to dmb like “I will stop the troll for you” but when she died he wasnt sad, he was like yes! Another blue! Ahahahahahha the irony.

TTT: I think he is puppeterin DP. “DP, dmb is using nai on you”, I mean, this is a little of tinfoil but what if you also got that she was blue? There is that chance. You played with her and instead to see DmB in DP’s eyes you went full severe “she is scum” when generally you try to see both sides. (from last game)

Do you realise that Chezinu's top mafia read is TTT?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 00:21 GMT

#1457

On June 13 2023 09:05 DarthPunk wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yeh and vayoletta was a suspect.

But we could just be getting snagged here, and I won't consider this as a reason to lynch you unless vayoletta flips red.

Arguing about this is useless. It was perfectly clear TTT considered Vayoletta / marv policy lynches and didn't want to policy lynch. Regardless of if YOU think they were policy lynches or not, he thought so. It doesn't make him anything.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 00:36 GMT

#1459

Yes but you have absolutely no way of figuring out if that's the case or if he genuinely dislikes policy lynches. Unless you can ofc find a game(s) where he is pro-policy lynches, then you'd have an argument.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 01:45 GMT

#1476

On June 13 2023 10:38 DarthPunk wrote:
Can anyone link me to the other site Vayoletta plays?

I don't know any. Only finnish site and games are like 5yrs old (and in finnish), i havent played with him elsewhere.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 01:59 GMT

#1478

Pretty much no meta. I think i have played with him two or three games where i have been town (and followed one). Every game i have super mega epic scum read on him from the start and every game he is town. Definitely no meta, lol

Generally he is more active, but I don't think activity is alignment indicative for him. He strikes me as a person who wouldn't be "scared" to play as scum, while i have never seen him play scum.

His handle is a variant from his original nick he uses when we play Terraforming Mars, he changes it as a joke based on what we talk in discord channel ^^

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 02:26 GMT

#1481

On June 13 2023 11:15 DarthPunk wrote:

Show nested quote +

I love terraforming mars. Have you played ark nova? It reminds me of it some how.

Nope. One person in our group has it (irl-group) but we haven't had time to play it (we have combined ~300 different board games i think

)

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 02:34 GMT

#1484

I don't really know. If i had to guess right now i would say Vay and marv, but i am no way too sure about that.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 02:38 GMT

#1485

My biggest fear is that both of you and marv are mafia. It's not impossible given how marv treats you <-> me. I don't understand how you are "more townie" than i am, since we have had basically same reads aside from Cake. You having been more "thread boss" shouldn't mean shit.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 02:39 GMT

#1486

Also his Vivax read sounds like "i wanna say vivax is town but don't listen to Vivax just pls ignore him".

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 03:50 GMT

#1492

On June 13 2023 12:48 Chezinu wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 13 2023 12:37 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Does this post agree with itself TTT?

On June 12 2023 12:42 TankTopTiger wrote:
A bit disorganised at this point, reading through all the posts since #30 atm, I'm up to #53 so I'm biased towards happenings within that frame.

I just spent a lot of time inside my head on you DP. Real spooky. I thought that a red DP would see the difference between DMB last game and this game, and know it meant blue. Then they could lead the mislynch, but have meta from previous game on leading mislynches. Bonus points for backing away from it at the last minute by reading them green (ad lib). But it was Rayn that pointed you in that direction, so that play doesn't work out unless redDP is very fortunate and just had this play fall into his lap (I don't think Rayn's suggestion was red at all). There were some other things. Your reactions have felt artificial twice to me - one was in response to CC, can't remember the other. You being onboard with policy feels irrational but I'm not actually sure on your position on that and WW may have softened you up.
But overall it's too much reach, so I'm back to treating you as green based on the overall pro-townliness of your play. Your read on me is exactly what I would expect and I can't argue against it. I'm not as engaged in poor information environments.

Rayn is green.

LS is weird because I think he decided at the start of the game that he was going to play differently and so my main reason for giving him the benefit of the doubt feels artificial. Someone said at some point that he feels very in the moment and I agree with that. He also seems to come across as artificial whenever he thinks he should be providing an anger response (congruent with autism claim). So I sort of just want to leave him and see where he takes it for now.

I still see CC as red. I don't really want to engage with her because she counter-tunnels and shits up the thread leaving everyone confused. I don't think there's anything she could say that would change my mind, but she also hasn't really done anything since that alleviates or intensifies my suspicion. The read is stale but it's still my firmest read.

Overall, I think town have been eating town a lot, but also in many directions. This sort of environment is something I wanted at the start of the game (not the TvT thing, but the diversity of opinions thing as opposed to last game which felt sychophantic to me from many). This pushes me in the direction of thinking that mafia are more passive, so toward Vayo, Marv, and Slam.

You said CC is stale but how is it your firmest read when you say you're thinking mafia are more passive?

Let's put all the policy lynch stuff from D1 aside, would you vote Vayoletta today after the last 36+ hours of thread progression?

On June 12 2023 16:07 TankTopTiger wrote:

On June 11 2023 03:33 Vivax wrote:
Probably town:

- Hapa (attitude mostly, like a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh)
- Marv (decent followup to bugs bunny intro, aligns with Hapa in some aspects)
- Rayn (I don't think he'd scumread Chez for his vote on me as mafia and would rather go along with it comes to mind as a reason)
- LS (Christmas tree salience recycled first post + I kind of agree with Slam on his initial analysis at this point.I think he'd have folded and fell over by now as scum)
- Vayo (weird gut reason, seems familiar idk how)
- Cop (tonally seems like annoyed town to me also #hashtag has me pocketed so congratz if scum)

Not sure, could murder:

Chezinu, Slam, DMB, MZ

Want to murder:

DP, TTT

How did you have reads on Marv or Vayo? These seem like really weak reasons to give someone town points.

Ok I don't disagree with you.

Your posts are structurally almost identical to the last game but something still feels a little off to me and I think it's because you're still stuck on CopCake who I've been mostly green on so far and I feel like you're dancing around calling vayoletta scum even though you were one of the leading reasons that lynch never got off the ground. I think if you spent more time on your other reads and less time on CC I'd be more inclined to townread you again but until then it feels like you're using the CC tunnel to deflect/avoid other reads.

I don't think I want to lynch you today. I want you to help me lynch Vayoletta

This is the way.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 04:43 GMT

#1502

Alright, here is why this case

On June 12 2023 22:27 TankTopTiger wrote:
Okay this is just going to go on forever with you getting more and more pedantic, and we're still a way off lynch anyway.

The case is:
(1) CC made a blind read on Rayn early and based her worldview off it
(2) CC is not paranoid when she should be
(3) CC is tunneling with confidence she didn't express last game until much later
(4) CC hasn't pushed anybody but the people that question her (OMGUS)

I'm gonna leave it here for now unless you have anything but nitpicks and telling me to read entire other games when I'm struggling to keep up with this one.

is made by mafia. I have numbered the reasons TTT gives for Cake being mafia and i am going to address them separately.

(1) "CC made a blind read on Rayn early and based her worldview off it"
This point on principle makes sense for someone being mafia. However there is a huge problem with me actually believing TTT believes this. Early on he seems like he is actually trying to make sense of Cake's read on me, he talks with me about it, and this is what he ends up with:

On June 09 2023 19:21 TankTopTiger wrote:
You two knowing each other would explain a lot. The alignment read on you too.

On June 09 2023 19:22 TankTopTiger wrote:
Right yep okay (congratulations!)

That piece of information basically resolves all my concerns regarding copcake at this point.

On June 09 2023 19:30 TankTopTiger wrote:
All her actions that are questionable to me revolve around you, so your relationship is an explanation shared among all anomalies.

e.g. she reads you as town for no reason => except she's your fiance and so your relationship plays an enormous part in how she interprets your actions and her trust in you, probably more than anything visible to me in game.

At this point i tell TTT that i don't remember a single game where Cake has read me town when i have been town. He responds with:

On June 09 2023 19:43 TankTopTiger wrote:
That does make her reading you as town 2x weird.

If you get repeatedly burned, you don't speak well of the fire.

I don't understand how it makes it "2x weird" because at first it wasn't weird at all. Way of an overstatement, which i would not coming from a town who was just convinced of there being nothing wrong in Cake's read on me. Moving on...

On June 09 2023 22:16 TankTopTiger wrote:
For me, the main thing is why you have a town read on Rayn when that contradicts your meta of suspecting him. This meta is demonstrated in obs QT for endurance II, is evidenced by Rayn's report of your usual MO, and is expected based on your match history together of him being scum often (betrayal breeds suspicion not blind trust).

All this other stuff is squabbling compared to that. IMO your answer to this question will likely decide whether you live to see the night.

into:

On June 09 2023 23:02 TankTopTiger wrote:
@Rayn & CC
I don't think it's plausible that you are both red so I'm going to trust you both when you say it's reasonable for CC to trust Rayn in this game. I'm trusting you two to know each other better than I know you. CC isn't completely off the hook with me, she's still probably most red, but not deep red like she would have been if Rayn answered differently.

I'm gonna go to bed, I expect tomorrow we can resolve these claims about lying etc. with some slower posting if need be.

At this point there is simply no other reason for TTT to read Cake red than Cake's read on me!!!! He agrees with us that it's at worst NAI for Cake to have a town read on me, but Cake is STILL red. Absolutely fabricated read!

Almost anything else related to this isn't important anymore. There should simply be NO WAY TTT reads Cake mafia for this reason based on what he has said in thread regarding it. There is one point though. Since TTT is basing the read on Cake on what rayn says (lol), Cake answers TTT's concerns about it providing meta of Cake <-> rayn "dynamic:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 12 2023 19:24 CopCake wrote:
I was mafia in this game and rayn was town, I won as mafia. It is a small game so it would be easier to read:

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/563528-im-a-cop-you-idiot-round-2

On June 12 2023 19:45 CopCake wrote:
In this game I was town, l didnt call rayn mafia, in fact I called him town.

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/560300-holy-guardians-cpt-3

For this, TTT answers the following:

On June 12 2023 22:15 TankTopTiger wrote:
If it's a lie take it up with Rayn. I don't read outside games I've played it's too much work. He said it, it made sense given he's been rolling scum a lot, and it was corroborated by obsQT. That's what the read is based on.

Even if it isn't true, you still just flat-out assumed he was town and that's really bad unless you've established it as your meta and you haven't.

So okay, for real... TTT's case on Cake hinges ENTIRELY ON CAKE TOWNREADING ME WHEN SHE SHOULDN'T! Cake provides HARD EVIDENCE saying otherwise and the guy DOESNT EVEN CARE TO LOOK AT IT!!!!!!! I mean like for TTT's case this is the ONLY way Cake can EVER defend herself and prove TTT wrong, and when she tries to do that, the dude just says "fu i dont wanna read that". This is simply 100% mafia talking. Always 100% mafia.

(2) CC is not paranoid when she should be

I don't understand what this is about at all since i can't see any reference to this in TTT's filter. I can only assume it refers to point (1) so basically nothing new here.

(3) CC is tunneling with confidence she didn't express last game until much later

There is huge problem here. Noone will never ever "play the game" same in obs than they play when they are actually in the game. I mean, do i even have to go into why this argument is absolutely retarded and fabricated and noone can ever think "you are playing differently than you were obsing" as town?????????? There are many points where TTT uses "but you did this in obs and youre not doing the same now", it's just completely unreal, a town player will never ever think anyone plays the same they obs a game, fucking 100% fact.

(4) CC hasn't pushed anybody but the people that question her (OMGUS)

First of all, it is more likely for a townie to tunnel / suspect someone who calls them mafia, because they factually know that person is wrong (not necessarily lying but at least wrong). For a player who knows they are town, scumread on them ALWAYS looks bad, that's a fact. Marv did it last game (not tunnel, but similar). I have probably done it many times. When there is suspicion on you, when you are town, you want to clear the suspicion. In this game Cake has tried to do so, probably not that well, but still tried to do so. If we assume Cake is town and she is trying to clear the suspicions on her (aka posting her old games etc), if the counter to that is "nah im not gonna look at it, too much work, you still scum", what would YOU do in that situation? Because i would tunnel the shit out that mafia shithead. It's not OMGUS when the reasoning for the read is absolute garbage.

Another thing regarding this, is that what has TTT himself done other than pushed Cake as mafia for these reasons he shouldn't even believe in? Let's see:
- Waffled on DP all game, always ending up on light green on him (why the hell waffle even, DP is pushing exactly same stuff than him most of D1?)
- Questioned almost conf town LS why he townreads his own townread (really??

)
- Wanted to read marv / Vayoletta, instead of reading got into some random stupid argument with DP
- Some random questions for some random other people that never lead anywhere

I believe in do as you preach. People may have very different opinions on what makes people mafia, or what makes a good case. But they still always believe in their principles in scumhunting and follow them. If you think something is universally scummy (let it be whatever), you don't do it. The only exception i have ever come across here (aside from random bullshit trolls like kushmasta -- i mean in real mafia players, which i consider everyone being in this game), is MZ, which makes it usually impossible to read him.

Nevertheless, TTT is definitely not doing as he preaches, since basically everything "relevant" he has done in this game is tunnel Cake, even when he has been given hard evidence that should be making him think otherwise. I would say it's a tunnel when you just skip the provided evidence and end up in same spot you were before, or even purposefully refuse to even look at the evidence.

##vote TTT

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 05:02 GMT

#1504

On June 13 2023 13:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I am hurt to be catching random strays in your analysis though

What do you mean?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 06:21 GMT

#1509

Now, who else is mafia?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

June 13 2023 06:30 GMT

#1510

1) Alakaslam -- town, easily "catchable" by Chezinu unless both mafia
3) Meapak_Ziphh -- seems town today
5) marvellosity
6) Vivax -- 100% town
7) DarthPunk
8) Chezinu -- thinks TTT is mafia, seems like hard read, town
9) TankTopTiger -- scummy scum
10) Vayoletta -- scum most likely
11) CopCake -- town, also bs case from mafia against her
13) LightningStrike -- tracker

so which one? retake from last game, except for one is mafia?