[M][N]MiniFeast 1.5

Pandain made no posts in between these posts.

Very similar to posts that Eywa- made last game as town.
But this didn't come up last game at all? Feels like Eywa- is self-conscious about not giving reasons in this game, which wasn't at all present last game, despite playing in a very similar way.

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It feels like Eywa-'s scumread and vote on Eversince is just following the momentum of everyone else, the reasons and actual strength behind the read comes out later. Eywa- even admits that Eversince is just the most likely lynch out of a narrow pool. Side note, what is Eywa-'s lynch pool anyway? They only mentioned four townreads, which leaves four remaining players, I'd say that's quite a wide lynch pool, instead of the narrow pool Eywa- claims...

But Eywa-'s scumread on Eversince increases in strength from "Eversince is one acceptable lynch out of a group of acceptable lynches" to "I'm lynching Eversince no matter what," and the only reasons cited are all from posts and events that happened before the first post in question.

raynpelikoneet

Why does raynpelikoneet say this? This is post 94, what did Grackaroni say by this point? This is Grackaroni's only post of substance. And to be honest Grackaroni doesn't actually say anything at all. So what was this read about again?
Again, a random townread. What had Conversion posted by this point?Just one thought really. At least it had some actual conclusion this time. But it seems to be a weird trend of easily giving out townreads for seemingly really weak reasons.Gonna store this right here, and see how raynpelikoneet follows up on it.More random townreads... Feels like a little bit of buddying?This is post 217. What did Conversion post in the meantime?
Really seems to be the reason that Conversion is so town is for his push onto Eversince. I think it's weird that raynpelikoneet townread Conversion so hard for this when many other people struggled to get much of a read on Conversion at all (clearly all the townies on the Conversion wagon, of which there are at least three, plus Holyflare, who said Conversion was bleh). I may revisit Conversion's read later to really dive into raynpelikoneet's play.Defending Conversion and softpushing Eversince...What? Where did this come from? Post 295, Grackaroni posts of substance: Put these quotes in the wrong order, but oh well. Second quote first. It's a fair point that Grackaroni makes, when I eventually saw it I addressed it, but not awful thinking I suppose, at least it's original. But even raynpelikoneet himself was questioning this point, see here: So then it's got to be mainly the first post, right after which raynpelikoneet posted about Grackaroni being town, so that makes sense. And that post is.... (drumroll) resisting raynpelikoneet's push on Eversince? Fair enough, that was where raynpelikoneet was going at the time. But then does this change when he votes for Eversince and is convinced she is mafia just after?

Interesting post. Tracking raynpelikoneet's read on Eywa- is probably a really interesting task... for another time (I'm sleepy) (second note, decided I will look into this tonight after all: calls Eywa- mafia in 374, lets Eywa- "off the hook" in 667). But this shows that he's not really thinking of Grackaroni being mafia, so at least there's the followup we were looking for previously. Note that he later transitions to "letting Eywa off the hook," would be worth looking at exactly how that happened.Finally raynpelikoneet explains his townread of Grackaroni. Now we can see how it matches with his earlier posts. What did we say earlier:

Question: This is Grackaroni's only post of substance. And to be honest Grackaroni doesn't actually say anything at all. So what was this read about again?
Answer: Apparently raynpelikoneet liked the thought process of this post. Issue here is there wasn't much thought process, it was just "yeah, maybe, but it's old, maybe"

I'm too lazy to dig up the quote, but we concluded earlier that the main reason he upgraded this read was the push back on raynpelikoneet's own reason to suspect Eversince. Maybe that was a wrong conclusion, it must have been the other post? So the one on me (Trfel), where raynpelikoneet himself provided counterevidence for it. I don't really get this read.

Next thing of note is raynpelikoneet did absolutely nothing at End of Day. Nothing. He didn't defend his townread in Conversion, he only tried to be suspicious of Grackaroni, his other townread. He didn't tell people to switch off. He didn't show why Eversince was still mafia. Even Holyflare reacted more to what was happening than this. It really doesn't feel like he cares about who gets lynched between his townread and his scumread. Quite suspicious.

Then he starts scumreading Grackaroni, reasonable. Makes a long post on suspicions of Holyflare, but says he wants to lynch Eversince first and that Holyflare can't be mafia if Eversince is mafia and he's much more suspicious of Eversince. Could just be a coincidence.... could be that the rest of us were all starting to be suspicious of Holyflare at the time and raynpelikoneet didn't want to look off by not suspecting him and then night killing him.

Going into End of Night 1, raynpelikoneet posted reasons to scumread Grackaroni, and repeatedly said that Eversince and Grackaroni were his scumreads. So why does he get so mad at the vigilante, Pandain, for shooting Grackaroni instead of Eversince? Even Holyflare was saying that Grackaroni was a better lynch than Eversince and raynpelikoneet had no comment. It doesn't make sense for raynpelikoneet to be mad here, Eversince can still be lynched, one of his highly scumread targets who was likely to die anyway got taken out, raynpelikoneet shouldn't be mad if he is town.

And that's the end of the filter. Wow, tired. Gonna condense it and see what we ended up with.

Pretty early on into the game. Post 61. What had I posted by then? Really just these two posts:andAs biased as I am (I do love being townread), honestly seems like a pretty easy and substance-less read. But let's see how it gets followed up.This is post 104, what else had I posted by now? You can look at my filter for yourself, but the answer is a lot of posts explaining my townread of Eversince. Kinda understandable that she would pay more attention to reads on herself, but this still seems suspicious, giving such a strong townread when I've only provided one read. Feels like a bit of TMI. I remember she explained her townread on me later, let's see how that matches what's happened though. Also, I think her reads on other people might be a good indicator of if these easy townreads are characteristic of Eversince's play, or if this just happened because I was townreading her (I know I'm more likely to townread people who townread me, as much as I try to fight it).Hm, I've only made one conclusion.This makes a little more sense. I know Eversince values getting people to talk and getting the thread moving, especially early on, and that is something that I try to do as well. Still suspect but slightly grounded in reality.

Fair, even if I don't necessarily agree with this being super suspicious I understand why it could seem that way to someone. The real question is, is the followup there?The same read as previously shared, really.That makes a lot more sense.And after a bit of discussion:This is good follow-up! Continued to talk about the Pandain suspicion, then brought it up to Pandain, they talk about it, and are able to reach (to some extent anyway) a resolution! Feels like trying to figure out alignments to me.Continuing to follow up, moving towards a tentative town read on Pandain it seems due to lack of mafia motivation and similarities to Pandain's previous (town) game. Makes sense, even if I don't entirely agree with the mafia motivation point.And Jockmcplop makes a solid point, about the mafia motivation for Pandain's play versus the town motivation. Eversince takes note and is suspicious of Pandain again. Once again this makes sense, but is the follow-up there?And a few posts about actively trying to avoid talking about Pandain due to being tunneled on town Pandain the previous game. Makes sense, understandable.Fairly accurate summary.

Non-commital, bleh. But again, what is the follow-up to this?Makes sense. That's a valid point, and something worth being suspicious of.Is this really a lynch-worthy reason though? Worth being suspicious of but I don't feel it's lynch worthy at all. Hm...And a few other posts saying similar things. But it seems like Eversince is noticing this suspicious pattern (saying one valid thing and leaving) in Conversions's play and is suspicious of his play as a whole because of this pattern, which makes some sense (see here).

Hint of TMI, but it's not really a townread, it's just a refusal to lynch Day 1. Really it feels more like Eversince is trying to keep her options open. But overall it's an understandable viewpoint IMO.Decent followup, makes sense and is true to what Eversince said earlier. However, she keeps her vote on Eywa-, who she is heavily scumreading at this time. Makes a lot of sense.Followup makes sense, could still be mafia setting up tentatively for an easy mislynch though.

Post 357. What had Holyflare done to warrant this? A point on Pandain, a point on Trfel, a point on Eversince, then a push onto Eversince for the Holyflare mafia meta thing. Seems a bit weak to suddenly jump from a null/afk read to a townread, almost feels like she is trying to appease Holyflare by praising his play and townreading him. Hm...Fair enough.Not sure exactly why, but there was definitely some discussion here, it makes some sense.

Fair. This is post 384, before Eywa- posted their reasons for scumreading Eversince. This read makes plenty of sense.
When Eywa- does post their reasons for scumreading Eversince, Eversince addresses those reasons, doesn't like them, and votes for Eywa-. I don't feel like diving into it, you can start here if you would like to do so. I don't feel like this is terribly alignment indicative for Eversince either way.