Most people here haven't played with Annul. He doesn't play much these days. I've played a game or two with him, and I know some guys like HolyFlare, Palmar, Rels, marv, Grack, Vivax, etc have been around enough they likely played with him as well. Anyone else claiming to have played with him or to know his meta is likely talking out of their ass.
ok so Xatalos when you said "heard about Annul's reputation" what exactly did you hear? of course he hasn't been around since the End of D1 Flip so... but like this is the money question then right???
On June 17 2017 08:12 sicklucker wrote: its really weird that mafia shot hf tho. esp since i blatantly said I was shooting him
Nobody would believe you if they have played with you
still if theres even a chance it makes it a pretty bad nk. esp since im town and hf played really bad. Of course you dont know im town and dont have that information
in a situation like this this means we should think (to some extent) about what Mafia wanted to silence. Don't autosheep the reads of the dead player but if he made a case and then died before he got a chance to push it, IMO it is worth at least reading the case and considering it. whatever you may think of "hf played really bad" he is now confirmed town so we know his heart was in the right place if nothing else
On June 17 2017 08:16 darthfoley wrote: Meh shooting town!HF and town!Koshi is pretty optimal but takes some balls considering you'd imagine a doctor might save one of them.
Anyways yea not having a vigi shot is frankly surprising. We must have a lot of investigative roles. Don't claim early D2 and kill activity tho
On June 17 2017 08:17 disformation wrote: hmmm... yeah weird. also just realized. no vig. no saves on koshi/hf either? weird.
other possibility here, if hf was in fact playing bad, it's possible a vigi shot him, and the mafia shot was on someone else and saved by a Doctor, or Mafia KP (which is subject to RB according to the OP) was stopped by a roleblocker, and a vigi shot HF? Alternatively, the vigi and mafia BOTH shot HF. There are a lot of possibilities here so we can't automatically assume "weird" or "Mafia definitely shot HF"
however, we can assume HF is town since we have seen his flip and know taht he made his cases in good faith
Koshi's "last scum list" is 9 people in a game that currently has 19, but that could still have some value. But I'm not really concerned with scum lists as much as I am with major cases. The scum list lives on, but if they had some unique insight (assuming, again, they weren't universally townreaded) then this would be an explanation for the nk
On June 17 2017 08:16 darthfoley wrote: Meh shooting town!HF and town!Koshi is pretty optimal but takes some balls considering you'd imagine a doctor might save one of them.
Anyways yea not having a vigi shot is frankly surprising. We must have a lot of investigative roles. Don't claim early D2 and kill activity tho
Endorsed
It could be that the vigi shot overlapped with the mafia shot.
yeah i realized this and posted a correction before you posted this post because I am 2 fast 2 furious 4 u
On June 17 2017 08:12 sicklucker wrote: its really weird that mafia shot hf tho. esp since i blatantly said I was shooting him
Nobody would believe you if they have played with you
still if theres even a chance it makes it a pretty bad nk. esp since im town and hf played really bad. Of course you dont know im town and dont have that information
in a situation like this this means we should think (to some extent) about what Mafia wanted to silence. Don't autosheep the reads of the dead player but if he made a case and then died before he got a chance to push it, IMO it is worth at least reading the case and considering it. whatever you may think of "hf played really bad" he is now confirmed town so we know his heart was in the right place if nothing else
well mafia killed two ends of the spectrum. koshi was right about me and white knighted me. at the same time they killed hf who completely didnt play day 1 except to spam the thread that i was mafia. So they killed my biggest defender and my biggers enemy.
But I do know im town and all he did was yell to lynch me and ignored the day one lynch. so ya I can say he played bad from my pov (knowing im town) of course you dont know this
opposite ends of the spectrum maybe if the only thing we care about is reads on sicklucker lol
I mean fwiw it's not like Xata has had amazing thread presence since the end of D1, or explained what his meta on Annul is. These seem like reasonable reasons to me. But when it comes down to it, it's a big game and we have to lynch SOMEONE and there's nothing wrong with a Xata lynch
On June 18 2017 06:00 beentheredonethat wrote: Wait he claimed cop?
Yeah and there was no counter claim. Really strange.
possibly beacuse it is a shit claim??? like assuming xat is maf and there is another cop, why would said cop claim d2 over this. better to lay low and get more checks
On June 18 2017 06:29 ruXxar wrote: SL is like a 80% chance of being mafia. While xatalos / disfo is like a 50/50.
I rather go for the safer option.
50/50 in the sense of "i'm going to count the number of possibilities and not weigh them by probability, then naively say they're all equally possible" sure. On the other hand there have been games where vanilla townies claimed "I'm a cop with a red check" on day 2, and this red check was on a town vigilante. So, y ou know, "50/50" is really not the way to look at this
On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote: the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim
I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point)
how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy
The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check.
1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch
So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives
not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here
1. mafia game is a game of educated guesses 2. mislynched happen because we screw up, it's not an act of God i mean wasn't it literally a better option that one time the cop was a VT fakeclaiming a redcheck on a vigilante? like, not that long ago? and youw ere in that game? are you REALLY not sure how it's a better option, possibly?
On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote: this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here)
TRHAT DOES MATTER
THAT LITERALLY MATTERS
BECAUSE THE GUY HE CLAIMED A REDCHECK ON WAS ALSO NOT RED
On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote: this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here)
This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing.
One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check"
one day
ONE DAY PERHAPS YOU WILL REMEMBER BUT THERES NO WAY TO KNOW, LITERALLY NO WAY?? NO RECENT CASE STUDY WHERE LYNCHING THE COP WAS THE BETTER IDEA? YOU CAN'T EVEN THINK OF ONE?
On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote: the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim
I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point)
how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy
The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check.
1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch
So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives
not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here
Where is the difference between losing a VT and an outed cop?
An outed cop can be protected at night, is a confirmed town and an enforced mafia target.
A vt is a vt.
I'm convinced.
##vote disfo
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGH
On June 18 2017 07:19 beentheredonethat wrote: here's how it's going to go: people will lynch xata in spite of me saying "hey, guys, un-cc'ed blue". Then, he will flip blue, and people will scumread me for defending xata, potentially tmi'ing here. disformation will be lynched next day and will flip red.
On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote: the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim
I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point)
how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy
The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check.
1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch
So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives
not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here
Where is the difference between losing a VT and an outed cop?
An outed cop can be protected at night, is a confirmed town and an enforced mafia target.
A vt is a vt.
Think about it with a little more effort. If we lynch Xatalos and he is mafia then disfo is also basically confirmed town, can be protected and is an enforced mafia target. As long as scum has a roleblocker (which is very likely) there is 0 difference.
On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote: this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here)
This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing.
One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check"
one day
It isn't. But you need to consider the circumstances and this claim is incredibly fishy.
Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him? now it's more due to the claim and apparently everybody's fine with it.
if everybody's fine with something, it's probably scum.
On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote: this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here)
This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing.
One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check"
one day
It isn't. But you need to consider the circumstances and this claim is incredibly fishy.
Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him? now it's more due to the claim and apparently everybody's fine with it.
if everybody's fine with something, it's probably scum.
Seriously? Maybe because if we do what you say we lynch a townie, mafia survives a day and in the best case the real cop gets outed on top of it. Seems like a very good trade off compared to just going down without all of that. In cases like this there is often an uncontested wagon on mafia.
Why do I have to explain basics like this...
Wait.
"If we do what you say we lynch a townie." - TMI. "Mafia survives a day."
And how is it the best case if the real cop gets outed for town?
This sentence only makes sense from mafia perspective.
wat
On June 18 2017 07:25 beentheredonethat wrote: ##vote Chezitwo
yep.
waaaat
On June 18 2017 07:25 beentheredonethat wrote: Now that's a slip
On June 17 2017 19:28 Xatalos wrote: Eh. I haven't been able to really keep up with the game so well up to this point, so I'll just say it: I'm the Cop and I decided to check disfo last night. He returned Mafia.
I was so close to claiming Cop several times last EOD, but managed to barely hold it in, because I wanted to use my power at least once. Luckily it paid off big time.
Obviously believes that the risk of being mis-lynched/shot N1 was worth it for the complete 'chance' to hit the lottery with Disfo mafia result. Ok, let's see what he does with it.
On June 17 2017 19:30 Xatalos wrote: One Miller already flipped so I suppose there could be another. Still, the odds are heavily in the favor of disfo being scum.
The next post, "possibilty if Disfo's not scum though"?
On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote: Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos.
Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead.
Heres the thing.
Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum.
Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.]/red]
"If Disfo flips scum" Again with this trying to distance from the fact that Disfo might actually not be scum. Second bit is even more damning. If you are a un-cced cop why the hell would you use previous arguement "i didn't want scum to shoot me N1" if you are just going to make let the town waste the mis-lynch on you (Who you should be screaming yourself confirmed town) STILL? "Oh, I didn't want mafia to shoot me, but if town mis-lynches me as long as they still lynch my check tomorrow it's ok." Like wtf? Instead we get 1 dead cop at lynch. Then we get two dead townies in N2. Instead of one dead scum at lynch.
On June 17 2017 19:51 disformation wrote: mh actually i dont think a framer would frame me. or a cop would check me over like tw or one of the inactives.
Yea I'd think the only realistic option would be that you're a second unaware Miller if you're town. Usually there's 2 of them from what I've seen. The odds are low though, like 10% or less. So I'm content our best bet is to just lynch you.
More like 1:19 odds. So less than 5%. "I'm CONTENT"?? Why the hell are you not yelling from the mountain tops that this dude is scum yet? Why do you ignore the fact that you claim a vig would be better off shooting into the in-actives to hopefully hit mafia blind. But you just "had a hunch because Disfo voted you" so you didn't check one of the '?' marks yourself with your check. Harder to call in-actives mafia than someone half the thread has at somepoint thought about the possibilty of him being scum? Nah, let's ignore that though. You didn't mind if you died first? Would that have been the same if you missed mafia here? You would still be #1 lynch today.
On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote: got any crumbs? why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case.
I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way.
Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky.
I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead.
nonoonno you always shoot the close counterwagon to scum. you cop check the inactives. hard to read. low volumes.
Not really. The lurky players are just a detriment at LYLO anyway, so it's better to kill them off immediately. Whereas somewhat active,[red] but not widely townread players are likely to live until LYLO but it's often hard to tell their alignment so checking is optimal.
So you know there is a possibilty of you dying N1, You are 100% dead N2. Better check the active guy we could figure out by lylo instead of the players you just said would need checking. Yep, that makes perfect sense.
On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote: got any crumbs? why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case.
I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way.
Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky.
I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead.
So, are you going to solve the game today?
Because you put us in a very inconvenient position. Your claim is very suspicious.
Worst comes to worst, disfo is just a free lynch D3. I don't terribly mind that outcome since I'm dying soon no matter what.
Considering that, I think I'll have some time today to read the game so I can try to leave a legacy.
Again we get a dead cop, mafia get to shoot whoever instead of us getting to aim there shot. But no that's better than lynching mafia today forcing some of their kp onto you tonight. Screw it if there is a doctor somewhere you might actually even live! But "it's ok, town totally lynch me first" is the scummiest thing I've read in a while.
On June 17 2017 20:23 ruXxar wrote: Meh, I think I'm going to pack it up and and get me some fresh air. I think todays lynch is pretty much set in stone.
It's up to the mafia to try and turn the tides.
It is actually surprisingly fine with me. I'm so dead regardless that a small boost to victory odds by tonnes of effort doesn't seem hugely appealing. If that's what we decide, then so be it.
That being said, I'm in the unique position of knowing that disfo is already scum, so I'll most likely look at things and try to solve the scumteam from that perspective later tonight when I have more time again.
This guy doesn't even believe his own claim. Disfo's not mafia, and this crap claim is just trying to de-rail the arguement and push one more mis-lynch before he dies This is much is plainly obvious.
##vote: Xatalos
if eversince is a newbie, like in his first 5 games or so, this makes him town. if he has been around a while this post makes him scum
On June 18 2017 07:35 disformation wrote: i am not discrediting you. i am telling you to use your head and look at xata and decide if you believe him to be cop.
I don't believe for a second that he's cop
but I'm not lynching a claim over a red check. There's always the possibility that it's just bad town.
you don't think he's a cop but you don't want to lynch him eh
On June 18 2017 07:35 disformation wrote: i am not discrediting you. i am telling you to use your head and look at xata and decide if you believe him to be cop.
I don't believe for a second that he's cop
but I'm not lynching a claim over a red check. There's always the possibility that it's just bad town.
read his filter ignoring the check. do you think he is town or scum?
I said D1 he's fishy. I came to the thread voting him. Only when I realized he claimed I unvoted. Because you don't lynch into a blue claim.
you think he's scum but you dont' want to lynch him eh
On June 18 2017 07:35 disformation wrote: i am not discrediting you. i am telling you to use your head and look at xata and decide if you believe him to be cop.
I don't believe for a second that he's cop
but I'm not lynching a claim over a red check. There's always the possibility that it's just bad town.
Ok, makes sense. Forgive me for calling you stupid. This is genius.
On June 18 2017 07:39 disformation wrote: if you think i am scum and he town. fine. if you really think that.
if you dont believe his cop claim and dont think i am scum or he is town (or both) you are either mafia siding or mafia
you make it sound like lynching a un-cc'ed cop is a town trait, it's amazing.
the only town trait is having a role PM that says you're town, the rest is tells and window dressing.
On June 18 2017 07:43 beentheredonethat wrote: because HEY GUYS IT'S A BLUE, IT'S THE COP, AND WE HAVE 2312321321 PLAYERS IN AND ONLY A MINORITY IS ACTIVE
of course I prefer the potential VT loss over the potential COP loss thefuck is wrong with you people
valid but i don't think xat is cop
On June 18 2017 07:44 disformation wrote: because it is a super hilariously obvious scum fake claiming to live another day. what if he is a scum PR?
i don't particular care what kind of scum he is, the real question is "what if he's scum" dude lol
On June 18 2017 07:35 disformation wrote: i am not discrediting you. i am telling you to use your head and look at xata and decide if you believe him to be cop.
I don't believe for a second that he's cop
but I'm not lynching a claim over a red check. There's always the possibility that it's just bad town.
If you don't believe the claim how can you believe the red check? That's entirely like "I know your lying. But I believe you"
No. It's like "I think you're lying, but as long as there's a chance you're not, I'm not lynching you over the red-check you claimed".
Then fakeclaiming scum can never lose against you. I will make sure to remember this should I ever roll mafia against you.
I'm pretty sure that oversimplifying my words will make you right.
situation: xata no pressure claims red check OHHHH EVERY LYNCH XATA
On June 18 2017 07:46 Eversince wrote: Ok, and there is still 24 hrs he could of just played the game instead of claiming cop. He didn't even try to even do anything. "I dun wanna try even though I'm cop just kill me today ok guys?" Jesus the dude is so mafia. Who the hell roles cop and just rolls over at the start of the day? Fight your damn red check. Oops but wait, he can't. His red check is fake, his target isn't mafia and he knows it. Better hope the town will lynch him first if I play the matyr. Cept he's not even martyr. It's actively just throwing away a town power role for no better reason than to give mafia extra. If that isn't a scum driven agenda I don't know what is.
i mean if he's actually the cop then we shouldn't lynch him. if he is town and is "throwing away a town power role" then yes this is shit play but i don't care about that, i want to lynch scum. that being said: yes, he is scum.
On June 18 2017 07:46 Eversince wrote: Ok, and there is still 24 hrs he could of just played the game instead of claiming cop. He didn't even try to even do anything. "I dun wanna try even though I'm cop just kill me today ok guys?" Jesus the dude is so mafia. Who the hell roles cop and just rolls over at the start of the day? Fight your damn red check. Oops but wait, he can't. His red check is fake, his target isn't mafia and he knows it. Better hope the town will lynch him first if I play the matyr. Cept he's not even martyr. It's actively just throwing away a town power role for no better reason than to give mafia extra. If that isn't a scum driven agenda I don't know what is.
That's what people mean when they say "bad town".
ah this is so super annoying
go ahead lynch xata and once he flipped town, lynch me for TMI reasons or whatever :D
:D
and if he flips scum we'll lynch you for defending scum
On June 18 2017 07:49 disformation wrote: go ahead lynch me. but promise to send me a picture of your face when i flip green.
On June 18 2017 07:35 disformation wrote: i am not discrediting you. i am telling you to use your head and look at xata and decide if you believe him to be cop.
I don't believe for a second that he's cop
but I'm not lynching a claim over a red check. There's always the possibility that it's just bad town.
This is potentially the scummiest thing said today.
I've already been over this: if Xata is scum, disformation is basically confirmed town through vote analysis. If we lynch disformation and Xata is mafia, we basically kill someone who was gonna be confirmed town.
Grow some gonads. If you don't believe him "for a second", fucking lynch him.
Why the hell would the real cop CC the obvious lynch who's most likely scum even before this claim shenanigan? Only a shit cop would cc today.
On June 18 2017 07:49 disformation wrote: go ahead lynch me. but promise to send me a picture of your face when i flip green.
I love how this implies that I'm town not knowing your alignment
super lovely tmi
So you don't believe Xatalos's claim for a second but you also believ disformation is mafia.
Damn, looks like you got THREE mafia in one fell swoop!
So.
"I don't believe Xatalos' claim but there's the chance he's the real cop" Then, slip happens "whoops, slip, disfo scum"
You can be all ironic you want but there's no way Xata is flipping something that is not cop today. And I'll happily be providing the broomstick to all the townies who were wrong. I will then happily take the TMI lynch because that's the level of retardedness this town is at. Full stop.
surely you must admit it's possible xat isn't the real cop
On June 18 2017 07:57 darthfoley wrote: Guys BTDT has found three mafia in 30 minutes.
All hail btdt!
So you know how I react when I get tilted and keep working on tilting me
good job
oh boy are we going down this hole
On June 18 2017 08:05 darthfoley wrote: I just can't believe cop!Xata doesn't claim anytime yesterday. He didn't even put up a fight in the showdown. Someone please tell me of a cop who 1) didn't claim in a heated 1v1 AND 2) didn't fight like hell to survive the 1v1.
If Xatalos had done #2 without #1, I could see his play. But doing neither and then claiming cop with a red check on disformation right after a few of us say disformation is spewed town by mafia!Xatalos is pretty rich
On June 18 2017 19:16 Vivax wrote: So anyone else besides Ruxxar wanna claim that someone is town for posting cases on a scum posting babyseals, today?
It's not that they did it. It's almost never the fact they did it, whether arguing one way or the other.
On June 20 2017 08:05 Rels wrote: )= fucking doc not doing their job
If Doc didn't save DF last night, I wouldn't count on one existing at all. There's zero chance that was a vigi shot, everyone who even gave the thread a cursory glance liked DF. I can say this, as someone who gave the thread a cursory glance.
On June 20 2017 08:05 Rels wrote: )= fucking doc not doing their job
If Doc didn't save DF last night, I wouldn't count on one existing at all. There's zero chance that was a vigi shot, everyone who even gave the thread a cursory glance liked DF. I can say this, as someone who gave the thread a cursory glance.
can't bitch about the balance without knowing the setup. But we better have some way to overcome that 2 KP / night.
I predict that we will somehow overcome that 2 kp / night starting night 3. if you can guess how you are a winner
On June 20 2017 08:05 Rels wrote: )= fucking doc not doing their job
If Doc didn't save DF last night, I wouldn't count on one existing at all. There's zero chance that was a vigi shot, everyone who even gave the thread a cursory glance liked DF. I can say this, as someone who gave the thread a cursory glance.
can't bitch about the balance without knowing the setup. But we better have some way to overcome that 2 KP / night.
Let's hope for a cop with some juicy checks then.
actually of everything Rels has written and perhaps of everything Chez has written that I've paid attention to, I like these two posts the least.
On June 20 2017 08:21 disformation wrote: reading the op is powerful.
you're looking at this in a too surface-level way. pretending not to have read the op, but in a way that only town could have missed (since scum obviously would be aware of their own kp) is an attempt to build towncred via "too little information" (the opposite of TMI, if you would) without actually contributing to scumhunting or taking part in a significant way. In fact, by spreading misinformation or asking for cop claims, one might say it's quite the opposite in terms of actual help.
hay guyz its me, blazinghand, how many kp do mafia have, also how many mafia factionz are thur i totez don't know cause I am a guy who didn't reed the op, i must be townie :o :o :o <3 also is it daytiem yet
I mean not that bad but you get the idea right, i mean there's a solid chance that towns make this mistake but this is definitely the kind of thing that really gets my goat, right up there with peopel trying to use emotionality to get out of engage with the thread or talking about IRL issues like being sick or whatever and using that as an excuse.
It can be faked. It can all be faked. I've done it, even. Don't believe I'm the only one.
On June 20 2017 08:25 Blazinghand wrote: hay guyz its me, blazinghand, how many kp do mafia have, also how many mafia factionz are thur i totez don't know cause I am a guy who didn't reed the op, i must be townie :o :o :o <3 also is it daytiem yet
I take back my willingness to lynch BH this dumbtell proves he's town
On June 20 2017 08:21 disformation wrote: reading the op is powerful.
you're looking at this in a too surface-level way. pretending not to have read the op, but in a way that only town could have missed (since scum obviously would be aware of their own kp) is an attempt to build towncred via "too little information" (the opposite of TMI, if you would) without actually contributing to scumhunting or taking part in a significant way. In fact, by spreading misinformation or asking for cop claims, one might say it's quite the opposite in terms of actual help.
Are you seriously considering my line as "asking for cop claims"?
I think cop shouldn't claim today. What do you think?
On June 20 2017 08:25 Blazinghand wrote: hay guyz its me, blazinghand, how many kp do mafia have, also how many mafia factionz are thur i totez don't know cause I am a guy who didn't reed the op, i must be townie :o :o :o <3 also is it daytiem yet
I take back my willingness to lynch BH this dumbtell proves he's town
On June 20 2017 08:29 disformation wrote: @bh: who is scum, why?
i have lots of strong opinions on who is scum, and therefore am town. Nobody has stronger opinions on who is scum than I do. My scumreads are some of the best, sorry haters! You know it, they know it, we all know it, and it's going to be tremendous
in all actuality let me poke at people for a bit longer and i'll have a better answer for you
On June 20 2017 08:21 disformation wrote: reading the op is powerful.
you're looking at this in a too surface-level way. pretending not to have read the op, but in a way that only town could have missed (since scum obviously would be aware of their own kp) is an attempt to build towncred via "too little information" (the opposite of TMI, if you would) without actually contributing to scumhunting or taking part in a significant way. In fact, by spreading misinformation or asking for cop claims, one might say it's quite the opposite in terms of actual help.
Are you seriously considering my line as "asking for cop claims"?
I think cop shouldn't claim today. What do you think?
Pointless question. It obviously depends heavily on the checks.
On June 20 2017 16:50 disformation wrote: @lazyhand: in the nsm game that ended yesterday you had a fairly big filter, that was pretty town. this game i feel like you stopped playing at a certain point and just started trolling.
On June 19 2017 10:10 Blazinghand wrote: I'm awake and highly American. We should vote btdt and write cases on him and see how angry he gets it's s 10/10 experience
On June 20 2017 16:50 disformation wrote: @lazyhand: in the nsm game that ended yesterday you had a fairly big filter, that was pretty town. this game i feel like you stopped playing at a certain point and just started trolling.
also from the nsm:
On June 07 2017 03:45 Blazinghand wrote: Jeez I've kinda been a grouch to your btdt sorry
Gonna take a break then come back
this game:
On June 19 2017 10:10 Blazinghand wrote: I'm awake and highly American. We should vote btdt and write cases on him and see how angry he gets it's s 10/10 experience
On June 20 2017 16:50 disformation wrote: @lazyhand: in the nsm game that ended yesterday you had a fairly big filter, that was pretty town. this game i feel like you stopped playing at a certain point and just started trolling.
also from the nsm:
On June 07 2017 03:45 Blazinghand wrote: Jeez I've kinda been a grouch to your btdt sorry
Gonna take a break then come back
this game:
On June 19 2017 10:10 Blazinghand wrote: I'm awake and highly American. We should vote btdt and write cases on him and see how angry he gets it's s 10/10 experience
yep
this answer doesnt really help me to determine your alignment. would you like to post something that helps me determine your alignment?
bah it doesn't matter we're gonna lynch like 3-4 people before even considering me, and by then i'll probably be shot for my reputation
i have reasons to explain the lack of posting but none of them even remotely believable
leave me alone for like a week and i'll get sorted out
On June 20 2017 16:50 disformation wrote: @lazyhand: in the nsm game that ended yesterday you had a fairly big filter, that was pretty town. this game i feel like you stopped playing at a certain point and just started trolling.
also from the nsm:
On June 07 2017 03:45 Blazinghand wrote: Jeez I've kinda been a grouch to your btdt sorry
Gonna take a break then come back
this game:
On June 19 2017 10:10 Blazinghand wrote: I'm awake and highly American. We should vote btdt and write cases on him and see how angry he gets it's s 10/10 experience
this is kinda the feeling I had reading BH filter yesterday. Not exactly this, that's a good find, but the fact that he didn't push the game forward with all his BTDT posts.
On June 20 2017 16:50 disformation wrote: @lazyhand: in the nsm game that ended yesterday you had a fairly big filter, that was pretty town. this game i feel like you stopped playing at a certain point and just started trolling.
also from the nsm:
On June 07 2017 03:45 Blazinghand wrote: Jeez I've kinda been a grouch to your btdt sorry
Gonna take a break then come back
this game:
On June 19 2017 10:10 Blazinghand wrote: I'm awake and highly American. We should vote btdt and write cases on him and see how angry he gets it's s 10/10 experience
this is kinda the feeling I had reading BH filter yesterday. Not exactly this, that's a good find, but the fact that he didn't push the game forward with all his BTDT posts.
vote me or screw off
actually don't vote me, then maybe a wagon would happen and i'd have to actually play and i really don't want to do that before like, Friday at the earliest.
On June 20 2017 16:50 disformation wrote: @lazyhand: in the nsm game that ended yesterday you had a fairly big filter, that was pretty town. this game i feel like you stopped playing at a certain point and just started trolling.
also from the nsm:
On June 07 2017 03:45 Blazinghand wrote: Jeez I've kinda been a grouch to your btdt sorry
Gonna take a break then come back
this game:
On June 19 2017 10:10 Blazinghand wrote: I'm awake and highly American. We should vote btdt and write cases on him and see how angry he gets it's s 10/10 experience
this is kinda the feeling I had reading BH filter yesterday. Not exactly this, that's a good find, but the fact that he didn't push the game forward with all his BTDT posts.
vote me or screw off
* call me scum and don't vote me * tells me to vote him I wanna scumread him
i'm just gonna sheep whatever the majority is up to today, no need to start taking positions, being helpful, or pushing cases
On June 20 2017 07:39 Rels wrote: rayn / ruxxar / SL / Chezitwo / Skynx ? That could make some sense
does the realization that chezitwo replaced marv change your read on him? also would like some reasons for those reads.
ideal scenario here is either I remember why I was scumreading Rels and it was actually a good reason, or Rels reveals his true scummy nature and we all lynch him and i bathe in well-deserved towncred, then am shot tonight
On June 20 2017 08:21 disformation wrote: reading the op is powerful.
People who don't read the op:
Sicklucker Rels
People who claim not to have read the OP, and therefore obviously could never be mafia, how convenient and innocent
^--- FTFY
On June 20 2017 08:25 Blazinghand wrote: hay guyz its me, blazinghand, how many kp do mafia have, also how many mafia factionz are thur i totez don't know cause I am a guy who didn't reed the op, i must be townie :o :o :o <3 also is it daytiem yet
i'm not sure why my ire is aimed at Rels and not Sicklucker but i assure you it was likely for good reasons
On June 19 2017 23:53 Vivax wrote: I believe at this point mafia has big difficulties just coming into the thread and trying to push townies without feeling like they're looking awful.
I predict an easy game
There's just to hope that it will remain this way after the NKs. But I volunteer to carry on your legacies if I'm not the kill.
My legacy if I die is
- lynch grack and ES, grack first if possible. - never lynch FF - consider that Rels can be town - force SL to play more - keep an eye on ruxxar if he keeps on surviving while he keeps posting as much as he did D2. I still kind of respect annuls D1 read on him along with my points. - And last but not least, never forget what happened in previous days or D1 for that matter when previously lurky people start to try and look more active as the game progresses.
I'm being pretty ballsy here but I think Skynx and TW are town. Skynx had good D1 and his list of 5 people for postgame cred is so wrong that I think he can't be mafia.
Sl/ruxxar/tw/btdt/HF for postgame cred
Same for TW who as mafia is prone to the mistake of trying to be too right in his reads and ends up posting correct reads on most people . When he doesn't care too much about being in sync with rest of town and openly looks bad in his voting patterns, he's probably town..
blah blah blah read filter reasons analyze argue the points remember good faith confirmed town flip reads ideas etc
On June 20 2017 21:35 disformation wrote: problem is that enough towns are not playing so that it is really hard to differentiate between lazy town and lurko scumo.
(and the ppl doing work are getting called scum for it -.-)
yeah also fun fact the only reason people are giving me shit is because i dont' lie about lurking and i actually show up and post some. being visible causes me to rise to the top of people's minds, even though it's a sign i'm actually townier than the people who literally aren't posting, it makes them more suspicious of me. Or Rels is looking for an easy wagon to park his vote on thinking I won't fight back
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Also there's a non-trivial chance Palmar gets shot by scum or cop checked anyways. Or modkilled if he literally doesn't post. he's not urgent. he still could be scum though.
On June 20 2017 22:38 disformation wrote: tbh. my gut likes palmar/sl/skynx +1 more on annul
so what's the premise of the D1 wagons here? Mafia piled onto annul to save Xat? I'd be surprised if more than like, 2 mafia were on annul. Xat is a natural check, vigi shot, or lynch target after a face-off like that where Annul flips town. Mafia would try to save Xat, but I don't know if they'd try that hard.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
On June 20 2017 22:38 disformation wrote: tbh. my gut likes palmar/sl/skynx +1 more on annul
What happened to grack? Is he town now?
+1 more on annul?
You sure went from confident in grack/rels to +1 on annul.
yes. my reads change as i go back to review the contents of the game and interact with other players. shocking i know. yes i am way less confident in rels being scum. might be grack might be es. think lynching grack first is fine.
You think there was only 2 mafia on the annul vote?
On June 20 2017 22:50 Palmar wrote: my top lyncherios atm:
skynx, btdt and sicklucker.
shit guys we're caught
/concede
I'm impressed how 2 page filter Palmar drops scumreads without hesitation
???
On June 20 2017 22:55 ruXxar wrote: When mafia roleblocker is on the line?
the fact that a mafia player is a power role is relatively meaningless. A Mafia RB is better than a Mafia Goon, but two mafia are way more useful/dangerous than one regardless of power roles.
On June 20 2017 22:56 VayneAuthority wrote: is btdt usually like that? never played with him.
because pushing the fake cop check (aka they make us decide between lynching scum/scum and its suspicious if he stays alive, in addition to him being townie to begin with) is absolutely insane.
That's borderline policy lynch unless that's just his usual
BTDT in my experience as town is super over-emotional, whines a lot, threatens to leav the game, accuses players of being toxic, gets into huge shitfights, causes major problems and disruptiosn in the thread, and if you even consider calling him a tiny bit hypothetically suspicious he starts hyperventilating and askign why he even plays Mafia in the first place. It's an incredible shitshow.
He's drastically different this game, which makes him probably mafia, but i don't want to give him shit about it because he's like a million times more pleasant to play with this game than he was last game.
On June 20 2017 22:38 disformation wrote: tbh. my gut likes palmar/sl/skynx +1 more on annul
What happened to grack? Is he town now?
+1 more on annul?
You sure went from confident in grack/rels to +1 on annul.
yes. my reads change as i go back to review the contents of the game and interact with other players. shocking i know. yes i am way less confident in rels being scum. might be grack might be es. think lynching grack first is fine.
You think there was only 2 mafia on the annul vote?
mh. dunno. possible that a lot of scum were afk. sl, xata himself + 1 of grack/es makes 3. with the decent amount of afk/off wagon not impossible.
we will see i guess. also would be bad to just ignore anyone not on annul. i also really really dont want to have another afk day with everyone just on grack. so i am looking at other ppl.
On June 20 2017 23:03 disformation wrote: if i remember correctly btdt claimed cop with a fake red check on someone in a recent nsm. btdt was vt, his redcheck too.
can we not bring that up please
I regret this a lot
wait are you telling me during that whole vivax thing you had actually previously as VT fakeclaimed redcheck on someone?
and you're telling me that yesterday during the whole xat thing when you were talking about how it is literally impossible for it to be good to vote Xat, you argued this
1. coming out of a game where someone fakeclaimed a red check on the vigi 2. also in your own past having fakeclaimed a red check
On June 20 2017 23:06 disformation wrote: nah grack is a good lynch, but i dont want to sit on my hands all day and wait on whether he shows up and posts something good or not. there are more than one scummer left after all.
+1 town point for statements like this
On June 20 2017 23:11 Palmar wrote: Can someone also link to a case on Grack?
I'd also appreciate this. something other than "he waffles on his scumreads" and "he was the 6th vote on annul"
On June 21 2017 00:15 VayneAuthority wrote: I will say that I thought rayn was town until I read these 2 NK'd filters, does worry me a bit since there arent that many people scumreading him besides you as well
legit forgot he was in the game
also, forgot you were in this game
sup vayneauthority, funf act, you have been RNGed the most by my RNG out of anyone I played with
On June 21 2017 02:20 Grackaroni wrote: I finished reading through the end of the day.
Disfo looked terrible but he also has a 26 page filter, most of which I'm probably not going to read. He didn't give a good reason for voting Xata and then when HF and Koshi both called out his vote as suspicious he backtracked saying that he could vote Annul too (after saying that he hadn't read Annul.) Overall, he didn't feel very obs-warriory. He wasn't contributing many of his own ideas during that end of day period.
Conclusion: None
Vayneauthority was completely disconnected from the thread at the end of the day, dropping a role playing post and then calling out Skynx while making no attempt to convince people of his read.
On June 20 2017 08:34 Blazinghand wrote: oh man I should have a grack opinion huh
If your highness can be so kind as to add in an opinion on rels too that would be great.
1. yeah i've decided i'm gonna not have a grack opinion cause your case is bad and you should feel bad 2. are you fucking kidding me with that rels opinion shit? Rels is possibly the only person in this game that i've expressed a scumread on. what kidn of half-assed play are you doing broh. Like I've got one scumread, it's rels, and you're like "hey Blazinghand what's your Rels read"
Right now I feel like you're just dickwaving quotes around. Can you get to some conclusions on scum/town? A list would be great.
nope. fuck list posts. in fact, literally for this post, i'm voting you, because you're asking for a list post, i've decided you're more scum than Rels
your case on grack is bad your opinions on my opinions on Rels are bad your asking me for a list post is bad
now stop prodding me and make a decision:
are you going to let yourself get lynched by Blazinghand?
actually tehre's no decision to make, the answer is yes
Sigh, I guess this is my lucky day.
So I'd like to ask you right now, why don't you push your own reads on me that you've taken from my lack of list posts? Why don't you give push that read? I think it would be a great move. Especially after your huge grack case. You know why? Because your grack case is a tremendous amount of shit. And you take a look at Grack. I can understand Grack. I was talking with Grack the other day. Nobody talks to Grack more than I do or respects him more than I do. And I want to tell you, Grack hates bad cases, because that's what you'er pushing and it's a disgrace. And you know it, and they know it, and everybody knows it.
On June 21 2017 05:50 sicklucker wrote: oh and marv is still 100% mafia. the fact a smurf replaced into his position is even more evidence
the smurf that replaced him... is actually just marv again!?!?!
On June 21 2017 05:14 Skynx wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Skynx
hey man come on we can all work together here. sometimes people can be abrasive but assuming you're town that's no reason to give up.
im sure the convo went something like this...
"yo guys i need someone to replace marv..."
"crickets..."
"alright fine but im not ruining my stats or trying very hard get me a smurf"
huh, i guess that makes sense. but I'm not about to get into host motivations here, I think that kind of reasoning is far too unreliable. If Chezitwo is scum that's something we can find out using in-game knowledge. The fact that he has been reasonably playful with me leads me to think there's a decent chance he's town. He's having fun, and we're in a reasonably good (if autopilot-ey) spot today, so it matches up.
On June 21 2017 05:49 sicklucker wrote: dont care afk. rels and grack gave to die to advance the game its standard vote logic stuff.
almost always mafia in a 5 mafia game
This is like honey to my ears. SL going up on town list.
Can you explain why you like this? "Rels and grack have to die to advance the game" seems much less convincing/good to me than "Rels and grack are scum" and this actually made me like sicklucker less, not more.
On June 21 2017 06:27 Blazinghand wrote: SL has stated that his belief is that Mafia shot everyone who was townreading him in order to set him up to get lynched today or something similar.
thats not really my belief but people have brought it up. I think hf was mored killed because hes generally a good player. NO idea why vivax was shot its kind of a frame but hes usually a free townread.
But the kills do point to me no idea why rels is fake raging for me to point that out to him
ah my bad, yeah someone said something like that though
On June 21 2017 07:26 Rels wrote: your reason to scumread me is so bad too. Because I dumbtelled. I understand not taking the dumbtell into account 'cause it can be faked. But making it a basis for a scumread is nonsense
On June 21 2017 08:01 Eversince wrote: I think Rayn should at least drop the argument involving your comment on me. You clarified what you meant within the same minute of posting that.
No. The fact is Rels was making a factually incorrect statement he should know is one, and couldn't explain that reasonably. Instead he is trying to defend the statement.
When I used this argument against him initially he said that he'd never try faking a dumbtell because he knew he'd be caught for it, so that's a dumb strategy, so he wouldn't do it
On June 21 2017 18:34 disformation wrote: looking back at fefe: last post:
On June 21 2017 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote: So I went into VA's filter almost looking for reasons to scumread him and now that I made half a case about his read progression on grack and skynx...
I kinda think he's just low effort town.. The way he comes across seems so casual and while like 80% of his posts are setup talk or useless he seems to be looking at the game from a low information point of view and hasn't pushed any sort of agenda (scum or town) that I can see.
town. fairly sure.
Why is that townish? "I made a half-assed attempt to do something and my result is a not-really-committed townread"
How is that townish?
*sigh* why would scum do that? scum would just finish up the half finished case to look like having scumreads and done stuff. realizing half way through a case that you think the guy might actually be town is far more likely to come from town. aaaand the read isnt even as shitty as you make it out to be. "i cant see any agenda in va's filter" is a pretty strong statement.
Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it.
On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular.
So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly.
But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them.
So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly.
so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce
On June 21 2017 20:06 Rels wrote: BH you're there ? I thought you scumread me for that dumbtell where I didn't know that scum KP went down to 1 after N2. Apparently I misunderstood ? Please explain if that's the case
On June 21 2017 18:34 disformation wrote: looking back at fefe: last post:
On June 21 2017 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote: So I went into VA's filter almost looking for reasons to scumread him and now that I made half a case about his read progression on grack and skynx...
I kinda think he's just low effort town.. The way he comes across seems so casual and while like 80% of his posts are setup talk or useless he seems to be looking at the game from a low information point of view and hasn't pushed any sort of agenda (scum or town) that I can see.
town. fairly sure.
Why is that townish? "I made a half-assed attempt to do something and my result is a not-really-committed townread"
How is that townish?
*sigh* why would scum do that? scum would just finish up the half finished case to look like having scumreads and done stuff. realizing half way through a case that you think the guy might actually be town is far more likely to come from town. aaaand the read isnt even as shitty as you make it out to be. "i cant see any agenda in va's filter" is a pretty strong statement.
Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it.
On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular.
So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly.
But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them.
So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly.
so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce
On June 21 2017 23:42 ruXxar wrote: How likely is there even to be a 3P in the game? None of my previous mafia games had a 3P
more likely in big games for there to be a 3P. You rarely see in games below 15.
On June 22 2017 00:29 ruXxar wrote: I mean, our blues gotta show up soon right? I have this feeling in my bones that if we stray off the right path, some blue will pimpslap our faces and tell us to get back to lynching scum.
don't think about or focus on these things.
On June 22 2017 00:47 ruXxar wrote: I hope we don't see a repeat of day 1 with last minute clown fiesta voting by afk people.
we could do shenanigans onto someone, this actually often works well
On June 22 2017 01:41 Chezitwo wrote: Which means I have to find a good location for my vote. Which probably is SL right now. Gotta give HF a little credit.
I don't see why you all are so eager to vote together with grack when he was such a strong scum read just a short while ago.
You think grack is bussing here?
Pro tip: Don't make pre flip associations. Vote on who is the most scummy individually.
And I don't see how this tip makes any sense. If I think grack is scum, I'm going to be inclined to not vote with him.
How is that a bad idea?
If you think grack is scum, vote for him. But don't try to like "not vote with him" or some weird shit like this until you know what his alignment is. The more improtant thing is whether he is scum. Also now I am wondering who Chezitwo is because he seems solid
On June 22 2017 04:30 VayneAuthority wrote: eversince has definitely been around which means they are going to last second vote again, kinda annoying.
Hypocritical but rayn wasting his vote is not like him at all. I hope he comes back
huh good point. Are Eversince and Rayn around? let me know guys
If not I am in the position of ultimate power and get life or death authority, which would be great. I get to decide... which case is the best. which person is the scummiest. Grack, SL, if you want to beg for your lives now is the chance.
Disfo, Palm, Grack, REls, Skynx, Chez are voting for SL (6) Rux, FF, BTDT, VA, TW, and SL are voting for Grack (6)
Rayn is on Rels, effectively not voting. ES isn't voting
If Rayn and ES don't come back, and nobody changes their votes.... THE POWER IS MIIIIIINE
On June 22 2017 04:55 disformation wrote: bh you have an opinion to what i just posted or are you just here to type?
What to this?
On June 22 2017 04:48 disformation wrote: ah i think ill skip the score crap. see sl here is my problem: you came into the thread mentioned a scum read on rels, but dont want to start a wagon. where is the d1 fire? then you single me out, buddy up to me and spend a whole lot of posts on trying to convice me you are town.
0% figuring out the game 100% playing for survival
and your posts now with "if grack is mafia we win bigly" dont even sound like you are convinced he is scum
On June 22 2017 05:16 disformation wrote: tbh all reads this game are: "had shit reasons to push annul or tr xata" thats basically all this game is. sl not having changed his reads like n1 or something is evidence for that
i try super hard to figure shit out and get called scum
On June 22 2017 07:13 Chezitwo wrote: If grack is mafia then this is a heavy bus by the way. No way that he goes down like this while his teammates aren't on board. Speaking of "not on board" - wtf is this shit Palmar vote disformation? I left the steering of this town to you?!
Even if Grack flips town it seems likely Mafia would be on board also. There are a LOT of votes on Grack right now. the only people who weren't voting grack at an important time are like
Rels, Skynx, Chez... Grack
So unless that list literally contains all the remaining scum, there is likely at LEAST one scum on the Grack Wagon, or Wagrackon as I call it. And this is regardless as to the Grack alignment
On June 22 2017 07:13 Chezitwo wrote: If grack is mafia then this is a heavy bus by the way. No way that he goes down like this while his teammates aren't on board. Speaking of "not on board" - wtf is this shit Palmar vote disformation? I left the steering of this town to you?!
Nope, this is the opposite of a bus.
The opposite of a bus, being what? Mafia voting for Town? Are you defending Grack?
On June 22 2017 08:02 Blazinghand wrote: I WAS THE ONLY ONE WHO SPOKE OUT AGAINST THIS
WHY DID NOBODY LISTEN TO ME
Sorry man. Should have listened to you.
Ok gonna admit I have some egg on my face here since my voting Grack did secure the lynch. but please bear in mind that, we all make mistakes, and just because Grack made a huge mistake in getting voted by me doesn't mean we should do anything too hasty here
On June 22 2017 08:07 Fecalfeast wrote: So my.hunch was that ruxxar was a cop with a red check on grack.
Now I'm thinking we have no investigative roles or something like a watcher/tracker who have no useful checks....
Wtf man.
I'm pushing ruxxar all day tomorrow
We've had a wanderer and a miller and a Mafia RB. It seems plausible to me that we have some kind of investigative role. However, we shouldn't automatically assume its type or whatever
On June 21 2017 07:26 Rels wrote: your reason to scumread me is so bad too. Because I dumbtelled. I understand not taking the dumbtell into account 'cause it can be faked. But making it a basis for a scumread is nonsense
On June 22 2017 03:46 Fecalfeast wrote: Ruxxar is all about unflipped association this game.
BH do you have reads? I haven't read your filter or anything just wondering
other than Rels = Scum not really no, I've been a useless piece of crap
On June 22 2017 03:49 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:44 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:16 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:14 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:12 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:04 Blazinghand wrote: [quote]
so why would you need to throw logic out the window to vote SL then
Because people are voting together with grack who they called scum just a short while a ago.
Now they call SL scum and claim they both can be scum.
In no sane world are SL and grack scum together.
hmm so what do you think about Rels
I think rels is scum.
Why not vote him then, or is grack your stronger scumread
On June 22 2017 03:21 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:16 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:14 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:12 ruXxar wrote: [quote]
Because people are voting together with grack who they called scum just a short while a ago.
Now they call SL scum and claim they both can be scum.
In no sane world are SL and grack scum together.
hmm so what do you think about Rels
I think rels is scum.
Which is why rels is town reading grack so hard. Also why grack decided to vote for SL over Rels when they were even in votes.
IS the Rels read based entirely on the grack read? is it pure unflipped association?
No. I've had rels as a secondary scum read since after day 2. Just a hair behind grack.
what do you think of Rels faking the dumbtells?
I thought that was not your reason to scumread me ?
On June 21 2017 08:08 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 21 2017 07:26 Rels wrote: your reason to scumread me is so bad too. Because I dumbtelled. I understand not taking the dumbtell into account 'cause it can be faked. But making it a basis for a scumread is nonsense
LOL is this really your reasoning, like damn
Yes I was asking him what he thought of that
Why did you answer me "LOL it this really your reasonning" then ? It seems like what I've said at that point was wrong but it was actually true.
...I said it because I disagreed with your reasoning, and instead agreed with my own. It was like, making fun of you. I was calling your reasoning bad. You were trying to reason that MY reasoning was bad, and I was like "no, YOUR reasoning is bad". Then, I proceeded to ask someone else about my, good, reasoning. Do you not understand this thought process here?
On June 22 2017 03:46 Fecalfeast wrote: Ruxxar is all about unflipped association this game.
BH do you have reads? I haven't read your filter or anything just wondering
other than Rels = Scum not really no, I've been a useless piece of crap
On June 22 2017 03:49 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:44 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:16 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:14 Blazinghand wrote: [quote]
hmm so what do you think about Rels
I think rels is scum.
Why not vote him then, or is grack your stronger scumread
On June 22 2017 03:21 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:16 ruXxar wrote: [quote]
I think rels is scum.
Which is why rels is town reading grack so hard. Also why grack decided to vote for SL over Rels when they were even in votes.
IS the Rels read based entirely on the grack read? is it pure unflipped association?
No. I've had rels as a secondary scum read since after day 2. Just a hair behind grack.
what do you think of Rels faking the dumbtells?
I thought that was not your reason to scumread me ?
On June 21 2017 08:08 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 21 2017 07:26 Rels wrote: your reason to scumread me is so bad too. Because I dumbtelled. I understand not taking the dumbtell into account 'cause it can be faked. But making it a basis for a scumread is nonsense
LOL is this really your reasoning, like damn
Yes I was asking him what he thought of that
Why did you answer me "LOL it this really your reasonning" then ? It seems like what I've said at that point was wrong but it was actually true.
...I said it because I disagreed with your reasoning, and instead agreed with my own. It was like, making fun of you. I was calling your reasoning bad. You were trying to reason that MY reasoning was bad, and I was like "no, YOUR reasoning is bad". Then, I proceeded to ask someone else about my, good, reasoning. Do you not understand this thought process here?
OK. Then your scumread don't make sense to me. Someone making a dumbtell is not a basis for a scumread. It happens all the time. It can also be faked, no doubt about that. But I don't get why it's a scumtell.
So what are you claiming you legitimately didn't read the like two lines of rules in that post, and decided to hang out in thread actively wondering what was in that like 2-line post, without checking? This seems to be a good chance (not 100% of course) of like Scum faking not knowing things. Does that really NOT MAKE SENSE at all to you? Or are you just being obstinant on purpose here
On June 22 2017 03:46 Fecalfeast wrote: Ruxxar is all about unflipped association this game.
BH do you have reads? I haven't read your filter or anything just wondering
other than Rels = Scum not really no, I've been a useless piece of crap
On June 22 2017 03:49 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 03:44 Blazinghand wrote: [quote]
Why not vote him then, or is grack your stronger scumread
[quote]
IS the Rels read based entirely on the grack read? is it pure unflipped association?
No. I've had rels as a secondary scum read since after day 2. Just a hair behind grack.
what do you think of Rels faking the dumbtells?
I thought that was not your reason to scumread me ?
On June 21 2017 08:08 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 21 2017 07:26 Rels wrote: your reason to scumread me is so bad too. Because I dumbtelled. I understand not taking the dumbtell into account 'cause it can be faked. But making it a basis for a scumread is nonsense
LOL is this really your reasoning, like damn
Yes I was asking him what he thought of that
Why did you answer me "LOL it this really your reasonning" then ? It seems like what I've said at that point was wrong but it was actually true.
...I said it because I disagreed with your reasoning, and instead agreed with my own. It was like, making fun of you. I was calling your reasoning bad. You were trying to reason that MY reasoning was bad, and I was like "no, YOUR reasoning is bad". Then, I proceeded to ask someone else about my, good, reasoning. Do you not understand this thought process here?
OK. Then your scumread don't make sense to me. Someone making a dumbtell is not a basis for a scumread. It happens all the time. It can also be faked, no doubt about that. But I don't get why it's a scumtell.
So what are you claiming you legitimately didn't read the like two lines of rules in that post, and decided to hang out in thread actively wondering what was in that like 2-line post, without checking? This seems to be a good chance (not 100% of course) of like Scum faking not knowing things. Does that really NOT MAKE SENSE at all to you? Or are you just being obstinant on purpose here
What ? I didn't know scum KP distribution was in the rules.
On June 22 2017 08:52 Rels wrote: Why are you creating this story in your way ? Like in your POV, if I'm town I didn't it was in the rules. If I'm scum I faked that. Why are you creating this story in which I'm town that is not my story ?
what, i'm not saying you're town dude. I'm not "creating a story in which [Rels is] town"—I LITERALLY AM NOT TOWNREADING YOU
wtf is this like, dumbtell 2.0 from Rels self defense strategy
other than Rels = Scum not really no, I've been a useless piece of crap
[quote]
what do you think of Rels faking the dumbtells?
I thought that was not your reason to scumread me ?
On June 21 2017 08:08 Blazinghand wrote: [quote]
LOL is this really your reasoning, like damn
Yes I was asking him what he thought of that
Why did you answer me "LOL it this really your reasonning" then ? It seems like what I've said at that point was wrong but it was actually true.
...I said it because I disagreed with your reasoning, and instead agreed with my own. It was like, making fun of you. I was calling your reasoning bad. You were trying to reason that MY reasoning was bad, and I was like "no, YOUR reasoning is bad". Then, I proceeded to ask someone else about my, good, reasoning. Do you not understand this thought process here?
OK. Then your scumread don't make sense to me. Someone making a dumbtell is not a basis for a scumread. It happens all the time. It can also be faked, no doubt about that. But I don't get why it's a scumtell.
So what are you claiming you legitimately didn't read the like two lines of rules in that post, and decided to hang out in thread actively wondering what was in that like 2-line post, without checking? This seems to be a good chance (not 100% of course) of like Scum faking not knowing things. Does that really NOT MAKE SENSE at all to you? Or are you just being obstinant on purpose here
What ? I didn't know scum KP distribution was in the rules.
Are you literally claiming you didn't read this, and therefore can't be scum because scum would know this?
No, I'm saying that at the time where I complained about the "2 KP / night", a few days ago, I didn't know that. I'm not trying to prove I' m town so you putting words in my mouth saying I'm trying to prove I'm town is annoying.
What kind of stupid argument is this, I'm literally arguing that you DID know and you were scum and faking, and your argument is that you're not, because.... you're not? Like, this is very tautological.
On June 20 2017 08:05 Rels wrote: )= fucking doc not doing their job
If Doc didn't save DF last night, I wouldn't count on one existing at all. There's zero chance that was a vigi shot, everyone who even gave the thread a cursory glance liked DF. I can say this, as someone who gave the thread a cursory glance.
can't bitch about the balance without knowing the setup. But we better have some way to overcome that 2 KP / night.
Where the "actively wondering" here ?
YOU'RE LITERALLY TALKING ABOUT HOW TO OVERCOME THE 2 KP PER NIGHT
On June 22 2017 08:52 Rels wrote: Why are you creating this story in your way ? Like in your POV, if I'm town I didn't it was in the rules. If I'm scum I faked that. Why are you creating this story in which I'm town that is not my story ?
what, i'm not saying you're town dude. I'm not "creating a story in which [Rels is] town"—I LITERALLY AM NOT TOWNREADING YOU
wtf is this like, dumbtell 2.0 from Rels self defense strategy
... you LITERALLY JUST CREATED A STORY in which I was town to see if that was credible, and concluded that it was not, therefore explaining your scumread. HERE: "So what are you claiming you legitimately didn't read the like two lines of rules in that post, and decided to hang out in thread actively wondering what was in that like 2-line post, without checking?"
So in that story, why are you saying "you legitimately didn't read the like two lines of rules in that post, and decided to hang out in thread actively wondering what was in that like 2-line post" ? When it doesn't make sense. You're saying it's nonsense that I talked about the 2 KP while I should have checked the rules. But why would have had check the rules since I didn't know it was in here ?
You can't just say "created a story" like somehow i pulled out of thin air that someone who is wondering about something in the OP is claiming not to be aware of that knowledge. Like wtf, "Creating a story" no YOU are the one who created a story of thinking "I hope we have some way to stop that 2 kp" which like is some weird version of trying to fake "Too little information" or something like wow
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
Ok, so you DO understand me, you're just disagreeing loudly cause you know I caught you
Look at it this way Rels
There's like, one setup post, with like 7 lines in it. It's right there.
Now what do you think is more likely here, from an outside view? 1. A townie somehow doesn't know what's going on in the OP, and is actively planning around this lack of knowledge (hoping to have a way to stop 2 kp). Despite planning around this lack of knowledge he never looks at the OP, not when he signed up, not when the game started, not when 2 deaths came through N1, and so on. And so, somehow he goes through this existence of hoping/planning around this "knowledge" that he never even spent a second to check on. 2. A Mafia, is keenly aware of how Mafia KP works, but thinks, "ah hah, I could FAKE not knowing how mafia works, thereby PROVING that I am town"
Which is more likely? It's obviously #2. Mafia are willing to lie about everything: emotions, real life issues, being busy, being sick, reading the OP, etc. Townies, will always be curious and want to know how to play the game. And some may be oblivious, but most will not. Most of the time you see something of this caliber executed by someone at this time in the game, it is a mafia move to generate towniness
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
This what he's saying: He's saying you are MAFIA, and KNEW the rules. You PRETENDED to be TOWN(dumb tell) by PRETENDING to not know the rules.
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
This what he's saying: He's saying you are MAFIA, and KNEW the rules. You PRETENDED to be TOWN(dumb tell) by PRETENDING to not know the rules.
Sheesh.
Get it over with you guys.
btw if Rels is in fact scum, pretending not to even understand how scum would do this, is also a way of pretending to be town (dumb tell) in a sense
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
This what he's saying: He's saying you are MAFIA, and KNEW the rules. You PRETENDED to be TOWN(dumb tell) by PRETENDING to not know the rules.
Sheesh.
Get it over with you guys.
yep. That's what I've said. And this is a dumb reason. Especially for BH only scumread. As I've also said, nothing else to discuss on that matter.
"nothing else to discuss" except the fact that you're scum????
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
This what he's saying: He's saying you are MAFIA, and KNEW the rules. You PRETENDED to be TOWN(dumb tell) by PRETENDING to not know the rules.
Sheesh.
Get it over with you guys.
btw if Rels is in fact scum, pretending not to even understand how scum would do this, is also a way of pretending to be town (dumb tell) in a sense
On June 22 2017 09:22 ruXxar wrote: I felt like grack was 100% sure to flip scum. My whole world made perfect sense.
The fact that he didn't gobsmacked me in the face. I need to rethink all my theories.
your world is not in complete shambles it just means there was one more lynchbait then we thought. its still logical to think the majority of mafia were on the annul wagon
He was wasn't he? It's not just me being insane?
grack was never 100% like I said about 80. sucks but rels was like 90% shoulda went with that. Anyway are we in lylo or 1 away? if were close to that I expect the claims to be coming so who knows what will happen tomorrow. 0 power roles have came out yet shit is going down
Living Players: 3)Palmar 4)Rels 5)disformation 7)Tumblewood 9)VayneAuthority 10)beentheredonethat 11)raynpelikoneet 13)AMG Replaced by Blazinghand 14)marvellosity Replaced by Chezitwo 17)Fecalfeast 19)Skynx 20)sicklucker 21)ruXxar 22)Eversince
That's 14 players. If Mafia shoot 1 tonight, we are at 13 tomorrow.
If there are 4 mafia left alive and no doctors or vigis or veterans, and no weird 3p action, that puts us at 9-4. If we ML, the day after is 7-4. Then if we ML again, the day after is 5-4.
This means we get two MLs before LYLO under my assumptions
On June 22 2017 09:26 Rels wrote: borderline read incoming.
On June 22 2017 08:00 ruXxar wrote:
On June 22 2017 08:00 Fecalfeast wrote:
Please don't shoot me.
After the "silence" and before the flip. Why does ruxxar post that as scum ? As town the explanation is obvious: he's 100% sure Grack flips town and he's making a joke on FF. Is it likely he fakes this as scum ? Risking a modkill ? Not sure. Makes me think he's the baddie. Now I don't know if I wanna really use this read. Cause if it's true it's borderline. And if it's wrong it's very unfair from ruxxar to have made that post.
This was just a joke on FF's "im going to shoot ruxxar if grack flips town".
oh. Then it doesn't mean fuck
Then it is a very weird thought to have for you actually. Like, you're 100% sure Grack flips scum. Why are you making a joke that only makes sense if Grack flips town ?
Call it last second doubts.
I knew I would look like a total ass if he flipped town.
We've only flipped Xat (scum) and Grack (town). The annul wagon was only 1 vote ahead of the Xat wagon on D1. There's no reason there could be exactly 1 more scum on the Annul wagon and everyone else is town on the wagon, and the other scum are people on the Xat wagon or off-wagon entirely. I think we should avoide getting TOO invested into this idea that like, all the scum were on annul. this will lead us astray. I think there is still at least one more though given how close it was, and we KNOW the wagons on D1 were scum vs town
I mean if you assume that there are X scum on Annul's wagon no matter what, and someone on the wagon flips town, then yeah, the odds of anyone one remaining person being scum goes up. though perhaps one ought to re-evaluate the expected number of scum on the wagon as well
I'm not sure I've actually made a case this game except the one on Rels. the rest is just me hanging out, chatting and saying wise things that are NAI, and occasionally asking people questions or sheeping
On June 22 2017 10:08 Blazinghand wrote: The annul wagon annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
We've only flipped Xat (scum) and Grack (town). The annul wagon was only 1 vote ahead of the Xat wagon on D1. There's no reason there could be exactly 1 more scum on the Annul wagon and everyone else is town on the wagon, and the other scum are people on the Xat wagon or off-wagon entirely. I think we should avoide getting TOO invested into this idea that like, all the scum were on annul. this will lead us astray. I think there is still at least one more though given how close it was, and we KNOW the wagons on D1 were scum vs town
Right, but I feel like we have A LOT of info regarding the people on the annul train, that we should definitely be able to narrow it down to AT LEAST 1 more scum, which is super likely to be the case.
On June 22 2017 18:55 Blazinghand wrote: I was the hammer. Rayn made in hammering Impoasbkle. Everything else is window dressing. TW and SL didn't hammer. I did. Get the facts straight
"votes in hammer range on town: Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand" Tumblewood provided the hammer, sicklucker lifted it, you banged it on the table.
I think I have my facts straight here and you're trying to misrepresent my case. Why do you do this?
that's what bothering me about BH the most. He has next to no read, the read he has are bad, and he's nitpicking things that have no interest.
OK but like, in fact TW and sicklucker are utterly irrelevant here and I was completely right. Someone else pointed this out as well. BTDT is just muddying the waters. Anyone in thread at the time will tell you this:
I placed the vote that put Grack ahead of SL. Rayn then also voted, meaning that even if I unvoted and voted SL, Grack was dead nonetheless.
That's the core actions. The fact that BTDT is trying to weaselword "in hammer range" as though that's somehow relevant is bull crap and deserves to be called out as such.
On June 22 2017 18:55 Blazinghand wrote: I was the hammer. Rayn made in hammering Impoasbkle. Everything else is window dressing. TW and SL didn't hammer. I did. Get the facts straight
"votes in hammer range on town: Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand" Tumblewood provided the hammer, sicklucker lifted it, you banged it on the table.
I think I have my facts straight here and you're trying to misrepresent my case. Why do you do this?
that's what bothering me about BH the most. He has next to no read, the read he has are bad, and he's nitpicking things that have no interest.
In fact, this post is just so bad and wrong in every way. if you somehow are town I'm so disappointed at the basic lack of logic
On June 23 2017 00:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: [...] After my vote on Grackaroni i had the thought at some point that he is actually town because of the people (outside you and disformation) voting for sicklucker didn't give any shits about the lynch at all. [...]
On June 23 2017 06:07 Blazinghand wrote: So what, is the premise that the last minute switches onto Grack from SL an attempt by scum to save SL?
The problem with this logic is gracks behaviour which could be interpreted as mafia giving up. Which sucks a lot because otherwise the lynch might have been more contested in the end.
hmm, on the other hand it's possible scum got onto the grack wagon in the middle as well. This would allow them to increase the wagon size and protect SL (operating on the SL-as-scum theory) without outing themselves hard by diving on the end to save SL.
Alternatively, if we think that town ALSO had motivation to jump on Grack at the end, it's plausible that some scum also snuck in with town
On June 23 2017 06:07 Blazinghand wrote: So what, is the premise that the last minute switches onto Grack from SL an attempt by scum to save SL?
The problem with this logic is gracks behaviour which could be interpreted as mafia giving up. Which sucks a lot because otherwise the lynch might have been more contested in the end.
hmm, on the other hand it's possible scum got onto the grack wagon in the middle as well. This would allow them to increase the wagon size and protect SL (operating on the SL-as-scum theory) without outing themselves hard by diving on the end to save SL.
Alternatively, if we think that town ALSO had motivation to jump on Grack at the end, it's plausible that some scum also snuck in with town
On June 23 2017 06:07 Blazinghand wrote: So what, is the premise that the last minute switches onto Grack from SL an attempt by scum to save SL?
The problem with this logic is gracks behaviour which could be interpreted as mafia giving up. Which sucks a lot because otherwise the lynch might have been more contested in the end.
hmm, on the other hand it's possible scum got onto the grack wagon in the middle as well. This would allow them to increase the wagon size and protect SL (operating on the SL-as-scum theory) without outing themselves hard by diving on the end to save SL.
Alternatively, if we think that town ALSO had motivation to jump on Grack at the end, it's plausible that some scum also snuck in with town
mm looks like we can't get any useful info from that. let's talk about it for 30 more pages.
in my opinion we actually can. all we have to do is look at people's motivations and thought procceses and see if they diverge from what would make sense for a townie
On June 15 2017 03:49 disformation wrote: @xata: ruxxar gave his reason to vote koshi later on.
On June 15 2017 02:32 ruXxar wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:05 ruXxar wrote: I have read Koshis filter and determined he is mafia.
##vote koshi
Care to elaborate?
Oh also ##vote ruxxar
Sure.
This post:
On June 14 2017 20:22 Koshi wrote:
On June 14 2017 19:49 Holyflare wrote: Wow i got him boys.
Rayn comes in with the defence. Totes mafia too.
btw if you type things like this, one might think you are just throwing suspicion around and not solving the game. You can't call me 3p, and then call rayn mafia with me. I guess you can. But it doesn't make sense. And I am pretty sure my play will not match mafia meta.
I don't like this statement. Comparing his own play to what an expected "mafia meta" is as a defense and validation of his own play seems like he's way too concious of how he's trying to project himself.
Add that on top of all his waffling reads between scum/town, and non-commital it makes it seem to me like he's trying to thread a golden middleground.
but as fefe pointed out:
On June 15 2017 02:40 Fecalfeast wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:32 ruXxar wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:05 ruXxar wrote: I have read Koshis filter and determined he is mafia.
##vote koshi
Care to elaborate?
Oh also ##vote ruxxar
Sure.
This post:
On June 14 2017 20:22 Koshi wrote:
On June 14 2017 19:49 Holyflare wrote: Wow i got him boys.
Rayn comes in with the defence. Totes mafia too.
btw if you type things like this, one might think you are just throwing suspicion around and not solving the game. You can't call me 3p, and then call rayn mafia with me. I guess you can. But it doesn't make sense. And I am pretty sure my play will not match mafia meta.
I don't like this statement. Comparing his own play to what an expected "mafia meta" is as a defense and validation of his own play seems like he's way too concious of how he's trying to project himself.
Add that on top of all his waffling reads between scum/town, and non-commital it makes it seem to me like he's trying to thread a golden middleground.
I actually like this explanation. Sorta wish you said this instead of just 'read Koshi's filter decided he's mafia' as now I'm suspicious you went back to read his filter after my post to find a post that is suspect.
For the second part:
People generally think this is scummy and it's not. It just generates suspicion because people don't like to see unjustified reads.
Mafia won't ever just carelessly throw out a scum read without giving any thought about how they are going to defend it unless they are under some kind of heavy pressure to produce a read.
Also I liked Ruxxar's reasoning for his Koshi vote.
On June 15 2017 03:49 disformation wrote: @xata: ruxxar gave his reason to vote koshi later on.
On June 15 2017 02:32 ruXxar wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:05 ruXxar wrote: I have read Koshis filter and determined he is mafia.
##vote koshi
Care to elaborate?
Oh also ##vote ruxxar
Sure.
This post:
On June 14 2017 20:22 Koshi wrote:
On June 14 2017 19:49 Holyflare wrote: Wow i got him boys.
Rayn comes in with the defence. Totes mafia too.
btw if you type things like this, one might think you are just throwing suspicion around and not solving the game. You can't call me 3p, and then call rayn mafia with me. I guess you can. But it doesn't make sense. And I am pretty sure my play will not match mafia meta.
I don't like this statement. Comparing his own play to what an expected "mafia meta" is as a defense and validation of his own play seems like he's way too concious of how he's trying to project himself.
Add that on top of all his waffling reads between scum/town, and non-commital it makes it seem to me like he's trying to thread a golden middleground.
but as fefe pointed out:
On June 15 2017 02:40 Fecalfeast wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:32 ruXxar wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
On June 15 2017 02:05 ruXxar wrote: I have read Koshis filter and determined he is mafia.
##vote koshi
Care to elaborate?
Oh also ##vote ruxxar
Sure.
This post:
On June 14 2017 20:22 Koshi wrote:
On June 14 2017 19:49 Holyflare wrote: Wow i got him boys.
Rayn comes in with the defence. Totes mafia too.
btw if you type things like this, one might think you are just throwing suspicion around and not solving the game. You can't call me 3p, and then call rayn mafia with me. I guess you can. But it doesn't make sense. And I am pretty sure my play will not match mafia meta.
I don't like this statement. Comparing his own play to what an expected "mafia meta" is as a defense and validation of his own play seems like he's way too concious of how he's trying to project himself.
Add that on top of all his waffling reads between scum/town, and non-commital it makes it seem to me like he's trying to thread a golden middleground.
I actually like this explanation. Sorta wish you said this instead of just 'read Koshi's filter decided he's mafia' as now I'm suspicious you went back to read his filter after my post to find a post that is suspect.
For the second part:
People generally think this is scummy and it's not. It just generates suspicion because people don't like to see unjustified reads.
Mafia won't ever just carelessly throw out a scum read without giving any thought about how they are going to defend it unless they are under some kind of heavy pressure to produce a read.
Also I liked Ruxxar's reasoning for his Koshi vote.
who do you think is scum?
I'm kinda looking at you tbh.
Look at me as much as you like, but why?
I'm mostly just looking for someone kinda in the middle blending in.
Disfo:
On June 15 2017 07:36 Grackaroni wrote: I like Rayn too though. And I'm ok with a Disfo lynch.
HF:
On June 16 2017 07:32 Grackaroni wrote: Holy flare seems like a very good vote. He's being ridiculously over the top trying to push this SL lynch.
I haven't liked either of his Vivax/Koshi pushes. And he dragged the Vivax one out for the hell of it.
On June 19 2017 03:36 Palmar wrote: Ill figure out why we're all so happy together tomorrow
Where've you been PALMAR?
Scummy scum scum.
"I'm ok with". "Seems like". There's 0 commitment to anything here. Just superficial non-sense without any substance. So obviously he followed up and actually tried to push his scum reads? Nope. Well, at least he voted for his scum reads? Nope.
It's like a total non-commitment to any of his "reads" and just screams "I'm just trying to blend in". And thats the total effort he's put into scumhunting the whole game.
It's not an amazing case. I think I may have even reacted to it with some amount of increduility. what was rayn's reaction to it?
On June 23 2017 07:40 ruXxar wrote: Potential mafia team is SL, Rayn, BH
If you think Rayn and I acted to save SL from the lynch and kill Grack this is a plausible belief. A wrong one, yes, but a plausible one, and I see how you came to hold it.
I'm not really sure how to argue against this, hmm. Like this would have been a lot easier if Grack flipped scum like he should have. This is just a bad coincidence for me.
On June 23 2017 08:04 ruXxar wrote: I'm going to guess that he checked me, that's why he was so certain I was town.
Parity cop doesn't learn alignments
What does it do then?
It compares two people's alignments.
Night 1: Check Adam, no result yet Night 2: Check Bob, and you get the result "same alignment as adam" or "different alignment than adam"
So if Adam and Bob are both scum, you get "same" if they are both town, you get "same" if one is town and one is scum, you get "different"
Sicklucker was almost certainly rolecopped because he was high on the lynch list today, doesn't make ssense for mafia to shoot him. He probably posted something near the start of D3 telling us what his result was if we look back on it. a breadcrumb for us to follow
On June 23 2017 08:13 ruXxar wrote: Can parity cop choose himself as a target?
Depends on the game, but it's actually better to just pick targets from among the town. after all, you can eventually build a chain like this:
N1: Adam, result nothing N2: Adam and Bob have the SAME alignment N3: Bob and Charlie have DIFFERENT alignment N4: Charlie and Dave have SAME alignment then, during N4, Adam dies and flips town. this tells you that Bob is GREEN and Charlie and Dave are RED
it's very common for a pcop check person to get shot or lynched at some point, or for someone to be obvscum or town int eh chain
OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
We now know the wagon yesterday, Grack vs SL, was BETWEEN TWO TOWNIES. Now, at the time of the lynch, Mafia hadn't yet seen SL's claim. So they didn't know he was the cop. But Mafia actually has no reason to push Grack over SL, right? In fact, the "Grack voters/hammerers are scum protecting" theory is just bunk!
I think we gotta take down FeFe or Chez here, I think it's super likely one or both is Mafia, and Mafia took SL's claim at face value; we know now it's a "same aligns" and at the time that we read it we dismissed it as trolling, but THEY looked at that and felt FEAR. Oh man, this also averted an SL mislynch because they HAD to shoot him right away
On June 23 2017 08:22 Fecalfeast wrote: Or, bh, we can assume mafia knows the setup and takes that as a claim but hey yeah let's lynch into the two people likely to be town.
We already had a miller flip as well
why would "I have red checks on these guys" be anything but a cop claim, if as mafia, you see that the RED CHECKS ARE ON TWO OF YOUR RED GUYS
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote: Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous.
no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks
On June 23 2017 08:22 Fecalfeast wrote: Or, bh, we can assume mafia knows the setup and takes that as a claim but hey yeah let's lynch into the two people likely to be town.
We already had a miller flip as well
why would "I have red checks on these guys" be anything but a cop claim, if as mafia, you see that the RED CHECKS ARE ON TWO OF YOUR RED GUYS
man why am I even arguing with you, you're mafia!
Or you see that post, knowing chez and i are towns and that there is a parity cop and think HMm.. maybe sl has a same check on those 2 townies
You'reso scum wowow
So what, your theory here is that mafia had a rolecheck on SL revealing his as parity cop, and I, as Mafia, with the option to either kill Grack or SL hwo I knew was parity cop, hung out in the thread partying it up, then voted Grack? what kind of ass theory is that
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
Because they know SL will claim if push comes to shove, you moron.
Btw. wasn't there a VA comment which went something like "SL will fakeclaim anyways"? What's up with that?!
ok but like, that doesn't matter in my thoery, which is that the Mafia (which includes at least 1 of you and FeFe) learned about SL's identity overnight, like 12 hours ago, then shot him to keep him quiet.
There is a question as to whether Mafia would be able to push a lynch through over a claim, and post-claim SL would be docced if there was a doctor. So it's I suppose plausible that SL was known to scum to be a cop, and they did their best to keep pressure off of him during D3. But this eems like kinda a stretch to me man, quite a stretch!
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
Doesn't this counter the point you're trying to make? If they knew he was parity cop, wouldn't they try to vote him out?
OMG READING COMPREHENSION
I AM POINTING OUT THAT
IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK
THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER
SINCE THEY DIDN'T
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK
SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM
ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER
ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY
LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM
THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA
I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
On June 23 2017 08:35 Chezitwo wrote: Like, this isn't hard to understand dude. They can't expect to lynch him without him claiming. And that is what they do NOT want.
I'm not saying it's inherently right, i'm just mad he misconstrued what I said. surely you understand the chain of logic
but yes if we ALREADY assume mafia has a rolecop, there are two factors at play: 1, they want SL to die, but 2) they don't want him to claim.
this also assumes they rolecopped him during N2, since if they rolecopped him N1, they'd have shot him N2 100%
On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote: Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous.
no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks
I disagree with this point.
If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already.
So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either:
1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing.
Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"?
On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote: Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous.
no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks
I disagree with this point.
If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already.
So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either:
1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing.
Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"?
Because "If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already."
hmm, actually this is a good point for thinking SL is lying about the 2 red checks. I'm not sure how this maps to "so he's definitely a parity cop" though
On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote: Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous.
no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks
I disagree with this point.
If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already.
So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either:
1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing.
Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"?
The same way we just did. But I really doubt they were so sure without a rolecop.
the reason we know he's a parity cop is because he flipped parity cop
On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote: Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous.
no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks
I disagree with this point.
If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already.
So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either:
1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing.
Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"?
Because "If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already."
hmm, actually this is a good point for thinking SL is lying about the 2 red checks. I'm not sure how this maps to "so he's definitely a parity cop" though
I didn't say that he's "defintely a parity cop". I said that the only 2 logical assumptions to make is that he is either bluffing or is a parity cop.
ok fine but the logic still holds then. Mafia saw someone claim 2x redcheck on 2 of them, or 1 of them and 1 green, and the assumption that town would make is "oh he's just trolling" but mafia see sthis and his frightened and shoots him right away for being pcop or just profoundly stupid cop
if he claimed 2x redcheck on greens, I feel like this wouldn't have come to mafia attention, right? like remember we need osme way to explain the SL shot based on "Mafia somehow figured out he was blue"
On June 23 2017 08:42 Fecalfeast wrote: Think of it the way I am.
Assume for a second mafia missed all rolecop checks/has no rolecop.
No blues have flipped or claimed.
If mafia knows the setup (my big assumption here) they absolutely could see sicklucker's 2 redchecks as a samecheck since you know both myself and chez are town (or godfather or framed).
On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote: Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous.
no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks
I disagree with this point.
If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already.
So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either:
1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing.
Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"?
Because "If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already."
hmm, actually this is a good point for thinking SL is lying about the 2 red checks. I'm not sure how this maps to "so he's definitely a parity cop" though
I didn't say that he's "defintely a parity cop". I said that the only 2 logical assumptions to make is that he is either bluffing or is a parity cop.
ok fine but the logic still holds then. Mafia saw someone claim 2x redcheck on 2 of them, or 1 of them and 1 green, and the assumption that town would make is "oh he's just trolling" but mafia see sthis and his frightened and shoots him right away for being pcop or just profoundly stupid cop
if he claimed 2x redcheck on greens, I feel like this wouldn't have come to mafia attention, right? like remember we need osme way to explain the SL shot based on "Mafia somehow figured out he was blue"
Mafia could know the setup
I don't think I've ever on TL played in a game, and I've played in a LOT of games, in which mafia knew the setup and town didn't; with the exception of semi-open mini games with like 3 setups and Mafia could infer it based on their own roles, but so oculd town from the list of possible setups
On June 23 2017 08:46 Chezitwo wrote: But none of this really matters since you can easily identify me as town anyways and the bonus is FF has a very good chance of being town too and we also do not have to lynch SL for playing terribly due to being a role.
yeah actually SL being shot was in a sense super good
On June 23 2017 08:46 Blazinghand wrote: Yeah I think "Mafia knew the setup" is a weird assumption to make, like it's the kind of assumption that's obviously false
that you might make
if you were trying to pretend not to be mafia
by pretending to think something that mafia obviously wouldn't think
dumbtell
yes
it returns
This wasn't a good argument in Rels case and it hasn't become any better.
On June 23 2017 08:46 Blazinghand wrote: Yeah I think "Mafia knew the setup" is a weird assumption to make, like it's the kind of assumption that's obviously false
that you might make
if you were trying to pretend not to be mafia
by pretending to think something that mafia obviously wouldn't think
dumbtell
yes
it returns
This wasn't a good argument in Rels case and it hasn't become any better.
this was kinda a joke sorry
actually not sorry it was a highly solid joke
man is it possible you and FF are town, I had you as town before today
Because "If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already."
hmm, actually this is a good point for thinking SL is lying about the 2 red checks. I'm not sure how this maps to "so he's definitely a parity cop" though
I didn't say that he's "defintely a parity cop". I said that the only 2 logical assumptions to make is that he is either bluffing or is a parity cop.
ok fine but the logic still holds then. Mafia saw someone claim 2x redcheck on 2 of them, or 1 of them and 1 green, and the assumption that town would make is "oh he's just trolling" but mafia see sthis and his frightened and shoots him right away for being pcop or just profoundly stupid cop
if he claimed 2x redcheck on greens, I feel like this wouldn't have come to mafia attention, right? like remember we need osme way to explain the SL shot based on "Mafia somehow figured out he was blue"
Mafia could know the setup
I don't think I've ever on TL played in a game, and I've played in a LOT of games, in which mafia knew the setup and town didn't; with the exception of semi-open mini games with like 3 setups and Mafia could infer it based on their own roles, but so oculd town from the list of possible setups
does this happen now on TL Mafia?
I've never heard of such a thing.
I am pretty sure you were the one saying mafia knows the setup?!
Quote please.
Apologies if you didn't but someone definitely did and it sounds like something you would say. I will not look for it this late.
I didn't say that he's "defintely a parity cop". I said that the only 2 logical assumptions to make is that he is either bluffing or is a parity cop.
ok fine but the logic still holds then. Mafia saw someone claim 2x redcheck on 2 of them, or 1 of them and 1 green, and the assumption that town would make is "oh he's just trolling" but mafia see sthis and his frightened and shoots him right away for being pcop or just profoundly stupid cop
if he claimed 2x redcheck on greens, I feel like this wouldn't have come to mafia attention, right? like remember we need osme way to explain the SL shot based on "Mafia somehow figured out he was blue"
Mafia could know the setup
I don't think I've ever on TL played in a game, and I've played in a LOT of games, in which mafia knew the setup and town didn't; with the exception of semi-open mini games with like 3 setups and Mafia could infer it based on their own roles, but so oculd town from the list of possible setups
does this happen now on TL Mafia?
I've never heard of such a thing.
I am pretty sure you were the one saying mafia knows the setup?!
Quote please.
Apologies if you didn't but someone definitely did and it sounds like something you would say. I will not look for it this late.
It was FecalFeast
Joke again? Can't tell. What I mean was way way earlier in the game.
On June 23 2017 08:50 Fecalfeast wrote: The only fear I have is that if I'm mafia and have a framer I'd want marvs slot framed every night. Such an obvious copcheck
I actually think Chez has been doing fine, was not SRing him or even really thinking about lynching him
On June 15 2017 00:12 Tumblewood wrote: so far i'm thinking ruxxar and disfo have basically dumbtelled by taking sl's claim at fake value. unless i am actually operating on way less irony than them
Don't think they are dumbtelled town for believing a claim. They are more likely town if SL is mafia.
or what do you mean?
believing the claim requires not realizing that sl just made that up. and if rux or disfo are mafia then they should figure that out because it doesn't reconcile at all with the information that they have. i think there's a corner case of this where they're mafia with eversince, but i figure they are still probably town. and if sl is mafia... idk, at least disfo is kinda scrubby and might take it as a legit fakeclaim
Ok. So is it confirmed mafia knows the setup?
On June 15 2017 05:31 Koshi wrote: 1)darthfoley 3)Palmar 4)Rels 7)Tumblewood (do we know mafia knows the setup or did he slip?) 11)raynpelikoneet 12)Xatalos 13)AMG 14)marvellosity 15)Grackaroni 18)annul 20)sicklucker 21)ruXxar 22)Eversince
On June 15 2017 00:12 Tumblewood wrote: so far i'm thinking ruxxar and disfo have basically dumbtelled by taking sl's claim at fake value. unless i am actually operating on way less irony than them
Don't think they are dumbtelled town for believing a claim. They are more likely town if SL is mafia.
or what do you mean?
believing the claim requires not realizing that sl just made that up. and if rux or disfo are mafia then they should figure that out because it doesn't reconcile at all with the information that they have. i think there's a corner case of this where they're mafia with eversince, but i figure they are still probably town. and if sl is mafia... idk, at least disfo is kinda scrubby and might take it as a legit fakeclaim
What do you mean then? If they are mafia without information there is really no problem with them believing the claim. And if they are mafia with information they can still pretend so w.e
But what do you mean with it doesn't reconcile at all with the information that they have
On June 15 2017 00:12 Tumblewood wrote: so far i'm thinking ruxxar and disfo have basically dumbtelled by taking sl's claim at fake value. unless i am actually operating on way less irony than them
Don't think they are dumbtelled town for believing a claim. They are more likely town if SL is mafia.
or what do you mean?
believing the claim requires not realizing that sl just made that up. and if rux or disfo are mafia then they should figure that out because it doesn't reconcile at all with the information that they have. i think there's a corner case of this where they're mafia with eversince, but i figure they are still probably town. and if sl is mafia... idk, at least disfo is kinda scrubby and might take it as a legit fakeclaim
What do you mean then? If they are mafia without information there is really no problem with them believing the claim. And if they are mafia with information they can still pretend so w.e
But what do you mean with it doesn't reconcile at all with the information that they have
when i said that i meant they know the scumteam. so if they see sl claiming a red check, unless they are scum with eversince they should know he's bullshitting
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ok I understand what you were trying to say.
Here's like all of Palmar's post in the last week:
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
On June 16 2017 17:52 Holyflare wrote: 3P: koshi/palmar
How many 3Ps are there?
I have way more flair when I'm 3p
On June 16 2017 20:26 Palmar wrote: I'm just playing single player mafia mostly. Occasionally clicking filters, ignoring the thread, throwing out some opinions.
Life is good.
I'll try to maybe make my statement posts a bit more detailed when I cba.
On June 19 2017 03:36 Palmar wrote: Ill figure out why we're all so happy together tomorrow
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming.
On June 20 2017 22:50 Palmar wrote: my top lyncherios atm:
skynx, btdt and sicklucker.
On June 20 2017 22:57 Palmar wrote: I voted for skynx. He sounds distinctly less towny than he did the last game i played with him. I'm not complaining that the content is different, he just sounds less sassy.
It's a weak vote atm, I'll probably read some more later.
On June 20 2017 22:51 beentheredonethat wrote: the "marv disappears when he's scum" shit is actually valid, I can confirm that from Generic I (I think. Might've been one of the other games I hosted). The scum qt in this game is full of "omg I rolled scum" shit.
Then again, I haven't seen him post here around tl so I don't know how valid it is
also this is one of the few points Palmar can make because he's been absent basically. So I'd treat this with care. chezitwo appeared townie to me
I have not read anything of Chezitwo's posts, it's very much just based on that. Which is why I don't particularly want to lynch him, it basically wouldn't be fair to the guy.
I'm kinda hoping the situation resolves itself through a vigi shot or something.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
He did nothing townie, either. And a super bad reason to not lynch an obvious lurker. He managed to vote each cycle. He even comes in every now and then, throw accusations at people, doesn't follow up AND he freely admits to neither read nor care about this game.
I don't know why we don't lynch (or shoot) such a player.
To be fair, I freely admit to never reading any game I play.
But yes, been extra lazy this game. Just had stuff to do.
On June 20 2017 23:00 Palmar wrote: btdt actually upgraded based on really wanting me dead, I'm a sucker for people hating me.
On June 16 2017 00:40 Palmar wrote: So I clicked two more filters.
beentheredonethat is strange. There's some weird stuff in his filter like gettin into an argument if he's carefree. But there's also some townie sounding, albeit not very useful stuff. He goes in the "could be either category"
AMG hasn't posted at all, lucky me that was an easy filter to read.
I still think voting sicklucker is a good idea and I'm gonna park my vote there. Btdt should probably sheep me as he thinks sicklucker's contributions are atrocious.
Hey, Palmar, we have a sicklucker train going. You care?
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
Hey, Palmar, this guy flipped town.
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 16 2017 00:41 Palmar wrote: Btw, if we're killing inactive/modkill-territory people, we kill AMG, not marv.
Hey, Palmar, lynch into the AMG slot instead of the slot where you're suspecting scum!marv?
Ok the first two things are basically me bitching but the last one is valid and scummy
I actually think the first things are better, especially being wrong (mildly... I never voted him) on darthfoley.
The last part is completely irrelevant. I posted the first post on day 1 for very good reasons (marv is both a great player and a good friend of mine, so keeping him alive would always be optimal). However when it's clear marv isn't playing and is replaced by a smurf, I no longer have any personal attachments to the slot (ie, I really want to play with marv).
So cold calculation leads me to believe it is not unlikely, based on something completely out of his control, that Chezitwo is mafia. However, as I already said, I do not really want to lynch him for that without suspecting him specifically (and not the slot), because it's an asshole thing to do.
I didn't even know we had a train on sicklucker. Is there an actual case I can read somewhere?
I read a few more posts of skynx, I think I'll be unvoting him, he has a few decent posts.
On June 20 2017 23:11 Palmar wrote: Can someone also link to a case on Grack?
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
Apparently it did :D
On June 20 2017 22:46 Palmar wrote:
On June 20 2017 07:40 Chezitwo wrote:
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming.
How am I supposed to believe that a guy like this:
On June 16 2017 07:40 Palmar wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:37 Koshi wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:36 Fecalfeast wrote: Shenannie onto marv?
😇I'm only half joking
nha. 0 posts is not his mafia style. He has some dignity and respect for the game.
He had, tbh.
He's the guy who just quit a game because he rolled mafia, as much as I like him (I love the guy, he's by far guy I've interacted most with outside of mafia that I've met here) he has been rather sketchy in his appearances lately. If anything his silence does point to him being mafia (or simply having forgotten about the game).
does not realize that marvs universal TL absence is obviously not connected to a mafia game he signed up for ages ago? Walk me through this. Do you actually believe marv would stop himself from posting on this forum because of this game? Not to mention that he stopped posting way before it started and he could know his alignment.
marv barely posts outside tl mafia at all, like his entire tl existence is basically tl mafia.
On June 20 2017 23:45 disformation wrote: yeah i think i'll make a decent case on sl later. basically: creates the annul wagon via "read his filter didnt like it" pushes really hard (uncharacteristic for sl) has a false/bad xata town lean/read says xata might be town after all after flip
aaaand:
On June 16 2017 07:54 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:51 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:49 sicklucker wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:47 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:45 Eversince wrote: This is going to make me look like garbage.
I haven't read anything since pg 35ish. Give me the the rough of what's happen between now and then for Xata, Annul, and SL.
I don't have time to fact check so my vote is entirely blind at this point.
sl came to the thread and town read xatalos because xatalos has different reads to most of the game (when in fact xatalos' reads are blending with the rest of the game
sl says i'm mafia for calling all the town leaders mafia and it's my mafia meta when 100% of other games he states my mafia meta is to push lurkers
sl is trying to force the wagon onto someone who is blatantly self-preserving and revealing his plan for all to see, who stubbornly refuses to change his reads despite everyone yelling at him mafia
sl is mafia
I said that because xata had a mafia read on ryan and everyone else town read him. get over it you lost save your buddy
xata doesn't have a mafia read on rayn, he said he can still be scum but doesn't actually say he scum reads him at all
Ruxxar and Fecalfeast are voting together once more. Both rather townread people. Why was everyone so super sure on Fecalfeast again? I think there were valid points but don't remember.
VayneAuthority ended up on Skynx D1 and is now up on the Grack wagon after popping in for a while. So D1 a non-committal vote and D3 joining the wagon in a strong fashion (I think joining a wagon as #5/#6 has more weight than #1/#2) which gives me worries. What are VA's reasons?
Like, people from the annul wagon aren't exactly cleared. We're focusing on Rels, Grack, ES, but left out Ruxxar for a lot of time (for which exact reasons?)
Hmm
Ruxxar, from what little I've read of him, kinda sounds like town, but it's not a strong read.
On June 22 2017 05:50 Palmar wrote: In Vivax we trust
On June 22 2017 08:40 Palmar wrote: I forgot Vivax is bad. That's on me
If they have a rolecop, they deffo checked him Night 2, because why not shoot him right away? If they checked him Night 1, they probably wanted to shoot him Night 2, right after their RB died and before he had any checks.
On June 23 2017 09:12 VayneAuthority wrote: so after some brief reactions, before this gets out of hand
I am town vig and shot SL. Mafia NK either got blocked by veteran or medic saved.
Im going to say its unlikely anyone currently posting is mafia as mafia is probably confused as fuck and waiting to see what happened.
so FF/Chez are probably confirmed town then.
My bad on the shot I guess, he was so close to getting lynched yesterday im surprised he never outright claimed when we likely have a doctor, oh well. Didnt feel like wasting another entire day on him
Good shot.
Yeah, agreed. Ok so scratch all my speculation, Chez and FeFe highly likely to be town.
wait do we actually think VA is town, just to check? only one night kill came through, and I don't have a read on him because I haven't really been playing the game
On June 23 2017 03:20 VayneAuthority wrote: I read a bunch of FF, tumblewood, and eversince games this morning and literally came away with nothing learned. FF posts really similar as town or scum, tumblewood hasn't posted enough to go off of and eversince could either be playing obvious mafia or just lynchbait. not enough has happened in this game to make people reveal much.
We are going into day 4 and have only had fake claims so far and little voting info, makes it really hard for me to figure out the game in my style.
im at something like
chez/dis/ruxxar/BH town
palmar/rels/tumblewood/btdt/rayn/skynx/sl neutral
FF/eversince mafia, and even then im not that confident on either
I see no real way to distinguish anything before we get a 2nd mafia flip either.
On June 23 2017 09:33 ruXxar wrote: If VA is the vigi, and mafia missed their night actions, then I would say that VA is right that its highly unlikely that anyone active around deadline is mafia.
I would like to establish that these people were around at deadline: Fecalfeast Chezitwo Disformation Blazinghand Ruxxar VA - vigi
On June 23 2017 09:39 ruXxar wrote: Im speculating mafia sent their actions to HTS, and since HTS wasn't here, they would have to re-send them to onegu. With 10 minutes to go, it's very possible they could've missed it.
I guess VA can answer this question.
Who did you send your night action to and when?
If so this would be highly good, we'd be in a really solid spot.
so uh i guess we're lynching TW, and we're believing VA's claim for the time being, and we also have ES who is a tracker who says SL visited TW N1, and Chez N2. We believe he got DIFFERENT and TW is the scummer, also Rels did not visit anyone N3
logic works out fine with me. luckily no need to think/play much tonight cause I'm gonna go get LIT
I think we probably can't rely on additional blues solving this game for us. But we have a lot of info now and should be able to basically PoE things down to very favorable odds
On June 26 2017 15:52 ruXxar wrote: Makes it clear that mafia did shoot together with vigi.
Va is as good as confirmed town at this point.
? scum shot chezi two nights in a row?
vet and stuff?
Yep.
"so mafia didn't shoot together with vigi, they shot a different target" so to speak. It was possible to misunderstand your original post as saying that mafia shot the same target as vigi
On June 26 2017 16:03 ruXxar wrote: Can someone tell me what darth foleys role does? "Wondered"
Probably "Wanderer" which is the Tracker version of a Miller. The Wanderer randomly visits people, so if you Track them it looks like they're doing something, or if you Watch someone they visit, they appear as a visitor.
Chezi getting shot ties in with ES being town. ES tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2. SL got DIFFERENt and we flipped TW, who was scum. So Chezi was town. So scum shot him.
The explanation for the single shot during N3 on SL, is that VA, the vigi, shot SL during N3, and Mafia either shot Chezi during N3, or the JK (who, it is claimed, saved ES) saved whoever they shot. Since to kill Chezi requires two kp because he is a vet, and we already killed the Mafia RB and they likely don't have another, the reason they were able to kill him must be because they shot him N3 already, which explains the missing KP and why he died.
So this mean, assuming VA and ES are telling the truth, town has: SL the Parity Cop (confirmed) VA the Vigilante ES the Tracker Chezitwo the Veteran (confirmed) An unknown Jailkeeper
This is all obvious stuff, but i'm putting it in one post mostly for myself here.
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
Neither ES nor VA are "confirmed town" in my opinion. They are claims that are somewhat likely to be true. VA more than ES. But "confirmed" is "confirmed", not something lesser.
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
this part is really interesting. def. something i wouldnt have thought to look at. only that i am not sure if a chatterbox like ruxxar or me would be stopped by that. but i like it.
@bh: what do you think of skynx outside of vca stuff?
Outside of that stuff, Skynx is a must-lynch. I felt skeevy putting him on the kinda-town. TBH under my PoE in either circumstance we still have 1 spare mislynch, which means if Skynx is scum we could put him in there and still be fine and win. I think we basically have this in the bag.
On June 26 2017 17:51 beentheredonethat wrote: even for the peasants who lynch un-cc'ed claims it should be pretty clear that there's no way to doubt these claims.
except if ES faked the tracks and bussed TW and we don't have a tracker at all, only a jailkeeper that was fooled.
no.
I didn't say "let's lynch ES and VA"--in fact, if you read my post, I explicitly say not to.
On June 27 2017 01:36 Palmar wrote: Did anyone ever attempt any kind of a case against Rels? Just so I can read anything on him. I won't read his filter today unless I decide to actually tryhard tonight.
Rayn has been the most outspoken. BH also has been scumreading rels. I have a few jabs here and there.
Yeah not gonna lie those early scumreads were not as solid as they shoulda been. But at this point it's more like "Rels hasn't done things to make him town"--and by this point, most townies should have. I will admit there is a chance he is town. I mean, I think there are 2-3 scum in (Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn) + possibly Skynx. This ALSO means, as a corollary, that there are 2-3 TOWN in that same group. I thought Palm is the #1 lynch but he has started effortposting today which means this pressure either finally got him to play because he's town and lazy, or because he's scum and finally feeling the heat now that we've picked off 2 of his buddies. I need to sit down, read his posts, and decide which. If we think it's the former, we lynch him last out of the PoE group.
I'm fine with Rels lynch I'm just not sure I'm buying the "too scummy to be scum" argument on BTDT. TBH I think we have enough free lynches here that order doesn't matter as long as we're lynching into the scum pool though.
On June 27 2017 06:27 VayneAuthority wrote: well he is somewhat right you know. their reads werent that great and they were scumreading eachother and they were all over the place. Which is why its super obvious there had to be an old player on the mafia team
On June 27 2017 06:27 Skynx wrote: Strategizing night actions is my forte and esprcially N2 doesn't makes sense. DF and you are the universal townread leaders, if scum commits on DF means they are not medic dodging, on top of that you have 2kp against 1 possible save so i would 100% kill you N2.
VA mentioned earlier that N1 kills points towards an elder member of tl mafia being scum, with which i agree and in that case they surely wouldn't not shoot you.
Coincidence? Don't mind my paranoia over here.
I don't think we should be paranoid about VA. The single death N3 is accounted for
On June 28 2017 01:11 Rels wrote: Let's not forget the numerous days of no-content posts since the beginning of the game. Never taking risk, but always there. Talking about irrelevant stuff and having almost no reads. Take a look at his filter and try to find a post that push the game forward. They are almost non existent. In fact here are some posts that look involved 'cause they're big, but don't push the game: + Show Spoiler +
On June 21 2017 18:34 disformation wrote: looking back at fefe: last post:
On June 21 2017 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote: So I went into VA's filter almost looking for reasons to scumread him and now that I made half a case about his read progression on grack and skynx...
I kinda think he's just low effort town.. The way he comes across seems so casual and while like 80% of his posts are setup talk or useless he seems to be looking at the game from a low information point of view and hasn't pushed any sort of agenda (scum or town) that I can see.
town. fairly sure.
Why is that townish? "I made a half-assed attempt to do something and my result is a not-really-committed townread"
How is that townish?
*sigh* why would scum do that? scum would just finish up the half finished case to look like having scumreads and done stuff. realizing half way through a case that you think the guy might actually be town is far more likely to come from town. aaaand the read isnt even as shitty as you make it out to be. "i cant see any agenda in va's filter" is a pretty strong statement.
Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it.
On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular.
So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly.
But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them.
So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly.
so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
Ok, so you DO understand me, you're just disagreeing loudly cause you know I caught you
Look at it this way Rels
There's like, one setup post, with like 7 lines in it. It's right there.
Now what do you think is more likely here, from an outside view? 1. A townie somehow doesn't know what's going on in the OP, and is actively planning around this lack of knowledge (hoping to have a way to stop 2 kp). Despite planning around this lack of knowledge he never looks at the OP, not when he signed up, not when the game started, not when 2 deaths came through N1, and so on. And so, somehow he goes through this existence of hoping/planning around this "knowledge" that he never even spent a second to check on. 2. A Mafia, is keenly aware of how Mafia KP works, but thinks, "ah hah, I could FAKE not knowing how mafia works, thereby PROVING that I am town"
Which is more likely? It's obviously #2. Mafia are willing to lie about everything: emotions, real life issues, being busy, being sick, reading the OP, etc. Townies, will always be curious and want to know how to play the game. And some may be oblivious, but most will not. Most of the time you see something of this caliber executed by someone at this time in the game, it is a mafia move to generate towniness
that read on me that makes no sense.
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
Doesn't this counter the point you're trying to make? If they knew he was parity cop, wouldn't they try to vote him out?
OMG READING COMPREHENSION
I AM POINTING OUT THAT
IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK
THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER
SINCE THEY DIDN'T
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK
SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM
ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER
ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY
LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM
THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA
I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
Same.
On June 23 2017 09:00 Blazinghand wrote: Here's like all of Palmar's post in the last week:
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
On June 16 2017 20:26 Palmar wrote: I'm just playing single player mafia mostly. Occasionally clicking filters, ignoring the thread, throwing out some opinions.
Life is good.
I'll try to maybe make my statement posts a bit more detailed when I cba.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
On June 20 2017 22:57 Palmar wrote: I voted for skynx. He sounds distinctly less towny than he did the last game i played with him. I'm not complaining that the content is different, he just sounds less sassy.
It's a weak vote atm, I'll probably read some more later.
On June 20 2017 22:51 beentheredonethat wrote: the "marv disappears when he's scum" shit is actually valid, I can confirm that from Generic I (I think. Might've been one of the other games I hosted). The scum qt in this game is full of "omg I rolled scum" shit.
Then again, I haven't seen him post here around tl so I don't know how valid it is
also this is one of the few points Palmar can make because he's been absent basically. So I'd treat this with care. chezitwo appeared townie to me
I have not read anything of Chezitwo's posts, it's very much just based on that. Which is why I don't particularly want to lynch him, it basically wouldn't be fair to the guy.
I'm kinda hoping the situation resolves itself through a vigi shot or something.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
He did nothing townie, either. And a super bad reason to not lynch an obvious lurker. He managed to vote each cycle. He even comes in every now and then, throw accusations at people, doesn't follow up AND he freely admits to neither read nor care about this game.
I don't know why we don't lynch (or shoot) such a player.
To be fair, I freely admit to never reading any game I play.
But yes, been extra lazy this game. Just had stuff to do.
On June 16 2017 00:40 Palmar wrote: So I clicked two more filters.
beentheredonethat is strange. There's some weird stuff in his filter like gettin into an argument if he's carefree. But there's also some townie sounding, albeit not very useful stuff. He goes in the "could be either category"
AMG hasn't posted at all, lucky me that was an easy filter to read.
I still think voting sicklucker is a good idea and I'm gonna park my vote there. Btdt should probably sheep me as he thinks sicklucker's contributions are atrocious.
Hey, Palmar, we have a sicklucker train going. You care?
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
Hey, Palmar, this guy flipped town.
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 16 2017 00:41 Palmar wrote: Btw, if we're killing inactive/modkill-territory people, we kill AMG, not marv.
Hey, Palmar, lynch into the AMG slot instead of the slot where you're suspecting scum!marv?
Ok the first two things are basically me bitching but the last one is valid and scummy
I actually think the first things are better, especially being wrong (mildly... I never voted him) on darthfoley.
The last part is completely irrelevant. I posted the first post on day 1 for very good reasons (marv is both a great player and a good friend of mine, so keeping him alive would always be optimal). However when it's clear marv isn't playing and is replaced by a smurf, I no longer have any personal attachments to the slot (ie, I really want to play with marv).
So cold calculation leads me to believe it is not unlikely, based on something completely out of his control, that Chezitwo is mafia. However, as I already said, I do not really want to lynch him for that without suspecting him specifically (and not the slot), because it's an asshole thing to do.
I didn't even know we had a train on sicklucker. Is there an actual case I can read somewhere?
I read a few more posts of skynx, I think I'll be unvoting him, he has a few decent posts.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
Apparently it did :D
On June 20 2017 22:46 Palmar wrote:
On June 20 2017 07:40 Chezitwo wrote:
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming.
How am I supposed to believe that a guy like this:
On June 16 2017 07:40 Palmar wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:37 Koshi wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:36 Fecalfeast wrote: Shenannie onto marv?
😇I'm only half joking
nha. 0 posts is not his mafia style. He has some dignity and respect for the game.
He had, tbh.
He's the guy who just quit a game because he rolled mafia, as much as I like him (I love the guy, he's by far guy I've interacted most with outside of mafia that I've met here) he has been rather sketchy in his appearances lately. If anything his silence does point to him being mafia (or simply having forgotten about the game).
does not realize that marvs universal TL absence is obviously not connected to a mafia game he signed up for ages ago? Walk me through this. Do you actually believe marv would stop himself from posting on this forum because of this game? Not to mention that he stopped posting way before it started and he could know his alignment.
marv barely posts outside tl mafia at all, like his entire tl existence is basically tl mafia.
On June 20 2017 23:45 disformation wrote: yeah i think i'll make a decent case on sl later. basically: creates the annul wagon via "read his filter didnt like it" pushes really hard (uncharacteristic for sl) has a false/bad xata town lean/read says xata might be town after all after flip
aaaand:
On June 16 2017 07:54 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:51 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:49 sicklucker wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:47 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:45 Eversince wrote: This is going to make me look like garbage.
I haven't read anything since pg 35ish. Give me the the rough of what's happen between now and then for Xata, Annul, and SL.
I don't have time to fact check so my vote is entirely blind at this point.
sl came to the thread and town read xatalos because xatalos has different reads to most of the game (when in fact xatalos' reads are blending with the rest of the game
sl says i'm mafia for calling all the town leaders mafia and it's my mafia meta when 100% of other games he states my mafia meta is to push lurkers
sl is trying to force the wagon onto someone who is blatantly self-preserving and revealing his plan for all to see, who stubbornly refuses to change his reads despite everyone yelling at him mafia
sl is mafia
I said that because xata had a mafia read on ryan and everyone else town read him. get over it you lost save your buddy
xata doesn't have a mafia read on rayn, he said he can still be scum but doesn't actually say he scum reads him at all
Ruxxar and Fecalfeast are voting together once more. Both rather townread people. Why was everyone so super sure on Fecalfeast again? I think there were valid points but don't remember.
VayneAuthority ended up on Skynx D1 and is now up on the Grack wagon after popping in for a while. So D1 a non-committal vote and D3 joining the wagon in a strong fashion (I think joining a wagon as #5/#6 has more weight than #1/#2) which gives me worries. What are VA's reasons?
Like, people from the annul wagon aren't exactly cleared. We're focusing on Rels, Grack, ES, but left out Ruxxar for a lot of time (for which exact reasons?)
Hmm
Ruxxar, from what little I've read of him, kinda sounds like town, but it's not a strong read.
On June 22 2017 08:40 Palmar wrote: I forgot Vivax is bad. That's on me
Listing all Palmar's posts.
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
Setup analysis to get a POE list. Also see my post just above.
I always owned it. Also my PoE List, you say that like it's bad or something, but I actually think it's right on the money. we got this wrapped up.
Anyways I basically don't buy this comeback from Palmar so I'm voting him. He remains my top dude.
On June 28 2017 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't think BH will flip scum. He's just having fun. Also your points on him are wrong. I think it's pretty bs to say "BH does nothing" when he has jsut given a list of 4 people he thinks we find the last mafia in -> trying to lynch into that list. Then you quote one part of his reasoning and say it is flimsy when in reality it's more of a poe list (as you even point out yourself in the SAME post)....
my point IS that when he finally tries today, his reasonnings are POE. Not taking any risk, not directly pushing someone. I don't think he's even voting
so just out of curiousity, why do we think there's no JK? this is the second time I've heard this Didn't ES claim getting RBed? If scum have a second roleblocker that's possible, but it seems like a JK is also a possibility here.
On June 28 2017 01:41 Blazinghand wrote: u fokin wot m8 i'll hook you in the gabbr
On June 28 2017 01:11 Rels wrote: Let's not forget the numerous days of no-content posts since the beginning of the game. Never taking risk, but always there. Talking about irrelevant stuff and having almost no reads. Take a look at his filter and try to find a post that push the game forward. They are almost non existent. In fact here are some posts that look involved 'cause they're big, but don't push the game: + Show Spoiler +
On June 21 2017 18:34 disformation wrote: looking back at fefe: last post:
On June 21 2017 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote: So I went into VA's filter almost looking for reasons to scumread him and now that I made half a case about his read progression on grack and skynx...
I kinda think he's just low effort town.. The way he comes across seems so casual and while like 80% of his posts are setup talk or useless he seems to be looking at the game from a low information point of view and hasn't pushed any sort of agenda (scum or town) that I can see.
town. fairly sure.
Why is that townish? "I made a half-assed attempt to do something and my result is a not-really-committed townread"
How is that townish?
*sigh* why would scum do that? scum would just finish up the half finished case to look like having scumreads and done stuff. realizing half way through a case that you think the guy might actually be town is far more likely to come from town. aaaand the read isnt even as shitty as you make it out to be. "i cant see any agenda in va's filter" is a pretty strong statement.
Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it.
On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular.
So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly.
But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them.
So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly.
so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
Ok, so you DO understand me, you're just disagreeing loudly cause you know I caught you
Look at it this way Rels
There's like, one setup post, with like 7 lines in it. It's right there.
Now what do you think is more likely here, from an outside view? 1. A townie somehow doesn't know what's going on in the OP, and is actively planning around this lack of knowledge (hoping to have a way to stop 2 kp). Despite planning around this lack of knowledge he never looks at the OP, not when he signed up, not when the game started, not when 2 deaths came through N1, and so on. And so, somehow he goes through this existence of hoping/planning around this "knowledge" that he never even spent a second to check on. 2. A Mafia, is keenly aware of how Mafia KP works, but thinks, "ah hah, I could FAKE not knowing how mafia works, thereby PROVING that I am town"
Which is more likely? It's obviously #2. Mafia are willing to lie about everything: emotions, real life issues, being busy, being sick, reading the OP, etc. Townies, will always be curious and want to know how to play the game. And some may be oblivious, but most will not. Most of the time you see something of this caliber executed by someone at this time in the game, it is a mafia move to generate towniness
that read on me that makes no sense.
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
Doesn't this counter the point you're trying to make? If they knew he was parity cop, wouldn't they try to vote him out?
OMG READING COMPREHENSION
I AM POINTING OUT THAT
IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK
THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER
SINCE THEY DIDN'T
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK
SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM
ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER
ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY
LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM
THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA
I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
Same.
On June 23 2017 09:00 Blazinghand wrote: Here's like all of Palmar's post in the last week:
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
On June 16 2017 20:26 Palmar wrote: I'm just playing single player mafia mostly. Occasionally clicking filters, ignoring the thread, throwing out some opinions.
Life is good.
I'll try to maybe make my statement posts a bit more detailed when I cba.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
On June 20 2017 22:57 Palmar wrote: I voted for skynx. He sounds distinctly less towny than he did the last game i played with him. I'm not complaining that the content is different, he just sounds less sassy.
It's a weak vote atm, I'll probably read some more later.
On June 20 2017 22:51 beentheredonethat wrote: the "marv disappears when he's scum" shit is actually valid, I can confirm that from Generic I (I think. Might've been one of the other games I hosted). The scum qt in this game is full of "omg I rolled scum" shit.
Then again, I haven't seen him post here around tl so I don't know how valid it is
also this is one of the few points Palmar can make because he's been absent basically. So I'd treat this with care. chezitwo appeared townie to me
I have not read anything of Chezitwo's posts, it's very much just based on that. Which is why I don't particularly want to lynch him, it basically wouldn't be fair to the guy.
I'm kinda hoping the situation resolves itself through a vigi shot or something.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
He did nothing townie, either. And a super bad reason to not lynch an obvious lurker. He managed to vote each cycle. He even comes in every now and then, throw accusations at people, doesn't follow up AND he freely admits to neither read nor care about this game.
I don't know why we don't lynch (or shoot) such a player.
To be fair, I freely admit to never reading any game I play.
But yes, been extra lazy this game. Just had stuff to do.
On June 16 2017 00:40 Palmar wrote: So I clicked two more filters.
beentheredonethat is strange. There's some weird stuff in his filter like gettin into an argument if he's carefree. But there's also some townie sounding, albeit not very useful stuff. He goes in the "could be either category"
AMG hasn't posted at all, lucky me that was an easy filter to read.
I still think voting sicklucker is a good idea and I'm gonna park my vote there. Btdt should probably sheep me as he thinks sicklucker's contributions are atrocious.
Hey, Palmar, we have a sicklucker train going. You care?
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
Hey, Palmar, this guy flipped town.
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 16 2017 00:41 Palmar wrote: Btw, if we're killing inactive/modkill-territory people, we kill AMG, not marv.
Hey, Palmar, lynch into the AMG slot instead of the slot where you're suspecting scum!marv?
Ok the first two things are basically me bitching but the last one is valid and scummy
I actually think the first things are better, especially being wrong (mildly... I never voted him) on darthfoley.
The last part is completely irrelevant. I posted the first post on day 1 for very good reasons (marv is both a great player and a good friend of mine, so keeping him alive would always be optimal). However when it's clear marv isn't playing and is replaced by a smurf, I no longer have any personal attachments to the slot (ie, I really want to play with marv).
So cold calculation leads me to believe it is not unlikely, based on something completely out of his control, that Chezitwo is mafia. However, as I already said, I do not really want to lynch him for that without suspecting him specifically (and not the slot), because it's an asshole thing to do.
I didn't even know we had a train on sicklucker. Is there an actual case I can read somewhere?
I read a few more posts of skynx, I think I'll be unvoting him, he has a few decent posts.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
Apparently it did :D
On June 20 2017 22:46 Palmar wrote:
On June 20 2017 07:40 Chezitwo wrote:
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming.
How am I supposed to believe that a guy like this:
On June 16 2017 07:40 Palmar wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:37 Koshi wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:36 Fecalfeast wrote: Shenannie onto marv?
😇I'm only half joking
nha. 0 posts is not his mafia style. He has some dignity and respect for the game.
He had, tbh.
He's the guy who just quit a game because he rolled mafia, as much as I like him (I love the guy, he's by far guy I've interacted most with outside of mafia that I've met here) he has been rather sketchy in his appearances lately. If anything his silence does point to him being mafia (or simply having forgotten about the game).
does not realize that marvs universal TL absence is obviously not connected to a mafia game he signed up for ages ago? Walk me through this. Do you actually believe marv would stop himself from posting on this forum because of this game? Not to mention that he stopped posting way before it started and he could know his alignment.
marv barely posts outside tl mafia at all, like his entire tl existence is basically tl mafia.
On June 20 2017 23:45 disformation wrote: yeah i think i'll make a decent case on sl later. basically: creates the annul wagon via "read his filter didnt like it" pushes really hard (uncharacteristic for sl) has a false/bad xata town lean/read says xata might be town after all after flip
aaaand:
On June 16 2017 07:54 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:51 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:49 sicklucker wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:47 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:45 Eversince wrote: This is going to make me look like garbage.
I haven't read anything since pg 35ish. Give me the the rough of what's happen between now and then for Xata, Annul, and SL.
I don't have time to fact check so my vote is entirely blind at this point.
sl came to the thread and town read xatalos because xatalos has different reads to most of the game (when in fact xatalos' reads are blending with the rest of the game
sl says i'm mafia for calling all the town leaders mafia and it's my mafia meta when 100% of other games he states my mafia meta is to push lurkers
sl is trying to force the wagon onto someone who is blatantly self-preserving and revealing his plan for all to see, who stubbornly refuses to change his reads despite everyone yelling at him mafia
sl is mafia
I said that because xata had a mafia read on ryan and everyone else town read him. get over it you lost save your buddy
xata doesn't have a mafia read on rayn, he said he can still be scum but doesn't actually say he scum reads him at all
Ruxxar and Fecalfeast are voting together once more. Both rather townread people. Why was everyone so super sure on Fecalfeast again? I think there were valid points but don't remember.
VayneAuthority ended up on Skynx D1 and is now up on the Grack wagon after popping in for a while. So D1 a non-committal vote and D3 joining the wagon in a strong fashion (I think joining a wagon as #5/#6 has more weight than #1/#2) which gives me worries. What are VA's reasons?
Like, people from the annul wagon aren't exactly cleared. We're focusing on Rels, Grack, ES, but left out Ruxxar for a lot of time (for which exact reasons?)
Hmm
Ruxxar, from what little I've read of him, kinda sounds like town, but it's not a strong read.
On June 22 2017 08:40 Palmar wrote: I forgot Vivax is bad. That's on me
Listing all Palmar's posts.
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
Setup analysis to get a POE list. Also see my post just above.
I always owned it. Also my PoE List, you say that like it's bad or something, but I actually think it's right on the money. we got this wrapped up.
Anyways I basically don't buy this comeback from Palmar so I'm voting him. He remains my top dude.
##vote Palmar
why ? He's pushing BTDT, who "played weird all game" apparently ? Palmar comes back and call one of your POE scum. What should he have done to be town in your book ?
Nothing, there's nothing he could have done today, actually. not with how he's played so far.
On June 28 2017 01:41 Blazinghand wrote: u fokin wot m8 i'll hook you in the gabbr
On June 28 2017 01:11 Rels wrote: Let's not forget the numerous days of no-content posts since the beginning of the game. Never taking risk, but always there. Talking about irrelevant stuff and having almost no reads. Take a look at his filter and try to find a post that push the game forward. They are almost non existent. In fact here are some posts that look involved 'cause they're big, but don't push the game: + Show Spoiler +
On June 21 2017 18:34 disformation wrote: looking back at fefe: last post:
On June 21 2017 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote: So I went into VA's filter almost looking for reasons to scumread him and now that I made half a case about his read progression on grack and skynx...
I kinda think he's just low effort town.. The way he comes across seems so casual and while like 80% of his posts are setup talk or useless he seems to be looking at the game from a low information point of view and hasn't pushed any sort of agenda (scum or town) that I can see.
town. fairly sure.
Why is that townish? "I made a half-assed attempt to do something and my result is a not-really-committed townread"
How is that townish?
*sigh* why would scum do that? scum would just finish up the half finished case to look like having scumreads and done stuff. realizing half way through a case that you think the guy might actually be town is far more likely to come from town. aaaand the read isnt even as shitty as you make it out to be. "i cant see any agenda in va's filter" is a pretty strong statement.
Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it.
On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular.
So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly.
But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them.
So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly.
so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
Ok, so you DO understand me, you're just disagreeing loudly cause you know I caught you
Look at it this way Rels
There's like, one setup post, with like 7 lines in it. It's right there.
Now what do you think is more likely here, from an outside view? 1. A townie somehow doesn't know what's going on in the OP, and is actively planning around this lack of knowledge (hoping to have a way to stop 2 kp). Despite planning around this lack of knowledge he never looks at the OP, not when he signed up, not when the game started, not when 2 deaths came through N1, and so on. And so, somehow he goes through this existence of hoping/planning around this "knowledge" that he never even spent a second to check on. 2. A Mafia, is keenly aware of how Mafia KP works, but thinks, "ah hah, I could FAKE not knowing how mafia works, thereby PROVING that I am town"
Which is more likely? It's obviously #2. Mafia are willing to lie about everything: emotions, real life issues, being busy, being sick, reading the OP, etc. Townies, will always be curious and want to know how to play the game. And some may be oblivious, but most will not. Most of the time you see something of this caliber executed by someone at this time in the game, it is a mafia move to generate towniness
that read on me that makes no sense.
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
Doesn't this counter the point you're trying to make? If they knew he was parity cop, wouldn't they try to vote him out?
OMG READING COMPREHENSION
I AM POINTING OUT THAT
IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK
THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER
SINCE THEY DIDN'T
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK
SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM
ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER
ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY
LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM
THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA
I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
Same.
On June 23 2017 09:00 Blazinghand wrote: Here's like all of Palmar's post in the last week:
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
On June 16 2017 20:26 Palmar wrote: I'm just playing single player mafia mostly. Occasionally clicking filters, ignoring the thread, throwing out some opinions.
Life is good.
I'll try to maybe make my statement posts a bit more detailed when I cba.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
On June 20 2017 22:57 Palmar wrote: I voted for skynx. He sounds distinctly less towny than he did the last game i played with him. I'm not complaining that the content is different, he just sounds less sassy.
It's a weak vote atm, I'll probably read some more later.
On June 20 2017 22:51 beentheredonethat wrote: the "marv disappears when he's scum" shit is actually valid, I can confirm that from Generic I (I think. Might've been one of the other games I hosted). The scum qt in this game is full of "omg I rolled scum" shit.
Then again, I haven't seen him post here around tl so I don't know how valid it is
also this is one of the few points Palmar can make because he's been absent basically. So I'd treat this with care. chezitwo appeared townie to me
I have not read anything of Chezitwo's posts, it's very much just based on that. Which is why I don't particularly want to lynch him, it basically wouldn't be fair to the guy.
I'm kinda hoping the situation resolves itself through a vigi shot or something.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
He did nothing townie, either. And a super bad reason to not lynch an obvious lurker. He managed to vote each cycle. He even comes in every now and then, throw accusations at people, doesn't follow up AND he freely admits to neither read nor care about this game.
I don't know why we don't lynch (or shoot) such a player.
To be fair, I freely admit to never reading any game I play.
But yes, been extra lazy this game. Just had stuff to do.
On June 16 2017 00:40 Palmar wrote: So I clicked two more filters.
beentheredonethat is strange. There's some weird stuff in his filter like gettin into an argument if he's carefree. But there's also some townie sounding, albeit not very useful stuff. He goes in the "could be either category"
AMG hasn't posted at all, lucky me that was an easy filter to read.
I still think voting sicklucker is a good idea and I'm gonna park my vote there. Btdt should probably sheep me as he thinks sicklucker's contributions are atrocious.
Hey, Palmar, we have a sicklucker train going. You care?
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
Hey, Palmar, this guy flipped town.
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 16 2017 00:41 Palmar wrote: Btw, if we're killing inactive/modkill-territory people, we kill AMG, not marv.
Hey, Palmar, lynch into the AMG slot instead of the slot where you're suspecting scum!marv?
Ok the first two things are basically me bitching but the last one is valid and scummy
I actually think the first things are better, especially being wrong (mildly... I never voted him) on darthfoley.
The last part is completely irrelevant. I posted the first post on day 1 for very good reasons (marv is both a great player and a good friend of mine, so keeping him alive would always be optimal). However when it's clear marv isn't playing and is replaced by a smurf, I no longer have any personal attachments to the slot (ie, I really want to play with marv).
So cold calculation leads me to believe it is not unlikely, based on something completely out of his control, that Chezitwo is mafia. However, as I already said, I do not really want to lynch him for that without suspecting him specifically (and not the slot), because it's an asshole thing to do.
I didn't even know we had a train on sicklucker. Is there an actual case I can read somewhere?
I read a few more posts of skynx, I think I'll be unvoting him, he has a few decent posts.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
Apparently it did :D
On June 20 2017 22:46 Palmar wrote:
On June 20 2017 07:40 Chezitwo wrote:
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming.
How am I supposed to believe that a guy like this:
On June 16 2017 07:40 Palmar wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:37 Koshi wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:36 Fecalfeast wrote: Shenannie onto marv?
😇I'm only half joking
nha. 0 posts is not his mafia style. He has some dignity and respect for the game.
He had, tbh.
He's the guy who just quit a game because he rolled mafia, as much as I like him (I love the guy, he's by far guy I've interacted most with outside of mafia that I've met here) he has been rather sketchy in his appearances lately. If anything his silence does point to him being mafia (or simply having forgotten about the game).
does not realize that marvs universal TL absence is obviously not connected to a mafia game he signed up for ages ago? Walk me through this. Do you actually believe marv would stop himself from posting on this forum because of this game? Not to mention that he stopped posting way before it started and he could know his alignment.
marv barely posts outside tl mafia at all, like his entire tl existence is basically tl mafia.
On June 20 2017 23:45 disformation wrote: yeah i think i'll make a decent case on sl later. basically: creates the annul wagon via "read his filter didnt like it" pushes really hard (uncharacteristic for sl) has a false/bad xata town lean/read says xata might be town after all after flip
aaaand:
On June 16 2017 07:54 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:51 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:49 sicklucker wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:47 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:45 Eversince wrote: This is going to make me look like garbage.
I haven't read anything since pg 35ish. Give me the the rough of what's happen between now and then for Xata, Annul, and SL.
I don't have time to fact check so my vote is entirely blind at this point.
sl came to the thread and town read xatalos because xatalos has different reads to most of the game (when in fact xatalos' reads are blending with the rest of the game
sl says i'm mafia for calling all the town leaders mafia and it's my mafia meta when 100% of other games he states my mafia meta is to push lurkers
sl is trying to force the wagon onto someone who is blatantly self-preserving and revealing his plan for all to see, who stubbornly refuses to change his reads despite everyone yelling at him mafia
sl is mafia
I said that because xata had a mafia read on ryan and everyone else town read him. get over it you lost save your buddy
xata doesn't have a mafia read on rayn, he said he can still be scum but doesn't actually say he scum reads him at all
Ruxxar and Fecalfeast are voting together once more. Both rather townread people. Why was everyone so super sure on Fecalfeast again? I think there were valid points but don't remember.
VayneAuthority ended up on Skynx D1 and is now up on the Grack wagon after popping in for a while. So D1 a non-committal vote and D3 joining the wagon in a strong fashion (I think joining a wagon as #5/#6 has more weight than #1/#2) which gives me worries. What are VA's reasons?
Like, people from the annul wagon aren't exactly cleared. We're focusing on Rels, Grack, ES, but left out Ruxxar for a lot of time (for which exact reasons?)
Hmm
Ruxxar, from what little I've read of him, kinda sounds like town, but it's not a strong read.
On June 22 2017 08:40 Palmar wrote: I forgot Vivax is bad. That's on me
Listing all Palmar's posts.
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
Setup analysis to get a POE list. Also see my post just above.
I always owned it. Also my PoE List, you say that like it's bad or something, but I actually think it's right on the money. we got this wrapped up.
Anyways I basically don't buy this comeback from Palmar so I'm voting him. He remains my top dude.
##vote Palmar
why ? He's pushing BTDT, who "played weird all game" apparently ? Palmar comes back and call one of your POE scum. What should he have done to be town in your book ?
Nothing, there's nothing he could have done today, actually. not with how he's played so far.
In fact I should have just voted for him at the start of the day. But he was making a lot of posts and I got nervous and had some last minute fear. Palmar's a smart guy. I guess I just choked. But whatever. There should have been, literally nothing that could convince me, and now I know that.
On June 28 2017 01:41 Blazinghand wrote: u fokin wot m8 i'll hook you in the gabbr
On June 28 2017 01:11 Rels wrote: Let's not forget the numerous days of no-content posts since the beginning of the game. Never taking risk, but always there. Talking about irrelevant stuff and having almost no reads. Take a look at his filter and try to find a post that push the game forward. They are almost non existent. In fact here are some posts that look involved 'cause they're big, but don't push the game: + Show Spoiler +
On June 21 2017 18:34 disformation wrote: looking back at fefe: last post:
On June 21 2017 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote: So I went into VA's filter almost looking for reasons to scumread him and now that I made half a case about his read progression on grack and skynx...
I kinda think he's just low effort town.. The way he comes across seems so casual and while like 80% of his posts are setup talk or useless he seems to be looking at the game from a low information point of view and hasn't pushed any sort of agenda (scum or town) that I can see.
town. fairly sure.
Why is that townish? "I made a half-assed attempt to do something and my result is a not-really-committed townread"
How is that townish?
*sigh* why would scum do that? scum would just finish up the half finished case to look like having scumreads and done stuff. realizing half way through a case that you think the guy might actually be town is far more likely to come from town. aaaand the read isnt even as shitty as you make it out to be. "i cant see any agenda in va's filter" is a pretty strong statement.
Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it.
On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular.
So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly.
But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them.
So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly.
so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce
On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote: lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time. Discussion closed.
Ok, so you DO understand me, you're just disagreeing loudly cause you know I caught you
Look at it this way Rels
There's like, one setup post, with like 7 lines in it. It's right there.
Now what do you think is more likely here, from an outside view? 1. A townie somehow doesn't know what's going on in the OP, and is actively planning around this lack of knowledge (hoping to have a way to stop 2 kp). Despite planning around this lack of knowledge he never looks at the OP, not when he signed up, not when the game started, not when 2 deaths came through N1, and so on. And so, somehow he goes through this existence of hoping/planning around this "knowledge" that he never even spent a second to check on. 2. A Mafia, is keenly aware of how Mafia KP works, but thinks, "ah hah, I could FAKE not knowing how mafia works, thereby PROVING that I am town"
Which is more likely? It's obviously #2. Mafia are willing to lie about everything: emotions, real life issues, being busy, being sick, reading the OP, etc. Townies, will always be curious and want to know how to play the game. And some may be oblivious, but most will not. Most of the time you see something of this caliber executed by someone at this time in the game, it is a mafia move to generate towniness
that read on me that makes no sense.
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote: OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:
On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote: so lets start again:
town: fefe chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases
I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
Doesn't this counter the point you're trying to make? If they knew he was parity cop, wouldn't they try to vote him out?
OMG READING COMPREHENSION
I AM POINTING OUT THAT
IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK
THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER
SINCE THEY DIDN'T
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK
SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM
ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER
ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY
LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM
THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA
I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
Same.
On June 23 2017 09:00 Blazinghand wrote: Here's like all of Palmar's post in the last week:
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
On June 16 2017 20:26 Palmar wrote: I'm just playing single player mafia mostly. Occasionally clicking filters, ignoring the thread, throwing out some opinions.
Life is good.
I'll try to maybe make my statement posts a bit more detailed when I cba.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
On June 20 2017 22:57 Palmar wrote: I voted for skynx. He sounds distinctly less towny than he did the last game i played with him. I'm not complaining that the content is different, he just sounds less sassy.
It's a weak vote atm, I'll probably read some more later.
On June 20 2017 22:51 beentheredonethat wrote: the "marv disappears when he's scum" shit is actually valid, I can confirm that from Generic I (I think. Might've been one of the other games I hosted). The scum qt in this game is full of "omg I rolled scum" shit.
Then again, I haven't seen him post here around tl so I don't know how valid it is
also this is one of the few points Palmar can make because he's been absent basically. So I'd treat this with care. chezitwo appeared townie to me
I have not read anything of Chezitwo's posts, it's very much just based on that. Which is why I don't particularly want to lynch him, it basically wouldn't be fair to the guy.
I'm kinda hoping the situation resolves itself through a vigi shot or something.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
He did nothing townie, either. And a super bad reason to not lynch an obvious lurker. He managed to vote each cycle. He even comes in every now and then, throw accusations at people, doesn't follow up AND he freely admits to neither read nor care about this game.
I don't know why we don't lynch (or shoot) such a player.
To be fair, I freely admit to never reading any game I play.
But yes, been extra lazy this game. Just had stuff to do.
On June 16 2017 00:40 Palmar wrote: So I clicked two more filters.
beentheredonethat is strange. There's some weird stuff in his filter like gettin into an argument if he's carefree. But there's also some townie sounding, albeit not very useful stuff. He goes in the "could be either category"
AMG hasn't posted at all, lucky me that was an easy filter to read.
I still think voting sicklucker is a good idea and I'm gonna park my vote there. Btdt should probably sheep me as he thinks sicklucker's contributions are atrocious.
Hey, Palmar, we have a sicklucker train going. You care?
On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote: I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia.
Hey, Palmar, this guy flipped town.
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
On June 16 2017 00:41 Palmar wrote: Btw, if we're killing inactive/modkill-territory people, we kill AMG, not marv.
Hey, Palmar, lynch into the AMG slot instead of the slot where you're suspecting scum!marv?
Ok the first two things are basically me bitching but the last one is valid and scummy
I actually think the first things are better, especially being wrong (mildly... I never voted him) on darthfoley.
The last part is completely irrelevant. I posted the first post on day 1 for very good reasons (marv is both a great player and a good friend of mine, so keeping him alive would always be optimal). However when it's clear marv isn't playing and is replaced by a smurf, I no longer have any personal attachments to the slot (ie, I really want to play with marv).
So cold calculation leads me to believe it is not unlikely, based on something completely out of his control, that Chezitwo is mafia. However, as I already said, I do not really want to lynch him for that without suspecting him specifically (and not the slot), because it's an asshole thing to do.
I didn't even know we had a train on sicklucker. Is there an actual case I can read somewhere?
I read a few more posts of skynx, I think I'll be unvoting him, he has a few decent posts.
On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote: @BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did. Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure.
Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment.
Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it.
Apparently it did :D
On June 20 2017 22:46 Palmar wrote:
On June 20 2017 07:40 Chezitwo wrote:
On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote: Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent.
So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on.
Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming.
How am I supposed to believe that a guy like this:
On June 16 2017 07:40 Palmar wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:37 Koshi wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:36 Fecalfeast wrote: Shenannie onto marv?
😇I'm only half joking
nha. 0 posts is not his mafia style. He has some dignity and respect for the game.
He had, tbh.
He's the guy who just quit a game because he rolled mafia, as much as I like him (I love the guy, he's by far guy I've interacted most with outside of mafia that I've met here) he has been rather sketchy in his appearances lately. If anything his silence does point to him being mafia (or simply having forgotten about the game).
does not realize that marvs universal TL absence is obviously not connected to a mafia game he signed up for ages ago? Walk me through this. Do you actually believe marv would stop himself from posting on this forum because of this game? Not to mention that he stopped posting way before it started and he could know his alignment.
marv barely posts outside tl mafia at all, like his entire tl existence is basically tl mafia.
On June 20 2017 23:45 disformation wrote: yeah i think i'll make a decent case on sl later. basically: creates the annul wagon via "read his filter didnt like it" pushes really hard (uncharacteristic for sl) has a false/bad xata town lean/read says xata might be town after all after flip
aaaand:
On June 16 2017 07:54 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:51 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:49 sicklucker wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:47 Holyflare wrote:
On June 16 2017 07:45 Eversince wrote: This is going to make me look like garbage.
I haven't read anything since pg 35ish. Give me the the rough of what's happen between now and then for Xata, Annul, and SL.
I don't have time to fact check so my vote is entirely blind at this point.
sl came to the thread and town read xatalos because xatalos has different reads to most of the game (when in fact xatalos' reads are blending with the rest of the game
sl says i'm mafia for calling all the town leaders mafia and it's my mafia meta when 100% of other games he states my mafia meta is to push lurkers
sl is trying to force the wagon onto someone who is blatantly self-preserving and revealing his plan for all to see, who stubbornly refuses to change his reads despite everyone yelling at him mafia
sl is mafia
I said that because xata had a mafia read on ryan and everyone else town read him. get over it you lost save your buddy
xata doesn't have a mafia read on rayn, he said he can still be scum but doesn't actually say he scum reads him at all
Ruxxar and Fecalfeast are voting together once more. Both rather townread people. Why was everyone so super sure on Fecalfeast again? I think there were valid points but don't remember.
VayneAuthority ended up on Skynx D1 and is now up on the Grack wagon after popping in for a while. So D1 a non-committal vote and D3 joining the wagon in a strong fashion (I think joining a wagon as #5/#6 has more weight than #1/#2) which gives me worries. What are VA's reasons?
Like, people from the annul wagon aren't exactly cleared. We're focusing on Rels, Grack, ES, but left out Ruxxar for a lot of time (for which exact reasons?)
Hmm
Ruxxar, from what little I've read of him, kinda sounds like town, but it's not a strong read.
On June 22 2017 08:40 Palmar wrote: I forgot Vivax is bad. That's on me
Listing all Palmar's posts.
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
Setup analysis to get a POE list. Also see my post just above.
I always owned it. Also my PoE List, you say that like it's bad or something, but I actually think it's right on the money. we got this wrapped up.
Anyways I basically don't buy this comeback from Palmar so I'm voting him. He remains my top dude.
##vote Palmar
why ? He's pushing BTDT, who "played weird all game" apparently ? Palmar comes back and call one of your POE scum. What should he have done to be town in your book ?
Nothing, there's nothing he could have done today, actually. not with how he's played so far.
Then I don't understand that your POE post is not stating that exact fact. And I don't understand why you wouldn't vote him right as the day start.
Yeah what can I say, he started posting and I had some doubts. I shouldn't have had them, they're irrational, he definitely only started in response to the pressure and scum losing another player: they were dumb doubts. But we all make mistakes, just like you are now trying to last minute defend your scum teammate.
On June 28 2017 01:46 disformation wrote: well if palmar had made a really good case that was not only based on d1 stuff we already talked about and wasn't really sloppy or would at least have followed up with more stuff on his apparent #1 scum read, we could have talked.
Yeah I guess, maaaaaybe. I shouldn't have gotten nervous about him.
On June 28 2017 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't think BH will flip scum. He's just having fun. Also your points on him are wrong. I think it's pretty bs to say "BH does nothing" when he has jsut given a list of 4 people he thinks we find the last mafia in -> trying to lynch into that list. Then you quote one part of his reasoning and say it is flimsy when in reality it's more of a poe list (as you even point out yourself in the SAME post)....
my point IS that when he finally tries today, his reasonnings are POE. Not taking any risk, not directly pushing someone. I don't think he's even voting
BUT THE DUDE NEVER EVER PUSHES ANYONE (aka does anything)... Last game he had his vote on Grackaroni for like some hours on D1 when he thought Grackaroni lied and then went back to his RNG. Didn't have a clue why people voted for Fidei, voted off wagon (and not even his "real scumread" Grack) but obviously claimed credit in case he flipped scum. He literally just doesn't do anything unless there is some claim situation.
Don't worry I fixed the lack of Grack vote this time
On June 27 2017 07:33 Eversince wrote: You're super super mafia Disfo. 100%. I'm kidding, still forever townreading you.
Update also; mods just forgot me, i didn't receive a check result back for like 20 mins and assumed I was RB'd. I got msged 50 mins after Day start. He didn't follow anyone. So nothing useful to report.
I don't like Palmar immediately disappearing D4 after my claim. Pressure removed and he's gone again. His stuff on BTDT isn't great. He's not getting attention today and he's handily given rehashed of things that got discussed for over a week. What new point to the discussion did he actually generate?
Sorry Disfo that was a joke response, because you said "next person who asks is the lynch after Palmar" so I immediately asked again. I guess it didn't come across well.
well that kinda wraps this up neatly. So without a JK I feel a lot more comfortable about our claims. This is a reasonable number of blues and we're likely up against 4+1 or 5 with not any extra trickery.
On June 28 2017 01:41 Rels wrote: well. OK. ##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Rels lynching people he doesn't think are mafia.
noted.
yeah this is pretty fuckin weird even in the "Rels and Palm are both scum" world cause surely he can't imagine he's gonna get cred for such a bus... right? or is he actually angling for it
On June 28 2017 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am not going to lynch my townread when the other wagons are my top scumread and someone i have no idea of. So there is that.
I'm very interested in hearing about your #2 fefe scum read. Got a case?
I'd say the places where Palmar diverges from me (obviously other than our reads on each other) is the fefe scumread, and the rayn townread, and having ruxxar and Rels at the same read level (I think Ruxxar is town)
i have bad feelings but only about stuff Palmar has said/done since daybreak. I imagine he finally realized he was in danger of losing after his 2nd partner died and once there was pressure on he tried to play. And Palmar plays well. But this is the right move, he is the most likely to be scum.
i'm not trying to be overly defensive, I know that looks bad, but I did in fact know that we had an hour left. It has been at the same time this entire game and it hasn't changed.
On June 28 2017 07:27 Fecalfeast wrote: So bdtd disappeared after it was clear palmar was the lynch orr what
this seems accurate to me
1. shennanies on Rels 2. "uh oh btdt is away" but btdt is never around at deadline
is that an attempt to avert a Palmar lynch? because it feels like an attetmpt to avert a Palmar lynch.
Yes, it is literally true that shenannies on Rels would prevent an Palmar lynch today. Is this supposed to be some kind of har-dhitting question? "oh, what a 'gotcha'! the guy who talked briefly about not lynching Palmar was considering not lynching Palmar!"
On June 28 2017 07:45 Palmar wrote: actually I retract that, I'd rather not make a guess then I'll claim to have made whatever guess is right in my head and I can call all of yall bad.
We can lynch Palmar tomorrow if we have to. There's nothing wrong with that. But he's been playing different now, and at the VERY least I think, Rels is scummy enough we can take him down and have a good chance of flipping him scum. And I want to hear more of what Palmar has to say. I'm not saying "dont' lynch Palmar" but I AM saying "don't lynch Palmar TODAY"
On June 28 2017 07:47 Blazinghand wrote: ##unvote ##vote Rels
I'm not moving this vote any more.
What the fuck?
Come on, you have to admit that something seems off about this. And Palmar has been engaging the thread more. And this lynch has had no resistance, not REALLY. REls is A FINE LYNCH, eveyrone AGREES ON IT
I need ONE VOTE. FECALFEAST, you HAVET o know PALMAR has been acting better today. Give him just a LITTLE more time. One more day. Let's kill him tomorrow
we can lynch him tomorrow! Rels is a useless sack of crap, rhetorically speaking, but Palmar has been playing more. He might still be scum, but one more day. we should give him onre more
On June 28 2017 07:51 Skynx wrote: Palmar and BH are same alignment no doubt
whoa whoa whoa whoa
I'm not saying PAlmar is automatically town. I'm just saying, he's actually playing now. Come on Skynx, you're not actually townreading REls here are you? COME ON SKYNX
On June 28 2017 07:51 Blazinghand wrote: we can lynch him tomorrow! Rels is a useless sack of crap, rhetorically speaking, but Palmar has been playing more. He might still be scum, but one more day. we should give him onre more
this is 100% untrue. You cannot think that. You said yourself a few hours ago that Palmar was 100% useless and 100% scum in your mind.
I said he was 100% useless before the start of today. WHICH HE WAs, INDISPUTABLY
On June 28 2017 08:10 Skynx wrote: Like literally, does me coming into thread and calling you scum change have to do anything with alignment of Palmar/Rels???
I like Rels pivoting to me now, classic. Of course now he wants to go on me but not BTDT, because that makes sense??? unless of course, REls is scum. In which case it makes perfect sense. Because he's scum.
On June 29 2017 01:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: Blazinghand why did you do what you did at the deadline?
Something just seemed "off" about the Palmar lynch, and I wanted to give him an extra day. I didn't actually have a good reason to townread him. Also I really really want to flip Rels because he's likely to be scum, and (to a small extent) reasons of pride having to do with my reads and such earlier. But really, just something seemed wrong about the Palm lynch, and he was actually playing. I thought maybe he was trying to trick me by playing well and giving me doubts, but... I just had doubts. I can't explain it really well. Maybe it seemed too "easy"?
On June 29 2017 02:21 raynpelikoneet wrote: If you thought Palmar was playing well why did you vote for him in the first place? What does the "too easy" mean? That was literally the closest lynch possible.
I ALSO thought he didn't start playing until the start of day. Didn't you read anything I've written in the last 3 days? lol
"That was literally the closest lynch possible" WHY DO YOU THINK THIS WAS THE CASE??? It was only close because I made it close, Rayn. It was 7-3 or 7-4 before I started my shenannies.
On June 29 2017 02:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Blazinghand, what you're saying right now is that: - You had doubts on Palmar because his last day phase was good - You thought Rels is mafia
Yet you sat on Palmar almost all day just to fuck up with everything in the last couple of minutes. How does that make any sense?
He actually even did it twice LOL.
If you recall he fucked up and did it actually 1 hour before deadline. Then he did it at deadline too.
On June 29 2017 02:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Blazinghand, what you're saying right now is that: - You had doubts on Palmar because his last day phase was good - You thought Rels is mafia
Yet you sat on Palmar almost all day just to fuck up with everything in the last couple of minutes. How does that make any sense?
1) it took time for those doubts to develop. Bear in mind, 5 hours into Day 1, I've seen Palmar trying for 5 hours. That's very different than 48 hours into Day 1, seeing him try for 48 hours, and like, set up all these plans and shit for when he was dead. And even then I didn't think "Palmar was town" I thought "well, let's here a bit more from him" and basically it was just a gut feeling that wouldn't go away. IT was intuition. I know other people felt it too. Fecalfeast did. Other people did. Nobody acted on it, because people don't trust their guts. But I FELT IT. IN MY GUT. So at the end, I tried to make a play. I'm the shenannigan King. I can do this. This is something that I know how to do, that I've done well. 2) I never didn't say Rels was mafia 3) Screw off
On June 29 2017 02:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Blazinghand, what you're saying right now is that: - You had doubts on Palmar because his last day phase was good - You thought Rels is mafia
Yet you sat on Palmar almost all day just to fuck up with everything in the last couple of minutes. How does that make any sense?
He actually even did it twice LOL.
If you recall he fucked up and did it actually 1 hour before deadline. Then he did it at deadline too.
CAN WE JUST FORGET THAT PART
If there's one word I wanna put on your EOD BH, it's forced.
BUT IT ALMOST WORKED. If it worked, I don't care if it's forced or not forced or whatever. Who gives a shit how "forced" it sounds, It could have saved him. I'll own that. I'll own that any day.
On June 29 2017 02:36 ruXxar wrote: Which means he basically had the shenannies planned beforehand.
Thats fucking scummy if you ask me.
Yeah I had the shennannies planned. I wanted to do them an hour before. But I realized the timing was off, so I waited until I Was closer. And IW as still doubting myself. But I did the best I could.
Don't tell me, Ruxxar, that you've never had a gut feeling. and you've never acted on it. and youv'e never tried to, in the most effective way possible, make it happen.
On June 29 2017 02:38 Blazinghand wrote: BUT IT ALMOST WORKED. If it worked, I don't care if it's forced or not forced or whatever. Who gives a shit how "forced" it sounds, It could have saved him. I'll own that. I'll own that any day.
It they were both town then how does that redeem you in any sense?
??? Rels likely to be scum. And if they're somehow both town then maybe I dun goofed, but my motivation was good.
I mean shit I don't care about getting redeemed relative to actually lynching scum so I think basically all your stuff here is way off base Ruxxar. Here's what I did:
I tried to lynch scum.
That's all there was to it. I put my vote on Rels, at the end, and used all of my considerable skill to try to kill him instead of Palm. I used every dirty trick and tactic I knew. Because it was the right thing to do. Because my gut told me.
And you know what, I failed. And if I had succeeded, you'd all be kissing my feet right now, begging to hear the next revelation, of Blazinghand, Scum Hunter and MAster of Shenannies.
But I didn't do it. I fucked up. And that's on me.
On June 29 2017 02:38 Blazinghand wrote: BUT IT ALMOST WORKED. If it worked, I don't care if it's forced or not forced or whatever. Who gives a shit how "forced" it sounds, It could have saved him. I'll own that. I'll own that any day.
It they were both town then how does that redeem you in any sense?
??? Rels likely to be scum. And if they're somehow both town then maybe I dun goofed, but my motivation was good.
What happened to the "fake rels dumbtell" 100% scum that you had going. Why did you even consider voting for palmar over rels.
On June 29 2017 02:44 ruXxar wrote: Your story is not congruent with your actions. It looks scummy.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?? I fucking went on Palmar as my TOP SCUMREAD like, AGES ago with my PoE post. Then he started playing better and I had doubts. HAVE YOU ACTUALLY READ MY POSTS???
FUCK JESUS CHRIST THIS GAME IS FULL OF IDIOTS AND WAFFLERS
On June 29 2017 02:42 Blazinghand wrote: I mean shit I don't care about getting redeemed relative to actually lynching scum so I think basically all your stuff here is way off base Ruxxar. Here's what I did:
I tried to lynch scum.
That's all there was to it. I put my vote on Rels, at the end, and used all of my considerable skill to try to kill him instead of Palm. I used every dirty trick and tactic I knew. Because it was the right thing to do. Because my gut told me.
And you know what, I failed. And if I had succeeded, you'd all be kissing my feet right now, begging to hear the next revelation, of Blazinghand, Scum Hunter and MAster of Shenannies.
But I didn't do it. I fucked up. And that's on me.
Bro, you don't need to tell me. I WAS THE FIRST GUY ON RELS SO PISS OFF.
1) I get asked what my motivation is 2) I explain it 3) I get told to piss off
On June 29 2017 02:44 ruXxar wrote: Your story is not congruent with your actions. It looks scummy.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?? I fucking went on Palmar as my TOP SCUMREAD like, AGES ago with my PoE post. Then he started playing better and I had doubts. HAVE YOU ACTUALLY READ MY POSTS???
FUCK JESUS CHRIST THIS GAME IS FULL OF IDIOTS AND WAFFLERS
THE ONLY THING I REMEMBER ABOUT YOU IS GOING "HURR DURR RELS IS SCUM 100% DUMBTELL".
AND NOW SUDDENLY YOU ARE LIKE OH NOO PALMAR IS SCUM LETS VOTE PALMAR.
wait, do you... actually not know about my posting about PoE? Let me find it for you, I thought you'd seen it and were just ignoring it, my bad.
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
It's probably like, the only good post I've made all game, and the basis for almost all of my recent play, I kinda assumed anyone who had legitimate informed thoughts about me would have read it, but I guess not???
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
oh, huh, so it doesn't. But Palm was deffo like, not playing so
QED
On June 29 2017 02:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: BH when exactly did you start having doubts about Palmar's alignment? Can you point out to a specific time, post or something?
nope, other than like, i guess a couple hours before the end of day. But then again, I think I only voted him for a couple hours? So???
On June 29 2017 02:36 ruXxar wrote: Which means he basically had the shenannies planned beforehand.
Thats fucking scummy if you ask me.
That's not scummy in itself tbh.
people seem to underestimate my level of ruthlessness and willing to win as any alignment, whether town or scum. Even though I have a reputation for it
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
oh, huh, so it doesn't. But Palm was deffo like, not playing so
QED
On June 29 2017 02:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: BH when exactly did you start having doubts about Palmar's alignment? Can you point out to a specific time, post or something?
nope, other than like, i guess a couple hours before the end of day. But then again, I think I only voted him for a couple hours? So???
Is that all you got? Really?
I mean, yes. That was literally the reason I was suspicious of him. Why, did you ahve some OTHER reason you saw at the start of yesterday? LIke, it's not like the dude had made a lot of posts or something that you could read to figure out he was suspicious. He was literally not playing and one of the 4 people who I thought could be scum (and I still think we basically autowin, lynching into that group btw). What was ANYONE'S reason to scumread Palmar? it was literally that he wasn't playing.
Like, that's a LOT though, given we were far into the game. And basically ANYONE who voted him, their reasoning was "he's not playing". They might dress it up real fancy-like, but it's not like Palmar did something scummy or made some big play, he literally hadn't been playing. Nobody had any other reason to actually vote him. It's a fine reason, btw; it's just a simple one. Don't h8 cause i'm honest
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
Like, Palmar literally wasn't playing the game. Jesus christ why am I being force to defend the case on someone that I treid to safe? What's wrong with this world
On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote: living players:
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES
Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7):sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
I
Never
Thought
Rels
Was
Town
So
Why
Vote
For
Palmar?
More
Than
One
Can
Be
Scum
And
He
Wasn't
Playing
Show me your post stating that you think palmar is more scummy than rels and why.
??? man screw off, I tried to SAVE Palmar. I listed him as scummer than Rels cause he wasn't playing at all, then I changed my mind due to doubts and gut feeling. Then I did my best to save him, and almost did. Don't give me shit for that
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat
Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
I
Never
Thought
Rels
Was
Town
So
Why
Vote
For
Palmar?
More
Than
One
Can
Be
Scum
And
He
Wasn't
Playing
Show me your post stating that you think palmar is more scummy than rels and why.
??? man screw off, I tried to SAVE Palmar. I listed him as scummer than Rels cause he wasn't playing at all, then I changed my mind due to doubts and gut feeling. Then I did my best to save him, and almost did. Don't give me shit for that
IF YOU WANTED TO SAVE PALMAR YOU COULDVE DONE THAT WAY EARLIER THAN LAST 10 MINUTES.
So, your only criticism is that I was ineffective? Fine. But Hey. I am the shenanigan king. I've BEEN the shenanigan king for YEARS:
On January 13 2014 05:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: This discussion is stupid. Can we discuss who to lynch instead of if the only mayor candidate is trustful or not?
or we could make someone else mayor. it's not like it's too late to swap. The shenanigans king is reasdy
On June 29 2017 03:10 ruXxar wrote: BUT OH WAIT, YOU ACTUALLY WANTED TO SAVE PALMAR AN HOUR BEFOR DEADLINE DUE TO YOUR FUCK UP. AND SOMEHOW YOU EXCUSED YOURSELF THAT YOU WERE DUMB.
DOESNT SEEM LIKE YOU ACTUALLY WANTED TO SAVE HIM.
Dude. Think about how close I came to geting FF onto the Rels wagon. Think about how BTDT was temporarily on Rels and he was the lynch. It almost happened. I tried so hard, and it almost happened.
I'll admit it. I fucked up. I failed to save Palmar. and that's on me. But don't make the fact that some peopel were too cowardly to follow my lead, and that I wasn't able to inspire them enough, into "blazinghand was malicious". I didn't succeed, but taht doesn't mean I didn't try.
And where were you when I needed you, Ruxxar? You were on Rels. Why didn't you try to save Palmar like I did?
On June 29 2017 02:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: [quote] Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar.
If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
I
Never
Thought
Rels
Was
Town
So
Why
Vote
For
Palmar?
More
Than
One
Can
Be
Scum
And
He
Wasn't
Playing
Show me your post stating that you think palmar is more scummy than rels and why.
??? man screw off, I tried to SAVE Palmar. I listed him as scummer than Rels cause he wasn't playing at all, then I changed my mind due to doubts and gut feeling. Then I did my best to save him, and almost did. Don't give me shit for that
IF YOU WANTED TO SAVE PALMAR YOU COULDVE DONE THAT WAY EARLIER THAN LAST 10 MINUTES.
So, your only criticism is that I was ineffective? Fine. But Hey. I am the shenanigan king. I've BEEN the shenanigan king for YEARS:
On January 13 2014 05:48 Blazinghand wrote:
On January 13 2014 05:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: This discussion is stupid. Can we discuss who to lynch instead of if the only mayor candidate is trustful or not?
or we could make someone else mayor. it's not like it's too late to swap. The shenanigans king is reasdy
My criticism is that even when you were going to try to save palmar and fucked up 1 hour before deadline, you didn't actually continue trying to save him, but called your move a "dumb mistake" paraphrasing, instead of actually powering through and trying to save palmar.
Then you just waited until right before eod to pick up your little act.
well yes, I planned to save him the whole time. And I planned to do so via shenannies, somethign that I'm really good at. And then it didn't work.
BUT I TRIED.
You might not like my methods, you might not like how ruthless and effective I tried to be, you might not like that I was willing to throw everything scared out the window to save the man, but I TRIED and you did NOT.
On June 30 2017 00:45 beentheredonethat wrote: Also, disformation's setup speculation leaves out the fact that there have been double KP for scum involved. So it actually makes a lot of sense that scum has quite a lot of investigatives.
On June 30 2017 00:02 beentheredonethat wrote: So first of all, I am blue. I am Watcher. I visit a person at night and I see if that person was visited and if so, by who.
I have Xata, no visit N1 (wanted to confirm the vig if one was in, no result), I have ruxxar N2 (didnt believe his "bait" on xata, no result), N3 disfo (no visit), VA N4 (no visit)
There is 100% strongarm in. It was used on sicklucker after the roleblocker found out his role. Chezitwo was the target of the regular KP.
VA fake claimed. Of course no counter claim because no vig in. Disformation slipped a TMI.
VA/Disfo
and I am probably wrong on Skynx because I've been wrong on everything thus far.
On June 30 2017 03:54 Skynx wrote: Btw have to say I'm not gona consider anyone else before btdt and Rels is dead
Yeah given yesterday's EoD I consider this to be 100% the way things should go down. Also this is in line with my original plan from yesterday so I am a happy camper
On June 30 2017 03:54 Skynx wrote: Btw have to say I'm not gona consider anyone else before btdt and Rels is dead
Yeah given yesterday's EoD I consider this to be 100% the way things should go down. Also this is in line with my original plan from yesterday so I am a happy camper
lol. BH makes no sense here. What about yesterday's EOD ? He created the situation himself, and now he's using it to further push me. It would be the same if it was Palmar that lived - he would be using that exact argument. It's a loop without a start.
I'm not talking bout the flip bro
but you're not actually analyzing the game as you are scum so whatevs
On June 30 2017 04:36 beentheredonethat wrote: Also, disformation either is the scum killing this town or he is the town killing this town so there's pretty much no way he'll dodge the scum MVP regardless of his alignment :D
Yeah it was super unpleasant the entirety of this day phase with this "strat" from BTDT. just didn't feel like dealing with that and it sure as heck wasn't convincing
On July 02 2017 07:40 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oh were you at a wedding too? Can you do the same i asked BH?
Yes, I can, but I won't. Irl stuff is NAI and can be faked by scum. Hell, I've literally faked IRL things a couple times. If I posted myself in a suit that should have zero convincing value
Btw I faked the "confused about 1 hour early" thing. I thought it would earn me towncredit and confuse people and buy me at least another cycle or two.
The wedding was real, but the details were a lie. I was only busy for about 6 hours after daybreak. I just wanted to have an excuse to lie low. And it worked!
One of my favorite things about playing scum is just lying about everything.
Our strategy relied on them not guessing that we could move up LYLO by a day. There was literally no way they were going to guess it, because why would they, but then you started pushing the idea of the strongman vigi. This was an incredibly bad idea independently of me telling you it was a bad idea and was probably the only way we could have lost at that point. I'm just telling you so you improve next time.
Also, I told you to stop doing it, then you posted in the QT: you clearly saw what I said. I posted it very nice ways trying to get you to stop, you replied after my post, clearly you saw it, but continued to do so.
But independently of that, it was still a mistake. Don't make excuses. Do better next time.
Sorry for being a grouch about this btw I was legit freaking out because we had the game in the bag at that time and you were REALLY playing with fire.
On July 05 2017 05:35 Fecalfeast wrote: So wait why did the game not end after the lynch last day phase then? Just to confirm that mafia wanted to win or what
It's possible that we could aim our strongarm shot at the wrong target or something i guess, they waited until we had submitted the actions.
On July 06 2017 11:33 Blazinghand wrote: It's cause nobody wanted to actually play after a certain point in the game, they were sold on BTDT and then autolynched into Rels without thinking
But that was a point when Palmar was alive and made a case on btdt who you thought was mafia. Why would you vote for Palmar instead of Rels there? (this was quite early in the day people lynched Palmar)
I'm just too cool to touch, too funny and charismatic
On July 06 2017 11:33 Blazinghand wrote: It's cause nobody wanted to actually play after a certain point in the game, they were sold on BTDT and then autolynched into Rels without thinking
You can say what you want about me not listening to the QT but I did shit up the thread a lot and that did help.
On July 06 2017 11:33 Blazinghand wrote: It's cause nobody wanted to actually play after a certain point in the game, they were sold on BTDT and then autolynched into Rels without thinking
But that was a point when Palmar was alive and made a case on btdt who you thought was mafia. Why would you vote for Palmar instead of Rels there? (this was quite early in the day people lynched Palmar)
I'm just too cool to touch, too funny and charismatic
mh. i feel like i should have gotten you after the btdt lynch, if I had reread your filter properly. unfortunately i did btdt/fefe/rels first and ran out of time. not sure if that would have even helped with thread being that set on rels. *shrugs*
but well played. my metric of "funny ppl are much less likely of being scum" now has a "*does not apply to blazinghand" added to it. =p
On July 06 2017 11:33 Blazinghand wrote: It's cause nobody wanted to actually play after a certain point in the game, they were sold on BTDT and then autolynched into Rels without thinking
You can say what you want about me not listening to the QT but I did shit up the thread a lot and that did help.
fair
yes. was like impossible to get anything beside getting btdt lynched done that day. at least for me.
Pretty much any behavioral or IRL or tone towntell doesn't work for me. I am willing and able to fake just about anything as scum. This makes my town games very hard
Scumteam always seems obvious in hindsight. That's easy. Catching and lynching scum before the End Game post is the hard part. Whenever I win as scum everyone is like "yeah in retrospect BH was obvscum"—and perhaps I was, but only in retrospect.
:o :o :o <3 also is it daytiem yet 
He literally just doesn't do anything unless there is some claim situation.
EPT
