EPTThough I guess setup talk is preety weak regardless
[N] TL Mafia LXXV - Page 270
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Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
Though I guess setup talk is preety weak regardless | ||
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Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
a) where was that jk b) if both es and va are town we would be at 5 pr. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
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ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
but i feel like scum should have something like strongman in that case. which they apparently dont have. like rb/rc and adsuming a gf against 5 blues? not sure. feels a tad weak. but whatever i guess. gotta run, will be late at work. | ||
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ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
Va is as good as confirmed town at this point. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On June 26 2017 15:52 ruXxar wrote: Makes it clear that mafia did shoot together with vigi. Va is as good as confirmed town at this point. ? scum shot chezi two nights in a row? vet and stuff? | ||
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ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
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ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
On June 26 2017 16:02 disformation wrote: ? scum shot chezi two nights in a row? vet and stuff? Yep. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
"so mafia didn't shoot together with vigi, they shot a different target" so to speak. It was possible to misunderstand your original post as saying that mafia shot the same target as vigi | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On June 26 2017 16:03 ruXxar wrote: Can someone tell me what darth foleys role does? "Wondered" Probably "Wanderer" which is the Tracker version of a Miller. The Wanderer randomly visits people, so if you Track them it looks like they're doing something, or if you Watch someone they visit, they appear as a visitor. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
Chezi getting shot ties in with ES being town. ES tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2. SL got DIFFERENt and we flipped TW, who was scum. So Chezi was town. So scum shot him. The explanation for the single shot during N3 on SL, is that VA, the vigi, shot SL during N3, and Mafia either shot Chezi during N3, or the JK (who, it is claimed, saved ES) saved whoever they shot. Since to kill Chezi requires two kp because he is a vet, and we already killed the Mafia RB and they likely don't have another, the reason they were able to kill him must be because they shot him N3 already, which explains the missing KP and why he died. So this mean, assuming VA and ES are telling the truth, town has: SL the Parity Cop (confirmed) VA the Vigilante ES the Tracker Chezitwo the Veteran (confirmed) An unknown Jailkeeper This is all obvious stuff, but i'm putting it in one post mostly for myself here. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
think i have an idea how a jk could fit. enough setup talk. @fefe: your top scumreads still ruxxar/bh? @BH: On June 25 2017 08:12 Blazinghand wrote: I think we probably can't rely on additional blues solving this game for us. But we have a lot of info now and should be able to basically PoE things down to very favorable odds what is your poe looking like atm? | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
between rels and rayn, who do you think is scum now? | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
check something in rels filter, you know what i am talking about ill be in and out depending on work etc. voting plammar for now. will take a look at some filter when i am back. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
Palmar Rels Disfo VA BTDT Rayn Blaze FF Skynx RuXxar ES Living claimers (do not lynch): VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3 ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4 Likely town: Disfo RuXXar Fecal ... much lower, Skynx Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them): Palmar BTDT Rels Rayn -- So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat: Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF. Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green. The people who were on the Annul wagon: annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote): Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons. I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view. So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum. I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1. With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation. 2-mafia situation: Today, 9-2. If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2 If we ML again, next day is 5-2 If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO 3-mafia situation: today, 8-3 If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3 If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here. | ||
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beentheredonethat
2934 Posts
VA (Vig claim) ES (Tracker claim) There was more confirmed town by the ES claimed but I forgot, please help me out. I think one of Rels/Ruxxar is scum. It just makes sense that one scummer is in who's active in the thread while the rest hides/hid in the afk pile. The afk pile has drastically been reduced, which is great, and Tumble's flip kinda confirms to me that the scum team is super low volume. I think Ruxxar looks actually worse than Rels but this is completely based on gut. We should always lynch Skynx or 3-page-Palmar here, no questions asked. I think we have 2 or 3 mislynches left now that Tumble flipped. Mafia has 1KP, we even have a jailkeeper in. We're in a super position  . | ||
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beentheredonethat
2934 Posts
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beentheredonethat
2934 Posts
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