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[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 08 2016 21:52 GMT
#236
On December 09 2016 06:47 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Chairman Ray for president


*fistbump*
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 08 2016 22:29 GMT
#241
On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote:
TW was not slammed when 2 people voted him, Either one of the voters (CR and cake) were scum OR TW is scum. Technically its possible that everyone involved is wrong, but fuck that noise, I'm calling TW scum, Good fucking game.

Cop, dont claim until you absolutely have to at end of Nightphase.

If TW claims cop, lynch that piece of garbage. I will not accept him claiming cop this game.

##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood

I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today.


On December 09 2016 07:19 Tumblewood wrote:
tonight I will have a lot of time, which I will use to post extensive/organized reads (actually I have about 45 minutes to answer questions now).
given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams:
ExO + NU
ExO + 1der
1der + NU
all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der.


What about the scenario where a scum just wasn't online at the time?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 08 2016 22:51 GMT
#243
Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 09 2016 01:33 GMT
#246
TW, one thing you keep doing when people push on you is to say that what you did was not indicative of alignment. The whole point of pushing on you is to get your side of the story before making a judgement. Everything that was said in this game is not completely alignment indicative, including all your scumreads. But instead of actually explaining your actions from your perspective, you just say that town could have totally said the same thing. That's the exact sort of defense that mafia gives if they didn't have any honest town intentions, but tries to argue that they could exist.

Here's a couple examples:
On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote:
gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta
+ Show Spoiler +
inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town

I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation

On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote:

The case against
[list] [*]From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] +
On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote:
Show nested quote +
I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring
What a convenient thing to say now.
for something that is not at all indicative of alignment. No 1der + Show Spoiler [ayy] +
ayyyyyy
he accuses me of being scum if all of my actions are twisted to the most scum-leaning possibility.
[*]Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.Rels that one time.


You also did the same thing when I pushed onto NU, defending him by saying that his actions could have been either town or mafia.

What was your rationale for these defenses, or would you like to argue that town could have totally defended themselves like this too?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 09 2016 10:04 GMT
#252
On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote:
#164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164

#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk

#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.

#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives

#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain

#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.

#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.

#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU

#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do

#213 fuck off

#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him

#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.

#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.

#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?

#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.


Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.

CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.


ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia.

Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two?

I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad.

I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 09 2016 10:06 GMT
#253
ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU:

On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote:
My original case about NU still stands.

At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense.

Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him?

Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 09 2016 10:25 GMT
#258
On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote:
Hey craycray, anything for me?

What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior
- "i'd spite vote but won't"
- unfair "pick one answer now" questions
- voting after we've left off

I'm okay with you pushing NU.

I'd really like to see more people interact with H1 because H1 v TW doesn't give me a good baseline to evaluate H1 interactions with me.


When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this:

On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote:
Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded?

Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 09 2016 10:52 GMT
#263
On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote:
#164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164

#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk

#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.

#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives

#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain

#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.

#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.

#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU

#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do

#213 fuck off

#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him

#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.

#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.

#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?

#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.


Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.

CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.


ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia.

Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two?

I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad.

I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased.


I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now.

I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure.

No I think it's much more likely you are scum.


I feel that it's very difficult to get through to you because you are interpreting everything I say in the worst possible way when I didn't mean it that way.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 09 2016 11:20 GMT
#270
On December 09 2016 19:42 cakepie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote:
What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior
- "i'd spite vote but won't"
- unfair "pick one answer now" questions
- voting after we've left off


When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this:

On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote:
Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded?


okay, but you haven't answered my questions.


Here's my take on it

The spite vote in itself wasn't the suspicious part for me. The spite vote combined with the timing of it was really fishy. Hopeless clearly stated that he wants to lynch TW:
On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood

I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today.


However, hopeless only voted after you and I rescinded our votes. He was on during the entire time, so he could have pushed it to 3 votes and maybe gotten the lynch. However he chose to vote after we rescinded when his vote was completely useless.

On December 09 2016 04:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
EBWOP: Shitty nested quotes

also

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:
On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote:
well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good.

TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum".


Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood.







Tumblewood answered a different one instead, and hopeless kept pushing. I think there was a little miscommunication here. I was about to interject and clarify it, but wanted to see how it would play out instead. In the end, hopeless did not ever correct Tumblewood on answering the wrong question, and decided to vote him anyways. To me that seems like Hopeless wasn't that interested in TW's answer anyways.

With these three things combined, there's a bunch of ways you could interpret it, but the motive I'm concerned about is that Hopeless just wanted to distance himself from TW. It would give rise to the scenario where hopeless is scum with TW. That would also explain why TW seemed quite unconcerned with 3 people voting him at EOD. If I were town in that position, I would be begging people to get their votes off so that mafia couldn't hammer it. TW was unphased by it until after the day ended, and then proceeded to post a few big long posts, which would have made more sense to post before EOD. It's late and I'm not sure if I'm getting my read across, but to summarize, I think this is a possible scenario:

Hopeless and TW are mafia together
Hopeless thinks "oh crap, TW is under a lot of fire, everyone's on him but me. I better draw some distance too"
Hopeless draws distance by doing the whole binary question thing and also threatening to vote him, but doesn't follow up on TW answer the question
Chairman Ray and cakepie vote TW
TW thinks "Well, I know for a fact that Hopeless won't kill me, and NU won't vote me either, so I'm safe"
Chairman Ray and cakepie unvote TW
Hopeless votes TW and says "I'm 51/49 on killing you!"

That just one way I could interpret this really awkward exchange between TW and hopeless. I don't really see a scenario where hopeless is mafia and TW is town, that seems really weird to me. If hopeless is town and had good town intentions, I would like him to speak for himself, which is why I asked him earlier.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 09 2016 11:38 GMT
#272
On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 19:06 Chairman Ray wrote:
ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU:

On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote:
My original case about NU still stands.

At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense.

Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him?



For starters:

Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe.


Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them.

However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum.

So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU?


Yeah, after both you and TW gave me shit for the way I present my reads, I know that I fucked that up.

If I see someone do something that has a clear mafia motive, but can also be interpreted from a town side, I just push them for being mafia, and accuse them for one of the many scenarios that could have occurred. If they tell me a valid town perspective, then we're great, but if they can't give me a perspective that makes sense coming from town, then lynch lynch lynch.

I realized after both you and TW gave me shit for it that the push just falls flat due to some glaringly obvious logic flaws. TW reacting similarly to you was the only slight townread I have on him, and that was why I rescinded my vote on him before EOD.

To your other question, if TW is town, NU is scum, my original suspicion was hopeless. This post gave me a slight yellow flag that I was keeping an eye on:

On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:
On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.

I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.

Ray looks sketchy to me.

TW looks Town.


Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't.

The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it.

But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now.

So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming

So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence.


This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind"

Summed up

"Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post.


I don't think you represented my case fairly.

I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it?

They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it.

Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW.

So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie?


He asked me about ExO and cakepie, but leaving hopeless out, which is a weak associative tell. If there continued to be this awkward silence between the two of them, that would have definitely been a red flag for me. However, after EOD with the hopeless-TW interaction, it's just too weird to believe that hopeless can be scum without TW. Also at the time, I had no case against hopeless besides his inactivity. NU hasn't been playing the last half of the game, so there's not much more to read into. Right now, I just want him to answer the case that I have already presented. My strongest read right now is still TW and NU.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 10 2016 00:54 GMT
#323
Ok, I'm the cop. Cakepie and Tumblewood are fake.

I checked Koshi N0, which was why I didn't come out.

I checked TW N1, and he's mafia.

##Vote: Tumblewood

Catching up on the thread now.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 10 2016 01:04 GMT
#335
Still catching up on the thread, but here's a couple things I want answered:

@cakepie: Why did you fakeclaim?

@NeverUnlucky: At the time, 2 cops have claimed. Why were you under the suspicion that one of them might be VT, and why did you vote on TW, despite claiming the possibility that he's VT?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 10 2016 01:05 GMT
#336
On December 10 2016 10:04 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Ray's claim is way too convenient, and I think TW is the real cop due to my reasoning in 331.

##Vote Chairman Ray

If you hammer, please have the decency of telling your alignment while we wait for the end game post.


How did you know game was going to end?

SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 10 2016 01:12 GMT
#345
On December 10 2016 09:59 cakepie wrote:
I claimed at EoN.
TW, why you no claim at EoN?
Ray, why you no claim at EoN?


Because I checked Koshi

Reading through your gigantic case now.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 10 2016 01:51 GMT
#356
On December 09 2016 23:05 cakepie wrote:
Ray I need you to untunnel NU for a moment.

Your reasons for scumming him are:
1. N0 planning, feigning activity? (same as TW)
2. D1 distancing from TW (NU+TW scum)
3. wanting you to push him
4. caring about how he is perceived

I'm not saying that these aren't valid reasons.
But I'm going to need you to try some good faith for a moment and consider these viewpoints:

1a. I have (weak? meta) reasons to see planning/mechanics as within the range of town?NU; #43 is a naive desire to have simple cop v mafia fakecop fights with no VTs fakeclaiming blue.

1b. #46 is a sound response to #45. With no VTs fakeclaiming blue, force scum to kill the doc N1 for a free flip without needing cop to check doc. Better plan than TW's careless crap; he's thinking as compared to TW's blindly enumerate.

2. The distancing argument relies on #87 + Show Spoiler +
On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 08:59 Tumblewood wrote:
current evaluation of ray is neutral and bad, as opposed to everyone else (besides NU I guess) who are neutral and not playing

Same feeling for ray, but everyone else (besides you who I've a fetus of a town-lean on) is like ray for me cause 'not playing' IS bad.

Pay attention to context. "fetus of a town-lean" for activity, since no one else is present/active -- only NU, TW, CR are around, and town?NU is in OMGUS CR mode thanks to CR's "lynch NU+TW" post.

3. The problem here, Ray, is that you buggered off for good chunks of time without pushing your scumreads. He could be saying "scum!CR isn't pushing me enough for how strong his read seems to be, that's scummy!"

4. Subjective.

So take a moment and untunnel yourself, this is essential for what I'm about to draft+post up next.


I have to agree here. This is a perspective that i didnt consider.

Initially when i made my "lynch tw+nu" post, I had some red flags, but didnt feel at the time they were mafia, but their reaction to my push made no sense coming from town. What I failed to consider was that they were not reacting to what I said, but rather how i pushed it. I can see the possibility of tw and nu reacting the way they did from a town perspective. Im gonna reevaluate on those two.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 10 2016 09:44 GMT
#382
cakepie, I read over your case. There's a lot I like, and some I don't like.

Firstly, I think you might also have a little of the same tunnel syndrome that I sort of had against NU that you called me out for. Some of the reads that you posted aren't alignment indicative and read more like "I don't like how this person is playing". Maybe it makes more sense in your head and you didn't bother to explain everything fully given the sheer length of your post. I would like to draw attention to one thing:

On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote:
...
My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing.
...


You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them?

There's a few more thoughts I had, but I'll share them afterwards.

A couple things I would add to the ExO case from my own personal reads.

During the entire game, nearly every single post ExO made on me was really unfair and misconstrued me into a mafia mold, and was somewhat OMGUS. At the time I read this as town who honestly didn't know who was mafia. This would make sense if ExO came into this game, saw some red flags in me, and then held a strong bias that I must be mafia. Because a legit mafia would know that I'm town, and will only have a logical bias against me to try to get me lynched, but the OMGUS doesn't make any sense if I never gone on him for anything. So I thought he was just being a biased town; however, if I came into the game guns blazing against his mafia buddy, that would explain the OMGUS part.

Earlier I posted an associative read where TW could be mafia with hopeless, because TW did not feel threatened at all at EoD from 3 people voting him, and hopeless deliberately missing his vote would explain it. If ExO+TW was the mafia team, that would also be reasonable, because NU was leaning town on TW, so there was no risk of hammering.

I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 10 2016 10:18 GMT
#383
NeverUnlucky, I admit that some of the early game pushed I had on you were my own misjudgement. If you're town, it's vitally important that all three town vote together today. If any one of us is voting a different person, then it's either a no lynch or town gets lynched, and either way mafia wins. Please tell me your suspicions that I'm mafia, and I'll address it. But today, you absolutely need to vote TW. There's absolute no way he could be the real cop.

Firstly, why on earth would cop spend half their time scumreading someone who they had a greencheck on?

Near EoD1, TW said that he was so confident on cakepie and me being mafia, he didn't think he could possibly get lynched, and that's why he wasn't worried. But think about it. Look at cakepie's day 1 play and look at my day 1 play. Do you think it's at all reasonable to conclude that cakepie is mafia and I am mafia, with enough confidence that you would stake your life over it rather than claim your role? He was ready to stake his life over cakepie and me being the two mafia, yet, he didn't even push on us the entire day. That makes zero sense in every way.

During the nightphase, he crumbed someone who he ended up shooting. That's exactly what mafia do when planning to fakeclaim.

Now look at this recent post:
On December 10 2016 16:04 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2016 15:58 cakepie wrote:
On December 10 2016 15:30 Tumblewood wrote:why not bait it by posting 3 minutes early?

I did fake #280+281.


or why would you associate yourself with ray (it really is obvious) all game if you have no special relation to him?

If you mean me calling him craycray, no particular reason. I just thought it would be a funny nickname.
If it's me seeming to let him off the hook, that's because I was focusing on you, then ExO.
If you have something you want to ask me about our interactions content-wise, fire away.

posting at the standard escape-NK time defeats the purpose of baiting the NK by claiming.
and with ray, it's that you never seem to pressure him, you just always see the good side, which isn't how you have treated the rest of the game.


Look at where he criticizes cakepie for fake claiming at the very end of the night instead of a few minutes before. Yes, that's a valid criticism, but not from TW. Look at the way TW's been playing all game long. His play has absolutely no respect to granularity whatsoever, but he notices something so subtle. That doesn't make sense coming from TW. But what does make sense is that maybe people were pushing for scum to claim at EoN, so mafia were trying to snipe the cop. Cakepie fakeclaimed way too late and they missed their chance, which is how they noticed it.

Please consider this reads, because TW is mafia fakeclaiming cop, and I have to depend on every single town voting him. If you are town please keep an open mind, consider these reads. If you have any questions, let me know.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 11 2016 07:19 GMT
#494
Ok, I just got back home, catching up on the thread now. Sorry for being away for so long
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 11 2016 07:20 GMT
#495
cakepie you are a fucking HERO. If we end up winning this, it'll all be because of you. If we lose, it's 100% my fault for being stupid and signing up for a mafia game when I had a day trip today.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 11 2016 08:42 GMT
#502
NeverUnlucky, I'm really sorry for being away so long today, like I'm super sorry. Thank you for being around today despite me being gone, and thanks for not hammering.

I hope that you can forgive me for having shitty reads on you earlier. If you can consider cakepie's case and my case in a fair manner, I would super appreciate it. I know 100% for sure that you are town and cakepie is town, because if either of you is mafia, then you would have hammered and won the game already. But for us to win the game, we all need to vote together on mafia. So please give this a fair read. Even if you decide later on that you want to vote me, I totally understand and don't fault you for it. I played like shit this game and deserve to lose. At least give me this one chance to explain the game from my point of view.

Firstly, I will try to explain cakepie's generation gap in a way everyone can understand it. I know that maybe cakepie sounded a bit elitist of condenscending in a way, but I can assure you that he's not trying to act like he's better or smarter or anything like that. What it really means is that people who have played together a long time have developed a certain metagame. When a group of people play mafia for the very first time, they have no idea what to do or what to say. How do you know who's lying or who's letting to truth. From there we try different things and see what works and what doesn't. Each game that town loses, we look at what plays were valid and what wasn't, and we look at what reads were valid and what wasn't. Each game that mafia loses, they look at why town was able to read them and see how they can blend in better next time. It's a process of learning from out own mistakes and other people's mistakes over time. So after the same group of people play a large number of mafia games, they develop over time an encyclopedia of town's meta and an excyclopedia or mafia's meta. So every player that played together a while ago all learned together and plays this similar way. A newer player, no matter how good, or an experienced player that played in a different group might not have the same meta. I believe this is what cakepie meant by generation gap. People who played together a lot a long time ago have a certain way of playing that's different from people who recently started playing. And as you can see this game, the way we played still has a lot to improve on.

So when cakepie reads you as town, you played in a way that's already resembling the way town should see the game and play overall. He saw it, I didn't, my bad. If you look at cakepie's play, he's clearly trying to direct town to a clear goal of finding out who's town and who's mafia. ExO and TW are mafia, because even though they played very well, their play does not resemble a a town's play at all, and they do a pretty good job of mafia's play. Their goal was clearly to cause a lot of distraction to get town on the wrong track, try to blend in, and get town lynched. I know these concepts may be a little confusing, so I'll give a few examples.

This example I mentioned already. TW as "cop" gets a greencheck on hopeless on day 1, then proceeds to post scumreads on hopeless. He's very active, but doesn't do a lot to put pressure on people, and doesn't read people very deeply. If you are town, that's your objective, even as cop. As mafia, you want to muddy up the playing field and try to blend in and look towny without actually helping town. He played that very well by posting a lot, but nothing he posted revealed any new information or led to anything that helped town. He did a good job as mafia, crappy job as town. However, posting your best analysis on why hopeless is mafia is the key mistake. A cop has literally NO reason to scumread their green check. Not even to try to blend in and avoid getting shot. No town does this, no matter if you're new or experienced. However as mafia, your mindset is to hide, try to blend in, and cause some chaos. Posting a scumread on hopeless is consistent with the mentality of someone trying to hide. It's completely the opposite mentality of someone who's trying to get town a step closer to establishing the correct narrative that explains the game. It was a mistake coming from mafia.

Another example is the pregame banter between ExO and TW. Cakepie posted it in his big case:

#50, #51, #53, #61
- Hide Spoiler -
On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote:
Hi.

claiming Vanilla Town.

Going back to PoE
On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote:
ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0
On December 06 2016 15:57 ExO_ wrote:
And what if it is?
On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote:
it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you

This is a distancing maneuver.
Tinfoil: ExO isn't going to fakeclaim cop. Chalk one up for craycray's "scum isn't fakeclaiming"?


In the mafia encyclopedia, there's a big chapter on distancing. Some mafia like to act in a way that makes it seem like you can't be mafia together. This is an example of that. How do we know that this is mafia distancing, and not actually a town posting a genuine read? They made a mistake in the minor details. Tumblewood said that he might be biased against ExO. Diagnosing yourself with bias, or any sort of lack of skill, is a super mafia thing to say. From a town perspective, they will never ever say it because if they are aware they might be biased against someone, then just dont be biased against them, you are already aware of it. From a mafia perspective, it's a slight hint to town to not take his reads as seriously, or forgive him for flip flopping. No reason to do as town to come into a game, and announce "hey, I might be biased, just letting you know." Tumblewood after the day ends says his play was biased, and will try to post unbiased cases. Ie. "Forgive me for flipflopping". It might have been believable from a town, if they didn't admit they were biased at the very start, or literally post a scumread on their greencheck. So this might seem like a perfectly sound play from the mafia perspective, but makes no sense coming from town. If Tumblewood was talking to a town, he probably would have tried to be unbiased through the game, but he didn't, which means he was just throwing out a random term so we can distance himself from ExO.


I'll give you another example, and this one includes you. From a town perspective, if you are confident that someone is mafia, you would also know not to trust what they say. When this post was made, ExO was very confident that I am mafia to the point that he's not even answering all my questions or talking about some of my reads. However, he takes my scumread on you seriously:

On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 19:06 Chairman Ray wrote:
ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU:

On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote:
My original case about NU still stands.

At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense.

Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him?



For starters:

Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe.


Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them.

However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum.

So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU?


So let me ask you this. You are town, and someone you are confident is scum presents you a scumread. You don't really care what their read is, or at least it's not the first thing you care about. You should be mainly thinking about why the are saying that to you and why they want you to help lynch that person. But from a mafia perspective, you want to lynch town, any town. It's sometimes difficult to present cases on people you know are town, because everything they do you know comes from a town perspective. However if a town gave you a case against another town, you would be very interested in the mislynch oppurtunity. ExO is seriously considering that you might be mafia, because of a case I presented. He talks nothing about why a mafia ray would encourage him to scumread you. So do you think we are seeing a play from the town encyclopedia, or the mafia encyclopedia?

I've had a long day and I'm really tired right now, but I'll try to spend more time answering your questions and posting reads and such. Even if I don't win the game (which I don't deserve to), I feel bad for having cakepie put in all that work on my behalf.

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