EPTDark Tournament Mini Mafia
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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I'm town, hi town, nice to meet ya. | ||
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On December 01 2015 08:37 Rels wrote: Yo. If you're boxer you fucking shut up. There is two possible mafia setups: one with two possible town setups with one boxer each so it doesn't matter. And one when we have either boxer + vet, or cop + vig. In that last case, mafia wants to roleblock their kill target in the vet setup, or roleblock someone else on the cop + vig setup. Boxer claiming would make them know what is the thing to do. Tldr if you're boxer you shut up unless you're getting lynched. Tldr 2 the two people pushing for boxer to claim are suspicious. Damdred and doyouhas You don't make sense. Mafia get to know the setup info right? That's how I remember this kind of game working. Even if they don't, you are so afraid of gaming the rb that you would throw away a confirmed townie and better lynch choices? | ||
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DoYouHas
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On December 01 2015 08:50 Trfel wrote: Okay, what the heck. First of all, if you think about it for a second, you can probably see what I was trying to do. You may not agree with my method, but you know me well enough to see it. Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? I assumed your post was a bit of a joke. Reconsidering with how fast you jumped on the defensive here. | ||
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DoYouHas
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TLDR: you crazy trfel | ||
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On December 01 2015 09:49 The Shining wrote: What was the one point in Damded's first point you didn't agree with? Do you have any other reads outside of Damdred? In his second point he encouraged us to all make as many reads as we can. A swarm of reads, particularly ones that aren't strong just scatter the focus of the thread and make rereads a quagmire. I dislike lots of lists. There are a few times when giving a more complete picture of how you view the game is useful, like right before the end of the night. On the Shining/Palmar interaction so far. Palmar seems town to me with the productive way he is pressuring. I also like his reasoning as he is going after Shining. That being said, everything after this post + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 09:44 The Shining wrote: Welp since I'm a moron so early in the game, I see no reason to talk to Palmar now or ever again this game. If you're town, consider the fact that you just pissed off a townie to the point where I'm going to think everything you're doing in this game is wrong. So you can have fun pushing the d1 mislynch in me or leave me around and bumping heads with me the rest of the game. Talking to you isn't going to get either of us anywhere and I'm done with it. Get me lynched if you want, I just think you're retarded and stubborn town at this point and I still think Fidei's post is a lot less fine than you make it out to be so there's no reason for me to try and convince you otherwise. Strikes me as VERY townie. Fast, frustrated, and spiteful. The way he kept coming back for more after saying he was out feels like genuine emotional reaction to being pushed wrongly. Palmar basically pressured something that was a little out of place and then ran with it when Shining reacted poorly and went for OMGUS. For me that isn't enough for a lynch with my feel for Shining's play stated above. | ||
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DoYouHas
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So let's get into it. Rels and I disagree on optimal blue play. Whatever, nothing came of it and it isn't a useful topic anymore. This is in no way scummy. I figured scum know the setup because that was my experience (in another BH game IIRC) however, it has been a long time since I played so I asked the question in case this is no longer standard. (In the same vein, could someone tell me what TMI stands for?) Palmar didn't like that I defended Shining, or at least didn't like my reasons. He now agrees with me, moving on. The "weird progression" on Trfel is just a misrepresentation. I'm not sure how me disagreeing with him and calling him crazy means I have a town read on him. - I'm going to have a lot of afk time over the course of this game. I like sleep and I have a job where I can't post. Still going to put plenty of effort into playing, just don't have a wide window for posting. | ||
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On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote: I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk. | ||
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On December 02 2015 08:45 Trfel wrote: Like, seriously. I quit until Damdred is dead, however that happens. You think Damdred is probably town, you claim to be town, you won't help town until Damdred dies. Logic. | ||
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On December 02 2015 09:12 disformation wrote: @DYH can you also try to explain this part please?  Will me further explaining my preferences as a player help you get a better read on me? Obviously I'm not in favor of a stagnant thread. I remember criticizing you pretty sharply in the obsQT of your last game for posting a bunch of lists and handing out weak reads like candy. That is what I do not like. | ||
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DoYouHas
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Gnight folks @LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels. | ||
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DoYouHas
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I can't see any scum motivation behind Trfel's hard defending of me. It doesn't even look like positioning for my flip is even really a possibility here. I was going after him, voted him, thread sentiment is against me. I'm an easy EASY person for scum trfel to keep the heat on. That he ran the other direction when there is no reason to as mafia is major town points in my book. Unvoting. | ||
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##Vote: LS | ||
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Town reads on myself, trfel, and fid. Scum reads on Moosy and HtS. Convinced to lynch LS over Moosy. Seems pretty suspicious of Rels (#240 & #547) but doesn't really push him. Doesn't townread Palmar like many of us have (myself included). I think it is fair to say that he was at least townie-null on Damdred since it is Damdred's push on LS that got him to change his vote. - Conclusion: I need to reread HtS with the new knowledge of Kush and LS (I agree that the deadline post makes him very, very likely town). | ||
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On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two. although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? Her role in the lynch was jumping on the shenanigans wagon that Shining initiated. Plenty of people did the same thing and it happened fast. So it can't really be indicative of anything on its own. I think I'm seeing what Kush saw and then some. Gathering my thoughts. | ||
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DoYouHas
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2. HtS spreads around quite a bit of suspicion but does not actually push anyone or really take the lead on anything. - She scumleans me, plants her vote, and then does nothing to see me lynched. According to #555 I was actually more of a null read and her suspicion and vote were to get me to post more. There is no follow through here, either pressure wise or lynchwise. - She scumleans kush, points out some stuff that she doesn't like, and then does nothing about it until shenanigans. 3. In spite of all her RL issues she has been plenty active, she is just not really doing anything except engaging Trfel and playing the middle ground. 4. Her play towards LS is highly suspicious. The way I understand it, HtS knows LS better than most. She was reading him critically before any of us and moved him towards null/scum first. She seems unwilling to lynch LS... until Damdred and Palmar take the lead. Then she provides a weak additional reason to not like LS (#627) and switches votes. Does she feel the need to justify her switch beyond just agreeing with Damdred and Palmar? Here is the important part. Right after LS re-enters the thread super emotional, HtS starts positioning for a townflip and distancing herself from responsibility for the lynch. LS is someone she knows better than most. She immediately starts doubting the wagon after he reenters the thread. Her response is, "quick! LS, prove to me you are town!" and "crap, I can't get a good enough sense of his meta in 20 minutes to derail this thing!". With the level of doubt she displayed on the wagon she was helping push she should have been among the first to push onto another candidate. Whether that is me or kush, which would make sense for her, or even just Moosy. Any of those plays makes sense for HtS. Instead, she sits on wagon she doesn't like for 30 minutes and only switches when somebody else will get the blame for starting a counterwagon, incidentally, onto another townie. | ||
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On December 03 2015 13:48 Trfel wrote: Does anyone have any thoughts at all about the previous game quote I brought up about Damdred and LightningStrike? I think that the two games look extremely similar to me, thus I think that it makes Damdred likely mafia. I realize that this is subjective and would like to hear what others have to say. I will take a look at it tomorrow, but that kind of read is one of my least favorite. Meta works because it is generalized trends in play. Different circumstances, games, and context often makes similar looking quotes do not mean the same thing for alignment. Even if the games seem similar. Gnight folks. | ||
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DoYouHas
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On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote: I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it. | ||
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On December 03 2015 14:52 DoYouHas wrote: 1. HtS padded her filter with a lot of recapping and clarifying and meta that doesn't lead to conclusions. 2. HtS spreads around quite a bit of suspicion but does not actually push anyone or really take the lead on anything. - She scumleans me, plants her vote, and then does nothing to see me lynched. According to #555 I was actually more of a null read and her suspicion and vote were to get me to post more. There is no follow through here, either pressure wise or lynchwise. - She scumleans kush, points out some stuff that she doesn't like, and then does nothing about it until shenanigans. 3. In spite of all her RL issues she has been plenty active, she is just not really doing anything except engaging Trfel and playing the middle ground. 4. Her play towards LS is highly suspicious. The way I understand it, HtS knows LS better than most. She was reading him critically before any of us and moved him towards null/scum first. She seems unwilling to lynch LS... until Damdred and Palmar take the lead. Then she provides a weak additional reason to not like LS (#627) and switches votes. Does she feel the need to justify her switch beyond just agreeing with Damdred and Palmar? Here is the important part. Right after LS re-enters the thread super emotional, HtS starts positioning for a townflip and distancing herself from responsibility for the lynch. LS is someone she knows better than most. She immediately starts doubting the wagon after he reenters the thread. Her response is, "quick! LS, prove to me you are town!" and "crap, I can't get a good enough sense of his meta in 20 minutes to derail this thing!". With the level of doubt she displayed on the wagon she was helping push she should have been among the first to push onto another candidate. Whether that is me or kush, which would make sense for her, or even just Moosy. Any of those plays makes sense for HtS. Instead, she sits on wagon she doesn't like for 30 minutes and only switches when somebody else will get the blame for starting a counterwagon, incidentally, onto another townie. | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote: Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing. @Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less. It could be as simple as Damdred is a solid town player, and was read as town by the majority of the players. He clearly had influence as evidenced by the LS wagon. That is enough to make him a good kill. His reads are worth more now that we know for sure he was town, and should be considered carefully, but there is plenty to make him a good nightkill beyond his reads. (Sorry, I know you wanted FF to answer) | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:10 NocturneMage wrote: I see what you are saying here but there are people here saying she is town for that, and there are proven cases of her doing this as town when she doesn't have an alternative scumread. She has mislynched people as town/town-oriented third party trying to do stuff like this. The problem is where she actually goes and why. She would have mislynched LS if it was in her best interest to mislynch him, the reason she went to kush is because kush was scumreading her. This is what I was saying before, she has a track record of wanting to kill people who want her dead. The reason I asked you before what her role was in the lynch is because generally her play as mafia is to do one of two things - make a bunch of cases and do nothing with it, or ferret people and do nothing with it, or she WILL push someone but she won't do it until ridiculously close to end of cycle. I feel like we are arguing semantics but I want to be right about this. -She does have alternative scumreads as well as a perfectly good policy lynch in moosy as options. -It is in her best interest to lynch him, because she was positioning for a townflip On December 03 2015 07:35 Half the Sky wrote: Shining - checking the Drams filter then. I think he was in school at that time so that should normalise for his being afk. .....and this is why I stated he had 30 minutes to talk to us. Or whatever I said, it's more than enough time to discuss and run an alternate lynch. He does freak out at the slightest bit of pressure and he claims prematurely when he's blue, here he claimed VT though. Paraphrasing, "I'm giving him plenty of time to convince me otherwise, not my fault, I'm reasonable with the person I'm lynching" | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:33 NocturneMage wrote: She would have positioned for a townflip either way....so you are still right. I'm not fighting you at all DYH, but if you are so convinced she's mafia, why don't you vote her with me? Done. | ||
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On December 04 2015 10:34 disformation wrote: Ah actually, upon looking at DYH again... Let me bring up Rels case again. Cause it got kinda lost in the forest. On December 04 2015 10:43 disformation wrote: My big problem with DYH: Look at his filter. Outside the case on HtS how many reads are there? + Show Spoiler + 0 At the EoD1 he says I am a town read of him, when the last mention of me is being in the "middleground-group". So the few reads are kinda magical and can come and go without explanation. And when this is pointed out, he flat out ignores it. On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote: Too make my argument a bit more readable:
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. On December 04 2015 10:56 disformation wrote: So DYH could have basically voted anyone D1... Also the decent posts, where he is looking at HtS, start N1... after NocturneMage got replaced in... His case is also posted after NM comes in and posts that piece on HtS very likely to be mafia... (Post#1)Rels Case: 1. Rels is wrong. The value in the information of a confirmed town through claim to town far exceeds the value of setup information to scum. (And this is even granting that scum don't know the setup, which we don't know.) Espousing this does not make me scum, it makes me right. 2. Rels is misrepresenting me and ignoring my actual read progression on Trfel. My disagreement with Trfel on Damdred and subsequent response to him asking "am I sane or not" is not a townread. My mindmeld post was written without regard to Damdred's weak townread on Trfel. My actual read progression: Suspicious -> Null -> Scum -> Town -> Unsure without review 3. I admit I was not an effective scumhunter day1. I had a feel for the game which led me to believe that there were scum in the middleground. I spent some time looking at playres I felt fit that description, but nothing really stuck out to me such that I wanted to push a lynch on any of them. The only thing I felt was a lack of content from LS. I didn't think it was enough of a reason to push him, so instead I asked for his reads on my mover and shaker group, Damdred, Palmar, Rels. The smart play for town if you do not have any good scumreads of your own at the end of the day is to sheep the scumreads of those you believe to be town, which is exactly what I did. And yes, Disfo gets lumped into my towngroup. That was my gut read from the earlier filter reading. Not particularly useful when I was searching for scum as I was choking on town/null reads and unable to find things I wanted to pursue. It was useful in deciding where to place my vote at the end of the day. (Post#2) 0 reads? Townread-Damdred Townread-Palmar Townread-Shining Scumread-Trfel Townread-Trfel Townread-Disfo For what is essentially a 1 page filter with the HtS stuff I get more solid reads in here than your average joe. Yeah, I sucked at getting scumreads but that is just a fact of my Day1. (Post#3) See response to post 1. (Post#4) It is quite the opposite of what you are saying here. There is virtually nobody I could have put my vote on by the EoD and not caught flak for it. Leaving yourself options is when you make a bunch of null reads or spread around suspicion on multiple targets so that you are justified no matter where your vote lands. I looked into HtS more carefully because of Kush flip. NM even brings up my post as the reason he first is suspecting her. | ||
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Palmar- believes he is town through most of the day. Becomes a little less convinced before he dies, but still a townread. Shining- Townread Rels- Townread, thinks he has a penchant for tunneling. LS- He believes the EoD D1 makes LS town. Trfel- Town that is wrong. Spends a lot of time trying to figure trfel out and waivers a lot. Fid- Townread early, likes what he has to say but is suspicious of him for activity/meta reasons. Disfo- Townread but not part of the "Strong town circle" DYH- Liked me early, didn't mention me much, but was ok with shifting to me or kush at EoD. So, null/scumlean. Moosy- Null - Where Damdred overlaps with Kush is the townread on Fid, and that is about it. | ||
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On December 06 2015 05:39 LightningStrike wrote: DYH if for some reason HTS was not in threat of being lynched who would you lynch instead and why? Probably Trfel. I've been rereading D1 and I still don't like his early play. He seems all over the place with tons of effort and lots of shifting reads. What fooled me when I observed his last game about him was I couldn't believe that someone could be so bullheaded and so wrong and be scum. It fits for him to muck up the thread and just force out so much content that it is hard to see the trees as Disfo would put it. I'm not all the way there on a scum case for him but I do think he has a reasonable chance of flipping scum and flipping him would clarify a lot about this game as virtually everyone has interacted with and/or taken a stance on him. So my pick is mostly a dislike of some of his play. A desire to simplify the game by taking one of the biggest ???s out. And a fear read because I've thrown by his scumgame before. | ||
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DoYouHas
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Town: Rels, Shining, LS(I am still on board with the EoD VT claim) Townlean: Disfo, Palmar, Fid (need to look into him more) Unfiltered: NM, FF Suspicious but incomplete: Trfel Scum: HTS | ||
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Huzzah! | ||
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1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town. 2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS. 3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy. Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet. | ||
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DoYouHas
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Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote: Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining... 1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads. Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere. Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case. 2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo 3. Trfel, Disfo, LS Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy) HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in... 4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo - Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia. However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting. - I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves. ##Vote: Disformation | ||
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DoYouHas
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Her interaction with Trfel makes him very likely town. Damdred is confirmed town. Rels is likely town and her interaction with him is not out of place. Kush is confirmed town. I'm town. Also, her scumread on me was consistent and something that she came back to more than once. | ||
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This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true. ##Unvote My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum. | ||
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On December 09 2015 06:52 NocturneMage wrote: continuing back end of filter. This is entirely true, now to check it in context. two questions (1) prioritisation of issues, not clear on how to pursue people - why trfel and fidei, disfo drop was fine because it was the same issue - they can't control what hts does and so they have to look at the interactions from both people. (2) were some of these statements with thread sentiment, like to blend in? checking context of thread. might even need to parse a scum game of his. still really not sure this trumps trfel but damn me if I don't check shit first. I'm here through deadline now. Ask me stuff. I'm reading filters atm. Disfo, you should shelf the title of "best case of career" for when you write one with a correct conclusion. | ||
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##Vote: Disformation Shining, get on this wagon. | ||
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##Vote: Disfo See you all tomorrow. | ||
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On December 11 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote: DYH, I have a question for you. Let me give you this hypothetical scenario. You are town. Let's say disformation is lynched, and he flips town. Who is likely to be scum in that situation and why? Rels, definitely rels. I'm actually considering him being potentially more likely than disfo. Trfel's death points his direction. He has push cases and suspicions almost exclusively on townies. He defends or doesn't interact with scum. | ||
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Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going. Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up. The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels. It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo. ##Vote: Rels | ||
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On December 12 2015 07:17 Rels wrote: Your filter dive had him as town at EOD1 and during D2. It was only a HTS' filter analysis that put him as scum. You never filter dove him (when you said you would BTW) and just went for him. Yes. I put off a full filter analysis of him. When I caught back up it looked like the lynch was going to be between Fid and Trfel so I put my energy there. | ||
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On December 12 2015 07:18 Rels wrote: I'm at a comp. Come at me bros. DYH why are you voting me ? My reasons haven't changed, I could expand them for you if you like but that will take up a good bit of time for me to go through your filter again. | ||
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On December 12 2015 07:23 The Shining wrote: So you hadnt read my night case on Disfo either when you voted? Nope | ||
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Stick to the plan and follow up with Rels and NM. | ||
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Let's get this thread moving again. Just lynching randomly into the people that aren't shining gives us 50% chance of winning, and from my perspective we are at 67% of winning this thing. @LS- Pick the scum from disfo/NM and tell me why @Disfo- Pick the scum from LS/NM and tell me why @NM- Pick the scum from disfo/LS and tell me why @Shining- Frustrating as the flips were, please get back in here. I do want to win this thing in spite of my lack of activity might show. | ||
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On December 14 2015 04:24 disformation wrote: Ah nearly forgot: DoYouHas a preferred sweetheart atm? Currently in the first half of NM's filter. Still getting the town feels. Will see if that persists by the time I get to the end. I agree with Shining's votecount reasoning why LS is unlikely (he could have easily prevented the FF lynch as an outlier voter, but didn't) My money is currently on you Disfo in spite of the hammer. I'm not 100% on this, but we'll see how things shake out. | ||
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On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote: So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make. Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote: Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining... 1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads. Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere. Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case. 2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo 3. Trfel, Disfo, LS Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy) HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in... 4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo - Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia. However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting. This analysis is getting stronger btw. ##Vote: Disfo | ||
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On December 15 2015 08:06 Rels wrote: I deserved my lynch, I played super badly. Sry DYH for the game-long tunnel (= Sorry for lynching you. I was a pretty easy person to tunnel this game. | ||
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On December 15 2015 08:18 disformation wrote: Also I need to figure out a way to play this game a bit more efficiently. Like I feel I am trying to cover my lack of skill in some areas with time/effort. And the last two games took a huge chunk out of my time. Remarkably, I felt this way too. I just felt like most of the time I didn't have anything relevant/important to say. | ||
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