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On December 03 2015 07:43 Half the Sky wrote:
I got through LS's Drams filter, he had school/schoolwork in that game too but had way more pointed reads. Shining was spot on. I had a moment of doubt that maybe, just maybe Half the Sky is town.
I checked LightningStrike's Day 1 from Battle of the Drams mafia and I did not see the difference described above (compared to this game).On December 03 2015 07:28 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:25 Half the Sky wrote:
This is LS and he generally is a very emotional player. I know others can fake emotion but this IS LS.
LS, what do you think of Trfel and what do you think of Damdred? Talk to us for cripe's sake if you are town, you have half an hour.
Let me check Warcraft 3 since I am assuming that's the game that Shining is referring to? Drams is the game. And comparing the filters from the two games, there is a lot more reads and content from him in Drams then here over 2 pages. And his questions were much more pointed. The Shining also said that LightningStrike's Battle of the Drams Mafia filter had more reads and was more pointed than this game.
Here is his filter. Can I get a fourth opinion? I counted 1 scumread on Day 1 in both filters, just this game he made the read (basically) himself and in that game it was purely sheeped. I didn't look too much at town reads, but I felt it was fairly similar (do note that Battle of the Drams was probably twice as long Day 1 as this game was, thus much more opportunity for reads). The question is, am I right, and if so, how possible is it for town to interpret this filter the other way?
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On December 05 2015 09:13 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 08:37 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 07:43 Half the Sky wrote:
I got through LS's Drams filter, he had school/schoolwork in that game too but had way more pointed reads. Shining was spot on. I had a moment of doubt that maybe, just maybe Half the Sky is town. I checked LightningStrike's Day 1 from Battle of the Drams mafia and I did not see the difference described above (compared to this game). On December 03 2015 07:28 The Shining wrote:On December 03 2015 07:25 Half the Sky wrote:
This is LS and he generally is a very emotional player. I know others can fake emotion but this IS LS.
LS, what do you think of Trfel and what do you think of Damdred? Talk to us for cripe's sake if you are town, you have half an hour.
Let me check Warcraft 3 since I am assuming that's the game that Shining is referring to? Drams is the game. And comparing the filters from the two games, there is a lot more reads and content from him in Drams then here over 2 pages. And his questions were much more pointed. The Shining also said that LightningStrike's Battle of the Drams Mafia filter had more reads and was more pointed than this game. Here is his filter. Can I get a fourth opinion? I counted 1 scumread on Day 1 in both filters, just this game he made the read (basically) himself and in that game it was purely sheeped. I didn't look too much at town reads, but I felt it was fairly similar (do note that Battle of the Drams was probably twice as long Day 1 as this game was, thus much more opportunity for reads). The question is, am I right, and if so, how possible is it for town to interpret this filter the other way? Uh, was looking at the first 5 pages of his filter... which reads? Like I saw very few town reads and his scum reads where more like "I could lynch one of those three". So not pointed at all... But I found this gem: Show nested quote +On October 03 2015 07:36 LightningStrike wrote:On October 03 2015 07:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Seriously what teh fuck is wrong with people?
"LightningStrike could you read the thread before you post because... you know that's how this game is played?"
"Every time I tried to talk to Rayn I felt like I hitting a brickwall voer and over and just gave up trying to talk since he so tunneled."
BULLSHIT BULLSHIT BULLSHIT"! YOU TREATED ME THE SAME FUCKING WAY YOU DID WHEN I DIDN'T READ THE FUCKING OP RIGHT IN OUR LAST GAME AND YOU EXPECT ME TO BE SCUM FOR THE SAME FUCKING THING I DID AS TOWN? JESUS CHRIST YOU'RE BAD So he DOES that when he is town... The second quote was after the point where The Shining stopped reading, though. So you can't guarantee that he would have seen it.
How would you compare LightningStrike's filter (pre-yelling) this game to the Day 1 (and only the Day 1) of his filter last game?
And thanks a bunch for reading through that and sharing your thoughts 
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I think I am going to (for now) make the assumption that Rels is town because I need him to be town. And disformation, too.
The following is to Rels and disformation.
+ Show Spoiler +Step 1: I'm town + Show Spoiler +Hi, I'm town.
Rels, Remember that first game we played together? The Newbie game? Where I was mafia with WaveofShadow and we dominated? I looked really good for most of that game, and I was scum.
The game after that, I didn't play for ~two days, nearly got mislynched a few times I think, and ended up completely throwing the game for town. And the last two town games I've played, I was a lynch candidate throughout (though never seriously a wagon).
My point being that for some players (I'd say most), how "good" or "bad" they look (aka thread standing/status) doesn't really show their alignment.
In this game, I have been scumread a ton for my read progression at the start of Day 2. My play at this time was bad, because I made night kill analysis that had too many assumptions and was too likely to be wrong. And I changed my reads based on this analysis. However, there is no mafia motivation for doing this and at face value it does not say anything about my alignment.
Having just come off of a game as scum, I'm obviously town in this game because I often have trouble playing town after being scum, much less being mafia. That argument aside, my reads are based on completely different things this game than they are as scum. It's easy for me to look through a filter and call the person scum because of it, it's a lot harder to go through and analyze the mafia motivation and the ways that they could be town. I realize that this is self-meta and I am aware of it, but two things. First, I don't think it's something I can effectively replicate as mafia (though I've never tried). Second, it's extremely town motivated; you can evaluate my read progression for yourself, I think it's obvious that I am putting critical thought into the game and trying to consider things from every angle.
Other than the aforementioned night kill analysis, I think that my play has been fairly solid. I haven't really been scumread for anything other than the night kill analysis (and my read changes caused by it) and "playing to my scum meta", both arguments I have dismissed. Step 2: I think that too many people are mafia + Show Spoiler +I think that DoYouHas could maybe be mafia, his activity has seemed really low, however the case on Half the Sky (assuming for the moment that Half the Sky is scum) feels genuine. I don't have as much problem with the "I got nothing on Half the Sky" then "here's why Half the Sky is mafia" because his biggest point came after the first thing was said, but I need to check and see.
I'm assuming that you are town because I am.
I haven't looked at Fidei86 yet, but his activity has been really high lately. I've heard people use meta to say that high activity makes him 100% town, however that's not too reliable and I should look.
I think that Half the Sky is mafia.
I think that LightningStrike is town for a few reasons, but there's a small chance he could be mafia.
I think that The Shining is maybe town, but I haven't looked at him in a while. His play seemed very different after everyone stopped pushing him, I haven't really felt his thread presence much (though I could easily be wrong on both of these points). I liked his townread of me, but given that everyone else thinks the opposite this might actually suggest that he is mafia. And finally, I have no clue how he concluded that LightningStrike is scum in this game due to comparison with his Drams mafia filter.
I guess disformation is probably town, but he could be mafia. However, I'm assuming that he is town.
I think that NocturneMage is sort of mafia.
I think that Fecalfeast is sort of town, but he could be mafia.
I think that Palmar may be mafia.
Basically, that's seven people I think may be mafia with a reasonable enough chance (and that's not including my assumption that you two are town). Which is way too many. It is probably safe imo to consider Fecalfeast as town, leaving six people: Fidei86 (just because I haven't looked at him), Half the Sky, The Shining, NocturneMage, DoYouHas, and Palmar. Which still feels like a lot, given that I'm not completely sold on everyone else.
This makes it really hard for me to be confident in my reads because I'm suspicious of so many people? It makes me feel like I'm doing something wrong, like I'm stretching on my reasons to scumread people. I need some help/advice here? Step 3: I think that NocturneMage is mafia. I'm either right about this with great reasons, or I'm wrong, all my reasons are garbage, and NocturneMage is the most obvious town in the game. There's nothing in between, and this annoys me. + Show Spoiler +First of all, NocturneMage has been really really good at making himself look good and making me look really really bad. I don't know if this is indicative of him being town or mafia, but I need to say this first.
I feel that I've raised several good points against NocturneMage, and he's really good at seemingly dismissing them (without actually dismissing them) in a way that makes me look really bad (objectively bad, not necessarily alignment indicative, usually). He's able to do this because I've been saying way too much, and I haven't been focusing on the important things. Therefore, he's able to make huge arguments over things that don't matter, and ignore the important points. Or manipulate the argument into one that can't be resolved for either side. I'll probably take another try at explaining my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage soon, but making concise arguments that can't be argued into an argument that you can't prove (to everyone, not just yourself) are difficult for me.
Raising a ton of points instead of a few key ones is a really horrible habit of mine.
Basically, two questions.
1. Do my arguments for scumreading NocturneMage make any sense? Or am I completely on another planet? If the latter, then I'm probably just very wrong and a re-explanation doesn't change this.
2. Is NocturneMage obviously town for other reasons (namely, activity and thread presence) that no other argument could significantly change this? I personally don't think so, but I realize that I am biased.
Note that I still feel that my case against MoosyDoosy earlier was extremely strong, perhaps not a 99.9% read but an 80% read or so (MoosyDoosy's post-deadline posts don't fit with my mafia mindset for him, I can't ignore this). However, since Damdred didn't think so, and Damdred's a really good player, I have more doubt about that. Last time I was town, I made what I thought was a really solid case and Damdred completely disagreed and I was right, but Damdred could very well be right this time. What influence, if any, do you think MoosyDoosy's play has on determining NocturneMage's alignment? Step 4: Other people + Show Spoiler +What about the other players in the game? Unfortunately I'm busy and don't have time to go over everyone myself, but I'm mostly looking at Fidei86, The Shining, DoYouHas, and Palmar (excluding Half the Sky because she's very likely mafia, and NocturneMage because he was discussed earlier).
Do you feel that any of them can be put out of the "suspicious" range for now, and why? Do any of them deserve more attention? For the record, I'm spoilering this for only you two because no one else has shown willingness to work with me. Except for Fecalfeast, who so far has been too lazy to do much real work, so he doesn't count for this. It doesn't help town if I put out a ton of text about reads that I'm not sure about when no one else cares to talk about it with me. If there are any statements that you disagree with here, please explain. I'm very wrong, very often. Same if you want something to be elaborated on.
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On December 05 2015 10:14 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +I guess disformation is probably town, but he could be mafia. However, I'm assuming that he is town. okay? Can I be a planar dragon, too? I've always wanted to be a planar dragon! Well, that post will take a while to properly read and write an answer to. Will take a shower, get myself something to drink and try to write something up before I fall asleep (it is already 2 am here). Oof, didn't realize that. It's not urgent, pretty sure Half the Sky is getting lynched today anyway, and I'd be pretty darn happy if scum shoots me in the night.
Though I guess scum might shoot you in the night, which would make me really sad 
On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:
hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? Can I take this one, or did you want disformation to answer?
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On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:
hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it
Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this.
From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier.
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On December 05 2015 10:55 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 10:29 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:
hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this. From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier. Hm, I guess this makes sense. Maybe I need to look more closely but let's assume there's no shenanigans tomorrow and HTS flips red. What does that make you think of DYH? I'm fairly suspicious of DoYouHas. I'm not really sure what implications a Half the Sky scum flip would have on DoYouHas.
Do you have any thoughts about NocturneMage or anyone else that you want to talk about?
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On December 05 2015 11:07 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 11:01 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:55 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 05 2015 10:29 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:
hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this. From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier. Hm, I guess this makes sense. Maybe I need to look more closely but let's assume there's no shenanigans tomorrow and HTS flips red. What does that make you think of DYH? I'm fairly suspicious of DoYouHas. I'm not really sure what implications a Half the Sky scum flip would have on DoYouHas. Do you have any thoughts about NocturneMage or anyone else that you want to talk about? DYH brought up HTS as possibler scum before NM and NM referenced DYH in his post calling HTS scummy. I think NM's entrance set a bit of a scummy tone initially but his recent postings have been pointed and he seems to be following a logical thought progression. He's obviously very confident in his HTS read which is why I'm sheeped all over that. I think NM is towny though I'm pretty allergic to deep reading right now. also he has 5 pages after replacing in night 1, is NM known to be a high effort scum? By "pointed", what do you mean?
NocturneMage isn't known to be high effort as mafia, but that is off of only one game. My first mafia game was terrible and my second mafia game was somewhat high effort and good.
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On December 05 2015 11:16 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 11:13 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 11:07 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 05 2015 11:01 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:55 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 05 2015 10:29 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:
hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this. From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier. Hm, I guess this makes sense. Maybe I need to look more closely but let's assume there's no shenanigans tomorrow and HTS flips red. What does that make you think of DYH? I'm fairly suspicious of DoYouHas. I'm not really sure what implications a Half the Sky scum flip would have on DoYouHas. Do you have any thoughts about NocturneMage or anyone else that you want to talk about? DYH brought up HTS as possibler scum before NM and NM referenced DYH in his post calling HTS scummy. I think NM's entrance set a bit of a scummy tone initially but his recent postings have been pointed and he seems to be following a logical thought progression. He's obviously very confident in his HTS read which is why I'm sheeped all over that. I think NM is towny though I'm pretty allergic to deep reading right now. also he has 5 pages after replacing in night 1, is NM known to be a high effort scum? By "pointed", what do you mean? NocturneMage isn't known to be high effort as mafia, but that is off of only one game. My first mafia game was terrible and my second mafia game was somewhat high effort and good. there is a point to the things he says rather than posting for the sake of posting. I'll admit I'm using that word without fully knowing what it means and basing it off the context that others have used it in Ah, I was thinking that it meant that there's a direction to the posting. Which I've felt has been completely lacking.
He started off (nearly) entirely focused on four people, then transitioned to (nearly) entirely focusing on everyone else. Nearly entirely probably isn't proper grammar, but you get my point.
I don't think it's that hard to avoid the appearance of "posting for the sake of posting" as mafia? At all? Appearing to be trying to solve the game, though, is much harder (and very different).
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@disformation:
I'd argue that my play has not been that bad thus far, as judged by both playstyle and read accuracy, as I've done a lot of good/correct things despite two errors (Damdred read and night kill analysis). I believe it was stated once that top level mafia players should try for 60% read accuracy on scumreads and 90% read accuracy on townreads, which caused a huge argument where almost everyone said that those numbers weren't possible for even the best players. I remember keeping track of my scumread percentage earlier in my mafia "career", and stopped once it dipped significantly below the RNG percentage . But either way, this game I've been wrong on one scumread, at face value that is not alignment indicative, because even the best players aren't always right.
I do need to take a look at the bigger picture, but I haven't had time to do so yet. I hate looking at people at a glance, I'd much rather look at one person in detail than ten on the surface, so I was hoping to get some direction (and I got it, I will look at DoYouHas tonight, though that shouldn't take too long I hope).
Thanks for explaining your NocturneMage read. If this is similar to what most other people are thinking, and my guess is that it is, this makes me think that NocturneMage has gotten a lot of townreads for weak reasons and that he really could be mafia.
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Most of my issues with DoYouHas are, on some level, wording issues. This really makes me hesitate to lynch him, because wording issues aren't very reliable.
A lot of the things that DoYouHas has done this game are fairly good. His reads feel natural and town motivated, and while I don't agree with a lot of his decisions (or think that his conclusions are what he ought to arrive at based on what he says), I don't feel that his conclusions are faked and it feels more like he genuinely just thinks differently than me.
Unfortunately, when DoYouHas came back towards End of Day 1, he wasn't very active. He didn't seem to really care to look into lynch candidates or push his lynch at all. While I don't like this, I can still see it coming from town for a variety of reasons, it leaves a horrible taste in my mouth, but I can't lynch DoYouHas for this alone. One interesting thing that I noticed about this is to look at the times where DoYouHas comes to the thread on each day (24 hour day, not mafia day). In the first and third 24 hour day, he arrives 2-3 hours after the deadline. In the second 24 hour day (where the lynch is), he arrives an hour before the deadline. This suggests that he might be busier than normal at this time, and perhaps not in full capacity to read, post, and investigate things. This isn't all that important, but it's an example of a potential hole in the scumread for this reason. DoYouHas didn't mention this, but he does seem to be an extremely slow player, such that an hour may not be enough time for him to do a that much reading and trying to find a lynch target.
Looking more carefully at DoYouHas' case on Half the Sky, more than half of the points are directly about or primarily refer to things that happened towards End of Day 1, or after he first went through Half the Sky's filter and got nothing.
Also, I sort of asked some questions to DoYouHas earlier that he already answered. And he already answered in exactly the way that I'd expect town to answer. It doesn't make him town, by any means, but he continues to respond to suspicion exactly like I feel that town would.
Ignoring associations with Half the Sky for now (and will continue do so until after the lynch, or perhaps baby seals), DoYouHas still seems like a town lean. His play is not scummy, wording issues aren't scummy. His play makes sense and shows some critical thinking. The biggest issue with his play is activity. While he was more active in previous games, two things. First, those games were a long time ago, it's very possible that either his schedule or play has changed since then. Second, games were a bit shorter then and the playstyle was different. I think that it is safest to primarily judge his play based on what he's done in this game, and I don't feel comfortable lynching him at all. Probably a town lean, though the lower activity makes this difficult, but I think I go with my instinct for now (that DoYouHas is town).
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Sorry for the triple post But there were a few more things I meant to say. I know, I talk way too much.
When someone is scumread by basically everyone, and you can see them trying to solve the game and critically thinking (even if not as you would expect, but in their own way), from my experience, they are generally town. Note the "in their own way" part, this one is huge. Not everyone plays the game in the same way. The current expectations for "good town play" at TL Mafia aren't agreed upon at all, and even if they were, you'd have a bunch of players wouldn't/couldn't follow them as town. If a player is doing something useless, but if it seems like they actually think it's important, then that suggests that they actually care about helping town. Even if what they're doing is actually useless.
This applies to both LightningStrike and DoYouHas. Their play is different from that of everyone else in this game (and different from each other), but at some point they were both scumread by basically everyone, and they've both seemed to be trying to solve the game, in their own way (however good/bad you think that may be, which is a matter of opinion).
From past experience with LightningStrike, he is one of the players that I have by far the most trouble reading. With LightningStrike, I have to largely abandon my normal reading methods (which I apply to basically everyone else) and use special methods just for him. This is mostly based on how interested/invested he seems in the game, and a series of really stupid tells that I like to think are somewhat accurate.
From this game, his jokes and general posting seems to show a level of investment in the game, and it does seem like he's working things through and solving the game. While I don't agree with many of his reads, I can see how he might arrive at those conclusions. The fact that the lynch switched to him so easily on Day 1 is one indicator that he is town. And no, this isn't an associative read; it's extremely likely that the mafia team would have tried to resist LightningStrike's lynch a bit, which wasn't seen. Second, that deadline post. No, it isn't 100%, but it's still a good reason that points towards him being town. Third, the way his activity has increased since then and his play has improved is very towny.
Imagine for a moment that you are mafia, and you are struggling to get townread. And you nearly get lynched Day 1. You get really angry and spam caps lock all over the thread, but it doesn't do much and you're still suspected. Finally, as people start to switch wagons off of you right before the deadline, you get inspiration! And you post that you are VT as if you thought that you died. And it works brilliantly! You avoid the lynch, and everyone (most importantly the person who led your lynch) is convinced that you are town. You keep on playing, and things are going well. However, despite your best efforts, soon people start scumreading you again. More and more, until nearly every person in the thread is scumreading you again.
This would be extremely demotivating, you just made the play of your life and it didn't matter at all. But LightningStrike's effort level has continued to go up.
Two tells that suggest that LightningStrike is town and show his effort level going up are when he goes out of his way to provide links to past games for meta reasons, and when he provides a bunch of links to games where he played as different alignments to show his meta. He does these things much more often as town than as mafia (does he do them as mafia at all, I'm not sure). I didn't see these tells that much on Day 1, but since then, the frequency has increased.
Okay, so that was way longer than I had expected, but the point is that I'm fairly confident that LightningStrike is town.
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@Rels:
I believe that you are moderately suspicious about Palmar, but I checked your filter again and I didn't see anything referencing your Palmar read recently. Can you please clarify?
I think that your case on DoYouHas does not show that he is mafia at all. I didn't think that you had any updated reasons, but I might have missed them. I've posted my thoughts about DoYouHas, based on your last post I'm assuming you still think he is mafia, why?
I'm going to go to bed now, I'll see your response in the morning. Unless I can't sleep, then I guess I'll be playing mafia straight to the lynch... ugh.
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On December 05 2015 18:36 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 18:33 Trfel wrote:
@Rels:
I believe that you are moderately suspicious about Palmar, but I checked your filter again and I didn't see anything referencing your Palmar read recently. Can you please clarify?
I think that your case on DoYouHas does not show that he is mafia at all. I didn't think that you had any updated reasons, but I might have missed them. I've posted my thoughts about DoYouHas, based on your last post I'm assuming you still think he is mafia, why?
I'm going to go to bed now, I'll see your response in the morning. Unless I can't sleep, then I guess I'll be playing mafia straight to the lynch... ugh. Palmar hasn't done anything to make me change my read. I obviously don't agree with your take on my case. I think in particular, his total apathy towards the lynch is scum indicative. I agree about the apathy towards the lynch, however I think that this is the only valid suspicion of him. And I don't think that it's strong enough to lynch him alone.
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On December 06 2015 07:41 Half the Sky wrote:
Sigh. The things I want to say to Alex are unprintable here and Blazinghand is running this show. Figures.
Alright, hold on. I'm here, and I'm listening.
And I'm sad/frustrated beyond belief, but oh well.
I have a million questions for you, but there is no time.
Why did you decide that LightningStrike's Drams mafia filter was different from his filter this game? I didn't see this at all, neither did disformation.
In the eight minutes between the deadline and you deciding that you didn't want to lynch LightningStrike, you didn't actually discuss the counterwagon options. What were you doing during this time?
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On December 06 2015 07:53 Half the Sky wrote:
With respect to this game, no, life is another matter. I know that feeling all too well XD
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On December 06 2015 07:56 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 07:55 Half the Sky wrote:On December 06 2015 07:44 LightningStrike wrote:
HTS what you think of Alex's case on you? and what was your thoughts at EoD1? Bah I missed this one. Alex is being Alex. He has to accuse me of being mafia, that was the first thing on his mind, he seemed quite giddy. I don't like how he's after you though. I think James had a great metaphor, a Jack Russell on meth. Sums up his play perfectly, really. EoD honestly I was just hoping we had it right. And I was going to go right to bed after deadline because I was just so gone at that point. So does that make Alex town or scum and why? Oh, LightningStrike....
I mean, look at where she's voting XD
+ Show Spoiler +It makes NocturneMage scum and bussing, but whatever, we can talk about that later.
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On December 06 2015 07:58 LightningStrike wrote:
Also I hope you get a full recovery on your health Dani. Definitely.
Doesn't seem like anything is capable of holding you down, though.
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Okay, so NOW we can talk about what the flip means about other peoples' alignments.
The reason I wanted to wait is to see what Half the Sky did when she came back to the thread. Not what she did, but how much effort she put in.
If the lynch was led by non-mafia, Half the Sky would be more likely to put in a ton of effort to try and fight it. If the lynch was led by mafia, Half the Sky would be more likely to avoid fighting it, since it's inevitable.
To me, Half the Sky's effort appeared to be an attempt to make it look like the bus wasn't planned and that she was sort of trying to fight it, but that seems that it wasn't the case. Half the Sky's End of Day play looked more like she was playing for completeness instead of trying to survive.
Half the Sky, for future reference, when you come back to the thread like that you aren't supposed to answer questions. You're getting lynched there no matter what, don't answer questions and give last reads. A list post, or something. There wasn't really any doubt about your alignment, but just so you know for the future.
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Roleblocker flip is also a big deal
Unfortunately, I don't think it can buy is a mislynch, but in this game a no-lynch would still be really good. Assuming we're allowed to no lynch.
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On December 06 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
on mobile
as if there were ever any doubt. honestly anything HTS did day 2 is basically WIFOM, so whatever drivel she had the last 30 minutes really doesn't mean dick all.
Well except her update outside the game of course. <3
LS, of course she would post Talisker like that. she loves Talisker. she will drink that and/or Glenfiddich when she rolls mafia.
I don't know what the baby seal is for though.
anyways, my personal motivation in finding the last two mafia though is to make sure they don't keep drinking whisky via mislynches, because she would have asked them to do that. why? because it's HTS.
I have too many scumleans/reads so I know I have a bit to sort out when I return. probably going to proceed in terms of what teams make sense with hts and some additional filter checks. scum
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EPT
