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On December 07 2015 22:31 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels
Damdred was going back and forth, finding reasons for both rationales of town and mafia Trfel.
I think Trfel is the right vote today, but if you're that suspicious of Fidei aside from the reasons I looked into him, what were your other arguments?
I really need to stop with the meta/tone reads, but this really feels like town Rels to me. Mafia Rels is tryhard Rels. Obviously lynching me because Palmar was struggling with my alignment and because I went afk is a pretty ehh reason to lynch me (especially as I was right from the start on HTS), so it sort of seems like he is dis-interested town more than anything.
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On December 07 2015 23:27 NocturneMage wrote:
also disformation re 1855 - Palmar I think said that LS's end of cycle 1 message about him being VT pretty much exonerated him. see the posts where I queued up both Damdred and Palmar's reads to aggregate where they both stood before they died and as they played.
right now, it's possible LS could be scum but based on the NKs I'm going to put him and DYH aside at this time, as scum and having been scum, you want to really eliminate the biggest threats. the only way this wouldn't apply is if you were universally townread, but that doesn't seem to be the case for any of my scumreads, so....
unless someone wants to make a non-meta based case on Fidei, the only point really sticking out at me is the soft pushing d1, and no offence James, but you know Dani and I well enough, if you DIDN'T sheep me I would have called you out on it, and if I recall right at no point in the game did you scumread me despite calling out my tone for being a "Jack Russell on meth" (lol?). So I really think that is not alignment indicative, you'd do it as town and you'd HAVE to do it as mafia.
Alex, some points in response.
I accept that Mafia can soft other Mafia. i suppose you have to think about whether it's more likely that Mafia James throws Dani into the scope earlier, or whether it's just town James with a good guy read on Dani.
I can see that you would think I'd have to get on Dani once you were on her, regardless of alignment. But I was already on her. My read flows naturally. You might absolutely say that it's a coincidence that (1) I was right on her from the start and that (2) you came in, as town, and pinged her out for basically the same thing I did, forcing me to agree with you. But eh. I think if I was Mafia with Dani we'd try and end game you fools with both of us alive. Dani is a really good player who, if Moosy hadn't replaced out, might never have got lynched. If anything, I'd be encouraging her to start softing me. In fact, she hard town read me all the way through.
Re your alignment, I really think there's a decent chance that you're Mafia. In my head this goes along the lines of Dani saying "I can't face the game any more, and people are already on to me, so this works best if you thread enter and hard bus me." I know you are married, but being as sure as you were about someone's alignment just seems really out of kilter with your previous play.
But obv there is a bunch of reading for me to do before I give a final read.
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Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time).
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On December 08 2015 00:54 Rels wrote:
OK this is hard so here is what going to happen.
DYH, NM: You earned a confirmed town status today due to you being the first pushers of the HTS train.
Lynch another mafia and that status will probably extend to the end of the game.
??? I like that you've missed me off this list Rels.
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Saying "I will vote for X but I'd rather vote for Y" is exactly what I said in Newbie Mafia XIV on d1, when we shenaniganed onto Mafia GB. Alex might remember that.
Not that it really proves anything, I suppose.
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On December 08 2015 04:28 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 04:14 disformation wrote:On December 08 2015 04:12 NocturneMage wrote:
evaluating Fidei that is. And here I thought you were planning on eating him, too. + Show Spoiler + We eating Dota players apparantly if he does try to eat James lol.... Anyways I still scratching my head on Palmar's NK. Like I don't a lot of people were townreading him(I was right on him at least). It would implicate someone who knows Palmar or Palmar was right on someone and they panic kill him(prob the later since I think I the only one who really have a lot of experience playing with him.
During the last big dota tournament a group of casters played a lot of in person Mafia. One thing they always did was revert to talking about NKs. But particularly, talking about NKs in generality, with no particular aim in mind.
Nearly home. Will commence operation catch up once dinner is on.
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They being the scum players.
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On December 08 2015 03:46 disformation wrote:NSM12 up to day 2: very similar to this. Starting D2 he starts to show a bit of life in his posts when talking with/to HtS and his scum reads. NSM14 he also sounds very similar to here... well besides this thing: Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 09:05 Fidei86 wrote:On September 08 2015 08:58 MoosyDoosy wrote:
eh. i still think it's copcake + fidei with someone else but i might be getting too tunneled. fidei comes off looking worse from this. BEFORE I GO TO BED I WANT TO POINT OUT IN ALL CAPITALS THAT MOOSY HAS NEITHER OF THE CLAIMED F****** DOCTORS IN HIS F****** SCUM LIST. LIKE IT MIGHT NOT BE EITHER OF THEM? Are you kidding me with this shit? But playing with cupcake can be rather rage inducing. So I understand. But the overwhelming amount of posts sounds like this game. So I guess that is just his default tone and dub him Mr. Roboto. Will look at his filter from this game more closely now.
It wasn't Cake, it was Moosy. I should have lynched that MFer.
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:-\
Anyway, now catching up. Feel free to post any questions in the thread.
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On December 07 2015 09:26 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 09:10 NocturneMage wrote:
wait, disformation second half of your last post I think you are completely misunderstanding.
first quote - that was nothing to do with the game - that was real life. he wasn't trying to get a read on me I don't think he was just trying to see if hts was being manipulative with rl, the answer is no (even if she flipped scum, that is just hts being hts honestly I cited examples of her doing this as town too) and aside that there were other reasons to scumread her
second quote, it was a misunderstanding. I was pinging trfel but my response came right after fidei's quote so fidei just assumed I was talking to him. but I think I can see why you came to that conclusion with those two sentences in the last quote. Ah, damn. Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification.  Also for what it is worth, have some coloured votes: (went ahead and coloured myself green :p)
Day 1 Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, PalmLightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu
Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformationNocturneMage (1): Half the Sky
So to get information from this vote cycle I will try and look at the reasons/timings for voting HtS and try to see if there are plausible bus drivers. As I outlined yesterday DYH could have been such a busdriver, but I will look at the other suspects, too.
Disinformation, did you ever explain why you were on DYH rather than HTS?
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On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote:Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter.
Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to: Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Town
Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null
Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy?
N1 he also moves back to HtS... Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that. Bold part for smiles. After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier.
His probing of NM seems town.
Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 23:43 Fidei86 wrote:
I am utterly convinced that LS is Mafia. I am willing to accept that Dani is Mafia, although if she flips town we lynch Alex (possibly before LS).
But I will have time this weekend to read some of the outliers (dis might lynch me if I don't at least read DYH again). Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 00:20 Fidei86 wrote:
So LS, your scum team is me, DYH and Dani. Except scumming DYH is easy because he has been a low volume poster, scumming Dani is easy because Alex, and scumming me is easy because of OMGUS? All of your reasons for town reading people are "they are towny", or a call back to a past game.
This is a really poorly thought through list that shows no conviction and no intention to solve. LS is Mafia. Does he vote LS? + Show Spoiler +
Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 00:25 Fidei86 wrote:On December 05 2015 00:23 LightningStrike wrote:
BTW James you should check my read progression of DYH? I will. I'll also read DYH's filter this evening. Work is slow today, so I've been able to play a lot of Mafia, but it's all phone posting. Still waiting.
Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote:
Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time). Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now.
So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though. Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far? So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate.
Eh, I'm not going to stand here and say that my play this game has been optimal. Plainly it hasn't been. I haven't been as active as I could have been, and I accidentally basically got our blue lynched D1.
There's one thing that screams out to me from your post. You accuse me of not voting for LS, after I post that I'm sure he's mafia. D1 I got cold feet. It was a mistake. Lots of people in the thread were talking about switching, and LS was here at least fighting his corner, while kush was AFK. It was a total spur of the moment decision, and it was wrong.
DAY 2, WE WERE LYNCHING HTS. WHO FLIPPED F'ING SCUM. AND I GAVE VERY CLEAR REASONS WHY I WOULD NEVER MOVE OFF HER. WHY WOULD I VOTE FOR SOMEONE ELSE?
Ugh. Like, your other reasons for scumming me are fine, but that one is so bogus, it makes my eyes water. On p77/83.
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On December 07 2015 22:53 disformation wrote:Hmm... yeah I think I remember you calling out HtS on D1. But here you are "only" slightly suspicious... and what is a little scum lean between good partners?  Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 21:45 Fidei86 wrote:
@Rels
I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there.
At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it.
She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining.
I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance.
None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. Still want to look at your whole filter and progression on HtS later tonight. The thing is: someone had to bus her. From my POV two someones have bussed HtS and I am going to find out who.
Disfo I think you fundamentally misunderstand what bussing is. Bussing is where one mafia player actively works to get HTS lynched. The only people who really worked on the HTS lynch actively were NM, DYH and me. Oh and Palmar, but he's flipped town. If any of us were mafia, that would be a bus. The fact is that it was plainly obvious that she was going to get lynched once Alex, Palmar and I basically decided it. Lots of the rest of you voted for her, but just voting for a scum is not the same as bussing. Your logic is just totally wrong here.
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On December 08 2015 06:11 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels to answer your question on LS - I have read from the point of my main exchange with him, pges 7-9 of his filter can be summarised
(1) inflating the filter with useless comments (not even part of alignment determining conversation or even afk comments)
(2) parroting (examples post 1635)
(3) 1450 to 1478 is an example of asking for information and not really doing anything of it
This is insane for me. The NKs exonerate LS, but at the same time it is mindboggling this guy is doing dick all and people are ignoring him.
His filter is 1000% mafia. Something isn't right.
NK WIFOM is super dangerous.
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On December 08 2015 06:35 NocturneMage wrote:James - LS read evolvement Part 1 Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 09:01 Fidei86 wrote:
So that people know, the people in the game I know best are Half the Sky and Rels. I've been town with both, supervised both when I GMed and was Mafia with Rels once. I also have played with a lot of the rest of you before, including Moosy, Lightning Strike, Onegu and Damdred. I don't know DYH, trfel, dis, Kush or Palmar very well. first post - important for context. Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 18:42 Fidei86 wrote:
Lightning Strike's entrance seems way over the top to me, especially for him. Usually he comes in and posts some relatively anodyne 1-liners, whereas here he came in with a big long paragraph attacking someone (Trfel I think) for calling him out earlier. In my experience, town LS is much more relaxed and jokey, until he starts getting attacked seriously (which I don't think had happened by that point). Then again, LS is primo lynch-bait D1, so I'll try and avoid getting too tunnelled for now. tone read indicates mafia. is hesistant because he might be misread a bit. Below is part of the list post - edited for brevity Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised. A side note and a few critical questions to ask about James. I think this is what Rels was talking about. No problem with opting to policy lynch, although from my context (see first post where Fidei says he has played with Moosy) and experience (in my last newbie Moosy martyred and almost got lynched as vigilante) and when I obsed Newbie 12, (town) HTS pushed him in that game and he almost got himself lynched but then she turned around, caught a scumslip and ultimately saved Moosy, who was town. In Newbie 13, where I was mafia, he set himself up poorly day 1, and then he got modkilled. The potential issue I have here is whether we should hold an expectation that James should have KNOWN that Moosy plays like this. You can argue him wanting to lynch Moosy is a copout based on his own admitted experience with Moosy and whether he should have known how Moosy plays. From my own memory, I think James was in Newbie 12, I obsed it. I know we had 14 together, but Moosy was mafia, and swindled us all. I don't think James was in 13, where Moosy was town and I was mafia, and I don't think he was in 17. IDK. Potential scum motivation if and only if the expectation holds that he should have known Moosy better. Disclaimer: I have not researched appropriate evidence in the database. Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:17 Fidei86 wrote:
Like I'd vote LS over most of the rest of the players - but Moosy is a disgrace this game, and if he doesn't take this game seriously we shouldn't take him seriously. So so far, a clear scum push on LS, with the Moosy read v expectation caveat. That was through end of cycle 1.
Yes I did play 12. In that game, Moosy was 'useless' through D1, but he gave some hints that he was attempting some sort of Chezinu-type play. You're completely right - HTS caught one of the scum, and from that we cleaned up the remainder pretty easily.
Yes, in 14 he did end-game me. He played very well.
But looking through his game here, I don't think me makes a single sensible point throughout his entire filter. In my view, he was trying to protect his 'meta' - ie to play so indifferently that he couldn't start to develop a consistent meta. That, or he was trying a Chez type thing again. *shrug*. I read him as I saw him in this game.
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I just had a look through LS's filter in this game (took me about 5 mins ... there is so little content in there) and his filter in Himalayas, where he was town.
I am disappointed to conclude that LS's style here is not that dissimilar from his Himalayas game. There he posted lots of pointless one line posts, unfollowed-up questions and weak meta reads.
BUT
I don't think we can, in good faith, not lynch LightningStrike today. I challenge anyone to go through his filter and find one nuanced or interesting though. One. His reads, as far as I can tell, are so bland that they are all almost exactly the same (ie "he sounds towny" or "he sounds like he did when he was town last game"). He is literally a coin-flip. He has done nothing to suggest he is town or to help town find mafia. He was somewhat unsure on HTS, but it's difficult to distinguish from general apathy (and he ended up voting for her anyway).
Ugh. Does anyone think that there is any realistic choice of LS being NKd? There isn't, as far as I can see. And if we don't lynch him, he WILL be in lylo and, if he *is* town, we're screwed. If I'm in LYLO with him and any of you, that other person just has to point out LS's total lack of read progression, his constant questions that lead nowhere, his repeated questions as to who is about, and I would lynch him.
Yes, it's partially a policy lynch. But his play is just cruising through the game without ever having to lie or really get pressured at all. And that's very scummy. It's objectively scummy. If we give him a pass because everyone's like "oh, he's always bad" then more fool us if he gets through here.
Also I'm not sure enough on any of my other reads to push them now. :-/
THAT SAID
I will now try and wade through disfo's filter.
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is tl constantly crashing for anyone else? ugh
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I'm not convinced by his read progression towards EOD1. He is on kushmasta, then comes off him "because he starts to do stuff". He then sheeps Damdred onto LS, without giving much reasoning and crucially while asking Damdred pointed questions about his own progression.
BUT I think it makes more sense for a scum!disfo to stick on kushmasta. The dude was super easy lynchbait, and he couldn't have been criticised for sticking on him.
He says twice in D1 that the game is hard (one is at #731). I find this ... eh. Slightly scum indicative, but only from a sophisticated player (ie trying to make the game feel harder for townies, to try and de-motivate them). For a newer player, it's probably NAI.
His post at #802 is a really good catch - DYH's town read on disfo came out of nowhere.
At #932 he pings out Dani, based on his experience with her before. It wasn't a super original point at the time, but I give him townie points for it.
I read the rest of it, and nothing really jumped out. He has hedged all of his reads on me and Trfel, and a lot of his filter is more of a dialogue with the game than lots of cases and reads. When I posted earlier that I thought he might be scum, it was because it seemed a little bit like he was skating through and appearing busy, without actually being busy. But having reviewed the filter at length, I see enough townie things that I don't think I can scum read him for now.
DYH then bed.
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(the above post is on disfo)
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DoYouHas
#185 - saying he has the "mind meld" with Damdred "for now". This qualifier is strange to me. It's almost like a town read that is given, then instantly withdrawn.
#255 He talks alot about Palmar's push on TS. But his TS read here is the same as mine (well, in a way. I said that it was townie because he tried to stop it, whereas DYH focusses on him being provoked to come back in).
#462 He read four filters, and came away with nothing at all? I mean, he could have at least noted that LS's filter was rubbish?
At the D1 lynch, he said that he sheeped his town reads because he had dropped Trfel. His post at #642 is actually pretty towny. He exhonerates Trfel after wondering why scum!Trfel would vote for him.
I find that his admitting that he was just sheeping his town reads to be pretty towny. HOWEVER, I note that his town read of disfo DOES seem to come out of nowhere. Like, literally, it just appears with no explanation, and is used to justify a vote.
His correct read on HTS gives him town points (#885 and #1023). Plainly the bussing is possible. I accept that. But this is very early on in the day, with no super-obvious benefit. Yes, NM had jumped in saying he was sure HTS was scum. But unless DYH knew the NM/HTS relationship the way that others of us did, I don't think he would have necessarily assumed that we were all going to follow NM.
ALthough, that said, if HTS engineered a bus in anticipation of leaving the game, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that this was part of it. Occams razor suggests not though.
#1402 posts a recap of Damdred's reads (hardly *that* helpful).
#1570 His read here is actually pretty insightful. It relies upon POE a little bit, but also looking at her read of disfo is pretty smart.
CONCLUSION
Yes, his filter is two pages. Obviously that's sub-optimal. But I don't see any particular reason to scum-read DYH, and I actually see a fair number of reasons to town read him. So I will.
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Right. Quick game of dota then bed. Will catch up in the am.
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EPT
