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TL Mafia LXXII: Gaiden 2 - Page 127

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Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
August 30 2015 14:20 GMT
#2521
That logix on my wagon is so good and comes to the correct conclusion. Plz dont be mafia trfel
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
August 30 2015 14:48 GMT
#2522
Moosy? Why do you ask if anyone's around and then you just don't talk?

The post from VE that hopeless brought up needs an answer from Trfel, I can't find any looking through his filter.

And what WoS mentioned isn't entirely correct, but partially. Kelsier posted a case of his own of which the part about WoS reasons to go after JAT coincided with what CC said in his own case, but the points about WoS way of handling moosy are only mentioned by Kelsier as far as I see.

+ Show Spoiler +

On August 27 2015 04:53 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2015 00:55 WaveofShadow wrote:
On August 27 2015 00:11 WaveofShadow wrote:
Catching up.
Frigging euro dominated game

##unvote
Should have just said marv/Palmar dominated game.
Which is fine I suppose since they're both extremely likely to be town at this point.

Let's see.
Welcome back CC.
First thoughts are that he's town because I remember him posting similarly to this in a couple of towngames we played together, that being said there is ONE old-as-hell scumgame of his I want to look back at (where he ragequit eventually 'cause his team was shitty or something?) because what someone (marv?) said about him being more coherent as scum could be true but I truly don't remember. 2-year-old meta meh anyway but I have re-embraced the use of meta recently to decent effect so we'll see. Tentative townread for the moment.

Rsoul extremely likely to be town from interactions.

Scummiest people stand out to me as JAT because the last time I remember Palmar going like this on anyone, it was on me when I was scum when nobody else ever catches me.
Moosy because pocketing efforts when I am the only one in this game he knows to be 'good.'
I say 'good' because I have been SUPER on point in the last whole bunch of games I've played (as both alignments for once) and Moosy correctly realizes that I could be a threat based on that.

Which brings me to
On August 26 2015 23:14 marvellosity wrote:
On August 26 2015 23:13 Palmar wrote:
Wave is a shitty has-been player anyway

can't be a has-been if you're a never-was

^ wow, what a bitch

Fucking brutal guys.
Is all of that really necessary?

I actually have gained some confidence in my play for once and I refuse to let it be crushed by the likes of you. Unfortunately the fact that I'm not here means if either of the aforementioned are scum I won't have contributed at all to their lynches which is super bleh.

##vote: JAT


This post makes Wave scum. Specifically, the text in bold. Wave comes back to the thread to see the popular scum-candidate JAT sitting on a wagon driven by Palmar. His read takes no consideration for JAT's actions this game. In fact, he says he respects Palmar's play enough on day 1 to sheep him without regard.

Wave claims that he has gained some confidence in his play. If wave truly has gained confidence in his play (I.E. reads), then why is he letting Palmar, who may very well be mafia or just plain wrong about JAT, decide the lynch for him? Wave is blindly assuming that Palmar is town and correct without A) Assessing the lynch candidates motivations / actions and B) Looking at Palmar's push in and of itself. He doesn't even quote a post by Palmar and agree with the reasons.

##Vote: Wave

Show nested quote +
On August 27 2015 01:03 WaveofShadow wrote:
On August 27 2015 01:01 justanothertownie wrote:
Ok, Wave is voting me because Palmar caught HIM as mafia in the past. Makes a huge post and talks about everything but me except for this statement. This might be the first mafia joining the push.

You're sweet.
I'm way better at scum than to blindly sheep.

I've only ever been officially caught ONCE as scum and it was by Palmar, therefore I afford him a measure of respect on his D1 bullshit, enough to sheep him on what appears to be a fairly decent read.


JAT hits the nail on the head here. Wave's defense against this is basically "I'm better than this", which I find lazy. Regardless, Wave still fails to situate why he thinks Palmar's case is good.

Show nested quote +
On August 27 2015 01:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
I don't really have much to say about that specifically.
Palmar and marv have a super special bromance together that I can't explain accurately in any real detail. The way it seems to me is that Palmar tosses out reads super early just 'cause, some of which may be accurate and some of which might not be but he sticks with them and forces them if necessary, and re-evaluates in secret. In the scumgame where he caught me even though he forced his read on me all game he was actually constantly re-evaluating based on what was going on in game as was evidenced by his posting.

For a read on marv if I had to guess it's easier to assume he's town (even based on very little/nothing) and take it back later on if he just so happens to be wrong, but all of the posting they have done has in all likelihood shown that he is right.

As for how this relates to Trfel/rsoul.....dunno.


When Wave extrapolates upon how Palmar plays, he admits that Palmar's early reads are 'just 'cause' and may/may not be accurate.

How can Wave seriously think JAT is his top scumread / top vote for the day if he: 1) Has not evaluated JAT's actions, or explained why Palmar's case is good 2) Knows that Palmar's early reads are often 'just cause' 3) Is not sure of Palmar's alignment? It makes no sense to me. Palmar may have caught Wave as scum day 1 in another game and he respects him, but this course of action is scummy regardless of how you package it. It's incredibly convenient if JAT flips town, and then Wave can take no responsibility for the lynch.

All I want you to answer @WaveofShadow:

Why is Palmar's case good. Not Rsoultin's, or anyone else's, but Palmar's case. What does Palmar say that is convincing and makes the case against JAT generate a "fairly decent read"?


On August 27 2015 21:20 KelsierSC wrote:
Scum

Wave - This comes down to a few points. One is his reentry to the thread saying oh yeh
JAT is mafia but I can't get a further read because palmar is pushing him, it feels like
trying to absolve himself of rseponsibility if the lynch is bad.

The second point is how he tries to point out that moosy is pocketing him.

Show nested quote +
Moosy because pocketing efforts when I am the only one in this game he knows to be 'good.'
I say 'good' because I have been SUPER on point in the last whole bunch of games I've played (as both alignments for once) and Moosy correctly realizes that I could be a threat based on that.


he then wants to get moosy's thoughts and responds thusly.

Show nested quote +
On August 27 2015 01:18 WaveofShadow wrote:
I am interested in Moosy's thoughts now that I have arrived.


Show nested quote +
On August 27 2015 02:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
Like MAYBE I can see Moosy giving lynch wagon credit to rsoul.
Maybe.
But me?

And since I've come back Moosy has asked me a few random questions that just seem really disjointed---like i don't get the feeling of why he needed me to come back in the first place so urgently.


ok what did he make of all of moosy's actions?

Show nested quote +
On August 27 2015 07:46 WaveofShadow wrote:
On August 27 2015 07:43 KelsierSC wrote:
wave what did you get from moosy, you said you wanted thoughts from him.

I'll give proper thoughts later but as I recall he hasn't done that much since I asked, has he?


which is not true at all, Moosy had posted like a whole other page of stuff including changing his vote and giving a list
of reads, feel like wave should be more invested than that.

overall it just feels like he is happy to lynch JAT without commital whilst throwing suspicion at moosy.


Right now I'm at a CC/Trfel/Kelsier/Palmar scum team based on their actions, the NKs and PoE. The NKs mostly make sense with a CC/Trfel/Kels scum team, but Palmar can also be mafia and the recent change of opinion on him by CC is explainable if they're a team, that's why I need an answer on that. Either that or CC changed opinion cause his read on Palmar not fleshing out before is part of the accusations. These are the people I'd lynch today with exception of Palmar, I actually hope he's town.

VE and marv I'm mostly keeping on ice since I hope they likely will be proven to be mafia by not being killed in the future.Right now it's 8 to 3 so we got (tomorrow 6-3, the day after 4-3) 2 mislynches left until it's lylo.

Moosy is also in my blind corner for now. I'll bother diving him later, derpy plays and strange behaviour yeah, but not sure if that makes him mafia.

JAT gets a tentative townread for filter size but will have to re-evaluate if he stays alive. One thing that makes me paranoid here is that earlier in the game he tended to say I'm scum for his own reasons and now he mostly relies on what rsoultin said after Trfel asked him. So I'm curious to see how he would act if I ever were up for lynch, that justification sort of read like an excuse to not bother even though he should have an opinion.

Hopeless and decon....meh. Hopeless is actually playing the game and even bringing up interesting things, ima go with a "let's see what happens" and a tentative town read. For decon I'll have to trust marv's check for the time being. If he's a GF we might lose the game, so I'll certainly try to judge him by his play if he stays alive for too long or we don't get to lynch a GF until then.

That's where my head is at atm.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
August 30 2015 14:51 GMT
#2523
Although on second thought I'm not sure if it makes sense for Kelsier and CC to be scum together, the way they attacked WoS together and today's turnaround. Like, Kelsier is one of the few who for some reason doesn't wanna lynch CC and CC calls him out on it. That's not exactly the way for scumbuddies to go unnoticed.

I think I'm wrong on someone here.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 30 2015 15:02 GMT
#2524
tbh I don't think Kels is Mafia. He has been very aggressive, but I don't know if you've been able to read it because it hasn't been directed at you. I'll have to take a look at this recent scum games and see exactly in which game he's "stepped it up" but I have a pretty solid townie tone read on him.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
August 30 2015 15:03 GMT
#2525
On August 31 2015 00:02 MoosyDoosy wrote:
tbh I don't think Kels is Mafia. He has been very aggressive, but I don't know if you've been able to read it because it hasn't been directed at you. I'll have to take a look at this recent scum games and see exactly in which game he's "stepped it up" but I have a pretty solid townie tone read on him.


Can you tell me where you got from that I'm hard to read? I'm actually pretty easy to read.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 30 2015 15:04 GMT
#2526
He’s like Tictock in my last Newbie Student game. Really bad reads (i.e. me and Wave) as he focuses on things that can be explained away, but the manner in which he does things shows that he is actually town.

…This is also how I’ve been reading you as town Vivax btw.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 30 2015 15:07 GMT
#2527
On August 31 2015 00:03 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2015 00:02 MoosyDoosy wrote:
tbh I don't think Kels is Mafia. He has been very aggressive, but I don't know if you've been able to read it because it hasn't been directed at you. I'll have to take a look at this recent scum games and see exactly in which game he's "stepped it up" but I have a pretty solid townie tone read on him.


Can you tell me where you got from that I'm hard to read? I'm actually pretty easy to read.

I use tone reads mainly. It's because of this that I read you as town. However, tone reads aren't exactly the most reliable and I don't have a meta read on you to fall back on which is why I'm saying it's difficult to read you. Because this is our first game together.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
August 30 2015 15:13 GMT
#2528
So your scumreads since your post full of nulls are hopeless/CC and? There's three mafia left and on top of it you don't seem terribly interested into what hopeless posted on the last page. Would like you to be more active if you don't mind.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 30 2015 15:25 GMT
#2529
I think that there is mafia between trfel/hopeless/cc
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
August 30 2015 15:56 GMT
#2530
6hrs to deadline and only a handfull of people are actually playing this game. Vivax still stuck on the palmar thing ><

If i dont make it to deadline my legacy is lynch Kels and Palmar. I want to read trfel town so badly because of his analysis on my wagon, but it could just be mafia that knows im town.

As far as i know palmar hasnt done a single thing today and should be lynched for it. Palmar could easily be with kels or even hopeless b.c. his vote was a throwaway at end of day.

The next blueclaim will likely have to solve the game for us.

But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
August 30 2015 16:02 GMT
#2531
Such passivity this lynch is obviously on town -.-

The upside to this is I can call marv bad postgame
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
August 30 2015 16:02 GMT
#2532
Is Palmar's inactivity the reason you went from unsure to mafia?

Cause being inactive on weekends is perfectly normal for him. Not sure if he mentioned this, but in case you didn't know, I told you.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 30 2015 16:04 GMT
#2533
Or the mafia members are inactive throughout the weekend as well and are not around to interfere with the lynch on their fellow scum mate. We will see Mr. CC.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
August 30 2015 16:05 GMT
#2534
This is why I don't want to play this game... I spend two and a half hours diving filters and researching people, and I arrive at some (apparently) controversial conclusions that have significant claims with regards to the lynch in less than six hours, and I get basically completely ignored.

I'd at least appreciate it if everyone yelled at me and called me a moron. Seriously, either vote for Vivax instead of Mr. Cheesecake, or tell me why I am wrong.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
August 30 2015 16:08 GMT
#2535
I also have a hard time seeing you agree with Trfel's logic based on wagon analysis and at the same time accepting that this implicates deconduo as being disinterested, or me. I've been pushing for your lynch as well and while I'm interested and Kelsier is disinterested, you assumed us both to be mafia AND found Trfel's logic compelling when it went against your reads.

Everyone besides I think Trfel, Kelsier and decon has shown interest into lynching you so if you agree with Trfel's logic, shouldn't you also be agreeing on these people being likely mafia?

If you are town it also is a generally stupid assumption to make that mafia isn't interested in lynching you.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
August 30 2015 16:09 GMT
#2536
Trfel you know I'm lynching you first if CC flips mafia?
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 30 2015 16:10 GMT
#2537
Vivax why did you drop your suspicion on Trfel earlier?
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
August 30 2015 16:13 GMT
#2538
Mafia arent interested in lynching me because town (marv) has already made up his mind.

And i never agreed with all of trfels logic. I agreed mainly with that scum are just sitting back and letting the lynch happen without proposing alternate candidates.
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
August 30 2015 16:14 GMT
#2539
Palmars only contribution to the game state is calling jat mafia and then antagonizing the thread needlessly.
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
Mr. Cheesecake
Profile Joined October 2012
United States3756 Posts
August 30 2015 16:15 GMT
#2540
Palmar clearly doesnt care about who gets lynched. Just look at yesterday.
But CC isn't protown as town. 100% real heuristic.
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