On June 20 2015 03:35 WaveofShadow wrote: Ok actually, switching back to Damdred because I'm not going to be around for deadline in all likelihood, so if for some reason the entire thread changes their minds you can vote with me :D ##unvote ##Vote: Damdred
I guess a lot of our difference in opinion on Damdred is because in my last few games with Damdred, I've always scumread him and I've always been wrong. While Damdred is certainly capable of being an incredible town leader, he doesn't always play to his capabilities.
Although town!Damdred is capable of playing better than he has in this game, his play reminds me of his town play, only there is less of it. And there are several smaller indicators that he is town, particularly his Day 2 voting.
On June 20 2015 03:35 WaveofShadow wrote: Ok actually, switching back to Damdred because I'm not going to be around for deadline in all likelihood, so if for some reason the entire thread changes their minds you can vote with me :D ##unvote ##Vote: Damdred
I guess a lot of our difference in opinion on Damdred is because in my last few games with Damdred, I've always scumread him and I've always been wrong. While Damdred is certainly capable of being an incredible town leader, he doesn't always play to his capabilities.
Although town!Damdred is capable of playing better than he has in this game, his play reminds me of his town play, only there is less of it. And there are several smaller indicators that he is town, particularly his Day 2 voting.
VOTING ASIDE, because it's all most people seem to look at in this game (holy shit i sound like Oats. probably IS town) Why is Damdred town? What have you seen from him that makes him look like town Damdred? Why have your past scumreads on him been wrong?
Give me something here.
My past scumreads have been wrong because I've expected Damdred to always play like he does in his best moments. Damdred is certainly a good player, but he doesn't always play to the very high level that he's capable of. (not to pick on Damdred, I'm rarely able to play to my best...)
Damdred and I have turned our last few games together into a yelling match, which is one of the main reasons I attributed to town losing those games. If Damdred were scum here, I would expect him to do the same, as it would be an easy way to sidetrack the thread and there's minimal risk for Damdred. Instead, he does this:
On June 14 2015 04:43 Damdred wrote: I'm trying something new here, I'm not going to,give top town trel a hard time about being not sure about me. Instead I'll try to work with and sheep today.
This plan is great
Which I don't really see coming from mafia!Damdred.
When Damdred is here, he seems to be willing to lead the thread.
On June 20 2015 04:13 ruXxar wrote: Due to the way that sulfur tried to make an attack on oats. Scott also tried to push hard on oats.
Could be a bus on oats, but I doubt it.
If you go back and look sulfur made that case against oats when the train was still on kickstarter. It makes me think it was an honest attempt to get oats lynched because he was an easy target.
However that doesn't make sense either, because why wouldnt sulfur just jump on the kick train? I don't know, but that's my thoughts about the situation.
On June 16 2015 15:32 Sulfurus wrote: K I just realized that Oats is scummy.
I looked through his filter and minus the fluff it's just him asking questions (interspersed with attempts to discredit towny posts)
Now I'm sure n00b would be quick to remind me that asking questions is actually towny as it provides valuable scum hunting information But even if Oats has gotten anything from his posts he hasn't actually provided any of it to the thread in fact it's likely that his questions are helping mafia more then town.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
Here is Sulfurus' first mention of Oatsmaster.
At this time, the vote count was Sulfurus (3): Kickstart, Damdred, WaveofShadow Kickstart (3): Rels, ruXxar, Trfel ruXxar (1): batsnacks
The people who were not voting were MoosyDoosy, Oatsmaster, scott31337, and of course Sulfurus.
At this point, you're right, it was not obvious that Sulfurus was going to be lynched. But with this much time left, why doesn't Sulfurus move his vote to Oatsmaster? Sulfurus didn't seriously push Oatsmaster, and he wasn't widely townread, so his scumread of Oatsmaster didn't really change the suspicion on Oatsmaster.
Sulfurus made sure to come back before the deadline and change his vote to Kickstart. At this time he scumread Oatsmaster more aggressively, but by now he was guaranteed to be lynched.
That's really frustrating. I thought he was mafia for sure.
Oatsmaster is probably mafia. The last mafia is probably ruXxar, or maybe even Damdred, as I expect Damdred would be the best at fooling me. He just doesn't feel like mafia, though...
I guess I just need to go back to the drawing board.
8 players left, so 6 town and 2 mafia. There will be 5 town and 2 mafia after the night, and 3 town and 2 mafia if we mislynch again.
That gives us one more mislynch before LYLO. So if we can get down to three suspects, we should be okay.
I sort of feel like mafia is most likely between Rels, ruXxar, and Oatsmaster, though.
Batsnacks, I would appreciate some reasons why you are suspicious of Damdred and WaveofShadow other than POE. How does their play follow mafia motivations?
8 players left, so 6 town and 2 mafia. There will be 5 town and 2 mafia after the night, and 3 town and 2 mafia if we mislynch again.
That gives us one more mislynch before LYLO. So if we can get down to three suspects, we should be okay.
I sort of feel like mafia is most likely between Rels, ruXxar, and Oatsmaster, though.
Batsnacks, I would appreciate some reasons why you are suspicious of Damdred and WaveofShadow other than POE. How does their play follow mafia motivations?
Here's the thing about that. Bats has been pretty wrong despite taking very strong stances twice now which on its own is pretty meh, but now the fact that he's continuing on with his apparent PoE scumread of me, nevermind Damdred despite the method being obviously faulty in the first place? Something's up.
As far as your townread of Damdred I am definitely not sold on that. Reasons to afk aside, the times where he has been here he has been extremely content to take a backseat, rather than what you say about him leading.
On June 20 2015 03:35 WaveofShadow wrote: Ok actually, switching back to Damdred because I'm not going to be around for deadline in all likelihood, so if for some reason the entire thread changes their minds you can vote with me :D ##unvote ##Vote: Damdred
I guess a lot of our difference in opinion on Damdred is because in my last few games with Damdred, I've always scumread him and I've always been wrong. While Damdred is certainly capable of being an incredible town leader, he doesn't always play to his capabilities.
Although town!Damdred is capable of playing better than he has in this game, his play reminds me of his town play, only there is less of it. And there are several smaller indicators that he is town, particularly his Day 2 voting.
VOTING ASIDE, because it's all most people seem to look at in this game (holy shit i sound like Oats. probably IS town) Why is Damdred town? What have you seen from him that makes him look like town Damdred? Why have your past scumreads on him been wrong?
Give me something here.
My past scumreads have been wrong because I've expected Damdred to always play like he does in his best moments. Damdred is certainly a good player, but he doesn't always play to the very high level that he's capable of. (not to pick on Damdred, I'm rarely able to play to my best...)
Damdred and I have turned our last few games together into a yelling match, which is one of the main reasons I attributed to town losing those games. If Damdred were scum here, I would expect him to do the same, as it would be an easy way to sidetrack the thread and there's minimal risk for Damdred. Instead, he does this:
On June 14 2015 04:43 Damdred wrote: I'm trying something new here, I'm not going to,give top town trel a hard time about being not sure about me. Instead I'll try to work with and sheep today.
This plan is great
Which I don't really see coming from mafia!Damdred.
When Damdred is here, he seems to be willing to lead the thread.
Your bolded point is mostly meta-based, where you assume mafia Damdred will act a certain way even though meta is fairly easy to change in a case like this, and when you say starting a shit fight is at no risk to him when you're top town? Not really seeing how that's the case either.
I guess I don't really know what to expect from town!batsnacks. This is the first game I've seen batsnacks being this active and focused on serious reads.
And I wasn't always townread when Damdred had the ability to fight me. The past few games, I've always ended up looking worse for arguing with Damdred. While it's a meta read, and it's a meta read that is easily changed, it's not worth it for mafia!Damdred to do this and hoping that I comment on it, it's better for him to cause a huge argument and derail the thread.
On June 20 2015 09:30 batsnacks wrote: I pasted 100% of my thought process regarding my POE. I even did a kind thing and cut and pasted it all into one convenient post with bullet points.
Rather than "hey bats do you have anything else?" or "bats your POE sucks please completely change all of your opinions and perspectives because I don't like them" or "bats is unreachable, I will just ignore him"
why not respond to anything I said with reason?
Yeah and since nothing has changed at all in your PoE even though you were clearly wrong on Scott, what I responded with originally still stands:
Yeah I've read your 'sulf did this, so town' posts and I'm not particularly enamored of them. I will admit I'm usually not great at reading newbies here so maybe that's why I don't feel like looking into his motivations will yield good results, but to assume that every time Sulf defended someone it makes them town seems a little suspect since there are other cases sulf didn't even comment on due to low activity.
I did not say that every time sulf defended someone it makes them town. I would take your responses more seriously if you were responding to things I actually said instead of making huge, sweeping, wrong generalizations about what I said. I said trfel is likely not mafia because sulfur defended rux and rels from him d1 and I said that oats is likely not mafia because sulfur scum read him for attacking n00b and Rels. That is not the same as townreading everyone that sulfur defended.
I just don't understand this argument. Newbie scum KNOW that their scumbuddies' arguments are wrong, so I don't see why they wouldn't defend townies from their scumbuddies' arguments. The alignment of the person making the argument doesn't matter if it's against town, scum knows that it's wrong.
The advice I have gotten from a very strong town player is to avoid POE reads most of the time, as they leave you susceptible for townreading people for weak reasons. Townreading Oatsmaster because Sulfurus pushed him is definitely a weak reason. Townreading me because Sulfurus townread the people I scumread is also weak.
1. Early on, ruXxar was slow to discuss people's alignments + Show Spoiler +
I think that ruXxar's post answering my question to Kickstart while saying why you shouldn't answer questions directed at others is scummy. Others have disagreed. This isn't about that.
On June 12 2015 07:22 ruXxar wrote: Well if the mafia are just going to lynch themselves then this should be an easy game!
On June 12 2015 07:26 ruXxar wrote: I actually believe in the right of individual freedom, so as long as the mafia just stick to themselves and don't hurt anyone, I don't mind having them around .
On June 12 2015 07:18 Kickstart wrote: A friendly PSA: I don't like lurkers or liers or people who answer questions directed at other people.
Why don't you like it when people answer questions directed at others?
Usually you want to hear the reasoning of the person you're asking.
If someone answers the question before him, you potentially open up for someone else to make a logical conclusion beforehand, and then the guy the question was directed at get an easy bandwagon onto that guys conclusions.
On June 12 2015 07:18 Kickstart wrote: A friendly PSA: I don't like lurkers or liers or people who answer questions directed at other people.
Why don't you like liars? Lying is a powerful tool that when used in the right situation can greatly benefit one's interests. This goes for both sides. Deception is not a thing reserved only for mafia.
What you meant to say is that you don't like liars that have conflicting interests from you.
On June 12 2015 07:18 Kickstart wrote: A friendly PSA: I don't like lurkers or liers or people who answer questions directed at other people.
Why don't you like it when people answer questions directed at others?
Usually you want to hear the reasoning of the person you're asking.
If someone answers the question before him, you potentially open up for someone else to make a logical conclusion beforehand, and then the guy the question was directed at get an easy bandwagon onto that guys conclusions.
At least that is what I think.
........
The "at least that is what I think" pushes it over the top. I could see it as a joke, but then there's no reason to include the last sentence. It's either inherently contradictory or unnecessarily cautious.
Scum lean.
What I meant by the last sentence was that that was my number one assumption of why he made that statement. I won't pretend to be a mind reader, but I find it strange that he throws out unsubstantiated claims like that.
So far kickstart is a scumlean for me.
He makes a few posts at the start that don't say anything. Fine, whatever.
Then he answers the question I asked to Kickstart. Then he comments on Kickstart talking about people not lying. Even here, he seems to be putting words in Kickstart's mouth (whether or not you accept his explanation). And only in the very last post, after I made a scum lean on him, does he actually say something about Kickstart's alignment.
He's commenting without thinking about people's alignments. That simply isn't a town mindset.
On June 12 2015 07:18 Kickstart wrote: A friendly PSA: I don't like lurkers or liers or people who answer questions directed at other people.
Why don't you like it when people answer questions directed at others?
Usually you want to hear the reasoning of the person you're asking.
If someone answers the question before him, you potentially open up for someone else to make a logical conclusion beforehand, and then the guy the question was directed at get an easy bandwagon onto that guys conclusions.
At least that is what I think.
........
The "at least that is what I think" pushes it over the top. I could see it as a joke, but then there's no reason to include the last sentence. It's either inherently contradictory or unnecessarily cautious.
Scum lean.
What I meant by the last sentence was that that was my number one assumption of why he made that statement. I won't pretend to be a mind reader, but I find it strange that he throws out unsubstantiated claims like that.
So far kickstart is a scumlean for me.
Wait....
So you are serious about your explanation for not answering a question directed at someone else, because it helps them answer the question if they are scum. But in saying this, you answered a question directed at someone else, your scum read?
This explanation is going to be good.
Yes my answer was serious.
I see now how that actually denied us information from kick start. It was a mistake on my part to actually answer that question.
Can you please clarify, why are you scumreading Kickstart?
I didn't like his statement about not liking liars.
This whole game is based on the concept of deception. If you don't like that aspect of the game, why are you here? You might claim that you like hunting lying mafia, But it's not a given beforehand what role you will be, so that doesn't make sense either.
I have no prior info about any of the players here, so he might have some personal conviction for why he said that, but to me it didn't seem like a genuine well thought through statement.
Here is where he clearly explains his scumread of Kickstart.
While this read is bad, I could still see it coming from town, except for this post:
On June 12 2015 07:18 Kickstart wrote: A friendly PSA: I don't like lurkers or liers or people who answer questions directed at other people.
Why don't you like liars? Lying is a powerful tool that when used in the right situation can greatly benefit one's interests. This goes for both sides. Deception is not a thing reserved only for mafia.
What you meant to say is that you don't like liars that have conflicting interests from you.
Here, his first thought is that Kickstart made a wording error. And he provides a possible slight wording change that would make Kickstart's sentence align with ruXxar's own thoughts.
RuXxar said this before he scumread Kickstart.
On June 12 2015 08:14 Kickstart wrote: Liers means if you say you are going to do something but don't when it comes to forum mafia. Also good job breaking one of my rules, you answered a question directed at me!
This is Kickstart's second post in the thread, after ruXxar had concluded that he was scumreading Kickstart.
RuXxar gave a potential explanation for someone's behavior as town, then scumread that person before waiting for clarification or any more posts from them. To me, it feels like ruXxar forced the read to fit in.
3. Keeps saying he wants more thread activity, but does nothing about it + Show Spoiler +
On June 12 2015 07:47 batsnacks wrote: ##vote ruXxar
I would also like your reason for Voting on me.
Right now I want to make people talk so we have a wider range of information to base our lunches upon.
On June 12 2015 08:56 ruXxar wrote: I'm going to bed now to get some good rest. I hope to see lots of activity when I read the thread tomorrow!
In the time before he goes to bed, all he did was his previously mentioned scum lean on Kickstart. And he didn't really talk to Kickstart when Kickstart was in the thread (about 10 minutes after he said he was scumreading Kickstart).
4. Switches read on Kickstart for a weak reason + Show Spoiler +
On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote: Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking.
On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote: Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange.
This give me a townlean on kickstart.
This is pretty weak for a townread, especially given that ruXxar was scumreading Kickstart earlier.
It's possible that ruXxar's initial scumread of Kickstart was to promote discussion. However, this doesn't make sense to me because ruXxar spent so many posts doing nothing and not providing reads. If he really wanted to promote discussoin, he would have been much more active and willing to provide reads instead of just commenting on things. Only the next day did ruXxar actually provide reads on people other than Kickstart.
5. Delay in responding to batsnacks' case on geript + Show Spoiler +
At the time when batsnacks posted about geript's supposed scumslip, ruXxar had been posting fairly regularly and had been for a few hours. Still, it took him 30 minutes and several of his own posts before he actually commented on this, and he switched his vote from batsnacks to geript. By this time, geript had six votes and batsnacks had three; ruXxar's vote moved this to 7 to 2.
On June 14 2015 05:00 Sulfurus wrote: I didn't want to say anything about trfel before because his vote on Bats was protecting me but he is just straight up wrong on Rels. He makes a post here where he says rels made a bad town read on ruXxar even though (IMO) ruXx is one of the towniest players in the game.
He also keeps saying that Rels is tunneled on Plant's only post and he basically dismisses the rest of his filter when in fact it's really good and shows a town who is focused on trying to solve the game.
Here is me saying sulfurus's post is bold, I ask why mafia would post such a thing: + Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2015 05:00 Sulfurus wrote: I didn't want to say anything about trfel before because his vote on Bats was protecting me but he is just straight up wrong on Rels. He makes a post here where he says rels made a bad town read on ruXxar even though (IMO) ruXx is one of the towniest players in the game.
He also keeps saying that Rels is tunneled on Plant's only post and he basically dismisses the rest of his filter when in fact it's really good and shows a town who is focused on trying to solve the game.
This is bold. Why does mafia post this?
Here geript explains that sometimes mafia like to defend town poorly. geript knows that Rels is town, yet he would sheep Trfel's case on Rels: + Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2015 05:00 Sulfurus wrote: I didn't want to say anything about trfel before because his vote on Bats was protecting me but he is just straight up wrong on Rels. He makes a post here where he says rels made a bad town read on ruXxar even though (IMO) ruXx is one of the towniest players in the game.
He also keeps saying that Rels is tunneled on Plant's only post and he basically dismisses the rest of his filter when in fact it's really good and shows a town who is focused on trying to solve the game.
This is bold. Why does mafia post this?
It's not uncommon for mafia to defend town badly. Especially newer mafia.
Wow bats... I'm speechless.
I had you and geript as my top two scum.
I refuse to believe that you would bus your own scum teammate this hard. You really redeemed yourself here in my eyes.
I'll have to change my alignment of you to town and change my vote to geript.
##Unvote batsnacks ##Vote geript
RuXxar's reasoning is really bad, too. He doesn't say that batsnacks' argument is persuasive or accurate, and really doesn't offer any commentary about it at all. He just says that he was scumreading both batsnacks and geript, but batsnacks can't be bussing geript here. So why does this make batsnacks town? Why isn't this mafia!batsnacks trying to get town!geript lynched instead of himself?
Only later does ruXxar imply that batsnacks provided a convincing argument.
On June 14 2015 21:52 ruXxar wrote: So first off.
I'm very disappointed that the night actually started 1 hour earlier than expected. It didn't give me enough time to analyze batsnacks accusation even though it made sense when he posted it. I can't tell you his reasons for doing so, but it felt like such an improvised and irregular post that I don't know what to make of it. All game I had him as scum, and suddenly he makes this one move which totally breaks with his character so far. I can't help but feel like i've been fooled. I want to say that I should've stuck to my gut feeling and not be swayed so easily.
If I disregard that one action of his, then batsnacks is still my top scumread.
Why does he only now say that he was disappointed about the deadline being one hour earlier than he thought? Furthermore, in this post he's saying both that he wished he had more time to see through batsnacks' deception but he needs to ignore that post to scumread batsnacks. He's saying both that the post is good and that it's bad. This doesn't make sense.
First, ruXxar said that he didn't see anything alignment indicative from Sulfurus' filter (on Day 1). He even scumread geript partly for his scumread of Sulfurus.
During Night 2, ruXxar pointed out two of Sulfurus' posts that he didn't think came from a town mindset, and switched his read on Sulfurus to mafia.
On June 15 2015 07:12 ruXxar wrote: I'm 100% in on Rels.
Thoughts on Sulfurus?
Also scum.
Although I have to say, there's something that irs me greatly about his play.
What irks me is that sulfurs actions are so blatantly bad. Attacking trelf, which to a lot of people is a townie, had such a low probability of working that I'd think no mafia would be stupid enough to try to use that as their defense.
In his last game he played he went against the grain and was actually town, so from a meta standpoint his play makes sense sort of?
Still the associations between him and rels are too strong.
Scum
He's scumreading Sulfurus primarily because of an association with Rels. This allows ruXxar to lynch Rels and then not Sulfurus later, or to change his mind on Rels and then not switch to Sulfurus. There's no mention of the points that ruXxar brought up to scumread Sulfurus during Night 1.
From there, ruXxar changes his mind on Sulfurus and says that he is town.
On June 15 2015 23:21 ruXxar wrote: Im changing my My read on sulfur to town.
I'll explain further when I get home.
Here's my reasoning on sulfur:
1. Sulfur under pressure of getting lynched tries to accuse townread trfel of being mafia, and hard defends Rels. This play is so bad that I don't even think a bad mafia would make this play, but still it's possible. 2. After n00bking's epitaph where he recommended to lynch sulfur as #1, moosy went of the offensive.
On June 15 2015 07:35 Kickstart wrote: Maybe me being suspicious of all of them early day 1 will buy me some town cred???? I need some after being afk so long.
Don't worry. It looks like Rels -> Sulfurus right now. If both are right, I'm pretty sure we'll have to vote to kill ruXxar and we always have cop to check if necessary.
Moosy and kick then both HARD agree that I have to bus rels and sulfur as the only chance to clear my name.
On June 15 2015 07:35 Kickstart wrote: Maybe me being suspicious of all of them early day 1 will buy me some town cred???? I need some after being afk so long.
Don't worry. It looks like Rels -> Sulfurus right now. If both are right, I'm pretty sure we'll have to vote to kill ruXxar and we always have cop to check if necessary.
I'm sorry, why would you vote me out when I agree they are scum?
On June 15 2015 07:35 Kickstart wrote: Maybe me being suspicious of all of them early day 1 will buy me some town cred???? I need some after being afk so long.
Don't worry. It looks like Rels -> Sulfurus right now. If both are right, I'm pretty sure we'll have to vote to kill ruXxar and we always have cop to check if necessary.
I'm sorry, why would you vote me out when I agree they are scum?
Bussing is a known thing friend. That is why you are last in the line.
On June 15 2015 07:42 ruXxar wrote: Gaaah, my head hurts real bad right now.
I can't understand sulfurs logic at all.
Why would he defend rels so hard yet make such a terrible play to not become a lynch target. It makes no sense to me.
His actions are so inconsistent. On one hand he hard defends rel for god knows what reason, Then he makes a terrible play that I don't think a mafia would do.
I want some second opinions in this.
Sulfurus is just plain scum lol. He's trying to play like he usually does but the role of a Mafia teammate is interfering with his play.
On June 15 2015 07:45 ruXxar wrote:
On June 15 2015 07:41 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 15 2015 07:35 Kickstart wrote: Maybe me being suspicious of all of them early day 1 will buy me some town cred???? I need some after being afk so long.
Don't worry. It looks like Rels -> Sulfurus right now. If both are right, I'm pretty sure we'll have to vote to kill ruXxar and we always have cop to check if necessary.
I'm sorry, why would you vote me out when I agree they are scum?
You have no choice but to agree looking at how everyone is voting against them and there's too much evidence against them.
3. I then push really hard on sulfur to get his thoughts on Rels. He STILL didn't want to change his view on Rels and vote for him. If he was mafia scum, and the #1 suspect by n00bking. Would he not also vote for rels to try to clear his name? Any sane mafia person would.
4. If I were mafia together with with sulfur, and our only chance of winning was to bus Rels as the first lynch target, would I not instruct my mafia teammate to also vote on Rels?
I can only conclude that Sulfurus is Town
Why is ruXxar only thinking about bussing?
Furthermore, this argument just doesn't make sense. If Rels is town, it falls apart completely.
When ruXxar changes his read on Rels, he doesn't revisit Sulfurus at all.
7. Inconsistency with regards to the implication of Sulfurus' flip on Rels' alignment + Show Spoiler +
On June 17 2015 05:55 ruXxar wrote: Sulfur: If sulfur is mafia then I don't think these 3 people are mafia :
Bats, Moosy, Rels
On June 17 2015 07:13 ruXxar wrote: Well.
Since he flipped mafia I'm sticking to the list I posted earlier.
These people are not mafia :
Bats Moosy
On June 17 2015 08:20 ruXxar wrote: Actually from the way Sulfur played I can conclude that Rels is mafia. 100%
Yeah...
8. Jumped around a lot and posted a variety of thoughts Day 1 through Night 2, then stopped + Show Spoiler +
It's generally scummy to keep changing a read for no reason. But if someone does it all the time, it's possible that they just play like this. It's not bad, it just means that you have to look at the bigger picture for mafia motivation.
I've been generally ignoring the fact that ruXxar's reads keep changing all the time. However, over the course of Day 3, his reads stayed relatively constant. He's not being crazy and jumping on everything, he was basically just suspicious of scott31337, Oatsmaster, and sometimes Damdred throughout the day. Not many read switches at all.
It makes me feel like ruXxar is mafia and got too lazy to keep constantly changing his reads, he saw the lynch on town and let it sit there. This is shown because he initially said that Oatsmaster is scum and scott31337 is town, but when the scott31337 wagon didn't move, he switched to scott31337 and then sat there for the rest of the day.
Reasons ruXxar could be town
1. Joined the push onto batsnacks as the second vote + Show Spoiler +
While ruXxar didn't do anything to actually promote discussion or push anything for the first day, he did start the next day with a push on batsnacks. These actions are consistent with his words.
2. Generally willing to make his opinions clear + Show Spoiler +
First with his scumread of batsnacks, then by following that up to scumread geript.
3. Very active
The last two points are simple and general, but they shouldn't be underestimated.
I don't feel completely sure, but it does feel like ruXxar is reasonably likely to be mafia here. It's not that hard for mafia to provide clear reasoning, the hard part is for the reasoning to be sensible, deal with scumbuddies nonchalantly, and to be consistent enough to be understood. And ruXxar is active and clear, but his play shows faults with regards to these things.
I've only played with WaveofShadow once before, in Noir Mini Mafia Chapter 3. I was town, and he was scum. We caught him Day 2, and I helped with that.
I caught him mostly for commenting and sharing suspicions but not actually pushing his reads, and for having his pushes not line up with his words. So I'll be looking primarily at how his words and actions line up.
On June 12 2015 11:11 geript wrote: IDK what moosy is honestly. I kinda think he's mafia because for the most part no one commented on what's like the easiest post to shit all over but I'm the only person who's seemingly have a thought about him. But the post is TL noobielicious.
So he's scum making obvious looking town lynchbait post because nobody at all commented on it?
This is shitlogic right here ladies and gents. ##vote: geript
I will be so proud of myself here.
On June 12 2015 14:39 WaveofShadow wrote: Back from streaming
Town tier: Oats, Kickstart, Moosy Blergh tier: Almost everybody Scum tier: Geript, noobking
On June 13 2015 02:26 MoosyDoosy wrote: @veterans, is geript too obvious of a Mafia here to be one as Scott suggests? I'm curious because I haven't seen him play prior.
Too scummy to be scum is a poor metric. Geript absolutely can be (and likely is) mafia here.
WaveofShadow made several other posts on geript. He seemed truly interested in pushing geript, and his filter has a clear direction.
While geript wasn't providing large amounts of new content, WaveofShadow was reading and responding to geript.
On June 13 2015 03:12 WaveofShadow wrote: You wish you could get me lynched bbygrl.
I like your 'everyone is town' list. Especially the part where you exclude me from it.
This is a clear difference from WaveofShadow's play in Noir Chapter 3 (as scum).
His suspicion of n00bKing wasn't pushed, but he provided an insightful reason for removing his scumread of n00bKing (that newbie mafia would stop doing the thing that was getting them scumread, while only newbie town would keep doing it).
On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote: Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange.
Why is that weird
However, this is something I noticed WaveofShadow do as scum. He scumreads someone, and then says why someone else's reasons for scumreading that person are wrong. This doesn't make much sense from a town perspective.
In addition to geript, (and excluding n00bKing), WaveofShadow showed suspicion towards Sulfurus and batsnacks. When he changed his read on geript (for a weird reason, see here), he was fairly early to suggest that batsnacks was town, and voted for Sulfurus. Even though his explanation for unvoting geript isn't very convincing, I don't see scum voting for Sulfurus here while saying that batsnacks (the other wagon at the time) is town. With only these two wagons, and batsnacks being in the lead, this play doesn't make sense. The last thing scum wants to do on Day 1 is to bus.
And when WaveofShadow returns the next day, he does push the Sulfurus lynch. + Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2015 03:00 geript wrote: And wave got added for feels iirc but weekly so. that might have been earlier though
You know it's funny I remember unvoting you for feels and now that I'm back and seeing that you haven't done anything, nor am I seeing hardcore scumhunter geript I'm starting to worry again.
Would not lynch above Sulf though. Nothing redeeming about that guy whatsoever. Might sheep Trfel too. Really liking him this game.
I also remember Damdred and Scott pinging my radar for some reason---something along the lines of not knowing where they stand but I think scott sort of addressed it. Damdred who do YOU want to lynch today aside form 'not batsnacks?'
On June 14 2015 04:47 Damdred wrote: Imo lynch rels trfel has made several excellent posts that really show someone being crummy. I think it's a good case
I'm tempted to sheep myself but I personally think Sulf is worse here. He keeps showing up, posting something once of no consequence and fucking off again. Why exactly do you think Rels is a better lynch?
On June 14 2015 05:00 Sulfurus wrote: I didn't want to say anything about trfel before because his vote on Bats was protecting me but he is just straight up wrong on Rels. He makes a post here where he says rels made a bad town read on ruXxar even though (IMO) ruXx is one of the towniest players in the game.
He also keeps saying that Rels is tunneled on Plant's only post and he basically dismisses the rest of his filter when in fact it's really good and shows a town who is focused on trying to solve the game.
This is bold. Why does mafia post this?
'Cause he's about to be lynched. Come on, bats.
I'm fine with Sulf and Rels being the wagons for now. I'll keep my vote where it is for the moment. We should try and consolidate closer to deadline though so no room for last minute solo switches
I do find it odd that WaveofShadow wasn't around for the two hours before the deadline, but he did hint at the possibility that he wouldn't be online. I missed that earlier.
WaveofShadow scumread Sulfurus and Rels on Night 1, and followed up with a vote on Sulfurus early in Day 2. He continued to actually push Sulfurus. Assuming that Rels is town (which could very well be false...), I don't see why mafia!WaveofShadow would bus Sulfurus instead of voting for Rels when Rels had five votes. The Rels wagon looked solid (this was before Rels started his extreme activity thing), and WaveofShadow had scumread both of them.
I'm getting sleepy now, I can't finish this tonight. But WaveofShadow pushed Sulfurus very aggressively, at times when mafia wouldn't need or want to bus. Furthermore, the way he pushed his scumreads through the first half (or so) of Day 2 is vastly different from his play as scum (Noir Chapter 3). I find it very hard to see WaveofShadow being scum here.
Reasons ruXxar could be scum Would like to see ruXxar's response.
1. Early on, ruXxar was slow to discuss people's alignments:
I don't see how your quotes back up that statement. All of those quotes are from the first few pages of the game, and then there's even a scumlean in there.
My reads so far this game has been :
Mafia: # Kickstart scum, # Bats scum, # Moosy medic # Geript scum (I read his filter before the battrap and I already found it lacking. It was easy for me to sheep bats at that point) # n00bking town, # Trfel town, # Rels scum, # Moosy scum baiting as medic, # kickstart scum, # oatsmaster and scott scum. # scott town # wave town # batsnacks town # kickstarter town
Probably not correct order,but accurate enough.
To say I haven't been out there putting my neck on the line and making alignment statements is wrong. I used exactly that argument against Moosy first time around when I accused him of being wishy washy and non committal.
2. Early scumread of Kickstart feels forced
Again an argument from the first 5 pages of the game, you read too much into it.
3. Keeps saying he wants more thread activity, but does nothing about it
First off, my filter is twice as long as yours. Second off, if you read my filter you can see that I've actually been pushing the thread all game, not afraid to throw out new thoughts, trying to spotlight players I feel have been getting an easy pass. Whenever I've had an opinion I've thrown it out there, even to the point of making me look wishy washy sometimes because I make new realizations minutes after I post them, and most of the time they even contradict my previous thoughts. I'm not afraid to make pushes on people that other considered towny based on my own interpretation of the situation. I don't need other peoples arguments to make a push, I make them myself.
When I say that I'm going to bed, it usually means I'm going from my computer to my bed, and start reading on my phone. And yes, I don't push equally as strong every day. I have a day job that requires my attention and sometimes the thread is simply at a standstill and you've run out of ideas.
I find this argument to be very weak also.
4. Switches read on Kickstart for a weak reason:
I actually went through geripts filter and came to the same conclusion that he did. Admit it, geripts filter was weak, and going through the filter I came to the same realizations that kickstart did.
Besides the first statement about liars from kickstart, he did nothing else that made me feel he was more scummy. Again, you read too much into the first few pages of the game.
5. Delay in responding to batsnacks' case on geript
I think this makes perfect sense. My top two scumreads were bats and geript. I did not think bats would bus his own teammate. This makes bats seem town.
I don't see how this logic is hard to follow.
6. Changing stance on Sulfurus
So this is probably the most damning evidence against me, my alignment with sulfurus.
Yes, I was wrong on sulfurus. My mentality was that his plays were too obviously bad to be scum. As you say this argument falls apart if Rels is town, which I actually realized in a later post
Despite that, I still clung onto the fact that sulfurus was town. Even if the evidence was right in front of me, i had somehow locked away the thought of re-evaluating sulfurus, due to my earlier conviction. That's a terrible mindset to have from my side, but that's how I thought at that point.
Combine that with the fact that he'd been talking good about me all game, he actually did an excellent job in converting me to his side. I don't know if that was his plan, but I have to commend him for it, and slap myself hard for falling for it.
7. Inconsistency with regards to the implication of Sulfurus' flip on Rels' alignment
Let me explain. After the flip on sulfurus, my head was in a disarray. Everything I had believed in so hard had just fallen apart. At this point im scrambling to try to make sense of things.
So I put Rels on that list because the only reason I could think of that made sense with sulfurus flipped, was that rels was town. Which comes from the realization I had in point 6 above.
Then I later reevaluate and think that I must've been overthinking and that sulfur was actually just defending his scum teammate all along which I outlined in this post:
On June 17 2015 09:24 Oatsmaster wrote: I really don't understand why everyone thinks rels is scummy because sulph flipped scum, can someone either explain or quote some shit
Here's my thoughts.
People were voting on sulf day one. Trfel makes a case on rel. Sulf calls rels his best town read and sticks too it all game.
End of story.
I used to believe in the too obvious too be scum theory. I don't anymore.
8. Jumped around a lot and posted a variety of thoughts Day 1 through Night 2, then stopped + Show Spoiler +
I've been generally ignoring the fact that ruXxar's reads keep changing all the time. However, over the course of Day 3, his reads stayed relatively constant. He's not being crazy and jumping on everything, he was basically just suspicious of scott31337, Oatsmaster, and sometimes Damdred throughout the day. Not many read switches at all.
By day 2, tell me who else you would find suspicious besides scott, oats and possibly damdred?
You can't deny that oats and scott were looking the worst, you even said it yourself and almost everyone agreed on the point that either of them were scum. So this point applies to pretty much everyone on day 2. You call me lazy, but I made cases against oats and scott and I mentioned damdred multiple times.
I actually thought that Scott was mafia. But then I looked at his day 1. And I had to agree with moosy, it actually looked very towny.
I'm not buying it until you explain why scott31337 went for Sulfurus early in the thread until now.
You're right.
When i look at Scotts voting patterns it doesn't make sense, since he even voted for Rels.
Yup Scott is town and Rels is mafia.
I later changed my mind on scott since I didn't like his defense when pressured.
-------------------------------
If something is unclear or you feel I didn't adequately respond to a point, please ask and I will clarify any questions you have.
I'm very happy to have an open discussion of where we go from here.
This is my current read list:
#Trfel: town. #wave: town. He did make some weird posts lately though, not sure what to read into that. #damdred: uncertain, I pegged mostly his inactivity, but he said he had internet outage so I don't know. #batsnacks: town. #kickstart: town. #Rels: uncertain. He puts in a lot of effort though, which I like. #Oats: scum although I don't know why sulfurus would try to make a case against him, not sure here.
I'll be re-evaluating some posts from the last day and try to create some talking points.
1. My point is that for your first several posts, you didn't say anything about anyone's alignment at all. You only did that after you saw me do it. This isn't a game-long trend.
2. "First five pages" isn't a good excuse. Why did you scumread Kickstart despite already coming up with a plausible explanation for how his play comes from town?
3. First, realize that these points I brought up are individual events, they aren't huge trends. This point refers to the first day, before you went to sleep, in which you make a large quantity of posts and several times mention wishing the thread activity would be higher, but don't actually do anything about it. The only read you gave in this time was the scum lean on Kickstart.
4. So, geript's filter was obviously weak. You and Kickstart reached the same (obvious) conclusion about it. Why does this make Kickstart town?
5. Okay, let's imagine for a moment that it's Day 1 again, and batsnacks and geript are both scum.
You think that both batsnacks and geript are scum. Then, batsnacks pushes geript very hard. You don't think they are scum together.
However, how do you know if batsnacks is town and geript is scum, or if batsnacks is scum and geript is town? Mafia!batsnacks has absolutely no reason not to bury town!geript with that post, and a whole ton of incentive to do this.
6. Sorry, I missed that the first time. I'm glad that you realized that Rels being town didn't fit your townread of Sulfurus. However, it's still hard to believe that you noticed this, and then didn't change your read on Sulfurus when you changed your read on Rels.
7. Okay, fair enough.
8. I'm assuming that you meant Day 3.
I guess that's a pretty good point. Ok. I feel stupid now
Anyway, I know I said this already, but it's important to realize that the things I brought up were single events. The generalizations of your play were the reasons to townread you. And that's why I'm not so sure about scumreading you, because I haven't found any real generally scummy trends in your play (except for connection with Sulfurus and occasionally using quick read changes in ways that benefit mafia).
On June 21 2015 06:43 ruXxar wrote: Here's my thought on the mafias play.
Either your or wave are going to die. If neither of you die, then one of you has to be mafia.
Does that sound far fetched?
That logic is very flawed. The statement is that night kills are WIFOM. Night kill analysis can work, however every night kill has a LOT of possible explanations. Without considering all of those, you can't gain any information from night kills.
I'd rather not discuss the night kill more specifically, for obvious reasons.
Oatsmaster is very likely scum for reasons previously described.
Rels is a mafia lean to me because I feel that he was extremely scummy before he was super active for one day. However, since then, I don't get the impression that he's done all that much. He did go through the thread with his voting analysis, which must have taken a lot of work, however he didn't really reach many new conclusions from that. It feels sort of like he's still riding on these reads he created. While the content he put out on that day was insane, I get the impression that he's mostly just working when he needs to look better, and when he's townread he's sitting back.
RuXxar is.... ruXxar. It's so hard to say. I still kind of feel like he could be mafia, though.
And just for fun, remember a few posts back where ruXxar claimed to have twice the filter length of me? Technically this is true, but when you put the filters into "show all" mode and then open up all of the non-quote spoilers, my filter is relatively close to his in length (I estimated his is about 20% longer than mine). Yay for being wordy XD
On June 21 2015 07:04 ruXxar wrote: Why batsnacks and not wave or Trfel....
I know I said I'd talk about this if I survived, but I think I need to clear my head.
Be back later.
Here are all of the possibilities I can think of for the night kill.
1. WaveofShadow is mafia and killed batsnacks to try and avoid suspicion 2. Attempt at WIFOM on WaveofShadow and/or Damdred 3. Batsnacks was one of few universal townreads left, and he was never going to be lynched 4. Batsnacks was being very active, and is an experienced player
To me, it feels like the reasons for the night kill were three-fold. Batsnacks was unlynchable, universally townread, and dangerous to scum. This game, batsnacks was very active and he was reading critically. He was always willing to share his thoughts, no matter how controversial they were. Several times this game, he got everyone to sheep him. He certainly threatened to catch the mafia team single-handedly. The WIFOM (both about who didn't die) and the WIFOM suspicion on Damdred/WaveofShadow were just bonuses.
On June 21 2015 08:09 ruXxar wrote: I'm really tempted to buy TL+ just so I can search the thread much faster jesus.
How does TL+ help you search the thread faster? (not accusing, just wondering)
On June 21 2015 12:28 Oatsmaster wrote: All trfel has done this game is post cases and analysis of people which actually isn't great.
You mean, cases and analysis like the one that made you drop your repeated defense of Kickstart and vote for him over your scumread Sulfurus?
WaveofShadow raised some good points about Rels, but I still can see him as scum for the reasons I mentioned. But I need to take a much more careful look at his filter.
EPT
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