EPTI can't /in for about a week though. Man.
Witchcraft Mini Mafia III
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I can't /in for about a week though. Man. | ||
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Kickstart and Breshke I think are town. I actually like Freezing's response. For the Great Smurf Debate of 2015 I don't care if Freeze outs or not. personally, I'm happy if he/she doesn't. Obviously, she's doing it for a reason pre-game. I don't get why you want to ruin that for them. Anyway, anyone still around? | ||
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On June 08 2015 15:15 FreezingFoot wrote: I am. What did you like in my response? Why do you think Breshke is town? What do you think of bugs? I think you feel confident town won't lynch you for a stupid policy reason as you won't out as a smurf. I think Mafia would be more concerned with killing suspicion as soon as possible instead of drawing it out. Forcing your identity out is more a dick move to me. And really even if you did, I think it would derail the thread for longer determining if you are lying or not. Breshke and I think a lot alike. Reading his interaction and his vote on you I can see doing the same thing he did if I were here in the beginning. I'm all for fabricating a policy reason to push someone and then throwing a vote on a person to increase the pressure. You've responded and now there is information from the pressure vote. So, now it's time for WBG to move on. This is my 5th game I think. Everytime there is someone who is a little "angry" or insulty they are usually scum. So maybe a bad heuristic, but if I had to vote now, it would be on WBG, but I'll see if he gets out of this silly tunnel. | ||
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1. Chezinu rules. I worship the brown. LightningStrike basically same rule. 2. Flat wrong on the smurf issue and continues to bring it up. Town points to the person who understands the massive town advantage to having FreezingFoot be someone like townHolyflare. Bugs is NK1 hunting. Why would he ask who he should suck up to and who sucks? 3. Pretty often tunnelled towns help dig their own grave. If can't out him, easy mlynch. 4. After a couple people town Foot (sorry reading FF makes me think of Fecalfeast) he posts "oooh look I have 5 townreads! I'm just like YOU GUYS!" 5. Bill Mother Fucking Murray. | ||
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There is another instance where smurfing is beneficial to this town. We tend to rely a lot on meta. So, what happens when someone's meta is do nothing town, but try hard mafia and they want to change that? Or a chance to see if they can. Like, I'd lynch Onegu in an instant if he try harded. | ||
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On June 09 2015 13:49 Breshke wrote: 1. Can you tell me why LS is town 2. Why wouldnt he ask his partners in the mafia QT instead of the thread 3. I don't understand who is the tunneled town 4. the FF thing is totally happening with me aswell i vote we call him foot. He has backed up his reads though do any of the seem fake to you? I don't know if LS is town or not. No real idea. I wasn't playing but I read his last couple games while they were playing and I feel he's much more obvious D2/3. 2. I don't really understand your comment. His scummates won't know anybetter than him? 3. FreezingFoot was the tunneled town, but he didn't play into it. He responded really well. And Bugs switched to LS as soon as he saw it wasn't going to gain traction. 4. I think Foot is town. | ||
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I just read the postgame to Carnival where Rsoultin won as mafia. In it in the late game she pointed out that she usually dies N1/2 if she is town. That got me thinking too, since when I was scum with her, we killed Holyflare 2 hours after he subbed in just because he was TownHolyflare. So, that turned on a lightbulb that made me think of why it's in town's interest not to out the smurf. And why it's so beneficial to mafia if the smurf outs. | ||
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On June 09 2015 14:05 Breshke wrote: 1. Okay so you say WBG is mafia because he is going after the low hanging fruit that is LS. But that only applies if LS is town. So if you don't think LS is town I don't think you can make this read. 2. You say he is nightkill hunting by asking who is good and who isnt im asking why would he ask this in the thread instead of the mafia QT. 3.Oh by "tunneled" you mean someone who is being tunneled on. Okay this still doesn't make me think bugs is mafia. 4. Did you see his link to his reads page. He actually thinks foot is town as well. 1. I don't think he's mafia either though? And Chezinu literally did this in his champions game against his mafia mate. 2. I don't mean he's nightkill hunting by asking what people think would be the best town. I think it's what's on his mind. His push on Foot has three benefits to him if he is mafia. 1. it makes him appear town (pushing thread/conversation, and getting information), if he drives hard into someone often time these people fold and look scummy for a mlynch, outs the smurf he can decide with more accurate information who to kill AND this will likely generate more jubjubing from town deciding if the smurf lied or not. He sees the push on Foot doesn't have traction and people are towning him, so he posts "oh I have 5 town reads! this was totes productive! I'm so TOWN!" Then knows that he can't just kill a lurker, he goes after LS who is well LS. I don't know how you guys write notes, but uh I don't use sentences I use code words to remind me. Otherwise I would run out. He made it all pretty and nice to read for us. bleh Also, I don't like martyrs. | ||
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On June 09 2015 13:59 FreezingFoot wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote:Shockey I've being extremely busy today. Just got home. Did a quick skim in the thread. I've read bugs spread sheet and his reads felt genuine (with the exception of Breshke), reevaluating most of them accordingly to thread progression + I'm not willing to lynch the biggest filter day1 + him being upset with lack of activity feels true (I don't think scum would fuck off like he did when he is the main wagon). He may still be scum but this is enough to let him live another day. We already have a lot of information from him and we can deal with him later, if that is the case. I prefer to have him around day2 than any other scummy person who has few to almost no post at all. I'm willing to reread Shockey but I think Bugs is mafia. His play reminds me of Geript in Joats where his plan was to shit up the thread, disrupt the big names, and position himself in a leadership role. I must have missed it, why's Shockey scummier? He has only 1-2 posts doesn't he? Also, I don't want to see them or anything, but when you take notes, do you use full sentences? | ||
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On June 09 2015 03:47 FreezingFoot wrote: I'm slightly scumreading Shockey because I think these two posts doesn't go along: Votes randomly, gives town passes for both KS and Breshke out of openings, unreasonably votes with BM, throws this half ass intention of lynching a smurf but not actually wanting just because I'm active, giving no actual reason behind this statement. Thing is, I'm basically guilty of all this too. I town both KS and Bresh, I really like BM, and if I were around at the beginning I probably would have pressure voted you too. | ||
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If Bugs isn't going to be lynched I'm fine with waiting D2 for more information reasons. I'd vote Onegu. I'd feel dirty if he is scum and told us and we didn't believe him. | ||
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On June 09 2015 15:18 FreezingFoot wrote: You can see it the other way around Would Onegu, a guy that loves to play as mafia, refrain from claiming VT just to get town read? Most of the scum reads on him are because of this VT thing and I'm not sure why this is being taken so seriously. I would go as far as to say I think he is playing more similar to his town meta than his scum meta. He is being useless/uninterested, which is exactly how he plays as town I'm not so sure it's being taken that serious. When I talk about him in my last couple posts its in relation to having the choice of the lurkers/plynched. I completely agree that Onegu is useless and uninterested and that's his typical town game. I even mentioned earlier how I would lynch a try hard Onegu. But compared to 2 other players who between the two have 5 posts...the no claim thing is as good as any heuristic. | ||
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I want to lynch Bugs make no mistake about it. IF we are going to policy lynch I'll possibly vote for Onegu, Shockey or Stutters. I've already said why on Onegu, I'd prefer Stutters over Shock simply if we are doing a policy then might as well do the lurkiest. @BM I think it doesn't benefit town as much if a player with a strong town rep wants to smurf and play lazy. Other than they will survive (OH MY GOD I MUST KNOW FOOT IS A HYDRA!!!!) night 1. Course I kinda think that they won't be able to help themselves and still solve the game D2/3 which is also good for town. Anyway, off to work but will be checking in periodically. | ||
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Pure Policy. Bill, my points about the smurf is that there are several scenarios where it is beneficial to town to not know the smurf's identity. There are also some that benefit mafia. Bugs only considers 1 such scenario and has pushed it pretty consistently. So far no town points to anyone who sees the benefits to have a Holyflare type player smurfing. Both if he wanted to try hard or not. See that, and you'll see why it's beneficial to mafia to out the smurf. | ||
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On June 10 2015 05:47 yamato77 wrote: Kickstart really making no sense. I'm really questioning his alignment. For the record, I am a dick. Yes I think Shining is probably town but I disagree with everything he says. I also disagree with everything Bill posts but that doesnt mean much. I don't know how to read him and that makes me very unlikely to lynch him. Anyone doubting the lynch on LS need only to look at his filter and see just how uninterested in finding mafia this guy is. A lot of his posting is quite weak and he's really only attempting to feign interest or care when it's obvious that tonally he couldn't give a shit less and he hasn't really had any strong reads the entire game. Every single game this argument is made concerning LS. D2/3 if he's mafia he really really drops off. It's way more apparent than any of his D1 stuff. Haven't you played with him before? | ||
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On June 10 2015 05:56 LightningStrike wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2015 05:50 Tubesock wrote: Every single game this argument is made concerning LS. D2/3 if he's mafia he really really drops off. It's way more apparent than any of his D1 stuff. Haven't you played with him before? He had played with me before 3 times (Aperture 4, Ippo, and Assassination) in each of those games I was town but in Ippo Yamato was scum. So he really should know better. | ||
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Bug's google doc concerning Yamato77 his top town at 99% Not useful until recently. Entrance into the thread was very strong. His needlessly strong response to my simple question along with ignoring half the things I ask is very fishy, however. He helped push LS but what if he's bussing? Fairly unlikely still, but question remains. w/e fuck it let's not get paranoid. "w/e fuck it let's not get paranoid" is my favorite part. I particularly like it since I need to be reminded that Bugs is also displaying a towny trait! This entire doc is such a blessing to town. So helpful. Only a towny would be that helpful. Damn near every one of his entries is a display to make him look more towny. Since none of you would answer my request to point out why it is beneficial to town for Foot to not out. I can explain it for you lazy sheep. First, I think it is important to acknowledge that the players in this game are largely unfamiliar with each other. This can make the night one kill choice more difficult than if the majority of players know each other. I'm sure sensai Bugs will say that "No, mafia ALWAYS WITHOUT EXCEPTION kill the town who is the closest to being right". Uh yeah no sometimes town doesn't really have any idea, so mafia kill the ones they fear. Not all the time but often. There are various scenarios concerning the smurf and I won't come close to seeing them all. But take for instance a player like Holyflare or his caliber. A player who is both good at town and scum. There are players on this forum that are constantly killed night one. If they survive till Day 3 then they get lynched because no one can read them and if they survive they are obviously mafia. They die because mafia KNOWS they will figure out the game. So, Holyflare wants to actually play a game and go past night 1 or 2. You will never be able to convince me that 1) the chances of NKing HF would be the same and 2) that it would not benefit town IMMENSELY to have HF live for a few more days. HF just singlehandedly won a game in 5-3 mylo very recently because mafia didn't kill him for some reason. How the fuck can you say him staying hidden doesn't benefit town? So let's say he outs. Now, mafia has more information to judge their night kill on. Town will also just as likely argue about the outs authenticity. That benefits mafia again, no one is scumhunting. Town has to figure out the players alignment no matter if they out or not. But it gives mafia more information. It benefits mafia more than it benefits town. What if HF is scum? Sure, he outs and then we lynch him D3/4 because there is no way HF should be alive that long. So in that respect it benefits mafia for him to remain a smurf. That also requires him to tell the truth. So, HF who consistently is lynched for surviving too long is going to out himself truthfully? That seems like a dumb idea. Anyway, Bugs never considered more than just the one angle because his motive is to appear towny, not to solve the game. Bugs doesn't know hardly anyone in this game. Assuming new players don't smurf I think he's hoping he knows the player. Then he can make a better NK assessment. | ||
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On June 10 2015 08:10 LightningStrike wrote: gG Had no motivation to play when I saw I rolled scum  Questions to towns: Do you agree that LS would say that in QT at the beginning of the game? I think he would say that right away. Or something similar. If you were his partner, would you bus him? I would absolutely. I wouldn't do it straight out the gate but early enough so I can take credit. I'm pretty sure there were two games very recently that had mafia bussing each other D1 on this forum. It happens and it's a fucking smart play when you know your mate is going to be lynched D2 or 3 anyway. It could have been Onegu who actually first scummed LS I don't remember but it's obvious Bugs is taking credit for it and pushing how mafia would NEVER bus day 1 like that. NEVER. How many of you would? Maybe Bugs is town and he really wouldn't. It's possible. I think reality is that he is mafia and is doing a little magic trick for us. | ||
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Cop and priest check me tonight. If I don't turn up green on both lynch me. Simple. Almost every single one of you sheep think I am scum. So what's to lose? I promise to still contribute what I think on non Bugs players even since you all seem to think he's so town. | ||
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It's cute that you think you know my schedule because my tag is the United States. I spend more time outside the US than I do inside it. It's just another weak thing you are trying to pile on without thinking of other possibilites. Your motivation is purely to look town. Oh yeah you said I posted EoD but my last post was 2 hours prior to the end. When I was on Stutters he was the lead. LS was being pushed sure, but I already said why I wasn't going to vote him. Funny how my read on LS was "shit". My read was literally null with the knowledge that on Day 2/3 it would be pretty obvious. That's exactly what I said. I named 3 who I would policy lynch. Shockey and Stutters were literally equal to me with the exception that stutters had fewer posts. So I stuck on Stutters. Fuck yeah I'm fine with a lynch on a modkill when I think the lynch is policy which is essentially 50/50. With 2 hours left too I figured he would probably vote. Lots of people show up close to EoD. As far as I was concerned I was willing to wait for more certainty on LS as he was 50/50 to me, and the remainders were just as likely to flip town as mafia. So I'm happy with voting a modkill to avoid the 50% of lynching 2 towns. I am also completely fine with a no lynch if the wagons were people I had at 50%. The more time town has the more difficult it is for mafia to win. It's a race against time. | ||
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On June 10 2015 16:59 Breshke wrote: or we could not do this. Can you tell me about some other players now? Like who? | ||
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On June 10 2015 16:45 Breshke wrote: I really don't like this. Why are you still talking about the smurf thing no one cares about it anymore It also seems absurd that you just say he writes stuff to see townie yet don't show exactly where. Like explain WHY what he wrote is only posting to seem town and not because he is actual town. Being wrong isn't a scum tell but saying someone who voted and pushed mafia isn't trying to solve the game while you voted on a policy lynch seems dumb. I think the smurf thing was a show to look towny. He continues to push it. I'm saying he isn't looking at more than one angle of his argument because he isn't motivated to find the truth, he's motivated to look towny. | ||
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On June 10 2015 16:46 Breshke wrote: Even if LS didn't want to play I think his partners tell him to at least try D1 so they can use his KP. If he refused this then he is a dick and shouldn't have sighed up and I don't think LS would do that. That's very possible. But what if you have 2 mafia players who feel comfortable projecting town and can likely get and win votes? Sure, having that blue snipe ability is nice, but I think it pays off to bus a mate who will die in a day or two anyway. If I were mafia I would bus LS just like Bugs did. At least try to anyway. | ||
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On June 10 2015 10:22 wherebugsgo wrote: + Show Spoiler + btw FF I hope that lynch did not discourage you from posting. If you are town the last thing you should do is disappear at this time. If you indeed don't spend this time talking to me, I'll have to list you as a scumread. If I die I hope the town is not dumb enough to let you go quietly. Partly the reason is because I won't be around ~3 hours before lynch, because I will be boarding a plane. Indeed, I probably won't be around after the lynch either so the next ~6 hours or so and maybe early morning tomorrow is the best time for me to get as much information out of every player to provide the best I can before my time in the game ends. So, let's talk. Convince me why you're not scum. Convince me of your best two reads right now. I know you think BM is mafia, you've argued that point through and through. Let's assume BM is either dead or town. Who else would you pick? I want reasons. I also want specifics and the details behind your thought process. Lastly, since I think this would be very useful, I want you to claim your identity so I can read your past games.+ Show Spoiler + If any of you disagree that meta would be useful in this situation, please go ahead and reread my case on LS, and tell me exactly why a smurf FF in this situation would be doing us a favor by not telling us his identity. My comparisons between LS's countless town games and his really mediocre mafia play was a significant driving force behind my confidence in the lynch, and I would expect that a town smurf would understand the implications of having more information on the table. From page 9 of his filter. Just prior to his post to me and after you and him talked blue powers. | ||
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I liked ShoCkeys last few posts. I do not have a 3rd scumspect just yet. But I have 2.5 days to find it before I get lynched. | ||
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On June 10 2015 23:05 Kickstart wrote: Tubes not making any sense to me but maybe its cause I've been up for like 24 hours. Pick any post or points in a post that you have a question on and tell me why it's confusing. I'll be around for just under 2 hours. What do you people as mafia value more: one conditional kp with whatever chances they are to land this game, or being essentially confirmed town? It's a little different but a recent game Sicklucker orbed mafiamatePalmar to death for no real reason. Then rode that confirmed status to mafia victory. Palmar was not under pressure aside for being good and alive of being lynched. Sicklucker wasn't under abnormal pressure either. While I don't think Palmar represented additional kp, they still sacrificed him. Town there didn't have a chance. LightningStrike flat out admitted he wasn't motivated to play scum. Fucking tell me that mafia would not consider busing him D1. | ||
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But if I thought, or had a mate I thought could go super town I'd chase that power vote. Bugs is doing all sorts of showy town things. Like here: Others noticed it. + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2015 07:26 Kickstart wrote: Yeh, less feigned concerned about the flip now thanks. And even you commented on it. + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2015 07:28 batsnacks wrote: Why are you concerned at all if you're 90% confident that is overwhelming confidence for a d1 lynch? If LS flips town and you could instantly take it back and lynch someone else today who would you choose? He also "rage quit" due to "people not playing". Then comes back and says: On June 10 2015 06:41 wherebugsgo wrote: alright, done throwing a tantrum and I'm going to play to my win condition now. This looks fake to me. Town would just start playing again, no need to announce it. FAKE FAKE FAKE Look at his google doc. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18hJSlotqO9cGIaINjn3EQtuMrxz1p6SH_G4algS3Otk/edit#gid=0 Those are written for us to think he's town not for him to keep track of people and figure out the game. He displays transparency, paranoia, and definitive reads. But notice how all the paragraphs are full sentences, easy for others to digest, and in all the towns most the stuff he writes is how they could be scum too and he's not sure. Except for Breshke. In one of them he puts "mafia can't fake this IMO". Seriously, in your own notes you are telling yourself it's in your opinion? This shit is so fake. A Town writer KNOWS this entire note is in their own opinion. This is purely to sway town to think he's town. He then adds "w/e fuck it don't get paranoid" on his last. He has to point out to us he is paranoid like that Honest Bob's Car Sales down the road is honest. Town doesn't need to tell others they are paranoid, it comes out. He's saying that so we see it and look at his entries and add town points to him. Bugs is consistently telling us he is being towny. Town doesn't fucking have to do that. They are just town. Pure show. | ||
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Personally, I like the notes that are a little cryptic. There is value in finding the people who are inquisitive and searching for the truth. Finding scum is most important, but finding towns is also very important. But I'm too chicken to point suspicion your way so I'm going to be off for a few hours and then shortly on and off again till later tonight. The good thing is when bill/tubes/foot all flip town the game won't be over. | ||
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It is laughable that someone towns me for try hard night posting. This is something I can do just as easily as mafia or town. | ||
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On June 10 2015 08:00 Blazinghand wrote: Day 1 Vote Count LightningStrike (8): wherebugsgo, Yamato77, Onegu, ShoCkeyy, Kickstart, The Shining, Breshke, batsnacks Bill Murray (1): FreezingFoot Stutters695 (3): Tubesock, Bill Murray , Not voted (1): Stutters695 Currently, LightningStrike is set to be lynched! Day 1 ends in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00). With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Remember to vote in thread, and cast withcraft votes via PM Failure to vote in either category will result in a modkill. This is the world you think we live in. That Bill Murray and I are the most likely scum. That LightningStrike was our partner and we not only defend him but vote the same guy at the end. I get that I'm too stupid and bad to see that I should blend in and just vote LS, but uh you think Bill Murray is going to bounce around like that at the end and NOT cash in on town cred? That he would not have already decided to bus LightningStrike till 30 minutes before hand? The same LightningStrike that has a really hard time posting as mafia on D2+? Really? Bill Murray. The same Bill Murray who is famous for his bans. That one. That guy doesn't seem like a dude who would have any trouble being forceful if he was mafia. It is laughable that you think he would be hesitant. But I am the stupid convoluted one that sucks. Uh huh. You think that FreezingFoot would choose Bill Murray over LightningStrike in this case? Sure it's possible to have 2 mafia up for lynch. I mean Wherebugsgo is fucking baller baddass then clearly top town player on this sight if he caught not just 1 but 2 mafia on D1. | ||
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On June 11 2015 12:42 wherebugsgo wrote: You people make everything so hard because you look at the wrong shit in the wrong way What do you care what I am doing? You're "town" right and I'm your biggest scumread. Like, you were so quick to say you were goign to ignore FreezingFoot because he's so dumb that he obviously won't have anything useful to say. You say you are going to ignore Kickstart (I think you said it to him too) and of course you get all emotional and "ragequit" talking to Bill Murray and yet continue to engage me. Someone who is clearly fucking bonkers and stupid. Like the entire thread thinks so. But yet, you don't treat me like a lunatic. Pretend I was posting like Alakaslam or Chezinu. Lots of people ignore them because they can't read them. If my stuff is so out there and stupid, why bother responding? | ||
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Why wouldn't the 3rd vote LS? I think the 3rd did. I don't think any of the non-LS voters were mafia. So...what's the question really? | ||
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I am doing other things than just playing mafia. | ||
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On June 11 2015 12:57 wherebugsgo wrote: I'm annoyed with my town reads talking about stupid shit like when people post and when people defend themselves and how aggressive someone is and in general always donning the captain obvious hat and pointing out surface level things that any 2nd grader with competent reading could point out. Most of that shit is useless by itself I like this post. It is useless shit by itself. Who is showboating? Who is over dramatized their lynch anticipation? Who said Tubesock ONLY talks about the smurf and Did I only talk about the smurf? So I didn't post ANYTHING but the smurf? Who "ragequit" for 12 hours on day 1 for flimsy assed reasons and made sure everyone knew it. Who made a spreadsheet for all the land to see? A lot of little things add up. Like go look at a town guide and Wherebugsgo is the towniest town who ever towned town. | ||
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On June 11 2015 13:00 Breshke wrote: I'm not trying to sound like an ass but just making sure you know it is majority lynch? Clearly, I'm not really understanding your question haha. You asked if I thought the 3rd mafia player would vote LS. That the 3rd would also bus him. I think 3rd did. I think the 3 people (aside from LS) are town...I feel like I'm saying "YES" and you are reading kanji or something. | ||
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Yup. I'm that obstinate asshole. | ||
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On June 11 2015 13:24 Breshke wrote: Okay so this game has majority voting instead of plurality which is normally used on this forum. That means there HAS to be a majority of alive people (yesterday it was 7) voting on a wagon for it to be through otherwise a no lynch occurs. This is why I ask if you realise it was majority voting because you say the two other mafia voted for LS which means they chose not to vote for the other wagons which in your world are both town. They didn't even have to lynch one of these other wagons they could have just got a no lynch. I understand it's a majority lynch and how that works. So scenarios. The scum can either try to save a basically saveless LS (meaning later in the game) and later respond to heat for saving LS D1, they can just bus him and avoid suspicion altogether and possibly gain some town cred, or go for the no lynch and then receive heat for it. I don't think the resultant town chaos would be worth it. That situation I think the smartest move is to be on LS. Course it's possible they weren't but I think that the decision to bus was made well in advance. | ||
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On June 11 2015 13:40 Breshke wrote: I don't see how you can say LS was saveless when you didn't think he was mafia. I feel like you believe what you are saying but none of it makes any sense.. So, you think that mafiaLS isn't obvious mafia on D3? You think he can maintain his level of posting over the course of a couple days? I do not. The longer LS is alive the more and more scummy he appears to everyone. He maintains his town posting. Do you not agree with that? The longer he is alive as mafia this drastically lowers any towncred a bus offers. | ||
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On June 11 2015 05:07 Kickstart wrote: But to summarize I explained that if scum saw Bill on their team they just bus him regardless because it is only a matter of time before he gets lynched so you get free town cred. tubes I said was scummy before eod1 and you and bill looked the worst after the lynch. Don't see anything confusing in any of that. You reading me as being too enthusiastic or whatever is just you misreading me. Weird that he thinks the same situation I do, but the names are different. He thinks that mafia is more likely to try to bus Bill Murray rather than LightningStrike. He thinks that Bill Murray becomes obvious mafia the longer he is alive. He thinks it's a team of Bill and FreezingFoot bussing instead of Bugs and LS. So clearly I am not the only moron in this game. On June 11 2015 05:20 Kickstart wrote: Well sure at the moment I'm not analyzing anything because I been up 30 hours and don't care too atm. But reads remain the same from earlier anyways. bill/foot/tube scummy. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 13:57 Breshke wrote: He doesn't need to survive till D3 he needs to survive ONE day phase. He uses his bullet then they don't care. Keeping his vigi shot is important. Right now even if they hit with their other one (if they havnt already missed) they don't make us lsoe a lynch they just make us not able to gain a lynch through a roleblock save vest or whatever. If they had LS shot they would have 2 extra KP which if both hit would give us one less misslynch. Let's talk numbers. The hunter shot only kills blues. You are looking at it like town is smart enough and mafia is bad enough to not have a mafia elected. Then yes, that situation keeping the kp would be good. If one of them gets elected, then the odds of hitting blue go to 2/9. If 2 get elected then it goes to 1/9. I don't think that it is so far fetched that we elected 2 mafia. JoaTs our ghost gave all the powers to mafia. I don't think that blue kp is that strong with those low odds. I am stupid but I value being essentially confirmed town over 1 kill. You guys think Bugs is essentially confirmed town. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 14:10 yamato77 wrote: hm, maybe not his mafia filter is actually pretty decent huh? | ||
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On June 11 2015 13:48 wherebugsgo wrote: Chances are really good that mafia didn't have much time tocrealize what was going on and they couldn't save LS. They probably would have saved him if the wagon had started gaining momentum sooner To the thread. Think about how stupid this is. Let's save a guy who as town maintains his level of weird posting but when he rolls mafia he drops off significantly and just during the one game there is a big noticeable difference in his play. AND he has said before that he doesn't like rolling mafia. you are going to save a guy that is most likely going to flip and you really think people don't do vote count analysis? That they won't actually see and question anyone saving LS on D1? For one mediocre chance blue kp? People IN THIS GAME are getting shit for how they voted and we killed mafia. Damn I am so stupid. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 14:19 yamato77 wrote: I'm looking at your games to see how I should read you. You seem quite capable as mafia. I'm at a crossroads. You're definitely in the possible mafia and I don't know if I believe that you believe what you're saying or not. You sure seem convinced, but that's probably not outside your ability at this level. And I don't think you're good enough as town yet to get away from this really poor tunnel of WBG. Outside of WBG, who could be mafia to you? There's at least one more. I'm undecided on you, ShoCkeyy and The Shining. I don't think Batsnacks reads at all which makes me think of JoaT when I was certain he was mafia but turned out he was didn't care at all town. Onegu I think puts in more effort as scum. You should never town me for my activity level, tunnelness, or belief. I believed every case I brought in my mafia game except the one on Breshke. And I am certain that if I was on a mafia team with Rsoultin (my scummate) and LightningStrike in this game we would bus the shit out of him. And we would do it just like Bugs is doing. Rsoultin would be the busser and I would be midlevel but vote LS. Guaranteed. | ||
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United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 14:28 yamato77 wrote: Don't talk about WBG anymore, it's just clogging the thread with incessant arguing. If you're town, you should look into at least one other player and give a solid read. I know you think BM is town for whatever reason but what do you think about Shockey or The Shining? ShoCkeyy I like a lot more than The Shining. I will be fine killing The Shining until he try hards like I have seen him before. He can make good cases and contribute. I give him a D1 pass since I believe he doesn't find D1's useful without deaths. Even now though I think he is underperforming what I expect of him as town. | ||
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On June 11 2015 14:39 The Shining wrote: Lmao you two would rather kill me than each other. So who gets blamed for the mislynch? And who looks worse since you'd both be voting with your scumreads?  You think I would rather kill you than Bugs? What? Shining, when you turn your town light on, it's bright man. I've seen it at least twice. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 15:11 The Shining wrote: And this. You're so convinced and dead set on WBG but...every one of your other reads here is...meh. Undecided on 3 players. You don't give a read on bats, just some meta info. Same with Onegu. Please make crystal clear easily understandable reads, I'm bad at this game, treat me like it. On June 11 2015 15:04 The Shining wrote: Tube speaks in too many absolutes. BM is totes town. Bugs is scum, period. It's oddly unsettling. Couple it with being OK killing me and I'm prone to omgus. I'm not trying hard. I know I'm not trying hard. So, you admit that you aren't playing like your normal self, and are mad at me for saying so? I am currently rereading some filters of people I haven't been paying as much attention to (those I named that you call "meh" reads) and I saw towny EoD from you. I'm still thinking about everyone. The new day just started. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 15:53 The Shining wrote: No, I'm mad that you said you'd kill me for it, when Onegu and Shockeyy are also players under the radar and not playing how I've seen them play before. Inconsistency. And when have I ever been OK with being scummed or lynched as town? Like bugs brings me up as this "missing link" and now out of all the players, you're okay saying you would kill me. And you said that either after you read my filter and thought my EoD was towny so you want to kill someone with towny points, or before you read my filter, which is a very bold statement and horrible town play if you were willing to kill me before even reading. So which was it? That's totally fair. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 14:45 Tubesock wrote: You think I would rather kill you than Bugs? What? Shining, when you turn your town light on, it's bright man. I've seen it at least twice. For what it's worth, you're taking my comment harder than I intended. Of the ones I said, I can make excuses not to lynch them easier than you until these last few posts. When you motivate to turn your light on, it shines bright. And you weren't turned bright. Last time I read your filter I merely noted you didn't shine. This time, maybe my mood or something else or who knows I saw your EoD actions in a towny light and said so. Yes, obviously I am bad town. If I were good I wouldn't be in the position I am currently in. You are not getting lynched today. Relax. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 16:07 yamato77 wrote: Tubesock why are you convinced Bill is town when literally everyone else thinks he's mafia? I like Bill because of his commentary on Bugs. I don't think scum Bill Murray would act like he did all of D1. I think he would have been far more decisive and forceful as scum during the second half of the day. I don't think that he would jump off Lightningstrike if he was a teammate onto stutters like he did. I don't think Bill Murray would not have a plan on how he would conduct himself as mafia. You really think this world exists? Stutters695 (3): Tubesock, Bill Murray , LightningStrike That mafia Bill Murray would do that in an effort to save LightningStrike? Is the blue kp really that important to have all three mafia on one target? | ||
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I mean sure it's possible that we are mafia, but how would that possibly benefit us just to have both survivors under scrutiny? For 1 kp? | ||
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On June 11 2015 16:29 yamato77 wrote: As for what Bill would have done, that argument is complete WIFOM and presupposes that you have some sort of knowledge of how Bill plays scum, which I almost certainly have more of than you. I do think Bill would play like he did D1 as mafia. He was overall directionless and was playing solely to fuck up the game. He even once claimed he was requesting a replacement in the thread which is basically as low as you get in terms of faking being butthurt. As far as him having a plan, I immediately direct you to Assassination mafia where mafia BM fires a nuke only hours into D1 without consulting his team whatsoever, and then fires a second nuke at his own teammate once the first one is shot down. No, I don't think Bill has plans as scum, he just plays disruptively and tries to play off WIFOM. Seems pretty effective given you read him town for it, haha. I also do think that mafia may have at some point wanted to save LS for his KP but may have not succeeded. Like I said earlier, I don't necessarily believe you are mafia but if you were your only play is to vote against WBG so you voting with your scum team isn't all that implausible. Bill can vote wherever he pleases because no one honestly expects him as town to be all that rational and he also probably can't vote with WBG given his play throughout the day. Hmmm. He does constantly go back and forth on scumming/towning Bugs a lot. I guess I town him because I think his town comments are him being sarcastic towards Bugs and well avoiding all the attention I'm getting for pushing the most townread player in the game. Bill says multiple times about how Bugs is showcasing doing ad hominem attacks, and using logical fallacies. I agree with him, so I think he's town. /shrug | ||
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United States2726 Posts
On June 11 2015 16:37 yamato77 wrote: Ad hominem and logical fallacies are not scum tells, especially for bugs, lol. Bill focusing on such an irrelevant point is something against him in my book. From my limited experience, it is a scum tell. HolyFlare and geript did it when they were scum and when I've seen them as town they didn't at all. I understand it's a small small sample size, and won't work for everyone but that judgement is hard for me to shake. anyway, it's neither here nor there. I'm going to bed. See you guys tomorrow. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
Breshke and Yamato77Assigned votes sent. Sorry guys. | ||
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##Vote: Bill Murray | ||
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Onegu first for not claiming VT and that's hilarious. ShoCkeyy then Foot and we still have at least one more mlynch right? | ||
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United States2726 Posts
I think it would be awesome to lynch Onegu first. 1) VT claim hilarity 2) he knows his recent meta is tryish mafia and no try at all town, so this could easily actually be him changing it up. Or it's just ShoCkeyy... I'll sheep. | ||
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