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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Why are we wanting to lynch HtS btw? I had some convos with her in PMland and nothing struck me as off. here's how they went, roughtly:
Hts: Tell me about your thoughts on ExO and Kita. Kita reads town to me but I think he'd do that as scum. Exo seems town but he's fallen off. Maybe there's one scum between JAT/RSO. Also, some questions about your role.
Me: Kita's resistant to the obviously correct VA lynch means he's probably town. Even without associative tells (like the fact that there's no way scum would stick neck out to save obvious scum) his strident defense is unlikely to come from scum in general. If he's scum, lynch him later, there will be others to lynch first. Scum may shoot him or he may get checked or shot. ExO probably not scum. JAT easily could be scum, but VA and Keir are much surer things. No thoughts on rso other than that she seemed very very enthusastic in pmland, seemed legit to me. explanation of my rol ein detail.
HtS: It's N2. I'm using my power on Kita. Any actions Kita send get redirected to me. IF he fires a bullet, it hits me. If he sends a check or a save, it affects me instead. If I die, Kita was progbably scum delivering kp. ExO talked to me in pms, he's probably town. JAT, WoS, HF, just screaming about pm land. they should take part. I've told others about my plan for Kita.
Me: talking about my night action
HtS: JAT might be a good target, or snarfs, or Keir. Third party claims could be fake, maybe verify. more questions about my role.
Me: explanation of optimal use of my role
HtS: try checking Trfel or LS
Me: HAven't Vayne and Slam claimed?
HtS: I don't recall.
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On April 03 2015 02:08 Holyflare wrote:
Lynch me please otherwise you will never listen to me and lynch mafia jat and mafoa xfire.
We are not lynching this guy. I have no idea what he is doing right and mafia might have a role that needs to be voted on. He is definitely lying.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On April 03 2015 02:07 Half the Sky wrote:
BH, if you think VA is scum, do you think you can ply any potential other scummers based on his interactions/discussions about others?
That might be another avenue to wander...
If VA flips scum, it will be a good idea to look for associative tells for sure. I don't think it's good to go down that path now though, because like, let's say VA has 75% chance of being scum (with 25% being him not being checked, weird role interactions, millers, and so on). Now let's say Palmar was defending VA and we think he was trying to save a scumbuddy, so there's a 2/3rds chance Palmar is scum given that VA is scum. Now, if VA has already flipped scum, then we can say "67% chance Palmar is scum" and go for Palmar. But, right now, it's still possible VA will flip town. So we should lynch VA first.
This is what I call the "dont' draw associative tells between unflipped players" rule and basically an associative tell is rarely more accurate than the initial scumread on the first player, so you should lynch the scummy player first, have him flip, THEN do associative tells once you know what he was.
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11589 Posts
I literally don't care about the outcome of this game any longer
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
bh is also probably mafia as well
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Are you claiming to be town now or what?
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On April 03 2015 02:04 Holyflare wrote:
Just going to have to lynch me and then lynch 2 mafia then. Have fun. Don't care about trading <3
Because this post suggests it.
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On April 03 2015 02:01 Crossfire99 wrote:
Lynch HtS or HF!
See my case on HtS. Ignore the part on why kita is mafia because it doesn't matter for what I said about her.
Also, HF is lying because I told him specifically what my power was and he lied about it. Also he never poisoned me.
But that was your whole case? That she was mafia because of how she interacted with kita.
And that marv called her scummy in the early part day 1 I guess. There's been a lot of game since day 1, though. What makes you so sure that he was right?
On April 03 2015 00:48 Crossfire99 wrote:
What changed is that I had a chance to reread filters of 100% confirmed townies who are now dead. You know when you don't have a strong impression either way on someone, and when someone tells you how they are reading someone it colors how you read them? When you explained why you thought she was town, I reread her, but what you said was in my head, so I read her as town. I reread her now with what dead confirmed townies think of her and it's enough for me to change my mind and consider her as a potential lynch target. Honestly, I'm ultimately still up in the air about her, but I'd put her in the will potentially lynch category.
Also, the bolded part doesn't ring very true.
My exact words to you were "I looked back at HtS today and I think she might be town. Her filter looks pretty okay except for the second guessing herself all the time."
That doesn't look like a glowing recommendation that should color your read very much?
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HF there is no way you OR one of me and crossfire gets lynched today without you explaining what you are talking about.
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On April 03 2015 02:29 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2015 02:01 Crossfire99 wrote:
Lynch HtS or HF!
See my case on HtS. Ignore the part on why kita is mafia because it doesn't matter for what I said about her.
Also, HF is lying because I told him specifically what my power was and he lied about it. Also he never poisoned me. But that was your whole case? That she was mafia because of how she interacted with kita. And that marv called her scummy in the early part day 1 I guess. There's been a lot of game since day 1, though. What makes you so sure that he was right? Show nested quote +On April 03 2015 00:48 Crossfire99 wrote:
What changed is that I had a chance to reread filters of 100% confirmed townies who are now dead. You know when you don't have a strong impression either way on someone, and when someone tells you how they are reading someone it colors how you read them? When you explained why you thought she was town, I reread her, but what you said was in my head, so I read her as town. I reread her now with what dead confirmed townies think of her and it's enough for me to change my mind and consider her as a potential lynch target. Honestly, I'm ultimately still up in the air about her, but I'd put her in the will potentially lynch category.
Also, the bolded part doesn't ring very true. My exact words to you were "I looked back at HtS today and I think she might be town. Her filter looks pretty okay except for the second guessing herself all the time." That doesn't look like a glowing recommendation that should color your read very much?
It's how her read changed on kita with no explanation whatsoever. She said she was always suspicious of him, but she never said anything indicating that at all. She only called him town or agreed with his case on BH or whatever. She just comes in today saying to vote him and claims that she was suspicious of him from the beginning. I used the fact that marv also noticed her weird town view of kita immediately to show that her view on kita changed unnaturally. It from definitely town like an assumption and backed that up to now all of a sudden it is scum.
As for my quotes. Yeah those were your exact words, but that thinking she might be town was more than I had at the time. So I when I read her with that in mind, I was like I can see her as town. But then I reread like I said and found all the stuff I wrote in my case.
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On April 03 2015 00:33 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2015 17:29 Alakaslam wrote:
Now time to side with the beast in hopes he won't kill me
I know I h8 u all right now
But
U save me
And I may have to townsided to wincon for period
So
I am gonna get hit with 2KP
You save me and I can rain rayn shit on whoever you want me to
Because really, can I actually use it for scum? lol XD I don't thin any faction would waste some kind of protection on you slam. You fucked over town and I bet scum does not want you in the game either.
You haven't played paladin's quest
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
so we're talking about HtS changing her mind on Kita right? cause from what I can tell she changed her mind overnight not today
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On April 02 2015 06:59 kitaman27 wrote:
Leaning Mafia
batsnacks - I honestly can't remember a game where I've read him as town, but I still think he is mafia. Shows no willingness to cooperate in PM land. In the thread, he doesn't have any town tells. He is going after easy targets, that a lot of other people would consider 50/50 coinflip reasons. Seems like he is picking the side of the coin he wants to view things as.
Sepulchre - He goes out of his way to tell me that he spent his entire day on xfire post flip analysis and how it is all wasted. Seems like it may be a situation where he is trying to push the idea that he couldn't possibly have known that xfire wasn't actually mafia (if xfire is indeed not actually mafia).
VayneAuthority - Claims a plansewalker role similar to Hapa, but only reveals two roles. I questioned the claim because it didn't make sense, especially compared to Hapa's flip. He explains there was a third role, but it is a "passive that he doesn't know how it works so he can't share". That seems pretty sketchy especially because he was withholding that part upon first claiming. I didn't like how he posted how I was 100% town and "I thought kita had a brain but apparently he is brainwashed too" when I first suggested how he likely had more than two roles. He changed his tune when I provided evidence that he had more than two. A lot of this comes down to whether or not marv actually checked him. It's annoying that marv didn't take advantage of PMs to reveal his target to his number one town read.
batsnacks: could be mafia. Seems almost to brazen though. Him giving scumreads and besides that not giving a fact is generally towny.
Sepulchre: This comment about crossfire is the main reason I am hesitant about scumreading him. I don't know if he is good enough to fake this.
On April 01 2015 08:21 Sepulchre wrote:
What?
I suppose this is a thing.
Just as a note, VayneAuthority's vote counted double, so did one of the people on VayneAuthority.
Silver lining is that Crossfire99 either didn't use his additional lynch power or if he did then on somebody who didn't vote yet, something less to worry about as well.
Also filter length alone is not a good argument for him to be scum because his town filter in JOAT is also incredibly short.
VA: I agree with everything you say. And it is really annoying. It really boils down to the fact if marv checked him or not unfortunately because if marv did not check him he is most likely town due to additional information I have.
If we ignore the checks I would probably lynch him if only because marv was pretty confident about scumreading him.
I already commented on the 3p claims.
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On April 03 2015 02:09 Damdred wrote:
HF will you give me a hint ?
When are you leaving?
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On April 03 2015 01:59 Blazinghand wrote:
I'm from the government and I'm here to help
so what are we thinking today guys? any reason to not lynch VA?
Hi there
I happen to be a more sure fire lynch frankly. I am so moody about my 90% guaranteed loss, due to my rampant incompetence (my wincon is seriously not hard) I will probably bomb town, and so it's in your best interests to lynch me.
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On April 03 2015 02:15 yamato77 wrote:
I literally don't care about the outcome of this game any longer
Well then you're probably town 
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On April 03 2015 02:47 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2015 01:59 Blazinghand wrote:
I'm from the government and I'm here to help
so what are we thinking today guys? any reason to not lynch VA? Hi there I happen to be a more sure fire lynch frankly. I am so moody about my 90% guaranteed loss, due to my rampant incompetence (my wincon is seriously not hard) I will probably bomb town, and so it's in your best interests to lynch me.
what exactly is your wincon Slam
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On April 03 2015 02:47 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2015 01:59 Blazinghand wrote:
I'm from the government and I'm here to help
so what are we thinking today guys? any reason to not lynch VA? Hi there I happen to be a more sure fire lynch frankly. I am so moody about my 90% guaranteed loss, due to my rampant incompetence (my wincon is seriously not hard) I will probably bomb town, and so it's in your best interests to lynch me.
What exactly is your wincon? Either lynching glados or outlasting the Knight?
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On April 03 2015 02:49 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2015 02:47 Alakaslam wrote:On April 03 2015 01:59 Blazinghand wrote:
I'm from the government and I'm here to help
so what are we thinking today guys? any reason to not lynch VA? Hi there I happen to be a more sure fire lynch frankly. I am so moody about my 90% guaranteed loss, due to my rampant incompetence (my wincon is seriously not hard) I will probably bomb town, and so it's in your best interests to lynch me. What exactly is your wincon? Either lynching glados or outlasting the Knight?
jynx! *blushes*
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
you will never be free of the mental image now JAT
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EPT
