EPTTL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 55
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On April 04 2015 22:42 Damdred wrote: This just reads to believable and to sincere to me. Art what do you think? I know LS is scum hre and I need to go check his other games but this just seems like he believes the claim 100%. I'm not sure if mafia LS reacts in this way to mafia Oneg claiming mason? I'm actually inclined to agree with this. This is how scumLS responded to scumGeript claiming vig in JOAT: On March 05 2015 12:33 LightningStrike wrote: I'm back and sicklucker is fighting Breshke instead of the other cell mates o.o Also Geript being mad at Kita too and Tube fighting Geript this is interesting stuff going on here and personally I never played in a Cell Setup before so this interesting. Also Geript claimed he got Vig powers and claimed to had shot Sep but yet Sep survived so most likely Ninja in Sep if what Geript was saying is true. I will admit I guarded the Button since we don't know what the button does I thought it was safe play since it kind of like the presents in Carol where we gotten random Presents 1 from a Mass Murderer when unwraped instant kill the person 1 with a Cop power for the Night and 1 with a Vig Shot for the Night and since it prob pure rng what we get I really don't want to give Mafia extra powers or extra powers for ninjas either and weighed it in myself and decided to guard the button. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
FINAL WILL I don't exactly know yet where I'll end up at the time of writing. I'm going to be re-evaluating my re-evaluations a little bit here, then give players points based on what speaks in favour of them and what's going against them, then rate them on my townie scale from 1-10. + Show Spoiler [Toadesstern] + First reason for townreading Toad is his interactions with Palmar. Out of the gates, Palmar started with "Kill Toad" and actually seriously attacked him for the way he used "Guyses" in his post. It's possible that Palmar busses, but he has a strong tendency not to, and the way he's gone about scumreading Toad, then backing off on him, then scumreading him again later and tried to lynch him up until the BM lynch came about. Toad has also gone after palmar hard + Show Spoiler [example] + On March 20 2015 01:25 Toadesstern wrote: Did you copy & paste that from someone out of Hammertime? Sure as hell feels like it... There were plenty of people who said exactly the same after Palmar ruined the thread... like how I'm fluffy and useless and they expected me to do more and I ended up getting lynched for it, which you know about as a host. I let go of Palmar for a second because SL sounded really bad. If you look at my filter you even see me going back and forth about SL, how I mention that the emoticon read is bullshit because all it does is show that he's an unintential liar no matter of alignment. And if it was unintentional no matter of alignment it's not alignment indicative, it just shows that he's a liar. And a bad player. Seems like lynchbait to me and I apologize for going after him. I should have been smarter than to let myself get fooled by people saying he's stupid and therefore mafia even if it only lasted for about an hour. I got back on Palmar because he's mafia and like I said, I lost the last games because I was too carefree as town and didn't manage to get the weight of my reads explained resulting in people not lynching mafia even after I got killed first cycle like 4 times in a row statint who's mafia and who's not. So yeah, making sure people read it. IF I AM ALREADY DEAD AND YOU'RE READING THIS BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TROUGH MY FILTER AGAIN, MESSAGE FROM THE PAST: LYNCH PALMAR I'LL KICK YOU IN THE DICK POSTGAME IF YOU DON'T I think that should do the trick of making sure what I consider to be important after I flip funny how you mentioned how it's important to look at peoples reasoning and not just at the result just recently. But that doesn't matter if you like the results I take it? Also I know, you're going to call me mafia for "ignoring" Rayn and going after my own read instead. Also I know, you're going to call me mafia for not going after my own reads enough. You've been doing that all game long now even if I showed you that everything Palmar and you said about me is just factually incorrect Second thing that makes Toad town is obviously his Vig CC. Vivax claimed vig and Toad is instantly skeptical: On March 21 2015 05:04 Toadesstern wrote: Drax the vig, the easiest role in the game to fakeclaim as mafia. Who would have though. Really convenient, isn't it? He waits to see what happens. Damdred unvotes, other people are also skeptical of claiming our unCCed vigi and Toad hardclaims vig. On March 21 2015 05:16 Toadesstern wrote: You guys are a bunch of idiots. I'm Drax myself. Hence my vehement opposition to him claiming vig... Vivax is lying. There is absolutely no way we have two fucking Drax in the game. No way If Toad is mafia, he's sacrificing himself for a Vivax mislynch. He made the decision in about 12 minutes, so it's unlikely this was a pre-planned idea. At face value, CCing a town vig as scum is a terrible idea as you're likely to get a 1 for 1 trade at best. The play doesn't make sense for mafia to do. There is a little thing that worries me about Toad: His flip on Vivax. Toad was just as convinced that Vivax was a good lynch as I was up until deadline and the way he strongly pushed it made me feel he definitely believed in it as well, but the fact that he shot VE over Vivax is worrying because there is strong mafia motivation for it. This is how certain he was moments after the flip: On March 21 2015 08:27 Toadesstern wrote: You have been throwing shit at me for the last 5-6 hours before deadline being the biggest hypocrite I've ever seen. That's not just you being a hypocrite that's you throwing shit because you're going down (at that time) hoping that something will stick. Go back to page... I think 118, the one with the red letters about your different standards depending on wether or not it fits you. You claimed Vig. I am a TownVig. I would have said you're like 90% certain mafia before the claims. With the claim it's just really 99% certain. Too unlikely to happen. And the 1% was me admittting that you could be a fakeclaiming VT or different PR trying to get out of the lynch. You even got me to CC and I'll be RB'ed now because of you... and you're not even dead Which as the night goes on decreases in certainty, until eventually on D2 On March 22 2015 09:21 Toadesstern wrote: which is kind of my point of calling it useless. Yes they might have joined random wagons but there's no mafiaagenda behind why they joined it if it literally didn't matter to them because all 3 were town. not really... I mean it depends. It just makes no sense no matter how I look at it right now. This is where he indicates he came around to Vivax. He had been very certain of Vivax during the night still, stating there was like a 1% chance he was going to flip town and fakeclaimed and none that he flipped vigi. I know Toad explained that it was because I believe Eden (or HF?) told him to shoot VE, but meh. Continuing on with reasons I think he's town: His reads completely coincided with mine at about the same timing. On March 22 2015 09:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Toadesstern Rsoultin FecalFeast Vivax Eden1892 Damdred Trfel Onegu I'm starting to like my PoE list. On March 22 2015 10:03 Toadesstern wrote: we're running out of people that can be mafia here. That's a good thing though! thoughts on where you disagree? ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/toNtIXB.png) Be happy I made Vivax from KILL IT WITH FIRE to null. My ego isn't able to cope with more than that right now Slam I think looks really bad atm, especially if you think Vivax was town who got roleblocked and should probably be the next lynch after LS. Exo still looks bad imo. I know you guys disagree with my Palmar read but that's still a thing. I changed him back to orange because the entire theory with Palmar swapping around from Vivax to BM to save Vivax doesn't work anymore. Breshke I still havn't bothered to read. Rayn I feel like shouldn't be a topic right now with all the possible assumptions going on until we at least have an LS flip. anything you disagree with or want to chime in? I agreed exactly with all his town+ reads. Only reason he didn't have Vivax as greener was that his ego couldn't handle it. Dick move Analysis addition - I personally never keep notes as mafia but do as town so I think it also makes Toad more likely to be town for actually keeping notes like this Following this post, he's eagerly working to help solve the game. There's also a few quirky things that I wouldn't expect Mafia Toad to make like: On March 22 2015 10:53 Toadesstern wrote: go read Breshke and tell me what you think of him in the next 24 hours if you want to help. I'm very likely to either not read him at all and tell you so or lie to you and tell you I've read his filter while just banking on a gutread on him Analysis like this also helps: On March 23 2015 09:47 Toadesstern wrote: yeah but again, look at where we were at that time: Rayn was about to get lynched at that time. So you're saying it's a move to kill himself while making Onegu not look bad? I don't know about you, but after Onegu's claim that Rayn was mason with him I townread both of Onegu+Rayn heavily. maybe not as heavy as Onegu on his own but still. At least wouldn't he just shut up as mafia if they're together until the day is over, especially if he's supposedly the RB?  Basically he's keeping up very well with the thread and is attempting to solve the game. Despite the one point I raised, I feel confident in calling Toad town. If he's mafia, then he's played a great game and I'm fine with losing to him. I will not be re-evaluating him barring extreme circumstances. Additionally to this, Rayn also went after Toad pretty hard. There is actually a thought that troubles me though: Presume scum Toad yolocced vigi to get Vivax lynched. Toad has a history of fakeclaiming (LI never forget). He figures he might be able to get away with it, but the scumteam gets mad and starts bussing him harder than before (Both Rayn/Palmar were bussing him long before this). They figure that once Vivax dies Toad is in massive shit. However, with a BM flip the whole vigi situation would persist. This would explain why scum wanted to switch to BM when they got the opportunity. ++++ Reads overlapped with me a lot throughout the day. Lots of coinciding thought processes. +++ Palmar bussing him from the get-go when Palmar doesn't bus very regularly. ++ Vig CC + Confidence - Yolo theory makes a certain amount of sense for Toad -- Why shoot VE when he wasn't a scumread? Townie scale: 9/10 + Show Spoiler [Trfel] + First reason is a tone thing. On March 19 2015 10:03 Trfel wrote: Like Superbia said, it would really be nice to know how many mafia are in this game. Is it 4 or 5? Does Mafia really make a point of asking this again after someone's already asked it? It's just so tonally weird that I find it hard to imagine Mafia doing it. It would've been a lot stronger if Superbia flipped mafia, but I feel it's still a towntell. Second thing I notice is confidence. On March 19 2015 09:43 Trfel wrote: You probably think I'm scum because: 1. I'm ignoring the entire thread, and instead being useless and distracting the people who are playing the game properly. This is valid. 2. If you have a reason to scumread me other than that, I think it's terrible? Are you thinking of meta based on my opening in Student Mafia V? For the record, I've only skimmed the game so far, I haven't read it in detail at all. This post also feels very town from a tonal point of view. "Scumreading me for these reasons is okay, scumreading me for anything else is terrible." It showcases a confidence that I don't think Trfel is the type to fake. Also not attempting to bury people who have flipped town: On March 19 2015 11:03 Trfel wrote: You asked for an answer twice, so I provided one. Eden isn't a moron, I'm sure that if he actually is scum, he would say the same thing. And I have two other reasons to say that this isn't a scumslip. 1. Look at Eden's tone. By saying the specific name of the miller, he shows that he's read the first page to find out what the miller is, which contains the phrase You are not aware. So, it's extremely unlikely that Eden didn't know that the miller was unaware. Furthermore, if he wanted to claim as scum, he would have said straight-out that he is claiming, not this indirect reference. Thus, I'm inclined to think that Eden is joking. 2. Eden townread rsoultin very strongly, and very early in the game. And he did this knowing that he wouldn't be able to provide good reasons for it, much less explain this read to the thread. I don't really see why mafia!Eden would want to do this. Doesn't bury Slam: On March 19 2015 12:58 Trfel wrote: One thing that makes Alakaslam suspicious is that he does seem fairly defensive early on. But I don't necessarily think that makes him mafia here? In Down Under 2, Alakaslam was wagoned for most of Day 1, but never actually defended himself. He was scum. Perhaps aggressively defending himself is a sign of being town? And I am well aware that I am both ignoring and using meta on Alakaslam simultaneously. Deal with it. Then there's obviously his orb claim, tracking a mafia LS. Since we know Palmar was part of the mafia team, unless mafia believed that Rayn was indeed a tracker (in which case Ritoky is town), I doubt they'd be worried about a track and would simply let Palmar take the credit. Trfel's not known for having the strongest scumgame and I don't think they would sacrifice LS just for his cred. At this point, I'm happy to call Trfel town and resign to losing the game if he is not. Since then, Trfel has claimed to be Veteran, and he feels extremely disconnected from the thread. I don't like how he mentioned how "Ritoky or Fecalfeast is the lynch tomorrow" when Ritoky had literally claimed scum. His veteran claim was a little odd, but he has proven that he was breadcrumbing it for a while which means that either it was a long, long pre-planned move, or it was town breadcrumbing. I actually think it's really unlikely for mafia to fakeclaim vet here, especially planning it this far ahead. Damdred mentioned a few points regarding Trfel's weird blue post and his reads constantly changing, but I think that's more likely to come from a town Trfel than a scum Trfel. If his post regarding the blues was made to breadcrumb his vet role I can see that being true pretty easily. +++ Tracking LS +++ Vet Claim + Confidence earlier in the game + Tone -- Disconnected from the thread in recent times 8.5/10 Townie rating Not gonna go over SL since he's pretty much confirmed in my eyes and I don't have a lot of time already. 10/10 BNTownie rating + Show Spoiler [Damdred] + Oh boy, let's kick this shit off. Damdred + Show Spoiler + Activity Mafia: Imperial: 26/510 pages pages, D6 -> 5% Titanic: 2 pages, 1 cycle -> unreliable but low Town: Void: 11/146 pages, D3 -> 7.5% Linux: 10/130 pages, N1 -> 7.6% Horn of Africa: 9/118 (at that time) pages, D1 -> 7.6% Slytherin: 18/135 pages, D3 -> 13.3% This game: 20/408 pages -> 4.9% Two sidenotes to this: 1. Imperial and LXX are simply a ton spammier than the town games he's played. 2. Damdred's already said before the game he'd be afk for large amounts of time (first post in filter). Meta Mafia I read Damdred's Titanic game where he replaced into Breshke's slot as scum. What I noticed here were three things: Damdred doesn't push his suspects that hard as mafia. Damdred had reads earlier on that he never got back to (could be simply because he didn't spend much time ingame) Damdred claims Rsoultin has a strong read on her, and she does on him. In Imperial, Damdred asked a lot of questions that didn't really do anything like these: + Show Spoiler [quotes] + On January 01 2015 02:27 Damdred wrote: Since you aren't in the mood to lynch geript today, are you going to try to push robik down the lynch today? Or just trying to get him to do stuff On January 01 2015 02:30 Damdred wrote: Then why aren't you voting him? All of this push and you aren't voting? On January 01 2015 09:52 Damdred wrote: @DrH don't think i forgot about you i'm working on it while I talk to GB. @GB, what do you think about it do you feel like he was blue fishing making a joke? On January 02 2015 11:40 Damdred wrote: SL what about the framer and millers? Do you think mafia really reacts the way that he did here? This is just a small grasp of the questions that don't lead anywhere he asks. He makes many. Summarizing Mafia meta: Less posty, engages his scumread a lot, useless questions, forgetful. Town: First thing I notice is how Damdred talks with confidence and goes in against Gobble's read on Rayn hard and with confidence. He's generally quite confident. On February 08 2015 12:52 Damdred wrote: Errr rayn actually looks really town? What else do you have for what's been going on On February 08 2015 14:01 Damdred wrote: Right now your posts are weird you cast shadows without conclusions in your posts On February 09 2015 12:57 Damdred wrote: I don't think you got the point at all. Posting less has nothing to do with what I said at all. Furthermore, Damdred's scumread on Gobble leads him to push the lynch and push it hard and doesn't let go. In Horn of Africa, Damdred was a strong suspect on D1 and it made him post a lot. In this game, he was also really sure of Rsoultin being scum and pushed her hard. Summarizing Town meta: Confidence, pushing the lynches he wants hard. Questions also tend to be much more directed and reads oriented. This game One thing to note is that Rsoultin has had a townread on Damdred from the start. She's also kept dropping reasons for them/things she expects town Damdred to do. First thing that worries me in his filter is this: On March 20 2015 07:11 Damdred wrote: I think ff case is good, and the points brought are decent. Like I do think it's bad LS is being lazy a bit here as has been pointed out I'm not sure it's worth a vote but it's something to think about Damdred likes FF's case on LS, says it's something to think about.. then doesn't really think about it until he makes his big VCA post. (Intermezzo Vivax theory: A FF/Damdred bus on LS would make sense, especially if it was the plan for D2 but got trifled by Trfel checking him before it happened) What also bothers me in hindsight is that his case on Vivax wasn't followed by a vote and a push. In his town games, he kept repeating "Gobble is scum" or "Rso is scum". This game, Damdred does not seem as sold on Vivax being scum where he usually has been as town. Then the first big VCA post. I still really like it and I think it's a strong argument for a town Damdred. All of his reads read genuine to me, are developed well (though townreading FF, Palmar and Breshke worries me, I can see the motivation for FF at that juncture in any case, and Breshke's scumgames do look pretty terrible so I can't blame him there either but Palmar was really questionable) The biggest problem with his reads is that they've been very wrong. TR on Palmar, scum on Exo, Slam, and Superbia means that it definitely could've been made from a scum perspective. There's one thing that stands out to me in his reads post, I'm not sure what people think about it: This leaves me in a world where I have two mafia or one depending on setup between Superbia, Trfel and Artanis. I'm just wondering if it's something Mafia or Town would add in. Mafia might be worried about TMI; they would've read the questions Superbia and Trfel asked and it could be in their heads "don't betray how many mafia there are". Something to consider. I also really hate this post: On March 22 2015 02:47 Damdred wrote: Shoot like Exo and Trfel/Artanis Gives us the most information Damdred scumreads Slam/Exo/Superbia/LS, yet calls for the shot to be between Exo and Trfel/Me. What's really weird about this is that Slam is probably the least likely to confirm himself as town, and remain unreadable forever. The fact that Damdred softpushed for a shot on me is not good. The biggest problem for me in Damdred's filter is that besides those two posts, he's not really doing anything.. He isn't pushing his scumreads. He isn't really engaging anyone, just posting oneliners. Also On March 25 2015 11:26 Damdred wrote: I kinda want to lynch breske This kinda came out of nowhere as Damdred had been townreading Breshke a few times already before. It bothers me that I don't know why Damdred thinks Breshke is scum at this juncture because usually Damdred is very clear about who he wants to lynch and pushes it hard. Then there's his second VCA, which mostly concludes that scum wanted to lynch BM over Vivax since Palmar made the late switch (if this is the case, Mafia know about it anyway so it's an easy point to make) and then goes into the reasons for why they would or wouldn't switch to BM, but he doesn't really base his conclusions on them. It feels more like he had his conclusions already ready (in his townreads) and simply found another narrative to tell them. Conclusion Honestly, there's a lot of things that really worry me about this Damdred. He's showing scumtraits in that he hasn't really cared about who gets lynched, hasn't really appeared to be confident and I don't get where his read progression on Breshke came from when I usually have no problem following Damdred's thoughts. What still gives me pause is that he's never made these kinds of big cases/VCA's as scum, and that they're really hard to fabricate. I also know Damdred hates playing scum so from that perspective I find it unlikely he'd put this much effort into it, but I'm just not sure on him. I don't know what to think about Damdred. So I was pretty conflicted on Damdred, but I'm pretty sure at this point that he's town. Toad made a good point in that Mafia Damdred probably doesn't push the notion that both vigis are town. He also pointed out that Damdred's been pretty confident in points, but most of all I just don't think scum Damdred could pull the rabbit out of his arse that he's been pulling this last day and post this god damn much as scum like ever. +++++ Activity/motivation boost +++ Long cases/analysis ++ Effort/Confidence - Read progression on Breshke - Hasn't really cared about who gets lynched Townie scale: 9/10 Which means I'm once again left with Fecal and Onegu, which bothers me a little bit because both Fecal and Onegu have done things that I find difficult to consider for scum. Onegu I'm not quite that familiar with reading Onegu. I believe he's rolled scum a lot and he seems to be more comfortable with it than with town from what I've heard. This game I'm finding him not very useful. He doesn't really seem to be digging underneath the surface, going for whatever seems most obvious to him at the time. He simply decides that the setup can't contain that many blues and goes after the first blue that claims without investigating. I'm not sure if this is alignment indicative for him, but yeah. It bothers me even more so considering the fact that he's now going after claimed blues, yet he kept the charade of him being a mason on as long as possible. What speaks in favour of Onegu being town is LS's interactions, but the only thing I have to compare it with is the way he replied to Geript's claim at the time. A sample size of one is not enough as it could be that this plan was more clearly communicated in the scumqt. The HF shot also didn't need to be motivated by him being a mason, his play was reason enough. Onegu's also commented on my Trfel towncase without really going anywhere with it, then agreed with me to look into Damdred but barely bothered. The last person who barely bothered flipped scum and I'm finding little reason to presume Onegu won't himself. ++ Carefree attitude + LS seemingly believing his claim + Hopped onto LS when his wagon was picking up steam --- Mason claim that unclaimed only when he had no choice --- Superficial argumentation -- Doesn't really seem to be doing anything, pretty opportunistic - Intensely wrong Townie Scale: 3/10 Fecalfeast Fecalfeast is the toughest one to figure out. He's made a case on scum LS, but he didn't really push for it even when the wagon got on steam. However, he's been extremely active and motivated in the last few days, and this motivation is something I often contribute to town. He has this magic ability that makes everyone think he's town at EoD by being so god damn carefree as well as caring about who gets lynched rather than it just being anyone but himself. What does bother me about his recent play is how he says Toad is the sleeper scum, then never makes a case for him yet continues to defend himself in ways that are unconfirmable for any of us. He also spends a lot of time telling the thread how town he is. +++ Activity and motivation ++ Case on scum LS + Tone reads pretty townie --- Analysis often seems fairly superficial (e.g. his LS filter connections) and doesn't really factcheck stuff -- Seems more concerned with defending himself in ways that don't really help over finding the 'sleeper scum' -- Everyone else just seems townier than him Townie Scale: 5/10 I still think the lynches should be Onegu, then FecalFeast, with an outside scenario of Trfel but I don't really see it. What's changed is that Damdred is now at Toad's level for me, maybe even higher because there is the tin foil hat scenario I've mentioned for Toad that I don't believe exists for Damdred in the same way, as Damdred's activity this cycle is something I believe he literally couldn't do as scum. I'm most certain of Onegu being scum, with Fecal being second not just because of his own play, but simply because everyone else just seems townier. If I survive to tomorrow, I'd look into him with more detail and check out his meta and stuff but I don't really have the time to do so. Lynch Onegu, then Fecalfeast. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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On April 05 2015 07:53 Damdred wrote: Trfel just reads so weird to me, look how he keeps saying rit shoud be the lynch and backing off. That is like so weird I just don't think it's a scum kind of weird. Yeah, Rito flipped scum but why would scum Trfel handle him in this way? | ||
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On April 05 2015 07:57 Damdred wrote: Because getting Rito through 2 cycles is godly and forced us into 3 lynches needed n a row That's results oriented. I just don't think he'd be bringing him up at all like that, or he'd find reasons to townread him or something like that if he were scum. Also, there's just so many other things that point to Trfel being town. | ||
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On April 06 2015 10:31 Damdred wrote: The worst parts were I kept mentioning the maybe and the townies told me to stop being stupid lol. Its fine trfel I knew you didn't read anything I was posting during the night or day. I actually detailed out the Toad yolo plan in my will post but ended up giving him a 9/10 townie rating anyway  | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On April 06 2015 12:09 Vivax wrote: To Toad: I will post this whenever people call tinfoil on me  And I'll make sure to post this; On March 22 2015 23:44 Vivax wrote: Yeah? Read Artanis in Imperial. I'm not making the same mistake twice. On March 22 2015 23:57 Vivax wrote: Cause I don't believe that rayn's D1 play was mafia motivated. Whereas I have every reason to believe Artanis' was ever since he jumped on that case of yours in unisono with LS On March 23 2015 01:58 Vivax wrote: If you are town and townread Artanis I strongly urge you to rethink your position given that two dead townies and me and rayn all suspect him. You may think highly of your play but straight out ignoring so many people with probably more experience than you is really stupid. At the very least if you are a supporter of that position it is your task to find arguments for it instead of lazily putting him into a list cause activity. I still have to see an argument that goes beyond "he's active or trying to solve the game" whereas multiple arguments for him being mafia have been presented from the aforementioned players. On March 25 2015 01:19 Vivax wrote: Anyway I don't plan on discussing him with you cause you're scum Arty. "Fecal could be scum but I cba to say why and I don't bother finding out" "I posted some Wifom stuff from a flipped scum that doesn't tell me anything but I posted it anyway" ![[image loading]](http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/x/tin-foil-6631540.jpg) It's easy to be right once when you accuse half the game. | ||
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