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On January 09 2015 03:51 Tubesock wrote:
I didn't think Trfel was townreading The Shining or LightningStrike until about 3 times of rereading his filter. Did you guys think that he was not scumming them?
Is my thinking bad to believe that we could not have had 2 mafia on 3 wagons on Day 1? It's possible sure, but really? I get the argument that if BOTH LS and Shining are mafia that Trfel is a good NK. If none or one of them are mafia, I have a really hard time they wouldn't kill Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_.
Can more people talk to me about this? If you can't tell, I'm pretty dense and stubborn. I need more than one person to say this is a crackpot idea.
Honestly I get the impression either way is possible because my impression is that its a disruptive kill. I'm pretty sure one of LS and Shining is mafia and I really doubt both of them are. The thing is that a Trfel NK can have two effects. One is as we discussed before (reducing interest in both) and the other is the precise opposite (increasing interest in both); which would set the town arguing in circles over two people, one of whom is mafia. The trick now is to work out which of these is true.
A kill on a strong person against them would only intensify the interest against them. At least it'd make me more interested in them, I'm not sure how other people would read it. Personally I'm inclined to believe that at least one of them is mafia and this was a deliberate attempt to sow confusion. I would then expect them to get on board with a town lynch wagon for D2 in order to hide amongst the votes. Of course that's what a townie might do too so its not alignment indicative but its a perfect way to hide.
Its not a crackpot idea but I don't think its the only interpretation here.
-Celestial- - You mentioned you had no idea how the wagon started and got momentum. I haven't seen you pursue that just yet. I probably missed it, can you let me know what you've learned?
Well I've not really had a chance to dive it in too much detail but as far as I can tell it was something like this:
rsoultin attempted to force WW to post something...anything (this we know already). Personally I was inclined to agree with the scum assessment early but as WW actually started posting the lynch just started to feel wrong.
After that initial post LS was quick to park his vote there too. Then Silver just sheeped rsoultin on the basis of lurking. As far as I can tell nobody actually QUESTIONED it until WW actually came back. LS posted asking for other people's views of other people's comments but that was about it and it was around this time that LS had his little panicky period with softclaiming.
Then WW finally posted, putting his suspicions on rsoultin, Trfel and LS whilst citing Silver and Tube as mafia. Shortly after this LS then hardclaims VT in an apparent panic over nonexistent pressure.
Then we got into the whole nonsense of rsoultin building a clear case on Shining but not following through with it. rsoultin has claimed since then it was just because of the lack of votes on Shining, which I could go either way on (could be honest, could be shenanigans).
rsoultin went off after leaving her vote on WW but Trfel came in with his switch to Shining after putting a valid reason for not liking LS much either but preferring Shining. He'd originally voted LS and still felt pretty strongly negative on LS but preferred the Shining wagon.
After the blue claim both you, tube, and LS stayed on WW. But pointing fingers is pointless because a bunch of people clearly made mistakes at that point. jarjar was on Shining very late in the day which left very, very little time for any kind of attempt to save WW unfortunately (note that until WW had jarjar on him it was 5v2 and would have taken two people actively voting for WW to save him, this was the case until only 10 minutes before the EoD).
Actually...looking back...this makes LS look REALLY bad.
At the moment I'm still inclined to go with the Shining wagon. The arguments from rsoultin still largely hold up despite my own suspicions on rsoultin...but since nobody else apart from jarjar is apparently feeling anything from rsoultin I have to conclude I might be wrong there. The blatant attempts to misrepresent me by ExO here almost make me want to vote him but I'm not going to do that because it'd pretty much be just because of OMGUS now I've let my indignation cool a little I think it may just be because he's overlooking stuff.
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EBWOP: I mean I could be missing stuff here. I've just gone over my notes really quickly and done a quick bit of filter diving on that whole period so something may have slipped under my radar.
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On January 09 2015 04:23 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 04:05 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 02:11 ExO_ wrote:On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read. If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you. You are lying and I can prove it.On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly....
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...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.
Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me. Except you just explicitly quoted me expressing doubt and highlighting him by saying I wasn't sure what to make of him. He posted AFTER I posted leading to my later comment about how I'd liked his post which put me off his scent. But that does NOT wipe out the fact I was originally dubious of his posting. You're misrepresenting me AGAIN here. Point out the lie. I mean really... On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again.
Oh really? On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.
I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.
At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes: On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it
. You finally go back on to LS with: On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations.
But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more . Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post:: On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote:+ Show Spoiler +I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post: On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being.
Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town.
Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky.
Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions.
Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game.
sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town.
meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum.
alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions.
Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do.
kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him
rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :|
Look Familiar? HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him. So you're just going to straight up ignore this? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=21#412LS straight up claimed VT with zero pressure on him. AFTER my last reply to you, which influenced me to doubt him again. So once again you are completely misrepresenting the situation. So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:
Liars should be lynched
People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.
##Vote: Celestial I've just demonstrated I was dubious of LS on my initial impressions which was then improved by his later post (notice that it was an EDIT which brought that back), knocked back again by what you posted, redeemed by him demonstrating similar play in later games and then brought down somewhat again by his panicky claim. THIS is the factual story rather than the narrative you're making up and is what I was pointing out in my earlier reply. I was never happy with WW's posting but it was not enough to lynch but nor was it enough to encourage people not to lynch, which I've already explained multiple times to the point I'm getting tired of pointing it out. Its like banging my head against a goddamn wall. If I've been "generally agreeable" then I wouldn't be repeatedly sticking my neck out by being ever suspicious of the motives of rsoultin considering virtually everyone else has been apparently townreading her to date. Honestly, this is absurd. You are intentionally and very deliberately misrepresenting everything I've said so far and flat out making up a timeline of events to support your story. Frankly I question your motivations here. I had you down for town but now you're making a hell of an effort to twist the order of events to suit yourself. I claimed VT because I thought I was getting lynched and claimed there simple as that. I had the majority of the votes at the time I claimed VT.
On January 09 2015 04:54 LightningStrike wrote:
Celestial did you not see the vote count at the time I claimed VT? Ya the majority was on me not WW. Ofc I would claim if I had the majority of the votes a couple hours before being lynched.
As far as I can tell this an outright LIE. When you "softclaimed" you had two votes on you, which was more than anyone else (but only by 1 vote). And you staying that way was contingent on you not providing me with any evidence to the contrary, which you did not long after which got my vote off you.
But when you claimed VT you did NOT have the majority.
PROOF!
Here is your VT claim:
On January 07 2015 05:12 LightningStrike wrote:I'm Vanilla Town this game I wish I was a Cop to redeem myself from Campus Mafia 
Votes:
On January 07 2015 05:07 kitaman27 wrote:
Day 1 Vote Count
jarjarbinks (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
LightningStrike (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
Gumdrop (1): Tubesock
TheWarWaffle (3): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte
Tubesock (1): TheWarWaffle
Not Voting (5): The Shining, Half the Sky, jarjarbinks, Trfel, Gumdrop
Currently, TheWarWaffle is set to be lynched. until deadline.
This was FIVE MINUTES before your outright VT claim with WW being a solid two votes ahead of you. The next vote was Gumdrop voting ExO more than twenty minutes after that. You were NOT ahead in votecount.
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On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.
This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you. It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that.
Do I seriously have to spell this out?
Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS:
LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.
Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting.
Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this:
Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.
To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat.
No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town.
I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then?
Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting.
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On January 09 2015 05:00 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 04:57 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 04:23 LightningStrike wrote:On January 09 2015 04:05 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 02:11 ExO_ wrote:On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read. If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you. You are lying and I can prove it.On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly....
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...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.
Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me. Except you just explicitly quoted me expressing doubt and highlighting him by saying I wasn't sure what to make of him. He posted AFTER I posted leading to my later comment about how I'd liked his post which put me off his scent. But that does NOT wipe out the fact I was originally dubious of his posting. You're misrepresenting me AGAIN here. Point out the lie. I mean really... On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again.
Oh really? On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.
I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.
At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes: On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it
. You finally go back on to LS with: On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations.
But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more . Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post:: On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote:+ Show Spoiler +I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post: On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being.
Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town.
Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky.
Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions.
Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game.
sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town.
meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum.
alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions.
Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do.
kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him
rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :|
Look Familiar? HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him. So you're just going to straight up ignore this? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=21#412LS straight up claimed VT with zero pressure on him. AFTER my last reply to you, which influenced me to doubt him again. So once again you are completely misrepresenting the situation. So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:
Liars should be lynched
People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.
##Vote: Celestial I've just demonstrated I was dubious of LS on my initial impressions which was then improved by his later post (notice that it was an EDIT which brought that back), knocked back again by what you posted, redeemed by him demonstrating similar play in later games and then brought down somewhat again by his panicky claim. THIS is the factual story rather than the narrative you're making up and is what I was pointing out in my earlier reply. I was never happy with WW's posting but it was not enough to lynch but nor was it enough to encourage people not to lynch, which I've already explained multiple times to the point I'm getting tired of pointing it out. Its like banging my head against a goddamn wall. If I've been "generally agreeable" then I wouldn't be repeatedly sticking my neck out by being ever suspicious of the motives of rsoultin considering virtually everyone else has been apparently townreading her to date. Honestly, this is absurd. You are intentionally and very deliberately misrepresenting everything I've said so far and flat out making up a timeline of events to support your story. Frankly I question your motivations here. I had you down for town but now you're making a hell of an effort to twist the order of events to suit yourself. I claimed VT because I thought I was getting lynched and claimed there simple as that. I had the majority of the votes at the time I claimed VT. On January 09 2015 04:54 LightningStrike wrote:
Celestial did you not see the vote count at the time I claimed VT? Ya the majority was on me not WW. Ofc I would claim if I had the majority of the votes a couple hours before being lynched. As far as I can tell this an outright LIE. When you "softclaimed" you had two votes on you, which was more than anyone else (but only by 1 vote). And you staying that way was contingent on you not providing me with any evidence to the contrary, which you did not long after which got my vote off you. But when you claimed VT you did NOT have the majority. PROOF! Here is your VT claim: On January 07 2015 05:12 LightningStrike wrote:I'm Vanilla Town this game I wish I was a Cop to redeem myself from Campus Mafia Votes: On January 07 2015 05:07 kitaman27 wrote:
Day 1 Vote Count
jarjarbinks (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
LightningStrike (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
Gumdrop (1): Tubesock
TheWarWaffle (3): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte
Tubesock (1): TheWarWaffle
Not Voting (5): The Shining, Half the Sky, jarjarbinks, Trfel, Gumdrop
Currently, TheWarWaffle is set to be lynched. until deadline. This was FIVE MINUTES before your outright VT claim with WW being a solid two votes ahead of you. The next vote was Gumdrop voting ExO more than twenty minutes after that. You were NOT ahead in votecount. Okay I thought was I was ahead on votes still at the time my bad -.- But still I was being pressured by ExO and Tube at least if I recall.
You were being pressured solely by ExO. I was asking ExO questions but I wasn't on your back so much anymore, I just wanted to know what he thought about your claims of similar play in other games. Tube was parked on Gumdrop and was busy trying to question WW over why he'd scumread Tube. Tube was wound up by the way you'd softclaimed but had also explicitly stated he'd prefer a Shining or jarjar lynch.
The ONLY source of pressure was ExO who had already voted for you. NOBODY else was on your back, it was pure panic.
Sorry but all of this from you now is just shady as hell. You're trying to claim that you were under great pressure in the thread and outright lied about having the most votes earlier. You've still got all of that suspicion hanging over you from D1, you were pre-emptively sheeping a Shining train just a few pages ago without even asking for more details and you keep repeating "I'm VT" in post after post after post. This smells incredibly bad to me.
##Vote: LightningStrike
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On January 09 2015 04:44 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial- You're the towniest of the town so far. Is there anyone you can make a really strong case on and push for?
Who is your likely mafia team?
Sorry, missed this.
Given the recent stuff LS has been posting he smells incredibly bad to me. If he IS town then I just don't even know what to say. Its absurd. Outright lies that were easily proven wrong, constant sheeping and I don't think he's had a single controversial opinion. Hiding behind "lets all be friends" and following the herd. His entire defence seems to be "meta, I always play like this" but at some point you've got to stop thinking about meta and start looking at what they're actually DOING. Either scum or just terribly, terribly lazy play? I'm putting my money on scum for now.
Outside of him it becomes more fuzzy. Your own comments have made me think that its unlikely both him and LS are mafia but Shining was (before all of this) one of my stronger mafia reads. So I'm not sure what to make of that anymore. I'll have to think on it.
I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation.
If I absolutely had to say right now: One of Shining/LS, rsoultin + 1 other, assuming three mafia. LS given all this stuff the past couple of pages is my preference out of Shining and LS right now.
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On January 09 2015 05:34 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 05:28 ExO_ wrote:On January 09 2015 05:11 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.
This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you. It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that. Do I seriously have to spell this out? Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS: LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly. Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting. Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this: Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat. No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town. I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then? Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting. I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did. You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game. Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all. I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS. To -Celestial-: Lies and such aside. I think part of ExO's point is you haven't really stuck your neck out for any read. I'd love to see you cash in some of this town cred you have and really force-ably push a case. You have to have more than 1 scum read. LS is an easy lynch. Building a case on him is a waste of time and shows no risk. You decided to stay off a main wagon and park on JarJar. Build your case. He's pretty scummy.
I've got to eat right now but if you want me to I can run through my full thoughts on jarjar from the past couple of days when I get back if you like.
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On January 09 2015 05:28 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 05:11 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.
This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you. It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that. Do I seriously have to spell this out? Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS: LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly. Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting. Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this: Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat. No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town. I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then? Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting. I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did. You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game. Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all. I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS.
My original post was intended to imply doubt in LS. I'm sorry if it didn't come across that way. In essence I wanted LS to post more of substance because at that point to me it looked suspiciously like LS was deliberately avoiding doing so, which I disliked. The key sentence was:
"Not really sure what to make of that honestly."
Which was intended to be a prod in LS' direction saying "I don't like your posting, convince me you're town".
Call me describing it that way as "overrepresenting" it if you wish, but I didn't outright lie here. -_-
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On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel?
Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target.
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On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel? Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target. I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy.
Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\
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On January 09 2015 07:17 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:13 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel? Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target. I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy. Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\ Well, I thought I made it clear. I think any case on LS now is a waste. The case on him, and his behavior is strong enough for all 9 of us to be on him. Shit, If I were Lightning I'd vote myself for how bad I am. I mean there is literally 0 people towning him. I even said I'm probably ragevoting him. That means there better be 1 wagon with everyone on LS. Why build a case in this situation? You're next I thought was Jarjar. Go after someone who we can go after D3.
Alright if we're so certain about the LS wagon for D2 I'll scrap this dive and have a look at someone else. I'll keep it in a word document in case we need it again though.
I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches.
I've got a reasonable feeling about Shining, but that might just be a hangover from D1. And I still don't like rsoultin's actions but I'm not sure if I can condemn because whatever I say about words vs actions her explanations seem to ring somewhat true. I've already mentioned my concerns about rsoultin earlier though when we were questioning each other after the D1 EoD flip.
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On January 09 2015 07:29 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:17 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:13 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel? Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target. I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy. Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\ Well, I thought I made it clear. I think any case on LS now is a waste. The case on him, and his behavior is strong enough for all 9 of us to be on him. Shit, If I were Lightning I'd vote myself for how bad I am. I mean there is literally 0 people towning him. I even said I'm probably ragevoting him. That means there better be 1 wagon with everyone on LS. Why build a case in this situation? You're next I thought was Jarjar. Go after someone who we can go after D3. Alright if we're so certain about the LS wagon for D2 I'll scrap this dive and have a look at someone else. I'll keep it in a word document in case we need it again though. I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches. I've got a reasonable feeling about Shining, but that might just be a hangover from D1. And I still don't like rsoultin's actions but I'm not sure if I can condemn because whatever I say about words vs actions her explanations seem to ring somewhat true. I've already mentioned my concerns about rsoultin earlier though when we were questioning each other after the D1 EoD flip. You literally don't have a 2nd scum read?
Not one as strong as the one I now have on LS. Before LS my D2 preferred lynch was likely to be Shining based on a bunch of stuff from D1, largely because jarjar had redeemed himself post-flip.
The problem I'm having now is that your earlier posts coupled with reviewing the voting pattern has got me convinced that only one of Shining/LS is scum. So I'm having a great deal of trouble matching up those two contradictory things (the read on Shining coupled with the stronger read on LS).
What are your current thoughts on any potential LS/Shining partnership or have you ruled it out by now?
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On January 09 2015 07:21 Tubesock wrote:
I feel like any more evidence on LS is like going to the doctor when you're pregnant, getting a blood test, then going to two more doctors to really make sure you're pregnant.
You've said my tinfoil hat theory is probably not right. You're saying it implicitly by spending 30 minutes on a case on LS. I'm the ONLY one defending him. Why pick LS for a case?
I just picked it because its my strongest read after I called him out a couple of pages back. I thought you were just after a clear and concise read on someone I'm scumreading. Doesn't matter, I'll look into one of the others detailed above.
I honestly don't think your theory is totally out of it. BUT I would say that I don't find it too likely. Lots of people have been getting scum reads on each of Shining and LS.
As I understand it your argument is that unless they're BOTH mafia then the Trfel kill makes no sense, right? My counter to that would be that you yourself said that Trfel is a good player, correct? And he's played before? This would seem to imply either the mafia team has someone who has at least observed Trfel played before, but that could be anyone so its not really helpful. In any case the point is that you've identified him as a strong player; and I'm sure other experienced mafia players will have done the same.
However Trfel has also been inactive and fairly quiet for a couple of days but one of the things he DID say was that he didn't like any of the three lynches, but by the posting of other people was leaning towards the best lynch being Shining. Towards the end he was focused on the fact he didn't like the WW lynch but that's not really indicative of anything at all. However before that he was fairly clear that he didn't like any of them too much.
In this situation I think its just the simplest explanation possible, which I've mentioned before. You say he's a known strong player. He was fairly quiet but mentioned he'd try to get more active later on. The inactivity meant little chance of a doc save and because he didn't really like any of the lynches it'd cast doubt over all of the wagons. The kill is pure disruption to make us doubt the two wagons that didn't go through as well as potentially eliminate a threat that could come later if he became more active. A more obvious kill would likely give us more to go on.
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On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial
Why do you think mafia nked trfel?
Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets.
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On January 09 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:
If there was 1 mafia on the lynch, then it's smarter to kill one of the ones with an opinion (framing the non mafia perhaps) and then mafia can "guide" town to killing the townie.
I can't really follow this train of thought. You're saying that if one of the mafia were up for lynch you'd want to NK one of those pushing the mafia lynch, despite it being incredibly obvious? Surely that's just hoping that someone will start to WIFOM the NK on the basis that its so obvious that it can't possibly be that simple?
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On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial
Why do you think mafia nked trfel? Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets. It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?
Don't know, me probably based on your post here. Let me filter dive a sec.
So the people Trfel mentioned were Shining, WW and LS (which we've already discussed), HtS who he dismissed as having nothing unusual there, jarjar who he mentioned as giving a break to and never followed that up as far as I can tell, me who he described as not liking my original analysis but never followed it up and right at the end he started filter diving Tubesock but never got to finish.
I think that's all of them?
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On January 09 2015 08:05 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial
Why do you think mafia nked trfel? Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets. It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is? That's exactly who I am pushing now.  Yes, it's the only time he spoke of this person. And the scummiest thing he said about anyone.
Bit rich considering that the post was this:
On January 07 2015 06:24 Trfel wrote:
Also, I really don't like -Celestial-'s opening post. Most of the points made feel wrong to me. I don't scumread him for it, but I am rather surprised by the amount of other people who agreed with it.
And that his very last comments on anyone were actually him starting to filter-dive you to look for indicators:
On January 07 2015 07:38 Trfel wrote:
Looking into Tubesock now, I will keep checking for thoughts, especially the response to my thoughts on TheWarWaffle.
On January 07 2015 08:00 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:
I'm also assuming you are building a case on me right? No, I'm reading your filter and trying to decide if you are town or scum. There is a big difference.
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On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it?
You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine.
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On January 09 2015 08:25 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Other than LS, who are your top 2 scum reads and why?
Fine you want some scumreads? Fine.
I scumread The Shining; but the problem with this read is I seriously doubt BOTH Shining AND LS are scum because it feels like they've been bussing each other too much and too early if they are, so I'm having trouble placing both on the same team. Regardless, reasoning is as follows:
- Massively inactive for the whole of D1. Not alignment indicative in and of itself but not good.
- Piggybacked my explanation of my thoughts towards rsoultin. AND townread me for it which is just bizarre in my opinion. That explanation in and of itself was not enough to town me. Either a newbie mistake or an attempt to start the ever popular "everyone is town" thread and then hide in the background.
- Immediately called out ExO with a kind of OMGUS on the basis of him calling a potential vig shot asking "why so quick to kill?" when...you know...why not if its a good shot? Seems to want to slow the game down potentially here and sow doubt for any potential vig.
- Then goes after ExO hard despite the fact his posts, although being fairly quick one after the other, generally had some kind of decent point and analysis to them (leading me to read him as town fairly early on). Jumping about, as long as there's a decent point to it and some thought gone into it, is not inherently scummy to me (unlike my early feeling on rsoultin). But Shining was quick to label it as scum behaviour.
- Although I'm dubious of meta arguments, Shining goes out of his way to say "discard my meta". This, to me, is effectively saying "ignore this potential source of evidence" which is very, very suspicious behaviour to me. Having an explanation for difference in behaviour...fine. But outright pre-emptively asking people to discard it? Hmmm.
- The VERY NEXT POST (actually two posts later, but one was a slight edit to the previous one) he votes ExO_, admitting that this vote is partially based on meta. Which considering he just asked us to discard his own past history comes across as incredibly hypocritical.
- Makes a big deal of wanting to look at WW's argument and saying he doesn't have much time. Note that by this point the voting was a little close (4 to 3), he asks a question regarding ties. He switches at the very last second, thoroughly sealing WW's fate (at any point up to that moment someone could have changed from WW to Shining to make it 4-3 in Shining's favour and changed the outcome). I'm not sure I'd inherently believe this is scum behaviour because frankly a town would do this too considering he was up for the chop but even so its not great.
- Post-flip he started to flat out state he'd done exactly what I'D done for LS. Namely he'd been suspicious of the "lets all be friends" mentality outlined by ExO_ but was convinced by LS arguing that he'd posted similar before. That is literally what I'd done the day before, and now he's copying my actions to excuse his.
- Goes on the attack against LS, his fellow wagon, accusing him of sheeping rsoultin (which in fairness is true but even so its a pretty easy way to distract any questions away from himself).
- Then a nice big vote analysis post. Throws out a bunch of townreads on the WW wagon, firmly pinning the blame on LS, again the rival wagon. Refrains from criticising ExO, a guy who up until now he'd had nailed to the wall. Instead choosing to aim at me and jarjar. Utilising arguments that I proved false or had already explained in a massive discussion with rsoultin. Brought nothing new to the table at all.
- Later admits that his justification at EoD was "just a facade to cover voting for my counterwagon". I don't know about anyone else but I really don't see why you would even need to justify that. Both town AND mafia would vote for a counterwagon on themselves. So it looks less suspicious than outright trying to make up a reason, which to me says you're looking for excuses to make in addition to getting the vote off yourself.
- He ended up getting into a discussion where he was pointing out he agreed with a prior thing I'd said (back to the rsoultin accusations). This is a bit superfluous, was just to explicitly point out what he was parroting from me.
Since then he's only really been complaining about rsoultin scumreading him and LS together. But that's not alignment indicative because there are any number of reasons for wanting to distance themselves regardless if they're both mafia or not.
I'll post another in a bit.
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Also my next one is probably going to be my thoughts on rsoultin. Its not as strong a case as I'd like but I think its got some merit to it.
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EPT
