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TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 9

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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 15:37 GMT
#2878
The KSC argument was already completely smashed earlier so why would you even bring it up again... And I was genuinely very busy at the deadline so I had barely time to do anything. Besides the only way it's possibly a scummy vote is if HF is scum (some of the votes only came after mine so it was all but certain that KSC was getting lynched).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 15:41 GMT
#2879
About Oats: I guess he's not necessarily scum for his apathy. He'll need to be watched carefully though.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 19:28 GMT
#2882
On December 15 2014 04:18 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2014 00:30 Xatalos wrote:
On December 14 2014 18:21 Vivax wrote:

Out of the current wagons, I think the KSC wagon is the worst. He's made several plays that are unlikely to come from scum (baiting reactions by making himself look bad, suggesting delaying the 27nb lynch when he's next in line himself, etc.) and his posts during N1 seemed fine. The wagon on him also looks all but inspiring (all the voters are sketchy or at best somewhat nullish players).



Damn I can't really focus well right now. Anyways I looked at the case briefly earlier and I think KSC explained the last point decently during N1. I'll look at it again as soon as I can.

I can lynch KSC over HF/SL though if it comes down to it.



Well, I can see the appeal in that KSC case. Not sure about the ritoky point on its own since KSC explained that decently I think, but it seems like there's a larger theme of weird read changes during the game for him. It lends credibility to the idea that he's making stuff up. Forgetting several things and making a meta scumread without apparently knowing much about that particular meta. I think it's a decent lynch at least compared to some like HF/SL (and perhaps Tube too). It should also be somewhat telling of FF's alignment so it's not too bad.


I mean, look at this. The guy he first calls the worst wagon, is suddenly someone "he can lynch" before he even reviewed the KSC case.


Vivax, he was a worse lynch than ritoky or Tube, not worse than HF. Besides, by the end of D2, ritoky seemed better (considering the present analysis) and Tube looked better (his frantic deadline posting). Also I only said that I'd lynch KSC over HF before reading the case fully... Which had been my stance all along. You should really put a bit more effort in your arguments.


That's bullshit though, you mention arguments for Kelsier being town on multiple occasions, there is no evidence that all your arguments are based on PoE regarding Tube and ritoky.

You townread him for the trap play since D1, keep that argument all throughout D2, only to throw it away when it looks like he's getting lynched.


Yeah, his early plays (specifically the trap thing) were indeed more likely to come from town than scum. I still stand by those arguments even though he ultimately flipped scum. But the lynch was heading in the direction of KSC/HF so I just said things as they were (KSC would be the better lynch there). When I said that I hadn't fully read the case on him, but as I said earlier, KSC wasn't on the level of some of my other townreads that were being voted (HF/SL at the time) and the case clearly had some merit when so many decently townish posters (rsoultin for example?) agreed with it. When I got around to read the whole case, I could see for myself that there were some points about KSC's play that I hadn't been paying full attention when I was preoccupied with your stupid case on him. So yeah. I don't really get what you're trying to say.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 20:01 GMT
#2887
I don't think I've ever actually scumread Vivax. He was actually one of my highest townreads at some point, but currently I'm not really sure what to think... It's weird how he totally dropped the push on me and suddenly just returned to it. And again with bad reasons. Thinking about it, I can't recall any great (or even that good) points that he's brought forth. Maybe I was wrong about him.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 20:14 GMT
#2892
On December 15 2014 05:05 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2014 05:01 Xatalos wrote:
I don't think I've ever actually scumread Vivax. He was actually one of my highest townreads at some point, but currently I'm not really sure what to think... It's weird how he totally dropped the push on me and suddenly just returned to it. And again with bad reasons. Thinking about it, I can't recall any great (or even that good) points that he's brought forth. Maybe I was wrong about him.


Dude you have no idea how formulaic and artificial you sound when you're scum. I remember that game where you were town and EVERYBODY had trouble reading you until town started winning. That's cause you were more natural and less diplomatic than you are now.

I'm here in the thread, talk to me, you put a vote with no effect on a scummer you townread since D1 right at EoD piling up a bunch of half-assed reasons. You ignored what I wrote on Kelsier D1. You townread him for trap play before he explained it was trap play. Yes, I already mentioned this.

And if you want to push me as scumread then start immediately cause I wanna have a good laugh.


No, he explained that it was a trap play well before I even came to the thread. You were already proven wrong earlier...

On December 09 2014 09:30 KelsierSC wrote:
So i think fecal is scum, we played a game together as town and early game he was very try hard, essentially Kush made a set up/mechanics comment and fecal went back to the setup, worked through all the permutations and then asked Kush to explain. Super town super eager.

this game i make a set up comment, then retract it and ff doesn't bat n eyelid. All he does is talk to slam about sumo. Which is pretty pointless. Like "herez an excuse nit to scumhunt" it doesn't feel towny at all


On December 10 2014 09:15 KelsierSC wrote:
Ah cool tubesock didn't read the thread.

my scrooge play was to get a specific read on ff i explained that before. Outside of that i have given lots of good town reads, all of which are developed reads not one liners, weird misrepresentation of my play again. If you need more explanation , ask.

fyi a guy talking to a girl isn't flirting, grow up.


Think what you will. You'll never lynch me with those arguments or some gut feeling on my meta... When I don't think you really even know my meta. I'm not always polite as scum or always a spamfest as town haha
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 20:17 GMT
#2893
Also my playstyle varies quite a bit depending on the type of my town role.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 20:27 GMT
#2897
rofl
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 20:33 GMT
#2899
Shooting LS would be stupid when he claimed the Ghost role and nobody counter-claimed him (which they should have done immediately if there was someone to counter-claim since the role became useless).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 20:40 GMT
#2902
On December 15 2014 05:38 Vivax wrote:
Judging from your filter, Xata, you have no scumreads now and for some reason you aren't suspicious of Oats.


....What? I just specifically said that Oats needs attention from his apathy / vote behaviour.

And I do have reads. I just don't think it's the best time to go making lists right now.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 20:54 GMT
#2906
I think I was the first one to even mention his D2 play and how detached it was. Then some people defended him. So it's the opposite of what you're saying. Whatever. You're just tunneling and pointing everything I do or might do as scummy. Not very productive to discuss from that stance.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 14 2014 21:11 GMT
#2925
On December 15 2014 06:07 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2014 05:54 Xatalos wrote:
I think I was the first one to even mention his D2 play and how detached it was. Then some people defended him. So it's the opposite of what you're saying. Whatever. You're just tunneling and pointing everything I do or might do as scummy. Not very productive to discuss from that stance.


Cool that you try to take cred for pointing out something about someone you don't wanna read either way. If you're so sure your points were good, and still are, why not scumread him? There's plenty of scum left and FF was your last read. It's not clear where you stand now.


This is giving me flashbacks of Damdred from last game...

Originally I thought Oats was quite likely scum for not caring much about the D2 lynch. Then some people pointed out that as scum he should have showed up at deadline as KSC was a lynch candidate so maybe he really was just busy yesterday. So now I'm somewhat back to null on him.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 18:13 GMT
#3317
I think the game is getting easier and easier as days pass. By now we can basically eliminate several players as potential scum based on role stuff and there are a couple of otherwise highly townie players. Then there are some question marks and a couple of likely scum (based on both process of elimination and individual factors). Please point out if I missed something relevant.

Semi-confirmed / highly likely town:

Fecalfeast
Not only was he likely greenchecked by Trfel, but also pushed and voted by KSC throughout the game. The greencheck alone might be explained by a Godfather role or misinterpreting Trfel's filter, but combined with KSC's play it's highly unlikely that he would flip scum.

Vivax
Has a role claim without counter-claim. Mostly the fact that fake claiming would be very stupid for him when he was under no real pressure and might have risked an immediate lynch if there was a counter-claim.

LightningStrike
See: Vivax.

rsoultin
Has consistently made good points and mostly shared arguments that I could resonate with. Has also been very active and a voice of reason in the game. Overall a very townish player.

Holyflare
Despite his slight lack of involvement at times (apparently because of IRL stuff), he's clearly thinking a lot about the game and pushing his own opinions whenever he's in the thread. After reading GB's cases I still can't find any compelling reason to believe that he's scum this game.

Question marks:

sicklucker
Earlier I was quite sure of him being town based on his claim and the way he did it, but more recently I haven't really been impressed with his posts. The claim also seems like something not that risky to fake claim as scum. He wouldn't still really be a good lynch based on his towny vibes during D1.

Half the Sky
Early on I felt her play felt scummy, then it's pretty much set at null / slight town lean. Not really a good lynch.

froggynoddy
Has seemed pretty passive and evasive all game. I don't really get the feeling that it's scum motivated though, more like timid town. This is after just rereading his filter yesterday. Earlier I thought he might be scum... Now I'm leaning more towards town. We'll see.

Alakaslam
I'm not really sure how to read him. Slight town feels?

liancourt
I can't make sense of him, kind of like Alakaslam. Hopefully following events will shed more light on him.

ritoky
I still stand by my argument that it wouldn't make sense for the scumteam to claim like he did. It's harder to see him as town when his bullet apparently did nothing, though. Didn't he really open it? Or was he roleblocked and OWS's or his target was protected or something? The explanation of him being scum seems a bit more likely now than it did before. He would have claimed it by now if he fakeclaimed the whole thing (as town) so that can't be it.

batsnacks
A real question mark for me currently.

Tubesock
His hectic posting at the deadline actually felt pretty genuine. There's still the weird slip, his changes in style and such to keep in mind.

Scum lean:

The_Templar
He's pretty much flown under my radar all game after his claim and pretty forgettable posting style. Mostly a gut feeling for now.

Oatsmaster
Keeps wasting his votes (doesn't even vote for his biggest scumread froggy during D2) and hasn't really done anything to further town goals. Scum or the most apathetic townie I've seen in ages.

GlowingBear
Still continuing role fishing (which has a clear scum motivation), tunneling HF with pretty weak arguments (I don't think I've yet seen anything that couldn't be well explained by time/post restraints) and weird reluctance to get HF shot at night (no, "he might be town" doesn't cut it when GB has tunneled him for the longest time - the easiest explanation would be that he'd rather keep the mislynch around...). I've been undecided on him for a while but at this point I think he's probably scum. His flip would also be decently telling (mostly regarding players like HF and SL).

##Vote GlowingBear
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 18:17 GMT
#3319
Oh yeah, if you're wondering, the reads go roughly most town -> most scum although I didn't actually check a precise order for them.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 18:23 GMT
#3320
On December 15 2014 23:14 Holyflare wrote:
You don't have to look at meta to see oats is scummy. No idea why you only have a tiny bit based on his content and those things aren't even the things that make oats scummy.
Show nested quote +
However, bunnies didnt explain shit on her change which makes me think it is really bad. So too scum to be scum.

Show nested quote +
On December 12 2014 22:13 Oatsmaster wrote:
On December 12 2014 22:10 GlowingBear wrote:
I want to read more of the thread before making a case on HF, but a lot of his reasoning is off. The lack of push on ritoky's present claim, the multiple scumreads of wagons outside the 27nb wagon and the 27nb mislynch is all playing against him.

His entrance in this game is awful, he picking on bunnies for being contradictory when picking up on frogs awful entrance but not picking on Vivax post on frog... This kind of double standards worries me.

explain pls.
Im not feeling it.

Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.



It's things like this where he tries to shut down wagons (on conveniently town wagons (pending ff isn't gf or something) based on really just nothing. It's worse when he tries to shit on the ff lynch because of his post count and not the content especially as there were lots of content cases on ff at that point and i don't think it was till after vivax called him out that he started adding more reasons why the lynch was bad (the nk analysis things etc).

He is just uninvolved and downplaying lynches to end up only lynching lurkers.


^

This post explains well why Oats is more of a scum lean rather than just null by now.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 18:38 GMT
#3321
On December 15 2014 13:16 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2014 12:43 GlowingBear wrote:
Rsoultin, what do you think of Xatalos?

Ritoky, why were you reading ff as mafia on day1?


Eh, Xatalos. For awhile I thought he'd be a good person to listen to/sheep. What I mean by that is people have town reads, yes, but not all your town reads are going to be players you actually agree with. Xatalos is logical and appeals to my need for things to make sense, and I was townreading him.

I'm less certain of him now. Not so much because of the voting at the end of the day, but because I went back through his filter when Vivax was riding him. He's very...noncommittal through most of it? Yes I know this is something to do with tone. But his reads and statements came off very cautious to me, like he's reluctant to make scum reads or something. Cautious about bunnies, reading KSC as town because his move was "too bold" for mafia, lynching bunnies cause no reason not to, noncommittal about HF and Vivax still being alive after night 1 (like he's hinting that they might be scum but not willing to pursue it), focusing on Tubes "scumslip", FF then becomes "too scum to be scum"...but then goes back to scumreading him for something called "Occam's razor"?

I'm assuming that means if it smells like a rat it's a rat in layman's terms, but I haven't looked it up.

Don't see any point where he's reading someone as strongly scummy, just this side of null. And he does seem to dismiss KSC as a potential lynch entirely, too, but that could just be a town being wrong. I also don't see (though I might have missed it) where his ritoky read changed from town to a possible lynch.

Xatalos said he had reads but wouldn't give them Night 2. He may have had his reasons, but I'd like to see them now.

I'm not scum-reading him, per se, but there are doubts in my head now. I think I just didn't notice him as much because he's not as vocal/confrontational as a lot of the other players, and I don't know that caution in and of itself is a exclusive to scum, but given how often he's commented that scum wouldn't do anything to draw attention to themselves, and then seeing how cautiously he's been playing...it does bring up doubts.


Heh. Paranoia is natural.

Didn't really get that ritoky point though?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 18:39 GMT
#3322
Occam's razor - use the simplest solution. If someone looks really scummy, he might just simply be scum.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 18:47 GMT
#3324
On December 16 2014 03:44 LightningStrike wrote:
Guys I think the Mass Murderer is out of bullets because he will be given only 2 bullets to try to kill people and since there is no refund in bullets if I recalled reading the role description it's only going to be 1 death per night now so we got some time to figure out who is scum but we still under pressure though to get out some scum members to make connections on the remaining scum members thus we win the game as town.


Mafia KP formula is: 2KP

Each mafia player can only deliver one bullet, so in practice it drops to one when 1 mafia remains.

?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 19:02 GMT
#3328
Hm. HTS / LS, what do you think of GB?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 19:19 GMT
#3332
On December 16 2014 04:04 LightningStrike wrote:
I got GB null leaning scum but I would rather lynch Tubesock right now read my thing on him earlier on why.


Yeah I agree that he doesn't seem to pay much attention and the slips are disturbing. What's holding me back is his crazy posting streak before deadline... It'd be hard for a beginner scum to post like that.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2014 19:20 GMT
#3333
On December 16 2014 04:18 GlowingBear wrote:
-.-

None of you has good reasons against me.

Jesus.


You've tunneled HF for the longest time for much worse reasons.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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