EPTThe one thing that I can agree with LT about is the sqrts thing. Upon my reread of the thread I noted that he left AFTER onceking started talking policy and Robik started pressuring him (I initially thought that he left before). I find it odd that he didn't take the time to make at least a quick comment on it before going to sleep. Still, it isn't enough to judge imo, and I find it oddly suspicious how he reads him to be scummier than Cav, who has had some very faulty logic (will get to that in abit).
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
The one thing that I can agree with LT about is the sqrts thing. Upon my reread of the thread I noted that he left AFTER onceking started talking policy and Robik started pressuring him (I initially thought that he left before). I find it odd that he didn't take the time to make at least a quick comment on it before going to sleep. Still, it isn't enough to judge imo, and I find it oddly suspicious how he reads him to be scummier than Cav, who has had some very faulty logic (will get to that in abit). | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
- Reads on Valenius and Pixalated. ...how? Valenius asked some good questions to develop OnceKing's policy, but that's all. Certainly a good start but not nearly enough to declare him "super town" or "cleared." Especially in light of the fact that he said Pixalated is neutral-to-scummy... I have Pixalated as neutral-to-town if anything, but to be honest they've done virtually the same thing here (not post much, make solid contributions where they did). There's a lack of explanation for either read, which on its own doesn't say much, but... ZzZ. I knew I should've tried posting that part some other time. Or maybe I should've approached it with more subtlety (see: any subtlety at all). Was trying to scumbait with it when questioning Cavalinho and sqrt. Was trying to see if they would piggyback off of it. Went back and deleted those sections specifically to try. My true reads: Valenius leans town at best. I'm hesitant to call him anything at this stage of the game, when his only post is at best asking for a PAINFULLY obvious clarification on a policy. Or in other words, in line with what everyone else has said. Pixelated is leaning town. He's had more posts and has given reads on sqrt and Valenius, but the main crux of their points have been similar to what OK and others in the thread have said (not much to be said this early into the game, however). He was however the first to defend OK's post (outside of OK), and rightly so. If we're continuing with the Cavalinho lynch, it is...unlikely for them to simultaneously bandwagon on a possible lynch and defend the person in question. - His position on Cavalinho is inconsistently soft wrt the rest of his list. Notice the "almost" above -- the one big exception is the guy that I personally think is obviously scum. He does some lip service to the idea (e.g. "these things should mark him clear scum"), but then handwaves every point he raises for Cavalinho on a shaky meta argument (e.g. "mark him as clear scum, but... might just be his playstyle). He says Cavalinho is "maybe the most scummiest read he has"*, but then declares sqrt his "probable" lynch target today. There's a lot of waffling on Cavalinho that isn't present with the others. (PREVIEW EDIT: Even concedes the case is strong, but still has sqrt as his top suspect. p l s) This is again going off of my experience with Cavalinho in LII, though the more you prod, the more I think you may be right about me softballing Cavalinho. I may be trying to discern too much off meta, and am letting how LII Day 1 went color my view of the game and his (pretty scummy) actions too much. - His rationale for sqrt is weak. Of a handful of inactives so far he's singling out one post of sqrt's (the "I've never drawn mafia" post) as the thing that's so disconcerting to him? Already zeroed in on sqrt being a scum lurker and wants to lynch him over aforesaid "maybe most scummiest read"*? That's just strange to me because nothing that sqrt has done has been alignment-indicative yet. As I EXPLICITLY note, it was posted AFTER the serious posting began, and AFTER IAmRobik's wtf on OK. The timestamp is key: if it were before that, and even OK's post, whatever. idgaf because that was part of the joke phase. That's what I find the most disconcerting of his posting, versus Valenius (whose post at least addressed something serious). - Preview edit point: That last question is such a softball! Ideal to ask your fake scum read and your scum buddy, terrible as town. Why wouldn't he ask about the things Cavalinho and sqrt are doing that makes them suspicious to him? My main issue with sqrt again is the timing of his post and decision to start lurking at that juncture, which makes me far more leery of him over Valenius. Look at the time stamps: 3.5 hours between OK's post and Valenius's question and his sleep post, 4 minutes between Robik's wtf post and his highlighted post, and 11 minutes between the post I highlighted and his sleep post. Certainly there's time to post...something serious? When we had clearly moved past the jokes votes? Putting him among my top scum reads is/was a means to pressure him into posting something of value and see if he posts anything that makes me pursue that line of inquiry. Similarly, the main thing which Cavalinho isn't doing is giving anything of substance in his posts. This is also why I was posting a full reads list, to see if there was any piggybacking going on. | ||
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
If you are scumbaiting why are you revealing your trap before they even have the chance to fall for it? | ||
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
##Vote: Cavalinho I agree with Eden's post here + Show Spoiler + OK town, so Cavalinho is either terrible at reading comprehension or trying to distort what I'm saying. Let's review. Again it's not that he said OnceKing's start was weird, it's that he didn't do anything to figure out why it was weird or tell us how it was weird. He asked OK why OK made a post about policy lynching lurkers, OK said it was to get the town out of RVS. That's not weird. Cavalinho didn't bother to respond to him and then kept repeating himself about how weird it was. No explanation as to why or how that's weird, no attempt to develop OK's response, nothing. His questions didn't have any apparent direction or purpose to them. He asked OK why OK made the post, OK gave a good answer aaaand... Cavalinho drops it like a hot potato. No follow up? Nothing? Why are we supposed to be convinced that OK is weird or scum or whatever when you're just asking questions to ask them and not developing any insights from them? He asserts that he was asking questions because he didn't understand what was going on, but you'll notice that he doesn't acknowledge OK's answer at all. Instead he starts playing reactively, answering OK's questions and then dropping the line of discussion. That's not what people do when they're trying to understand what's going on. He vaguely talks around the issue right before I prodded him, saying that he thinks OK's start was still weird, but that he "[doesn't] have any real reason to think [OK] is mafia" because of his "last accusatory post" (what post is this?) and he "seems townie, getting information and generally being one of those obvious town players" (this doesn't actually say anything about why he doesn't think OK is mafia; we know that he wouldn't think that because he thinks OK seems town, why does he?) I also happen to think his OMGUS vote is him trying to look innocent because he's aware of his meta (not the post beforehand he noted that Robik townread him in a previous game because he OMGUS'd then), but that can go either way. What's telling is that he fails to develop his vote, he just puts it down and insists it'll be me or him today. That's dumb and not what a town player should be doing. Cavalinho is my best read for mafia right now. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On March 26 2014 20:33 Pixalated wrote: What. If you are scumbaiting why are you revealing your trap before they even have the chance to fall for it? Since Eden explicitly called out for those reads (like I said, no subtlety) which defeats the whole purpose, and because I think Eden is correct in pointing out that this is not the right day for these kind of tarps. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
And thank you for reminding me ##: unvote OnceKing | ||
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
OnceKing sounds town as all fk. I was originally suspicious of his initial "serious" post due to OK's early Day 1 behavior versus early Day 1 LII newbie mafia game and was going to comment on it, but I re-read the old thread and reversed my initial opinion on it (originally thought it was inconsistent, but I reread his case on Amiko and it didn't mention the lurker lynch policy). He's been pushing town towards active discussion since then, asking for reads, and generally steering conversation towards positive goals, so he's establishing himself as town thus far. IAmRobik also feels town to me, though I still question why he feels OK's post is out of place given the context (unless it was scumbait, that was my first thought). The post is still useful pressure and discussion for town, though, and there is no reason for scum to be so forward, so early on in the day, especially with the possible game-states (no godfather game-state). And his posts subsequent read fairly town. Actually can you explain this. You say you yourself feel suspicious of OK's first post, yet you yourself ask why Robik thinks its out of place??? | ||
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On March 26 2014 06:31 Lord Tolkien wrote: ZzZ. I knew I should've tried posting that part some other time. Or maybe I should've approached it with more subtlety (see: any subtlety at all). Was trying to scumbait with it when questioning Cavalinho and sqrt. Was trying to see if they would piggyback off of it. Went back and deleted those sections specifically to try. My true reads: Valenius leans town at best. I'm hesitant to call him anything at this stage of the game, when his only post is at best asking for a PAINFULLY obvious clarification on a policy. Or in other words, in line with what everyone else has said. Pixelated is leaning town. He's had more posts and has given reads on sqrt and Valenius, but the main crux of their points have been similar to what OK and others in the thread have said (not much to be said this early into the game, however). He was however the first to defend OK's post (outside of OK), and rightly so. If we're continuing with the Cavalinho lynch, it is...unlikely for them to simultaneously bandwagon on a possible lynch and defend the person in question. On March 26 2014 20:46 Lord Tolkien wrote: Since Eden explicitly called out for those reads (like I said, no subtlety) which defeats the whole purpose, and because I think Eden is correct in pointing out that this is not the right day for these kind of tarps. Yeah I'm not buying this. Five problems here, folks: - The timing. His post setting the "trap" came over 20 minutes after the post containing the "bait," and the "trap" is at the end. Looks like an afterthought. I'm not convinced it's the result of prior planning. - The mechanism. He's essentially saying he was setting up a reaction test. There are four components that have to be in any reaction test: targets, purpose, rationale and conclusions. His targets are clear (his two scum reads) and his purpose is ostensibly credible (try to see if they sheep his reads). The problem is that this isn't alignment-indicative. Sometimes town accidentally sheep other people. Sometimes they even purposefully do. That alone doesn't tell us anything. Thus his conclusion from the test would have to be that it's null. That's not a good test and strong reason to think it wasn't a test at all. - The actual reads he's now giving. His Valenius read is in his own words "in line with what everyone else has said," and his Pixalated read is based entirely off of things that Pixalated said AFTER his "bait" post. In other words, he lied about what his Pixalated read was in his initial post because it's built entirely on posts made after the initial post. He cannot have read Pixalated town in his "bait" post because Pixalated commented on sqrt: Pixalated hadn't commented on sqrt yet! - The decision to reveal the trap so early. He wasn't under any obligation to reply to me until the trap was sprung. I can't see any reason why a town player would do this. I can see why a mafia player would do it, overestimating the extent to which he's under suspicion and feeling the need to concede more than necessary in order to shake suspicion starting to turn his way. But I can't see why a town player wouldn't simply ignore my comments about the different components of the trap until after the trap has been sprung. - The slip in the followup post. I never said anything about whether this is the right or wrong day. Looks to me like lies are piling up on top of lies here. On March 26 2014 06:31 Lord Tolkien wrote: As I EXPLICITLY note, it was posted AFTER the serious posting began, and AFTER IAmRobik's wtf on OK. The timestamp is key: if it were before that, and even OK's post, whatever. idgaf because that was part of the joke phase. That's what I find the most disconcerting of his posting, versus Valenius (whose post at least addressed something serious). It was also right before he went to sleep. Yeah, it's not a constructive post. That's not automatically scum, especially in isolation. Tolkein, you have one chance to explain why you lied about your Pixalated read from your bait post before we just kill you today and sort out Cavalinho tomorrow. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
Actually can you explain this. You say you yourself feel suspicious of OK's first post, yet you yourself ask why Robik thinks its out of place??? I was initially suspicious because in LII he started a case against Amiko for a post which included a lurker lynching policy, and thought it was inconsistent. Upon reread, he had no qualms about the lynching policy and it was myself and Cavalinho who pointed out the policy, his focus was on the fluff. I should have clarified, you are correct. As I said, I have probably been trying to rely too much on meta. | ||
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
- The actual reads he's now giving. His Valenius read is in his own words "in line with what everyone else has said," and his Pixalated read is based entirely off of things that Pixalated said AFTER his "bait" post. In other words, he lied about what his Pixalated read was in his initial post because it's built entirely on posts made after the initial post. He cannot have read Pixalated town in his "bait" post because Pixalated commented on sqrt: Pixalated hadn't commented on sqrt yet! I don't like how he cleared both sqrt and val. Already explained why I don't feel that Val's questions make him town, and sqrt posting random stuff doesn't mean much. What this means about his alignment I'm not sure. Could be mafia trying to get cred by claiming that people are townie and having 'right' reads when they flip. This was again in line with what OnceKing said about sqrt and Robik's clearing of him based on sqrt's long string of multi-posts on HS. It was also right before he went to sleep. Yeah, it's not a constructive post. That's not automatically scum, especially in isolation. He had 3 and a half hours to respond after Valenius brought up his question, and 15 minutes for a something on the IAmRobik wtf post. And he made an irrelevant joke post long past the joking stage. This is why I find it suspicious, because there's AMPLE time to make something at least tangentially relevant instead of a useless throwaway line then another sleep post. Everything else I've already explained previously. You can disagree with my reasoning. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
Im still here reading stuff, but at work so not enough time to post on it! Ill be home in like 6 hours (hopefully) | ||
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
On March 26 2014 21:25 Valenius wrote: Just so people dont think ivw run away~ Im still here reading stuff, but at work so not enough time to post on it! Ill be home in like 6 hours (hopefully) Alright, give some quick impressions of the events so far in that case. Who would you like to lynch? Don't need to be too detailed if you are busy right now, but some intial impressions would be nice. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On March 26 2014 21:21 Lord Tolkien wrote: This was again in line with what OnceKing said about sqrt and Robik's clearing of him based on sqrt's long string of multi-posts on HS. That is not a read on sqrt. This is: On March 26 2014 20:29 Pixalated wrote: The one thing that I can agree with LT about is the sqrts thing. Upon my reread of the thread I noted that he left AFTER onceking started talking policy and Robik started pressuring him (I initially thought that he left before). I find it odd that he didn't take the time to make at least a quick comment on it before going to sleep. Still, it isn't enough to judge imo, and I find it oddly suspicious how he reads him to be scummier than Cav, who has had some very faulty logic (will get to that in abit). This is also after you said he gave a read on sqrt. I'm not convinced and neither should be anyone else. TOWN: Who should we kill first, Cavalinho or Lord Tolkein? This is important. Cavalinho and Lord Tolkein need not reply. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On March 26 2014 21:13 Pixalated wrote: In that case why are you suspicious about Robik having the same reservations as you? You aren't answering the question. I'm now probably spending too much time talking about something that happened in another game, but I had confused his opposition to Amiko's fluff in his introduction post to an opposition to a lurker lynch policy, which would have been inconsistent. It was a suspicion based off meta, and something which I had misremembered. Robik's main argument is that he's just talking about lynching lurkers as opposed to actually doing it, and that he's speaking to the mechanics of it. You don't have to set that shit up with a post about how you want to go on quiet people. I disagree with that, as agreeing to a policy lynch as a group is still good in a newbie game, and given the purpose was to start a serious discussion. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
I read that post as a read. He states that sqrt shouldn't have been cleared so quickly as town for making that long stream of posts early on, and that sqrt is difficult to read because he posted nothing but random crap. I call that, broadly, a read. And it fit with what OnceKing said about sqrt (in regards to Robik's clearing of him). sqrt - jokes and one liners during RVS. Lots of 'em. Made no posts afterwards, yet. Mysteriously Robik's got a town read off of that. Where he got that read from. At this point we're debating semantics of what constitutes a read. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12084 Posts
On March 26 2014 21:39 Eden1892 wrote: No, what we're debating is whether to kill you or Cavalinho first. Ah, ignoring the rebuttal. ok, whatever you say. | ||
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Pixalated
Singapore38 Posts
I can see what LT means by me posting that on sqrt can constitute as a null read. In fact it matches since his next line is how my points were similar to those already in the thread, and my original point was indeed something that wasn't exactly fresh (Onceking said the same thing) whilst sqrt being a little suspicious (what I said later) wasn't mentioned by anyone else if I recall correctly. The trap thing is still really bad though, and I agree its really suspicious on how fast he revealed it with only me and you pushing him for it so far. Still it sort of makes sense as town to cut his losses on a bad decision, since I believe it would probably have flowed into cav and sqrt simply ignoring his question, and they wouldn't sheep someone under fire. Still a really bad trap of course, but I can sort of see this as really bad town play. I like your point about the time gap between the 'bait' and 'trap' though, and I think thats my biggest gripe with the entire trap thing. I think he agured the point that I brought up about the contradiction I pointed out pretty well, makes sense. Cav on the other hand hasn't done much to redeem himself, and I would like to see more from him. (specifically a GOOD explanation on why he found OK's initial post weird) | ||
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