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On March 26 2014 15:46 Eden1892 wrote:
No, I'm not. I'm not surprised that you would egregiously mischaracterize my argument instead of addressing it, but that doesn't mean it goes away.
What OnceKing did wasn't "weird" at all. You kept and keep pushing the idea that it is while refusing to talk about how it's weird or how it being weird matters. It reeks of someone trying to spread doubt and confusion instead of clarifying the game state. Your questioning him was awkward and looked like you were trying to look like you were getting something done without really doing anything helpful. You haven't been trying to help us find scum, you've just been making unhelpful comments about how weird someone's play is or references to past games that we aren't playing.
Ok, so helping trying to mark two other players as town isn't helping find scum. I'm guessing process of elimination doesn't really help finding scum at all then.
I also love how you're saying OK's start wasn't weird, since that's basically what kicked off Robik v OK in the first place. I wasn't even the only one that thought that, but you just think you're right because I agree with someone rather than coming up with ideas myself. How do you expect to coalesce votes and take someone out at the end of the day if you're just going to try to vote off people that like and agree with what others are saying?
Furthermore, I am addressing your argument. You say my reactions are fake and that I'm trying to spread confusion. Gauging reactions is basically your own PoV assessment, so all I can tell you is that you're wrong and hopefully you'll just catch on on your own. Spreading confusion is...I don't even understand what you're trying to say here. It's like...I don't understand what's going on, and so I ask questions and that's spreading confusion...Somehow.
Your case couldn't be more off the mark if you wanted it to be.
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OK town, so Cavalinho is either terrible at reading comprehension or trying to distort what I'm saying. Let's review.
Again it's not that he said OnceKing's start was weird, it's that he didn't do anything to figure out why it was weird or tell us how it was weird. He asked OK why OK made a post about policy lynching lurkers, OK said it was to get the town out of RVS. That's not weird. Cavalinho didn't bother to respond to him and then kept repeating himself about how weird it was. No explanation as to why or how that's weird, no attempt to develop OK's response, nothing.
His questions didn't have any apparent direction or purpose to them. He asked OK why OK made the post, OK gave a good answer aaaand... Cavalinho drops it like a hot potato. No follow up? Nothing? Why are we supposed to be convinced that OK is weird or scum or whatever when you're just asking questions to ask them and not developing any insights from them? He asserts that he was asking questions because he didn't understand what was going on, but you'll notice that he doesn't acknowledge OK's answer at all. Instead he starts playing reactively, answering OK's questions and then dropping the line of discussion. That's not what people do when they're trying to understand what's going on. He vaguely talks around the issue right before I prodded him, saying that he thinks OK's start was still weird, but that he "[doesn't] have any real reason to think [OK] is mafia" because of his "last accusatory post" (what post is this?) and he "seems townie, getting information and generally being one of those obvious town players" (this doesn't actually say anything about why he doesn't think OK is mafia; we know that he wouldn't think that because he thinks OK seems town, why does he?)
I also happen to think his OMGUS vote is him trying to look innocent because he's aware of his meta (not the post beforehand he noted that Robik townread him in a previous game because he OMGUS'd then), but that can go either way. What's telling is that he fails to develop his vote, he just puts it down and insists it'll be me or him today. That's dumb and not what a town player should be doing.
Cavalinho is my best read for mafia right now.
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Hello, I am the last to arrive.
Is anybody around?
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People are around! Or just were. It took so long to read the thread that new posts appeared while i was reading. Exciting.
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On March 26 2014 13:03 OnceKing wrote:
Cavalinho, what do you think of the fact that Robik seems to have an awful lot of reads so quickly?
You are going to love me OnceKing. I have reads on almost everybody.
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Let's start with 3 players who left before the action heated up:
sqrtofneg1
Valenius
Lord Tolkien
Starting with Lord Tolkien. He made a very early 'serious' vote. I think it was serious.
On March 26 2014 08:40 Lord Tolkien wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2014 08:06 OnceKing wrote:
Aha. Sqrt with the real dirt and LT lying. Lynch all liars!
Therefore,
##VOTE Lord Tolkien technically we're both right. My renewed OK scum sense is tingling. #unvote sqrtofneg1# vote OnceKing
When I read it the first time I thought he was saying his scum sense was OK. Now I realize OK = OnceKing and I guess OnceKing was scum in a previous game? Anyways this failed vote was followed by OnceKing posting his Lynch All Lurkers proposal, and then Lord Tolkien fixed his vote and commented on the proposal...
[B]On March 26 2014 08:50 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Given the past mafia game I play with you guys in, the lurkers were all mafia, I agree with that.
No reason to let them lurk for free.
There's a bit of a disconnect between thinking lynch all lurkers is a good proposal and thinking OnceKing is scum when OnceKing is the one proposing lynch all lurkers. The vote and the proposal are both happening at the same time.
So I have Lord Tolkien at the bottom of this set.
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OnceKing is likely town.
He's fearless, he's driving discussion, he's challenging people.
People he challenges:
Cavalinho
IAmRobik
Pixalated
Valenius, Cavalinho, LT, RJ, sqrt
The fearless really came out in the "truth or dare" with Cavalinho.
I also think the Lynch all Lurkers proposal comes from a town mindset.
1. It is likely to help the town. I'd guess that lynching from my "no opinion / weak lean / under the radar" set would have better results than lynching my strongest scum read today. How good could my scum read be today? But the under the radar guy today will probably be under the radar tomorrow and it won't get easier to lynch him.
2. It predictably drew negative attention. I think scum would instinctively know that having ideas is trouble.
So who posts a proposal that could help the town but not the poster? Only somebody who thought it was worth it... town.
I don't put a ton of weight on it but that's where I stand on Lynch all Lurkers.
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OnceKing's relationship with IAmRobik is worth examining. Robik has told us several times that he's the best. Initiating an attack on such a player would be very dangerous for a hypothetical scum OnceKing. What if Robik becomes a leader? What if he actually is the best? What scum wants that kind of attention? But OnceKing has come at Robik which makes OnceKing less likely to be scum. It would require OnceKing to be making an ego play or for them to be scum / scum.
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On the flip side, I do wish OnceKing offered conclusions of his own about more players. I know how he feels about Robik, but nobody else. So I can't quite lock him in as 100% to be town yet.
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Next I want to talk about Pixalated
A word about how I've been working:
I made written notes about 'interesting' posts. Who said it and what they said. I should have written my snap reactions but I incorrectly thought I would remember those. At the same time I had a rankings list of how town people are. Pixalated was on the very town side of things.
Now I check my notes to post about him and I wonder how in the world I thought that. A really odd disconnect.
I guess this is his best post:
On March 26 2014 13:08 Pixalated wrote:
I also don't see why you think Val is town just because he asked onceking to clarify his shit. It was a pretty useless question, it's easy to understand what onceking wanted to achieve with that post - create the atmosphere that no one can lurk and has to post.
But instead all he does is make a rather long post asking about potential situations blabla... When I think that it's pretty clear - if we have a solid read we lynch it, if not we lynch a lurker. Seems like he's trying to be helpful without actually being helpful.
He gets the same credit for challenging Robik. Also some credit for having a coherent thought about a read.
But on a second read my takeaway was I agree with a lot of what Pixalated said but so what? He didn't really do anything or take a stand right or wrong. So I give Pixalated a no opinion.
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IAmRobik...
IAmRobik has told us all he's amazing and he's town. I guess the mafia will tell us with their KP tonight if they agree with both of those. He's playing the game so I won't worry about it further today.
I do wish there was somebody else here to chat with. Even mafia!
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I like what Jarvis is doing here so far, but I'm gonna pick a bone over the whole challenging Robik thing; it's more about how and why you challenge than who you challenge. As town or scum I'm not afraid of challenging anybody, for example.
I think your conclusions hold up still because OnceKing and Pixalated have been challenging the right topics along the right lines for town.
So far I'm townreading OnceKing, Robik and Jarvis; scumreading Cavalinho. Gotta find a way to parse through the other four.
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Cavalinho...
Cavalinho first pinged me during the OnceKing Lynch all Lurkers discussion. The timeline:
16:40 OnceKing posts LynchAllLurkers
19:18 Cavalinho enters thread
20:15 Robik reacts negatively to LAL
20:16 Cavalinho echos Robik
On March 26 2014 12:16 Cavalinho wrote:
I am also curious about aforementioned shit
The timing is a problem. If Cavalinho had a problem with LAL why didn't he just post it? What was his problem with it anyways? He can't really say:
On March 26 2014 12:44 Cavalinho wrote:
OK is...Off. Like, his post is just...weird. I don't really know how to describe it, but it's like he says a thing about policy and it just kinda comes out of nowhere.
On another topic, why is it that you're asking me specifically? Is it because you already knew that I was weirded out by his post?
So why was it a problem again? Cavalinho is firmly on defense and struggling to say anything about anything:
On March 26 2014 12:54 Cavalinho wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2014 12:49 IAmRobik wrote:
I ask you because sqrt said he's off to bed and it seems that you and I are the only ones left here.
Back to the topic at hand, why didn't you give a read on the other two and deflect onto a pointless question about why I directed the question AT YOU. If I knew where you stood on people, if you expressed those opinions in the thread, I wouldn't have to ask you, now would I? OK is on. >.> In all seriousness, I don't really have any thoughts on sqrt and Val other than the fact that they're both null. Sqrt has been goofing off and Val has said stuff but none of it really feels relevant yet.
and here suddenly he knows why it's a problem... because Robik explained it:
On March 26 2014 13:01 Cavalinho wrote:
I'm actually going to agree with Robik. Why would you even bother talking about policy lynching when we're barely one step out of RVS?
Now that I think about it, I'm gonna go check our last game to see if OK did the same weird shit he's doing right now.
When I say struggling... he doesn't have his own thoughts about anything posted. His posts are reactions, deflections, and echoing the thoughts of others.
On March 26 2014 13:12 Cavalinho wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2014 13:08 OnceKing wrote:
I talked about policy to bring us out of RVS. Your turn. What do you think of the fact that Robik seems to have so many reads so quickly? He has outed two reads. I think that hardly constitutes "many reads." They sound somewhat stretched, but I don't think I'm ready to commit to interrogating anyone on that line of thinking when we have several players that haven't even posted yet.
This post has a significant logic fail. When fewer players have posted having "many reads" makes less sense than when more players have posted. By this point I think Cavalinho is scum and his plan is to echo Robik. How could he get in trouble saying what Robik says? Note this line implies Robik is town.
On March 26 2014 13:14 Cavalinho wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote:
Oh and here's another fun question for you Cav:
Why do you need me to answer your question in order to answer mine? Are we playing truth or dare (without dare)? Are you trying to get out of answering questions until later? No, I simply felt like you were dodging the question.
OnceKing feels so pure here and Cavalinho is on defense, afraid.
On March 26 2014 15:17 Cavalinho wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2014 13:47 Eden1892 wrote:
Other quick thoughts:
- Pixalated is correct to point out that OK brought the game out of the joke phase and now that I'm reading his last couple posts I'm nodding in agreement. Slight town lean because his thought process is following mine pretty well. Wouldn't clear him based off that but it's fine for a few hours in.
- OnceKing town lean for now, moved the game out of the joke phase, Robik tried pushing an opportunistic lynch on him; I think Robik is scum and busing his teammate so early is stupid.
- Cavalinho arguably looks worse than Robik for just echoing Robik's bad points and promising to go reread an old game then not posting any findings. And also because I got caught up playing Epicmafia at the same time. Looking over OK's last accusatory post, it looks quite a bit like what he was doing last game. He's pointing fingers and doing things that are generally pretty pro town. His start was weird, but I don't really have any real reason to think he's mafia right now, especially after all those explanations and actions. Seems townie, getting information and generally being one of those obvious town players. While we're on that topic, I can say that Robik's townreads tend to come early and often, sometimes on what can be perceived to be weird reasoning. That last game we all played together (speaking specifically to you, OK) he townread me because I OMGUS'd him like 20 minutes in or something. He wound up being such a strong player that he was shot N1. Look back on that and ask yourself if he's acting the same way as he did then, because from what I've seen, he makes his mind up pretty quickly and even had his vote wind up on scum. He seems townie thus far. Also, I'm going to #Unvote because we're actually playing the game and solving the mystery.
and now he walks back everything. Everybody is town. People are coming at him and he doesn't call them scum.
Well, until he gets voted. Then Eden is scum and it's a battle to the death.
Cavalinho has been tentative, defensive, echoing and then he got a case from eden and a vote and he switched to aggressive defense.
I think Cavalinho is scum.
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Eden1892 is my strongest town read.
The way he went after Rubik felt sincere and had logic. Then those two talked it out and he reversed himself. Again, it made sense with the posts. For a scum to make a case and then throw it away would be so wasteful. Especially since OnceKing is voting Rubik.
Eden's evolution on Cavalinho was so organic. His post about Cavalinho "arguably even worse" was almost an afterthought when he was on the Rubik warpath but it led him to investigate further.
Eden is willing to take initiative on topics. He has opinions on everybody who has posted enough to be read.
I feel very strongly about Eden being town.
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Wow that took a long time.
I'm done for tonight.
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I still need to read the LIII mafia game thoroughly. However.
OnceKing sounds town as all fk. I was originally suspicious of his initial "serious" post due to OK's early Day 1 behavior versus early Day 1 LII newbie mafia game and was going to comment on it, but I re-read the old thread and reversed my initial opinion on it (originally thought it was inconsistent, but I reread his case on Amiko and it didn't mention the lurker lynch policy). He's been pushing town towards active discussion since then, asking for reads, and generally steering conversation towards positive goals, so he's establishing himself as town thus far.
IAmRobik also feels town to me, though I still question why he feels OK's post is out of place given the context (unless it was scumbait, that was my first thought). The post is still useful pressure and discussion for town, though, and there is no reason for scum to be so forward, so early on in the day, especially with the possible game-states (no godfather game-state). And his posts subsequent read fairly town.
Valenius is super town in my eyes, he's cleared for me.
Pixelated is neutral or slightly scummy to me.
Eden feels even more town for me. He's actively pushing the Cavalinho case and scumhunting aggressively in Day 1, while being the most active contributor to the thread thus far. Clearest town poster in my mind, as he's giving reasoned arguments here.
Cavalinho sounds...well, aggressive in all his posts. And he's OMGUSing without presenting a case, period. But given his past game behavior, he also does this when he's town so I'm not sure if my scrumread on him is wrong. Like, this is almost a repeat of LII Day 1 in terms of the Cavalinho lynch progression, however without any substance from him. I'm leaving him as possible scum atm tho I'm confused by it. Maybe the most scummiest read I have, even his past town play aside. Like I'll answer your question when you answer mine. and No, I simply felt like you were dodging the question. should mark him as clear scum, but...might just be his playstyle.
I also happen to think his OMGUS vote is him trying to look innocent because he's aware of his meta (not the post beforehand he noted that Robik townread him in a previous game because he OMGUS'd then), but that can go either way. What's telling is that he fails to develop his vote, he just puts it down and insists it'll be me or him today. That's dumb and not what a town player should be doing.
This is actually a strong analysis of what I was trying to say.
You know what, Cavalinho isn't angry and pissed off enough to have the righteous indignation like his LII newbie game, nor still tries to contribute. Or hell, contribute an actual case for his OMGUSing.
sqrtofneg1 has thus far been fairly disconcerting to me. I indulged him with the Hearthstone convo, and I think that's irrelevant to the thread thus far. It was a fair shot at getting something going, if inflating his filter/post. After the first actual serious post to pop up Day 1 (the OK policy lynch), he posted this Fun fact: I've been mafia once, only once, in my fair amount of irl games. and didn't respond to the looming topic at hand, then had a sleep post. Like, its non-contributive lurking at best. There was definitely things available to comment on at the time of his sleep post. Hell, by the time of that post, IAmRobik had already made his wtf post about OnceKing's lynch policy post. It piggybacks off IAmRobik's joke posts, but he at least follows up with substance after there's clearly something to respond to. He still has time to become an active contributor, but seems to be a scum lurker to me. Probably my primary lynch target today because I'm still fking confused by the signals given off by Cavalinho's playstyle and posting patterns.
On March 26 2014 13:31 IAmRobik wrote:
RE: Sqrt
In what world does a mafia come into the game and start talking to himself for 10 posts? Mafia has all the reason in the world to sit back and not do shit and contribute when something is happening and then push some random town who is on the chopping blocks. I don't give a damn if it was 10 posts of filler about how he's doing today and how his HS run was going.
The exact same reason you were pushing on OK for: because it's good to make the appearance of contribution. idgaf about the HS posts too much, but the fact he continued the joke posting and made a sleep post before contributing anything useful makes me unhappy.
Quick point to RolandJarvis before the plunge, that was a continued joke post. I was jokingly referencing the LII newbie game where I was OMGUSing OK hard for focusing on me Day 1 (mostly for some inconsistencies in his case). Posted that and the correction right as OK was posting the policy lynch post (note the policy lynch post being nestled between that post and the edit), which is the first serious post of the game, which should have been a clue. I'm overall happy with your contribution, however, and I would recommend you read the LII newbie game, since quite a few of the players here were in that game (and should give you a general idea of our playstyles as town (I think all of us present played as town that game), so you can get a feel for us. You voiced the concern about OK only voicing his read on IAmRobik, but his playstyle is (at least, going off his LII and stated gameplay) to only give his strongest reads. So this isn't inconsistent or scummy for me, just how he plays. Just like how Cavalinho still confuses the fk out of me.
Or you might have and the mistaken use of punctuation in the post confused you.
Overall, I'm quite happy with the way this thread activity has been. no ded gaem
Also, my sleep schedule is fked up, so I may be responding at odd times such as this.
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Time well spent.
Jarvis is my strongest town read (besides myself durp) followed by OnceKing/Robik (equal).
Of the Inaktiv Fukstix Brigade I think I townread Valenius the most for questioning OK about his lurker policy, but I wouldn't clear him for it alone. I'm optimistic about him though, what little he's done has been solid and on-point. Just need to see more to be sure. Next is probably Pixalated because again, he's been on the right side (fmpov) of the "is OK weird" event. But that's not enough to clear him either. sqrt's opening was amusing and as a player having fun with the game I liked it, but it's obviously not telling me anything. Tolkein I can't remember saying anything of substance yet.
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DURP NINJA'D AGAIN GG
Strike the last comment on Tolkein I'm reading now
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Just saw RJ's analysis on the Cavalinho case.
I think between you and Eden, you've put up a very convincing case. And he clearly isn't pissed off enough about the whole lynching affair. There hasn't been a swear word or insult yet!
+ Show Spoiler +
At this stage my top scum reads are sqrt (I think he was in the LIII game, so I need to read that to gauge him fully), and Cavalinho.
To both Cavalinho and sqrt, who do you think is scum?
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Ehhhhhhhhhh. Not liking Tolkein's post either.
Highlights of my concerns:
- Reads on Valenius and Pixalated. ...how? Valenius asked some good questions to develop OnceKing's policy, but that's all. Certainly a good start but not nearly enough to declare him "super town" or "cleared." Especially in light of the fact that he said Pixalated is neutral-to-scummy... I have Pixalated as neutral-to-town if anything, but to be honest they've done virtually the same thing here (not post much, make solid contributions where they did). There's a lack of explanation for either read, which on its own doesn't say much, but...
- Has already managed to place almost everyone's alignments. He's got the ones I think are fairly obvious (myself, OnceKing, Robik), but then all of the low posters/unknowns that I have, he's already decided on them being town (Valenius) or worrying-to-scummy (sqrt, Pixalated), and I just don't see how he's managed to do that already. One thing that I've observed in my past games, across multiple groups/metas, is that mafia posting early reads lists like this tend to do one of two things: they either betray their knowledge of the gamestate by not being hesitant enough to declare people unknowns, or they overcompensate for their knowledge by trying to appear as lost as they can. In Tolkein's case I get the sense that his reads are a little too solid (e.g. Pixalated, Valenius).
- His position on Cavalinho is inconsistently soft wrt the rest of his list. Notice the "almost" above -- the one big exception is the guy that I personally think is obviously scum. He does some lip service to the idea (e.g. "these things should mark him clear scum"), but then handwaves every point he raises for Cavalinho on a shaky meta argument (e.g. "mark him as clear scum, but... might just be his playstyle). He says Cavalinho is "maybe the most scummiest read he has"*, but then declares sqrt his "probable" lynch target today. There's a lot of waffling on Cavalinho that isn't present with the others. (PREVIEW EDIT: Even concedes the case is strong, but still has sqrt as his top suspect. p l s)
- His rationale for sqrt is weak. Of a handful of inactives so far he's singling out one post of sqrt's (the "I've never drawn mafia" post) as the thing that's so disconcerting to him? Already zeroed in on sqrt being a scum lurker and wants to lynch him over aforesaid "maybe most scummiest read"*? That's just strange to me because nothing that sqrt has done has been alignment-indicative yet.
- Preview edit point: That last question is such a softball! Ideal to ask your fake scum read and your scum buddy, terrible as town. Why wouldn't he ask about the things Cavalinho and sqrt are doing that makes them suspicious to him?
*: minor point and not at all a linchpin in my case on him, but the double superlative looks really hard like he's overcompensating his suspicion to distance slightly, even as he says to lynch someone else
Tolkein right now reads pretty strongly like Cavalinho's partner, trying to deflect suspicion away from him with a weak, waffling concession and focus it on sqrt, who's low-hanging fruit right now. I think I still want Cavalinho more for D1 but either of them would be great and I want both out at some point (preferably "before we lose").
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Hey Tolkien, how is Val 'super town in my eyes, he's cleared for me.' He has posted like one post that isn't fluff, and you clear him based off just that? Is that because everyone here is reading him as town for some reason? (I don't see why but okay)
I agree with Eden's post about him. Furthermore from what I remember from reading his previous game (the one he mentioned) he was ALOT more active as compared to this. I will go take a peek at his filter there in abit.
@Tolkien Why am I neutral/slightly scummy? Elaborate please.
Cavalinho doesn't look too good as well.
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EPT
