EPTOn April 07 2014 11:41 Hopeless1der wrote:
My role, as claimed, is not useful to mafia.
My role, as claimed, is not useful to mafia.
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Doctor Who Mafia 2 - Page 11
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Just understand that your phrasing there implies that your role is not what you claimed. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Here's how I see it. First, let's show how your role benefits scum. Pretend N1 JJD/Rose/Cop checks me. Gumshoe/Iforget/Doctor protects me. Your PM is something like "Gumshoe visited your target" From this, you can conclude that Gumshoe has a night-visiting role. You know he is not on your scumteam, so you have identified a blue power role. You might also review Gumshoe's comments to get some idea of how he acted or who he visited. For instance, maybe you look at his D1 filter where he talks about picking me as a companion and conclude that he was breadcrumbing that he would protect me. From this, you can make a second conclusion: Rose visited me N1. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Pretend D1 kush visits me with the intent of killing me. Rose also visits me. Your PM is something like "Kushm4sta visited your target" Later in the game, people claim their roles and checks. Rose says n1 check was Amiko. You can conclude that Kushm4sta visited me. You also have a means of confirming who Rose is based on other claimed night actions. By looking at who showed up when, you can essentially confirm the identity of Rose. You also can confirm the way roleblocks work with each other. For instance, if you are town you know that Vivax was able to roleblock Austin (who is a roleblocker). So, you can determine that roleblocks targeting roleblockers have precedence and are effective. There's probably other things but those at least come to mind. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On April 07 2014 12:29 Hopeless1der wrote: Because...nuking tehpoofter twice is funny? I'm gonna be honest and say I did consider this. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Low priority Amiko - It's me. Austin - I'm pretty sure I would nuke austin before I nuke myself, but that is a tough call. Vivax - I've felt towny about him most of the game. I dislike some of his comments, but they don't read as scum to me. I haven't gone too deep into the vivax/kush relationship, but reading the quotes that austin and kita went through discussing their relationship suggests to me that Vivax and Kush are not currently scum partners. So, he's low on my nuke list given the kush flip. ------------------------- duck and cover priority? tehpoofter: Idle, but I expect he will post tonight cause he was just active in Catastrophe. Want to see how he talks. Kitaman27: His involvement with kush was a core part of austin's case and pretty compelling. The idea that kita was converted after tracking Djo feels right but I don't want to hang my hat on it yet. I watched that Dr. Who episode. Kita do you look like this? + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/AbdNVBL.png) hopeless1der: Looking into interactions between him and kush now, have a post in the works. I'm not done but currently I feel like he's a potential convert based on some changes in the way kush interacts with him, but it's not super strong. Thrawn2112: Not really sure. I feel like I've read this filter a few times and stuff doesn't stick out. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I am going to try to review kush’s and hopeless interactions now, in case anyone else wants to go through this as well I’ll make this so it’s easier to read. I skipped a few posts that seemed like they could apply to multiple people and not just hopeless/kush. FYI I don't include every single post, I omitted some that I thought were vague and might refer to more than one person, or if they didn't feel important to me, etc. Kush -> Hopeless Summary: Initial comments by kush is that he has no read on hopeless. D1 he finds a case against hopeless (from Toad/Foolishness) to be unconvincing. He questions kita on calling hopeless scum. Later, Hopeless becomes kush’s top suspicion. Later, says Hopeless is lynchbait, implying Hopeless is town but just looks scummy. Later, he adds Hopeless to the potential scumteam. Thoughts Kush’s reads on hopeless shift from unsure, then to scum, then to town. I can’t say at this point whether he is the most likely conversion, but I do think kush had some posts that defended hopeless that seem fake (for instance, calling hopeless lynchbait is a meta-read). Kush’s shifting view on hopeless to town might reflect a conversion. However, it could just reflect scum making up reads and being inconsistent. These posts might have been more helpful to make a case against kush and less to make a case against hopeless. + Show Spoiler + “kita, I don't have any relevant opinions on hopeless atm.” -> http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445571-doctor-who-mafia-2?page=15#291 “I think toads case on hopeless is unconvincing but it probably comes from town, unless toad stepped it up hard core since his last scum game.” http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445571-doctor-who-mafia-2?page=36#713 On April 01 2014 21:43 kushm4sta wrote: Questions for Kita why do you think this? Why is the boldified relevant? Have you ever played with town rayn before? I'm sure you have. In that game, was he not super sure about his reads d1? Why do you write more about how hopeless is scum, yet you push the rayn lynch? In your last post about rayn, which is not quoted, half of it is saying why you think he might be town. So basically, what made rayn a better lynch than hopeless yesterday? He lists hopeless as his top suspicion (for context, prior post by Austin: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445571-doctor-who-mafia-2?page=56#1119) On April 02 2014 03:33 kushm4sta wrote: Hopeless1der thrawn2112 JarJarDrinks Vivax Djodref Amiko gumshoe This was discussed earlier regarding kush/kita interactions. Here, kush is indirectly supporting a case on hopeless by defending kita’s thoughts. On April 02 2014 23:06 kushm4sta wrote: jjd, you are misunderstanding this post I think. Basically the important part is at the moment. Then a combination of two things happened. Rayn did some shit kita found scummy AND kita reconsidered the scumminess in rayn's play. To me, Kita's thought process is VERY transparent. He wrote at least two long ass posts dealing with his reads and the thought process behind them. His play would be extremely hard to pull off as scum I think. Furthermore, think of Kita as a person. I don't know him that well, but from what I've seen, I seriously doubt he would be the kind of flashy scum player to try to get rayn mislynched D1. I see kita as being a less confrontational scum player. Yes that meta is based on complete assumption. On April 02 2014 23:13 kushm4sta wrote: um vivax you know that hopeless is lynchbait right? usually lynchbait players act townie when they are scum and scummy when they are town. A lot of the things Hopeless is saying to me look tooscummytobescum. Like he is egging people on to vote him. On April 02 2014 23:19 kushm4sta wrote: It's like you are after hopeless for not realizing that 3p lynch is bad, when it's hardly a black and white issue. On April 03 2014 10:49 kushm4sta wrote: vivax why are you interested in kitaman's interest in hopeless' read on you? On April 04 2014 07:19 kushm4sta wrote: austinmcc - hella town kitaman27 - hella town Hopeless1der - probably town thrawn2112 - possible scum JarJarDrinks -possible scum Vivax - probably town Djodref - possible scum Amiko - possible scum Tehpoofter - possible scum On April 06 2014 03:12 kushm4sta wrote: sorry.amiko +thrawn + tehpoofter recruited Hopeless -> Kush Summary Hopeless’ statements on kush are actually pretty straightforward and consistent. TOWN TOWN TOWN TOWN TOWN Early on, Hopeless thinks kush is making sense and likes his posts. He calls kush confirmed town for the vigi shot (though he calls it semi-confirmed later in the day). He deflects off kush and attacked Vivax when he attacked kush. Hopeless’ first indication that he thinks kush may be scum is when he says he agrees with Austin’s case (D3) more than kita’s; based on process of elimination, he feels scum must be among poof thrawn kush. (it is weird that he omits kita here, might be something to revisit) Thoughts Suspicious but mostly consistent. I don't think kush ever felt super towny to me, but I definitely felt he was more towny given the way that he shot gumshoe. I wish he had put more comments on Austin's case because it feels strange that he went from seeing kush as nearly confirmed town to the more likely candidate. That said, it seems a little weird that he would bus, too. When he says he thinks kush is more likely, there was still only one vote on kush so I don't think there was any certainty kush would be the lynch that day. + Show Spoiler + On April 03 2014 01:17 Hopeless1der wrote: it just feels so strange to see kush this well put together. At any rate, I dont think any scum were on rayn right now. I dont like JJD's accusations against kitaman. "Kita knows I'm town" when kita essentially said he'd push the low tier players and gave examples of who those players would be. "Kita retconned his case on rayn". I fundamentally disagree with this statement because Kita's case relied on the fact that he tried to get rayn to look into his meta and rayn refused to do so. It was an ongoing process that rayn never pursued him and that is what kita found scummy about rayn. So I'd want to lynch JJD for tunneling kita while being completely sure that he's right every step of the way. He never wavers, never reconsiders. I'd also lynch gumshoe for actively refusing to play this game. This should be self explanatory. On April 03 2014 05:18 Hopeless1der wrote: I cant fathom wtf gumshoe was thinking. Whatever, kush confirmed town imo, amiko is pretty goddamn likely town. i'd like to lynch JJD or Toad. Toad because he keeps saying stuff like "i havent read that yet" but he's all up in thrawns grill for his read on rayn. On April 03 2014 06:42 Hopeless1der wrote: Ignore kush for the moment. Your thoughts on Toad? On April 03 2014 08:17 Hopeless1der wrote: 2. is pretty goddamn scummy if you ask me. On April 03 2014 10:06 Hopeless1der wrote: yeah i laffed, then just smh for a while. At least it semi confirms kush On April 03 2014 13:30 Hopeless1der wrote: Re: Massclaim rayn flipped town and wanted us to mass claim, so he thought it was a good idea. It worked out in handslaps PYP, though that was semi-open. btw that was shortly after Day2 started, not the lynch. And for the record I'm still FOR a mass claim if we can agree to it. Re: Shrink Claim In my defense, everyone else just kind of brushed it off and went along about their business the same as me. No one panicked and yelled OMG Y U LYNCH DOCTOR?! and I wanted rayn lynched...why would I draw attention to that fact? In hindsight yes this may make me look scummier but I had a scumread and felt that pointing out that the claim could be fake would cause people to scrutinize it and possibly swap over to gumshoe or slam, contrary to my preference. Re: response to kita -> kush 1-I think you mean Vivax 2-I found Vivax to be asking a lot of questions and refusing to put up his own discussion. Since the game opened I feel like he's been casually painting me scum, but someone (maybe you or thrawn) said that the fact that he's doing stuff instead of not doing stuff probably points to him being town, so I kind of disregarded him. However i think his questions are really open-ended and basically kush hits things pretty square with this conversation: It feels like Vivax is just quoting stuff and asking different people "and how does that make you feel?" like he's some glorified therapist. On April 04 2014 04:25 Hopeless1der wrote: Alternatively Vivax wants to know if he should convert Kush? On April 04 2014 05:25 Hopeless1der wrote: Amiko is pretty goddamn town. Every other post (with no provocation) he is constantly updating or explaining or expanding on stuff and has commented on almost every main point in the game afaik. Excellent play and something to be wary of conversions. JJD very likely town based on role speculation. Kush very likely town based on reaction to gumshoe. No hesitation, immediate shot. I feel scum would have tried to go to their QT all "wtf he claimed my role do I kill him?" before pulling the trigger. Thrawn good activity Vivax I dunno Toad is a useless pile of garbage this game. Kita seems like he's working towards a town-oriented goal. BIRDGOD goes #squak, very town. no idea about djo or poof. On April 06 2014 22:06 Hopeless1der wrote: Ughh I'm so hungover. Dont like vivax for mafia. Agree with Austins meta read more than kita's case. I need to give thrawn a proper reread, but my PoE for scum are poof thrawn kush. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
When did you first think kush might be scum? Why did you find Austin's case more compelling than Kita's given your game-long town read of kush? Why not defend kush since you had been townreading him? Also are you in a zombie army? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
One min Vivax I'll reread your comment on the alignment slip | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Work with me to clarify your thoughts a little. If I understand this post, this is the point you are making: First, hopeless1der says he is unsure of Vivax. Then, hopeless1der says JJD must be town, because if he was scum he would get hopeless and Vivax lynched. Your argument is that Hopeless is saying he sees you (Vivax) as town, which is inconsistent with his prior unsure read? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On April 07 2014 13:00 Vivax wrote: So how does hopeless that previously thought I was scummy and then goes to null say that JJD is town for not wanting to lynch me? Because I don't think hopeless is saying that JJD doesn't want to lynch you. Rather, hopeless1der is saying that JJD could have given false information regarding his night action result to say that Vivax/Hopeless1der couldn't have done what they said they did. It's hard for me to make much of this because I don't really agree with hopeless there. I mean, it seems to me that if JJD was scum and lied, he would essentially force a 1v2 (JJD vs. Vivax & Hopeless). If we take your point of view, then he is setting himself against at least one town. If you got lynched, flipping town, he would be the next lynch/nuke target basically just get a 1 for 1 which seems like a poor trade for scum. I know that your point isn't that hopeless' comment is wrong, it's that hopeless sees you as town. But, I think even that is sort of off because his comment seems focused on JJD's actions and is explainable if he sees himself as town regardless of your alignment. I will go back to your inconsistency read in a second though since that part feels more understandable | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On April 07 2014 13:13 Amiko wrote: @Hopeless When did you first think kush might be scum? Why did you find Austin's case more compelling than Kita's given your game-long town read of kush? Why not defend kush since you had been townreading him? Also are you in a zombie army? @hopeless I know Vivax answered these for you but I would actually appreciate if you can chime in on them. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Sorry if we are overwhelming you a bit, but what is this post trying to say? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=21139682 Reading it, it felt like you were scumreading kush but I didn't understand why since he had already flipped. I don't see it as particularly scummy so this is a lesser priority for me, but I want to make sure I didn't miss a point you were trying to make. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
First, if the scumometer announces its results we know that he didn't use it because there was no announcement in thread. Well, there is a remote chance that we will get scumometer results in some future post, but it seems pretty unlikely since we didn't get an announcement in the night post. So, let's assume kush had the scumometer and its results are private. As scum, kush already knows the results of using the scumchecker on his scum partners. So, as scum, I would never use the scumcheck on my partner. If I were scum, I would probably want to use the item, just to ensure it can't somehow be reclaimed by town. In that case, I'd target some random town, probably a VT, just to see if they come back as a third party role (or potentially as a miller). I don't really expect a second 3p role, but it's possible  (I wrote some stuff about daleks here, moved to the end of the post)Basically, I feel scum has a slight incentive to use the scumometer because (1) it consumes the item, ensuring it cannot be used against them, and (2) in a rare case, it might reveal a potential 3p who could be a scum ally. I guess there is some possibility of using the scumchecker on a scumally to ensure that the player has not been turned back into a town. But, an un-converter role seems like it would be OP for reasons we discussed earlier in the thread so I don't think it would exist (you get unconverted and just reveal all your scum former-allies). RANDOM ASIDE I WROTE MID-POST ABOUT DALEKS / SERIAL KILLERS Actually, I sort of expected a serial-killer role (maybe a dalek?). With 2 KP last night, maybe that's possible... if there is KP and a conversion tonight, we should consider players who were not roleblocked as potentially SK. This doesn't feel that likely to me, however - alternating nights system feels like it makes more sense. I don't have any particular reason to believe in an SK right now, except that it might offset the high number of town protective roles somewhat. Also, thematically, the Dr. Who episode referenced in this game doesn't seem to have any daleks. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Kita, I don't know for sure if the better nuke is you or hopeless. If you are town, please use what time you can to comment on the connections and I'll do my best to find remaining scum, I think we have a fair shot. I can only hope that the spirit of rayn guides this nuke. ##Nuke kitaman27 If I don't get to talk to you tomorrow (mornings are tough for me to post), gg! Also, as a weird and amusing note, in the Catastrophe Game, Doctor Who just died (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447045-catastrophe-mafia?page=172#3425) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
 Did I pick wrong?If people in thread can look at interactions between kush and poofter if there are any that could be helpful I'll be back this pm | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On the other hand, feeling relatively good about the kita nuke since he hasn't chimed in. We'll see. My preference is that tomorrow hopeless claims what he saw before anyone confirms their night actions. Since according to his role, as claimed,  the watched person should be randomly selected, this information has a fair chance of being useless. But, if he does see anyone I'd like to have that information handy since maybe it'll be inconsistent with other actions and help us get potential scum down to two or three people.Stay safe and stay town :3 | ||
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