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Golden Sun: The Lost Age Mafia Djinn Edition - Page 189

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
May 25 2014 01:05 GMT
#3761
couldn't you name yourself some cool match thing and not some shitty useless thing you learn about in high school
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
May 25 2014 01:06 GMT
#3762
math thing
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
May 25 2014 01:06 GMT
#3763
oh yeah i don't trust marv but i don't think we need to do anything about it at the moment.

i liked blueuy yesterday and i don't care for the case on him
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
sqrtofneg1
Profile Blog Joined November 2013
Canada1159 Posts
May 25 2014 01:06 GMT
#3764
What do you suggest?
Imaginary
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
May 25 2014 01:07 GMT
#3765
This is why large games suck.

The start is super chaotic and annoying then everyone stops playing.
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
May 25 2014 01:09 GMT
#3766
On May 25 2014 10:06 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
What do you suggest?

actually playing mafia for cool points to counterbalance those lost from your name in the eyes of some?
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
May 25 2014 01:10 GMT
#3767
how about eigenvector
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
sqrtofneg1
Profile Blog Joined November 2013
Canada1159 Posts
May 25 2014 01:10 GMT
#3768
On May 25 2014 10:09 layabout wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 25 2014 10:06 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
What do you suggest?

actually playing mafia for cool points to counterbalance those lost from your name in the eyes of some?

Hilarious.

I think I've done more than you this game so far.
Imaginary
sqrtofneg1
Profile Blog Joined November 2013
Canada1159 Posts
May 25 2014 01:10 GMT
#3769
On May 25 2014 10:10 kushm4sta wrote:
how about eigenvector

That sounds weird.
My name has a special character in it.
√-1
Imaginary
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
May 25 2014 01:10 GMT
#3770
Hmm I may be willing to reconsider BlueyD. To some degree it can be telling when a player is only motivated enough to contribute when they are on the hot seat, but the post itself was pretty reasonable. I think the biggest thing will be to see if he will continue to provide content or if he goes back to his previous ways after votes come off him.

##Unvote

Valenius is still on my scum list. He didn't have much to say on day one and he hasn't said anything yet on day two. He was one of the people who seemed to indicate that they would be on board for a Odin lynch due to a good "case" rather than calling Odin mafia.

On May 23 2014 03:55 Valenius wrote:
Yeah, that's a reasonable case. Votes going on Odin in a bit unless i find anything in the filter of one/two others first.


At 14:55 he mentions that he will vote Odin unless he finds a better case from a few filters. 15 minutes later he posts his case on hapa coming to a scum conclusion. He obviously couldn't have spent much time looking elsewhere during this time due to how quickly he posted it. So if the only person he is looking at is someone without any votes, his statement about finding a better person to vote for isn't really valid. I would think he would be looking at people like Val or tam at that point. Seems like he wanted to show he had a scum read on someone before throwing down his vote on Odin.

Based on content, I don't recall steveling standing out as scummy, aside from maybe a couple buddy attempts, but his role claim concerns me the most. The claim would mean he is more concerned about letting to town know that he was shot, than using the role to absorb future shots.

On May 24 2014 05:05 Steveling wrote:
My role is Lord Babi, my 4 Lemurian Draught casks allow me to survive the next kp targeted on me by consuming them.

It doesn't clarify if the bullets are refunded.


A four shot self-protect seems more powerful than I would expect out of a town role. He is essentially bulletproof at that point.

I've lost my patience with thrawn. I want to lynch him and possibly would consider him my preferred lynch. He has even done this a couple of times in past mafia games, going the entire game without posting.

For someone who everyone was ready to kill off most of day one, he has gotten off pretty easy today. I'm willing to understand a busy schedule, but he really better making up for it in the final 24 hours by posting three times as much content. If he shows up and goes back to trolly mode with a read on 1-2 players I would be willing to lynch.

Looking at Cephiro's scum games, he has posted those monster walls of text early in the game multiple times as each alignment. I'm not willing to assume he is town based on effort there, especially since the content of the case wasn't very convincing. He hasn't posted since the start of day one.

I still need to look at kush. I felt the Foolishness case was pretty easy to throw together. I'm having trouble sensing a time commitment here. I remember him calling jampi town in passing through, which reminded me of his behavior in the Aperture game.

I think I'd prefer thrawn over meat if we're going to go with a inactive lynch.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
May 25 2014 01:12 GMT
#3771
why thrawn over meat
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
May 25 2014 01:17 GMT
#3772
On May 25 2014 10:12 kushm4sta wrote:
why thrawn over meat


Seems like thrawn is lurking, while meat is inactive and thrawn has past history of lurking as mafia. Showing up just to post "you shouldn't lynch me" annoyed me a bit as well. I have higher expectations of thrawn, though I'm not too familiar with meat. I wouldn't oppose votes on meat though considering his "Im going to play my trademark lazy town until i need to try hard" statement.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
BlueyD
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada437 Posts
May 25 2014 01:17 GMT
#3773
Wow, sqrtofneg1’s last post...
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 25 2014 07:47 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Okay guys. Back again.
I'm not so sure about today's lynch so far. It seems like we have 3 or 4 main guys to lynch:

Kush
Tambo
BlueyD
and Meat.

I have a few questions for each of you.

@Kush:
What have you done to help town this game?
Who is your top town read? Scum read?

@Tambo:
What is your view on Kush and BlueyD so far?
What is the most significant post of D2 so far?

@BlueyD:
You've made cases on Yellow and Cav so far. Who else do you see as potential scum?

@Meat:
Why aren't you active?
Do you have anything to contribute?


There is no way this guy is reading the thread and asking me what my reads are after that giant post I made today. His post manages to say nothing at all about why he scumreads these people in particular. Let me say it like this, sqrt: Among some others, I scumread you.
---
On May 25 2014 07:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
you shouldnt lynch me. it's in your best interests to keep me alive


Oh come on. I gave you a free pass for a lazy day 1 and was willing to extend that to day 2 as well but this is just not acceptable. I’ve seen you do some good stuff in Yuma as town, I’ve seen you find scum, I’ve seen you pull a big play. The last thing I expected from you was starting the game with a defensive soft blue claim before even bothering to try analysis. I don’t buy it one second.

Patience officially lost.

##vote thrawn
Zealot Chaaaaarge!
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
May 25 2014 01:18 GMT
#3774
oh ive been waiting on valenius too

TAKE NOTE:
marv said that he and BH were confirmed town to each other but i cannot for the life of me find BH agreeing with this which should have been a priority of his the moment he saw that marv had written it. If they are confirmed to each other regardless of whether if helps us now we need to know it before one of them flips. It would leave us exposed to a flip manipulating role but since it's alignment flip it would be a ridiculous level of host setup bullshit for such a role o be there.
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
May 25 2014 01:37 GMT
#3775
On May 25 2014 10:18 layabout wrote:
oh ive been waiting on valenius too

TAKE NOTE:
marv said that he and BH were confirmed town to each other but i cannot for the life of me find BH agreeing with this which should have been a priority of his the moment he saw that marv had written it. If they are confirmed to each other regardless of whether if helps us now we need to know it before one of them flips. It would leave us exposed to a flip manipulating role but since it's alignment flip it would be a ridiculous level of host setup bullshit for such a role o be there.

Call me a fool and hypocrite, but.

Say again? No CHUPAZI, no grammar bads, I think I might possibly get what you are saying. I believe it is not complex but my duncery requires you state it differently
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
May 25 2014 01:47 GMT
#3776
On May 25 2014 10:37 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 25 2014 10:18 layabout wrote:
oh ive been waiting on valenius too

TAKE NOTE:
marv said that he and BH were confirmed town to each other but i cannot for the life of me find BH agreeing with this which should have been a priority of his the moment he saw that marv had written it. If they are confirmed to each other regardless of whether if helps us now we need to know it before one of them flips. It would leave us exposed to a flip manipulating role but since it's alignment flip it would be a ridiculous level of host setup bullshit for such a role o be there.

Call me a fool and hypocrite, but.

Say again? No CHUPAZI, no grammar bads, I think I might possibly get what you are saying. I believe it is not complex but my duncery requires you state it differently

CLICK ME
On May 24 2014 06:43 marvellosity wrote:
anyway BH and I are confirmed town to each other, so can we just stop this please?


bh was around bh totally ignored this. Major wtfs if they are both town and and confirmed to each other and that happened
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
May 25 2014 01:50 GMT
#3777
On May 25 2014 09:14 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 25 2014 09:09 ritoky wrote:
On May 25 2014 08:51 marvellosity wrote:
ritoky - a question if I may.

Why is Hapa particularly suspicious because he finds people with low filter length scummy, when the large majority of the game is doing the same thing? All the main wagons/suspicions are generally on low filter-length people, so why is Hapa doing so particularly egregious, but not anyone else?
Lastly, this is just a gut read, but I get the read that a lot of his posts are sending out feelers. He doesn't ever go all-in or really push. He sends out feelers to see if there's support. Then later he pushes if there is or drops it if there is not. For example I am a neutral read in his reads above, but as soon as layabout starts getting angry at me, Hapa is behind him giving him a little boost. He is pretty much scum in my mind.

Could you elaborate on this at all? Some more examples with quotes?


Well, I think that a lot of the main wagons/suspicions are not very good as you can see by my reads. And I think the people pushing on them deserve to be examined in regards to if you feel they are just trying to get a ML on someone they perceive to be an easy target or if there is real grounds there. Outside of jampidampi, I personally am not really sold on any of the other low filter count cases. I guess I could be convinced on sqrt, but that's cuz I have no clue about that guy.

However the difference is that most people pushed on 1 or 2 of those guys. Hapa pushed on ALL of them. His scum/leaning scum reads above are basically all of those people, and then when one or the other sticks (like with layabout pushing on me) he starts pursuing that one further. It just looks like fishing for an easy ML with a shotgun imo.

As for examples with quotes. If you still want those then I will be happy to oblige in about an hour after the 2nd half of the sounders game.

Honestly the more you post the better, so yes I'll take you up on the examples when you have time. No rush ^^

Again when you're ready, could you pick out the suspicions that Hapa made that you don't think are logical or genuine? Because you can disagree with someone's reads but that doesn't mean that person is faking it.

With regards to jampidampi, do you take into the account any of the past games/history with him that I talked about recently? Does that affect your read, if not, why?



I will start with the jampidampi stuff because it is shorter: does it affect my read? Not really unfortunately. The problem with past games that I wasn't a part of as evidence is that it is really hard for me to connect with them. I have played a lot of mafia outside of TL, and in those games there's a level of emotional connection/investment that isn't there when you read/observe a game that you're not part of. Also, the information you're provided at the start of the game colors your perspective on the game substantially. So basically what I am saying is that I wasn't a part of the game, and while I appreciate the information and it helps in regards to tone and posting style; it won't help with the feelings part of the read because I wasn't emotionally invested in that game at all.

This is kinda related to both Hapa and jampidampi, but you said look for things that don't look logical. I guess this may just be a difference in gameplay perspective, but I think often times the people who try to be the absolute most logical all the time tend to be a bit scummier for me. I like to moreso look for things that are odd or don't make a lot of sense, things that are predicated on people having more info than me, and things that just don't feel right. That's how I feel about jampi. Bunnies said "I will never lynch MZ this game", MZ was like "WHAT? thats scummy" which felt genuine and made him my #1 town, and jampi said "You're scummy for finding that scummy MZ", which to me feels just completely weird and that feeling overrules your past game stuff. Call me an emotional dude if you want.

So then, what's odd or feels off about Hapa. Well geript was critical of my tambo read and wtf happened to it, and I personally think that Hapa's is even weirder.

On May 22 2014 07:02 Hapahauli wrote:
Alright finished reading the thread, and my thoughts haven't changed too much.

mtamburini's still my lynch of choice today.

I've already made some thoughts on her larger quote-bomb post...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=38#745
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=40#787

...and foolishness has a post on her as well...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=55#1087

Just to add to this though, I found this post which is all sorts of WAT:
Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 12:39 mtamburini wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 21 2014 11:45 Cephiro wrote:
First up, the thoughts behind my questioning. While initially reading the thread I noticed 27ninja is a very cooperative person. Which is why I started the whole exchange with her.

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:
If I'm avoiding your question, it's because I have a pretty good damn reason as to why.
But because you are being persistant, the ones I have my eye on are Steveling, WaveofShadow and Tehpoofter.


She takes part in the discussion a lot and actively, aiming to contribute (or look like contributing.)

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 07:30 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 07:28 jampidampi wrote:
Before I continue, were you annoyed with my guestions?


No, questions are good. They get reads. Reads are good.

So the questions were not annoying. I was more annoyed by the fact you said I was avoiding what you were asking.

I think I had made it clear as to why. But please continue. I want to hear more.


Her intention is to try and play as honestly as possible. Which again, is not a bad thing from a town perspective, but if you roll scum and try to play with the least amount of lies possible, it will be hard. The point of interest here is her admitting her annoyance to being called out on her play. She encourages others to share the reasons on hers, yet withholds her own for "reasons", are excused as:

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:
But this doesn't necessarily mean they are scum. I rather read more of their play and interactions before I straight out call someone mafia. The majority of these people I haven't played with, and this is my second forum game.

If I don't have logic behind my reads, where does that put me? As a freaking town more likely to get mislynched.

So hold your horses, let me get my reads, and then we'll talk.


While I definitely agree with the logic behind it, her reasoning doesn't seem sincere. It's as if she wants to put content into the thread, but avoid (for now), making any decisions that may come to haunt her play later. Specifically: She doesn't want to be read as scum. Obviously, no town player does, but her play is (even self-admittingly) aimed at not being read as scum. Even if you are read as scum as a townie, it doesn't mean you can't manage to prove your town-ness. Surely, it's an uphill battle, but for someone putting as much effort as her in the game seems unlikely to be _that_ scared of being a misread as a town. Rather, I feel the fear comes from other players correctly reading her as scum.

Analysis break: My questions, the reasons behind it, and my conclusions of her replies.

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 10:28 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 10:27 Cephiro wrote:
Confirming one thing, are you asking for my reasons as for:

1) Why I'm reading you as mafia?
2) Why I'm voting on you?


Well I assume you are voting me because you are reading me as mafia.

So, why are you reading me as mafia?


The first exchange. My question here aims at finding the natural level of her thought process. It may not be the best comparison, but think about chess. What I'm aiming to find here is whether she thinks about:

1) The current move
2) The reasons behind the current move
3) The follow-up to the current move

Or a multitude of the above. As you can see, she instantly jumps into an assumption that I vote her because I read her as mafia. She doesn't take her thought process further (into different possibilities), into questions such as:

"Would he vote for me for a reason other than suspecting me as mafia?"

Instead, she takes it for granted that I suspect her to be mafia. It fits well with her wanting to play as honestly as possible, trying not to doubt the claims of others. This I feel is a trait belonging to the person.

So here I establish the fact that she doesn't think things ahead. Her thought process is not zero though, but considering the current step with the information given to her comes more naturally. (There are people who naturally start thinking multiple steps ahead.)

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 10:46 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 10:39 Cephiro wrote:
I will have to respond to your question with another to stay true to my motives.

If I didn't consider you as mafia, why would I be voting for you?

Even if my replies seem very off to you, please do respond. You're under evaluation.


If you don't consider me as mafia, you shouldn't be voting me.

The only reason outside of you considering me as mafia for why you would vote for me is this: you want to get a read on me via my reactions to your voting on me to see if I react poorly or more town favored. This is only used if you don't have a read on me from what I've previously posted.

This can also lead to reads from other people if they begin questioning you or agreeing with you.

So again, why are you reading me as mafia?


Here is my followup. My question is intentionally aimed to hint at a possibility of thinking outside the box. As I came into the conclusion that she doesn't naturally by instinct start thinking things too many steps ahead, I wanted to see the reaction that would come after hinted towards doing such.

Her response is quite interesting. She does correctly analyze on scenario, that is, if I didn't have a proper read and wanted to gain more information on her. There are many others she does not think about however. What I'm most interested in, is this crucial miss: She does not at all consider a possibility where I am scum. Ding ding, alarm bells anyone?

Note how she points out that if I don't really consider her as mafia, I shouldn't be voting for her. Yet at the end of her post, she asks why I'm reading her as mafia. This means that she thinks (knows?) of me being a town player suspecting her, rather than any other possibility. Why could I not be a scum player trying to start a wagon on her? She doesn't even go through this option at all, even after being hinted to think outside the box. It's as if she knows I'm town. That's not possible unless she's scum.

On to my third question:

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 11:08 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 10:54 Cephiro wrote:
One last question before I will answer your question.

I already know you read me as town. If you had a strong scumread on me however, would you go all-out to make me the lynch of the day right away?


I like how confident you are in yourself. As for reading you as town, that's yet to be determined.
If I had a strong scumread on you, yes, I would probably push on you to get you lynched. As for right away, it depends. If I think I can have support, I'll push right away. If I don't think I'll have any support, I'd need t find evidence that can prove or atleast put into speculation that you are mafia.

So, your answer?


This question was mainly to confirm. I was fairly certain that she does not intentionally downplay her ability to mislead her opponent. Combined with the logical deduction of her naturally not thinking ahead, and with her honest tendency to answer questions, I have no reason to believe she'd be lying about this one either. It would be possible to downplay or not reveal your scumread to try and trap a person into a situation which essentially confirms them as scum to other players, or many shenanigans of the kind. Her response however is strictly related to her own confidence about her read. If she's sure about her read, she'll go for it (no downplaying). If she's unsure, she'll work to be able to trust her read enough to convince others. (Upping her own play.)

With this I come into the conclusion that she is not downplaying her abilities when responding to others, or in any questions that she replied to me. This is exactly why I consider the 2nd question where she does NOT EVEN CONSIDER ME AS POSSIBLE SCUM extremely alarming. Also take in consideration how interested in she is in the reasons why I suspect her to be mafia. She doesn't just ignore and wait for me to actually provide something, but she actively asks for it again and again. If not combined with the above, I would see this as a townie trait, but I feel she is trying to get to know her mistakes/flaws in early play so she doesn't make the same mistakes later on.

TLDR:

1) Is afraid of being seen as scum
2) Extremely co-operative due to not wanting to be looked upon badly, refer to point 1.
3) Ignores the possibility of the player questioning her being scum.
4) When suspected, wants to know the flaws in her play to not repeat the mistake later

Like literally, for one moment she doesn't think I could be scum trying to push her for mislynch.

27ninjabunnies is mafia, and needs to be lynched. My vote stays where it is.

Opinions?


Goddamn bunnies back to scummy now, I need you to pretend your formaled and defend yourself. He brings up all the points I wanted to kill yellow in other game. Do I need to claim Bird Jesus again and say im going to shoot you and see if I get roleblocked?


She quote's ceph's giant case on Bunnies and basically blindly agrees with it. There's no indication in this post that she's actually read the damn thing - it's almost like she looks at the case, sees it's big, and just sheeps it.

Furthermore, the bolded comment is incredibly strange, given that yellow flipped town in the game in-question. You'd think she would exhibit more pause after wanting to lynch a townie for similar rationale, but instead she bolsters her suspicions with it... that just makes very little sense from a town perspective.

Of all the points against her, I think this is the most compelling.


Ritoky/Valenius

I've seen these two mentioned as possible scum candidates. Austin's case on Ritoky is somewhat compelling, however I don't think it takes into account the sheer difference between a mini-newbie game and a 32-person monster-spamfest. The wishy-washiness to me could be explained by how intimidating/confusing this thread is to a newer player. Hell I'm having problems keeping track of this myself, and I'm considered a "vet."

All and all, I agree that they're playing differently than their town metas have shown in the past, but I think that it could be explained by the difference in gametypes.



This is the beginning of it.

Then tambo starts to come back and they have some exchanges, all of which it seems like hapa comes out on the negative side of.

On May 23 2014 01:13 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2014 01:08 mtamburini wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2014 00:57 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2014 00:53 mtamburini wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2014 00:51 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2014 00:45 mtamburini wrote:
Fuck me i gotta read 50 pages since I was last online how the fuck did I get put up for a lynch!


I'd like your explanation to this:
Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 12:39 mtamburini wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 21 2014 11:45 Cephiro wrote:
First up, the thoughts behind my questioning. While initially reading the thread I noticed 27ninja is a very cooperative person. Which is why I started the whole exchange with her.

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:
If I'm avoiding your question, it's because I have a pretty good damn reason as to why.
But because you are being persistant, the ones I have my eye on are Steveling, WaveofShadow and Tehpoofter.


She takes part in the discussion a lot and actively, aiming to contribute (or look like contributing.)

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 07:30 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 07:28 jampidampi wrote:
Before I continue, were you annoyed with my guestions?


No, questions are good. They get reads. Reads are good.

So the questions were not annoying. I was more annoyed by the fact you said I was avoiding what you were asking.

I think I had made it clear as to why. But please continue. I want to hear more.


Her intention is to try and play as honestly as possible. Which again, is not a bad thing from a town perspective, but if you roll scum and try to play with the least amount of lies possible, it will be hard. The point of interest here is her admitting her annoyance to being called out on her play. She encourages others to share the reasons on hers, yet withholds her own for "reasons", are excused as:

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:
But this doesn't necessarily mean they are scum. I rather read more of their play and interactions before I straight out call someone mafia. The majority of these people I haven't played with, and this is my second forum game.

If I don't have logic behind my reads, where does that put me? As a freaking town more likely to get mislynched.

So hold your horses, let me get my reads, and then we'll talk.


While I definitely agree with the logic behind it, her reasoning doesn't seem sincere. It's as if she wants to put content into the thread, but avoid (for now), making any decisions that may come to haunt her play later. Specifically: She doesn't want to be read as scum. Obviously, no town player does, but her play is (even self-admittingly) aimed at not being read as scum. Even if you are read as scum as a townie, it doesn't mean you can't manage to prove your town-ness. Surely, it's an uphill battle, but for someone putting as much effort as her in the game seems unlikely to be _that_ scared of being a misread as a town. Rather, I feel the fear comes from other players correctly reading her as scum.

Analysis break: My questions, the reasons behind it, and my conclusions of her replies.

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 10:28 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 10:27 Cephiro wrote:
Confirming one thing, are you asking for my reasons as for:

1) Why I'm reading you as mafia?
2) Why I'm voting on you?


Well I assume you are voting me because you are reading me as mafia.

So, why are you reading me as mafia?


The first exchange. My question here aims at finding the natural level of her thought process. It may not be the best comparison, but think about chess. What I'm aiming to find here is whether she thinks about:

1) The current move
2) The reasons behind the current move
3) The follow-up to the current move

Or a multitude of the above. As you can see, she instantly jumps into an assumption that I vote her because I read her as mafia. She doesn't take her thought process further (into different possibilities), into questions such as:

"Would he vote for me for a reason other than suspecting me as mafia?"

Instead, she takes it for granted that I suspect her to be mafia. It fits well with her wanting to play as honestly as possible, trying not to doubt the claims of others. This I feel is a trait belonging to the person.

So here I establish the fact that she doesn't think things ahead. Her thought process is not zero though, but considering the current step with the information given to her comes more naturally. (There are people who naturally start thinking multiple steps ahead.)

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 10:46 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 10:39 Cephiro wrote:
I will have to respond to your question with another to stay true to my motives.

If I didn't consider you as mafia, why would I be voting for you?

Even if my replies seem very off to you, please do respond. You're under evaluation.


If you don't consider me as mafia, you shouldn't be voting me.

The only reason outside of you considering me as mafia for why you would vote for me is this: you want to get a read on me via my reactions to your voting on me to see if I react poorly or more town favored. This is only used if you don't have a read on me from what I've previously posted.

This can also lead to reads from other people if they begin questioning you or agreeing with you.

So again, why are you reading me as mafia?


Here is my followup. My question is intentionally aimed to hint at a possibility of thinking outside the box. As I came into the conclusion that she doesn't naturally by instinct start thinking things too many steps ahead, I wanted to see the reaction that would come after hinted towards doing such.

Her response is quite interesting. She does correctly analyze on scenario, that is, if I didn't have a proper read and wanted to gain more information on her. There are many others she does not think about however. What I'm most interested in, is this crucial miss: She does not at all consider a possibility where I am scum. Ding ding, alarm bells anyone?

Note how she points out that if I don't really consider her as mafia, I shouldn't be voting for her. Yet at the end of her post, she asks why I'm reading her as mafia. This means that she thinks (knows?) of me being a town player suspecting her, rather than any other possibility. Why could I not be a scum player trying to start a wagon on her? She doesn't even go through this option at all, even after being hinted to think outside the box. It's as if she knows I'm town. That's not possible unless she's scum.

On to my third question:

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2014 11:08 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 21 2014 10:54 Cephiro wrote:
One last question before I will answer your question.

I already know you read me as town. If you had a strong scumread on me however, would you go all-out to make me the lynch of the day right away?


I like how confident you are in yourself. As for reading you as town, that's yet to be determined.
If I had a strong scumread on you, yes, I would probably push on you to get you lynched. As for right away, it depends. If I think I can have support, I'll push right away. If I don't think I'll have any support, I'd need t find evidence that can prove or atleast put into speculation that you are mafia.

So, your answer?


This question was mainly to confirm. I was fairly certain that she does not intentionally downplay her ability to mislead her opponent. Combined with the logical deduction of her naturally not thinking ahead, and with her honest tendency to answer questions, I have no reason to believe she'd be lying about this one either. It would be possible to downplay or not reveal your scumread to try and trap a person into a situation which essentially confirms them as scum to other players, or many shenanigans of the kind. Her response however is strictly related to her own confidence about her read. If she's sure about her read, she'll go for it (no downplaying). If she's unsure, she'll work to be able to trust her read enough to convince others. (Upping her own play.)

With this I come into the conclusion that she is not downplaying her abilities when responding to others, or in any questions that she replied to me. This is exactly why I consider the 2nd question where she does NOT EVEN CONSIDER ME AS POSSIBLE SCUM extremely alarming. Also take in consideration how interested in she is in the reasons why I suspect her to be mafia. She doesn't just ignore and wait for me to actually provide something, but she actively asks for it again and again. If not combined with the above, I would see this as a townie trait, but I feel she is trying to get to know her mistakes/flaws in early play so she doesn't make the same mistakes later on.

TLDR:

1) Is afraid of being seen as scum
2) Extremely co-operative due to not wanting to be looked upon badly, refer to point 1.
3) Ignores the possibility of the player questioning her being scum.
4) When suspected, wants to know the flaws in her play to not repeat the mistake later

Like literally, for one moment she doesn't think I could be scum trying to push her for mislynch.

27ninjabunnies is mafia, and needs to be lynched. My vote stays where it is.

Opinions?


Goddamn bunnies back to scummy now, I need you to pretend your formaled and defend yourself. He brings up all the points I wanted to kill yellow in other game. Do I need to claim Bird Jesus again and say im going to shoot you and see if I get roleblocked?


Regarding the bolded, Yell0w flipped town in the game in question - how does it make sense for you to want to kill bunnies for those reasons?

Also, your post here gives absolutely no indication that you actually read or thought about Cephrio's case, which just rubs me all sorts of wrong ways.



For me it felt like bunnies was contradicting herself from the way she was putting pressure on yellow on that game. Her play style from that game to this game looks different to me and the way she conducted herself early on this game made me want to question and put pressure on her.


You didn't really answer either of my questions. I know the reason for your bunnies reads.

What I want to know is...
a) Why you claim that bunnies is scummy for reasons you thought that yell0w was scummy in the other game, despite yell0w being town in said game, and...
b) Why there's nothing in your filter that indicates that you even read Cephiro's case. It seems as if you saw a giant post on bunnies and mindlessly sheeped it without even considering the contents.



A) I know bunnies probably the mostest out of everyone here so my read on her goes back to more games then just the last one. Yellow and bunnies are different players. Because yellow did something scummy in one game and someone else does the same thing does not imply that the new person is also town. What Im trying to say is P does not always imply Q,
having know bunnies and her playstyle and not know yellows I think bunnies is more likely scum for her reactions then yellows reactions in that game.

B) I read his post, im going to have to re read it again but Im pretty sure I quoted it and said something along the lines of Im gonna claim bird jesus and shoot you in the night.


Ok I have no idea what you mean by the bolded.

Show nested quote +
My reads are vauge and inconclusive, with day 1 starts I do not have any information to go on so I have to try and figure shit out on my own until Power Roles come out with useful information and then I can apply my reads to them and look back at peoples filters as days go on.

Im not a strong day1 player which is my downfall and gets me mislynched a lot because I like posting long as posts with lots of quotes and small notes on them because I find that much more efficient then posting 100 smaller posts.


Regarding your Day 1 play, one thing that makes me fairly suspicious of you was your entirely different approach to Day 1 in the recently concluded newbie game. In that game, you came out extremely confident with very straightforward pressure/reads. This is in complete contrast to this game, where your approach has reflected your "vague and inconclusive" self-descriptor.


Then suddenly after saying a lot of things don't make any sense by tambo and tambo being dodgy at first, suddenly he believes he missed. Not particularly for any reason either.

On May 23 2014 01:20 Hapahauli wrote:
##Unvote

I'm starting to think I missed on tambo. Going to re-read and re-evaluate.


He then goes on valenius primarily on a sheeped read by OnceKing, and says he is 100% the best lynch for the day. But wait!

On May 23 2014 03:02 Hapahauli wrote:
I'll consider switching to Odin depending on what Valenius comes up with in the next few hours. Can't do much on my phone, but I can and will be reading.


Then he votes on Odin. His next post is accusatory toward those who swapped votes at the last moment without any reason. Hypocrisy thy name is Hapa. But this much is off topic from my main point, which is the strangeness of his tambo read. So what did happen to that?

On May 24 2014 03:25 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2014 05:00 ShiaoPi wrote:
VOTE COUNT:


mtamburini (8): Tehpoofter, Hapahauli, Alakaslam, mattisfoolish, Xatalos, Cavalinho, Holyflare, thrawn2112, BlueyD, marvellosity, jampidampi, 27ninjabunnies, bkqyrldp, austinmcc, layabout, Steveling, Meapak_Ziphh
Valenius (2): Meapak_Ziphh, Hapahauli, Tehpoofter, OnceKing, marvellosity, Hapahauli, Xatalos, kitaman27, sqrtofneg1
geript (0): Holyflare, Steveling
Koshi (0): Valenius
Steveling (0): Holyflare, Cavalinho, geript
Alakaslam (0): kushm4sta, kushm4sta
Hapahauli (0): kushm4sta
Yell0w (1): Tehpoofter, Tehpoofter, BlueyD
Xatalos (0): jampidampi, marvellosity, Koshi, thrawn2112, kushm4sta
jampidampi (0): sqrtofneg1, Xatalos, Xatalos
27ninjabunnies (1): Cephiro
sqrtofneg1 (0): kitaman27
bkqyrldp (0): marvellosity
OdinOfPergo (13): Blazinghand, Steveling, Xatalos, Yell0w, Alakaslam, Alakaslam, kushm4sta, Xatalos, Koshi, OnceKing, marvellosity, Hapahauli, thrawn2112, bkqyrldp, Cavalinho, Valenius, Holyflare
Holyflare (1): WaveofShadow, Xatalos, Steveling, Steveling, sqrtofneg1
WaveofShadow (0): kitaman27, bkqyrldp
Blazinghand (1): Tehpoofter, OdinofPergo, geript, marvellosity, geript
thrawn2112 (0): 27ninjabunnies
marvellosity (0): kushm4sta
layabout (1): jampidampi, Koshi, OnceKing, marvellosity, ritoky
ritoky (0): austinmcc, layabout
BlueyD (0): kitaman27
Tehpoofter (1): mtamburini

Not voting (2): MysterMeat1, OdinofPergo

OdinOfPergo was lynched with 13 votes!


I'm going to use the above votecount to structure my thoughts. By looking at the votes, we can get a better idea about the motivations of certain players, and it can help identify certain mafia tells that might be present in a multi-faction game. I'm dividing posters into 3 categories:
  • People off of the main wagons
  • People who voted Odin
  • People who voted Tambo



People off of the main wagons:

There's a good chance that certain mafia/faction members will want to "blend-in" and "hide", and one very instinctual way of doing that is to avoid the main course of discussion, take "non-controversial" stances, and avoid contributing by pursuing/voting someone who is not being talked about and has very little chance of getting lynched.

In this category of players, we have:
mtamburini
rikoty
geript
Cephiro
Tehpoofter
kitaman
sqrtofneg1
WaveofShadow

I'm going to start with Mafia Reads, move to Null Reads, and then to Townies:

Mtamburini
+ Show Spoiler +
Mtamburini's vote looks extremely bad by all accounts.
On May 23 2014 03:45 mtamburini wrote:
I Vote:: tehpoofter

why?
No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS

harharharhar


Tehpoofter had virtually no chance of getting lynched yesterday, and this is the definition of a wasted vote by all accounts. His reasoning for placing his vote where it was is also pretty suspect:
why?
No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS

On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2014 04:26 Xatalos wrote:
What was that vote, mtamburini...?


I have a lot of reading to catch up on so if I had to found scum based on the first 45 pages of this game I probably couldnt do so. poofter was in my initial scum reads moving towards null.
...

On May 23 2014 04:59 mtamburini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2014 04:38 Holyflare wrote:
On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote:
On May 23 2014 04:26 Xatalos wrote:
What was that vote, mtamburini...?


I have a lot of reading to catch up on so if I had to found scum based on the first 45 pages of this game I probably couldnt do so. poofter was in my initial scum reads moving towards null.

Im not going to vote on bunnies because I think she might be town and just needs some time to cool off and get her head in gear.

As the days go on my game will improve. With regards to my interactions with people Ive played with before I know I have a better chance of getting a read off them then smoeone I do not know so I will look at them first before anyone else.


hey i thought after your long post the ONLY read you had was that steveling was scummy/null to you and that was it? where did this first 45 page poofter read come from?


tehpoofter uses sarcasm as either allignment but you can usually tell by the tone of his sarcasm what allignement he is. From his initial posts Im reading the sarcasm as more scummy then towny

All of this is really strange. The first two quotes can be barely considered reads. The 3rd quote is extremely manufactured and makes very little sense - tambo had never mentioned tehpoofters "sarcasm" all game, and then it shows up in a very mystical and unexplained read (what is the difference between town/mafia sarcasm?).

Quote #2 is additionally strange - he voted a read (tehpoofter) that he felt was moving from Scummy to Null. Not only is this really weak, but he did so over Bunnies, who he's been seemingly tunneling most of the game, and has explicitly called her a strong scum-read in earlier posts. His rationale for not voting Bunnies is weak and makes little sense:
On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2014 04:26 Xatalos wrote:
What was that vote, mtamburini...?


...

Im not going to vote on bunnies because I think she might be town and just needs some time to cool off and get her head in gear.

...


To understand why this makes so little sense, read this post...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=45#896

...then read page 3 of his filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?user=mtamburini&page=3

He doesn't vote a scumread because he believes that scumread could be town, but then votes tehpoofter (his "scummy moving to null" read) because... man I don't even know.


sqrtofneg1
+ Show Spoiler +
His deadline behavior is pretty strange.

After he comes back a couple of hours before lynch deadline, he quickly establishes a town-read on Odin...
On May 23 2014 03:03 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Okay, looking at Odin's filter myself, I think he's just a vanilla townie.
Scum would try harder to get out of it. As a vanilla townie, he wouldn't care.

On May 23 2014 03:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
I recommend lynching Val.
Odin may seem scum, but I think he's VT.


It's a very poorly explained town-read. His point about "Odin not trying to get out of the lynch" doesn't make much sense either, since Odin had stated earlier he'd be gone until the deadline. Futhermore, Odin was under very little pressure at the time he said that. It seems more like he's trying to justify not voting for Odin as opposed to being sincere with his read.

Sqrt then pops down a very "clean" vote on Valenius...
On May 23 2014 03:12 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Okay, I've played games with both tambo and val, and here's what I've got so far.

Valenius's filter from NMM LIV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445959-newbie-mini-mafia-liv?user=Valenius&view=all
He was vanilla town. He was much more active in scumhunting, he was much more direct, he was different.

Tambo's filter from NMM LV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?user=mtamburini
He was vanilla town. The filter is a bit more strange because he claimed vig, but it's more accurate of his play than when he was cop imo.

I've concluded that Valenius has been acting more strange, in comparison, rather than Tambo.
##Unvote
##Vote: Valenius


... then POOF! He's gone for the last two hours of shenanigans! Despite having a town read on Odin, he never seems to try and act on it to prevent it. He disappears... then instantly reappears at lynch deadline! This is a really suspicious 2 hours of absence.

Another *really* odd thing about his filter is how many town reads he gives out over the course of the game. He gives them out like candy, is seemingly confident in a lot of them, and... yeah. I'm not sure if this is a mafia tell in this particular setup, but it's something that definetely caught my eye on a readthrough.



Cephiro
+ Show Spoiler +
Given that Cephiro was AFK for the last half of the day, it's hard for me to get an accurate read on him. However the first half of his day 1 play seems like it would come from some sort of faction.

I won't talk much about the contents of his big case. What's more important is that he didn't talk about anything other than his case on bunnies at all. This lines up with the idea of a faction wanting to "hunt" for players, but not necessarily interested in contributing to town discussion.

Again, hard to make a complete read on him due to him being AFK for a while, but his play objectively fits pretty well with how I'd think a faction member hunting other faction members would approach this game: find a target, push him/her, and really not contribute to town discussion otherwise.


Ritoky
+ Show Spoiler +
Hard to say. His play is pretty short and straightforward. He believed layabout was scum, voted him, and then had to step out:
On May 22 2014 19:48 ritoky wrote:
Well, I am going to sleep and I am not sure if I will make it back before the deadline.

For me it's between WOS and layabout.

WOS contributes and I basically don't like much of anything he says.

Layabout doesn't contribute, and when he does its mostly shit filling.

Gonna go with layabout. ##vote layabout


Nothing in his filter that screams his alignment one way or the other.


WaveofShadow
+ Show Spoiler +
Well he replaced out. This makes a lot of his lack of interest and activity in the latter half of the game pretty explainable. I wasn't altogether please with his play (especially his stuff on Holyflare), but it's better not to make judgements about an incomplete filter and let his replacement talk some.


Geript I believe to be town. Geript is extremely active and emotional this game. His tunnels seem very genuine, and while he ended up on BlazingHand, he definitely was very involved in the chaos and discussion of the day. He's drawn a ton of attention to himself, and really isn't someone I'm concerned about.

Tehpoofter I'm less sure about, but I think he's town. He's playing extraordinarily different from his scum-game in You Only Shoot Once, and was fairly active/involved early on. He was afk for the last ~24 hours of the day (not changing his vote or posting at all), which leads me to believe his vote being off of one of the main wagons is a null-tell. Based on his early day behavior, I give him a moderate town read, with the expectation that he continues that in future days.




Wait what? You thought we missed on him? Now he is not only red, but BOLDED red compared to val who isn't and me who is black? For having a throwaway vote and being generally disengaged/sarcastic? Your outlook on scum defending themselves from being BW'd sure is different than mine.

Generally I think his tambo read progression is just non-committal, weird, and doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I feel as if he is trying to push what he feels are easy MLs on targets that don't post much and are new to the game. But the strangest thing for me, or the thing I find the most odd, is that his criticism is uneven. He calls out geript for confirmation bias then sits idly by while BH pushes a case full of confirmation bias. He swaps his vote to odin for no stated reason and because others are doing it, then criticizes those who swapped their vote for no reason. He doesn't like how people aren't pushing cases, but his two largest cases are against val (a case mostly made by onceking imo) and me (a case mostly made by layabout imo). He is criticizing people for things he himself is doing. Maybe it is just bad play and I am being a stick in the mud about it. Something here is just off, I can feel it.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
May 25 2014 01:58 GMT
#3778
On May 25 2014 10:47 layabout wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 25 2014 10:37 Alakaslam wrote:
On May 25 2014 10:18 layabout wrote:
oh ive been waiting on valenius too

TAKE NOTE:
marv said that he and BH were confirmed town to each other but i cannot for the life of me find BH agreeing with this which should have been a priority of his the moment he saw that marv had written it. If they are confirmed to each other regardless of whether if helps us now we need to know it before one of them flips. It would leave us exposed to a flip manipulating role but since it's alignment flip it would be a ridiculous level of host setup bullshit for such a role o be there.

Call me a fool and hypocrite, but.

Say again? No CHUPAZI, no grammar bads, I think I might possibly get what you are saying. I believe it is not complex but my duncery requires you state it differently

CLICK ME
Show nested quote +
On May 24 2014 06:43 marvellosity wrote:
anyway BH and I are confirmed town to each other, so can we just stop this please?


bh was around bh totally ignored this. Major wtfs if they are both town and and confirmed to each other and that happened


And I'm still ignoring it now! Look at that.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
May 25 2014 01:59 GMT
#3779
On May 25 2014 10:10 kitaman27 wrote:
Looking at Cephiro's scum games, he has posted those monster walls of text early in the game multiple times as each alignment. I'm not willing to assume he is town based on effort there, especially since the content of the case wasn't very convincing. He hasn't posted since the start of day one.

My heuristic is - long walls of text - not alignment indicative

are the long walls of text eminently reasonable? -> mafia
are the long walls of text not that reasonable, tunnelly, hammering away at a certain point, convoluted -> town

Also Ceph kinda feels like he owns the place when he's town, less as mafia, check it out.

Yes, his absence is pretty terrible. But those are my thoughts ^ let me know if you want me to elaborate/discuss
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
May 25 2014 02:00 GMT
#3780
On May 25 2014 10:58 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 25 2014 10:47 layabout wrote:
On May 25 2014 10:37 Alakaslam wrote:
On May 25 2014 10:18 layabout wrote:
oh ive been waiting on valenius too

TAKE NOTE:
marv said that he and BH were confirmed town to each other but i cannot for the life of me find BH agreeing with this which should have been a priority of his the moment he saw that marv had written it. If they are confirmed to each other regardless of whether if helps us now we need to know it before one of them flips. It would leave us exposed to a flip manipulating role but since it's alignment flip it would be a ridiculous level of host setup bullshit for such a role o be there.

Call me a fool and hypocrite, but.

Say again? No CHUPAZI, no grammar bads, I think I might possibly get what you are saying. I believe it is not complex but my duncery requires you state it differently

CLICK ME
On May 24 2014 06:43 marvellosity wrote:
anyway BH and I are confirmed town to each other, so can we just stop this please?


bh was around bh totally ignored this. Major wtfs if they are both town and and confirmed to each other and that happened


And I'm still ignoring it now! Look at that.

this is just another bullet point on the imaginary list of reasons for why i hate your play and always want a gun
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
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