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Resistance 3 - Page 30

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
January 03 2014 00:54 GMT
#581
On January 03 2014 09:38 Chairman Ray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2014 09:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
On January 03 2014 09:08 Chairman Ray wrote:
Town, for this mission, do not nay vote it simply because you are not in the mission. Even if you are not on the mission, please give careful consideration to the 4 people who are selected. Even if we select an all town mission and the people on the mission yay vote, we still need one vote from an outside townie to have the mission a go. It is understandable that if you are not on the mission, then selecting 4 out of the 5 remaining town is slim, but if every town outside the mission nay votes, the only mission we'll end up passing is one with a mafia in it.


THIS is the advice we've been waiting for?

I feel more ripped off than when I ask for Coke in a restaurant and 2/3 of the glass is ice.

That should be common sense.


I felt I had to make that obvious statement after Grack saying "I cannot understand from a townie perspective someone being ok with both of those teams when he is on neither of them." Not sure if he's referring to someone yay voting a team they're not on, or yay voting 6 unique players, but just in case it's the former, it doesn't hurt to reiterate. I've seen town players downvote a team based off that illusion of safe play before, and although it's pretty much mandatory of mission 5, you don't wanna do it on mission 2.

Grack is calling you scum because of the latter case. We're gonna need some more wisdom out of you.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
January 03 2014 01:15 GMT
#582
On January 03 2014 09:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2014 09:38 Chairman Ray wrote:
On January 03 2014 09:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
On January 03 2014 09:08 Chairman Ray wrote:
Town, for this mission, do not nay vote it simply because you are not in the mission. Even if you are not on the mission, please give careful consideration to the 4 people who are selected. Even if we select an all town mission and the people on the mission yay vote, we still need one vote from an outside townie to have the mission a go. It is understandable that if you are not on the mission, then selecting 4 out of the 5 remaining town is slim, but if every town outside the mission nay votes, the only mission we'll end up passing is one with a mafia in it.


THIS is the advice we've been waiting for?

I feel more ripped off than when I ask for Coke in a restaurant and 2/3 of the glass is ice.

That should be common sense.


I felt I had to make that obvious statement after Grack saying "I cannot understand from a townie perspective someone being ok with both of those teams when he is on neither of them." Not sure if he's referring to someone yay voting a team they're not on, or yay voting 6 unique players, but just in case it's the former, it doesn't hurt to reiterate. I've seen town players downvote a team based off that illusion of safe play before, and although it's pretty much mandatory of mission 5, you don't wanna do it on mission 2.

Grack is calling you scum because of the latter case. We're gonna need some more wisdom out of you.


If I approved both the first two teams because each of them has a spy in them and I'm the third spy, then it confirms Koshi and Grack as town.

If there was only one team in the first two that had a spy in it, then obviously outside spies would have a preference to which team is approved, and Grack should be questioning those who have displayed a preference. Not a hard thing to do when there are plenty of town displaying preference to mix yourself in with.

Or it means that I'm a town who doesn't really care which team is sent. Not much help, but hey, if we figure out that one of the first two teams is all town, then it's a good bet that I'm town.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
January 03 2014 01:22 GMT
#583
Wait am I proposing a mission of 3 people? I thought it was 3 4 4 5(2) 5
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
January 03 2014 01:23 GMT
#584
On January 03 2014 10:22 Grackaroni wrote:
Wait am I proposing a mission of 3 people? I thought it was 3 4 4 5(2) 5


You are 4 people
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
January 03 2014 01:36 GMT
#585
I don't feel comfortable sending a team including Grack at this point
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
January 03 2014 02:31 GMT
#586
Why?
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
January 03 2014 03:57 GMT
#587
I think you're scum, but it's very hard to organize my thoughts on a phone so I could be wrong. 24 hours from now or so I will have an answer.
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-03 04:24:27
January 03 2014 04:20 GMT
#588
Sorry guys I made a typo. Grack is supposed to send a team of 4 people (not 3) for Day 2.

People to send for each mission:
Mission 1: 3
Mission 2: 4
Mission 3: 4
Mission 4: 5 (2 sabotages required)
Mission 5: 5

I'll put this in the OP.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
January 03 2014 08:29 GMT
#589
rayn, why do you think Hopeless might be scum. Or is it impossible?
I had a good night of sleep.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
January 03 2014 09:21 GMT
#590
Right now i have a feeling that at least Hopeless is scum from the 1st mission. Here's my reasoning:

Hopeless' read on Koshi and Corazon and it's evolvement:
On December 30 2013 06:19 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 30 2013 05:59 Corazon wrote:
Hopeless, do you think Koshi is town and why

Yes, and I don't remember exactly why. Something about how he's trying to convert mafia knowledge to resistance knowledge and his appealing to veterans to guide the way for us made me think he had an idea of a plan that would push town in the right direction, even if he had nothing to do with finding that right direction.

Show nested quote +
On December 30 2013 05:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Since you ninja'd me Hopeless, i see you disagree with me on Cora, so, what exactly is your read on Cora and why?

There were points against koshi about how he wasnt trying to discern alignments. Cora is doing the same thing with Koshi, but worse, he's actively discrediting him. Koshi was assuming I just wouldnt post much and that sending me on a mission was a losing endeavor because even if we succeed you get little benefit from having me "confirmed" since I wouldn't do much with it. Cora is telling people to ignore Koshi because he's trolling too much and wont allow him a word in edgewise.

Show nested quote +
On December 30 2013 06:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
On December 30 2013 06:05 Koshi wrote:
I said why already. + now there is a scumslip.

I for one remain unconvinced there was any scumslip there.

I think koshi is more likely to be town for thinking its a scumslip though, regardless of if there really is one.





@Rayn's question from list post
Show nested quote +
Hopeless one question, why did you yay-vote Adam's team as he was null for you?
Probably a similar reason that Koshi was willing to consider Yay'ing VE's team if he commited to a townread on you: It was worth risking a failed mission to "confirm" a spy.

In my case, Adam was a statistical tossup as first leader. I looked at his suggesting-a-team post and thought it was more likely he was town than scum, but in the same breath second guessed myself into calling him null. I think I have a good read on you. If we failed our mission, I'd be convinced Adam was the spy. That information is worth the failed early mission to me.

This is when VE proposes his team. Hopeless reads Koshi as town for "some reason he does not remember". He also says Corazon is playing quite similarly to Koshi but that Cora is trying to discredit Koshi. This in itself is not alignment indicative (at least on scummy side) but watch on what happens next:
On December 30 2013 06:26 Hopeless1der wrote:
I didn't actually state my read of Cora: I'd call him a spy at the moment.
Show nested quote +
On December 28 2013 08:38 Corazon wrote:
After looking at Hopeless again, I really do like his posts. His contributions have been very excellent and I don't mind his nomination at all.

I'm also okay with Rayn and Adam as nominations. I want to hear some more questioning and activity from everyone b/c the only scum/spy read I have right now is Koshi.

This felt way too easy of a +1 without any critical thought behind it. I didn't like this post. Combined with associative I think Koshi is town -> Therefore Cora scum.

Associative read that makes no sense this way. You can make associative reads (and in Resistance you have to) but they work another way around, if someone is scum you can deduce someone else must be town (is some cases). You however can't say someone is town - therefore someone is scum, as townies accuse each other all the time.

This is also a clarification on Hopeless' read on Koshi/Cora, and it gives him a reason to nay-vote VE's team.

Later on Hopeless calls VE scum (that's something i don't find relevant in this case though, but worth mentioning) and again says he found Cora scummy for other reasons than association with Koshi. He never explains those reasons fully.

Then there is some back and forth with Hopeless/Corazon where they call each other scum for stupid reasons. Nothing alignment indicative there imo.

Team VE fails, and Koshi becomes a leader and starts discussing his team. Now here is an important post:
On January 01 2014 07:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
So guys...rayn/cora/hopeless

Who needs convincing?

This is BEFORE Koshi has chosen his team. Hopeless has already taken a stance where Cora is town and Koshi is (apparently?) not. Or both Koshi and Cora are town? I really don't know what to think. The important piece of information to be drawn is Hopeless already knows where this is going (most likely to a team him/rayn/Koshi), it's quite evident he is already playing the next phase in case the team goes through, and when a sabotage happens.

Think about it. On D3 (in case Koshi's educatedly guessed team Koshi/Hopeless/rayn goes on a mission) Hopeless needs someone to be scum. That someone needs to be rayn/Koshi. I think it's obvious he is pre-emptively trying to cover all bases and his future thought process, otherwise this sudden change of mind on Koshi<->Cora read makes no sense as Cora's posting hasn't changed one bit from what it has been all game. Cora's reads have not changed, Cora's posting style has not chaged, there is no reason Hopeless should consider him any townier than before at this point.
On January 01 2014 07:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
Cora's brain can't seem to handle the possibility that someone considers him scum. But he's probably town. And a self-centered drama queen.

And again, before the mission. Why?

This is during the voting phase:
On January 02 2014 08:47 Hopeless1der wrote:
add cora for flawless victory grack

Both Koshi and Corazon are town. I can only ask why? Hopeless has never explained this change of heart in his reads on these fellas and in the first place the read was moslty based on association. When this association no longer benefits him ti's completely dropped.

After the mission fails Hopeless posts (as assumed) this:
On January 03 2014 06:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2014 06:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Oh shit i totally forgot CR. I could not ffs find the fifth person that you were talking about and thought it could be scum communication.

I was trying to find something that makes sense from the thread after you made the case on VE and we talked about it and other stuff. I still can't understand why the hell suddenly after that, everyone just yay-votes the team with zero discussion. Even VE, who had you as a scumread and really the only thing you talked about was your case on him.

I conclude Koshi is the spy.

He has concluded Koshi is spy. Why? There is no explanation, just a quote of my post. Does he have a stronger town read on me? If so, why?


TLDR;
Why i think Hopeless is a spy:
  • Throughout the game he has a lot of unexplained reads (mainly Koshi and Corazon)
  • His reasoning for his read on Corazon changes without real reasoning and pre-emptively in a manner that can only be explained from spy perspective
  • Him townreading me over Koshi is weird and does not really make sense as it seems like he hasn't never really given any thought on those reads. Before Koshi's mission Hopeless was pretty sure about Koshi being town and he just said "rayn needs to go on 1st mission" without really having a read on me at all, or explaining it. It seems like he's just having me as a strong townie to buddy with and therefore blame the sabotage on Koshi.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
January 03 2014 09:31 GMT
#591
Holy fucking shit.
This just struck me:

Team 2
Current Leader: VisceraEyes

Current Vote Count:
Koshi: Nay
Hopeless1der: Nay
Corazon: Yay
[UoN]Sentinel: Yay
Chairman Ray: Yay
Adam4167: Nay
VisceraEyes: Yay
Grackaroni: Nay
raynpelikoneet: Not voting *said he would nay*

Team: VisceraEyes, [UoN]Sentinel, Corazon

Can it be this easy?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
January 03 2014 09:33 GMT
#592
This would make perfect sense given Grackaroni is attacking me after Koshi's mission based on "gut feeling". After fail mission it's better for scum to attack different people, as you don't even care if one of your teammates get bussed as you wanna have eggs in every basket.

I have no idea why Grackaroni would attack me after Koshi's mission with literally no reasoning unless he is spy.
table for two on a tv tray
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
January 03 2014 09:39 GMT
#593
On January 03 2014 18:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
This would make perfect sense given Grackaroni is attacking me after Koshi's mission based on "gut feeling". After fail mission it's better for scum to attack different people, as you don't even care if one of your teammates get bussed as you wanna have eggs in every basket.

I have no idea why Grackaroni would attack me after Koshi's mission with literally no reasoning unless he is spy.

that does not make perfect sense lol.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
January 03 2014 09:41 GMT
#594
Well why don't you tell then what makes more sense, preferrably with something to back that up..
table for two on a tv tray
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
January 03 2014 09:45 GMT
#595
I don't really get what you are saying in the first place. Sentinel is trying to get me off the mission and it makes sense for scum to spread their targets so he must be scum. Doesn't that make perfect sense?

For one thing you assume that the majority of townies are derps and upvoted the first mission which would have been a sabotage. You also assume that I forced Adam to down vote a passing mission for the fuck of it.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
January 03 2014 09:51 GMT
#596
On January 03 2014 18:45 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't really get what you are saying in the first place. Sentinel is trying to get me off the mission and it makes sense for scum to spread their targets so he must be scum. Doesn't that make perfect sense?

For one thing you assume that the majority of townies are derps and upvoted the first mission which would have been a sabotage. You also assume that I forced Adam to down vote a passing mission for the fuck of it.

Having 2 scum on 1st mission has it's advantages and disadvantages. Having 1 scum however is easier to play off in case you do not know how to play it after that. I don't think up/down-voting the first (Adam's) mission has a lot to do with alignments in a sense that i don't think all scum were on the same side (as in voting yay or nay).

Or what exactly are you trying to say?
table for two on a tv tray
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
January 03 2014 09:56 GMT
#597
On January 03 2014 18:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2014 18:45 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't really get what you are saying in the first place. Sentinel is trying to get me off the mission and it makes sense for scum to spread their targets so he must be scum. Doesn't that make perfect sense?

For one thing you assume that the majority of townies are derps and upvoted the first mission which would have been a sabotage. You also assume that I forced Adam to down vote a passing mission for the fuck of it.

Having 2 scum on 1st mission has it's advantages and disadvantages. Having 1 scum however is easier to play off in case you do not know how to play it after that. I don't think up/down-voting the first (Adam's) mission has a lot to do with alignments in a sense that i don't think all scum were on the same side (as in voting yay or nay).

Or what exactly are you trying to say?

What? You just pointed to the vote list on the 2nd mission and said it must be us 3 because we all voted nay. Why is the 2nd vote conclusive and the 1st vote irrelevant?

raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
January 03 2014 10:01 GMT
#598
There is a difference because i don't think Koshi's mission had 2 scum and Adam's had.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
January 03 2014 10:01 GMT
#599
Adam was basically forced to pick the team he picked in case he wanted to pick himself. That's quite obvious if you look at the thread at that time.
table for two on a tv tray
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
January 03 2014 10:05 GMT
#600
On January 03 2014 19:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
There is a difference because i don't think Koshi's mission had 2 scum and Adam's had.

And I would have picked Hopeless/Koshi if Koshi's mission got passed over.
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