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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:05 Grackaroni wrote: And I would have picked Hopeless/Koshi if Koshi's mission got passed over. You mean rejected? It's irrelevant what you say you would have picked because it didn't happen. Anyone can say anything they "would do" if something that didn't happen would have happened. That's not really good reasoning. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
He wanted to nay vote it, and then I telepathically understood that Adam wanted the team to fail and made some posts to ensure that scum didn't get a sabotaged team on the first day with no information, which would force town to choose 4 townies off one vote that could have been 6 yays. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
I still think VE is scum though, I just made the mistake thinking it was Coag that was scum D1. Maybe it is a bit less sure now with the nayvote from Hopeless D2 but meh. I also don't think it is as easy as Grack/Coag/Hopeless scumteam. I am still pondering if Cora isn't being too sure about Hopeless being scum. Also this: + Show Spoiler + On January 01 2014 04:12 Koshi wrote: Hmm. Why would scumHopeless do that though? Wouldn't it be easier to go with the tide and fling shit on me with all of you and then be friends with you? A lot of the "shitflinging" Hopeless does towards you is to protect me or defend me or w.e, which is just strange play in this set-up. Why would Hopeless defend me? Because he gets a townie on his side. Why would Hopeless fling shit at you at the same time then? That's counterproductive. Put neck out to gain 1 townie trust, but at the same time lose 1 townie trust. And my trust is worth way less than your trust at this point in the game. Doesn't make sense. On January 01 2014 04:15 Koshi wrote: Like it would make some sense if both of you are scum and then Hopeless gains trust from a townie while he is sure that both you will make up later but that is so very unlikely, I don't think we would be having this conversation if that was the case. also still pretty meh about the "scumslip". Also don't really understand why Cora went from Koshi scum --> Koshi town/Hopeless scum. Even though I contributed while picking. Game is hard. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On December 27 2013 21:48 Grackaroni wrote: Adam/Hopeless/Rayn sounds pretty good. Nothing here suggests a change in your reads. Grackaroni: Nay | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
What exactly were his chances of changing his mind after giving me his team proposition of him/me/Hopeless as noone posts townie stuff unless he wants to out himself in case he is scum? | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:18 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well Mr.Grackaroni, explain this: Nothing here suggests a change in your reads. I don't think looking for filter consistency is the right way to go about scum hunting in general. If I want my filter to be consistent I can make it consistent. I liked both you/hopeless but not enough to yay vote the first mission. I was going to nay vote any mission the first few days regardless of the team because there was only like 20 pages of thread. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because let's be honest here. I was easily the towniest person in thread when Adam chose his team. I pressured him to tell me what team he would pick in case he had to pick it instantly (before he picked the team). Nobody made good posts after that and at that moment he had a strong(?) townread on Hopeless. What exactly were his chances of changing his mind after giving me his team proposition of him/me/Hopeless as noone posts townie stuff unless he wants to out himself in case he is scum? Why was he giving a town read on hopeless in the first place if he is so strongly against putting 2 scum on the mission? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:26 Grackaroni wrote: Why was he giving a town read on hopeless in the first place if he is so strongly against putting 2 scum on the mission? Because i pressured him to tell me who would he pick now in case he had to. Jesus, are you not reading at all? Hopeless' posting was also really good during the time it was Adam's mission pick. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:24 Grackaroni wrote: I don't think looking for filter consistency is the right way to go about scum hunting in general. If I want my filter to be consistent I can make it consistent. I liked both you/hopeless but not enough to yay vote the first mission. I was going to nay vote any mission the first few days regardless of the team because there was only like 20 pages of thread. Filter consistency is the only way to scumhunt because if your filter is not consistent then you are scum as you change your mind based on nothing - something you don't do as town. What do you suggest is how to scumhunt then? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On December 31 2013 20:49 Grackaroni wrote: Ah yes. the nay vote of Adam. A peculiar event it was. He just seemed oh so confident of his team before people started wondering why the vote was so easily passed. If that vote failed he was definitely taking the blaiM! Hehe. I'm really not sure though. Mafia is hard. If he was town though I think he made the right call. Good play by ADAM! Who you putting on your team this time Koshi/ Also Grack, this does not sound like a policy nay-vote as you earlier on said it was. You are giving different reasons for your voting behavior. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Filter consistency is the only way to scumhunt because if your filter is not consistent then you are scum as you change your mind based on nothing - something you don't do as town. What do you suggest is how to scumhunt then? I won't tell you how to scumhunt. There are definitely times when you can catch scum for a weird inconsistency. From my own experience I believe that scum are more concerned with making their filter consistent and that they will always give a reason to explain their actions. I don't think down voting a team that is good for scum after saying a team is good is indicative of scum play; on the contrary, it's a pretty damn good indicator of town. You are arguing that Adam and I are scum with Hopeless and that Adam/I were both against the idea of having 2 scum on our team, yet we both came out pro-hopeless. It's not even that I disagree with your theory because I know that it's wrong. I don't think that it's a sensible belief disregarding my own alignment. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also Grack, this does not sound like a policy nay-vote as you earlier on said it was. You are giving different reasons for your voting behavior. Yeah, I was drunk when I wrote that. I didn't really have any opinion at all on Adam lol. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:44 Grackaroni wrote: I won't tell you how to scumhunt. There are definitely times when you can catch scum for a weird inconsistency. From my own experience I believe that scum are more concerned with making their filter consistent and that they will always give a reason to explain their actions. I don't think down voting a team that is good for scum after saying a team is good is indicative of scum play; on the contrary, it's a pretty damn good indicator of town. You are arguing that Adam and I are scum with Hopeless and that Adam/I were both against the idea of having 2 scum on our team, yet we both came out pro-hopeless. It's not even that I disagree with your theory because I know that it's wrong. I don't think that it's a sensible belief disregarding my own alignment. I am saying i am leaning on you and Adam(Coag) being scum because your reasoning for voting behavior and reads do not match what's been happening in thread and what you have said before. I'll make a more detailed post about this for all the people to see tonight, i gotta go after a while for couple of hours so i don't have time to do it now. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On January 03 2014 19:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am saying i am leaning on you and Adam(Coag) being scum because your reasoning for voting behavior and reads do not match what's been happening in thread and what you have said before. I'll make a more detailed post about this for all the people to see tonight, i gotta go after a while for couple of hours so i don't have time to do it now. No, you took a list of nay votes that included yourself and said you found the scum team. Then I said that was rather silly because I nay voted a team that could have been a free sabotage for scum. Then you discounted that reasoning as unimportant. Later you've been floundering around with the idea that I was forced to nay vote because there were 2 scum on the mission, despite the fact that we would have both been setting ourselves up to place 2 scum on the mission. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On January 03 2014 18:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Holy fucking shit. This just struck me: Can it be this easy? Hmm this is interesting. I have an essay full of reads right now, and one of my stronger ones is that Adam and Hopeless are spies together. We arrived to the same conclusion for different reasons. I'm not yet sold on Grack yet, but he's a possibility. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
I'm going to start my reads with Adam simply because he was the first mission leader. Here was the results of the voting: Final Vote Count: Hopeless1der: Yay Adam4167: Nay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay Koshi: Yay VisceraEyes: Nay raynpelikoneet: Nay Chairman Ray: Yay Corazon: Nay Grackaroni: Nay Let's walk through what happened on phase 1 from a town Adam perspective, and then from a spy Adam perspective. The day starts off the and first thing that really happens is hopeless explaining why leaders should always pick themselves. Ends up being proven false, but overall not strongly alignment indicative. What comes to my mind at this point is the possibility of an Adam/Hopeless scumteam. This was the first post: On December 27 2013 09:46 Hopeless1der wrote: Hmm..i disagree with rayn about voting usually being anonymous. I guess my friends play with weird rules. I'm used to IRL voting where a choice is selected with a hidden tile and then revealed all at once, then votes are tallied and you know who voted for what and have that as information to analyze. Anyways, do you think there is ever a scenario where the leader SHOULDNT send themselves on a team? On December 27 2013 10:18 Hopeless1der wrote: I think the leader should ALWAYS pick themselves. Sitting yourself out of a team is like self-voting for a lynch imo. If you know you are of the resistance, you should absolutely be going in your mind. Unless the game has been trivialized because the spies derped and all 3 sabotage the first mission, I think the leader is always going to have a spot on the team. I would vote no on any team that didnt include the current leader for this reason, regardless of what town sentiment was at that time. The first thing I noticed was that this question was posed out of the blue. There was no previous context of it. So why would hopeless just open the game asking this kind of question? It's kinda weird isn't it? One thing we know is that hopeless is experienced in playing The Resistance. I am also experienced, and to me, it's so obvious that there are many cases where a leader should not put himself in. Does this mean that Hopeless should share the same opinion that I do? Maybe, maybe not. But let's analyze it further. Since Hopeless has experience playing The Resistance, and judging by his posts afterwards, he seems very sure with the idea that a leader should always send themselves in, to the point where he probably doesn't need to ask. I can see someone asking this kind of question if they feel it makes sense, but they have never played The Resistance before so they want other people's input. Let's put ourselves in Hopeless's shoes for a second. You played this game before, and you know for certain that leaders should put themselves in. Which opening statement makes sense: Alright let's get this game going. I'm town and I would like to go on the first mission because I want it to pass. Adam, you should put yourself in as well since you are the leader. Let's find the best third candidate to put on the first mission Do you think there is ever a scenario where the leader SHOULDNT send themselves on a team? I have trouble with the idea that someone who's experienced with this game, is totally sure that a leader should put himself in, would not open the game by finding town, hunting scum, offering himself in the mission, but instead asks a question that is trivial to them. I bet that if we put that line into Google Translate, and translate it from English to Spy, it would read something like: I want Adam on the first mission, but I don't want to directly suggest it. I will pose a question suggesting that it is ideal for the leader to be on the mission. Perhaps one of you can agree with me and be the one to say that Adam should be on the team. This leads me to believe the possibility of an Adam+Hopeless scum team. At this point, there is still not much to indicate alignment, but what I want to say is that what makes the most sense at this point would be those two as scum. Let's look further into the game and see if Adam+Hopeless continue to make sense. So what happens next? Adam puts himself, Hopeless, and Rayn on the first mission. A spy would usually avoid putting himself in with another spy, which is an argument against Adam and Hopeless being spies together, but because Adam rejected this team later on, this argument no longer applies to this scenario. I will elaborate on this later on. At this time, Hopeless is the first to yay vote the team. Although the yay vote in itself would indicate less likelihood of Adam and Hopeless being spies, the timing of the vote indicates otherwise. Since you only get a single vote, it is the best strategy-wise for town to save it until more information comes along. Once there have been a lot of dialogue and many people have voted, your vote becomes the most educated. If it was the case that everyone was saving their vote and somebody had to go first, then I would excuse Hopeless for it, but the reality is that he yay voted the team within 30 minutes of the announcement. The second vote came 4 hours after the announcement. It seems like Hopeless was damn sure that this mission is a go and no more information could change his mind. As town I don't think he would do that. As mafia however, I think he's excited that he's gonna go on a mission with another spy. When I signed up to this game, I was hoping that I would get to be a spy and the mission I would pick would have all the spies. Let's see how you guys deal with that. Hopeless is an experienced player. Multiple spies being on the same mission happen every other game, so Hopeless would know how to play it and take advantage of it. That would explain the lightning fast yay vote. The next thing of importance is how Adam downvoted his own team. At this time the votes were 5-4 in favor of pass, where Adam can choose to change his vote from the default vote. He made the deciding vote to reject the mission. Let's analyze the motives for this from a town perspective and then from a spy perspective. Firstly, if I was town in his position, I would have let the mission pass. I would love to lead the first mission. Pass or fail, it makes the game easy. If I am on the mission, then all I gotta do is choose 2 out of the remaining 5 town. Much better chance than 3/6. Plus, some of the leaders after me might be spies. Don't want the mission to pass on one of their turns. From my perspective, it is the greatest chance that the first mission will succeed. Even if it fails, that's still okay, because I have the easy job of figuring out one mafia out of two people while everyone else has to figure it out of three people. It makes the investigation easy, and once the game is solved from my perspective, all I gotta do is convince all the other town that I'm right. The best confidence that your team is the right team on the very first mission is that not everyone agrees with it. The votes being 5-4, it is a fairly good indication. This is why I would have let the first mission pass if I was Adam. Even though I would let the first mission pass, it doesn't mean Adam would. Overall not very alignment indicative, but makes some sense. Secondly, if I was spy in his position, I would also have let the mission pass. It's so important to have a spy on the first mission, regardless if I sabotage the mission. The reason is because if the first mission succeeds, the most common play is to choose the same three people and add one more. At this point there is no drawback to spy to let the mission go. I have trouble believing that if Adam was a lone spy, he would make the deciding vote to reject the mission. He could be being crafty, but that would be a long shot. Lastly, if I was spy in his position, and there was another spy on the team. I don't know exactly the reason behind choosing another spy in the first place. Perhaps he was in a mafia mindset and wanted to mix in a spy and a town. Perhaps this was from inexperience. Or maybe he was being pressured too hard to give a team, and the only two vocal people at the time were Hopeless and Rayn. So if I was in his position, after realizing that having two spies on one team puts me in an uncomfortable situation, I would reject it and hope the next team has a spy in it. This makes the most sense. Let's keep looking further into the game. Here are the voting results for VE's team and Koshi's team: Current Vote Count: Koshi: Nay Hopeless1der: Nay Corazon: Yay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay Chairman Ray: Yay Adam4167: Nay VisceraEyes: Yay Grackaroni: Nay raynpelikoneet: Not voting Current Vote Count: Corazon: Nay Hopeless1der: Yay Coagulation: Yay Chairman Ray: Yay Koshi: Yay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay VisceraEyes: Yay Raynpelikoneet: Yay On VE's team, there were five rejects. Among them were both Adam and Hopeless. Perhaps VE chose a good team. On Koshi's team, both Adam and Hopeless passed it, and the mission failed. Voting patterns are completely in line with Adam and Hopeless being spies. Overall at this point, I'm still not totally confident in Adam and Hopeless being spies, but unless we get some new development, I would rather not have either of them on the mission. I'm gonna be looking for a possible third spy that makes sense to be on a team with them. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
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