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On January 03 2014 09:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2014 09:08 Chairman Ray wrote:
Town, for this mission, do not nay vote it simply because you are not in the mission. Even if you are not on the mission, please give careful consideration to the 4 people who are selected. Even if we select an all town mission and the people on the mission yay vote, we still need one vote from an outside townie to have the mission a go. It is understandable that if you are not on the mission, then selecting 4 out of the 5 remaining town is slim, but if every town outside the mission nay votes, the only mission we'll end up passing is one with a mafia in it. THIS is the advice we've been waiting for? I feel more ripped off than when I ask for Coke in a restaurant and 2/3 of the glass is ice. That should be common sense.
I felt I had to make that obvious statement after Grack saying "I cannot understand from a townie perspective someone being ok with both of those teams when he is on neither of them." Not sure if he's referring to someone yay voting a team they're not on, or yay voting 6 unique players, but just in case it's the former, it doesn't hurt to reiterate. I've seen town players downvote a team based off that illusion of safe play before, and although it's pretty much mandatory of mission 5, you don't wanna do it on mission 2.
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On January 03 2014 09:54 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2014 09:38 Chairman Ray wrote:On January 03 2014 09:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On January 03 2014 09:08 Chairman Ray wrote:
Town, for this mission, do not nay vote it simply because you are not in the mission. Even if you are not on the mission, please give careful consideration to the 4 people who are selected. Even if we select an all town mission and the people on the mission yay vote, we still need one vote from an outside townie to have the mission a go. It is understandable that if you are not on the mission, then selecting 4 out of the 5 remaining town is slim, but if every town outside the mission nay votes, the only mission we'll end up passing is one with a mafia in it. THIS is the advice we've been waiting for? I feel more ripped off than when I ask for Coke in a restaurant and 2/3 of the glass is ice. That should be common sense. I felt I had to make that obvious statement after Grack saying "I cannot understand from a townie perspective someone being ok with both of those teams when he is on neither of them." Not sure if he's referring to someone yay voting a team they're not on, or yay voting 6 unique players, but just in case it's the former, it doesn't hurt to reiterate. I've seen town players downvote a team based off that illusion of safe play before, and although it's pretty much mandatory of mission 5, you don't wanna do it on mission 2. Grack is calling you scum because of the latter case. We're gonna need some more wisdom out of you.
If I approved both the first two teams because each of them has a spy in them and I'm the third spy, then it confirms Koshi and Grack as town.
If there was only one team in the first two that had a spy in it, then obviously outside spies would have a preference to which team is approved, and Grack should be questioning those who have displayed a preference. Not a hard thing to do when there are plenty of town displaying preference to mix yourself in with.
Or it means that I'm a town who doesn't really care which team is sent. Not much help, but hey, if we figure out that one of the first two teams is all town, then it's a good bet that I'm town.
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On January 03 2014 10:22 Grackaroni wrote:
Wait am I proposing a mission of 3 people? I thought it was 3 4 4 5(2) 5
You are 4 people
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On January 03 2014 18:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:Holy fucking shit. This just struck me: Show nested quote +
Team 2
Current Leader: VisceraEyes
Current Vote Count:
Koshi: Nay
Hopeless1der: Nay
Corazon: Yay
[UoN]Sentinel: Yay
Chairman Ray: Yay
Adam4167: Nay
VisceraEyes: Yay
Grackaroni: Nay
raynpelikoneet: Not voting *said he would nay*
Team: VisceraEyes, [UoN]Sentinel, Corazon
Can it be this easy?
Hmm this is interesting. I have an essay full of reads right now, and one of my stronger ones is that Adam and Hopeless are spies together. We arrived to the same conclusion for different reasons. I'm not yet sold on Grack yet, but he's a possibility.
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Eh screw it, I'll copy+paste that part over since the discussion is on that point now
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Adam/Coagulation
I'm going to start my reads with Adam simply because he was the first mission leader. Here was the results of the voting:
Final Vote Count:
Hopeless1der: Yay
Adam4167: Nay
[UoN]Sentinel: Yay
Koshi: Yay
VisceraEyes: Nay
raynpelikoneet: Nay
Chairman Ray: Yay
Corazon: Nay
Grackaroni: Nay
Let's walk through what happened on phase 1 from a town Adam perspective, and then from a spy Adam perspective.
The day starts off the and first thing that really happens is hopeless explaining why leaders should always pick themselves. Ends up being proven false, but overall not strongly alignment indicative. What comes to my mind at this point is the possibility of an Adam/Hopeless scumteam. This was the first post:
On December 27 2013 09:46 Hopeless1der wrote:Hmm..i disagree with rayn about voting usually being anonymous. I guess my friends play with weird rules. I'm used to IRL voting where a choice is selected with a hidden tile and then revealed all at once, then votes are tallied and you know who voted for what and have that as information to analyze.
Adam I went looking, didnt see you play in resistance 1 or 2. derp you cohosted 2. I also saw this and now I'm a little sad Show nested quote +On February 15 2012 05:31 EchelonTee wrote:
oof I'm tempted. I'll do resistance 3 when it comes. Anyways, do you think there is ever a scenario where the leader SHOULDNT send themselves on a team?
On December 27 2013 10:18 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2013 10:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
hmm.. okay.
Anyways Hopeless, you seem to have played Resistance. Why would you not have an opinion of if the leader should not pick themselves in any situation? I find it hard to believe tbh. I think the leader should ALWAYS pick themselves. Sitting yourself out of a team is like self-voting for a lynch imo. If you know you are of the resistance, you should absolutely be going in your mind. Unless the game has been trivialized because the spies derped and all 3 sabotage the first mission, I think the leader is always going to have a spot on the team. I would vote no on any team that didnt include the current leader for this reason, regardless of what town sentiment was at that time.
The first thing I noticed was that this question was posed out of the blue. There was no previous context of it. So why would hopeless just open the game asking this kind of question? It's kinda weird isn't it? One thing we know is that hopeless is experienced in playing The Resistance. I am also experienced, and to me, it's so obvious that there are many cases where a leader should not put himself in. Does this mean that Hopeless should share the same opinion that I do? Maybe, maybe not. But let's analyze it further. Since Hopeless has experience playing The Resistance, and judging by his posts afterwards, he seems very sure with the idea that a leader should always send themselves in, to the point where he probably doesn't need to ask. I can see someone asking this kind of question if they feel it makes sense, but they have never played The Resistance before so they want other people's input. Let's put ourselves in Hopeless's shoes for a second. You played this game before, and you know for certain that leaders should put themselves in. Which opening statement makes sense:
Alright let's get this game going. I'm town and I would like to go on the first mission because I want it to pass. Adam, you should put yourself in as well since you are the leader. Let's find the best third candidate to put on the first mission
Do you think there is ever a scenario where the leader SHOULDNT send themselves on a team?
I have trouble with the idea that someone who's experienced with this game, is totally sure that a leader should put himself in, would not open the game by finding town, hunting scum, offering himself in the mission, but instead asks a question that is trivial to them. I bet that if we put that line into Google Translate, and translate it from English to Spy, it would read something like:
I want Adam on the first mission, but I don't want to directly suggest it. I will pose a question suggesting that it is ideal for the leader to be on the mission. Perhaps one of you can agree with me and be the one to say that Adam should be on the team.
This leads me to believe the possibility of an Adam+Hopeless scum team. At this point, there is still not much to indicate alignment, but what I want to say is that what makes the most sense at this point would be those two as scum. Let's look further into the game and see if Adam+Hopeless continue to make sense.
So what happens next? Adam puts himself, Hopeless, and Rayn on the first mission. A spy would usually avoid putting himself in with another spy, which is an argument against Adam and Hopeless being spies together, but because Adam rejected this team later on, this argument no longer applies to this scenario. I will elaborate on this later on.
At this time, Hopeless is the first to yay vote the team. Although the yay vote in itself would indicate less likelihood of Adam and Hopeless being spies, the timing of the vote indicates otherwise. Since you only get a single vote, it is the best strategy-wise for town to save it until more information comes along. Once there have been a lot of dialogue and many people have voted, your vote becomes the most educated. If it was the case that everyone was saving their vote and somebody had to go first, then I would excuse Hopeless for it, but the reality is that he yay voted the team within 30 minutes of the announcement. The second vote came 4 hours after the announcement. It seems like Hopeless was damn sure that this mission is a go and no more information could change his mind. As town I don't think he would do that. As mafia however, I think he's excited that he's gonna go on a mission with another spy. When I signed up to this game, I was hoping that I would get to be a spy and the mission I would pick would have all the spies. Let's see how you guys deal with that. Hopeless is an experienced player. Multiple spies being on the same mission happen every other game, so Hopeless would know how to play it and take advantage of it. That would explain the lightning fast yay vote.
The next thing of importance is how Adam downvoted his own team. At this time the votes were 5-4 in favor of pass, where Adam can choose to change his vote from the default vote. He made the deciding vote to reject the mission. Let's analyze the motives for this from a town perspective and then from a spy perspective.
Firstly, if I was town in his position, I would have let the mission pass. I would love to lead the first mission. Pass or fail, it makes the game easy. If I am on the mission, then all I gotta do is choose 2 out of the remaining 5 town. Much better chance than 3/6. Plus, some of the leaders after me might be spies. Don't want the mission to pass on one of their turns. From my perspective, it is the greatest chance that the first mission will succeed. Even if it fails, that's still okay, because I have the easy job of figuring out one mafia out of two people while everyone else has to figure it out of three people. It makes the investigation easy, and once the game is solved from my perspective, all I gotta do is convince all the other town that I'm right. The best confidence that your team is the right team on the very first mission is that not everyone agrees with it. The votes being 5-4, it is a fairly good indication. This is why I would have let the first mission pass if I was Adam. Even though I would let the first mission pass, it doesn't mean Adam would. Overall not very alignment indicative, but makes some sense.
Secondly, if I was spy in his position, I would also have let the mission pass. It's so important to have a spy on the first mission, regardless if I sabotage the mission. The reason is because if the first mission succeeds, the most common play is to choose the same three people and add one more. At this point there is no drawback to spy to let the mission go. I have trouble believing that if Adam was a lone spy, he would make the deciding vote to reject the mission. He could be being crafty, but that would be a long shot.
Lastly, if I was spy in his position, and there was another spy on the team. I don't know exactly the reason behind choosing another spy in the first place. Perhaps he was in a mafia mindset and wanted to mix in a spy and a town. Perhaps this was from inexperience. Or maybe he was being pressured too hard to give a team, and the only two vocal people at the time were Hopeless and Rayn. So if I was in his position, after realizing that having two spies on one team puts me in an uncomfortable situation, I would reject it and hope the next team has a spy in it. This makes the most sense.
Let's keep looking further into the game. Here are the voting results for VE's team and Koshi's team:
Current Vote Count:
Koshi: Nay
Hopeless1der: Nay
Corazon: Yay
[UoN]Sentinel: Yay
Chairman Ray: Yay
Adam4167: Nay
VisceraEyes: Yay
Grackaroni: Nay
raynpelikoneet: Not voting
Current Vote Count:
Corazon: Nay
Hopeless1der: Yay
Coagulation: Yay
Chairman Ray: Yay
Koshi: Yay
[UoN]Sentinel: Yay
VisceraEyes: Yay
Raynpelikoneet: Yay
On VE's team, there were five rejects. Among them were both Adam and Hopeless. Perhaps VE chose a good team. On Koshi's team, both Adam and Hopeless passed it, and the mission failed. Voting patterns are completely in line with Adam and Hopeless being spies.
Overall at this point, I'm still not totally confident in Adam and Hopeless being spies, but unless we get some new development, I would rather not have either of them on the mission. I'm gonna be looking for a possible third spy that makes sense to be on a team with them.
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On January 04 2014 01:35 Hopeless1der wrote:
CR you around?
I'm here now, but activity will be sparse while I'm at work. I looked through your more recent filters, and also looked through Koshi's and Rayn's. I think you are still the most likely spy out of the three, but that's just a likelihood and I'm not completely sold on it yet. I'm gonna be looking more into it tonight. If you are town, it is just as much my job as it is yours to prove it, since my win condition depends on it as well.
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On January 04 2014 05:09 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2014 20:17 Chairman Ray wrote:
Eh screw it, I'll copy+paste that part over since the discussion is on that point now All of this. Every single word, in this thread, NOW. Spoiler it all at your discretion.
What do you hope to find in my inconclusive reads?
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On January 04 2014 05:19 Hopeless1der wrote:
Are you going to do it or not?
I know what's in my reads so far. I'm not comfortable sharing most of it right now simply because it's not done and it will help spies more than town. A lot of it deals with spy strategy and things that I'm looking for that may not have fully occurred yet. Every single town here has their impressions and their hints to go off of. They post it when they make a tangible read and don't go spewing it the second it enters their mind. The only difference is that I like writing paragraphs to help my train of thought. I expect other town to post when they feel is most optimal and I am doing the same.
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On January 04 2014 06:09 Hopeless1der wrote:
Can someone bully CR into posting his "essays" for me? He had no problem spewing bs advice for the spyteam earlier. Why so concerned about this? If his essays are so awesome why is that even a problem for town? We ought to be getting primo levels of wisdom out of him and instead he's clamped himself up in the name of "not help in the scum team". I think he is actively harming town by NOT posting his notes if they exist and I think he is scum if they don't.
The way his case is written there ought to be some pretty good shit in there besides the case on me, but CR doesn't want anyone to have it. Why?
Earlier you said that you were gonna pick apart my case. Now you're saying that there isn't any good shit in my case on you. We still haven't heard anything on why you disagree with my case, but you are very eager to hear my reads on other people, even though they aren't even complete. Why is this?
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On January 04 2014 06:27 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2014 06:22 Chairman Ray wrote:On January 04 2014 06:09 Hopeless1der wrote:
Can someone bully CR into posting his "essays" for me? He had no problem spewing bs advice for the spyteam earlier. Why so concerned about this? If his essays are so awesome why is that even a problem for town? We ought to be getting primo levels of wisdom out of him and instead he's clamped himself up in the name of "not help in the scum team". I think he is actively harming town by NOT posting his notes if they exist and I think he is scum if they don't.
The way his case is written there ought to be some pretty good shit in there besides the case on me, but CR doesn't want anyone to have it. Why? Earlier you said that you were gonna pick apart my case. Now you're saying that there isn't any good shit in my case on you. We still haven't heard anything on why you disagree with my case, but you are very eager to hear my reads on other people, even though they aren't even complete. Why is this? Because your other reads dont exist and you are scum stalling and hoping this all goes awayFTFY
You said twice that you don't agree with my case against you, yet you still haven't posted anything yet. You are doing the exact thing that you are criticizing me for. From what I see, you are the one who's trying to stall. There's evidence pointing to you being scum, yet you choose to divert the attention to anything you can grasp. I already told you that I don't want to post most of it yet because I'm not even finished writing it yet. I gave my case on you and Adam, so your defense is to try to discredit me instead of giving a single piece of evidence that you are town. It doesn't get any more scummier than this.
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I'm gonna put myself in your shoes for a sec just to make sense of your line of thinking.
Chairman Ray posted: "Hey guys, I have some reads. Most of it is not done, but here's what I have finished so far. Please take a look."
Which of the following statements would I say if I am town, and which would I say if I was spy:
1. Alright cool, let's discuss what your reads right now. I will share what I think as well and hopefully that can help you finish the rest of your reads
2. I'm in no rush to discuss your reads, but if you don't post the rest of your reads that are incomplete right now, you are spy!
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On January 04 2014 07:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
1. suggests I think you are town
2. suggests I think you are scum
Those options do not depend on MY alignment, they depend on my perception of YOUR alignment. and u scum bro.
That's actually a fair point. If you are town and you have confirmed me as spy, then there would be no point in communication between us as you don't need to gain my trust and I don't need to gain yours.
Right now, I am choosing to discuss with you about your reads against me and also give you some more reads I have on you because I only feel a likelihood that you are spy and I would like to explore the idea further.
But since you seem quite certain that I am spy, would you care to walk through your proof? I don't think I have heard this part yet. This is not for me of course. This is for the other town so they know not to send me on the next mission.
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On January 04 2014 08:09 Hopeless1der wrote:
my strongest proof is the non-existence of your other reads. The rest is blatant OMGUS, I know I'm town etc etc
And how does that make me spy?
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I would advise leaders to withhold their vote til later on so they can get the most information possible.
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The mission is guaranteed to fail.
The proper play for town, both for town inside the mission and outside the mission, was to withhold your vote. The reason is because if this mission has only town players, then spies have to reject it or else the game ends. If this mission has all town, then all we do is send the same team or the next two mission and then we win it 3-1. There is very little room for spies to be meta, but I will still explain the spy meta for our consideration.
For town players who are outside the mission, if there are two passes from outside the mission, then the mission must be rejected. If there are all town players in the mission, then there should be three spies outside the mission who should reject it. Given that there are four players outside the mission other than yourself, once there are two yays, then it is no longer possible to have three nays.
For town players who are inside the mission, if there are three passes from outside the mission, then the mission must be rejected. The reasoning follows very similarly to above, but one extra person since you cannot exclude yourself.
So from my perspective, I had to withhold my vote until there are two yays from people outside the mission. Once that occurs, then I have to reject it. I had to depend on the town people inside the mission to withhold their vote as well. Obviously I couldn't straight out say it or else spies could just easily counter it. I knew rayn would make the proper play and withhold his vote, and I slipped a hint to Grack by saying that a leader should withhold his vote. They both rejected the mission, but one of the town outside the mission yayed it, so unfortunately this mission has to go.
Before I go into what we should do for the next mission, I'll just quickly go over the spy meta that can occur. If a spy sees that the mission has all town, then they could either reject it and hope that two town reject it as well, or they can employ a meta play and pass it. There are four town on the mission, three spies outside the mission, and two town outside the mission. The spies outside the mission must vote yay until there are two yay votes from outside the mission. So two of them can yay it, or they can wait for a town to yay and then only put one yay in. This will force the town from outside the mission to reject it if they catch on. I feel that there is a very low chance that spies decided to do this, because there are some non-experienced Resistance players, and depending on town to catch on and make the proper play to reject is unreliable.
Anyways, this is what we must do for the next mission.
The next mission will fail, so there has to be a spy among Grack, VE, Cora, Rayn. Let's just say one for now, because I don't want to believe that two town from outside the mission yayed it. But the case where there are two will still be considered.
Since Sentinel was the 5th yay, he is absolutely confirmed as spy. As I explained above, spies can be meta for the first few votes, but they cannot be meta for the 5th yay since that's where it ends. When there are two yays from inside the mission and two yays from outside, then a town outside the mission absolutely cannot yay it. This confirms Sentinel as spy.
Coag and Hopeless are the two others from outside the mission that yayed it. If there is a spy in the mission, one of them has to be a spy because they yayed it. If there is not a spy in the mission, and the spies are trying to be meta, this also means that one of them has to be a spy. Yes, it is possible that they are both town and decided to throw the game, so if we lose, they're to blame. At this point, we have to assume that one of them is a spy.
There's also another exception where Sentinel is town and he just messed up, but that still just means that two out of Coag, Hopeless, and Sentinel are spies. I think I'm gonna be going this route because it's the safest and assumes the least, and also I think all three of them are quite scummy.
Koshi did something very important during the vote. Once the vote began, he said twice that he was gonna yay the mission, then he failed it. Let's just say he was a spy for a second. If there was a spy on the mission, by saying that he's gonna yay the mission, it bring skepticism to towns and makes them want to reject it more. If there was no a spy on the mission, then we'll know soon enough. Now if Koshi was town, then he could be saying that he was gonna yay this mission because spies would see that and be baited into giving a yay vote in hopes that Koshi the town would yay it with them. It also keeps other town on their toes since a player from outside the mission is supporting it. So basically, what Koshi did was strictly a good town play and would not be done by spy.
So from here on, I would like to 100% confirm Koshi as town for that reason, and for the reason that I refuse to believe that there are two town among Coag, Hopeless, and Sentinel. Having all of them play scummy, and two of them messing up and yay voting is too far-fetched, and even if town loses because of this, it's more their fault than mine.
We also have to confirm that I am town as well because I was the only other person from outside the mission to reject it. If this mission fails, there is no more room for information gathering, and we have to send all town for the mission, so I absolutely have to go on the mission.
Out of the people in the mission, I feel most comfortable with rayn since he's playing most consistently good town plays, so I want him on the next mission as well.
So my recommendations for the next mission:
-Chairman Ray
-Koshi
-Rayn
-???
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On January 06 2014 08:50 Corazon wrote:
I'm not entirely sure, but two things are confusing to me:
Why did Grack make his team and then vote No on it? The timing of his vote looks really suspicious because it was after his vote would not matter. Perhaps he could be try to distance himself from a mission he knew was going to fail?
Why did Sentinel immediately blame Grack for the sabotage? It looks especially weird because he voted yes to the team. I don't understand.
Also, CR's post really makes me feel like he knew the mission was going to end in failure.
In my opinion, I need to pick two out of these three to join hopeless as my proposed scum team.
Of course I knew the mission was going to end in failure. I explained why in my post. In a 5-4 pass vote where three yay votes are from outside the mission, the mission is guaranteed to fail. Do you understand this logic?
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On January 06 2014 09:47 Corazon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2014 09:44 Chairman Ray wrote:On January 06 2014 08:50 Corazon wrote:
I'm not entirely sure, but two things are confusing to me:
Why did Grack make his team and then vote No on it? The timing of his vote looks really suspicious because it was after his vote would not matter. Perhaps he could be try to distance himself from a mission he knew was going to fail?
Why did Sentinel immediately blame Grack for the sabotage? It looks especially weird because he voted yes to the team. I don't understand.
Also, CR's post really makes me feel like he knew the mission was going to end in failure.
In my opinion, I need to pick two out of these three to join hopeless as my proposed scum team. Of course I knew the mission was going to end in failure. I explained why in my post. In a 5-4 pass vote where three yay votes are from outside the mission, the mission is guaranteed to fail. Do you understand this logic? Why didn't you spend your time trying to convince people it was bad instead of writing some long and hard to follow post? You're not being proactive at all this game.
Did you read my post?
The hard evidence that pointed to the team being bad occurred when Hopeless voted yay. That was when the team was guaranteed to fail. Not before then. Sentinel voted yay 7 minutes after Hopeless voted yay, which was the 5th vote making the mission pass. If you are suggesting that I should have spent my time convincing people that the team was bad, that's what I was planning to do, but I only had a 7 minute window to do it, and unfortunately I was away during those 7 minutes.
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Corazon, what's your reasoning behind confirming Grack as spy?
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I am gonna nay vote this team because it doesn't contain Koshi.
Will be posting my reads/team when it is my turn to propose the mission. In the meantime I am curious to see how the next proposed team plays out.
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EPT
