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Oh i'd also like to share my experiences with Bereft and playerboy last game:
Bereft was playing similar to this game as town, except I think he played a bit more aggressive. It's always spread out posts like this with some questioning. He shares his reads when he feels its relevant and there are no targets but not otherwise. During the nightphase especially after a mis-lynch he pushed questions on people a LOT to try to get them to explain their plays. He didn't really trust anyone and as a result was candidate for first night kill. For me he is a very good townie, scary scum player based on his town play.
Playerboy is playing exactly as he was now. His posts are all over the place and he acts as if people make huge mistakes in their posts a lot. Expect him to get somewhat mad when people don't do what he's expecting them to do. He will rarely mention or talk to his mafia teammates and if he does he speaks of them as a neutral town read (not the highest of his town reads). After day 1 all his posts were manipulation by me and he seems very weak at forming fake opinions on subjects as scum. If he is scum, we will be able to break him if we continue to prod him for things. He will also not post if it is hard for him to make an opinion, he went fairly inactive towards the end of the game last game when it was important for all town to be posting. Keep an eye out for that. I don't think he is a good lynch target today, but it is important we keep the pressure up on him, need him to prove he is town.
I'd invite you guys to share your opinions on each other and myself as well. Since we are the only ones with previous game information (i think). If anybody else has played with each other previously please share as well.
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On October 16 2013 23:03 Bereft wrote:
@Balla - that was purely a timing/availability issue. If I'm home and have time to sit down and write something I will, regardless of day/night phase. might not be the best strategy, but what can you do, time constraints yo. I'm out tonight so not sure if I'll make it home before the night post - but if I do I'll write something.
that being said, what exactly "seems a little different" about my posting this time around? can you expand please? why such a strong read on Sagaz?
my general gut feeling is that only 1 out of the 6 votes on Vonthin is mafia. I would lean towards playerboy i
from this subset. no read on OWB yet - as per last game he has been super quiet. OWB please don't go down that same path again... all just because you played the same way as town doesn't mean you'll get a free pass this time around.
on a phone at work right now... I'll post more thoroughly tonight ><
Sorry, just went over your filter from last game again, just a feeling i had from memory but I'm completely wrong. You have literally done exactly the same thing as last game haha. That makes me more comfortable with you. But again, the way you play makes me scared of you as a scum player, you could definitely screw us hard. Only thing that is different so far is the post-day1 posts from you but I chalk that up to the situation being completely different, especially since you are the one who mislynched rather than others.
Anyways, my read on SagaZ is from his defense under pressure from Seuss. I liked it, he addresses most points that Seuss makes and tries to rectify the fact that he hasn't been posting content. Following the lynch, he follows up on his previous reads and tries to come up with a solid d2 target out of the guilty voters on d1. Seems like a good follow-up as a townie, as scum I would expect him to just let others post and try to figure out the next target, as thats how his play was indicating early on d1 and late d1, he was letting others figure out who to kill while he was somewhat under suspicion. I think he's playing solid. Again, could change but I don't have anything to prod him about atm.
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On October 16 2013 23:06 nyxnyxnyx wrote:
1. i wanted to go with whatever odin was going for. i have explained why in previous post. that was istandwithmitt
2. i put up the vote since i was gona sleep in a bit (vote would close at ~10am next morning, might not wake up before then)
3. people complained about my blind voting because i expressed that i personally did not think istandwithmitt was mafia (and i still think so). vonthin changed his vote to me on that feeling, and i thought well fuck you im voting you bitch
4. that is all
Please reply to these:
From me:
Nyx, why did you think Vonthin was mafia? What specifically did you not like about his small defense (things he didn't mention etc etc)? Why was switching his vote to you the last nail in the coffin for you for him being scum?
Your post now literally just reiterates what we already know. Have some reasoning. You have none right now besides bullshit. You're almost acting like istandwithmitt right now and that puts us in a terrible position.
On top of that, who are your scum reads now that Vonthin is dead? I'd like you to answer this before others share their reads.
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On October 17 2013 02:06 Seuss wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 01:47 onlywonderboy wrote:On October 16 2013 23:03 Bereft wrote:
@Balla - that was purely a timing/availability issue. If I'm home and have time to sit down and write something I will, regardless of day/night phase. might not be the best strategy, but what can you do, time constraints yo. I'm out tonight so not sure if I'll make it home before the night post - but if I do I'll write something.
that being said, what exactly "seems a little different" about my posting this time around? can you expand please? why such a strong read on Sagaz?
my general gut feeling is that only 1 out of the 6 votes on Vonthin is mafia. I would lean towards playerboy i
from this subset. no read on OWB yet - as per last game he has been super quiet. OWB please don't go down that same path again... all just because you played the same way as town doesn't mean you'll get a free pass this time around.
on a phone at work right now... I'll post more thoroughly tonight >< I think I'm quieter this game than last one but that's due to irl responsibilities. Last time I just dug myself a grave by getting super defensive and doing a poor job of explaining myself. As for my vote I was clear upfront I was putting a lot of weight into Suess' analysis since I know he's town and a really smart guy. I agree nyx has a lot of explaining to do. I realize he wanted to follow Odin, but the contradiction of not thinking mitt is mafia but still voting him anyway feels very scummy. Honestly the only person I have a strong read on right now is Odin (town). The initial bandwagon on mitt and changing votes from there was a bit of a clusterfuck so getting a read on these events hasn't been easy. Apparently I'm not smart enough, given the day's outcome. Why don't you think July is town? It's not impossible for him to be mafia, but it seems highly unlikely given that he had no reason to vote istandwithmitt over Vonthin. It could easily be him being careful with his vote so that nobody would be suspicious of it. Again though, I don't think July is mafia, but you shouldn't clear your suspicion of him just because he didn't switch his vote. Especially no reason to switch since it was clear that Vonthin was going to get lynched anyways. Hell, I did that last game as scum, if you aren't the deciding vote there is no reason to switch.
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@owb what do you think about the playerboy/e00 cop thing?
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On October 17 2013 03:42 Bereft wrote:
I actually don't think nyx has a lot of explaining to do, as some of you have put it. it's not a strong read, but I peg him as town right now. all he's done is shown a lack of confidence + some major sheeping, but his voting patterns actually are what make me skeptical that he'd be mafia. I'll reread when I get home tonight, but off the top of my head, he (a) showed an easy willingness to hammer someone who ultimately turned out to be town (mafia would've known vonthin would flip green and that hammering him the way nyx did would put them in a very bad light) and (b) encouraged us not to switch votes at the last minute (reinforces point a). just some food for thought...
I don't like this line of thinking, the first points I agree with, that kind of lack of confidence seems to be common with townies in these games (onlywonderboy specifically does it too) but the voting? But if that's the case its probably also common with scum. You could easily say that he knew that you would know that so he went for it anyways which is why I don't like thinking like that. Plus, the way he reacted to Vonthin voting for him tells me he didn't even think about if he was hammering him or not. He voted very fast and without hesitation. After that it's safe for a scum to not change their vote often, especially since him changing his vote later would not effect the outcome as others had joined in afterwards.
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I don't want to town read Bereft too early because I view him as a very good player and thus could easily get people into his pocket. I do think he's town but not enough for me to really rally behind him.
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@Bereft How do you know it wasn't mafia who killed playerboy? Information bias? (somewhat joking as i haven't ever seen 2 kills in a game so i have no idea if there's a way to tell otherwise and I still peg you as somewhat town, but it's a possible slip, will disregard for now)
Though I agree with your sentiment. I don't see a vig killing either target. I guess we will find out if anybody claims but I think we need to worry about an SK, not that that changes anything. I definitely don't agree with mitt killing playerboy or odin, if he was vig why wouldn't he just shoot ggtemplar who he has been accusing a lot. And for any other townie, why not kill nvrx or july who have been more suspicious than playerboy and odin.
Odin kill seems to point towards both July and nvrx, both people who have been under suspicion and he continued pushing them through the night, but that's only direct and obviously if they were mafia they should have thought about how much suspicion it puts on them. My scum reads on them so far fits them not thinking about it much and just trying to kill. Easily could be mafia trying to put suspicion on them though to push for them, which puts me a bit under the gun.
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On October 17 2013 12:13 Bereft wrote:
mafia should only have 1 factional night kill.
I just read the mafiascum wiki for C9±±. I believe we are in a TTT setup. 2 goons + mafia role blocker, 1 SK. no godfather. wiki also tells me 50% of setups include an SK. my earlier vig comment was silly.
yeah so why couldn't playerboy be the mafia kill?
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and why do you think we're in a TTT setup.. it could easily be any other setup..
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Alright, I have no reason not to believe the Bereft roleblock so I'm going to put him in my circle for now. The "slip" is quite interesting, but not one I would think that Bereft would make as a scum as I think he is much better than that.
We should look into E00 more now that playerboy is dead, as it's evident why playerboy was angry with him. Is it possible that E00 was actually trying to get a cop to come out and succeeded? I'm not sure, as I wasn't thinking about that at all.
E00 where are you? Please post thoughts on the night actions and discussion during the night. Can you re-iterate what your thoughts were as playerboy was calling you out for the cop stuff?
On October 14 2013 18:02 E00e wrote:
Right now it looks like you are not interested in a real discussion because you continue to make cryptic claims.
If there is something obviously bad just say it so I can improve.
If there is something bad that you for whatever reason dont want to point out right now then just say it.
This sounds like a post where you are trying to bait out some form of cop-claim when i read your filter.
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On October 17 2013 12:27 Bereft wrote:
"any other setup"?? balla are you purposely playing dumb or did you not read the setup description? the only other setup it could be is T, but TTT is more probable considering expected number of T's are 3.5.
ah you're right... i was going off memory from last game and forgot that not every setup has a roleblocker... derp.
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TTT is definitely most probable just based on the rolls but T is not impossible.
Regardless. How is this helpful for us atm? We're not going to know 100% until we have more role claims/flips.
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I guess that's helpful, but not really.. as its just how the game works, and irrelevant to whether it's T or TTT.
Seuss i'd prefer you comment on the night kills and what you think they mean. Who would do them and why? What do you think about the E00/playerboy topic? Does your previous scum read on July/SagaZ/nyx (i know some of the reads are weak and also some are possibly non-existant now, but still relevant) fit with the kills (I.E. do you think july would kill odin who was suspicious of him even though it would clearly cast suspicion on him)?
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I surely suspect nyxnyx on Odin, just cause he was blindly following him doesn't mean he's not a threat to him. Odin was pushing him fairly hard before getting killed. Seems like it would be a good target for him, even moreso than you, the confirmed town as you weren't putting him super hard under your radar. Other people who were pushing nyx were me and E00 but maybe Odin seems like a better kill for him because of the "blind following".
SagaZ you had a SK read on istandwithmitt, now that there's more posts from mitt, what do you think about it, now that there is a pretty much confirmed SK?
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istandwithmitt, if ggtemplar was scum, who do you think he would have killed last night? Do either of these kills fit with your read so far?
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On October 17 2013 15:45 E00e wrote:
I will have to time to read and post in ~3 hours. I thought Seuss explained my cop post and I dont understand why you think I tried to out a cop. I literally asked when the cop should come out and did not tell anyone to. I even explicitly stated that I dont want the cop to come out right now then. A discussion about when the cop should come out cannot be a bad thing for town except if we ignore other more important discussion topics to discuss it.
I don't disagree. You can see from my response to it yesterday. However, situation has changed now that playerboy is dead. Looking forward to your response later.
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I told you why i'm so weary with Bereft. This guy is good, he was good last game too. This is why I have to look at him so carefully. I know he's town now and I already said that, the role block confirms him. It's obvious that mafia thinks Bereft is a power role, but he might not be and they certainly don't know for sure. You shouldn't have called that out.
On E00e. I was the first one to call him out on the "cop claim debacle" after playerboy's death. If you think he's scum then I'm not scum with him and vice versa. If it wasn't for him, playerboy might not have gotten shot last night (I do have some part to play in this, but by the time i got back I think the damage was already done) and we might have a check.
I did not claim july was being careful. You're twisting my words. I was talking about it from the point of view of July being scum, he might not be willing to take a risk that would put him under suspicion on the vote, especially if he felt confident Vonthin was going to get lynched anyways (with two town leaders pushing for him).
On odinofpergo kill. Anybody would draw that conclusion. Onlywonderboy did even. I even said that it could be a kill to draw suspicion on them, leaving that as an option.
Also, how was GGTemplar "heavily against" the Vonthin vote. I don't see that at all, could you quote me some posts from his filter where you get that impression.
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I do agree with the nyxnyx as SK though. It seems really obvious now.
I would put onlywonderboy in a circle with me you bereft. I get a good feeling from him. He's playing very similarly to last game where he got lynched for it. Bereft might not be willing to let him slide for it again but I am. I think he would change a bit if he was scum. I would also put istandwithmitt in there quite tentatively because of his early play.
Everybody else I'm weary of. SagaZ has been terribly inactive recently which kind of changes my opinion of him from Day1. July's posting is quite useless as town, IMO which makes me uneasy and I agree with istandwithmitt on ggtemplar.
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It is not technically your fault. Playerboy should not have reacted the way he did. There's no way around that.
I don't see how you think this is insignificant though... I like how you are reacting but then again you should be willing to talk about it if you have nothing to hide. I don't have any further questions about it though. So I on't be pushing it further unless it becomes relevant again.
There is no vigi. Vigi is a straight up idiot if he shot either odin or playerboy.
You're under suspicion on playerboy because of the sole fact that you are the one who brought up the cop thing. You're right though, I should take a step back. ANYBODY who realized playerboy was cop based on his reaction could have killed him.
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EPT
