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1. Oatsmaster - town
2. Vivax the Third Class Passenger
3. Clarity_nl - town
4. IMCaptainJackSparrow - town
5. raynpelikoneet - town
6. Paperscraps the Third Class Passenger
7. Malongo - scum
8. VayneAuthority - town
9. Stutters695
10. hzflank - town
11. Koshi - scum
12. FirmTofu
13. justanothertownie
14. exarezee - town
Just my reads at the moment and something I can look back at. It looks like my current scum team is koshi, malongo and 2/3 from stutters, tofu, JAT. will look to see what makes the most sense to me.
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On July 31 2013 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 01:34 hzflank wrote:On July 31 2013 01:19 Oatsmaster wrote:On July 31 2013 01:13 hzflank wrote:
The actions of Rayn and Vayne around the fake cop check lead me to believe that they are likely the same alignment. Vayne should not of pulled that stunt as scum unless he is the GF.
Whats the difference between scum town and town town? Rayn never questioned Vayne motivations at all. When everyone else was trying to work out if Vayne was cop or scum, Rayn and Vayne were both trying to work out which third parties were scum based on their responses. They both jumped on JAT at the same time for the same reason. Basically, Rayn and Vayne were completely on the same page about everything. They were even on a similar page about Clarity's RB claim. I do not think that Rayn is scum but Vayne is town. That´s a fucking towniest post in this thread this day and nobody should try to lynch this guy ever. There is 100x more thought in this post than half of the players have expressed in the whole game.
except you and vayne could be both scum. i mean, it's a longshot at this point, but certainly possible.
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On July 31 2013 01:42 hzflank wrote:And so we end up at: If we mislynch today then we need to cop check Rayn. Which is where I started 
and if rayn is scum, vayne jumps to the top of the scum list as well
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@Tofu
Here is the problem with your argument. You can't say I change my reads all the time as town in games a,b,c -> I am changing my reads all the time this game, thus I am town. I don't know if you change your reads all the time as scum or not. I assume players will want to emulate town as scum. Thus, you should be changing your reads all the time as scum too. Thus your argument just cannot be made.
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On July 31 2013 02:44 FirmTofu wrote:
Also, why the fuck are people not looking at JAT? This guy made a SCUM SLIP? Anyone want to explain to me how this guy isn't 100% confirmed mafia?
his post could have just not been thought out very well. In fact, he agreed that he didn't think it through very well.
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On July 31 2013 02:47 justanothertownie wrote:
Yeah, FT... please use your brain (if you are scum you are excused). I didn't scumslip.
who do you want to lynch today and tomorrow (basically your top two scum reads)
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Yea, I agree. Tofu is much more likely to be scummy if either koshi or malongo flip scum. I'm pretty sure that both koshi and malongo are scum though, so tofu is probably scum too. But we are not advocating lynching tofu today correct? Because koshi absolutely has to go.
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but i also find it hard to believe the scum team is stutters/tofu/malongo/koshi
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On July 31 2013 02:58 justanothertownie wrote:
I really would like some opinions on my scum roleblocking and shooting vivax idea. If I'm overlooking facts it would be a waste of time looking into clarity now but if there's a good chance that this happened then I'm suspicious of him.
too many variables to look into this IMO. Although one thing I want to mention is that IF koshi/malongo/tofu are all scum and clarity is still alive, i'm pretty sure clarity is the 4th scum.
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@Justanothertownie
Tell me your top two scum suspects right now please.
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On July 31 2013 03:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 02:58 exarezee wrote:
but i also find it hard to believe the scum team is stutters/tofu/malongo/koshi Stutters is not scum.
Yeah, stutters is the oddone out of that scumteam.
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i have a pretty good feel for the scumteam if two of the scum are koshi and malongo. I think its clarity/malongo/koshi/JATorTofu
I'll post my reasoning for this if we lynch koshi and he flips scum. No need to post something that might not occur...and since we can post in night phase =)
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On July 31 2013 03:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:06 exarezee wrote:
i have a pretty good feel for the scumteam if two of the scum are koshi and malongo. I think its clarity/malongo/koshi/JATorTofu
I'll post my reasoning for this if we lynch koshi and he flips scum. No need to post something that might not occur...and since we can post in night phase =) Read Clarity´s post about the roleblock. It does not make sense that he is mafia. Look into Cora instead. He has been really bad on D2.
We have had 3 claims today. Everybody that has down this is town? Why would at least 1 scum NOT claim today? I'm really confused here.
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Put it this way, if one mafia fakeclaims and the end result is a mislynch today...we're at must lynch the next day. Not a bad gamble. If I were on the scum team, I definitely would have advocated some sort of claim from somebody.
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On July 31 2013 03:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:16 exarezee wrote:On July 31 2013 03:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 03:06 exarezee wrote:
i have a pretty good feel for the scumteam if two of the scum are koshi and malongo. I think its clarity/malongo/koshi/JATorTofu
I'll post my reasoning for this if we lynch koshi and he flips scum. No need to post something that might not occur...and since we can post in night phase =) Read Clarity´s post about the roleblock. It does not make sense that he is mafia. Look into Cora instead. He has been really bad on D2. We have had 3 claims today. Everybody that has down this is town? Why would at least 1 scum NOT claim today? I'm really confused here. What 3 claims are you talking about? There is one claim, and it´s HZ's. Roleblock claim is not a "claim", and why do you think scum need to claim at the start of D2?
ok, i'm really retarted. I thought clarity was claiming some town power role that was roleblocked and it didn't happen, thus why he claimed he was roleblocked. I did not know if you were a townie and were roleblocked, you would receive this information via PM
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@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town.
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On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town. Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily.
I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim.
A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so.
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On July 31 2013 04:05 justanothertownie wrote:
Why do you think there are two power roles and why do you assume scum thinks so?
3 power roles is pretty OP. The scum power roles are not nearly as powerful as the town ones. Standard setup in a 13er vanilla game would be 3 mafia 10 town with a detective only.
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On July 31 2013 04:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 04:03 exarezee wrote:On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town. Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily. I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim. A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so. I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before. TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok?
The reason I am discussing this with you is because you make these concrete statements as facts. "hzflank is town because of his claim." "clarity is town because of his claim". These posts are terrible for people that might not want to think themselves. I think you are town. Others think you are town. But following these ridiculous assumptions that people "won't do this as scum" is simply not true.
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On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:06 justanothertownie wrote:
First there is Tofu who I still don't like (still think he is scum) but to be fair I have to look into what happened last night again before I am 100% content saying he is scum. The same goes for hzflank (in his case there is even more new information to consider).
Besides there is this clarity thing. Depends totally on my idea to be correct though.
I also have to look into vayne again but currently I have no opinion on him. There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town.
don't post shit like this then. tell me you think he's town for something else. not because of this claim crap.
On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:06 justanothertownie wrote:
First there is Tofu who I still don't like (still think he is scum) but to be fair I have to look into what happened last night again before I am 100% content saying he is scum. The same goes for hzflank (in his case there is even more new information to consider).
Besides there is this clarity thing. Depends totally on my idea to be correct though.
I also have to look into vayne again but currently I have no opinion on him. There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town.
or this
On July 31 2013 03:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:06 exarezee wrote:
i have a pretty good feel for the scumteam if two of the scum are koshi and malongo. I think its clarity/malongo/koshi/JATorTofu
I'll post my reasoning for this if we lynch koshi and he flips scum. No need to post something that might not occur...and since we can post in night phase =) Read Clarity´s post about the roleblock. It does not make sense that he is mafia. Look into Cora instead. He has been really bad on D2.
or this
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EPT
