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On August 03 2013 09:46 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
I still don't think the switch is a smart move for a townie. If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? Why take that chance if you don't have foreknowledge.
If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? I don't get what you mean. If Umasi was scum there would be no reason to not for reps. Scum knew that reps was not scum before he got lynched right?
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RDO why did you hang back for the first part of day 1? You only started being active when we got close to lynching reps and suspicion was floating your way. Why is that?
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On August 03 2013 09:54 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 09:51 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 09:46 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
I still don't think the switch is a smart move for a townie. If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? Why take that chance if you don't have foreknowledge.
If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? I don't get what you mean. If Umasi was scum there would be no reason to not for reps. Scum knew that reps was not scum before he got lynched right? He did, which is my point. If reps had still been offed, which was pretty likely at the time, and he were mafia, everything would be on umasi at this point, no? Switching a vote to try to save scum? There are possible town motivations, true, but that seems like a chance not necessarily worth taking from the point of view of the individual player
? You are talking hypothetically if reps flipped red. Can we forget that. There is not hypothetical here. Reps flipped town. He was town and scum knew it. If Umasi was scum why would he switch his vote?
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On August 03 2013 09:54 Alakaslam wrote:
NO, SHUT UP FOR A SECOND.
Read the quote.
Can you please specify who you are talking to? You are hard to follow Slam. Don't just expect people to get what you are talking about.
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I mean I could be way over-thinking this but the only way you could get a scum read off of Umasi's vote switch is with this reasoning: Umasi is scum, but he changes his vote last minute to appear pro town with the intention of switching back if needed to secure a reps lynch.
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On August 03 2013 10:06 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 10:05 DeusXmachina wrote:
I mean I could be way over-thinking this but the only way you could get a scum read off of Umasi's vote switch is with this reasoning: Umasi is scum, but he changes his vote last minute to appear pro town with the intention of switching back if needed to secure a reps lynch. With no intention of switching back whatsoever!
Explain yourself please
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On August 03 2013 10:09 Alakaslam wrote:
Umasi:
Aggressively hates no lynch
Switches off reps, but doesn't really push for counter wagon: rather, he goes for no lynch or get Indio as "he is scummier than scam"
Night
HolyFlare implicates him and dies
First thin Umasi does? Vote Indio? NO!! VOTES SCAM!
His defenses are NOT making sense. Indio's "pro town post" came after that vote
Slam. I have already expressed my suspicion of Umasi many times. Like I said his vote switch in my opinion is a townie move.
Could you please address only that. Unless you already did and I missed it. You are hard to follow man.
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On August 03 2013 10:09 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 09:59 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 09:54 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:On August 03 2013 09:51 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 09:46 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
I still don't think the switch is a smart move for a townie. If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? Why take that chance if you don't have foreknowledge.
If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? I don't get what you mean. If Umasi was scum there would be no reason to not for reps. Scum knew that reps was not scum before he got lynched right? He did, which is my point. If reps had still been offed, which was pretty likely at the time, and he were mafia, everything would be on umasi at this point, no? Switching a vote to try to save scum? There are possible town motivations, true, but that seems like a chance not necessarily worth taking from the point of view of the individual player ? You are talking hypothetically if reps flipped red. Can we forget that. There is not hypothetical here. Reps flipped town. He was town and scum knew it. If Umasi was scum why would he switch his vote? Saving a townie does offer him some towncred points in a way At any rate, the hypothetical is important in this situation. I'm trying to explore his decision. And if he is town, he made that decision without any foreknowledge, so he would have to consider what happens in both scenarios. A) reps is red and he dies B) reps is green, some towncred, though obviously the suspicion C) reps is saved(unlikely). Given the risk of A happening if he is a unknowing townie, I find it an odd choice to make. Of course, if he is mafia, it's also not the best play for the attention. It still feels scummy to me
A bunch of scenarios where Umasi is town? We are talking about if Umasi is scum. He already expressed that he vote switched because he believed reps was a bad town. So situation A, reps flips red, that wouldn't implicate him as scum unless you don't believe that he was being genuine when he said that he thinks reps is town (which is what reps turned out to be).
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On August 03 2013 10:32 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 10:22 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 10:09 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:On August 03 2013 09:59 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 09:54 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:On August 03 2013 09:51 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 09:46 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
I still don't think the switch is a smart move for a townie. If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? Why take that chance if you don't have foreknowledge.
If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? I don't get what you mean. If Umasi was scum there would be no reason to not for reps. Scum knew that reps was not scum before he got lynched right? He did, which is my point. If reps had still been offed, which was pretty likely at the time, and he were mafia, everything would be on umasi at this point, no? Switching a vote to try to save scum? There are possible town motivations, true, but that seems like a chance not necessarily worth taking from the point of view of the individual player ? You are talking hypothetically if reps flipped red. Can we forget that. There is not hypothetical here. Reps flipped town. He was town and scum knew it. If Umasi was scum why would he switch his vote? Saving a townie does offer him some towncred points in a way At any rate, the hypothetical is important in this situation. I'm trying to explore his decision. And if he is town, he made that decision without any foreknowledge, so he would have to consider what happens in both scenarios. A) reps is red and he dies B) reps is green, some towncred, though obviously the suspicion C) reps is saved(unlikely). Given the risk of A happening if he is a unknowing townie, I find it an odd choice to make. Of course, if he is mafia, it's also not the best play for the attention. It still feels scummy to me A bunch of scenarios where Umasi is town? We are talking about if Umasi is scum. He already expressed that he vote switched because he believed reps was a bad town. So situation A, reps flips red, that wouldn't implicate him as scum unless you don't believe that he was being genuine when he said that he thinks reps is town (which is what reps turned out to be). It is because of towncred. A few were voicing concern with the lynch. And it was avoidable. But last minute switches look bad; if he had switched with me, we may have lynched scam, it could have happened. There were a few people uneasy, and they were on reps. If they switched, the wagons would have changed size- drawing reps wagon. But rather, votes Indio. Because there were vocal detractors to that, and no-lynch is better towncred. If we had successfully lynched scam and he was town, it would have implicated Umasi and I, and reps. Since this is a scenario where Umasi is scum, that mean scum is implicated. Don't do it that way then. To just sit on it after having been vocally uneasy looks scummy too. People call it "distancing from the lynch". What else Sorry for tunnel but I have never been so convinced
Fair enough. This by far and away the best response to his vote switch yet. I am still not convinced. Look where it got him. If he is scum that vote switch was a really bad and stupid move. It got him way to much attention.
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On August 03 2013 10:30 Umasi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 10:28 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:On August 03 2013 10:22 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 10:09 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:On August 03 2013 09:59 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 09:54 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:On August 03 2013 09:51 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 03 2013 09:46 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
I still don't think the switch is a smart move for a townie. If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? Why take that chance if you don't have foreknowledge.
If reps dies and flips red, he is pretty much boned, no? I don't get what you mean. If Umasi was scum there would be no reason to not for reps. Scum knew that reps was not scum before he got lynched right? He did, which is my point. If reps had still been offed, which was pretty likely at the time, and he were mafia, everything would be on umasi at this point, no? Switching a vote to try to save scum? There are possible town motivations, true, but that seems like a chance not necessarily worth taking from the point of view of the individual player ? You are talking hypothetically if reps flipped red. Can we forget that. There is not hypothetical here. Reps flipped town. He was town and scum knew it. If Umasi was scum why would he switch his vote? Saving a townie does offer him some towncred points in a way At any rate, the hypothetical is important in this situation. I'm trying to explore his decision. And if he is town, he made that decision without any foreknowledge, so he would have to consider what happens in both scenarios. A) reps is red and he dies B) reps is green, some towncred, though obviously the suspicion C) reps is saved(unlikely). Given the risk of A happening if he is a unknowing townie, I find it an odd choice to make. Of course, if he is mafia, it's also not the best play for the attention. It still feels scummy to me A bunch of scenarios where Umasi is town? We are talking about if Umasi is scum. He already expressed that he vote switched because he believed reps was a bad town. So situation A, reps flips red, that wouldn't implicate him as scum unless you don't believe that he was being genuine when he said that he thinks reps is town (which is what reps turned out to be). My point is its a bad town play if he wants to actually survive, which is a valid consideration. If he were town, it would be stupid. If he is not stupid, which I think we can accept at this point as fact, then it's probably not a play he makes if he is town. That is my point. Thats obviously not my only reason for suspecting him anyway.. Doesn't even matter, townies like to survive but I have nothing to fear, and I don't play to get towncred.
Ageed. Not a bad town play if reps flipped scum. This alone should not dictate whether Umasi gets lynched or not. Why should town care about appearing pro town? If you are town it will show.
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Which move would most appear like a attempt at blending in? A) Switching a vote last minute or B) Sticking with your vote
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Umasi, you are one of the hardest reads. Great post. Not going to focus on scam because there is pretty much nothing that hasn't been said at this point. Do you guys want me to focus on Gotard tonight?
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For what reasons are you guys not suspicious of RDO?
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"On the survival side, mafia generally try to blend in. The easiest job for the mafia is when they get to sit and watch the town kill themselves, as townies have a natural inclination to kill people who stick out in the crowd." - A General Guide To Mafia by Incognito.
This has been the focus of my analysis after the reps lynch. For this reason alone I no longer suspect that Umasi is scum. I understand that it's not always in the best interest of mafia to blend in. Scum might draw attention to themselves if it means pushing an agenda or causing confusion. My opinion on Umasi is subject to change pending a really strong case against him. I would like to note that he seems overly-defensive at times. See Umasi's post here
sc_a.M
I think the best thing we can all hope for is a mod kill. I do not believe scam is scum. I read his actions as a complete lack of motivation with regards to this game. He does not even seem like he cares. In no way is he acting like a scum. He is not pushing an agenda, he is not causing confusion, he is not trying to get a townie lynched, and he is not blending in. I do not think we should waste our day 2 lynch on scam.
RDaneelOlivaw
See my previous post on him here He has become suspiciously active only after he was pressed to post more often. This was his response when I questioned him for lurking at the beginning of the game:
On August 03 2013 09:56 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 09:53 DeusXmachina wrote:
RDO why did you hang back for the first part of day 1? You only started being active when we got close to lynching reps and suspicion was floating your way. Why is that? I decided to actually play the game. Yeah, I can see where its suspicious from your point of view. Once I actually made a couple posts defending myself and started reading the thread more closely I got hooked in
I was unsatisfied with this answer. If I can find some additional compelling evidence against him I might press for a RDO lynch day 2. He is trying to blend in, and might be pushing an agenda. Think it's worth looking into.
Zyrre
I get a scummy vibe off of Zyrre. There is not a lot we can go off of because he has not posted much. He seems to be trying to blend in. He jumped on the wagon against reps offering absolutely nothing to the debate. He has not taken a STRONG stance on anyone at this point. His post regarding infii is hardly worth mentioning. Finally his reason for voting against reps did not seem well thought out, rather it seemed like something he provided to avoid suspicion.
Nightcat
Nightcat is similar to Zyrre in that he has not contributed much. I only like one post of his here. He has so many pointless 1-2 line posts that really bug me. Seems scummy. He has not taken a strong stance on anyone and seems to regurgitate a lot of info that others share. Seems like a blender. When I have a little more time I am going to go look at his previous mafia games and see if he behaves this way.
StimaDDict
I don't have much to say about Stim. His posts are absolute garbage. He was very harsh on reps which could have been a tactic to secure the lynch. I will also look into his previous games to see if he behaves this way (if he has any).
Gotard
Gotard is definately a lurker. He took a bizzare stance against infii. He has not had a whole lot of good posts. Feel like I am just repeating what others have said, but w/e it is the truth. This is actually getting really frustrating at this point. Ughh, moving on. Infii and Umasi have good posts articulating their suspicion of Gotard. They do a hell of a lot better than what I wrote. Honestly, I don't really have anything to add on Gotard. He seems like he is trying to blend in.
Umasi's post: here and Infii's here
Infii
Not going to pursue him right now. He has some strong posts. Seems town at the moment. However, I disagree with his read on Umasi for reason that I already addressed above.
I am not looking into anyone I did not cover in this list
I plan on spending more time analyzing:
1. Zyrre
2. Nightcat
3.Stim
In no particular order.
Reads on the individuals I covered tonight
1. Scam - Unmotivated town. Hopefully gets mod killed. Not worth lynching day 2.
2. RDO - Scum. Seems to be attempting to blend in. Active in defending himself. Lurking day 1.
3. Zyrre - Scum or 3rd party. Lack of strong analytical posts. Doesn't really take aggressive stances on anyone.
4. Nighcat - Scum or 3rd party. Similar to Zyrre.
5. Stim - Undecided. Not helping town out at all.
6. Gotard - Scum. For reasons I share with a few others.
I realize they all can't be scum. A few of them might be bad townies, or not motivated. A few of them might prove me wrong. Alas, that is undoubtedly one of the reasons this game can be very challenging.
Favorites for lynching day 2
RDO, Gotard, and Nightcat/Zyrre
As we get closer to the end of day two I will narrow this down.
Finally, I copied Flare. All names are links to their filters.
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Looking forward to it Zyrre. I am interested in hearing your scum reads. Who are you looking into?
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Nightcat, if you had to vote right now who would you vote to lynch and why?
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I guess if you want to see all my posts just look at Zyrre's latest post. Don't even bother using that filter button. Zyrre, would you rather have me not abide by that quote as a possible way to find scum?
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Good Quote Here
He is saying that generally speaking mafia try to blend in. More often than not that is their mindset. I would rather use that as a reason to be suspicious then the flip side, mafia being very active and aggressive to appear pro town. Umasi was one of the first ones to vote against reps, you could call that an aggressive play. At times he was one of the most outspoken individuals against reps, and at others he seemed to think reps was just a bad townie. His indecision is not scummy. Rather, it just means he couldn't make up his mind, and rightfully so because reps turned out to be town. In addition, Umasi has done several other things to draw attention to himself, for example, he vote-switched last minute and didn't really give a good reason why, and he has been inconsistent at times. I see this is a townie mindset. Townies are the ones who should be inconsistent right? They are constantly trying to analyze scum reads. Scum reads are highly subject to change. Again, think of the flip side. If you are a scum and you want to push an agenda, maybe even get someone mislynched, what would you have to gain from indecision? Not only would it draw attention to yourself, but it would weaken your agenda. For these reasons, I am not voting against Umasi. I was suspicious of him for early game, yes, but that vote switch got me thinking. The more I thought about the vote switch the more it seemed like a townie thing to do. I realize if Umasi is scum I will be boned, but can you really blame me for thinking this way? If Umasi is scum than maddddd props to him.
I have already expressed my suspicion of Gotard. I agree with what others have said. I am not going to make a huge case against him right now because I feel like I would be regurgitating a lot of information. At this point in time he is the best candidate to vote for because he appears scummy and is most likely to be lynched. We can probably count on a Stim vote against him right?
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On August 05 2013 03:16 Zyrre wrote:
Also note the difference in DeusX behavior in day 1 and day 2 lynch. Both were unsure lynches until the end. In the first one no mafia was under suspicion, he then posted his aggressive rant about sticking to it and getting a lynch. Today when the alternative is mafia(umasi) he posts an almost unreadable book about umasis innocence.
I don't even no way to say Zyrre. Your whole premise is based on Umasi being scum. That is soooooo stupid. What a shitty way to play. This guy MUST be scum. WAT OMG someone is defending him, then he must be SCUM OMG SCUM. Put some real thought into your reads for shits sake.
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EPT
