[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 99

On July 11 2013 02:25 Koshi wrote:
@Chezinu It's funny how you actually spoilered your analysis in that post. Nice to see you prioritizing the most relevant part correctly.

PS: I totally fell for that Bank transition post where you could buy nukes. Pretty awesome post.

On July 11 2013 04:34 Xatalos wrote:
LOL goodbye Ace. I agree that this nuke doesn't make sense from scum, but why would a townie not claim it either? I think the chances of it coming from 3P are 50-100%, town 10-50% and scum 1-10%. 3P could have some weird win condition (or simply want to kill other players), so this nuke wouldn't be surprising in any way from 3P. Basically it's the best explanation with the least (if any) question marks (there was also some flavor of nuke-firing planar dragons in the rules so this could be it).

If someone has an anti-nuke/redirect available now, do NOT use it! Here are the main reasons:

1) at the end of D1 Ace focused on talking about policy (no-lynching if there was no single popular candidate - most anti-town policy so far) and asking questions unrelated to the lynch candidates, fluff, voted DI without any reasoning and overall didn't seem to care about the lynch in any meaningful way

2) rayn "admits" launching the nuke at Meapak (Ace should have, as a veteran town player, soon or at least later on understood that it wasn't a real claim) - but rather Ace starts flinging suspicion at him instantly, focusing on the DI -> ON switch mostly for some odd reason, although rayn was behind me and austin in influencing that, and Ace never admits what most (everyone?) else assumed - it was a plan to catch scum, not a scum plan to gain negative towncred - just can't believe town Ace would play like this

But now Ace is dead anyways, so no need to pursue that further.

##Unvote

austinmcc is posting a lot lately and making some sense. Leaning scum on him still, but there's a reasonable risk of too hastily lynching him and losing a strong endgame townie (he seems to be improving his posting with time and I agree with several of his later posts). I think it might be better to give him some more time. If he succeeds in redeeming himself after the abysmal D1 and suspicious reaction to rayn's claim, it'll have to be something truly epic and pro-town.

The case on DI (XigXag) is basically that he's been inactive, which points to his unmotivated scum meta. It's a good argument, although a bit lacking as the ONLY argument. I want to give XigXag a chance to redeem his predecessor first (not an easy job).

Currently I'd most like to lynch MajuGarzett. He's clearly been online at various points, but has chosen to post fluff and a couple of reads here and there without actually being involved in the thread or scumhunting. Also noteworthy is the same suspicious reaction as austinmcc (a vague show of interest and then ignoring it) to rayn's claim.

##Vote MajuGarzett

On July 11 2013 04:46 Chezinu wrote:


You maths don't work...scum!

On July 11 2013 04:38 austinmcc wrote:
Xatalos, what are your thoughts on the exchange between Oats and I, specifically the Oats end of things?

On July 11 2013 04:46 Chezinu wrote:


You maths don't work...scum!

On July 11 2013 05:41 MajuGarzett wrote:

While not all my posts have reads in them, I don't think its fair to call them fluff. At the very least I was trying to gain more information with which to make decisions by pressuring other players. On the reaction to Rayn, I was in the thread and expressed interest, then I left and by the time I was back all the talk about Rayn's motives had happened and after reading it I wasn't suspicious of him.


VA says I never formed new reads but I think I was one of the first to talk about being suspicious of VA. I know I was suspicious of him before Firm Tofu brought it up. I also think my points against Onegu were novel. I would like clarification on how I was scummy on the Rayn thing unless its for the same reasdons that Xata stated.


I'm willing to give DI's replacement some time. As there were others who suspected VA and none on Onegu

##Vote: VayneAuthority

On July 11 2013 07:03 Xatalos wrote:


Hmm. I have a hard time accepting that Oatsmaster would be scum (saved me unnecessarily D1) and you town (with you doing nothing D1, then launching the lynch on ON and immediately starting to back off from it, then almost completely ignoring rayn's fakeclaim... yeah, the list goes on).

With that said, that exchange looked like you were figuring out stuff while Oatsmaster was just... being pretty defensive and posting one-liners (and his stance on DI felt a bit confusing). If I had to look at just that single exchange, without looking at anything else, I'd say that you were town and Oatsmaster scum. Maybe town&town, that's possible. Probably not scum&scum though, unless it was some carefully crafted strategy to put distance between two scum (unlikely).

But with THAT said, I don't have to look at just that single exchange, and maybe Oatsmaster had a bad day and you were putting in a lot of effort to look town. I find it especially hard to believe that scum Oatsmaster would use his anti-nuke to save me D1.

On July 11 2013 07:25 austinmcc wrote:
The one think I hate about my scumreads right now is some are almost certainly wrong. If I think jampidampi, oats, VA, and DI are all scummy (FirmTofu off the list for now, chalking those posts up as just being weird)...then I have two problems:

(1) Assuming somewhat normal balance, I'd expect a more veteran-y player in the mix. Game with MZ, Ace, snb, Chez, ghost, all around a good while and MZ/Ace/Chez for a very long while, yet none of them on the scumteam?

(2) I end up just looking at people that are somewhat active. So many hard lurkers that we probably have scum in the group and just don't know where.

Perhaps larger scumteam, some of those reads surely off, and there's the possibility of 3P(s). This lynch is gonna suck if DI is actually 3P and not scum, could be one reason everyone willing to jump on him - he's not playing town game but mafia not even caring about bussing, they just know he's not with them.

On July 11 2013 07:28 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:


But then why did everyone jump off of him? A few mafia could've stayed on Dandel to build street cred if and when OriginalName flipped town. Unless I'm mistaken, virtually everyone switched to ON.