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On July 11 2013 07:18 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2013 07:03 Xatalos wrote:On July 11 2013 04:38 austinmcc wrote:
Xatalos, what are your thoughts on the exchange between Oats and I, specifically the Oats end of things? Hmm. I have a hard time accepting that Oatsmaster would be scum (saved me unnecessarily D1) and you town (with you doing nothing D1, then launching the lynch on ON and immediately starting to back off from it, then almost completely ignoring rayn's fakeclaim... yeah, the list goes on). With that said, that exchange looked like you were figuring out stuff while Oatsmaster was just... being pretty defensive and posting one-liners (and his stance on DI felt a bit confusing). If I had to look at just that single exchange, without looking at anything else, I'd say that you were town and Oatsmaster scum. Maybe town&town, that's possible. Probably not scum&scum though, unless it was some carefully crafted strategy to put distance between two scum (unlikely). But with THAT said, I don't have to look at just that single exchange, and maybe Oatsmaster had a bad day and you were putting in a lot of effort to look town. I find it especially hard to believe that scum Oatsmaster would use his anti-nuke to save me D1. I will mostly agree with this if I didn't have my role PM. Some thoughts: - Read Oats's filter and take out the defense. He's got pages, way more than I remembered, yet most of it is one-off comments on something that happened or asking someone for their reads. The filter reads like involvement w/o any sort of pushing the game forward himself
- His defense on you is pretty much the towniest thing in there. However, unless he just did it for fun, it had to be activated in thread. scumOats would have a hard time using that on a scumbuddy because - (1) if the scumbuddy is being nuked because of consensus scumread, Oats can't really go YOLO SAVE THAT DUDE and (2) if he or his defense target ever flip scum, the other guy is heavily implicated. IMO, he doesn't give up much by defending a townie, he stops one KP but gives himself carte blanche for a bit.
- Sweet Jesus maybe he's just having a bad day, but he can admit that. You find me scummy for some of my play, but I don't think I'm your tip-top scumread. Oats walks in and I'm his #1 scumread, he doesn't seem to have read thread, and he doesn't seem to BE reading thread as we talk (MZ can shut down nuke factories, therefore scum probably have nuke factories; he doesn't seem to remember why I was scummy on FirmTofu at one point, even though he AGREED with my read at that point)
Another way to look at it is...you're mafia and you have a one-shot save from a nuke, but you have to post in thread to activate it. Do you use it on a buddy or on town?
Well, I guess that makes sense. It'd be pretty risky (maybe practically impossible) to save a scumbuddy with that. Even at LYLO it might out you (AND your scumbuddy), losing the game. So it's not unimaginable for scum Oatsmaster to save me with it and bank some nice towncred early on to avoid attention.
Now that I think about it, if I was scum and in Oatsmaster's situation, I would very possibly use it on a townie to gain easy towncred. Of course if there was an active and somewhat townish scum player, that might be an OK target as well... Although it might backfire heavily if one of you two flipped at any point. Yeah, it's definitely safer to use it on townie. Especially if there is nobody even semi-townish in the scumteam, it would basically be suicide to save any of your scumbuddies, and saving even just a *semi*-townish player would cast doubt on you.
On the other hand, it would also make sense to save it for endgame - maybe there's a situation where you have 2 scum (Oatsmaster + semi-townish scum) and 3 townies (all null or semi-townish), then you could acceptably save your scumbuddy from a nuke. So I wouldn't completely negate the town points his anti-nuke gave him, but it seems logical to reduce them a bit after thinking about his *realistic* options.
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On July 11 2013 07:46 Ace wrote:
Xatalos you're kinda hasty with the judgement. You shot that nuke didn't you?
LOL no. Unless you forgot - I already roleclaimed during D1. Are you accusing me of fakeclaiming? What would I possibly have gained from that?
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Going to sleep now, continued tomorrow.
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Xat, I agree that saving it is a perfectly good play. But you need there to be a lategame nuke and probably on your buddy and not yourself? Dunno if he can defend himself.
With the rest of his filter and his posts earlier in this day phase though, I just don't buy him as town.
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just yesterday you were willing to believe the nuke came from scum after rayne's lie, and now you conveniently believe it came from 3p?
Also most everyone DID NOT assume rayne's plan was legit. Go back and read that day. You are stretching the truth of what actually happened.
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wow another lie. I was focused on talking about policy?
Really?
Once again, go back and look at how we got into the no lynch thing. I NEVER said anything about no lynching. Look at who brought up that discussion when they questioned me.
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You talking to Xatalos with those? I think you're probably town, Ace, but I'm even more certain he's town, and it seems really unlikely at this point that he'd be scum.
Do you think he's just wrong in his read or was scummily trying to push you?
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Xalatos has been reading the thread. There is no way he could be that off base with how this game has been going. You can re-read those parts of the day yourself and see.
Like I said earlier, that is some hasty judgement. He somehow knew rayne was pulling a plan? fine. But to say "most everyone" knew it also? Thats bs. To say I was pushing no lynch policy discussion, as if it that is a scum trait, is dumb. Especially when I wasn't. He's been reading - he KNOWS that isn't how it happened.
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I'm so far behind. Ace who would you recommend I look at?
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me of course 
and then Xalatos, DI/Xig/, Onegu for now.
Special moments:
The ON lynch, rayne's fake claim, and the early nukes Day 1.
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I can't make anything concrete out of this game. But I'll add some ideas I had while trying to catch up. I don't know if they are useful for the game, but they might be useful for you guys to profile me. They are in a random order.
- Stutters695 is doing nothing. His last post was 30 hours ago saying that he was "in full force".
- During the vote for lynch there were so many people going for random targets. I don't understand why anyone would want to do that.
- FirmTofu is pointing fingers a lot (7 players) but most of the time to targets that are never going to get lynched. Or at least not in the first 96 hours. During the lynch he stayed on VA while his first scum target was DI. OriginalName was one of the guys that wasn't yet called out by him. I don't understand why he didn't vote on DI. And now he is on jampidampi...
- austinmcc his posts are clear and well constructed. I could see myself following his lead. He looks a bit like me in my previous game (this is not a compliment), a lot of suspicious post in the first day but completely picking his game up after that. I don't really understand how the bickering with Oats started, but I can find myself in the reasoning. However, with Xatalos bringing up that defense... Also, wouldn't it be smart for Oats to just not defend and keep his mouth shut? Now he lost his defensive missile on Day 1. But like I said, austinmcc is town for me.
- Chezina is completely random. Too much imagination or too much time on his hands, probably both. Scum or blue role that doesn't want to die? Anyway, I like the content of his posts. For amusement.
- Z-Boson is another completely random guy, but unlike Chez he seems to have an agenda. I don't know, he posts like he is not part of the town, like a guy on his own. If I knew from myself I wouldn't be superactive, I would be more like a sheep, following the active guys. I see him as 3rd party but that is only because he is not playing ball.
- I dont understand why Ryan died. I actually wanted to make a post about how he was probably scum, I was pretty proud of myself until I saw he died during night 1...
- I can't figure out Ace, WoS, geript. I read their posts and my brain just can't comprehend what is happening. It might be because I joined this game late. I did like geript his analysis on the 2 night kills.
Anyway, I am also going to bed. I will be posting a lot tomorrow when I am at work :D
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oh and yes look at austin's posts about Oats
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On July 11 2013 07:31 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2013 07:28 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On July 11 2013 07:25 austinmcc wrote:
The one think I hate about my scumreads right now is some are almost certainly wrong. If I think jampidampi, oats, VA, and DI are all scummy (FirmTofu off the list for now, chalking those posts up as just being weird)...then I have two problems:
(1) Assuming somewhat normal balance, I'd expect a more veteran-y player in the mix. Game with MZ, Ace, snb, Chez, ghost, all around a good while and MZ/Ace/Chez for a very long while, yet none of them on the scumteam?
(2) I end up just looking at people that are somewhat active. So many hard lurkers that we probably have scum in the group and just don't know where.
Perhaps larger scumteam, some of those reads surely off, and there's the possibility of 3P(s). This lynch is gonna suck if DI is actually 3P and not scum, could be one reason everyone willing to jump on him - he's not playing town game but mafia not even caring about bussing, they just know he's not with them. But then why did everyone jump off of him? A few mafia could've stayed on Dandel to build street cred if and when OriginalName flipped town. Unless I'm mistaken, virtually everyone switched to ON. ON was lynched with 11 votes, DI had 8. Within the last 20 minutes, at least 3 voters (too lazy to click back a page) hopped on ON, and only one of them hopped off DI. So at 20 to deadline, it was 9-8 for DI, and then at deadline only 11-8 for ON. Still a heavy vote on him. Some votes didn't move due to people not being around it looks like, but only 2 people ever budged off DI. And one of em ended up on VA, not on either real target. Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 07:00 s0Lstice wrote:
TARGET LOCKED IN. FINAL COUNT.
geript (0): raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
johnnywup (0): VayneAuthority, Xatalos, WaveofShadow, TanGeng, Abenson, OriginalName
Chezinu (2): raynepelikoneet, Onegu, Ace, TanGeng, Abenson, Xatalos,
raynpelikoneet, jampidampi, gumshoe
WaveofShadow (0): geript, johnnywup
Onegu (1): Nirvana.Gabo, MajuGarzett
austinmcc (0): Xatalos
raynepelikoneet (0): Alakaslam
Z-BosoN (0): Chezinu
Dandel Ion (8): johnnywup, WaveofShadow, OriginalName, Ace, VayneAuthority,
strongandbig, Meapak_Ziphh, Alakaslam, Stutters695, Nirvana.Gabo
Nirvana.Gabo (1): Oatsmaster, raynpelikoneet, jampidampi
ghost_403 (0): Alakaslam, Chezinu
VayneAuthority (2): FirmTofu, Alakaslam, Alakaslam, FirmTofu, Chezinu
CaucasianAsian (1): geript, Z-BosoN
Oatsmaster (0): Chezinu
jampidampi (0): Chezinu
OriginalName (11): austinmcc, Chezinu, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion, Xatalos, FirmTofu,
Alakaslam, geript, ghost_403, Chezinu, geript, TanGeng, gumshoe, johnnywup, Onegu
Alakaslam (0): geript
TARGET: OriginalName has been obliterated!
That makes sense. I didn't look at the voting patterns too carefully.
So now it's just a matter of everyone suddenly switching to ON from zero to leading lynch candidate. Back to the thread I go.
Also I just got HotS delivered an hour ago, so I'll try to balance that and mafia.
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I started to read the thread again. I'm picking up a few strong town reads. In gonna try and use process of elimination to find the mafia team.
Be back in a bit.
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Any redirects should consider redirecting to stutters.
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On July 11 2013 08:40 Ace wrote:me of course and then Xalatos, DI/Xig/, Onegu for now. Special moments: The ON lynch, rayne's fake claim, and the early nukes Day 1. Maaaaan, how come your reads aren't my read. I don't like xatalos for mafia, and I don't really think Onegu is scum, based on the roles that make sense for him to be kind of sort of dancing around having.
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On July 11 2013 09:30 Stutters695 wrote:
Nah that'd be dumb.
No. You choosing to not do shit is dumb. Here, I'm giving you 3 nukes. You must fire them today. Who you firing at and why?
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On July 11 2013 09:30 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2013 08:40 Ace wrote:me of course and then Xalatos, DI/Xig/, Onegu for now. Special moments: The ON lynch, rayne's fake claim, and the early nukes Day 1. Maaaaan, how come your reads aren't my read. I don't like xatalos for mafia, and I don't really think Onegu is scum, based on the roles that make sense for him to be kind of sort of dancing around having.
Why don't you like an Onegu lynch?
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On July 11 2013 09:41 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2013 09:30 austinmcc wrote:On July 11 2013 08:40 Ace wrote:me of course and then Xalatos, DI/Xig/, Onegu for now. Special moments: The ON lynch, rayne's fake claim, and the early nukes Day 1. Maaaaan, how come your reads aren't my read. I don't like xatalos for mafia, and I don't really think Onegu is scum, based on the roles that make sense for him to be kind of sort of dancing around having. Why don't you like an Onegu lynch? Cuz his filter makes me think he's a particular thing. And that thing seems far more likely to be town. Maybe he's being super duper clever, but I only see a couple options for what he's dancing around.
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EPT
