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[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 85

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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 09 2013 13:19 GMT
#1681
On July 09 2013 21:38 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 21:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
rofl Ace. So as scum i claimed a nuke i did not need to claim when i'm under zero pressure. I also swung the lynch fron DI to ON. Makes no sense from town point of view considering that i have called DI town and ON scum the whole game. Of course it does not make sense, town!rayn could have done nothing but to lynch Dandel, his town read, obviously. Also it was certainly rayn who swung the lynch, actually rayn is posting via Austin about all this stuff why ON is scum, right?


So what if you're under 0 pressure? We've seen scum make plays without pressure multiple times. That isn't a legit excuse. MZ was the one who went back and caught you in a lie. You somehow knew MZ was going to catch you ahead of time and set this all up with a fakeclaim of the nuke, to then say it was a gamble all this time? right.



What was the lie MZ caught me in?
table for two on a tv tray
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 09 2013 13:21 GMT
#1682
On July 09 2013 22:19 geript wrote:
Hey Xatalos. I have to disagree with you. At the time, I thought Rayn launched the nuke (obviously). I agree that his actions on congruous and aren't making much sense. He hasn't given any real reasons for why MZ over half a billion other players. Much like Chezinu, he hasn't given any reason for firing it as early as he did either. Neither do I see a town motivation in "looking for a claimer" for your own damn nuke.


Wtf? He didn't launch the nuke, so how could he explain his reasons for targeting Meapak? Are you even reading now?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 09 2013 13:22 GMT
#1683
On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.

Here's my new thought process.

Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.

stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?

Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.

rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.

If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum?

You can't possibly be this stupid. If the nuke was from a townie they would have CC'd me. That was another reason fopr fakeclaiming the nuke. It's sure from scum now.
table for two on a tv tray
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 09 2013 13:24 GMT
#1684
On July 09 2013 22:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.

Here's my new thought process.

Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.

stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?

Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.

rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.

If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum?

You can't possibly be this stupid. If the nuke was from a townie they would have CC'd me. That was another reason fopr fakeclaiming the nuke. It's sure from scum now.


Stupid - or scum? (or both lol)
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
July 09 2013 13:25 GMT
#1685
On July 09 2013 22:21 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:19 geript wrote:
Hey Xatalos. I have to disagree with you. At the time, I thought Rayn launched the nuke (obviously). I agree that his actions on congruous and aren't making much sense. He hasn't given any real reasons for why MZ over half a billion other players. Much like Chezinu, he hasn't given any reason for firing it as early as he did either. Neither do I see a town motivation in "looking for a claimer" for your own damn nuke.


Wtf? He didn't launch the nuke, so how could he explain his reasons for targeting Meapak? Are you even reading now?

I don't believe that he didn't launch the nuke. I'm not seeing a real masterplan behind fake claiming a nuke. As a matter of fact, just after it was launched I was all like "Yo rayn was that you?" Because rayn is that type of player to do shit like that.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 09 2013 13:25 GMT
#1686
It's decided, I'm voting for Ace. I refuse to believe he's town after all this.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 09 2013 13:27 GMT
#1687
On July 09 2013 22:25 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:21 Xatalos wrote:
On July 09 2013 22:19 geript wrote:
Hey Xatalos. I have to disagree with you. At the time, I thought Rayn launched the nuke (obviously). I agree that his actions on congruous and aren't making much sense. He hasn't given any real reasons for why MZ over half a billion other players. Much like Chezinu, he hasn't given any reason for firing it as early as he did either. Neither do I see a town motivation in "looking for a claimer" for your own damn nuke.


Wtf? He didn't launch the nuke, so how could he explain his reasons for targeting Meapak? Are you even reading now?

I don't believe that he didn't launch the nuke. I'm not seeing a real masterplan behind fake claiming a nuke. As a matter of fact, just after it was launched I was all like "Yo rayn was that you?" Because rayn is that type of player to do shit like that.


Read jampidampi's post, I think he explained better why it makes no sense for rayn to have launched the nuke as either alignment.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
jampidampi
Profile Joined December 2011
Finland386 Posts
July 09 2013 13:28 GMT
#1688
On July 09 2013 22:25 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:21 Xatalos wrote:
On July 09 2013 22:19 geript wrote:
Hey Xatalos. I have to disagree with you. At the time, I thought Rayn launched the nuke (obviously). I agree that his actions on congruous and aren't making much sense. He hasn't given any real reasons for why MZ over half a billion other players. Much like Chezinu, he hasn't given any reason for firing it as early as he did either. Neither do I see a town motivation in "looking for a claimer" for your own damn nuke.


Wtf? He didn't launch the nuke, so how could he explain his reasons for targeting Meapak? Are you even reading now?

I don't believe that he didn't launch the nuke. I'm not seeing a real masterplan behind fake claiming a nuke. As a matter of fact, just after it was launched I was all like "Yo rayn was that you?" Because rayn is that type of player to do shit like that.

I have post here (click the link) detailing why I think Rayn didn't launch the nuke. What makes my analysis wrong?
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 09 2013 13:35 GMT
#1689
On July 09 2013 22:10 jampidampi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.

Here's my new thought process.

Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.

stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?

Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.

rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.

If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum?

He has a post reasoning why the nuke is from scum:
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 07 2013 18:31 geript wrote:
@rayn... was that you?

No it was not me.

I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so.

Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me.


Town is not going to willy nilly claim nukes on the first day. If we all claimed we could nuke how would that tell us who nuked MZ? We can't verify anything that quickly in the game and Scum may also have nukes. That explanation is not a strong argument at all.

Also we have to be aware of a fallacy here. If MZ is Town and he was nuked, and no one claims we are assuming it came from Scum. It could come from a townie who did not want to fess up. It could have come from 3rd party who isn't claiming shit. We are assuming that not claiming = Scum motivation. rayne claims it at the end of the day, and thus should be considered Town for fessing up to a legit nuke that he came up with an explanation for ahead of time. If not, he was just setting up a gambit to catch scum. That is extremely convenient wouldn't you say so?

On July 09 2013 22:11 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 21:55 Ace wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:43 Xatalos wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:29 Ace wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:25 Xatalos wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:19 Ace wrote:
How is it wrong? Be objective here.

There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.

MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.

I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.

Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless.


So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all.


Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now.


Explain why:
1) scum rayn would stealth nuke Meapak (instead of his eternal enemy Chezinu), base his townread on Meapak (at least partly) on his own lie, then be happy to redirect the nuke to NG
2) reveal all this quite a bit later with absolutely zero reason to do that and put himself under pressure
3) gather reactions without caring for his own safety and then reveal this plan

No matter how I look at it, I see no reason for scum rayn to do all this.



1.) why wouldn't he stealth nuke someone that is probably Town? durr? If he and Chezinu are scum buddies together then doesn't it make sense for him not to nuke him? If rayne's nukes can only be activated by stealth then this is moot as he would never even do so. If you honestly believe rayne has the capability to nuke another player and is Town - then why not nuke Chezinu?

2.) I don't think he actually thought it through well enough or he really believed he could get away with it. Again, MZ was the one who called him out on this. Unless you have a problem with MZ's post, then I don't see why you are over thinking this. Notice that even after he claimed he wasn't under any pressure. So he could very well have been correct in thinking he was safe on it.

3.) I don't understand where this is going. If you are assuming that only Town players will act bold you are acting under a false premise.


Here's my thing: Why is the DI/ON lynch not a major deal to you? That was a last minute wagon flip that resulted in a townie lynch. The guy who was going to be lynched got away with a scant post in his defense and disappeared. ON put up a defense and votes weren't moved off of him. You don't see a problem here?


I agree with geript's reasoning that the DI wagon went too smoothly without disagreement (only geript opposed it until austinmcc finally made his case, and DI had like 10+ votes at that point?). That means DI is probably town. If that is true, then there's literally zero reason for scum rayn to change the lynch from town to town. Even if DI were scum, you have zero reason to pursue rayn until 1) DI has flipped red and 2) you explain why rayn is more scummy for that than me or austin who were more strongly pursuing ON. It's just senseless all around.

1) I do not believe rayn has the capacity to launch a nuke. In that case, he would have surely launched it at Chezinu regardless of his alignnment (even as scum it would be stupid to launch at someone else and then claim a bit later).
2) Scum do not act rashly or carelessly, they are careful and serious. This is everything but careful and very risky for little if any gain (as scum). See the point?
3) See above.


Ok I'm going to put myself in your shoes. I definitely believe that sometimes if a wagon is going too smoothly unopposed, it may be a Town lynch. So there were definitely legit pro-town motives for stopping the wagon. However, there also exists scum motives for stopping it if DI is Scum. Of course we do not know what his alignment is so both happen to coincide. Here is my disagreement with "Di is probably Town": He told us he would be lurking at the start of the game and peaced out. Right before his lynch, he shows up to defend himself, people are easily convinced and we end up lynching ON. My problem here is that ON also posted a credible defense, but votes still piled on to him. Look at the voting lists for DI vs ON. Lots of those people never even voted for DI. If DI is Scum and his buddies held off long enough then when they appear to vote ON they don't look bad for not vote switching on to an innocent lynch. They just happened to be convinced by austin's case and voted.

Now back to this: if you believe that rayne is scum and DI is town then why wouldn't he help change the vote? If that is thread sentiment he still appears to be Town. If neither of his scum buddies are up for vote then why does it matter? I think you have this notion that all scum play the same way and that assumption is making you think rayne must be Town. For the last time, since I've answered this so much: I pursued rayne because of MZ's post. I'm not going to throw suspicion on several people, especially at night. That accomplishes nothing. Also stop assuming I don't have suspicions anywhere else.

1.) If you do not believe rayne has the capacity to launch nukes then what do you think of MZ's post? You must be believing rayne had this gambit setup well ahead of time then correct? If he is Scum and Chez is scum then he isn't going to launch no matter what. He could have easily felt no one would go back and read early day 1. No one except MZ went back to do so. He is rightly justified in making that play then.

2.) That is a false assumption. I don't think you can even get half the forum to agree with you on that. You are flat out wrong.



Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
July 09 2013 13:36 GMT
#1690
1. We don't know how all the specific nukes are required to be launched. I highly doubt all require or trigger off of ##nuke.
2. Rayn does this type of thing as town.
3. Because he wants peoples opinions before the silent nuke gets fired because everyone will be like "Oh silent nuke. Dude must be town."
4. The fact that Rayn notes that he was being setup himself, honestly just seals the deal for me. It's a classic overreaction in that the goes to the next progression but without real follow up once the matter dies.

Quite frankly, Rayn is a "do-er" type of person not a "thinker" like me. You give me a nuke and it will likely end up never being fired (unless deconduo joins the game, then that shit gets fired super fast [j/k{only kinda j/k}]). Rayn would absolutely pull something like this.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
July 09 2013 13:44 GMT
#1691
On July 09 2013 22:11 Xatalos wrote:
1) I do not believe rayn has the capacity to launch a nuke. In that case, he would have surely launched it at Chezinu regardless of his alignnment (even as scum it would be stupid to launch at someone else and then claim a bit later).
2) Scum do not act rashly or carelessly, they are careful and serious. This is everything but careful and very risky for little if any gain (as scum). See the point?
3) See above.

We just got out of PTP. I will refute point 2 quite simply. When I ##Mortal Combat Kitaman27 it was completely on whim. It felt like the right play at the time so I just did it. I knew that people wanted him out of the way. I knew that he wasn't scum. I knew that I was catching flak for not voting for austin at the end of day 1 when I had the runs something fierce and just voted on who I thought would be the next target down the line. Was it rash? Yes. Was it well thought out? No. Had I thought about it, I would've likely kept it on hand for later use. Only by sheer unmitigated luck did that shot end up being highly useful as his extra KP was exceptionally important that game. So yes, Scum do thinks rashly and carelessly too.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 09 2013 13:47 GMT
#1692
On July 09 2013 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
Because once he claimed, and there was no counterclaim, then obviously it came from scum. Ace how are you not seeing this??



If rayne is scum and the nuke was launched from his team, then the nuke came from Scum. It still does not make rayne Town.

On July 09 2013 22:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 21:38 Ace wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
rofl Ace. So as scum i claimed a nuke i did not need to claim when i'm under zero pressure. I also swung the lynch fron DI to ON. Makes no sense from town point of view considering that i have called DI town and ON scum the whole game. Of course it does not make sense, town!rayn could have done nothing but to lynch Dandel, his town read, obviously. Also it was certainly rayn who swung the lynch, actually rayn is posting via Austin about all this stuff why ON is scum, right?


So what if you're under 0 pressure? We've seen scum make plays without pressure multiple times. That isn't a legit excuse. MZ was the one who went back and caught you in a lie. You somehow knew MZ was going to catch you ahead of time and set this all up with a fakeclaim of the nuke, to then say it was a gamble all this time? right.



What was the lie MZ caught me in?


You claimed to nuke MZ out of revenge. MZ fake nuked you here:

On July 07 2013 07:13 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2013 07:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yo, can anyone see why geript is scum?
Discussing stuff with Xata is useless, he is dead.

##Nuke: raynpelikoneet

There so are you.


The nuke launched at MZ appears here:

On July 07 2013 18:28 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED

[image loading]
A nuke has been spotted heading towards Meapak_Ziphh.


You were around and the nuke goes off 11 hours later. You couldn't have been nuking him in revenge.

On July 09 2013 22:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.

Here's my new thought process.

Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.

stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?

Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.

rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.

If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum?

You can't possibly be this stupid. If the nuke was from a townie they would have CC'd me. That was another reason fopr fakeclaiming the nuke. It's sure from scum now.


Why would a townie cc you on a nuke heading to MZ?? If they didn't fess up the first time you asked, then why would you think that would happen? If scum launched the nuke they can also CC you and still appear to be Town. That is the only requirement right? Your fallacy is exposed here. That's just nonsense.

Even if we take it that the nuke came from scum, that does not mean YOU are not scum.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 09 2013 13:50 GMT
#1693
On July 09 2013 22:35 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:10 jampidampi wrote:
On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.

Here's my new thought process.

Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.

stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?

Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.

rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.

If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum?

He has a post reasoning why the nuke is from scum:
On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 07 2013 18:31 geript wrote:
@rayn... was that you?

No it was not me.

I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so.

Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me.


Town is not going to willy nilly claim nukes on the first day. If we all claimed we could nuke how would that tell us who nuked MZ? We can't verify anything that quickly in the game and Scum may also have nukes. That explanation is not a strong argument at all.

Also we have to be aware of a fallacy here. If MZ is Town and he was nuked, and no one claims we are assuming it came from Scum. It could come from a townie who did not want to fess up. It could have come from 3rd party who isn't claiming shit. We are assuming that not claiming = Scum motivation. rayne claims it at the end of the day, and thus should be considered Town for fessing up to a legit nuke that he came up with an explanation for ahead of time. If not, he was just setting up a gambit to catch scum. That is extremely convenient wouldn't you say so?

Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:11 Xatalos wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:55 Ace wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:43 Xatalos wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:29 Ace wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:25 Xatalos wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:19 Ace wrote:
How is it wrong? Be objective here.

There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.

MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.

I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.

Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless.


So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all.


Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now.


Explain why:
1) scum rayn would stealth nuke Meapak (instead of his eternal enemy Chezinu), base his townread on Meapak (at least partly) on his own lie, then be happy to redirect the nuke to NG
2) reveal all this quite a bit later with absolutely zero reason to do that and put himself under pressure
3) gather reactions without caring for his own safety and then reveal this plan

No matter how I look at it, I see no reason for scum rayn to do all this.



1.) why wouldn't he stealth nuke someone that is probably Town? durr? If he and Chezinu are scum buddies together then doesn't it make sense for him not to nuke him? If rayne's nukes can only be activated by stealth then this is moot as he would never even do so. If you honestly believe rayne has the capability to nuke another player and is Town - then why not nuke Chezinu?

2.) I don't think he actually thought it through well enough or he really believed he could get away with it. Again, MZ was the one who called him out on this. Unless you have a problem with MZ's post, then I don't see why you are over thinking this. Notice that even after he claimed he wasn't under any pressure. So he could very well have been correct in thinking he was safe on it.

3.) I don't understand where this is going. If you are assuming that only Town players will act bold you are acting under a false premise.


Here's my thing: Why is the DI/ON lynch not a major deal to you? That was a last minute wagon flip that resulted in a townie lynch. The guy who was going to be lynched got away with a scant post in his defense and disappeared. ON put up a defense and votes weren't moved off of him. You don't see a problem here?


I agree with geript's reasoning that the DI wagon went too smoothly without disagreement (only geript opposed it until austinmcc finally made his case, and DI had like 10+ votes at that point?). That means DI is probably town. If that is true, then there's literally zero reason for scum rayn to change the lynch from town to town. Even if DI were scum, you have zero reason to pursue rayn until 1) DI has flipped red and 2) you explain why rayn is more scummy for that than me or austin who were more strongly pursuing ON. It's just senseless all around.

1) I do not believe rayn has the capacity to launch a nuke. In that case, he would have surely launched it at Chezinu regardless of his alignnment (even as scum it would be stupid to launch at someone else and then claim a bit later).
2) Scum do not act rashly or carelessly, they are careful and serious. This is everything but careful and very risky for little if any gain (as scum). See the point?
3) See above.


Ok I'm going to put myself in your shoes. I definitely believe that sometimes if a wagon is going too smoothly unopposed, it may be a Town lynch. So there were definitely legit pro-town motives for stopping the wagon. However, there also exists scum motives for stopping it if DI is Scum. Of course we do not know what his alignment is so both happen to coincide. Here is my disagreement with "Di is probably Town": He told us he would be lurking at the start of the game and peaced out. Right before his lynch, he shows up to defend himself, people are easily convinced and we end up lynching ON. My problem here is that ON also posted a credible defense, but votes still piled on to him. Look at the voting lists for DI vs ON. Lots of those people never even voted for DI. If DI is Scum and his buddies held off long enough then when they appear to vote ON they don't look bad for not vote switching on to an innocent lynch. They just happened to be convinced by austin's case and voted.

Now back to this: if you believe that rayne is scum and DI is town then why wouldn't he help change the vote? If that is thread sentiment he still appears to be Town. If neither of his scum buddies are up for vote then why does it matter? I think you have this notion that all scum play the same way and that assumption is making you think rayne must be Town. For the last time, since I've answered this so much: I pursued rayne because of MZ's post. I'm not going to throw suspicion on several people, especially at night. That accomplishes nothing. Also stop assuming I don't have suspicions anywhere else.

1.) If you do not believe rayne has the capacity to launch nukes then what do you think of MZ's post? You must be believing rayne had this gambit setup well ahead of time then correct? If he is Scum and Chez is scum then he isn't going to launch no matter what. He could have easily felt no one would go back and read early day 1. No one except MZ went back to do so. He is rightly justified in making that play then.

2.) That is a false assumption. I don't think you can even get half the forum to agree with you on that. You are flat out wrong.



I don't believe for a second that this "big play" was rayn's backup plan. There's no way he thought the claim was going to be a resounding success in the first place (too many contradictions), and even if he basically planned on getting towncred with this "big play" later on as scum... No, that's just too convoluted, risky and unnecessary. I'm 99% sure of that. The remaining 1% is wild WIFOM.

DI's lackluster defense had nothing to do with him being saved. Neither did ON's lackluster defense do anything for him, in fact it made me more suspicious. It was all because of austin's case and all the townish people (me, rayn etc.) agreeing with it. You're just wrong again.

I'm not saying that all scum everywhere are careful or that scum would never unnecessarily involve themselves in major happenings. Anything is possible. But it's way more likely for town to be careless and involved in risky business than for scum to do something similar.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 09 2013 13:51 GMT
#1694
w/e, stick your opinion Xatalos. There's nothing left for us to talk about.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
July 09 2013 13:52 GMT
#1695
So Ace, other than rayn, who else do you think is scum?
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 09 2013 13:56 GMT
#1696
Dandel. I'm not sure about my other scum reads yet, and I'd rather take care off this business first.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 09 2013 14:00 GMT
#1697
Why don't I ever get KPs? :/
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
July 09 2013 14:03 GMT
#1698
On July 09 2013 23:00 Xatalos wrote:
Why don't I ever get KPs? :/

LOL. I never get KP either Even when I'm scum.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
July 09 2013 14:04 GMT
#1699
On July 09 2013 22:47 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
Because once he claimed, and there was no counterclaim, then obviously it came from scum. Ace how are you not seeing this??



If rayne is scum and the nuke was launched from his team, then the nuke came from Scum. It still does not make rayne Town.

Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:38 Ace wrote:
On July 09 2013 21:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
rofl Ace. So as scum i claimed a nuke i did not need to claim when i'm under zero pressure. I also swung the lynch fron DI to ON. Makes no sense from town point of view considering that i have called DI town and ON scum the whole game. Of course it does not make sense, town!rayn could have done nothing but to lynch Dandel, his town read, obviously. Also it was certainly rayn who swung the lynch, actually rayn is posting via Austin about all this stuff why ON is scum, right?


So what if you're under 0 pressure? We've seen scum make plays without pressure multiple times. That isn't a legit excuse. MZ was the one who went back and caught you in a lie. You somehow knew MZ was going to catch you ahead of time and set this all up with a fakeclaim of the nuke, to then say it was a gamble all this time? right.



What was the lie MZ caught me in?


You claimed to nuke MZ out of revenge. MZ fake nuked you here:

Show nested quote +
On July 07 2013 07:13 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
On July 07 2013 07:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yo, can anyone see why geript is scum?
Discussing stuff with Xata is useless, he is dead.

##Nuke: raynpelikoneet

There so are you.


The nuke launched at MZ appears here:

Show nested quote +
On July 07 2013 18:28 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED

[image loading]
A nuke has been spotted heading towards Meapak_Ziphh.


You were around and the nuke goes off 11 hours later. You couldn't have been nuking him in revenge.

Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.

Here's my new thought process.

Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.

stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?

Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.

rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.

If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum?

You can't possibly be this stupid. If the nuke was from a townie they would have CC'd me. That was another reason fopr fakeclaiming the nuke. It's sure from scum now.


Why would a townie cc you on a nuke heading to MZ?? If they didn't fess up the first time you asked, then why would you think that would happen? If scum launched the nuke they can also CC you and still appear to be Town. That is the only requirement right? Your fallacy is exposed here. That's just nonsense.

Even if we take it that the nuke came from scum, that does not mean YOU are not scum.

So your thought process is that i made a backup plan for a plan that i did not have to pull off in the first place. How does that make sense?
Like, if i had not claimed to fire that nuke there is no lie. When i claimed i created a lie, and then i made a back up plan for the lie i purposely and unnecessarily created myself as mafia.

Do you see how scummy you sound. You messed up because you couldn't react accorignly to a situation where a townie claimed a nuke your team fired, and you are scum.

I will explain this more in detail tonight. Now i gotta head back to work.
table for two on a tv tray
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 09 2013 14:07 GMT
#1700
On July 09 2013 22:44 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 22:11 Xatalos wrote:
1) I do not believe rayn has the capacity to launch a nuke. In that case, he would have surely launched it at Chezinu regardless of his alignnment (even as scum it would be stupid to launch at someone else and then claim a bit later).
2) Scum do not act rashly or carelessly, they are careful and serious. This is everything but careful and very risky for little if any gain (as scum). See the point?
3) See above.

We just got out of PTP. I will refute point 2 quite simply. When I ##Mortal Combat Kitaman27 it was completely on whim. It felt like the right play at the time so I just did it. I knew that people wanted him out of the way. I knew that he wasn't scum. I knew that I was catching flak for not voting for austin at the end of day 1 when I had the runs something fierce and just voted on who I thought would be the next target down the line. Was it rash? Yes. Was it well thought out? No. Had I thought about it, I would've likely kept it on hand for later use. Only by sheer unmitigated luck did that shot end up being highly useful as his extra KP was exceptionally important that game. So yes, Scum do thinks rashly and carelessly too.


I didn't say that scum never act carelessly. That's just one example from a game where the scumteam was overall very careful and not involved in noticeable incidents (except the Mortal Kombat and austin at endgame, but then he had already scumclaimed). And I have never been rash as scum, nor anyone in my teams (maybe excluding Acro's fakeclaim in GoT or jaybrundage's shenanigans in Dessert Mini). Point is, it's not common compared to townish rashness.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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