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On June 18 2013 11:51 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2013 11:42 mkfuba07 wrote:On June 18 2013 10:38 WaveofShadow wrote:
Fuck my brain.
I know I'm like...ALWAYS wrong with my conspiracy theory stuff, but I'm almost certain now scum has withheld a shot at some point.
If it was the shot on N3 then it means both Fuba and Kita are likely scum, and would fit with the idea that Ace sacced himself because he had a capable scumteam and the 'confirmed town' status that Ace gave to fuba before he decided to essentially off himself.
It is becoming increasingly apparent to me that this is one of those games where the scumteam is blending incredibly well, tryharding like a boss (increasingly common in games I've been in lately), and letting bad townies be bad.
In this case 2 scum among Vivax/kita/fuba. And ugh... I absolutely love to fucking repeat myself, but ace had NOTHING to do with my "confirmed town" status. Him saying it doesn't mean that it wasn't true. I really don't see how this is in ANY WAY difficult to understand, because it's really, really simple. Townie does something. EVERYONE knows it likely makes him confirmed town. Scum points it out verbally in the thread. THIS HAS NO EFFECT ON THE ORIGINAL ACTION. So ignore that then. Ignore anything I've mentioned where it says 'such and such fits.' Does my thinking have any merit?
Just to make sure, are you asking about whether or not I think someone highly considered to be town is actually scum? Or are you asking if I think scum withheld kp for a night? I'll respond to it in a post before the daypost, but I want to be sure to answer the right question.
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Would you be able to direct me to the best case against vivax please? Or just quickly outline it, as I'm going to go through his filter soon? I still think it's unlikely for him to give sentinel a town check when he could have given it to practically anyone.
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On June 19 2013 02:33 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2013 02:23 mkfuba07 wrote:
Would you be able to direct me to the best case against vivax please? Or just quickly outline it, as I'm going to go through his filter soon? I still think it's unlikely for him to give sentinel a town check when he could have given it to practically anyone. Well he could only really check Sent or prpl and get away with it and both would come up town. It's not like a town check on you or Wave would make much sense from his perspective. I suppose he could have hidden the cop, but a green check on a player he had already wrote a case as being town makes him look good. It's not like the green check saved a mislynch -_- I'll summarize my earlier case tonight.
Why could he only have given sent or prplhz a town check? He could call anyone that isn't his scumpartner town and be perfectly safe.
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On June 19 2013 03:36 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2013 03:34 kitaman27 wrote:On June 19 2013 03:29 VayneAuthority wrote:
I mean I feel like kita has to be town Ruh roh. Whenever people start posting that at night, I find myself dead a few hours later. you seem to be the only other person on the same wavelength as me but rayn flipped scum so i guess that doesn't matter much! the fact that fuba thinks getting a greencheck of sentinel is not scummy when it is pretty much the only option he had besides green check on prp, is pretty puzzling. Check anyone else and people will wonder why, put a red check on either of them and you are dead the next day. A green check on them is actually perfectly normal for either alignment.
The way you phrased this bothers me to no end, as you imply that vivax getting a greencheck on sentinel is scummy, and then say that a greencheck is perfectly normal as either alignment. That makes it inherently not scummy.
In any case, we'll have to agree to disagree. If I have the cop role for a night, I'm doing what I want with it. I know that without my flip, the only person who will fully (as fully as possible, I should say) believe it is me. If I want to confirm one of my townreads for myself, I will. If I want to make sure that one of my best townreads isn't pulling the wool over our eyes, I will. It's absolutely not unreasonable to believe he could have given a green check to anyone in the game, and that is why I don't see it likely that scum vivax decided to give a towncheck to one of the players most likely to be mislynched.
More to come later.
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So I was gonna save this for later, but it turns out I might not be around. I feel alright posting this now because if scum killed me they'd actually be doing town a favor.
In response to WoS's question, I think that scumteam (one including 2 of me/kita/vivax) has absolutely 0 merit, but I don't think it's unreasonable for you to have believed it to be viable. I was even worrying about WoS messing with us, but after further consideration of the night actions, I've narrowed the field down considerably. The problem being, I have all of this "guaranteed" information that no one else in the game but scum also has. I'll spell it out the way I see it, and you'll have to either accept it or tell me why I'm scum.
First of all, I know that I was shot N4. This means that the veteran role was around this entire time (scum didn't kill it off on their own), and that they wanted me dead for some reason (which I can't really fathom, perhaps trying to limit the "confirmed" pool as much as possible while avoiding the doc?). N3, WoS blocked Sentinel, and I saved kita. We know for a fact that the shot didn't come from sentinel, so my save blocked a KP. It's possible that scum withheld the KP to wifom us, but I don't think it's likely for reasons similar to what kita mentioned. Scum would have basically been relying on the town doc to save one of them or town roleblocker to block town. They'd be giving up a KP for the sake of potential wifom, and that doesn't make sense. The only possibility I could see this being believable is if they killed off the veteran role with the KP, but they didn't, because I got the role the next day. Now onto N2. First of all, scum had veteran N2. We all know this to be fact. If they withheld the KP, then they could have easily used it to burn the veteran role. They didn't burn the vet, so I HIGHLY doubt that they withheld KP (this additionally factors into my thoughts concerning held KP on N3). Then, given that I have a town read on Vivax, that confirms WoS and Vayne for me.
The remaining players are Stutters, jaybrundage, and layabout. I don't think it's Stutters, his reaction to rayn calling his case shit was really geniune from my pov. He thought it was completely ridiculous, and I think scum would have behaved more levelheadedly if they were interacting like this. I don't think that scum stutters sees scum rayn say something like that and responds the way he did.
This leaves jaybrundage and layabout as the final scum. Looking through their filters, it fits. Read N2, and see Ace and layabout trying to convince the town to give jay the OK to cop check Ace that night. Notice that they're on opposite sides of the argument on almost every issue (even when voting, they're on different people at the end of every night with the exception of sentinel). Watch layabout adamantly insist that the only way to be sure we're avoiding another mislynch is to cop check Ace, then turns around and tells Ace that there was strong scum motivation to what he did (WoS points this out at the time, but I didn't pick up on it). See how jay has a scumread on layabout when the lynches are set, but is freed of the responsibility of pushing that lynch after he gets a greencheck on him.
I'm sure there's a better method of writing a case for this, but I don't really have the time at the moment, and ultimately it only really clicked after I went back again and reread the game, so I suggest everyone do that (particularly D2/N2/D3). In any case, like Vayne I'd advocate for a check on jay (or layabout), as well as a block on either of those. Do what you want, though. They're your power roles, and I'm pretty much pushing for these two regardless of cop checks (roleblock would probably dissuade me, depending on the roleblocker). However, and this may be strange, I would not recommend saving me as doc tonight. Either I'm here in the morning and you have me and my scumreads, or you don't have me but you have confirmation that I've been telling the truth about everything (along with my scumreads).
Ugh, gotta go. Probably left something out, but that's the gist of it.
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Wow...
I roleblocked layabout.
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Oh god, what the hell was wrong with me yesterday. If I don't think scum withheld kp, then either vayne or vivax is scum, right?
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No, I'm being dumb now too... I've been spending too much time thinking about this. Going all loopy.
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On June 20 2013 02:41 VayneAuthority wrote:
so right now im looking at vivax and stutters pretty much
on one hand we have a player that usually puts in a lot of work that has been sort of middle of the line this entire game. A lot of suspicious night action correlations and the fact that he's still alive at this point in the game all ring alarm bells. He would also confirm me as town if he by some chance showed up town so that's an added bonus. I have no real case on him besides that but feel he is a good lynch overall.
On the other hand we have a player that started out posting like crazy which is odd for him, and he's gone on the weekends fair enough but he's also been gone on weekdays. The only time he has popped in the thread recently is to post one liner questions asking what he is doing wrong in a defensive manner as if trying to find out how he can look more town/correct his play in future games or something. His filter is also off putting at best, his vote on rayn is very last second and without much thought put into it, he has a few strange interactions with Ace and most of his early scumreads/people bothering him are either still alive or have been already mislynched.
I'd like to hear people's thoughts on these two lynches.
If vivax flips town, who do you think is scum?
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On June 20 2013 03:29 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 01:54 mkfuba07 wrote:
Oh god, what the hell was wrong with me yesterday. If I don't think scum withheld kp, then either vayne or vivax is scum, right? I'm curious what do you think about WoS assertion. He was talking about scum faking losing a KP and that some of our blue actions maybe be faked for town cred. His assertion was that we should start looking into more "confirmed town" by blue role town. So that scum can get away scot free. It would also make sense given how ace would feel fine dying if scum were in a great place. Tho not entirely sure why he made the trade regardless.
The difficulty for me when it came to that question was that the only people I considered "confirmed town" were myself, kita, and to some extent WoS (though I certainly had a constant nagging feeling that he might have played us somehow). So if he was asking me if scum might have been playing us like this, the only implication in my mind is myself (not scum, but that's what scum would say XD) or kita, who would have had to withhold KP on the offchance that the doctor would protect him, in an effort to confirm himself town. Neither of these are correct.
My problem is, given the night actions as they are, if we lynch vivax and he's town, then that means that vayne and stutters are most likely scum. That's at odds with my belief that scum didn't withhold kp at night. So the options are vivax is scum, there was a lie/godfather somewhere in you/layabout, or scum withheld kp N2 to make vayne look like confirmed town without then using that held kp to burn the vet role (or possibly some combination of the last two).
Oh wow, just realized that if scum used the kp to burn the vet, then anyone who later used it would be implicated as scum (if it became known that they used a KP in this way), and if they didn't use it then they would reveal that Ace shot himself to burn the kp. That would ultimately make it a worthless action, right?
Given this, I'd much rather lynch vayne than vivax. His major contributions this game have been confusing logic, misrepresentations of things others have said, and pushing for a Vivax lynch which would supposedly confirm him town if vivax flips town, when I see a town vivax as doing almost the exact opposite. I also just went back to check, and the night after the sentinel lynch, after I kept questioning vayne about him calling sentinel "obviously town" (questions that he decided to stop answering), was the night I got shot. The major thing holding back my voting for him was the belief that vivax was town, and scum wouldn't just not use one of their KP, but this absolutely makes sense to me now.
The fact that vayne's been trying to make it seem like I've been setting up a mislynch on him for the last few days was just irritating and overly defensive when I thought he was town. But it's clear now that he was accusing me of that just so he could do the very same thing now. He preempts every possible action that could have been taken against him, because he knows that eventually they'll be coming. He consistently considers more members of a scumteam than are even possible, and now appears to be appealing to the towniness in his definite scumread (stutters) to declare vivax and jay as another definite team. Appealing to the *towniness* of *scum*. Doesn't make sense.
Oh, and why did Ace sacrifice himself like this when it made no sense to do so? So it would look absolutely insane to consider that they would give up such a strong scum player for one extra KP, and then just not use it.
##Vote: VayneAuthority
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On June 20 2013 04:40 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 04:37 VayneAuthority wrote:On June 20 2013 04:15 kitaman27 wrote:
Vayne could you point me to what makes jay scum outside his suspicions of you? Right now it looks like an omgus. go back into my filter, I already said exactly what would happen. Jay or fuba wanted to put their suspicion on me yesterday but were content to stay on prphlz to setup my mislynch for today. That's not a very good reason.
It's actually a godawful reason, as it's exactly what vayne himself did. He's also implicating jay AND myself, when he already thinks vivax AND stutters are scum.
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On June 20 2013 04:57 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 04:45 mkfuba07 wrote:On June 20 2013 03:29 jaybrundage wrote:On June 20 2013 01:54 mkfuba07 wrote:
Oh god, what the hell was wrong with me yesterday. If I don't think scum withheld kp, then either vayne or vivax is scum, right? I'm curious what do you think about WoS assertion. He was talking about scum faking losing a KP and that some of our blue actions maybe be faked for town cred. His assertion was that we should start looking into more "confirmed town" by blue role town. So that scum can get away scot free. It would also make sense given how ace would feel fine dying if scum were in a great place. Tho not entirely sure why he made the trade regardless. The difficulty for me when it came to that question was that the only people I considered "confirmed town" were myself, kita, and to some extent WoS (though I certainly had a constant nagging feeling that he might have played us somehow). So if he was asking me if scum might have been playing us like this, the only implication in my mind is myself (not scum, but that's what scum would say XD) or kita, who would have had to withhold KP on the offchance that the doctor would protect him, in an effort to confirm himself town. Neither of these are correct. My problem is, given the night actions as they are, if we lynch vivax and he's town, then that means that vayne and stutters are most likely scum. That's at odds with my belief that scum didn't withhold kp at night. So the options are vivax is scum, there was a lie/godfather somewhere in you/layabout, or scum withheld kp N2 to make vayne look like confirmed town without then using that held kp to burn the vet role (or possibly some combination of the last two). Oh wow, just realized that if scum used the kp to burn the vet, then anyone who later used it would be implicated as scum (if it became known that they used a KP in this way), and if they didn't use it then they would reveal that Ace shot himself to burn the kp. That would ultimately make it a worthless action, right? Given this, I'd much rather lynch vayne than vivax. His major contributions this game have been confusing logic, misrepresentations of things others have said, and pushing for a Vivax lynch which would supposedly confirm him town if vivax flips town, when I see a town vivax as doing almost the exact opposite. I also just went back to check, and the night after the sentinel lynch, after I kept questioning vayne about him calling sentinel "obviously town" (questions that he decided to stop answering), was the night I got shot. The major thing holding back my voting for him was the belief that vivax was town, and scum wouldn't just not use one of their KP, but this absolutely makes sense to me now. The fact that vayne's been trying to make it seem like I've been setting up a mislynch on him for the last few days was just irritating and overly defensive when I thought he was town. But it's clear now that he was accusing me of that just so he could do the very same thing now. He preempts every possible action that could have been taken against him, because he knows that eventually they'll be coming. He consistently considers more members of a scumteam than are even possible, and now appears to be appealing to the towniness in his definite scumread (stutters) to declare vivax and jay as another definite team. Appealing to the *towniness* of *scum*. Doesn't make sense. Oh, and why did Ace sacrifice himself like this when it made no sense to do so? So it would look absolutely insane to consider that they would give up such a strong scum player for one extra KP, and then just not use it. ##Vote: VayneAuthority you realize vivax flipping green means his KP wasn't roleblocked by prphlz and that I did indeed save WoS that day? The fact that you have failed to understand such simple things the entire game is at the least, alarming. I don't know if you are a complete dolt or just scum though.
No, vivax flipping green means many things. It means he wasn't scum. It means his cop check is as trusted as can be with a roaming miller/godfather about. It means jay is likely town, and in turn layabout is likely town. It means that the only two scum left at that point are you and stutters. And this is nearly impossible if we assume (like I had been) that scum didn't hold their KP.
You're appealing to the simple when it doesn't make sense to be doing so. The simple explanation is next to impossible. You also completely ignored the substance of the case and are focusing entirely on the setup-based possibility of you being scum while ignoring the scummy things that I claim you have done. Then you resort to ad hominem attacks.
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I admit that withholding would be dumb when you could double stack. What would probably make sense is them giving one kp to one person, one kp to another, and then both going for the same guy. This guarantees one kill, one "block" and their plan is a success.
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This would guarantee exactly one nk, regardless of who was roleblocker.
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Updated and compiled N2 scum theory v.2.0.0.1:
Night two, scum get doc and veteran (possibly cop, who knows). They do not have roleblocker (prplhz). They have two people double stack JDD, and in this way guarantee that exactly one person dies that night regardless of who is roleblocked. This sets up a situation where there's exactly one kp missing, and by lynching vivax vayne becomes confirmed town.
So... lynch Vayne.
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On June 20 2013 09:16 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2013 09:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Or justify your vote by anything other than night action speculation I don't really need to justify anything, his play is not indicative of town and I wouldn't miss him if he was town. He honestly thinks 1. that JJD was doublestacked or some bullshit 2. just read his latest post, how does he come to the conclusion from that to lynch me? LOL?
I came to that conclusion because the only reason I wasn't voting for you was because it didn't make sense for scum to withhold their kp. I think vivax is town. I think you are scummy. The only reason I took you off the list is because I couldn't figure out how the night actions resolved N2 without you being confirmed town. This makes perfect sense, though. It explains the missing KP, it explains why you're so obsessed with getting vivax lynched, it explains why I've found fault with so many of your posts this game. It literally explains every question I had regarding the night actions N2.
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I guess lynch vivax if you want. I've realized my night action explanation assumes vivax flips town. The conflict, therefore, may be with my assumption and not evidence of some foul play. But neither town nor scum vivax confirm vayne as town. Particularly town vivax, as the resolution of the N2 actions is in conflict with that of night actions as a whole.
The thing is, it certainly feels to me as though vayne's goal, since at least day 3, was lynching vivax in order to confirm himself. Not lynching scum, but for the information. Given that this is the case, why hasn't sentinel's lynch already confirmed me and kita? It's literally the exact same situation (vivax = sentinel, vayne = me, WoS = kita). Based on that, I should be as confirmed as he expects to be from a vivax lynch, but I'm not. His motivation for lynching vivax isn't even valid in his own eyes. How is this not scummy?
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On June 20 2013 21:32 Vivax wrote:These are vayne's reasons for lynching me: Show nested quote +on one hand we have a player that usually puts in a lot of work that has been sort of middle of the line this entire game. A lot of suspicious night action correlations and the fact that he's still alive at this point in the game all ring alarm bells. He would also confirm me as town if he by some chance showed up town so that's an added bonus. I have no real case on him besides that but feel he is a good lynch overall. A lot of suspicious night actions? Tell me about all of them. I'm still alive? Sorry bro, but so is every other townie in the game. I don't recall being high priority target for scum in most of my games, and given how few time I have to put into this one, I'm even lesser. The hard-on for confirmation is also inconsistent, as pointed out by fuba. Speaking of hard-ons, I'd like to know from fuba why he seems so sure about me being town. That doesn't seem to be something that obvious to most of the others. Is it just for my cop check on Sent?
I can't say why I think you're town except for the cop check. If I had to guess why I feel so sure, I'd say it's because I think vayne is scum, so I'm expecting you to flip town so as to "confirm" him. You being town is something I believe scum vayne has been counting on. You as scum doesn't really make sense if vayne is scum.
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Been doing some more thinking. To be clear, these are regarding scum potential, not a player's scumminess.
Scenario 1: We lynch Vayne, he flips scum. I can't draw any definitive information from this about Vivax. If there were no scum shenanigans, then Vivax is scum, and he was bussed pretty hard by Vayne (in the sense that vayne apparently wanted him lynched, not that vayne was really an impetus to the lynch). If scum shenanigans occurred in order to make Vayne "guaranteed town", then we know that scum couldn't control who was roleblocked because prplhz had that role. This means that Vivax could still be scum.
Scenario 2: We lynch Vayne, he flips town. Pretty sure this guarantees I was wrong about both vayne and vivax and we lynch vivax the next day. I can't figure out shenanigans that scum could have pulled off to make both of them town in this situation.
Scenario 3: We lynch Vivax, he flips scum. I can't draw any definitive information from this about Vayne. Sans shenanigans he could be either town or scum claiming to have doc'd WoS. With shenanigans, the roleblock was in the hands of prplhz, so scum had no control over it. If both are scum in this situation, Vayne "bussed" vivax consistently, but not really all that strongly.
Scenario 4: We lynch Vivax, he flips town. This makes the most likely scumteam vayne and stutters based on cumulative night actions, which doesn't make sense given that town Vivax makes Vayne confirmed by N2 actions. This leads me to believe either shenanigans occurred and vayne is scum, or there is a lie/GF somewhere in jay/layabout.
Based on these, I'm reasonably sure that at least one of the two is scum (barring jay just so happening to get GF). What would help me most is making me understand why my shenanigans are unreasonable (as people seem to believe). Based on play alone, I'd go with vayne over vivax because I see this potential for scum to manipulate night actions N2. I still think it's possible and viable given the state of the scumteam at that point in the game (down their power role since the first day). It also fits into scenarios 1 and 3, possibly explains the discrepancy in scenario 4. Scenario 2 is just me being plain wrong. Without considering shenanigans, every scenario leads to scum vivax except for the one where he inherently flips town. I'd switch my vote if I was convinced of this unlikelihood.
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Just saw vivax's large post. Comments soon.
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EPT
