Smurf Mini Mafia - Page 3

Process of elimination.

Like I said earlier in the game and even earlier today, Based on who I think is likely to be town, scum must be within a small group of 3-4 players. JP's flip makes that group smaller and by extension makes everyone in the group look worse.

Really, you're grasping at straws so hard here. Yes, obviously their primary reads on DAY 1 were DrT. Almost everyone had that read aside from, primarily, JP and myself.

Also, no, it is NOT a weak scum play to kill someone who is "onto" you, particularly if it avoids other issues. Townies don't always go back and reread. I was the only person who reported on what I found in MSmith's filter after he died. How many times in endgame have you seen good townies come back and say "you should have looked in my filter after I died"? It happens all the time.

So if they were shooting purely based on analysis why did McCoy not get shot?

There are three reasons that could possibly be, and I'm betting on a combination of them. We can agree that good analysts are scary to scum, but we need to differentiate the shot here.

McCoy maybe would have been perceived more likely as being a protect target than MSmith. There's one reason.

The second reason (and just as plausible) is that McCoy's secondary reads were not as scary as MSmith's. Scum often shoot those who are on the correct track if they are the only ones they think have the potential of catching them.

Eccleston
Based on what I've read of Eccleston's posts I think he's probably the most likely to be town out of the entire lot. In fact, I think he's quite likely to be town. He's made very specific observations that are quite hard for scum to make. I do not, for example, think that the average TL scum player would say anything like these:



How often do scum reference posts and actually question the logic of someone else on such a specific level? Generally scum find it hard to fake the "figuring out" process because they've already been given the alignments of everyone in the game. It's almost impossible to fake this kind of specific questioning process-if questioning is faked by scum, it's usually more general or nebulous.



This post reflects Eccleston's initial thought process regarding my opinion of PT yesterday. What's interesting is not necessarily this post itself, because I think the average scum could probably reasonably fake something like this. What's most interesting are his followup posts that demonstrate that he was thinking about this. IMO most scum would not put in the effort to think about what another player has written and said about someone else because they don't have to-they don't know how to fake the process, and so they only show the results of that process. This is partly also, IMO, why scum are so reluctant to swap votes. It's hard for scum to realistically be able to fake a decision-making process when their ulterior goal is to blend in. Eccleston doesn't display any of those tendencies. He's almost certainly town IMO.

If anyone can find instances where I am wrong about what I've said above, I'd love to hear it. The only thing that could possibly be held against Eccleston, IMO, is his relatively low recent activity, but given the context of the game I do not think it is a point worthy of consideration unless his inactivity persists.