EPT[M][N] Les Mafia - Page 23
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 27 2013 01:27 s0Lstice wrote: Why not? Dandel claiming SK made sure we lynched scum and not the SK yesterday. We already talked about how the most optimal lynch for town yesterday was to off the SK, as it could get us to 5-4 with some luck. Now the best we can hope for is 4-3-1. BECAUSE HE CLAIMED NOT-TOWN WHEN BH FLIPPED WHICH WAS THE START OF THE NIGHT SK should have shot him. I JUST WROTE THIS. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
At this point it's totally apparent he's not town. Comprendo? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On a separate note, JK (should he exist) should try jailing offensively tonight | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
if mafia don't have to worry about town so much then they have more luxury to pursue other goals. your argument is that you're calling my arguments bad because Dandel's play made sense if there's an SK. Claiming mafia (to the SK) during the night doesn't make any sense from a mafia perspective, because you're painting a target on your back. So, the OP aside, it wasn't in any way unreasonable for me to speculate that mafia could have had 2 KP, given mafia could have lost a mafia for free last night because of Dandel outing himself as not-town at the start of the night. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 27 2013 01:47 DarthPunk wrote: this is fucking retarded because we have not made any read on a sk whatsoever. LIke there is no reason for scum to sac themselves. A more reasonable explanation is that he knew he was fucked from being so useless and tried to survive with his sk claim. This, there was literally nothing to lose for Dandel. There was a real possibility that town could have figured it was an ok idea to let the SK live, and we lynch someone else and hit town, when basically mafia have won at that stage. Given he was 100% being lynched at that point anyway, it was worth a try, because why not | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
because it seems apparent that he didn't think it was a particularly good idea for the SK to shoot at mafia last night, and the SK shot at town, so... | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
Mafia know who SK is because possibly mafia don't have a roleblocker, or if they did they didn't use it on GK. I think Stutters jailed GK. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 27 2013 07:51 VayneAuthority wrote: Due to his final post? I was thinking along the same lines, but more importantly I have been Yeah, and neither DP or I were roleblocked, which is where Stutters' first two night actions came from (I'm assuming). We're pretty obvious protect targets, and I told the JK to jail offensively tonight, so I'm assuming he did so. The thing about killing the SK is that it likely means that mafia win after the night kill. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
I think we've had everyone check in but grush, and one roleblock claimed; so GK's rb on night 2 is an 'extra' roleblock. Of course it's possible that Stutters was roleblocked, but unfortunately we'll never know. JJD and GK are my main trains of thought today, if at least one of them isn't anti-town i'll eat Blazinghand's hat. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 28 2013 07:22 VayneAuthority wrote: I keep coming back to this post and the point at which he made it. He was fabricating what the setup was about far before we had any sort of extensive information, I really doubt that any town person makes this post. What I am trying to figure out is if he is the SK or mafia. There are a couple of things that make me think mafia, especially how he orders his lynch targets. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 28 2013 10:01 s0Lstice wrote: Can you elaborate a bit Marv? What about the ordering of his lynch targets says mafia over SK. WoS-- It can't be a coincidence that just about everyone in this game has wanted to kill GK at some point. This is just a guess, but my gut tells me that he is the SK, and the scum team pegged him early. The best way for them to deal with the SK is to lynch him, for obvious reasons....hence all the heat he has been getting from all sides. From this point onward, the moment scum can get the SK in the noose, they win. It really worries me that GK is such a popular candidate for today. I feel pretty confident that GK is not town, but only marginally confident that he is SK over scum. Speaking of Marv, he is who I'd like to kill today, but it's not going to happen. DP's vote in particular would be needed, and he is not willing. I'm nervous enough about GK being the SK that I don't want to kill him today. I'm thinking a Marv/JJ/one of vayne/grush as the remaining scum. As such I'm happy to lynch JJ today with you WoS. ##vote JarJarDrinks Ooh, someone here just before I go to bed. How lovely. Earlyish on Day 1 with the 2 lurkers, he wants to kill sputnik ahead of JJD, before JJD became a scumread. There's a point on day 1 where GK's top scumread suddenly becomes Spicy, and he specifically places him ahead of Jarjar/Dandel - so some townie gets pride of place ahead of 1 (2) mafia. On to day 2, he wants to lynch Dandel *after* 'claimed scum' BH. He in fact calls Dandel "very very scummy", but apparently 2 town masons is that much more unlikely to him, so despite this BH is his 100% choice of lynch on day 2. Today he's very much left his options open, there always seems to be a scumteam but we don't actually know who GK wants to lynch. One interesting thing which may or may not be relevant is that at some point a couple of days ago (or whenever it was) he twice mentioned that he would talk later about who he felt the SK was, but he never followed up on this. There are a couple of other things that I really don't/didn't like about GK, namely - he kept making references (at least 3-4 times) to his other scumgames, despite the fact no-one was bringing them up - he kept using the fact he hadn't read his role PM as a defence I also noted two things at separate points in his filter, I noted when he went after BH on Day 1 - "jesus fuck does he never end. seeing where the shit sticks?" Then later I note to myself "GK is usually so fucking deliberate, yet he changed targets so many times on day 1." What's interesting is that when he's defending himself, he says But what you wouldn't have seen is me throwing around votes as hard as I did or changing my stances like I did. I've played enough to know better than to make a bajillion vote switches as scum. I would have been far more cautious. This was interesting to me because as I recall, it wasn't really anyone's contention that he was mafia for this reason; in fact he brought it up himself as if he was very much aware of it. Also why is it to "know better" not to do this? - often it's a townie trait to switch votes a lot. Just the way he's self-aware of what he's doing and defending himself based on it is pretty dodgy. Your bolded quote is actually a pretty compelling reason for him to be SK and not mafia though. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 28 2013 12:53 goodkarma wrote: I've defended myself about as much as I care to. If you were to look at the way Dandel must have been "bussing" me if I were scum, it just doesn't fit. He made such a haphazard case that was utterly bad. Like wouldn't he be more likely to coordinate / care about this type of action if we were both scum? It would be far more likely that if we were both scum he wouldn't site reasons for lynching me that don't even exist (a "scumslip" that never happened). And yeah, if you'd assume I'd lie about a RB, maybe I could be SK. But what would be my motive for lying? And if I only lied once, which would have to be the case, where did the other RB from day 2 go??? Neither theory makes any sense. You pretty much have to assume I'm a compulsive liar to be SK, and Dandel's actions don't really make sense if we're both scum. And this "He is self-aware of all these things. Therefore, he must be cleverly planning all of this out and tricking us..." kind of logic that seems to be used repeatedly by Marv doesn't really make sense to me. It's like all of this is out there in the open. The SK stuff is especially obvious. Like come on. How hard is it for you guys to figure out I'm not scum? You can talk yourself into some corner that I am some kind of super-clever scumster, or you can just accept that I really don't fit as scum. Maybe I wouldn't have to point this stuff out if you were a little more thorough with your assessment. It deeply bothers me that Marv is pushing this lynch. As far as vote switching and whatnot scummy stuff you have to say about my filter, I've already discussed where I was coming from on all of that. If you feel that my stances were scummy whatever. I've said all I'm going to on that. And regarding my early talk about SK theory, I did discuss that a little bit. It was revolving around speculation on the death of Rayne. But really, I didn't have anything more to bring up on that subject than I already did. To find both SK and scum, my approach has been to use process of elimination to determine who's non-town in this game. I don't feel very good about Marv/Solstice right now. Both have done townie things, and rather non-townie things. I am more confident with JJD/Vayne being non-town right now. And if there's been some "wishy-washy" language here and there, it's because it hasn't been easy for me this game to spot out scum. As such, my assessments and theories have been changing quite a bit. Whatever happens, we're in LYLO, so we'd best come to some kind of consensus on who to vote today. I'm most confident with JJD/Vayne being scum. Solstice I'm a bit more on the fence on. I actually felt some of the arguing he made that DP and Marv were both scum was townie, as I don't visualize a scum sticking his neck out like that. Yet... up until that point he seemed to blend in so darned well... I'll sheep Wave, who I'm confident is town.: ##Vote: JJD My issue with this entire post is that it really addresses little to nothing of what's been said about you. In pretty short: - dandel sacked himself, you can't defend yourself with his actions - saying the logic I use doesn't make sense to you without saying why not isn't a defence. The fact is you're defending yourself from things you're under attack from, repeatedly; i.e. voting a billion times and your previous scumgames. Saying "you don't fit as scum" and other things which you repeatedly say are just baseless statements. - you said you'd talk about SK twice on the 3rd page of your filter, which i assume was after rayne went killed (or if it wasn't, you should be lynched for activity alone  ) | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
What's your stab at a mafia team and/or SK? I'm assuming it has to include someone you previously assumed to be town, so I'd like to know. | ||
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