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@Ace
I think the case on you is mostly process of elimination.
If you are town, then all 7 people on the Axle wagon are very likely town, correct?
So let's look at the people not on the Axle wagon.
marv, Axle, tunkeg, and Oats, and you
marv flipped town.
Axle flipped scum.
Oats seems very likely town IMO.
So for you to be town, tunkeg would pretty much have to be scum. And who else?
Who is scum if not you?
I dunno. Everything is really pointing hard towards at least 1 of Ace + tunkeg being scum if not both.
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I'm going out. May not be back anytime soon.
I think it's silly to lynch anyone so fast when we have like 72 hours to decide a lynch. Why not just give Ace 48 hours to make the 2 best cases he can, and then lynch him if they aren't good enough? Can't hurt. And at least we'd have the cases if he flips town.
Anyway yea goodbye for now people.
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gg Ace + Show Spoiler +i feel kinda bad now for letting you die knowing that you meant that stuff you said about my wagon d1
Well I know what marv is saying in the obs qt
On April 06 2013 19:31 marvellosity wrote:
That's shit. Shitty shitty shitty poopypants.
Don't worry guys now that he isn't around to state scumreads on probable or confirmed townies (iamp, me, WoS, Ace) or state townreads on probable or confirmed scum (axle, tunkeg) I'm sure we can make some progress. At least he took a bullet that was intended for someone scum thought was actually worth shooting + Show Spoiler + sorry that's a bit mean but I think he was asking for it
Anyway in all seriousness, we need to get shit done tomorrow. I think tunkeg looks even worse for the ace flip and the fact that he hasn't posted in 23 hours. And unlike with Ace, I think he is likely to be scum not only due to having townreads on nearly everyone else, but there is significant stuff about his filter I find suspicious. You should all read my N1 deadline post if you haven't already.
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tunkeg its not so much that it makes you look worse but clearly ace was not scum and everyone who DID vote axle now looks even better, no? See my recent filter. You still owe me an explanation on something.
also you guys need to calm down. For one thing you're being unproductive and for another you're all gonna get yourselves modkilled. We just had ONE mislynch and as far as mislynches go it wasn't even that bad. Chill out a little~
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prplhz you still around? I have some questions for you.
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1. Why did you feel the need to drop a vote on WoS when you did?
So here was the votecount
+ Show Spoiler +On April 07 2013 02:02 Dandel Ion wrote:
Votecount:
sciberbia (3): Oatsmaster, raynpelikoneet, AxleGreaser
WaveofShadow (3): Tunkeg, marvellosity, Palmar
AxleGreaser (1): prplhz
Oatsmaster (1): DarthPunk
prplhz (1): iamperfection
Not voting (3): sciberbia, Ace, WaveofShadow
7 votes needed to lynch.
So WoS and I were the two wagons -- tied at three votes each.
Judging by your later posts, you had at this point barely looked at my filter at all. And in the post where you vote WoS, you admit to only skimming tunkeg's case and generally not putting a lot of thought into the vote.
On April 07 2013 02:27 prplhz wrote:
##Vote WaveofShadow
busy might post more later. palmar and marv both on this one so it's probably good. skimmed tunkeg's case and it looked alright though i didn't really get all of it.
Then later you posted this, which makes a lot of sense to me:
On April 07 2013 10:24 prplhz wrote:
i never really thought anybody would hammer today since in these majority lynch games you usually have 72 hours and there's hardly any reason not to use them all.
So if you think it is in town's best interests to wait 72 hours before lynching anybody, why did you feel the need to drop your vote on an early bandwaggon especially when you only skimmed one of the leading cases at the time and handn't even glanced at the other one? I get the feeling you just couldn't have cared less about the lynch.
2. Who stated a town-read on Axle after you voted him?
I don't recall anyone stating a townread on Axle in between these two posts
+ Show Spoiler +On April 05 2013 10:10 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2013 09:55 AxleGreaser wrote:In my reality, I am Still pregame... + Show Spoiler [LOL] +On April 05 2013 04:35 WaveofShadow wrote:
Whass mean 3rd party 'lyncher?'
Neva hoid of it. Google is your friend, well he is my friend. Also i might suggest that the existence of some aspects of this setup mean that doing whatever it is you normally do when night one ends... (that is if you are lucky/good/bad enough to still be alive...) may no longer be the wisest course of action. I would suggest that as Dandel presumably knows the set-up... his advice of "Please consult your brain if you want advice on playing the game." may be the best you're going to get. Even if some people 'soft claim' it is not that useful in their case. On April 05 2013 08:41 iamperfection wrote:
im trying a new style by the way just going to throw that out there and ill be gone for a few hours before we start. hey that was my schtick.... get yer own... damn you Iamp. Axle: hey Skip stop fetching meta,Skip: Woofity Woof woof woff. Axle: Oh what!! you've been chasing rabbits... bad dog.Axle: I suppose that is fair enough though I was counting sheep. Axle: Skip; Fetch me a new Schtick Skip: Woof! Skip: schtick + Show Spoiler + see next post, schtick starts there. "don't mind me, i don't have an alignment" spoilered useless advice annoyance at iamperfection for being first to use an excuse to make reads on him harder ##Vote AxleGreaser On April 06 2013 04:49 prplhz wrote:
can anybody tell me why axlegreaser is town
so I don't know what you're talking about in your explanation here:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 08 2013 03:59 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2013 03:51 Oatsmaster wrote:Hey Prp, Asking you about your past Why did you post this, On April 06 2013 04:49 prplhz wrote:
can anybody tell me why axlegreaser is town sleep or something then On April 07 2013 02:27 prplhz wrote:
##Vote WaveofShadow
busy might post more later. palmar and marv both on this one so it's probably good. skimmed tunkeg's case and it looked alright though i didn't really get all of it. and never talk about Axle again? no one took notice of my initial post on axle and some people actually had town reads on axle so i asked what was up. later, i didn't have a lot of time so i skimmed the biggest case and decided it was alright.
Honestly I doubt you'd lie as either alignment but I just want to be sure you weren't making shit up, so if you could point me to who stated a townread on Axle I'd appreciate it.
3. Walk me through your thought process in the end-of-day voting
Can you just walk me through what you were thinking about who to vote in the last few hours of the day? Specifically, were you planning on voting Ace? Why did you decide to vote for Axle? When/where did you read his filter and what did you think about it? Did you think he was as likely to be scum as Ace?
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No that's all I got. I'm still confused about the 'why is Axle town thing' though.
It is true that I was initially leaning town on Axle and it is true that nobody showed any enthusiasm for your Axle vote.
I'm just confused because this is events as I see them.
prplhz: Axle is scum
rest of thread: ........ *crickets*
prplhz: Can somebody tell me why Axle is town?
scib: sure prplhz here is a reason I think he is town
Palmar: I think Axle is town
Oats: hey prplhz why did you ask that question asking why Axle is town?
prplhz: because some people actually had town reads on Axle and I wanted to know why
And when I asked you to point out these town reads, you pointed to a post made by Palmar well after you asked the thread why Axle is town, so it doesn't seem consistent with your explanation to Oats.
Am I missing something here?
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alrighty prplhz who do you think is scum and why?
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OK well this discussion was pretty unproductive :/
I don't like 48 out of 60 consecutive hours being night. I bet scum are just being jackasses and didn't submit their NK.
Although it did concern me slightly that Dandel felt the need to post this
On April 09 2013 22:16 Dandel Ion wrote:
If I don't get actions by the second deadline, I'll start the day without those, and the opportunity is gone forever! FOREVER I SAY!
We better not have some derpy blue that forgot to use their night action N1 >_>
Would be hilarious if it was an AWOL medic though ^_^
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dozing off. on tablet. prolly wont get up for deadline
so here some thoughts if i die.
dp iamp rayn oats palmar likely all town. nobody is allowed to vote oats without reading marv and oats filters from LIX red team and this game. if you still think he is scum then dayum. would be most improved scumplay ive ever seen.
prplhz tunkeg i could see as either alignment. realistcically spraking probably 1 scum brtween the two. more likely tunkeg imo.
WoS man iono. want to say town but i just feel uneasy every time i read his filter. not sure
night. see you tmrw maybe
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gg all! Very fun game.
Really good town play from everyone really. If anything, the rest of town carried Palmar & marv. - DP and iamp carried really hard all game and especially on D1. Refused to join any of the big townie wagons (WoS, scib, Ace) and got Axle lynched. Well played.
- WoS, prplhz, rayn, and Palmar all helped get Axle lynched and put together a really nice lynch on Oats D3.
- I feel kinda bad about mislynching Ace because he didn't have a bad D1 himself. Argued against the scib and WoS wagons, pushed Oats, and called out Tunkeg. Tunkeg probably would have been a smarter D2 lynch, because unlike Ace his filter actually looked scummy. Still, Ace's flip helped us figure out the rest of the game, so it really wasn't the worst of mislynches.
- And marv took a bullet for me. Good shit.
I'll stand by what I said about oats having the most improved scumplay I've ever seen (in my admittedly short TL mafia career). I think I had some valid scumtells on him early D1 (>_< marv), but his filter looked so unlike his LIX filter that he had me fooled. You guys made some good arguments on him though and I'm impressed that you figured him out.
Tunkeg and Axle I think were relatively easy to catch on similar scumtells. Lack of activity, narrow-mindedness, and unconvincing reasoning for jumping on and off wagons. I'd like to credit all the town members for being active, productive, and reasonable, so that Axle and Tunkeg stood out from everyone else as scummier.
And thanks Dandel, Sylencia, and Cheesecake for a well-hosted game. The frequency of votecounts was very pleasant.
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On April 11 2013 17:18 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2013 16:14 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 11 2013 16:11 DarthPunk wrote:
Looking back on it that axle wagon really raped the scum team. yup. Both of us were sleeping/out. That was probably the tipping point. Marv dying just screwed us over more. Lightning rod should never be ever used again Dandel. It basically takes out the choice in NK day 1 for scum which wouldve been somewhat vital this game. It's kind of funny that you and marv were yelling at me/calling me stupid so much for calling you scum day one.
You should consider yourself lucky DP; calling oats scum nearly got me lynched. Don't let mean old marv get you down 
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I'm strongly in favor of true RNG.
I don't think you can argue that scum played as well as town in this game. Good scumplay is defined per the win condition as not dying. All 3 scum died. It's not like it's not within their power to not die. If they had all played the towniest games of their lives they would surely have won. Not saying it's easy but I'm saying the better team won.
Mafia is a team game. As long as the setup is such that the better team will usually win that is fair in my book.
In most team games you can make fair teams for every game but a key feature of mafia is that knowing who is on your team ruins the game. I think it takes away a lot of the spirit of the game if marv knows going in that either palmar or ace must be scum.
edit: another reason I don't like it is that it puts newer players at a completely unfair disadvantage. All the vets know what teams would be considered balanced but newer players may not.
It also unfairly advantages players who personally know the host and what he would be likely to do.
imo it is much more fun to try to figure out whether someone is scum by analyzing their filter and interactions with other players than playing guess-what-the-host-thought-would-be-fun.
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On April 11 2013 20:53 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2013 20:35 sciberbia wrote:
I'm strongly in favor of true RNG.
I don't think you can argue that scum played as well as town in this game. Good scumplay is defined per the win condition as not dying. All 3 scum died. It's not like it's not within their power to not die. If they had all played the towniest games of their lives they would surely have won. Not saying it's easy but I'm saying the better team won.
Mafia is a team game. As long as the setup is such that the better team will usually win that is fair in my book.
In most team games you can make fair teams for every game but a key feature of mafia is that knowing who is on your team ruins the game. I think it takes away a lot of the spirit of the game if marv knows going in that either palmar or ace must be scum.
edit: another reason I don't like it is that it puts newer players at a completely unfair disadvantage. All the vets know what teams would be considered balanced but newer players may not.
It also unfairly advantages players who personally know the host and what he would be likely to do.
imo it is much more fun to try to figure out whether someone is scum by analyzing their filter and interactions with other players than playing guess-what-the-host-thought-would-be-fun. The thing is, games arent like that. No one ever gets lynched for 'BALANCE REASONS THIS GUY IS SCUM'. There is always the main element of analyzing filters and shit like that.
In the last game I played Prom said he figured that I was scum partly because I had to be for the game to be balanced.
Also I barely followed Hero Mini but I looked at the player list at lylo and judging from the player list and the flips concluded marv was probably scum. In Palmar's video for that game he cited balance reasons as a probable motivation for bug's actions (to be fair I think he was wrong, but the fact he said that balance affected Palmar's thought process and therefore the game).
Like it definitely factors into how some people view the game.
i grant there are pros and cons to balancing but imo the cons outweigh the pros.
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On April 11 2013 21:01 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2013 20:35 sciberbia wrote:
I'm strongly in favor of true RNG.
I don't think you can argue that scum played as well as town in this game. Good scumplay is defined per the win condition as not dying. All 3 scum died. It's not like it's not within their power to not die. If they had all played the towniest games of their lives they would surely have won. Not saying it's easy but I'm saying the better team won.
Mafia is a team game. As long as the setup is such that the better team will usually win that is fair in my book.
In most team games you can make fair teams for every game but a key feature of mafia is that knowing who is on your team ruins the game. I think it takes away a lot of the spirit of the game if marv knows going in that either palmar or ace must be scum.
edit: another reason I don't like it is that it puts newer players at a completely unfair disadvantage. All the vets know what teams would be considered balanced but newer players may not.
It also unfairly advantages players who personally know the host and what he would be likely to do.
imo it is much more fun to try to figure out whether someone is scum by analyzing their filter and interactions with other players than playing guess-what-the-host-thought-would-be-fun. Just a terrible argument all round really. Extreme example: you put 6 chess grandmasters against 6 amateurs. Chess is a game of complete information, so as long as each team has 3 whites and 3 blacks, the match is completely balanced. But of course it isn't, because experience and ability plays a large factor, and the grandmasters will win every time. Much the same in this particular setup; I bet if you ran a simulation of this game 100 times, this town team would at least 80% of the time. Town ran over mafia despite Palmar and I pushing 2 wrong lynches day 1 and despite the fact i was hard defending a mafia. Almost things couldn't have gone worse for town this game and yet it was still totally one-sided. I'm sure this game was "fun" for town with its totally RNG element, but realistically mafia didn't really have a chance. It's a simple fact that mafia teams need people with thread impact.
you're chess example is correct in principle but it's obviously an exaggeration. Most rng's will be somwhat fair. This one just happened to be particularly bad for scum and that is unfortunate but imo it is still better than the alternative.
If you ran a simulation for a penant game between the braves and the marlins the braves would probably win 80 percent of the time AND everyone knows that going in but for any player it is nearly as exciting as if the teams were balanced. Playing for the upset is fun.
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On April 11 2013 21:08 marvellosity wrote:
Mafia were never going to win this game, there was just too large a difference in abilities/thread impact.
This might sound like I'm bashing on the skill of the mafia but it's not how it's meant to come across.
None of the people on the mafia-team have a history of large thread impact in a game and that's just a fact.
This game was always going to be a town win.
If you're happy for a game to be one-sided for the sake of some silly RNG concept, then fine, but you'll get games where mafia basically can't win like this one.
Agreed. I'm fine with games where one team is better. I play sports and if the other team is better than mine I take it as a challenge. It doesn't make the game less fun. As long as I have some reasonable chance to win. yes this is subjective. hence why we disagree.
also this game could have gone much worse for town. None of our power roles were lynched or NK'd. WoS and i barely survived. Axle was lynched out of nowhere.
Oats i dunno how he was even lynched. If town had consisted of 4 sciberbia's we would have lynched prplhz and WoS before Oats. You yourself thought Oats was town. Town just made some really nice reads.
maybe instant majority makes the game imba for town. idk. tough to say i honestly have no idea. seems close to balanced to me though
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I don't know much about this podcast but perhaps that would be a good forum for this discussion?
Before people start wondering why there is a game of mafia at the beginning of the RNG DISCUSSION thread lol
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marv i agree. While as people have said it is very hard to measure skill in mafia, I agree that this town could reasonably have been expected to outplay this scumteam. I just dont think that is a big problem. I think the game was still fun for everyone. I think scum, while underdogs, had a legitamate chance at pulling a nice upset.
Even with this extreme disparity in 'balance' I,think this game was fun as hell and fair in that the team that played better won the game.
I can see how it would be cool if you always had a 50 percent chance to win but imo balancing is bad for a number of reasons as we have been discussing that make the game less fun and less fair.
So this is imo the lesser of two evils and imo this game was a success. It seems that some people such as yourself and oats enjoy a game less if you know you are an underdog at the start. I am not one of those people. I think you should just take it as a challenge. I think most people are like that. You know.. like how a bad team in sports still tries their damndest to beat their rivals in a big game.
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yea we won with only one mislynch but the game could have been closer. WoS gets hammered by axle. Palmar dies as LR. We lynch axle and shoot tunkeg. Me and you are still alive and refuse to lynch Oats. maybe we end up losing. Who knows?
Look at dwarf mini. we had you, me, keirathi, hiro.pro, some vet smurf and i forget who else. DoYouHas stomped us all. Would you have predicted that?
Look at yanmm. town had palmar bugs toad iamp prom and i won as first time scum. and im not a particularly good scum player. would you have predicted that?
I dont think this game was as much of a sure thing as you think it was. I mean yea its hard to prove anything but i dunno i just think scum had a legit chance to win.
anyway i have to go. was fun chatting with you all. for some reason i love reading axle's post game posts.
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EPT
