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On May 05 2013 02:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:53 yamato77 wrote:
And you are scummy, because you never did push any lynch.
I find it funny that you want to reject logic that might confirm you as town with the JK business. how is me not wanting the jk to get shot bad logic? You think i am scum. say jk comes out and i get confirmed as town? i get shot right after he does. if it looks like the person he knows is town by your logic ever looks like they are going to get lynched then claiming isn't a bad idea but doing it during a night phase is dumb as fuck.
The longer he waits, the more likely it is that mafia shoot him. If he gets shot before he claims, we lose this information. There's little reason to wait, because the game is basically SOLVED.
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On May 05 2013 02:58 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:56 yamato77 wrote:
Who knows, JK might be someone else we're looking at.
Why the fuck are you arguing against confirming 2 town this late in the game? Again if he is almost lynched then he can claim. Also against confirming? This game is about finding mafia no? Yes clearing town is helpful as fuck, but If Palmar and I are on the right track with our thinking then what does it matter? Currently we arent lynching either myself or palmar so why dont you do what he and i are doing and assume for the moment both he and i are town.
Because I lynch mafia, and you are very likely to be mafia.
Either way, I'd rather lynch hopeless today, but the BC/Palmar situation could be resolved in reality, and not some pretend fantasy world so long as the JK claims and clears one of you.
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On May 05 2013 03:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 03:00 yamato77 wrote:On May 05 2013 02:58 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 05 2013 02:56 yamato77 wrote:
Who knows, JK might be someone else we're looking at.
Why the fuck are you arguing against confirming 2 town this late in the game? Again if he is almost lynched then he can claim. Also against confirming? This game is about finding mafia no? Yes clearing town is helpful as fuck, but If Palmar and I are on the right track with our thinking then what does it matter? Currently we arent lynching either myself or palmar so why dont you do what he and i are doing and assume for the moment both he and i are town. Because I lynch mafia, and you are very likely to be mafia. Either way, I'd rather lynch hopeless today, but the BC/Palmar situation could be resolved in reality, and not some pretend fantasy world so long as the JK claims and clears one of you. and whats your solution if the town jk protected palmar and I get confirmed as town? Lynch him? because I am not as sure of him anymore. There doesn't have to be a mafia in the two of us, we just assumed there did.
I would feel it likely that the one we don't clear is actually mafia, yes. You two are among the last few people I'm worried about in this game at all.
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It's also possible you're both town, given the logic that scum were unlikely to double stack night 1, but they could have shot ace, he wouldn't claim the hit because it just means mafia shoot him again.
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On May 05 2013 13:19 Sharrant wrote:
Whether or not it happened, to discount scum jailing one of their own on day as "very improbable" is unwise in my opinion. Jailer claiming would give us one confirmed townie, then a dead townie the following night and no protection from that point on. And it wouldn't give us another confirmed townie because scum no doubt put more than two seconds thought into their night one jail.
If they did that, they'd first come to your conclusion, and then realize that they only had probably 1/3 chance of hitting a role that would be hampered by a role block, and that they could use their own roleblock for town cred.
Now it doesn't matter whether they did that or not, because just the fact that they could have done that means that you can't confirm a second person from a jailer claim. Thus I urge the jailer not to claim.
Yes, you can, because scum wouldn't jail their own N1. Stopping a cop/other jailer is so much more important than the "town cred" from a N1 roleblock.
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On May 05 2013 14:20 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 14:12 yamato77 wrote:On May 05 2013 13:19 Sharrant wrote:
Whether or not it happened, to discount scum jailing one of their own on day as "very improbable" is unwise in my opinion. Jailer claiming would give us one confirmed townie, then a dead townie the following night and no protection from that point on. And it wouldn't give us another confirmed townie because scum no doubt put more than two seconds thought into their night one jail.
If they did that, they'd first come to your conclusion, and then realize that they only had probably 1/3 chance of hitting a role that would be hampered by a role block, and that they could use their own roleblock for town cred.
Now it doesn't matter whether they did that or not, because just the fact that they could have done that means that you can't confirm a second person from a jailer claim. Thus I urge the jailer not to claim. Yes, you can, because scum wouldn't jail their own N1. Stopping a cop/other jailer is so much more important than the "town cred" from a N1 roleblock. Then how do you explain both of the people roleblocked on night one being alive? Surely if a vet would be considered confirmed town after such an action, the mafia would have had to kill him as quickly as possible, even if they were a mislynch possibility just based on the fact that the jailer could claim.
The jailer wouldn't claim until a situation like this, and the chances of the jailer and the scum target both being alive, plus the scum jailer dead at this point in the game are relatively low. All of those things are required for this to be successful. You don't go in to a game, especially on N1 after a mislynch, assuming that your roleblock could somehow later on confirm a townie. You go in trying to stop a cop or a JK from getting off their night actions. It's not that difficult to understand.
You're making this far too complicated. It's simple. Town JK roleblocked someone night 1, and he did it trying to protect them. That says nothing about their alignment. Scum used JK on someone night 1 trying to stop a night action, and that makes that person CONFIRMED not mafia.
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The notion that the jailer claim does not confirm town is a bad one. Stop being bad.
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On May 06 2013 04:35 TheRavensName wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2013 04:30 yamato77 wrote:
The notion that the jailer claim does not confirm town is a bad one. Stop being bad. SCum could have just as easily shot Ace Night 1 or double stacked to get rid of the potential veteran. I would rather not lose the JK. Thats just me.
I'm starting to think you are mafia.
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On May 06 2013 04:39 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2013 04:36 yamato77 wrote:On May 06 2013 04:35 TheRavensName wrote:On May 06 2013 04:30 yamato77 wrote:
The notion that the jailer claim does not confirm town is a bad one. Stop being bad. SCum could have just as easily shot Ace Night 1 or double stacked to get rid of the potential veteran. I would rather not lose the JK. Thats just me. I'm starting to think you are mafia. He brings up a legitimate point, and that's what sparks your interest in him as mafia? I disagree about the double stacking, but it's perfectly possible they hit Ace on night one. Mafia players obviously had no traction on day 2, how could they swing the lynch onto him? Besides, what if the jailer is Geript? We'd lose a confirmed townie just to play the wifom game some more on night actions from day one.
Because the jailer claim has nothing to do with who scum shot, it has to do with who they jailed. He's obviously not even paying close attention to the thread.
And no, it's not a WIFOM game. You're being bad by suggesting it is. Scum jailed a townie night one, and we can figure out who that is if the town jailer claims. The fact that it's one of BC/Palmar is fucking invaluable information. Stop trying to argue against this.
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You're making this too complicated. KISS.
I'm going afk. Think seriously about what I've said, because it's the best thing anyone could possibly do today. I know what I'm talking about. You've never even been mafia.
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Because BC is claiming mafia.
Apparently I'm mafia with Hopeless, LOLOLOLOL.
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I feel it highly unlikely that scum-WoS (a first time mafia player) would be as active as he has been, nor do I feel it likely that he would have the balls to claim miller as mafia, either.
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On May 06 2013 09:56 GiygaS wrote:God damnit, looking through on kush (who I thought was uber disinterested mafia) makes me suspect yamato which would invalidate my read on Hopeless! This is confusing  This is the post that really got me (kush pointed this out before me): Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 00:35 yamato77 wrote:
The reason I'm running through all this is that I'm not particularly happy with any of the lynches that most of town is talking about. VE of yesterday feels somewhat town. I feel like more time would only bury scum VE or give chance to solidify a town read on VE. There's absolutely no rush for his lynch to be finalized.
Shaio is easy to mislynch, as evidenced by the suspicion on him in day 2 of British Empire 1, also an instant lynch where he was lurkish, and eventually replaced. The worst part of his filter is the hammer sequence, but even that could be explained by overly eager town who got caught up in the game emotionally.
Clarity is always inactive, and him being fixated on Sharrant is not alignment indicative. His case is objectively something that scum like to do, but in the context of the game, I can see a town Clarity who had a late start feeling the need to get his thoughts about the game on the table, even if they weren't about the main lynch candidates. The fact that he basically has no other reads in the game is a point in his favor, but just like VE, we can afford to play a waiting game with him, seeing as we have unlimited time.
At the very least, we need real discussion about the alignments of Ace/BC/Palmar before we move forward with any lynch. Ace is the most town out of the three, and BC the least, in my eyes. I'd say a long day is in order, and town need to consolidate pressure upon just a few people so that we can determine their alignments more clearly. Soft defense on the two scum that were up for lynching makes yamato look really bad. This case was rejected by Ace (who was probably pushing mafia agenda at this point to avoid being the last non-town left), but advocated by BC and praised by VE. This post is then ignored for the rest of the game. I sort of want to go through Yamato's filter now and see what's up, but at the very least I'm unvoting from Hopeless until I figure this out.
That post isn't about "defending scum" it's about giving real discussion on other players besides Clarity/Shiao. It's advocating a longer day. It's doubting a quick lynch. All of these things actually happened after this post, too.
If you'll notice, I suspected both of them the night before, and ended the day with my vote on Shiao, despite the majority consensus of lynching Clarity. This one post looks bad out of context. It's been talked about before, but it doesn't mean what you think it means.
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Also, I'm beginning to rethink my townread of Sharrant. That vote is scummy as fuck.
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On May 06 2013 10:21 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2013 10:18 yamato77 wrote:
Also, I'm beginning to rethink my townread of Sharrant. That vote is scummy as fuck. Please show me exactly where ShiaoPi was overcome with excitement in his filter. Show me where there's even a hint of emotion.
That's not the point. The point is that he could have just been bad. There's town explanations for every vote. The fact that my initial gut reaction of calling him mafia for it was right doesn't mean some townie wouldn't do the exact same thing.
I wanted to talk about other people. I was successful in getting other players' opinions on Ace/BC/Palmar. I will stand by my intentions.
The fact that you're fixated on a meaningless detail of one post in my filter that was taken out of context is ridiculous. Reread the game, because you'll obviously see my actual motive unfold in the conversation that followed that post.
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All I'm gaining from this game is that if you troll day one, you'll never live it down.
20 pages of filter and more analysis of this game than all of you, yet I'm still getting called mafia.
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On May 06 2013 10:56 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2013 10:54 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 06 2013 10:52 Sharrant wrote:On May 06 2013 10:44 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 06 2013 10:36 Sharrant wrote:On May 06 2013 10:29 yamato77 wrote:
All I'm gaining from this game is that if you troll day one, you'll never live it down.
20 pages of filter and more analysis of this game than all of you, yet I'm still getting called mafia. It might also have to do with the fact that of the three lynches you pushed on day 1/2, 2 flipped town. Your first list of scum is 3 town, 1 unflipped and 1 3rd party, and that you have a soft defense of two scum thrown in for good measure. I'll grant you that there's some redeeming qualities in your filter, but there's a reason you're going to keep coming up as a lynch prospect in this game. We're not lynching BC today, and we're not lynching Palmar. I want both of them alive for at least another night. There's no way they're both scum, so let's find the one, possibly two that are outside of them. We're not? The vote count would appear to say otherwise currently. I doubt you're getting yamato lynched today; I'm certainly not voting for him. Is he honestly at L-2 right now? And yes, we are not lynching BC today. If I have to stop the wagon on him, I will. And I will not be happy about it. Uh...if you are saying that you have a way to do so, then you probably should if you don't want him lynched....though I'm thinking maybe you already did. He's at L-2, as long as the rest of the people that come into the thread think about things, there's no reason to do anything to defend him right now. I'll try something different here. Yamato: I am telling you that your own analysis will tell you, in the end, that BC is not scum if you stick to what you've said. Now talk to me about two people that would be scum if BC were as good as confirmed town.
Palmar/Hopeless.
I might rethink my town read of kush, but only if they both flip town.
Palmar's claim is convenient. It's also sub-par for what I expect from Palmar, because it was objectively bad and he's not bad enough as town, I believe, to actually make that claim and expect to be taken seriously. There's also all the other stuff I've said about Palmar and his RB claim, plus my general doubts about his play. I've been letting it skate by because of my read of BC, but if I'm wrong about BC, Palmar is literally the next scummiest person, and he looks fairly bad.
Hopeless I've talked about ad nauseum. He tryharded yesterday to look involved, but today he's done little to interact with town, as he has all game. Notably, Palmar also didn't want to lynch Hopeless yesterday because "he had some argument and it made him look townie" which is weak.
I've been saying that these three (Palmar/BC/Hopeless) are the only ones I'm worried about for a reason. I've been asking for the claim for a reason, because confirming one of Palmar/BC virtually solves the game. Unless one of these two flips town, I have no reason to doubt the analysis I've made of this game.
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On May 06 2013 16:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'm lost. Yamato, BM, geript, tell me what to do.
Pretty sure we aren't killing BC today.
Would rather see Palmar or Hopeless hang.
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EPT
