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This is easily one of the most fun games I've ever played thus far guise. Though I get the feeling BH is gonna get some setup backlash once its over.
Yamato lynch ace because mafia or 3p? Remember we are going to have to find 2 more mafia and we're not all that close atm it seems.
Personally I could see Palmar and either Stutters or GigabyteS. I have to try to figure out what Palmar's check today really means; I'm also curious as to whether him not following the plan means something...?
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Fucker just hammered himself. All I can say is if he is somehow town and we have players like this we are rightly fucked. Too many people voted too early on a day we were supposed to take it slow.
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And there we are. Fuck all y'all 'cause I was right D2 also. (Except for thinking Clarity was town lol) Time to go look through a bunch of shit to see what I can seeeeeeeeeeeee
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Oh yeah, missing RB probably also explained; Shiao was afk a whole weekend, right?
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On April 23 2013 00:31 Palmar wrote: List of probably town:
Bill Murray getmoript (QT thing) Vivax slot machine dude hopeless
list of maybe town:
Ace grush cheesecake kush Sylencia TheRavensName
list of who knows:
WaveofShadow Tube Drazak Clarity_nl Sharrant Yamato77 ShiaoPi
list of bloodycobblers:
BloodyCobbler
list of somewhat scummy fuckers (based on absolutely nothing):
DoctorHelvetica ObviousOne Oatsmaster giggles This post is interesting now. Note how more than half the scumteam is contained within. (If you don't believe I'm town or Sharrant is, then ignore the green) Note also instead of calling them 'somewhat scummy,' which isn't even committing to a read, (especially since he says it's based on nothing) he groups them into 'who knows' to avoid even associating the word scumy with them. CONTINUING THE REAADDDD I'll try to consolidate my next post just wanted to get this one out thar
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On May 01 2013 03:27 TheRavensName wrote: Look. No more mafia jailer. That's much more useful then clarity. Bussing looks to be a sure thing. How is jailer more useful than extra mafia KP? The only thing that made the bus a sure thing was the likelihood of Clarity's being modkilled. It's possible they follow your train of thought, but either way bus was obvious and necessary for scum.
Case on Palmar inc., though not sure if more likely scum or town yet. I'm about halfway in.
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Alright I can see that. Either way the fact that mafia have been bussing for most of this game isn't exactly news. TRN what are your thoughts on Palmar atm since I'm in the middle of analyzing him?
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On April 23 2013 18:24 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 17:52 Clarity_nl wrote: I wouldn't lynch him right now, no. Would want to hear from him first.
Don't have many full fledged opinions yet, but the people I was gonna look into next (that being tonight, have work soon) were gonna be giygas, bc and shiaopi (mainly because I don't remember much of them from reading through the thread) sup scum This one is a point FOR town Palmar becuase I can't see them making the decision to bus Clarity this early when he was actually active, unless they realized his play was so shitty he'd be going down immediately.
On April 26 2013 04:05 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 03:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: Here's how i see things: Vivax was shot because he was on the right track and town read for like everyone. This means probably at least one of ShiaoPi / Clarity is mafia. If Vivax was double stacked he was likely even more right in his reads. But i don't think this is the case here. It's clear that whoever jailed Palmar thought he was town. Town jailers do not jail offensively and mafia jailers do not jail defensively on N1. As there is no other flip than Vivax' it's highly likely that Palmar was shot, because i can't see who else scum would have shot over him. I'm not even going to go to the fact that this would also require a doctor to target the same (other than Palmar) target.
So unless someone else claims shot / roleblocked it's very likely that Palmar got shot and is town.
I don't like ShiaoPi lynch because it was brought up by VE who i think is scum. If Vivax was right on both of ShiaoPi/Clarity then it doesn't matter, but if one of them is town it's probably ShiaoPi. As i think Palmar is town, i do not think he is wrong about VE. But if VE is not gonna get lynched today, i'm going to vote for Clarity over ShiaoPi.
Now, you want to bring up an entirely different target in BC. Understandable, as you seem to think he is mafia. But you also bring up reasons why ShiaoPi/Clarity might be town. That is something i do not understand. If you think BC is better lynch than them, fine, push his lynch. But the way to do it is not by discrediting other people's cases unless you actually think they are town, which you don't seem to. Agree with everything, especially that ShiaoPi is probably town and Clarity is probably scum. Here his agreement with Rayn puts VE in the position he is in if scum. The bus is more likely to have begun here, but can't be sure of stuff yet. VE was looking scummy earlier on in the game to be fair to Palmar,but he was not a likely lynch that day. The push onto VE overall though looks really bad since trying to push a 3rd possibly-town wagon when two scum are up for lynch...well......
On April 27 2013 18:58 Palmar wrote: Still think VE is the best lynch.
But I do agree with a clarity lynch. I still don't understand how he entered the thread "catching up" and then had a fully fledged case within an hour. There was additionally no interest in pushing that lynch any harder. There is literally not a single "sharrant" in his filter after the case.
It just doesn't feel natural. He didn't ask Sharrant anything to try to determine his alignment, no "hey sharrant, explain this" or "what do you think about this". Just a straight up case with no build-up and no follow-up. Which basically tells me his heart wasn't really in it.
So with that I'm switching my vote to Clarity.
Lessgo.
This looks like the post where scum Palmar realizes his push is a bad idea.
On April 29 2013 05:56 Palmar wrote: yeah he didn't say anything interesting and wanted me to put into effort of reading someone I didn't want to read at the time so I had no interest in the topic and consequently forgot about it. On the topic of the TRN Mason QT. Says he forgot about it his story is somewhat corroborated by TRN...though I can't understand why you wouldn't interact at all with your masoner unless you worried about them picking up a read on you. The fact that Palmar uses the fact that TRN masoned him as evidence as to his towniness reads to me that he has no idea about TRN's play or the fact that he is new at the game (I picked him as town ages ago, I'm fairly sure others have as well) and so is worried about the potential for TRN outing him as scum when in fact TRN's chances of doing so as being new to Palmar's play are probably low.
On April 29 2013 06:00 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 05:56 Sharrant wrote:On April 29 2013 05:55 TheRavensName wrote:On April 29 2013 05:53 raynpelikoneet wrote: TRN can you post the logs? I was told that is against the rules. How many posts did Palmar make? Can you please paraphrase as best you can as to his actual respones, with as little as bias as possible. 3 posts (cba checking) 1 about asking TRN why he chose me and what he hoped to achieve. 2 saying I wanted to lynch VE and hadn't read into WoS 3 the post TRN mentioned about "oats was always going to flip town". SO here he mentions I was the one TRN brought up that he didn't feel like looking into. Ok, I get that, but just the day before he says this:
On April 26 2013 04:06 Palmar wrote: Also I haven't really read much today because I think it's so blindingly obvious we should lynch VE, but if no one else has brought it up, I have very bad feelings about WaveOfShadow based on what I had read up until like 10 pages ago. Wouldn't this make me a suspect of his and someone he's likely to have read? Especially since I'm pretty sure I claimed miller before TRN's mason time ended and was super high on EVERYONE's suspicion list.
Palmar then begins to buddy up to his previous scumread in VE to try and get BC lynched. Presumably this is due to his N1 and N2 checks, which makes sense and is a point for Palmar having told the truth. (The long con is definitely possible, but is that likely to Palmar's scumplay? I don't know him that well.)
On April 29 2013 09:48 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 09:36 TheRavensName wrote:On April 29 2013 09:27 Palmar wrote: Look at this bloodycobbler actively hunting third parties everywhere!
Also BC, did you ever explain why it would be a better idea to vig me than to lynch me? Personally I think that would be a waste of a shot since you have night protection. I did not ask you, I wanted BC's explanation for his statement. It's one of his slips this game. He called out for a player that he knew could be active, had the support of several important townies, to be vigged.I wonder if he was simply afraid that he would never be able to mislynch me? I called Palmar out for this earlier and he never responded; which important townies had Palmar's back at this point? I didn't count many despite his crusade for action against 'the cobbler.'
On April 29 2013 10:34 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 10:31 Ace wrote: no, we aren't lynching syl. There is stupidity going on right now.
CC - I dont know why you checked Shiao Night 1. That is a major stretch that you check him, he gets brought up, temp cleared, and then you check sylencia. thats 2 lurkers who have no impact on the game that you checked. not buying it. especially since you just claimed, without counter claiming Palmar. If you believe Palmar is a Cop there is no point in claiming right now as you'd let BC die with your vote. If you dont believe him, you vote him off. Claiming right now to add another suspect in the pool is nonsense. its not even been an hour since your case on sylencia - you could have pushed it ot let it marinate more. Your urgency shows little thinking here.
Lastly, you also can not confirm your check. Shiao hasn't flipped. We've got 2 Cops, both unconfirmed claiming results on the same day within an hour of each other. Both that also appeared on the infamous Oats wagon analysis.
bullshit. one of you is definitely lying and both of you made a bad play here. lol Ace we ARE lynching sylencia. absolute worst case scenario is CC is scum and we lynch townies for 2 days before lynching or vigging CC in return, leaving us with plenty of townies and like 2 mafia left. something like 11 townies maybe? You're crazy if you don't lynch sylencia. I REALLY didn't like this post at the time. We know there's 3rd party and 3 scum left here so we certainly did not have 'plenty of townies.' Everything he says about being a cop though isn't provable one way or the other as of yet at this point; the rb and his checks check out. I don't know I don't like the idea that he making mislynches feel better than they actually would have been but it's such a scummy thing to post knowing the math that I don't see scum doing it.
On April 29 2013 10:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 10:49 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I wouldn't have claimed if Palmar didn't go full retard and give us a red check without any prior checks. The situation could have turned out STUPID bad if BC was town and Palmar was actually insane cop, hedging his bets on being sane. But I like killing people so I get excited. Anyway, it's irrelevant. I had you as town read for most of the game, I've usually thought of you as nully to leaning town, and then you of course went and looked real town with grush after that hammer post. So, I don't think you're scum, which basically means I'm pretty cool with killing sylencia as he looks awful anyway, and shaiopi looks somewhat towny.
Well knowing what we know now.... I don't if anything can be said about this since everyone more or less agreed Sylencia didn't look great, but to say Shiao looked TOWNY is a GROSS overstatement. I also remember asking at some point whoever found Shiao towny, WHY did they think so and no one ever answered. Hmm.
Alright sadly I don't have much to conclude about this case. Imo the scum points outweigh the town points just based on his filter and he's had a cba attitude for much of the game. We can't even discern his alignment based on his checks either because he didn't follow the plan which looks scummy as well. If he is telling thr truth he must be either paranoid or insane (which would make him exactly the same as CC? Same role AND same alignment? Unlikely imo....) and if he's paranoid he's more or less useless, no? I dunno guys, help me out.
I'm leaning scum overall but we have nother night of NKs ahead of us before we must act.
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TRN I'd really like Ace to come back as I'd like to know what he has to say about Yamato's case, as well as Palmar.
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On May 01 2013 04:14 VisceraEyes wrote: The final two scum were on a team with 3 inactives. Is it more likely that the remaining scum are hyperactive to kind of disassociate through perceived mindset differences or whatever, or that they're also lurking through De motivation or whatever?
I would say the latter. I think the last scum are going to be semilurky angry dudes. Palmar and yamato both fit this description. Definitely gonna be some RNG rage after this game. VE I agree with you somewhat but I also worry that we've been tearing ourselves apart (with the help of a 3p who I'd argue MUST be active this game) and the 4/5 scum could be GiygaS/stutters or something stupid like that.
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On May 01 2013 04:18 VisceraEyes wrote: Does that seem likely to you? Wanna lynch them before Palmar, yamato or BC? Not necessarily since there's always that 'well why are they still alive' factor, amirite? We'll have to see where tonight takes us and continue to discuss until the flip. VE I will follow TRN's curiousity on this; what are your thoughts regarding Ace atm?
TRN I suppose it's possible for 3rd party not to be present this game but I find it unlikely; where does the 2nd night kill on N2 come from? Can you explain all the rbs/kills without the presence of 3rd party?
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On May 01 2013 04:43 TheRavensName wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 04:39 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 01 2013 04:18 VisceraEyes wrote: Does that seem likely to you? Wanna lynch them before Palmar, yamato or BC? Not necessarily since there's always that 'well why are they still alive' factor, amirite? We'll have to see where tonight takes us and continue to discuss until the flip. VE I will follow TRN's curiousity on this; what are your thoughts regarding Ace atm? TRN I suppose it's possible for 3rd party not to be present this game but I find it unlikely; where does the 2nd night kill on N2 come from? Can you explain all the rbs/kills without the presence of 3rd party? Mafia JOAT/2nd Vigi? We only have one kill to point at and it was when Vigis could shoot, not night 1. 2 mafia vig in this clusterfuck of a game doesn't seem likely when town has no night KP. JOAT more likely but then that means what, they haven't used their power a 2nd time? Or the N1 Rbs were both mafia and we don't have a JK OR vigs?
I dunno...the likeliest to me seems like 3rd party poisoner but if you are right then it's scum JOAT and 3rd party survivor. (I always assume 3rd party in games like this becuase there always fucking is)
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On May 01 2013 05:00 kushm4sta wrote: what day is it? It's Christmas day. Fucking do something.
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On May 01 2013 05:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 23:26 Sharrant wrote: I don't see a town jailer doing that, to be honest. My most likely scenario is:
N1: Palmar jailed (seemed to be the towniest looking Vet in a lot of people's eyes) BC RB'ed
N2: Ace Jailed (Just lynched scum) Either Ace also RB'ed or maybe RB on their shot (not sure if that messes with veteran orSK/SP protection in this game.)
N3 ??? Jailed VE RB'ed
I will be considering VE confirmed town because of this. The exception is if it was a town jailer who jailed BC, Ace was double jailed, and the jailer did not think the plan through and decided to VE because... terrible reasoning? It seems like a stretch to think of this as two town jailers.
But I would wager that Palmar and Ace were both town jailed. I guess it remains to be seen if there's another roleblocked player. But a town jailer jailing VE just does not make sense to me. This post doesn't make sense. The only way to be roleblocked in this game is to be jailed. IE for me to be roleblocked n1 requires me being jailed. As it would with Palmar. N2 we only had ace rb'ed and VE on n3. These all count as protections as well. I find it extremely unlikely that one jailkeeper is so inactive to not send in their power use for two night periods. Given that I doubt BH would be so much of an ass to not let mafia control an inactive member of their teams powers it means a town jailer has been mia 99% of the game or one of Palmar and I is lying about n1. I know what my pms say thus I say palmar and if he lied about that he sure as hell is lying about his claim. Or scum JOAT, as TRN and I discussed. That would fulfill the possibility that neither of you is lying.
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Or one of you IS scum JOAT....lol
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On May 01 2013 06:08 VisceraEyes wrote: Also guys at what point are we going to discuss the viability of TRN as a lynch candidate considering we've flipped a town masoner already? Because I was waiting until more scum flipped, and it seems like now is a good time to bring up the subject. Considering the possibility of 3 fucking dts isn't completely off the table (or at least the possibility that one of you didn't actually lie) I'd believe it. I dunno I've had Raven as town all game---do you have something else to go on?
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On May 01 2013 06:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 05:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 01 2013 05:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On April 30 2013 23:26 Sharrant wrote: I don't see a town jailer doing that, to be honest. My most likely scenario is:
N1: Palmar jailed (seemed to be the towniest looking Vet in a lot of people's eyes) BC RB'ed
N2: Ace Jailed (Just lynched scum) Either Ace also RB'ed or maybe RB on their shot (not sure if that messes with veteran orSK/SP protection in this game.)
N3 ??? Jailed VE RB'ed
I will be considering VE confirmed town because of this. The exception is if it was a town jailer who jailed BC, Ace was double jailed, and the jailer did not think the plan through and decided to VE because... terrible reasoning? It seems like a stretch to think of this as two town jailers.
But I would wager that Palmar and Ace were both town jailed. I guess it remains to be seen if there's another roleblocked player. But a town jailer jailing VE just does not make sense to me. This post doesn't make sense. The only way to be roleblocked in this game is to be jailed. IE for me to be roleblocked n1 requires me being jailed. As it would with Palmar. N2 we only had ace rb'ed and VE on n3. These all count as protections as well. I find it extremely unlikely that one jailkeeper is so inactive to not send in their power use for two night periods. Given that I doubt BH would be so much of an ass to not let mafia control an inactive member of their teams powers it means a town jailer has been mia 99% of the game or one of Palmar and I is lying about n1. I know what my pms say thus I say palmar and if he lied about that he sure as hell is lying about his claim. Or scum JOAT, as TRN and I discussed. That would fulfill the possibility that neither of you is lying. Except according to the OP JOATs can't roleblock. OOOO interesting; you're right. This means if we don't have 3p with KP then scum JOAT hasn't used their 2nd night power?
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On May 01 2013 06:21 VisceraEyes wrote: We don't have enough kills for there to be an SK or poisoner do we? I mean, they oculd have been hiding it on likely medic protects or something, but both SK and poisoner are compulsive and we've gone a couple nights with 1 kill right? Only poisoner is possible if it overlapped with CC or the target got protected, or if poisoner is Ace (got rbed N2). SK impossible imo
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Who was blocked N2? Just Ace? Hmm. I'm gonna go with Shiao didn't submit and town JK for 1000$
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Oh wait. Can town JOAT JK? Cause I has a theory if so. If not its the above.
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