EPTThe Game [N] - Page 14
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Maybe TPS as well since he signed up for this game for some reason. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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I'm so sorry I checked him guys, I wish we had mislynched him instead of someone actually useful. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 27 2013 13:44 layabout wrote: TPS uses his greencheck to help mafia win. TPS is probaly the ___father. This is scummy as hell layabout. I've been saying shit like this all game but at the same time saying I still have to assume he's green for now. You bring this up right as all the chaos is going down regarding your 3rd party wincons and late-day lynch targeting? The only reason I could think to bring up another possible lynch target right now is to misdirect. This does make it seem like you're trying to cause chaos. Thank you for answering my questions though. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 27 2013 13:51 RyuSuzaku wrote: false. At any point where town can win, the only time it doesn't matter who you side with is when you've already lost, aka kingmaker. In all other situations it's optimal to lynch CONFIRMED NONTOWN. You are not this stupid, and if you truly are then in postgame I will make sure everyone knows how much of a noob you are. Sorry dude, you're wrong this time. Mafia absolutely needs to die today BECAUSE THEY LOSE A KP. Now how exactly will you be proving that DP is a noob? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
TPS do you plan on revealing yourself at any point during the game or postgame? Unrelated really because I already asked you this in an earlier post, but this 'spammy playstyle' is all I've known and I've never heard anyone else complain about it before now. I see where it creates problems especially for people who can't be available a lot, but there have been quite a few players who haven't done much this game and written just a few long posts/cases per day and still been somewhat effective (ie You/Wriggles getting Ace lynched. 'Effective being you accomplished that goal, to what ends in your case we don't know for sure of course). I just don't see how it's possible in a huge game like this to post less and still be effectively arguing a case, especially when the action is extremely heavy like right now. Maybe you're just referring to spam-posting when there's nothing else going on? In which I'd say I'm not sure that even really effects anything since those posts are mostly spam and can be skipped in a filter...but I digress. TPS can you give us a little more to go on before you disappear? Any other scumreads and why? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
I've literally posted this like 3 times and people like you and Geript constantly seem to be ignoring it. Use your brain. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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# of mafia = sqrt(# of players) Assuming we have 3rd party reducing town numbers, a 6th mafia member would severely tip the balance in mafia favour. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
We just need a strong enough likelihood of hitting said mafia, which I believe as a town we are working on. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Ryu, question. If you believe cosmic and layabout are scum, and you seem to believe DP is as well, do you really think that 2/4 of the remaining scum would all be the first to jump on a wagon against kita? The other interesting thing to note about that is cosmic and layabout are not coalescing their votes onto the same target; they pick out kita and DP, which leads me to believe they are attempting to hedge their bets/protect someone. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 27 2013 14:38 ThePeashooter wrote: One last thing before I go to bed. I would imagine the mafia are a much larger threat than the third party right now. I would keep that in mind with those saying we need to lynch the third party. To the mafia that's just one person closer to their objective of outnumbering the town, this is even more true if one death means multiple third party people die. I feel like I had another thing but my mind is drawing blanks, so I'm off to bed. I agree with this, but if you believe this and you haven't changed your vote it means you believe cc and layabout are lying and are scum rather than 3rd party? I'm not sure this makes sense...? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
I think the most we're going to learn from this is from those who think cc is mafia rather than 3rd party, namely kita. I find it hard to believe that they are lying about the third party issue because that means cc essentially killed layabout if he flips red OR black, (especially since layabout can't seem to get his story straight as to what the role/recruitment means) and I can't see a reason for cc outing another member of his scumteam for essentially no reason. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
In this case it makes most sense just to get 3rd party lynched since I don't want to risk mislynching kita since I still have a townread on him. Vote: Cosmicomics | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
We are now at 8:4, assuming 5 mafia at game start. Whether or not layabout was town or mafia at the time of conversion doesn't matter in terms of a count since there will be 4 mafia now either way (it's possible there were 3 before we killed cc). Ugh I've tried to work out the math but it's late and I'm an idiot or something. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we're at LYLO tomorrow? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
2 KP means they either have 3 scum left and it's rounded up or 4 scum and it's rounded either up or down. If they still have 2 KP after tomorrow night (Night 5---if we don't lose) that means they had 4 scum and it was rounded up and we're at LYLO again the next day (D6). If it's either of the other two possible scenarios we have more time. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 28 2013 08:37 kitaman27 wrote: I'm pretty sure cosmic wasn't lying when he said he could swing things either way. He thought I was mafia and tried to get me to cooperate with him to achieve a mafia/third party victory. Anyone notice how he never mentioned a second recruit besides layabout? Layabout was masoned day one, VE was masoned day two and rejected, mystery player X was masoned day three and likely accepted because he didn't claim the mason in the thread and I was masoned day four. It's likely either going to be 7v3 or 6v4 after night kills depending on if a modkill was a flip and assuming the mafia team still has two kp. Imagine if we had mislynched last cycle. Town would have had 5-6 players remaining. With layabout + cosmic + player X and 3-4 mafia players, depending on the modkills and if layabout or player X was originally scum, the third party and mafia team would control the lynch. Last cycle would have been GG for us if we didn't lynch cosmic. Yup, I agree and I do not regret it; but we can't afford any more mistakes the rest of the game. Tonight hasn't been particularly active at all and I'm not sure where to go from here in terms of lynch targets for tomorrow. Thoughts, kita? Especially since you thought cc/layabout were lying about being 3rd party. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Kita as for your above post, the issue for me essentially was that we could have afforded to leave cc alive for a little bit assuming we didn't mislynch and were absolutely certain to hit mafia. Of course they wouldn't have sided with town in the end, but at least it was possible to make him work for us given the right conditions. Since we didn't have any mafia to lynch though ultimately killing cc was the right decision but your premise for killing him was based on the fact that he was mafia, which he wasn't. Your cause to lynch cc and the outcome makes a lot of sense from a scum perspective as well, you see. Something about assuming they were lying just doesn't sit right with me. Layabout? Thoughts now that you're not 3rd party anymore? Christ it would be nice to hear from just about ANYBODY at this point. I'm currently preparing some thoughts of mine in case I'm killed tonight, though considering the way the last few nights have gone, I'll just get RBed since scum either think I'm useless or that they might still be able to get a mislynch onto me tomorrow. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
There are a lot of people who have not interacted with other people in the thread whatsoever either, just because BH-kita is one example does not make him scum. I don't see you having interacted with DYH at all despite you calling him scum. You also haven't interacted with Kenpachi. What does that mean? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
If I go down tonight, look into Zarepath. I found him fairly scummy early on in the game due to meta reasons which I will admit were very weak and rightly so. Upon reviewing his filter however a few things stood out to me: 1) Interaction between BH and Zarepath On March 19 2013 22:03 zarepath wrote: Since VE isn't really high priority today we can just wait a day and see if mafia kill two people or not and deal with that when we get there. I am still going through filters for a full list of reads. At first I consider BH's masoning of me to be really scummy but after reading the other convos he seems legit, so I'll be looking elsewhere. On March 17 2013 11:35 Wade Fell wrote: quoted for filter. wow it's a good thing i'm not a real smurf There are a LOT more soft defense posts where these came from. At one point BH goes so far as to call him a little scummy and says he's going to 'give him another chance.' Remember how BH told us he chose his targets as being townreads he wanted to look more into? Well he chose one of those 'townreads' AFTER he was outed by VE---Zarepath. I imagine that since he knew VE and GK were town and his pseudo-fake claim would look good if he could prove that he was telling the truth, he could kill two birds with one stone and start a mason log with Zare who was under suspicion at the time for D1 and D2, thus earning him towncred by association. Looking through the mason logs themselves, there was much talk at the time as to whether any of the logs were faked between BH/VE or BH/GK but no one mentioned the logs between Zare/BH at all. On March 21 2013 13:00 Wade Fell wrote: I'm just gonna leave this here so that zZzarepath gets off his ass + Show Spoiler + BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 03:16 AM ET (US) Edit Delete I'll keep it short and simple: this QT lasts until the end of the day. I think you're town, but there is a strong current of lynch against you. If you die, it happens, but the most important thing is to use your time alive as best you can. I won't be posting the logs of this QT except with your permission, or to save one of us from a lynch. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18055501 I like how you're thinking here- I like how you think in general, fearlessly and townie. I've updated my case against TPS, and I'd like to know who your top scumreads are, if TPS is among them and whether you'd be interested in collaborating with me to get him lynched. If we both share our though processes with each other, we can get better reads on each other. Do not claim your role to me. 2 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 03:31 AM ET (US) Edit Delete I'm heading to bed and will be back in thread in ~9-10 hours. 3 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 09:06 AM ET (US) Honestly, you were one of my scum reads until I read all this Messenger stuff, and after reading this QT and before reading the other ones, I thought this was highly suspect -- if you want help lynching your top scum read, why do you pick the townie with the least amount of credibility? Right now I'm going through all the filters to group my reads and present them to the thread, to hopefully get myself some more town cred. Hopefully I'll see something about TPS that makes me agree with you and we can work it out. I'll tell you my reads before I post them up there if you want. 4 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 10:44 AM ET (US) Yeah, I'm just not seeing TPS as scum. He's too assertive and active. There are plenty of other people who look way more suspect, like TestSubject, layabout, Mr. Wiggles, and Trance. 5 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 12:49 PM ET (US) Are you following the thread at all? They're pulling a quote from your logs that makes it look like the first line wasn't written in the Messenger QT. How did that happen? 6 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 05:00 PM ET (US) Edit Delete DrH was being a slow piece of crap and not setting up the QT between me and GK very quickly. He PMed me and told me to set it up myself and send him the link. I did so, but I he didn't reply (and neither did Oats) and GK didn't post in the thread, so I wrote up a post and stepped out. Later, DrH PMed the link to GK and we used the QT I set up. 7 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 05:06 PM ET (US) Edit Delete Also zare you don't seem to get the idea behind this QT. I'm probably one of the best scumhunters on TL. Although if I agree on reads I would appreciate your help, the purpose of this QT is to see what your thought process is like, and to get better insight into what you think. You are not my top town-read, you are just a townread I have that a lot of people think are scum. Since I'm already outed to the thread, it makes the most sense to mason you and try to learn more about your thought process. 8 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 07:17 PM ET (US) Yeah, no problem. I'm down with talking more except you were busy at the same time that I was free, so we couldn't really discuss things. I'm open to talk more later but nwo I have to go do some stuff. Ask me any private Q's you want in the meantime if you want. 9 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 09:34 PM ET (US) Edit Delete On March 20 2013 10:33 Coagulation wrote: the butt hurt in this thread is getting thick. I can hardly walk in it. assholes and elbows deep in butt hurt rofl 10 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 09:36 PM ET (US) Edit Delete so that slip from TPS about coag's alignment imo seals it for me. his last post or so has been more reasonable, but there's no good explanation for that slip other than "TPS is scum and knows coag is town". I'll be continuing to push him. I'm pretty sure I can convince people at this point 11 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 10:16 PM ET (US) Honestly, I think even if you're onto something, nobody will listen to you because it looks like you are tunneling him and you've been fairly abrasive with VE and TPS. I think it would go a long way if you were to list some other people you also thought to be scum, and mentioned why, and then explained why your scum read on TPS is still the best read. 12 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-19-2013 10:17 PM ET (US) I like the case on WoS a lot right now. His slip is pretty similar to TPS's slip, actually. I wonder if there's something there. 13 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 12:52 PM ET (US) Edit Delete looks like TPS has claimed cop with a blue check on WoS, which means we aren't lynching either of them today. VE seems to have claimed 3p so it's highly clear what we shoudl be doing here. 14 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 12:56 PM ET (US) Edit Delete er, vice-versa: WoS has claimed cop with a blue check on TPS so no need to lynch WoS, he'll be shot tonight anyways. TPS probably also. It's only a problem if they live for a few days. 15 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 01:08 PM ET (US) Yeah. So this third party stuff seems really sloppy on VE's end - I mean, why post the logs revealing that you are a traitor? It seems pretty stupid to me. I'm honestly not going to spend much more time worrying about VE until the night actions go crazy tonight. Scum feel no pressure if we just agree to lynch VE. 16 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 01:34 PM ET (US) Edit Delete The best solution imo is to vote for VE and aggressively FoS someone else with a big case. The fact that someone has claimed scum doesn't mean we stop the hunt 17 zarepathPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 01:39 PM ET (US) I guess... honestly I just wish he hadn't switched. Lynching third party players just seem like a waste of a lynch to me. Mafia has 2 KP; we need to get rid of them first, imo. Either way, I think most of town has now moved on to looking at other players, so as long as we're discussing potential scum, I suppose that's okay. 18 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 04:16 PM ET (US) Edit Delete now VE is like straight up making shit up 19 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 04:18 PM ET (US) Edit Delete So I am liking a testsubject lynch for tmr. He's been straight-up lurking to avoid confrontation, and now this OMGUS. I'm going to push him through the night in case I get shot. Is your read on him still null-scum, or have you updated it? 20 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 05:19 PM ET (US) Edit Delete glurio has definitely been actively lurking. He's posting a bit but mostly to sheep the town opinion (especially with the WoS situation). The fact that he's starting to weigh in and take sides now, after the claiming-dust has settled, imo is scummy. That being said, I'm not interested in lynching him at this moment, because my other scumreads are much more sure. Last night you noted a townread on glurio because of his willingness to check metas and defending you, but simply defending you shouldn't be the only basis for a twonread, and meta is pretty easy for scum to fake. Have you updated your read on him given his activity today or is it still the same? 21 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 07:13 PM ET (US) Edit Delete I've gone from feeling sure to feeling iffy on Vivax-- although I initially found him quite scummy, I now agree with what you said last night about him: he puts too much effort into way-too-shitty cases to be anything but a confused townie. Especially that thing "analysing" my timestamps from my logs. if he were scum he'd know there was nothing to find, but if he were town he'd be confused by the timestamps and think I fabricated them if he misread the timezones. Was he wrong and bone-headed? yeah, sure. But the _way_ he was wrong, and his mindset that's revealed, show him to be town. Is your read consistent with that? 22 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 09:16 PM ET (US) Edit Delete I will admit, also, that I feel a small amount of doubt on the VE lynch. Nothing I'd reveal in thread of course, but the point is, VE is at this point unreadable/compromised on everything. I have no idea what he's thinking or doing, or how his logic functions. Nothing he's done has made sense, and these upcoming "megacases" dont' have meaning. We have to flip him at this point if we want to know if anything he's ever said was true. so that doubt is meaningless but still :/ 23 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 09:30 PM ET (US) Edit Delete To clarify, I'm not saying "lynch VE regardless of alignment" but rather that he is surrounded by doubt and non-ransparency. The only way this could come about is that he is scum. The mindset just doesnt match up. 24 BlazinghandPerson was signed in when posted 03-20-2013 11:21 PM ET (US) Edit Delete Hey man this is kind of a critical time, it would be good to have someone to bounce ideas off of, or for you to at least let me know what you're thinking. I still stand by my initial meta read of GK, but he's under a lot of pressure. I don't think he's gonna get lynched, at least, but I have doubts now anyways. bleh Looking through these logs some behaviour is noteworthy: BH is just summarizing the thread and posting his opinions freely (so as to keep up the standard he has set in the earlier logs, but Zare posts no reads at all aside from a soft defense of BH himself. Not worrying about the timestamps at all as Vivax's and my earlier analysis of them essentially meant nothing, the log itself appears to be just for show. I'm not saying they faked the QT, rather that BH opened up a QT to Zare on purpose to give him towncred he would need for later in the game. 2) Scum rolecop evidence Zare throughout the thread has been constantly fishing for role names and blue information. On March 20 2013 23:42 zarepath wrote: Wait, so Wave, you can DT somebody and you learn their role and their alignment? On March 20 2013 04:51 zarepath wrote: VE, what is the name of your role? You never said, you just claimed Vet. On March 20 2013 23:59 zarepath wrote: It concerns me if a red Eye can get away with pretending to be blue. He's been incredibly vague his entire role claim, and his breadcrumb isn't actually a breadcrumb. He could have taken any sentence he said about TPS on N1 and said "I was going to say this phrase every time I checked someone." It's true his read on him changed, but his read changed on a lot of people (Wiggles) for seemingly no reason. This is an interesting post to come up with, especially considering our knowledge of BH having done exactly this BEFORE he flipped. Note that one of his very first posts in this game is him making excuses for future blue-hunting: On March 17 2013 06:54 zarepath wrote: I find setup speculation something that a scum is more likely to want to do immediately on Day 1 than something that town is likely to want to do, because it requires zero reads on anyone else and if it EVER contributes to finding scum, it does so in an incredibly oblique way very much down the road. I don't see DAy 1 setup speculation as being one of the better things that town can do on Day 1. I did mix up your tarot card comment with VE because he mentioned something about them later, I think. I looked through your filter, geript, and I liked your comment about coddling Coag and figured you were null for now. The VE quote at the end wasn't meant to suggest VE was scummy, but to suggest that he made a good point about sciberbia's contributions thus far. When I scum hunt, I look at each person individually, and so while I did put my suspicions on VE, the fact i'm suspicious of him doesn't mean I can't agree with his suspicions on someone else. My suspect list at the end of the post was all justified by the contents of that post -- I didn't like Coag's town claim then subsequent nothing (or anything he's done since), I didn't like VE's town claim or weird scumhunting cirlce idea that almost seemed glib in tone, and I didn't like Peashooter's eagerness to talk extensively about setup speculation in a game where we were even warned things could change around; the likeliness of us figuring out this setup on Day 1 with no info is incredibly low and, as i mentioned above, an easy discussion for scum to participate in without giving themselves away, and I didn't like (as VE noted) sciberbia's certainty that people weren't scum. It's true my post didn't lead to a full conclusive scum read and vote on anybody, but it's worthwhile to post my suspicions right now, and especially at a point in the day when I knew I'd be gone for a while. Sorry it didn't flow better for you, and hopefully this clears up what your concerns were. This is to be sure that he can go about his not-so-subtle business of blue-sniping without seeming hypocritical. 'Guys, no setup speculation Day 1, it's scummy! After that it's k!' 3) Miscellaneous On March 26 2013 00:42 zarepath wrote: EBWOP: Other strikes against layabout: pushing for Mr. Wiggles lynch hard yesterday, the majority of his pressure on VE being him simply re-quoting Ace's points for lynching VE, and really, this series of quotes needs to be looked at: + Show Spoiler + On March 20 2013 08:27 layabout wrote: It's normal so we have a rough idea, i think in the mafia podcast drh mentioned wanting to use hidden communication roles Okay, so this is a setup speculation-based argument, not exactly the greatest for forming reads to begin with. if BH is the scum mason and can mason people all the time why would town's only mason be grey's role? Things get confusing here. He enters the hypothetical, essentially stating that BH can only be the scum mason if there is another town mason. Think about that argument for a second, and the number of assumptions that it's based on, and remember that layabout is going out of his way to say this IMMEDIATELY after stating that he doesn't want to look at BH right now. Keir was saying that he thinks they will be balanced am i am inclined to agree. So i think it's more likely that his role belongs to town. The very beginning of this sentence has a minor tell -- he doesn't just say that he thinks mason roles will be balanced, he has to frame it within what someone else has already said -- someone who has already flipped town. But what he's actually saying doesn't make a lot of sense, either. He's assuming that there will be a balanced number of mason roles, and that therefore his role is more likely to belong to town. But if mason roles were balanced, wouldn't that mean that there must be another mafia mason role somewhere that layabout must know about in order for BH to more likely be town? His conclusion seems to be the opposite of the logic he just presented us. Now, you can say, "oh, he just miscommunicated, or made a mistake." If you make a mistake, it is much more likely to be on the logical side of your argument than it is on the actual conclusion side. You don't say that BH is more likely to be town as an accident -- there must be a reason for that, and that reason is not anywhere in this post. I think the reason could be found more in the motivations that drive layabout than in any argument that he's presented. BH's defense of GK was scummy. His filter looks quite normal for him, i tend to skim his posts. So if BH is more likely to be town, why is this statement here? It seems that he still feels like he hasn't produced enough of a read for whoever asked him whether he thought BH was scummy or not, and so he feels compelled to say something more. But this statement reveals that layabout's read of BH has exactly no bearing on his argument that BH is town -- he admits something scummy about BH that I don't think anybody actually cares about, but then tempers that with the statement that BH's filter looks NORMAL, ie, indescript, not worth looking into. And then the final statement he makes, the fact that layabout hasn't actually thoroughly read BH's filter, makes this entire post looks like the most awkward possible dance to avoid saying anything concrete about BH at all. It looks fueled by a motivation to clear himself of any statement about BH's actual scumminess or towniness, an admission that he hasn't given serious thought to a person he is spending a serious amount of time and effort talking about, and an attempt to drive the discussion towards setup and role speculation and away from filter content and rational argument. I think this is an incredibly scummy post, and I think he knew it, too, which is why he posted a follow-up which clarified his statement into "BH might be scum if there is another town mason." But whether that's what layabout meant to say in the first place or not doesn't matter; the confusion and mistakes in this post I've dissected above reveal the motivations and priorities of layabout, and those motivations and priorities are SCUM. ##vote: layabout Apparently Zare forgot a few things about his own play while making a case against layabout. He himself pushed pretty hard for a Wriggles lynch early in the game as seen here On March 20 2013 01:46 zarepath wrote: Mr. Wiggles. He refuses to present reads, and hasn't had a read on anyone since the GM flip. But then immediately turns on me when I decide to vote him after changing my read on him. I also really don't like this recent post. On March 26 2013 21:59 zarepath wrote: btw, implicit in my post above is that I don't give a lot of credence to the kitaman case, although I'll give it another read for kicks When it was kitaman's case against me originally that gave me a townread on him Zare had no problem jumping aboard the bandwagon but now he does not even bother to give it a look? IMPORTANT: Looking through Zare's posts in general I have actually found a lot of his posting to be quite good, which may or may not contradict a lot of the scumminess I have brought up. I am making this post in case I do go down tonight urging people to have at least have a look into him again as he has escaped suspicion for quite a while. Geript you've had a scumread on him basically all game (from what I've read in your filter) so I'd like to hear your input on this. There may be some credence that can be lent to a meta case against him but I'm not 100% sure of this case unless I can see some strong evidence within his posting itself which I have been admittedly weak at analysis this game, hence all of the sheeping in my voting patterns (hell, everyone's analysis has been weak or we wouldn't be in this position). I will be around for much of the day tomorrow as we will be at LYLO and I do not want to lose this game; I expect other townies to be here to discuss as well. | ||
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