EPTIn the mislynching of GreyMist.
The Game [N] - Page 13
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
In the mislynching of GreyMist. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
I will say this much, he hasn't contributed a great deal today, but then again nobody really has. DP you said you'd be digging through filters when you returned. Got anything yet? I think most of the town is really keen to just see Wriggles go down red. There's been a lot of talk against cc as well but I'm just not seeing it as strongly as most people.... I can't see my D4 lynch candidate being anyone but glurio. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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WaveofShadow
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On March 25 2013 10:48 geript wrote: @Kenpachi What's your stance on WoS? Do you believe the claim? I'm pretty sure almost everyone believes my claim right now but you. If you're really town Geript, just think back to the games we've played together and ask yourself what makes the most sense based on my play this game and my past play. I'm going to have a look into cosmiccomics right now and try and write up that case on glurio as well, though I must admit my confidence has been shaken since Wiggles flipped town. I don't feel good about our chances this game at all. Collectively we as a town have been playing like absolute balls, and most of the town flips thus far are partly to blame for it as well. If we lose 3 more townies tonight I'm pretty sure we're fucked. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 25 2013 12:16 cosmicomics wrote: You mean 2? Or do you have a different interpretation of last nights KP? No I mean if we lose 3 townies. 2 KP is given considering mafia but I still worry about 3rd party presence. I think at this point if we lose only 2 tonight then 3rd arty probably doesn't KP despite whatever recruitment power they might have; withholding KP as 3rd party doesn't make sense this far in. In any case all of that is just speculation and isn't important right now considering we can't even hunt scum. Cosmic you think kita is scum and I think he's town. Care to elaborate? I'm honestly not so certain of my reads anymore considering how the game has gone thus far. Really wish I could actually fucking use my night action. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
Cosmic (bullet point style) - Has initial town-read on GK but eventually flips his stance on him as the later days progress. If he was scum he could have easily kept his town stance to appear innocent rather than attempt to apologize it alter, drawing more attention to himself. A little WIFOM-y but whatever. -Overall hasn't done a great deal that has seemed obviously scum-motivated, but there has been a lot of 'I'm going to do this' from him which he never does: (look into TPS, look into me, address all the cases made against him---HE HAS NOT DONE THIS AT ALL) I don't have a strong read on him either way - as of right now he looks null to me. I'm going to do a massive re-read of the thread and assuming I live through the night I will posting stronger reads tomorrow.I am aware I've promised this for a while but I haven't had much time until recently. I'm going to be looking into zare again as I've forgotten about him for a while and something cosmic said made me think about BH's mason targets.... | ||
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WaveofShadow
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DP your mention of the loss of confidence forcing a re-read is exactly where I'm at right now. I'm not sure the posts by glurio and zare mean anything but since I'll be looking into the both of them for tomorrow I'll keep it in mind. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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As I promised I will be re-reading and looking into everyone; specifically zare and glurio today. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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WaveofShadow
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-Vote counts are completely inconclusive. Confirmed townies voting for other confirmed townies on wagons started by confirmed townies. I can't see any patterns whatsoever even based on vote timings so scum are doing a kickass job of blending in. -Trying to go into this with a fresh read has given me null on both glurio and zarepath. Meta analysis is inconclusive and reads based on activity this game are completely useless since many of our mislynches have been partially based on inactivity. Those people who have been mislynched by us for the most part just don't care, and we've gotten ourselves into a horrible rut because of it. I'm going to continue my read-through and I refuse to give up until I have something concrete to present. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 26 2013 01:13 TestSubject893 wrote: VE is literally the worst person you could have checked. This is all too much to let slide. You've played exactly like a scum would if they fake claimed, so if you're town you've only got yourself to blame for us mislynching today. ##Vote: WaveofShadow We're killing cosicomics tomorrow if we have it my way. As an aside, I think that The Mirror must be mafia aligned since they clearly didn't fear that VE was perma-bulletproof like the logs implied. Yeah, we won't be lynching me today. You say VE is the worst target yet it hasn't mattered since N1 because I've been perma-roleblocked. Why would I bother admitting to you my target if I was scum and inviting these kinds of suspicions towards me? I didn't have to give you my targets either night, I could have just said I was roleblocked and avoided any sort of attention. (Hint: I'm trying to give you guys INFORMATION, however useful or not it may be.) Oh yeah and not to mention the fact that DrH literally read the post you quoted and remembered that he forgot to send me a night/roleblock PM. Totally lying. Anyway, back to my reading failure. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 26 2013 01:19 zarepath wrote: Yeah, why did you want to get a read on VE? What was your reasoning for that, WoS? Oh, why? Because I was sick of him constantly being at the back of everyone's minds as to whether to start voting for him during the day or not; I was hoping to clear it up one way or the other so we could focus elsewhere and be sure of him. My other target would have been Coag but that would have been a failure as well as you can see. I've already explained my rationale as to night targets; I'm trying to pick people who I view as being out of the spotlight for possible framing/targeting but apparently I've been fairly wrong thus far. Going to have to change my targeting methods, but as I've said it probably won't matter because if we by some miracle manage to hit the scum RB today then I'm dead at night. My worst fear (again, I've stated all of this before, just look into my filter) is that my N1 rolecheck went into some sort of 3rd party/mafia rolecheck immunity in TPS (which would explain his complete lack of presence all game aside from one case that helped to mislynch someone, AND the fact that mafia refuse to NK a confirmed townie). This would essentially make my role do more harm than good all frigging game which would make me incredibly depressed. Believe what you want to believe at this point; I've laid out enough evidence to show you guys that I'm town and I am certainly not going to spend another day defending myself when I haven't contributed anything useful to the game thus far due to my own failures. If you do decide to change your mind and lynch me zare, then go ahead, but then I wouldn't understand what the point of your massive post on layabout was if it's this easy to misdirect you. TestSubject trying to blame the mislynch on me is all well and good; it's just as easy to blame every mislynch we've had so far on the victims, but in the end it's the entire town's fault for the atmosphere we've had so far, including said victims. I'm going to continue my reading throughout the day, but let it be known I will not be defending myself any further, only attempting to contribute to scum-reads. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
I didn't suggest he was blue; I was confused as to the result of my night check because it gave me back a green result and a name when I was only expecting the name. Then I was wondering if for whatever reasoning it only gave me alignment; something like giving a 'town-aligned' result to a check on a blue role but then I realized that wouldn't make sense given the description of my role. It's this fact that makes me worry about TPS if only because I could see 'The Fool' being returned as a result to a Godfather-type (or 3P) check. The only reasons I can see for TPS playing the way he has thus far are: a) he has been outed as confirmed townie so he doesn't give a shit anymore - I don't believe this is true because his play hasn't exactly changed since he was outed; hell he even posted that massive case on Ace after he was outed. b) He DOES have some sort of check-immunity c) Like much of the rest of town this game, he never gave a shit to begin with. All of these options suck but due to KISS, I'm forced to believe a/c because in every game I've played so far I haven't seen anything too crazy yet and all of my conspiracy theories thus far have been wrong. I'm still treating him as confirmed town and moving on to Ryu. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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I have a town read on him. I can't see scum pushing his reads as far as he has (DP/VE). The only theoretical reason I could see for Ryu so aggressively pushing VE (which, as you'll remember Ace did as well and was town) from a scum perspective would be if scum actually was worried about some sort 3rd-party recruiter having gotten to him. Again, KISS forces me to believe this is not the case (which doesn't explain the presence of The Mirror but whatever) so I am inclined to believe Ryu was not afraid of being seen as one of the main proponents of a lynch on VE, especially since BH was already pushing him so hard. Ryu if you're around I'd like to hear your thoughts on DP. Has anything changed in your read since yesterday? Also mebbe thoughts on the recent cases on me/cc/layabout? | ||
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WaveofShadow
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+ Show Spoiler + I wanted to assume Trancestorm was scum since we didn't get a flip on his modkill but the fact that there's still 2 KP at night probably means he wasn't. Either way, if we eliminate a scum today then scum KP goes down to 1. It definitely is not LYLO yet: Assuming a 3rd party (just for shits): 8-4-1 If we don't lynch today it becomes 5-4-1 after night kills. We can technically come back from that, but next day will be LYLO if we mislynch I believe. Is that math right? (Also if there is no 3rd party I think we're in better shape.) | ||
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WaveofShadow
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I'm not sure if I'm going to be around enough to finish my re-read before later but as it stands right now I'm still going with kita and will be voting cc in case I'm not back in enough time to properly address reason to a vote. Aside from zare's points against layabout kita's case makes the most sense, as have most of his cases during the game. I glanced over the past few pages quickly and I can say this much: Zare and geript you are putting way too much thought into things that are probably a lot more obvious then you're making them seem. Vote: Cosmiccomics | ||
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WaveofShadow
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I'm actually pretty sure I did say it at some point this game, but I don't have time to read through my own filter right now. I just found out I WILL be back with enough time to post (hopefully quite a bit, but not sure yet) before flip. Going to keep my vote on cc, but I have an updated scumread on someone else that will hopefully be worth looking into for next day. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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WHOA. Alright so coming back to this it's clear that me diving into a new developing scumread will have to wait because it's just going to derail discussion. For now until we figure out what's up, Unvote: Cosmicomics Alright were there any outstanding questions people had for me just in case I'm getting in the way of a clear lynch target? Oh and I have a really hard time believing kita is scum, but I'll look into it. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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I find the claim fairly believable actually since I don't see scum getting two mason roles while we only get one. Layabout does your role have a name as well? And as far as a kita lynch goes, it doesn't feel good to me at all...I gotta look into this. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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Can you confirm that you die if cosmic does, because that's not what your last post makes it seem like. Reading through kita's filter I've noticed that aside from myself, glurio and the recent business with cosmic, every single case that kita has made has been against townies, and very early on as well. Now considering how misdirected we have all been this game I'm not sure if that means anything, especially since I have sheeped onto all of the mislynches eventually as well (except Wriggles, I claim partial responsibility for that as I wanted him dead for ages), but I wasn't the one creating the cases.... There's still time. This is going to be a really hard one for me because I have had a huge townread on kita ever since his case on me, and I've had a townread on DP for much of the game as well. Also interesting you've mentioned BH's effect on the game, DP, because I don't think we're done looking into that..... | ||
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