The Game [N] - Page 12

On March 22 2013 04:32 Coagulation wrote:
I would love it if I was DT checked so I could bitch slap vivax with the results. Just saying.

On March 22 2013 05:14 goodkarma wrote:


Why would you try to direct a DT check on yourself? Even if you check out it doesn't mean you're necessarily town. You could have a godfather mechanic to your role as scum. And considering you want to be checked, I'd argue it's likely you're either town or some kind of godfather role.

DT check should be reserved for scum suspects that are seriously being considered for being lynched. Further, it's good to check someone who's looking like scum who's historically actually going to be of use to town if he's town. Would Coag be that beneficial to town if he were to be DT checked and determined to likely be town? Not really...

On March 22 2013 10:05 VisceraEyes wrote:
I have not admitted to being third party. Just throwing that out there. And to be fair, I'm advocating a vig shot on me over a lynch of me. I would prefer if lynches hit scum. Just sayin.

On March 22 2013 06:02 WaveofShadow wrote:
GK/Wiggles/glurio/TS/+1
scumteam

On March 22 2013 22:31 glurio wrote:
Wrong about GK, testsubject and me.
You've got quite the theme going there.

And my single post is probably gonna be more useful than whatever you write this entire cycle if you go on like this.

On March 22 2013 08:08 Coagulation wrote:
remove wade fell and add wiggles and they are acceptable. I would probably add ryu and take out zerap also.

BH is town, xxxx is town, VE is a clown.....etc

On March 23 2013 00:12 zarepath wrote:


This what you are looking for WoS?

On March 23 2013 06:06 Kenpachi wrote:
I think i should organize myself for once. None of these should be surprising, they're pretty agreeable.
Town
testsubject###
Teepeeshooter
waveofshadow
coagulation

Mafia
Wiggles
DarthPunk
zarepath (intuitive)

My lynch vote for today is Mr. Wiggles. Why? simple, he feigned usefulness here and there and here some more. I posted about his chainlink of questions and in general, he is playing like mafioso wiggles. Is there anything else for me to say WAVEOFSHADOW?

On March 23 2013 08:10 DoYouHas wrote:
Yeah... I'm pretty confident that DP is actually town. Unlike Wiggles, DP actually looks better for the BH flip. He has more than a few interactions with BH that seem very genuine. The way he defends himself is solid, the way he pursued his WoS suspicion but then is ready to drop it after WoS's claim. The way he interacted with Scib and went after layabout. Everything reads pretty townie.

@Kenpachi - What are your reasons for having DP as one of your top scum reads?

On March 23 2013 18:10 geript wrote:
Here's my problem with WoS: where did the roleblock go night 1? Nobody claimed one. I don't think VE would be alive if he had been roleblocked. That leaves 4 options a scum JOAT, a buried roleblock on Keirethi, an unclaimed roleblock on the 3P or WoS is lying.
1. A scum JOAT seems exceptionally unlikely to me as using the role for extra KP makes the most sense to me.
2. Burying a roleblock on Keiethi makes no sense to me as, if VE is blue, VE is likelier to better use his role having played D1 instead of playing catchup.
3. An unclaimed Roleblock on 3P seems insane to me. It would explain only 2 NK N1. However, if we believe Test is a Vig and shot BH, then Vivax likely shot GK and 3P lacks KP which would mean that there's no reason to not claim the roleblock. Ther's an outside shot that Twst is 3P which explains the vig claim and the BH push against him, but that would be a total mindfuck and doesn't seem consistent with his play.
4. WoS is lying and is scum. A scum role checker would also help explain the Vivax hit (if you assume that we're off base on CC/wiggles).

I'm traveling until late today and won't likely be able to post or read for 12 hours.

On March 23 2013 18:10 geript wrote:
Here's my problem with WoS: where did the roleblock go night 1? Nobody claimed one. I don't think VE would be alive if he had been roleblocked. That leaves 4 options a scum JOAT, a buried roleblock on Keirethi, an unclaimed roleblock on the 3P or WoS is lying.
1. A scum JOAT seems exceptionally unlikely to me as using the role for extra KP makes the most sense to me.
2. Burying a roleblock on Keiethi makes no sense to me as, if VE is blue, VE is likelier to better use his role having played D1 instead of playing catchup.
3. An unclaimed Roleblock on 3P seems insane to me. It would explain only 2 NK N1. However, if we believe Test is a Vig and shot BH, then Vivax likely shot GK and 3P lacks KP which would mean that there's no reason to not claim the roleblock. Ther's an outside shot that Twst is 3P which explains the vig claim and the BH push against him, but that would be a total mindfuck and doesn't seem consistent with his play.
4. WoS is lying and is scum. A scum role checker would also help explain the Vivax hit (if you assume that we're off base on CC/wiggles).

I'm traveling until late today and won't likely be able to post or read for 12 hours.

On March 24 2013 02:44 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Just what do you think you're doing, Town? Town, I really think I'm entitled to an answer to that question. I know everything hasn't been quite right with me, but I can assure you now, very confidently, that it's going to be all right again. I feel much better now. I really do. Look, Town, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.

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Consolidated reads:

Not Mafia Reads (Probably wrong about a couple):

ThePeaShooter: I read this guy as town earlier, and I still do. Nothing he has done has caused me to need to change my read since then. There's also supposedly a DT check on the guy, which is ok.

layabout: I had initially read layabout as mostly asking questions and not really doing too much, so I was leaning scum on him. I looked into a couple of his past games though, and this is how he typically seems to play. His play since about halfway through Day 2 though has improved and made me think he's much more likely to be town.

Coagulation: I read him as town. His play to me suggests that he's invested in what's best for town, and is trying to help. Therefore, he reads as being likely to be town to me.

Ryu Suzaku: His posts seem very organic to me, and he's been posting his thoughts in the thread. That gets me to lean towards him not being scum. He hasn't had a great presence in thread though, so you might need to pressure him or interact with him more in thread to get a better read for late game.

Kenpachi: I find Kenpachi hard to read normally. This game though, it feels like he's been sharing his reads pretty openly, and he cares what happens to town. He doesn't have much presence or weight behind him though, so he's been pretty ineffectual. I'm leaning not scum on him right now, but like I said, he's hard to read, so take it with a grain of salt.

testsubject: He claimed the hit on BH. There hasn't been a counter claim, and the KP doesn't work out any way that would give scum a possible claim or reason to claim. That leads me to believe his claim is truthful, and therefore he's town for now.

VE: Claimed that he took a hit night 1. His play hasn't made him look clearly town though, and I'm quite unsure of what his alignment is based on only behaviour. He had a big fight with Wade though, who flipped scum, so I think that's a point in his favour. I'd leave him out of potential mafia suspects for now, but I don't think he's necessarily someone town wants around endgame unless he really steps up his play so that it's obvious he's town. Otherwise he's too hard to read.

WaveofShadow: He claimed detective, and supposedly got a read on TPS night 1, and nothing night 2. My behaviour read wasn't towards town before the claim though. Mechanics suggest he's town based on the claim, and Ace read him as town too. Look into him again if he's alive end game though.

Note:

If there actually are any third parties in the game or the game goes very late, don't forget to look into the people who are read as town mostly because of roleclaims. Roleclaims aren't irrefutable, and don't make someone confirmed.

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Pool of harder to read people (scum in here):
glurio, zarepath, Trancestorm, cosmicomics, DoYouHas, Darthpunk, geript

Trancestorm: He asked for a replacement and said he's not playing anymore. I wouldn't spend too much effort on him until he gets replaced. Otherwise, he's gonna be modkilled. For what it's worth, he seems like he's just a bit of a sheep more than scum. Not too sure though.

Cosmicomics: Looking at him again, I'm reading him somewhat as scum. My first initial read was new town, but reading a little more closely, it looks more scum motivated. He tunnels VE, which gives him something of an excuse for making "helpful" looking posts. Then, he makes a case on Good Karma based on only his reaction to the Ace flip, which would set him up nicely for later days. He also throws a vote on me without any real justification today. That leads me to think he's more likely to be scum than town.

Zarepath: I'm leaning more on the scum side for him right now. He posts a lot of fluff, a lot of summarizing or what's happening in the thread, not really pushing his cases too hard. He's recently been saying we need to do a lot of analysis without posting any of his own, really. He's been tunneling Cosmicomics for a while, and is voting him today. I don't find that contradictory to my read, because firstly, Cosmicomics has not once responded to Zarepath's case that I can find. That seems really weird to me, because if Zarepath was town, I don't think Cosmicomics would just sit around while a townie tunneled him. If it's his team mate, though, it makes more sense, and it makes sense he's voting him today, because then he won't be on the townie wagon of the day.

Glurio: This guy just seems to be following his own tune. His reads are meandering and he seems to just be doing his own thing. I read this as town, because he's not very directed, and has been mostly left alone by others. His posts show an easy to follow train of thought that also gets me to lean towards town on him.

Darthpunk: I lean towards scum on him. I find it hard to go back through his posts, because there's way too many to get a coherent picture. His reaction to the Ace lynch gets me to think he's scum though.

He says he doesn't want to lynch Ace, but does it anyways, making it so that a last minute vote on VE is less likely to happen. He says he likes the Ace lynch better than the VE lynch. Then, he shifts blame onto VE and insinuates he's scum based on how he acted leading up to the lynch. However, that was exactly the same as how VE had acted when DP voted. So, this looks pretty scummy to me. You make a vote to ensure the Ace lynch, and say you like it better than a VE lynch, then you make a post calling out VE because he tunneled Ace, but only after Ace flipped town, and after you said you didn't like the VE lynch.

DoYouHas: I lean towards town on him. His posts show a decent town mindset. His shifts in reads seem organic, and not like they're being motivated as much by what's happening in the thread. This gets me to lean towards town on him.

Geript: I'm sort of null on him. He has a decent amount of setup speculation and stuff in his posts that reads as null. He seems like he's interacting decently with the thread. For someone with a lot of posts though, I haven't really noticed him at all this game, so that puts me off a bit. Someone to look more closely at in the future or pressure.

I'll admit I haven't read that closely into DoYouHas, Geript and DP, because they've had low thread presence so I haven't noticed them that much while just reading the thread normally, and they have a ton of posts so that makes it hard to go back and read through them. So, these three reads are based more on skims of their filters and what stuck out to me. The DP things sticks out quite badly as scummy though, so I feel it would be enough to use for additional pressure regardless of what else he's done. I think it's a pretty big slip.

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People to really watch out for:

Kitaman:

Kita's play has actually been pretty passive. He's made cases, but has never really pushed them that much. Day 1, he was going after GoodKarma, couldn't get traction, and just sort of went, "Oh well, I'll vote for GreY then I guess", with only a line of explanation that doesn't even say he's scummy. The same thing happened on Day 2, where he made a case on WaveofShadow, but it was deflected by him claiming DT. So, he just votes for me, but doesn't really make too big of a push and only had a couple posts where he doesn't even strongly call me scum:


He uses very neutral language, saying he'd support the lynch, and that he'd be willing to vote if there's enough votes. He says he didn't like one thing I did, and then finally votes me not because he says he thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not around. For someone he wants to kill, and who he voted for, he does a good job of not really explaining his read or of ever calling me scum. He did the same thing with the GreYMisT vote. He doesn't push his reads strongly, he doesn't call the people he switches to later scum, and he just votes on whatever the wagon is at the end of the day

His passive play combined with the lack of thread interaction and seeming apathy towards the lynch leads me to believe he doesn't have town's best interests in mind, and is scum.

Town should watch out for him, because his posts are nicely structured and he makes nice "cases" on people that he doesn't end up pushing. So, there will probably be people who'd oppose killing him based on the form of his posts rather than the content.

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I agree that I need to die. I am a liability in late game because I've been playing badly and my scum reads have been shit so far. I need to get shot though, not lynched, because a lynch on me is wasted as I have no probability of flipping scum. I thought someone might shoot me Night 2, but no one did.

I don't like the way the Day has gone so far, because everyone is sitting on their hands and not talking because they think I'm scum. I find that pretty dumb, because you're basically giving mafia a free round of kills.

If you're going to lynch me, leave your vote on me, but at least talk about who else you think is scum, because I am going to flip green. If you don't talk, you're completely wasting your time.

I'm going to vote Cosmicomics because he is the only alternative wagon to me, and I read him as more likely to be scum than town.

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If I end up getting lynched, I apologize for my poor reads, and want to say, good luck, and have fun.

Same thing with half your points about the Ace case. The first half of the cycle, I was waiting for Ace to post. How could I make a case based on Ace not following through with his promises and trying to get the town away from scumhunting earlier in the cycle, when he had just replaced in that night? That would be idiotic, so how's it part of your case?