EPTinches from the duel button. Claiming town on that basis is completely bullshit.
This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 8
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
yamato77
11589 Posts
inches from the duel button. Claiming town on that basis is completely bullshit. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
You guys are most likely right about him, and I feel like Sylencia is most likely town of the two. While lurky and useless is Syl's town meta, it is not Dieno's so he can die. As a side note I'm pretty sure Hapa is mafia, now, and much less sure of Acro. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 02 2013 01:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Yamato, actually why is Hapa scum more than before? IMO he has only gotten townier. I would like to hear you about it though. Activity level, effort in the game, concern with lynch periods. All of it is low for town Hapa. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
Dieno needs to die. If he's not mafia, I will personally be surprised at how little effort he has put into this game. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
I'll duel tomorrow and prove it. Give me Acro, I will dismantle him. Hapa, too. I think they are the likely mafia here. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
Tomorrow I find mafia, guaranteed. Too tired/drunk to do analysis tonight. Tomorrow, before the deadline and after, I will be dropping my reads on the players left in the game. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
If I'm mafia, why do I make the case at night, see people generally agree with it, but then not follow through, and instead tell my weakest teammate to call a duel instead? It doesn't make much sense. Mafia is weak/not here. I no longer think Acro is truly mafia unless Hapa is not, but I will explain that tomorrow. Hapa is the best fit, IMO, to the rest of this mafia team. It's figuring out the last member that might prove difficult. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
This is hilarious. You guys kill my motivation to play. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
But whatever, tomorrow at dawn I will duel Hapa and we can lynch mafia. You guys are silly and think I'm mafia, so I'll duel someone and you can lynch me if it pleases you. I'm getting tired of arguing with people anyway. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
When all they did all game was argue at me that I shouldn't duel the people I wanted lynched So let's do it Balls out. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
In that time, I will build my case on Hapa and provide an analysed read of everyone in the game | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
What I know of Snarfs comes from my experience playing against him in Nomination, where he was mafia and I was town. In that game, he was lurky, tunnelish, and detached from town. He wasn't aggressive in pursuit of his reads, and was overall ridiculously easy to catch. His mafia play is not strong, and the strongest tell is how little he cared about what was going on in the game. So let's have a look at his filter and compare, does this Snarfs seem like the mafia Snarfs from last game, and if not, what tells can we pick up on to ascertain his alignment? On February 26 2013 04:38 Snarfs wrote: Update: Up to page 20 now and I would kill Hapa solely based on his reasoning for backing off on iamp. Didn't make any sense (others have said it) because iamp didn't change at all. Also, I didn't like this line from thrawn: It seems like a really weird mindset. Scared to attack... should be more like "pressure" or why would you back off... not "scared to attack" - that seems to be attempting to incite Oats as opposed to get a read on him. full quote: Going through last few pages now. His first analysis post of the game, and indeed one of the first few posts in his filter. Here he immediately displays traits that conflict with my view of his mafia play. He is scumhunting early, and on many different people. What we need to know for the future is how he pushes those reads. On February 26 2013 04:50 Snarfs wrote: Also adding this so I don't forget later: Right up until page 20 when a few more people showed up in the game, lots of talk was on Hapa but Corazon completely ignored that discussion and went after Oats, if I recall correctly. I'm a little rusty on how to interpret that, but it seemed noteworthy. On February 26 2013 05:07 Snarfs wrote: And I'm surprised that your response to me doesn't include thoughts on hapa. Please entertain me? On February 26 2013 05:35 Snarfs wrote: Yea, I saw that. It just felt weird when hapa was a big focus that you didn't mention him at the time (other than to say you were going to look into it) so I made a note of it. Since marv and yamato seem pretty happy with you so far though, I'm not going to really push you on this one since it's not a big priority and would probably just derail things. As I said, just making a note of things. This is how he follows his read on Corazon. While one may interpret this as scum wavering in his reads, I think it is quite clear what he was considering and why. It also shows townie traits in that he is not tunneling in his reads as he was last game, and is interacting with town on a consistent enough basis to be believable in changing his reads. On February 26 2013 07:40 Snarfs wrote: As of now, I'd support a Keirathi/Hapa duel. I need to read more from thrawn as it's still just a weird feeling about him, nothing concrete. I haven't read yamato's case on him yet, it was a bit too long and I didn't have time. I agree Dein also looks flimsy but these two are my biggest concerns. Especially Keirathi's "catch up on the thread" followed by essentially mimicing + buddying marv: Here he supports his Hapa read, and provides his read on Keirathi, with about as much analysis as was available to him. While mafia did indeed bus Keirathi somewhat, it is still noteworthy that he takes his time to justify this read instead of just throwing it out there. It's solid, town play, and nothing at all that indicates a mafia bus. On February 26 2013 08:20 Snarfs wrote: Keirathi's filter is shorter and easier to pick things out of. He made it clear he was going to look at the thread and perform analysis, but then didn't when noone pushed him for it. I guess, like marv said though, he could just be away... just the fact that he took time to create that one kinda terrible post though... I dunno, I don't like it. It was actually thrawn's swap between thinking iamp was scum then not scum then back to scum that I kinda thought was indecisive and towny... not well thought-out and planned like I'd expect from mafia. Clarity, openness, not tunneled. These types of posts, and the ones before, led to my town read on Snarfs. This is how I formed my early opinion of him, and we'll see how that play develops in the lynch cycles. On February 27 2013 04:38 Snarfs wrote: I think that people are being blinded by the unexpectedness of Adam's action (specifically Yamato and Corazon). Yes, it was rash. But it was rash for both town and scum. Plus, look at town sentiment at the time the duel was called. At the time of his action it felt like people wanted to see Keir hang. Then, you have Keir essentially egging Adam on, by saying things like Adam would never have to prove that he was serious about dueling people. None of this changes the fact that until Keir was called out for his terrible night 0 play, he was one of the scummiest. He had claimed he was going to catch up with the thread and all he came back with was essentially an echo of marv. I'm sticking with my own read on this one. Adam looked like he was someone who could be egged on from his first statement and I think Keir took advantage of that. That being said, I'm not laying my vote down right now. We need all the discussion time we can get so let's not be too quick to hit that majority. Hold it against me though, if I come back and vote Adam without any reasoning. Here's his stance on the day 1 duel. Adam more likely town, Keirathi more likely scum, backing up his read from earlier. He also takes the time to argue against my reaction to Adam, which is a townie thing to do at this time, as mafia have nothing to gain from asserting that an aggressive player like me is going about things incorrectly. Really, this post reeks of townieness. The lack of a vote is not enough to discredit his real stance. On February 27 2013 04:57 Snarfs wrote: Actually, the more I think of it, the more opposed I am. Why would we kill two people when almost assuredly one is not scum. We just need to be better town than to resort to double lynch. Plus, he's not an idiot. Also of note is his interaction with me about his thought process on the Sylencia/Keirathi/Adam dynamic: On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote: You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. Aggressiveness, obvious emotional behavior. Here again, I reaffirmed my town read on Snarfs, because this is not how mafia react in general. These are town tells. Through day 1, and after the duel, there is ZERO reason to think he's mafia, and all the reasons in the world to think him town. His vote was also a turning point in the day, as after that Keirathi got lynched rather quickly. So how does this go on to day 2? QUOTE]On March 01 2013 18:04 Snarfs wrote: Ya. I think Dieno's the right lynch here. I want to hear more from Sylencia, but Dieno's case on him just seems way too fake. Pretty much everything Dieno's said seems fake.[/QUOTE] Again, he's on the mafia wagon very early in the day. There's no reason to think he's mafia aside from his activity which apparently stems from what seem to be legitimate time constraints. Any case on him will go nowhere, because Snarfs is almost assuredly town. That's all there is to that. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
Someone shoot me a name. I'm having problems picking people. I'm saving Hapa for last, so anyone else is fine. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
I have never played with him before, and I generally don't read games from people I didn't play in, so meta is no part of my read on Zare, it's all on tells/reads. His early play is all tunnel, all Oats, all the time. It's not worth diving into because someone from either alignment could pick on Oats, when he is either alignment, and drum up enough believable shit to seem like scumhunting. So it's all basically not alignment indicative. On February 26 2013 01:54 zarepath wrote: Yamato's thoughts on Hapa: Yamato's point that Hapa calls Cora out for "woe is me" is a null point at best, imo. Others (Sylencia) railed on him for it, Hapa encouraged him to play better. However, Hapa calling out Cora for trying to be a dick to Sylencia does seem a little unnecessary... to be honest, if I were scum, I would be stoking Cora's coals all game, and I can see Hapa's interactions with Cora being somewhat like that. However, the quote Yamato pulls where he calls out Oats for his two reads (Cora/Mav) seemed like a pretty pro-town response. I find Thrawn's switch on iamp to be much more interesting and in a much higher need of justification. After Yamato calls him out, Thrawn doesn't continue to pursue iamp but instead switches to Acro, based off of agreeing with someone else. His points about Acro's Hapa/Thrawn dichotomy aren't strong points (as Marv pointed out). Honestly, far scummier to me than either of these is Sylencia. While it's true our contributions are certainly in the same range right now, I wasn't here at all yesterday, while Sylencia was there right at the beginning and then disappeared. While he was there, all he did was stoke Cora's flames, speculate about a third party (because that's super helpful), and "interact" with Adam by mentioning some setup talk. It's true that others did a good amount of setup and policy talk at the beginning, but they went from there; Sylencia has disappeared and until he reappears, it looks very scummy to me in the face of what he DID contribute. This is the first post I would consider to be worth reading in Zare's filter. He takes a VERY noncommittal stance on Hapa, and sets himself up to push Thrawn/Sylencia as his reads. I, for one, have the belief that both of these people are town, now, so looking back it seems weird. These two might have been easy targets for mafia to pick on, because of the general thread sentiment against them. What is most weird is that he comments on Hapa but arrives at no real conclusion, which could mean more if Hapa's flip is mafia, as I think. So what about his Duel 1 stance? On February 26 2013 23:35 zarepath wrote: I can't believe this happened. This seems far from the best duel we could have set up today. Thrawn switches his suspicions YET AGAIN: And then he bounces from hapa/acro to FOR SURE wanting to duel... Keirathi? But not to the point of ACTUALLY dueling him... just to the point of asking what OTHER people think about him dueling him. And his case came down to Keirathi only having a case against Thrawn based on meta... but isn't that, like, every single person in the thread? Everyone is surprised at Thrawn's performance this game based on his meta. Why isn't Snarf's tenuous Thrawn case scummier than Keirathi's? So why Keirathi? Why all the bravado about volunteering to be a duelist? No townie should want to be a duelist unless they feel super confident in their read -- at which point, they just ##Duel, not ask "DAE think my latest/greatest soft read is scum???" And in the end, he doesn't even have to do it. Thrawn made out like a BANDIT with this duel. I know I should be talking about adam/kier right now, but HOLY COW so many people got out of this one super well, including all of the lurkers/low contributors. All Sylencia has to do is vote and justify it; he doesn't have to forward unique reads on anybody but the two people. We could have spent 24 hours testing low contributors and seeing who their reads are when it has to be out of 11 other people, instead of just out of a pool of 2. Our ability to gain information has been CRIPPLED by a premature duel. We CANNOT do this again tomorrow. Marv was killed for his analysis, and his number one scum read was Thrawn.... and he's not even up for a duel? Even Thrawn himself seemed fatalistic about it (which isn't very townie IMO), and the fact he was "rescued" from this duel super early in the day is incredibly anti-town. His first reaction is a bunch of nothing about how convinced he is that thrawn is mafia, and that this is horrible. While it is emotional, which is a town tell, it is annoying that he manages to say nothing about the alignment of either of the actual duelists. Still, I can see a town player making this response. On February 27 2013 01:24 zarepath wrote: Looking through Keirathi's filter, I don't have a full town read on him, but he doesn't look nearly as scummy as Sylencia or Thrawn, and not as suspicious as Dienosore, and certainly not as counterproductive to town goals as Adam. The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does. If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum. Here he takes a similar stance to me, which I can see is scummy. The problem is, I'm not mafia. He may very well be. Calling Adam anti-town and softdefending Keirathi is a very weird thing to do in hindsight. So what's the difference between myself and Zare? On February 28 2013 00:38 zarepath wrote: I'm becoming more and more convinced that Adam isn't scum, mostly because I haven't yet found a satisfying answer to why Scum Adam would do what he did, unless it was to save Thrawn from having to duel, at which point the whole thing is a stupid association case. So I went into Keirathi's filter with some more open eyes. I hate first post town claims. Remember, thrawn wasn't on-board witht he "two scummy people duel" idea. He said making all those policies was pointless. So thrawn, why exactly do you want Hapa to duel? Do you think he is scum, or town? What is your ideal scenario for a duel? A strong townie vs a scum suspect? Or two scum suspects against each other? He gets on Thrawn AFTER everyone else has already. This is actually pretty late in the thread. I don't like that Keirathi's first "real" contribution is piling on top of Thrawn with everyone else and not actually contributing much, just asking Fake Interrogator Questions. On February 26 2013 10:50 Keirathi wrote: It wasn't a pointless question (and thrawn never answered it either). Thrawn came out and said "hey guys, forget all this policy stuff, its pointless. Just play!" Then, despite having no other mention of Hapa, as soon as other people start talking about him, thrawn was like "oh yea, hapa should duel tomorrow!" There's not even a read in there, since he took no stance on who *SHOULD* be dueling. It was just jumping onto thread sentiment with no thoughts towards Hapa from himself. After Thrawn again. Marv has been vocal about Thrawn's scumminess all thread, and it's basically the only thing that Keir is going after. It looks like sheeping. On February 27 2013 03:58 Keirathi wrote: I thought it was just a stupid move. Arbitrarily, I think it was scummy because he cut off all discussion about other candidates, and felt like just straight OMGUS because I was trying to get some discussion out of something I viewed as scum motivated. So was it "just a stupid move," or "scummy?" At this point everyone has declared it a very stupid move, so that's an easy sheep opinion to have, but also calling him scummy -- you either think he's scummy or stupid town. Then he had the gall to say that he dueled because I was trying to back out of a half-assed scum read? I feel like this is too emotional... phrases like "he had the gall" just seems too whiny to be substantive. And for two, what happened to his scum read of Corazon earlier on night 0? Oh right, he backed out of it because of further discussion. Hell he even went so far as to say that he wasn't a "tunnel machine" and that he pulls out of tunnels all th e time. But if I try to get some discussion about something that I view as scummy to see if I'm just being paranoid, he gets all holy roller and pulls the trigger on the duel. This isn't a case, it's whining. The situation reminds me a lot of GSL 3 (i think?). I saw something that I genuinely viewed as scummy and brought it to the thread. I took a lot of flak for it, but the difference is people were willing to discuss it with me while they were calling me scum. And as I talked it out more, and got some other perspective views, I changed my read. Why is he bringing this up? What's the motivation? He's basically saying that this is exactly like the time he was town, except only if Adam HADN'T dueled him, and if his scum read was wrong and needed to evolve. That's absolutely not a case on Adam, because in this meta reference he was wrong about his scum read, and Adam is his scum read in this case. Honestly the only connection I can see being relevant in the context of this post is the fact that he was town before. And bringing up a meta case like that, just for the sake of looking more town, in the middle of a post that is supposedly supposed to be your thoughts on Adam, seems scummy. I don't like that he doesn't make a case on Adam and is only whining about being dueled. And I also don't like that he hasn't made a case on anyone/anything else SINCE being dueled. On February 27 2013 03:48 Keirathi wrote: My reads haven't changed. I still think thrawn is likely scum because of his jumping around following thread sentiments, and I still see possible scum motivation in the Adam thing that I was trying to talk about. I'll write up some more later this evening when I get home, but I don't think an hour is enough time right now. It's been a night and he hasn't posted his reads. It's convenient that NONE of his reads have changed... but he didn't even HAVE reads on anybody other than those two people. Sure he still thinks what he thought about them, but he literally hasn't thought ANYTHING about anybody else, and hasn't even bothered to think ANYTHING since? On February 26 2013 16:03 Keirathi wrote: I'd appreciate it if someone could look at my points about Adam and give some comments other than "lol bad". Wanted people to talk about Adam, really wanted it bad. On February 26 2013 14:49 Keirathi wrote: I would be fine dueling thrawn. Why would town be fine with dueling? It's not like Keirathi even had a great case on Thrawn. Although, at the same time, why would scum be fine with dueling? Like others have said, NOT wanting to duel looks worse if you're scum. I don't know how to read this, but it's a very clear statement of intent for somebody whose ONLY read has been Thrawn, and hasn't even built a real strong case on him. ##Vote Keirathi Adam isn't scum. I just don't see the scum motivation for what he did at all. [/QUOTE] How hard his read on Keir goes in the other direction when thread sentiment changed. While my focus was on how my read on Adam changed, his focus is the less-believable version of this instance, that Keirathi somehow got scummier after the duel, which is bogus. This post smells like a bus, all over. This type of play leads me to believe Zare might well be mafia. I'm actually leaving unexpectedly on very short notice, so I'll quickly give my thought on Acro. I'm not going to filter dive him anyway, as he has 16 pages of crap that I don't care to read. Townie points: general activity, reads, and overall attitude. Scum points: covered in my case before; he doesn't push his reads all that well and is quite odd. He may or may not be mafia, it's hard to tell. What really worries me is Marv's take on Acro: On February 26 2013 07:59 marvellosity wrote: Acrofales - saying plenty of the right things, can't remember the various times it's happened, the most recent is questioning zare/corazon on how sylencia was mislynched for being useless last game. This dude is good mafia though which is why my read isn't stronger. That's all I have time for. Going gambling, probably won't be around for the deadline. If people want me in a duel, so be it. At the earliest time I have, I will duel someone if that is the case. Otherwise, good luck hunting mafia. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
I'm flattered you guys think I could do what I've done this game as mafia, but for real, I am town. Will be posting that case on Hapa I promised sometime soon. Or.... Right now. On February 27 2013 04:13 Hapahauli wrote: Yes and yes. None of my top scumreads are on the block right now. This is Hapa's official stance on the lynch day 1. He won't pick one and call them a bonafide scum read, he'll just call Adam town and lynch Keirathi based off that. This reeks of being extremely non-committal and basically just following thread sentiment, which was against Keirathi before the duel and only slightly shifted after the duel was called for. Town Hapa has balls. This Hapa does not. On February 28 2013 15:54 Hapahauli wrote: My full proposition for tomorrow is this: I'd like Dieno and Sylencia to duel, unless one of them starts showing some significant townieness. I'd also like to double-lynch 'em by default and leave it up to them to prove that they're town individually. If one of them does, I'd add Corazon to the list. As for HOW we should go about that, well you can only start by asking nicely. If that doesn't work, we can probably force one of them to duel the other by threatening to have Adam duel one of them (which is basically a vigi-shot given that there's no sane way that Adam's scum). As for who I'd duel myself, I wouldn't duel period. I think my voting actions speak for themselves yesterday. I get that I'm less active than usual, but it should be obvious that I'm playing to town objectives. Nor do I get the sense that there's any support for me dueling tomorrow (besides iamp anyway). If you're asking for a top scumread - it's hard to differentiate between Dieno/Sylencia since they've both played nearly identical games. Put a gun to my head, and I'd say Dieno on the basis that Sylencia has a history of being lurky as town in some of his newbie games, whereas Dieno's town performance in CT was pretty darn active. His stance that he never changes for the day 2 duel. Of note is that mafia dieno magically called for this very duel after Hapa posted this, and Hapa got to push this very agenda; one of killing both Dieno and Sylencia. Again, he takes no strong stances regarding the lynch. On March 01 2013 09:29 Hapahauli wrote: Oh Dieno pulled the trigger. That went easier than expected. Anyway, by default I want you both dead. It's up to both of you to indvidiaully convince me that I'm wrong and that you're town. Extremely odd coincidence, IMO, that Dieno calls for this duel. Hapa's response is also odd, that he felt the need to comment on it. Almost as if he knew it was going to happen, and planned this stance in advance... On March 01 2013 14:36 Hapahauli wrote: Dieno. Pretty sure I mentioned that before. No vote backs this proclamation up. This is the problem with allowing people to sit on their asses with the "double lynch" stance, it lets mafia look townie while really doing nothing. I did a good job explaining this in my Acro case, and what Hapa is doing here is nearly a carbon copy, only the effort he puts into it is pathetically small, and I don't think town Hapa would avoid taking a side in this race. On March 03 2013 08:26 Hapahauli wrote: Anyway Yamato, this whole "HAPA IS MAFIA OMG" is nearly identical to the shit you pulled in British Mini Mafia. You were Mafia, and suddenly a switch snapped and you were foaming out of the mouth that Mr.Cheesecake was scum beyond all rationality. This is a bold-faced lie. I, as mafia, am tunnelly and completely irrational, because that's how people think I am as town. Have I played that way this game? My reads have certainly changed; it's basically what people have been attacking me for this whole game. While you may not believe the reasons I give for these changes, the fact remains that I have explained them as well as they needed explaining. For Hapa to compare this game to British is absurd. He's drumming up a scum read on me because thread sentiment is turning against me. I want to duel Hapa today. If I'm in a duel, I'm dueling him, or someone is dueling me. Let it happen. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
He and Zare probably last two mafia. Everyone else is LIKELY to be town. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 04 2013 03:29 Adam4167 wrote: ##Vote: Yamato Yamato is scum for reasons previously discussed. Hapa is town for reasons previously discussed. And the Hapa = Town reasoning is...? No comment on the case you said I wasn't going to build? This is just lazy. | ||
| ||
