EPTThis Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 5
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
I'm going afk for a while. Hopefully by this time tomorrow there will be a clearer choice between the two, but right now my vote stays where placed, because Adam has yet to further justify his read on Keirathi as I requested. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 04:55 zarepath wrote: Because they DON'T both look terrible. They both look suspicious, but the problem with this whole duel is the fact that nobody wanted Adam in it except for Adam, and only two people wanted Keirathi in it. This is not a town-sanctioned duel, and so the scummiest people aren't in it. If we're ever going to double-lynch, let's have it be when town has actually put its two scummiest reads up for lynch, not when bad town goes after lurker town (this seems very possible). When people are saying that Adam looks scummier than Keirathi, it's still all relative -- I'm not convinced he's scum, let alone that they're BOTH scum. This is excellent analysis of the situation. Just wanted to point that out. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:25 Snarfs wrote: ...well if that's what I'm doing then what I'm doing is not what I'm trying to do -_-. I'm just trying to figure out why Corazon is voting Adam if his top scumread, Sylencia, is voting Adam in a manner that scum would be attempting to subtly kill off a townie (please note, this does not look anything like a bus). At the same time, this only makes sense if Cora truly believes that Keir is town. How can he truly believe Keir is town at this point in the game? Only you're not just talking about Cora's vote... On February 27 2013 15:02 Snarfs wrote: Yea, I just read over Keir and Adam's filters again and I'm even more of the opinion that people should not be voting Adam and should definitely be voting Keir. Especially if you think Sylencia is suspicious at all. It's exactly like Dieno said. Keir has so little... conviction in anything. It just doesn't read like he cares. "I'm not entirely convinced Adam is scum. I would appreciate some feedback." "I would be fine dueling you. I think you are scum." Where's the will to actually hunt? I don't see it. Let's kill Keirathi. P.S. Still not placing my vote, the time can only benefit town... but seriously... why are people voting Adam over this guy? Aside from the sentence I bolded, nothing is new in this entire post. I still don't agree that it is alignment indicative of Keir for him to be lurky, or indecisive about his early reads. The only new argument here is that people should NOT vote for Adam because Sylencia IS, which is an association case that is very, very bad. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
The guy does fuck all as town. I lost a game as town because of his propensity to lurk and be useless. There's zero indication to me that he's CONFIRMED MAFIA and we should get off the person he wants to vote for. The only question here is if you're really dumb enough to push this sort of logic or if you're mafia attempting to manipulate the lynch. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
Snarfs. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote: You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. ... WBG, I feel you. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
You seem pretty convinced of it, though, so at least I can assume you're probably town for it. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:14 Snarfs wrote: I almost decided to just leave this for the night because you seriously pissed me off with that comment. But I at least want you to convince me it's a bad case rather than just making me feel like shit T_T. Okay. So. Where is my flawed premiss? Your flawed premise is assuming that Sylencia is mafia. It's fine to read him that way, but when you start making decisions in the game based upon him being one alignment or another, you run into a multitude of problems, the biggest one being that despite your apparent conviction, the possibility exists that you are wrong, and Sylencia is town. What Sylencia is doing right now is only useful for figuring out his own alignment, not the alignment of the people he is voting for. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
Based on the complete uselessness of both parties involved in this lynch, Adam and Keirathi, I think the likelihood of them both being town is high. Mafia in this position would be more concerned with the possibility of being lynched here, and do something about it. Neither of these players seems to be trying particularly hard to live, so by default they're probably just town. It's unfortunate that one, or perhaps both, might die in this situation, but if I had to pick one, I would pick Adam. Keirathi, I think, is the better town among the two, and could potentially be valuable to us later on if left alive. That said, at this point, it doesn't matter too much to me which one lives, because I don't think either of them is particularly useful this game. THAT said, I don't want both to die. The mere thought of a double lynch is hilariously stupid in this situation, and I don't like the idea of not choosing either of them at all. Mafia have an unprecedented ability to hide in this situation, because they don't even have to FAKE a read on a player and justify it, they can just say they think they're both worth lynching and not vote, causing a double lynch. So who is doing this? Iamperfection. I initially thought he was fairly townie, but his interest in this lynch is tremendously low. Like, I don't think he's given a read on either of these people that was longer than a sentence or deeper than "He's mafia because XX and I said so." In fact, that's basically how all of his reads have been so far, town or scum. But what is really damning, to me, is the fact that he's pushing this double lynch thing with no good logic to back it up. Acro, I can believe. Iamp is just kinda on that wagon and has pushed it without a clear motive like Acro's. If these two really are townies, like I think, then mafia is more likely to be disinterested in picking sides, and has clear motivation to want them both dead. It's the same heuristic I used to catch on to Snarfs in Nomination; mafia players don't care which townie dies, and won't spend much effort picking one. Only iamp isn't even picking one. Hilariously scummy. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:34 Snarfs wrote: But. I'm. Not. Assuming. He's. Mafia. I'm saying that Corazon is :S I don't follow that logic at all. I clearly just told you how someone could, and indeed should, ignore their read on Sylencia when factoring in who to vote for. That's like, your whole argument. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
And we should definitely make sure we don't jump the gun on being stupid with these sort of duels in the future, because as my initial reaction showed, it's mafia-favored to do something like this. That said, I think I have some decent reads out of what happened today, so going into tomorrow, I hope people start listening to me. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:56 thrawn2112 wrote: yamato, i say if they are both town then it's a lose-lose trying to figure out which one to lynch. what you are describing is voting on a "lose-lose slightly less" scenario. I think we would have more to gain by lynching on the basis of which one is more likely to flip red. if one of them is red, voting on the basis of saving the better player is stupid. I'd rather vote based on the 'lose-win' scenario than the 'lose-lose slightly less' scenario. So do you have anything new to add to the keir vs adam discussion, focusing on which of them could be scum? I've added the only useful analysis needed, if you bother to read my filter. Adam's play is mafia-favored, and his likelihood of doing this again is high, so if we're strictly talking about lynching people who are playing anti-town, he is the obvious favorite. Keirathi's play, while indecisive, does not indicate a strong mafia mentality. His Adam read was not in line with thread sentiment, and he was only just in the process of fleshing it out. His time does seem legitimately limited, as Hapa pointed out, which significantly excuses the "scummiest" part of his play; the apparent lack of interest in the game. Adam's play since calling for the duel is quite terrible. All he's done is excuse and defend his decision, he really hasn't added to town's efforts in any meaningful way. While I do think his defensiveness is a little weird, the overall tone of his posts and his mentality seems townish. He's not overly concerned with being lynched for this, so it's a decent sign he might not be mafia. Keirathi has played similarly since the duel was called, to be honest. The fact that neither one is a clear candidate, nor that anyone is pushing particularly hard for one or the other is a decent sign to me that mafia doesn't care at all which one dies, and town isn't confident enough in either being mafia to make a distinction. While the possibility exists that one is mafia, I think the likelihood is low, and if there is a mafia, it's far more likely to be Adam than Keir, because of the analysis of Adam's decision I made earlier on. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
Like, oh my god, Acro, are you mafia? | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
You could be. This "Adam is 3p" shit is stupid. You have zero proof. You're just pulling it out of thin air. What's even more disturbing is how hard iamp is riding your wagon right now. Dude is pushing the same shit as you. I am confident he is mafia. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 28 2013 04:17 Acrofales wrote: Hrmm, yamato, have you read the arguments? Or are you just opposed to a double lynch on general principle? Do you have an updated opinion on Keirathi? How about Adam? Why are you voting for Adam? I've read the arguments, but you're so far into fantasy land with this that it makes zero sense. Adam's play makes plenty of sense from a town perspective, he's just not trying very hard to show it. I am opposed to a double lynch, and I will be voting Keirathi as the hammer if one more vote comes on him soon. | ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
|
yamato77
11589 Posts
Someone with balls make sure this doesn't end in a double lynch. I have to go to work. | ||
| ||
