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Mandalor. I'm still tired, and his filter is short, so this will be short. Note that with all 3 of these lurker analysis posts, I'm trying to highlight posts that actually show effort (or a notable lack thereof).
Shows that he's put some effort into reading my filter from another game
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17769301Puts a little effort into identify his possible lurker candidates[/url], and then makes what seems like an informed, reasonable pressure vote.
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17772108]Puts some effort[/url] into explaining his vote. Explains that he'll be away from the thread.
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17776100]Comments on interactions between players[/url]. I think this shows a bit of effort.
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17776186]Shows that he's read the thread some, makes a post with content[/url]
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17779732]Makes another vote with a decent explanation why[/url]. Comments on several players at once in a rational way (which shows some effort?)
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17794913]2 Low effort posts[/url] [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17794931]in a row[/url].
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17797121]But then he invites people to ask him questions[/url], i see this as sticking his neck out some, it shows a willingness to put in effort in the future.
I think mandalor is the least scummy of the lurkers. I feel many of his posts fall into that middle ground between putting in no effort (and not admitting or explaining why he's not putting in effort) vs actually making a real effort. Getting into WIFOM area, but could this be indicative of a scum trying to blend in?
I agree with corazon, right now I have little interest in lynching one of the active players on d3, unless I can find something in the thread that's way more compelling than I have so far.
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EBWOP: jesus christ sorry for that. If anyone wants me to repost a fixed version just let me know x.x
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Mocsta, I'm putting my best effort into analyzing the lurkers in a way that identifies contributions or lack of contributions. I think this is helpful to anyone that is also interested in lynching a lurker. It's hard to analyze the tiny contributions of these players =/
Here's a fixed version of that post I fucked up above:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2013 09:36 warbaby wrote:Mandalor. I'm still tired, and his filter is short, so this will be short. Note that with all 3 of these lurker analysis posts, I'm trying to highlight posts that actually show effort (or a notable lack thereof). Shows that he's put some effort into reading my filter from another gamePuts a little effort into identify his possible lurker candidates, and then makes what seems like an informed, reasonable pressure vote. Puts some effort into explaining his vote. Explains that he'll be away from the thread. Comments on interactions between players. I think this shows a bit of effort. Shows that he's read the thread some, makes a post with contentMakes another vote with a decent explanation why. Comments on several players at once in a rational way (which shows some effort?) 2 Low effort posts in a row. But then he invites people to ask him questions, i see this as sticking his neck out some, it shows a willingness to put in effort in the future. I think mandalor is the least scummy of the lurkers. I feel many of his posts fall into that middle ground between putting in no effort (and not admitting or explaining why he's not putting in effort) vs actually making a real effort. Getting into WIFOM area, but could this be indicative of a scum trying to blend in? I agree with corazon, right now I have little interest in lynching one of the active players on d3, unless I can find something in the thread that's way more compelling than I have so far.
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Mislynches happen D1. There is no way I'm willing to lynch Corazon over that and some crazy association case with Mocsta.
I'm glad TS made some effort to hunt scum among the active players, but I've yet to see anything that makes me sure I want to lynch Mocsta or Corazon.
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GGtestsubject. and also GG glurio, WaveofShadow, ObviousOne, and geript -- I forgot this earlier in all the excitement.
##Vote: Sevryn
What corazon said. Please try to make posts, especially ones with more than one sentence, that explain who we should lynch instead of you. Same goes for sylencia and mandalor.
BTW, tomorrow I have family obligations, so I may not be around until the evening.
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On February 17 2013 10:27 Sylencia wrote:
Never mind - I was roleblocked again.
Not to be a douche, but could you explain how you didn't know you were role blocked until 26 minutes after the deadline?
I assume you get notified of being roleblocked via PM, and the PM indicator is pretty obvious. Clearly you refreshed the thread if you knew nobody else claimed to be roleblocked, so you should have noticed the PM indicator...
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I see. Why do you think you've been roleblocked twice in a row? I doubt a JK would be protecting you, based on your contribution level (and the fact that TestSubject just got shot)
Scum doesn't have a role cop in this game, so why do you think they assume you're a valuable blue and keep blocking you?
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On February 17 2013 15:08 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2013 15:00 cDgCorazon wrote:
Alright, you want my logic as to why you are scum?
1. Your filter is 3 pages long. It's D3. You are lurking.
LOL mandalor and syls filters are shorter than mine and yet im the one you vote on to get activity out of?
2. Your arguments are either unoriginal or not very well reasoned.
a. Your case on Glurio wasn't well thought out (it described the actions of other players)
and you still went a long with it this is just as much a point against you.
b. Your case on me was a rehash of what TS and Geript said.
hey if something is true its true
3. You've only made two arguments the whole game. You're not scumhunting.
right now im making an argument with you about why your focusing me when syl is a much scummier option
4. I have to vote for you to come out and defend yourself. You've made about 30% of your posts in the past couple of hours only after I voted for you. Why does someone need to pressure you for you to come out and post?
this is just downright false. its a lot closer too 9-10% why would you lie about this?
All three of you guys are lurking. To figure out who is scum and who isn't, we need to delve into deeper reasoning such as this.
I've already pressured Sylencia to make another read besides Warbaby. There's still 43 hours left in this day, so there is plenty of time for me to change my vote if I see fit. aparently you have to vote to pressure people so why didnt you vote sylencia? this is the scummies reasons ive scene to think I'm the scummiest of the lurkers if we lynch syl today(which I think we should) when they flip scum your going to be next for soft defending them like this when you have no reason too other than being scum buddies.
Sevryn. I am not voting to pressure you. I am voting to lynch you, because you're useless to town, which either means you're scum or you're useless to town.
On February 17 2013 18:51 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2013 15:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
WB and I are getting really impatient as well. Is this a blatant scum slip or something? You accuse me all game of associating with you (when its clear I haven't been).. and now.. you're suddenly chummy with a guy you have been 'chasing' all game? WTF...
I found this odd as well, although Corazon is correct that we share impatience with the continued behavior of certain lurkers. Possibilities (warning! hypothetical scenarios involving my own alignment ahead!):
1) Cora and I are scum and this was a scumslip because we're coordinating our votes on sevryn. This implies cora has been bussing me aggressively on and off this game, but then didn't follow through with it.
2) Cora is town, he's currently working with the assumption that i'm also town. Since we're coordinating our votes and actually agreeing with each other now, he's simply decided we should cooperate.
Option 1 would be really odd scum play, and a terribly stupid scumslip. 2 would be fairly normal for later-game town play, when towns have to work together to get shit done without being interfered with by the scum. 2 follows KISS, so in some ways I guess I'm taking this as a (very tenuous) town read on Cora.
Also, my family obligations were cancelled due to a snow storm so I should be around today.
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EBWOP: Third possibility is that Corazon has a null read on me, and he's simply realized that our interests are currently aligned.
I'm not trying to put words into Cora's mouth, just looking at his potential motivations.
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Sorry for triple-posting. Fourth possibility: corazon is scum and i'm town. He wanted to mislynch me earlier, but gave up when it was clear I was no longer a viable candidate. Now he's buddying up to me so that I think he's town, because I was attacking him earlier for his vote on glurio.
It's a bunch of WIFOM and assumptions on top of assumptions, so I went back and took a really close look at Corazon's play D1, because it still confuses me. His vote for glurio has terrible justifications behind it IMO; but I think his vote, unvote, and then vote again on me looks like a confused, paranoid town trying to pressure someone he thinks could be scum. He says in that post I linked "Lynching Glurio would go a long way in either proving or disproving my case towards WB. His town claim is even stupider than WB's as well."
What did you mean by that Corazon, and did you actually learn anything from glurio's flip? Is this why you're apparently buddying up to me now, as Mocsta pointed out?
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On February 18 2013 04:47 cDgCorazon wrote:
I think we will learn more about each other from lynching one of the three candidates we have on the table.
That could very well be.
Where is zarepath? He says he'll post reads but then he says he didn't have time without really explaining why, or when he would have time.
While his filter is not so tragically ridiculous as the 3 real lurkers, it's pretty far into D3 and we've yet to get a anything from zarepath.
Zarepath, if you're legitimately busy, can you at least tell us when we can expect you to be around, please? This could help assuage my growing concerns that you may be "actively lurking" to some degree.
Also, why hasn't Madalor made any posts? At least sevryn and sylencia are responding to our displeasure with their lurking. Where is Mandalor?
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@Sylencia, sevryn, mandalor
Who do you intend to vote for? Since you are all lurkers, I think it would be hypocritical of you to vote for another lurker. Further, it seems unlikely all 3 of you are scum, meaning an "active" player is scum.
Why don't you make a case against one of the "active" players: Mocsta, Corazon, Zarepath, or myself. If you put effort into making such a case, it would help a great deal to prove that you're at least trying to help town.
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EBWOP: I guess sn0_man would be included in the list of active players, although I'd love to see him make some posts during D3. Also, sevryn basically already answered this question when he explained who his scum reads are.
Thanks for explaining Corazon, I must have missed that.
I want to highlight this post by mocsta:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2013 13:35 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2013 10:56 Sylencia wrote:DIdn't I already answer the question? On February 16 2013 13:54 Sylencia wrote:
Corazon: I'm still sure that Warbaby is scum, potential slip during day 2, one of the weirdest statements I've read during day 1, and he's now also claimed I've fake roleblock claimed. Remember when you were scum and you managed to slip under the radar for another 3 days while we flailed around until the other scum kind of screwed up your plans? This is something I don't want to let happen again.
I said before, a case shows more about the maker, than the recipient. Is the above your case for warbaby? Is that the best you can muster? Why is this a contribution of merit compared to posts from Mandalor or Sevryn? Why should we believe you were even RB'd twice? You pointed out you said you were not blue, so i cant see why scum would RB you in the first place... and then why the heck would a JK target you over TestSubject. - All you have returned to us is WIFOM. This smells *really* fishy to me.I want some answers to the above. Let me remind you
I agree with Mocsta. The RB claim seems really fishy. I went and reviewed filters again, and at this point sevryn is actually making some effort, while sylencia is not. Sevryn's case on sylencia makes some sense, while sylencia's case on me is terrible. I still feel that the posts Mandalor did make seemed to have a pro-town motivation behind them.
So after some thought and the play of these two players so far on D3, I'm going to
##Vote: Sylencia
+ Show Spoiler +
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On February 17 2013 09:58 Sn0_Man wrote:
Erm, no time to write a big last will, but I'd like to remind you guys that a no-lynch COULD be quite reasonable if we can't consolidate on a real lynch target.
He's not the first one to suggest no-lynch. Although sn0 seems to understand it's only a last resort...
Also, Sylencia has a valid point that we need to hear from Zarepath, Sn0_man, and Mandalor. But that's a terrible reason to vote no-lynch with >24 hours left =_=
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On February 18 2013 08:29 Mocsta wrote:
Funny how its u guys responding... Not sylencia
Just goes to show. More contributions from him that go no where.
For someone that is as keen to speculate on setup as him. He shoulda known its a last resort..
Oh yeah, it's hilarious how this game currently has like 3 legit active players in it. 
On February 18 2013 08:29 Mocsta wrote:
I think he is starting to cave from the pressure
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SI8W0H3qs_I/AAAAAAAACVI/nVXipX0nRow/s320/CaseShillerYoYMay2008.jpg) sylencia alignment probability index
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Sn0_man said earlier that he might be too lazy to make reads this weekend, but he didn't really indicate that he'd be completely gone for 24h. I also want to complain again about the fact that he suggested a no-lynch before sylencia did.
Sylencia seems to have no idea how or when he should no-lynch appropriately, but I wonder where he got the idea from in the first place.
+ Show Spoiler [speculation] +Unless I'm wrong, we're currently at MYLO. 5 dead players. 5-3 right now, 4-3 after a no-lynch leaves us at LYLO. I'm not interested in carrying the game into a LYLO situation if 5 of the players are making zero posts 30 odd hours into D2, and 3 of them have been lurking the whole game. Unless we seriously think there are 2 scum, but I don't think this is likely.
+ Show Spoiler [fluff] +how I feel about D3 so far...
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Voting no-lynch is giving up on trying to lynch a scum. The correct time to no-lynch is much closer to deadline, after you have concluded that you failed to hunt and catch a scum. The incorrect time to no-lynch is while you are failing to even try to find a scum, >24 hours from the D3 deadline, after lurking the whole game.
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Few thoughts to share:
1) Sylencia, there is no off-limits for you. If you want to make a triple-whammy of cases against Mocsta, Corazon, and myself... go right ahead. If you put some serious effort into it (analyzing posts and motives) then it'd go a long way towards helping me think you're not mafia scum
2) Sn0_man, Zarepath, and Mandalor are getting a free ride so far D3. Mocsta asked when this would start to get stinky -- I'd say right about now is when I crinkle up my nose and start considering lynching a real lurker (since sylencia and sevryn apparently remembered how to make post).
2a) Sevryn and sylencia have put a lot more effort into the game at this point compared to mandabore. In fact Manda will be modkilled or replaced if he fails to post at all on D3 (and especially doesn't cast a vote).
2b) Really makes me think scum is sn0, zare, and mandalore; and the three of them are just sitting back and letting town mislynch itself.
3) Corazon, what is the point of you voting sylencia at this point? He's already set to be lynched. Obviously you can vote for whoever you want, but I don't understand why you'd want to pile up on sylencia at this point.
4) How would you guys feel about lynching mandalore instead, since he's currently lurking harder than the other two? In sylencia's credit, he won't go down without a fight If I were a scum in his shoes I'd just give up, lol.
5) The status quo in this thread is entirely unacceptable =/
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That's fair Corazon. I'm also still expecting more from Sylencia. I just wanted to point out that at least he's making posts, unlike Zarepath, Sn0_man, and Mandalor.
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I agree on 4 as well. I'm not interested in lynching someone who is about to be modkilled or replaced for complete inactivity (which I believe applies to all 3 of the bolded names above).
In light of this perhaps we should vote no-lynch. Then the scumteam will be modkilled and we win. lolololol
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/3xCm6sn.jpg)
