Any estimate on when this will start?
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
Any estimate on when this will start? | ||
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This will be my catching up post. Promethelax For starters, my strongest scum read currently is Promethelax. His first post was (as previously mentioned) quite useless. It was a fairly large post that says things that everyone in this game should know. It seems to be a post just to seem like he is saying something, granted it could come from a player frustrated by the last few games, but his followup posts make me read it as the former. On January 26 2013 09:08 Promethelax wrote: Okay, lets set some ground rules, no one tries to lynch Marv d1 unless Hapa, me and VE all agree about him being scum. We're the three who know him well in this group. A corollary is that we will lynch him in lylo no matter what. If he is town and scum want to take the risk of letting him live that long we can make that trade. Along with that we will kill lurkers and liars, I'm done with towns where those things are acceptable. I would like confirmation from those players who are here on this. People who play anti-town will also be lynched. We must make it so that townies cannot play in a scummy way, it is time for town to win a mini. We believe in capital punishment in this town. xsksc: tell me about yourself. What are your strengths and what are your weaknesses? In that quote he says that he is one of the three people in this group that know Marv well, but he immediately votes Vivax for his acceptance of Marv's uncontested Miller claim. Maybe I don't know Marv as well as I think I do, but I'm 100% sure that Marv would not gamble on a miller claim like that. There's a 40% chance that he just instantly dies, and I think he's far too good of a scum player to try a gamble like that, I would only expect it from a weaker player. There's too big of an initial risk, and with so many people knowledgable about C9 set ups it would be a huge risk later on as well. I can see no scum motivation for Marv doing this claim, it would only hamper him in the long run in my opinion. The fact that Promethelax was so quick to A) throw a vote on Vivax for coming so quickly to the same line of thinking, and B) throw suspicion on Marv's claim after saying how well he knew him makes me think he's just trying to spread suspicion however he can. I'm not sure how to take his conversation with Hapahauli about past games, I haven't yet had time to read them to find out which one is actually correct in their account of it, but it seems strange that they would disagree about so much of it. Not necessarily scummy, just strange at this point. On January 26 2013 20:02 Promethelax wrote: Clearly it does not make I p scummiest in my eyes. JX is scummiest. In the shower I had a thought he wants us to distrust Marc's miller claim. Scum want that. This is exactly what he had been doing earlier though, trying to make people distrust Marv's claim, so why is that only scummy when JieXian does it? I also don't feel he has been very active in pressuring lurkers, but he has at least commented on them, though it felt very out of place. Coming after such a hardline stance on lynching lurkers this also reads scummy to me. It may just be because it is sitll fairly early in Day 1, but I expect to see more later in the day or this will become increasingly scummy. I'm null on his post clarifying VisceraEyes statement because on one hand I do see it as a distinctly townie to try and clarify the thread and generate discussion, but I can also see the scum motivation in it. Because this is such a middle ground thing it weakens my scum read on him, but I'm comfortable enough to have a vote on him for now. ##vote: Promethelax @Prom: Do you still consider Vivax's posts scummy? How do you feel about VisceraEyes? What do you think of Hapahauli so far? Weaker/nullish reads Thrawn2112 This will be much shorter. His first post is entirely null to me, a fairly obvious joke post but I don't have much faith in my ability to tell whether the joke is forced or not. What's concerning to me is his lack of contribution afterwards, I'm used to Thrawn being a name I see pop up quite frequently in whichever game he is in, and he's thus far barely been in this one. I don't think this matches up with any of his previous playing styles however, so this is a very weak scum read. VisceraEyes On January 26 2013 17:35 VisceraEyes wrote: In this post he appears to be suspicious of prom for his vote on Vivax. What strikes me however is that if he's suspicious of Prom, he's basically telling Prom how to answer to make himself less suspicious. Why would he do this as a townie? As scum I can see reason for him to coach Prom through to the correct response regardless of Prom's alignment, but why would iamp do that as town? Especially given his response to my calling him out: This post struck me as quite scummy, because I cannot follow the logic in this post. He throws suspicion on IamPerfection because he cannot see the town reason to coach someone through a question. But where is the mafia motivation? If he's coaching another mafia member in the thread, why not just tell him in their QT? If he's coaching a townie, well, why? He's either lowering the suspicion on them, or making the question null. It seems more likely to be a mistake in my eyes, so Viscera trying to paint it as scummy is suspicious to me. @VisceraEyes Do you agree or disagree with my thoughts on IamPerfection's post? How do you feel about Promethelax's post clarifying what you said? | ||
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On January 27 2013 06:14 VisceraEyes wrote: I can't find anything in your post to agree or disagree with aside from you thinking my post is scummy. I uh....disagree that my post is scummy? What's even scummy about it? I don't understand why I have to be scum because you disagree with my suspicion. Can you not think of a town motivation for me making a case against someone and voting for them? Do you KNOW something about iamp's alignment that I don't? Promethelax clarification was, in fact, what I meant. I didn't see it and didn't respond to it, but looking back he's right in what I found suspicious about iamp's post. Djodref dumbed down my accusation unfairly and Prom corrected him. Like you, I find this null. I wasn't asking if you agreed your post was scummy, I was asking if you could understand my reasoning and the first half of your post quite adequately answered that. I am a little worried about how defensive you are in the second half. Though I would agree with your reasoning if it were most players, but I find it more useful to use different things to read IamPerfection. Have you played with him often? I'm glad we're on the same wavelength about the clarification. You've moved up more towards townie with this post though. | ||
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On January 27 2013 11:52 Vivax wrote: Ok alright. Let's assume for a moment that he is the first scum. We have to find the second. Everything xsksc posts from now on is done of his own will. If he redeems himself, fine, if not, he's dead anyway. ##Unvote ##Vote Sharrant Lengthy post with scumreads I don't agree with. He starts on picking on Prom for posting a useless first post but doesn't see xsksc's posts. The post is designed to look like he's putting effort into the game and suggests he posted that to not get attacked by us so he can go back lurking and doing nothing while resting on some made up reads. I'm interested to hear where you disagree with my scum reads, would you please elaborate? I have not missed xsksc's posts, but I haven't felt the need to comment on them yet. My first read through the thread I thought he was pretty scummy, but I did not have time to write a post at that point. In subsequent readings I've had him anywhere from null to slightly townie. On January 26 2013 14:06 xsksc wrote: It's just us 3 on? zzz Where are the Americans? It can't be that late across the pond o.O On January 26 2013 14:11 xsksc wrote: Marv is british, no? It's 5.11am here ^_^ Posts like this make me think he is very enthusiastic about this game, something which for most is a town tell, perhaps that's how he plays as mafia, but I haven't read his past games. We share at least one town read, and he has at least one of my town reads as a scum read. His interaction with Djo was a rather protracted and silly argument, but that's more Djo's fault than his I'd say, and I have a notoriously hard time reading Djo so it's neither here nor there to me until I have a better grasp of both players. Xsksc has some strong town tells to me, but has a number of iffy things that bring him down to nullish-town. I don't feel the need to talk about town reads with the thread unless specifically asked about them, or if a strong town read is being attacked, that's why there's been no comment. | ||
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On January 27 2013 13:59 xsksc wrote: @sharrant Level of enthusiasm is a pretty bad way of reading someone I think. Mafia can pretty easily fake it...those posts would be just as easy for me to make if I was scum. I would disagree with you, even many of the strongest scum players on the forum are easiest to spot just by their interest and enthusiasm for the game. That's been Marv's downfall in several games and I'd say he's the strongest scum player I've seen on the forum. An earnest enthusiasm is a difficult appearance for mafia players to keep. You could be proving me wrong right now, or you could just be very enthusiastic because this is your first scum game in just under a year and a half. That was an avenue of thought I had not explored. | ||
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On January 27 2013 14:21 iamperfection wrote: is it time to get the search party together for thrawn??? anyways the wagon on thrawn is now the wagon of justice. thrawn lurks when he is scum show him no mercy. Is this a lurker lynch, or a scum lynch in your eyes? | ||
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On January 27 2013 14:47 iamperfection wrote: i think i was pretty clear on what it was. plus i only lynch in one way and that is scum...... You were quite clear, but I wanted to give you a chance to clarify. I agree that Thrawn lurks when he is scum, but I have never seen him lurk this hard. Comparing his filters in other games they suffer significantly when he's scum compared to town, but I find it a little absurd to compare this lurking to his lurking in other games. I would be more agreeable if you had said this was a lurker lynch, but lurking this hard is headed into modkill/replacement territory, and at least from my perspective this seems non-alignment indicitave because of the severity of the lurking. I'll consider this more as we get closer to the deadline, but unless he pipes up soon, he's going to stay as a null read. | ||
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On January 28 2013 03:28 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm not softdefending thrawn. I'm saying I don't like that there's no resistance to the wagon. I've said (multiple times) that I'm okay with a thrawn lynch. So whatever, keep trying to inject scumminess into my play however you wish yamato. It doesn't make me scum. Now you've got me interested. Are you saying you don't see how what you're doing constitutes a soft defense? You say you're "okay" with the lynch, but then say that he can't be scum because no one is defending him. That sounds like a defense to me. What would you call it? I can't really see a way for scum to push the wagon off of him at all without drawing attention to himself, aside from a play like that. Any other attempt besides a very good case on another player would be fairly transparent I think. Do you agree? If you don't, how would you attempt to bring the case off of him if you were both scum hypothetically? | ||
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On January 28 2013 03:36 EmileZola wrote: ##unvote ##vote: VisceraEyes At least put some effort into it. I can't read your play because of how little of it there's been, and the constant is he or isn't he defense by everyone that's played with Zentor. Please give some reasoning. | ||
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On January 28 2013 06:43 iamperfection wrote: 3 stars for argo do we have enough votes yet to kill thrawn? Is that out of four or out of five? I thought it was an excellent movie. I'll be here from now until the lynch deadline, after that I'll be popping back in every so often. If anyone has any questions I'd be glad to answer. I will not move over to a Thrawn lynch though, I'm not comfortable with a lurker lynch when there's people I think are scummier. I would rather lynch Promethelax today, if I had to chose someone else it would probably be VisceraEyes, but I'd prefer to have him around another day to try and get a better read on him. I'm expecting Djodref to show up in the thread soon otherwise he'll be picking up traction in my mind as a suspect. | ||
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On January 28 2013 06:57 Promethelax wrote: I don't see the insult. Answer me about where you are getting these meta reads and your game history. On January 23 2013 19:05 Promethelax wrote: Are you planning on getting modkilled and replaced again by the way? I am not fond of people whom I have replaced for. On January 26 2013 14:18 Promethelax wrote: JX also hasn't posted and its afternoon for the little spam monster. Ghost is American and I dunno where the smurf is from for real. I honestly doubt sharrent will even post, I had to replace for him in LC and I doubt things have changed. We will see though. I too am worried by Tfunk. I look forward to something from him, . I'll let you figure out where it is in the first post. To answer your questions (because I'm just such a nice guy) my meta reads are because I've read the majority of the games that have happened since August or July on the forums, though very few from before that time. And this is my last complete game on here. NMMXXVII http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=367548 My filter http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=367548&user=279649 | ||
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On January 28 2013 07:04 Promethelax wrote: oh and Sharant, riddle me this, do you really believe activity is a good indication of alignment? A simple yes or no will do. Viv, put your vote on someone you think is scum. Don't be a fool. Purely activity? No. But I don't see how asking a yes or no question is going to help you at all though, that's rather silly. Some players are, however. more easily read by their activity level and their tone/language rather than their contributions, there are players in this game I would put in that category. | ||
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On January 28 2013 07:20 Djodref wrote: I'm here and I'm ready to fight ? What do you want from me ? You cannot expect me to wake up exactly at 6am on Monday morning to play this game. Would I be scum if I miss my alarm clock ? @ ghost We need your case on VE. @ VE Sharrant was the resistance for thrawn lynch. You are not reading the thread properly. If you had said you were going to be here and then weren't, that would be a mark against you. Catch up on what you've missed, and stick around for the lynch. That's what I want. | ||
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EmileZola is like a vortex for my sanity. Another big lurker (though slightly more active) and he's mainly just sort of trolled along. I think it's fairly safe to treat him like he's not MrZentor, which makes me wonder why the wagon that was beginning to form on him fizzled out and hasn't come back after the revelation. He agrees with one of my reads though, I'm not sure to take that as a mark against my read, or a mark for him being townie, I need to hear more from him. Djodref is still null for me, and JieXian is pretty much my wildcard scum read. If it doesn't end up being Prom/VE/EmileZola I would expect JieXian to be in the team. | ||
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On January 28 2013 07:32 Promethelax wrote: Shar says he has read every game since july but not played in any. Most. Not every. I decided not to play in any games after LC until my circumstances would permit it more. On January 28 2013 07:29 Djodref wrote: I've caught up on the thread already. I have been missing deadlines as scum and as town because mornings are difficult for me. Anyway, you said before that you have a notoriously hard time reading me bit I don't remember playing any game with you. What games were you referring to ? Witchcraft, NMMXVIII, Hero, and Mario mini are the main ones. I had you pretty much as a null read throughout them, I couldn't ever really figure you out. In Chrono Trigger I pegged you fairly easily as town, but that was more the nature of the game than anything I think. | ||
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On January 26 2013 16:16 Promethelax wrote: Before it got fucked up we were both town. I feel like you calling me scum in CT was more an omgus than a read. Look let's drop it, we aren't finding scum here and now with this discussion. @Prom Just a case of me not being specific enough. The games I was referring to not having read were the newbie games. You say he only ever misread you as mafia back in the newbies. He claims that you were actually mafia in that game. And then you say something about the game being fucked up (presumably it had to be restarted and you were rolled as mafia on the second time). That's what confuses me, why do you two have such different recollections? I could see the scum motivation in your side of the exchange, but I thought it was too absurd to be an actual attempt at hoping Hapa would not remember the games clearly. So it was just null and confusing. I did read CT, I was pretty sure you were town there, and that Hapahauli was just being paranoid town as well so I wasn't confused there, just didn't seperate the two sets of games you were referring to. | ||
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Nicely done, everyone. | ||
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On January 28 2013 10:30 yamato77 wrote: Going back and looking at the game, finding people who didn't vote Thrawn, I saw this post: When I see a player give out this many null/potentially scum reads in one post, my scumdar goes off. He's basically listed half the game here and left himself open to voting for them in the future, super scummy behavior. To top it off, he's refusing to give a read on Thrawn despite the evidence given by others. This reads hugely noncommittal. He doesn't take a strong stance even on one of the players he considers to be part of his hypothetical scum team, he just waffles and says "I need to hear more from him." He's also amazingly fluffy throughout his filter. I'd be up for lynching him tomorrow. I hope you realize that this post was in response to someone asking me for more reads than what I had already given. The reason I had not stated these before that is because they aren't sure things in my mind, just like Promethelax has moved more towards townie in the last while, but I'll be rereading everything a few times soon. Now, Yamato, I've seen your name in a lot of games, you should be able to reason this out fairly quickly. All of the scum were on Thrawn's wagon. Without a doubt in the world. You just have to look at how they arrived on there to find which are scum. Why am I saying this with such certainty? Because no doubt when Thrawn made his little "I haven't died, I'll still play eventually" post, he told his partners in the scum QT that there wasn't a chance he would make it back for the lynch. Even if he didn't they could see for a mile away that he was the one getting lynched. Right now just based off that I think VE is most likely to flip scum from his actual joining of the bandwagon. I'll have a big post closer to the deadline with some actual reads, until then it will just be small posts. | ||
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On January 28 2013 10:55 yamato77 wrote: I suppose that makes sense, but I wouldn't absolve people that didn't vote for thrawn completely just because of that logic. I don't like your reason for not wanting to kill him after the evidence was on the table. People that were resistant to the idea of him being mafia, especially early on, should be scrutinized. What evidence are you referring to, might I ask? | ||
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On January 28 2013 11:05 yamato77 wrote: People posted evidence of his meta, etc. It was there. I'm not going to bother digging it up. I knew that he lurked when he was mafia, but the difference is how much he lurked this game. As scum he averages about 2 pages worth of filter in a day, whereas when playing town his average is more along the lines of 4-6, that's something I knew coming into this game. In all of day 1 he had 3 posts, one of them a joke. That's not lurking, that's just being gone. Don't get me wrong, I'm very glad we flipped him and he flipped scum, but were I a betting man I'd wager that in the post game we'll hear that he was too busy to play. | ||
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Yamato I'd say he's confirmed town, if he's still around at LyLo then we could have an issue but that's it. IamPerfection First townread of the game, pretty much confirmed. Posts don't feel constructed, and he's not giving off an air of discomfort, so even without his spot as conductor of the thrawn wagon he's got major townie points. The only thing that worries me is how sure he was that it was scum play from Thrawn, it's a niggling doubt but if Thrawn knew he wouldn't be around he might've told them to go for a very early bus. Until LyLo he should be treated as confirmed town. Djodref I can't see him being anything other than the vigi at this point, again, he's anotherperson to treat as confirmed town unless we start getting SK kills, or the game doesn't end after the scum's death, but that'd be such a risky play for an SK to make, there's just no payoff. EmileZola I did not like his early game at all, but he's been very townie lately to make up for it. Being a hydra makes a lot of sense, and seems to almost confirm him green. Promethelax Not my strongest read ever, but I'm fairly certain he's town. His recent posts have been pretty solid. Vivax Right out of the gates I had him as a strong townread with IamPerfection, but that's dropped off a little. Ghost_403 I'm reasonably certain he's town. His thoughts have almost been bang on to what mine have been, I'm hesitant to put him as town until I hear his current thoughts on Hapahauli and Promethelax. JieXian Unsure about him, but other people are reading him as town, so that's a point for him above xsksc xsksc Unsure about him either, almost has to be scum by process of elimination if Hapahauli wasn't in the game still. Hapahauli There's not much to say about Hapa without trying to mindgame the hosts. Scummy/null. VisceraEyes I'm not going to make connection cases before his flip, but if there were ever a time to do that, I think it would be now. The first thing that set me off was this post. On January 26 2013 17:35 VisceraEyes wrote: Okay so far I think iamp is the scummiest. Earlier he asked me if I was serious about my accusation of thrawn. Looking back I noticed this in his filter. In this post he appears to be suspicious of prom for his vote on Vivax. What strikes me however is that if he's suspicious of Prom, he's basically telling Prom how to answer to make himself less suspicious. Why would he do this as a townie? As scum I can see reason for him to coach Prom through to the correct response regardless of Prom's alignment, but why would iamp do that as town? Especially given his response to my calling him out: It would kind of at that. ##Vote: iamperfection At this point I already had a huge townread on IamPerfection but VisceraEyes is trying to make him look scummy, and he is the only scum read he mentions all day. The closest he comes to another person being scummy, is saying he could lynch EmileZola because he's a troll and that he's okay with a policy lynch on Thrawn. (He does soft defend Hapa as well, but that's for after the flip) On January 27 2013 01:44 VisceraEyes wrote: I can do a thrawn vote too...consolidation-style. Then the Thrawn bandwagon starts picking up steam, and suddenly VE can't even be bothered to mention people he thinks are scummy. He's entirely focused on how the wagon must be scum, but doesn't actually comment on who on the wagon might be scum. On January 28 2013 03:06 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm still okay with the thrawn lynch, aside from the relative lack of opposition. No one seems to care if thrawn dies, which is never indicative of a good lynch. But this is minor, and it's still kinda early. On January 28 2013 03:19 VisceraEyes wrote: Everyone does....that doesn't give you pause at all? Two posts not even 15 minutes apart, both giving the most meek defense I've ever seen. It's like he's trying to get the bandwagon off of Thrawn without his name being involved at all. On January 28 2013 03:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Because if there's no resistance that means that scum are okay with the lynch. Who are scum okay with lynching? Townies. Like I said, it's early enough that it's not really that much of a concern, but I wanted to put that out there for anyone paying attention to that kind of thing. No one has spoken up in defense of thrawn yet - at least not that I've seen. This is something that should be considered. "Hey, guys, third post about the Thrawn lynch being bad in 20 minutes. Boy, it sure is crazy how no one is defending him right? Right, guys? He's obviously townie." On January 28 2013 03:26 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm not gonna sit here and argue with you. If you really wanna push this failwagon be my guest. "I'm not going to argue, but it's a bad lynch" On January 28 2013 03:28 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm not softdefending thrawn. I'm saying I don't like that there's no resistance to the wagon. I've said (multiple times) that I'm okay with a thrawn lynch. So whatever, keep trying to inject scumminess into my play however you wish yamato. It doesn't make me scum. "I'm not soft defending Thrawn, I'm just saying this is a bad lynch for the fifth time in 20 minutes (Seriously, from 3:06 to 3:28 he posted 5 times about how Thrawn is most likely town). He's obviously town, you can tell by the lack of people resisting the wagon, but I'm okay with a thrawn lynch." Pardon? You just spent 5 posts in a row saying he was town, the wagon is being lead by your ONLY SCUMREAD, and you are "okay" with the lynch? On January 28 2013 03:40 VisceraEyes wrote: Well, there are now three votes on VE. You do the math Sharrant. I'm pulling a thrawn. I've got a birthday party to go to, so I won't be back tonight. Figure it out guys. "I don't even care enough to mention someone you should be voting before I leave." On January 28 2013 03:48 VisceraEyes wrote: Nono...I'll throw my weight behind thrawn. ##Unvote ##Vote: thrawn "Oh, right, let me just hop on this wagon first." How is that not deserving of an instant lynch since Thrawn flipped red? I don't want him vigged, I want him lynched. I want there to be as much discussion about this as possible. So, quick recap here. His ONLY SCUMREAD throughout all 48 hours of day 1 is a person that I think most people had easily meta-ed as town. He does no scum hunting beyond this, opting for two policy lynches. And then when one of them happens to be on scum, he defends him in 5 posts in 22 minutes and then says "I wasn't soft defending him". Then hops onto the wagon anyways. If someone can rationalize this from a town perspective I would love to hear it, but all I see is VisceraEyes claiming scum, and everyone just looking elsewhere. | ||
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On January 29 2013 07:40 VisceraEyes wrote: And the "failwagon" was in response to Yamato who was pushing me as a lynch target, I was not referring to the thrawn lynch. Ah, my apologies on that one, I didn't realize. The rest still stands. | ||
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On January 30 2013 10:09 Vivax wrote: I'm going to repeat it nicely: SHARRANT SAID HE DOESNT WANT TO TALK ABOUT VE'S CONNECTIONS BEFORE HIS FLIP. BUT HE STILL TALKED ABOUT HIM. THEN VE FLIPPED GREEN. TOWN NO KNOW WHO FLIP NEXT. SHARRANT DID. btw I'm not angry, just want to make it clear for you. Let's nip this in the bud. I was talking about lynching him. I thought my case was pretty good, and there was a fair amount of suspicion on him from other people as well. So I was planning on going after him on day 2. The reason I mentioned not making connection cases is because I felt if VE flipped scum that Hapa would be pretty surely scum, I withheld that because it would be stupid making pre flip connection cases, and it turned out it was smart to withhold it because VE flipped town during the night. | ||
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On January 30 2013 10:17 Djodref wrote: @ Sharrant What about Prome and EZ saying that they were going to lynch me if I had shot VE ? And the fact the only few people wanted to shoot VE ? Tell me who do you think could have followed you on a VE lynch ? Well, you had VE as a scum read going into N1, Ghost had VE as a scum game since the beginning of the game (for those of you wondering, my town read on Ghost came because his entrance into the thread matched by thoughts throughout the whole game word for word). Half of EZ had VE as scum earlier as well. So I figured with a strong case (and I think it was a pretty good case, even if it turned out to be wrong) that it would push it to the point where a VE lynch would be viable unless he started playing better. | ||
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On January 30 2013 10:31 Djodref wrote: Ok, fair enough. Who would you lynch today ? Wich players do you have as possible scum and why ? Off the top of my head JieXian, EZ, Prom, and Jay are the only people I could see as being scum at this point. xsksc's posting style gave him townie points early with me, and seeing the green check makes me even more sure. Everyone not on the list read townie to me. I'm going to spend more time going through filters right now, I'll still try and respond to any questions that come up while I'm reading and writing though. | ||
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I'll write more on this shortly but it needs more filter diving, the other big thing I noticed does not. Promethelax and EZ also strike me as a possible scum team. This one is much less likely, but this post is what put it into my head big time. On January 29 2013 08:54 Promethelax wrote: Because he was the strongest town player in the game? I'd have shot him as scum too. Sorry ghost. Still love you even though I thought you was scum. So with these night kills djo is pretty unlikely to be the SK but if he is sk we'll need to lynch him. Ah we'll, saving him until Lylo and/or a night with too many kills. Going to read over the night, wish VE had added more and that ghost hadn't just attacked me. Imp: I am opposed to a xscsk lynch. After talking about his respect for Bugs' play in the pregame, and after the reveal of SS/WBG being a hydra he mentions how VE was the strongest town player. Why did this bug me so much? SS/WBG being a hydra was very recent in the thread, it still should have been on his mind at this point. He had EZ as a town read (he mentions this shortly after when he also says he didn't think it through). It makes me think that he and EZ are scum together, and that was a big slip. There's certainly some faults to it, he was very agressive about finding out who EZ was, but also says that he knew it was at least SS playing because he learned it from the hosts earlier in the pregame. (I'm not sure about this, but it strikes me that if one person in the game was told by the hosts it should have been knowledge to everyone) so that makes me think that they might both be scum and that's how he knew. Again, this next point is a bit waffley, but this is based on a pretty weird slip so I really have to look at it both ways. EZ was not killed last night, even though he was revealed to be two veteran players. Instead they took the opportunity to kill VE, even over pretty much confirmed town Yamato and Iamp AND Djo. That makes me think that whoever killed him must have held him in high regard (which promethelax does, and I'm sure EZ does as well). Now, on the other hand, it's just plain strange to me that none of the really confirmed people were shot (except for Djo, because the scum have to have a healthy skepticism as to whether he is town or bullet proof SK). But for scum to shoot VE who did have a fair bit of suspicion on him, over one of the almost confirmed town really says that it was someone who respected his play. | ||
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You're pushing two lurkers right now, I do think JX has about a 50% chance to flip scum, probably even a little higher than that. And I can tell you that I am town, so you better get another read in there. Hell, imagine I've already flipped and come up green, who are your two scum reads? | ||
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On January 30 2013 14:10 jaybrundage wrote: I think you both are scummy. However the one that is scummier and should be lynched today is the part that im having trouble with. I find nothing wrong with reevaluating my reads based on what i read in in the filter or based off other peoples opinion's In the end I will consolidate on the wagon I think is mostly likely to flip scum. In the event that you flip green then on to lynch JX. I dont feel comfortable lynching anyone else. Out of the claimed roles we have Lamp-Townie xsksc-green checked Prom-Null EZ-Null JX-Scummy Sharrant-Scummy If Sharrant and JX dont flip red then i would move on to my null reads while constantly changed my reads based on there posts. I want a read. You can give me a single read, and that's perfectly fine. I just want a read, on anyone. I would love for you to give me reads on myself, JX, and Prom. That'd be fantastic. What I don't want is another list or fluff post from you. @Everyone Is this normal for Jay? He seems to really be avoiding saying anything, and is just resorting to list posts to fill in the gaps. I asked him to show me something scummy, and he just posted the same list again but slightly larger. | ||
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@SS I'm not particularly convinced on that one, it was just something I thought was interesting enough to bring up. I'm not interested in lynching either of you today, don't get me wrong there. I think there's better targets like JieXian and Jay unless he starts posting reads instead of lists. If you and Prome are scum together then I believe it will show as we get closer to the end game, so it's not a theory I'm willing to test yet. | ||
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I find Jay much scummier than JX (list posts, never backing up a read, lots of empty posts), but I find it more comforting that there's two really strong town reads ofmine on the JX wagon. Jay and JX both fit the mould when looking at players who would make sense as one of Thrawn's teammates. Jay/Hapa not being around to defend or push other reads. JX because he hopped onto Thrawn a few hours before he made the post, but he seemed quite sure of Thrawn being scum for weird reasons (I don't think it would be crazy for Thrawn to let JX know that he would be mostly AFK for Day 1 a while before making the post to give him a decent headstart on the wagon). That said I might be being paranoid, his early vote on the wagon is pretty townie, even if his reasons were not. ##vote JayBrundage | ||
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On January 31 2013 05:55 Promethelax wrote: okay, so Supes can you explain your mass claim plan? what you were hoping to gain from it and why you haven't followed up on it. I'm also interested in this. I was thinking we had enough people confirmed or mostly confirmed that it would really narrow the search down, but I'm no expert on the set up. | ||
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I'm Vanilla townie. | ||
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On January 31 2013 06:33 EmileZola wrote: So you voted jay. Who do you think is Jays scumbuddy? It's killing me right now, I'm honestly not sure. It almost seems like it'd have to be someone that's in the almost confirmed category. I could see xsksc being his scum buddy, that one makes a fair bit of sense to me. Hapa's scum game becomes fairly obvious by late game, so I don't think he'd take GF for that reason. It would make sense as to why the check on him came back green. JX could be, but I feel it's quite unlikely. There's the possibility that they've been forced into a position where they have to bus each other, which I guess the more I think about it is fairly likely. It would seem like a fairly weak scum team for a town of this calibre though. If Jay is scum I don't think it's possible that Vivax is, makes 0 sense, even though I disagree with a lot of his reads. It's possible he is if Jay is town though. There's a few really unrealistic options that I'm holding back for now because at this point they'd just make things worse. And if you're his scummy buddy then you're safe until end game pretty much regardless, but I think it would show fairly obviously then so I'm not worried about that yet. | ||
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On January 31 2013 06:45 EmileZola wrote: okay townslip. in this setup the roles are random, hapa couldnt chose. sharrant :-) Where is that mentioned? Is it in the OP and I just missed it? | ||
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But this has been nagging me for a bit. I don't think Marv would claim miller, however, he said that he had much less time to play. I know it takes a lot of effort to make his scum game appear like his town game, and this is very time consuming for him. Perhaps rolling scum with a limited amount of time to play made claiming miller a much better chance that the 40% chance of being counter claimed. He has less than 40% chance to die, and it gives him a pretty much free pass to the end game even with limited time to play. | ||
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##vote yamato | ||
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On January 31 2013 07:42 iamperfection wrote: thought you were voting for jay. he is currently being saved right now I would rather have Jay in the game, and give him 72 more hours to show me how he is townie, than a guy who comes in and hard defends him in the one hour per cycle he gives the game. Yamato only showed up to try and derail Jay's lynch. That's real scummy to me. | ||
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On January 31 2013 07:48 EmileZola wrote: If you seriously screw up the Jaylynch with your last-minute shit. I thought about this game for hours now and you jerks won't destroy it with your paranoia and shit. Jay is scum FINALLY. That makes me happy to see, I feel so much more confident about you being town now. ##unvote ##vote Jay | ||
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On January 31 2013 07:49 yamato77 wrote: What am I supposed to do if I think he is town and you're not? Your arguments here are just as bad as your justification for your read on VE. I'd say read the game, maybe play a little. But when you swing in at the final hour to derail the lynch, that's pretty scummy. | ||
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On February 01 2013 03:10 Vivax wrote: Using my logic EZ isn't scum cause he spontaneously replied to suspicion by releasing an ocean of logs. You on the other hand have suspicious targets for lynch and are giving a guy a town-read for a single post with lots of null reads and a scumread that died shortly thereafter. Sharrant wanted to lynch yamato for dicking around and gave EZ an instant town read for not doing that. That doesn't make any fucking sense. Sharrant didn't want to vote for thrawn after calling him suspicious for lurking in the early game, reason he gave: It's a lurker lynch. Sharrant joined the jay wagon late and in a super scummy way, hastily throwing in a few reasons and didn't do shit D2. Sharrant was the guy being attacked by VE shortly before his death. It's one less player against him for the next day. You ignoring all these points and basing your townread on a single post cause it's huge just confirms that you are the likely scumbuddy. Vivax, I'm sorry, I've tried ignoring everything you've taken out of context or twisted because apparently that's what you do. You don't read the thread, you just make shit up as you go along. That's it. You're wrong about why I gave EZ a town read. I gave EZ a town read because it's a hydra made of two people that I expect two spew anger constantly, AND I SAW NONE OF THAT. That was honestly the scummiest thing about him aside from the connection in Prom's post that I pointed out. And then there's finally some anger. Boom, that was the last piece of the puzzle for me to have him as a town read unless Prom flips and flips red at some point. You're damn right I considered Thrawn a lurker lynch. He only had two posts of any substance. As scum he should have had a page of filter in day one, usually a little more than that. I rather would have lynched Prom who I had a scum read on at the time. He had gone so far past the point of lurking I was pretty sure he'd just replace out. He was afk day one, not lurking, there's a difference. I wanted to lynch Yamato for being afk the entire day, up until he comes in and hard defends a guy who has done nothing but sheep and go "this guys scum cuz scum". What the fuck is that? If Thrawn had pulled some bullshit like that, I absolutely would have been on his lynch. Yeah, I had a rough day 2 because I was 100% sure about VE being scum. And he flipped town, along with so many people doing things that looked scummy it was hard for me to actually get a real read except for a bunch of town reads. That left me with a pool of players that I could make pretty similar cases on. Yeah, VE attacked me when I went after him, but you know what? Some of the things he has attacked me for I know I'm right on. Everyone that has flipped that wasn'ton Thrawn's wagon has flipped town, and I'm town. At this point you're just getting annoying. If I have to deal with you constantly trying to get me lynched it's going to make this game annoying to play. Listen to Ghost who had a town read on me right away, just like I had a town read on him. BECAUSE WE BOTH HAD THE SAME THOUGHT PROCESS. Listen to IamP who has had me as a town read for most of the game except when I've been a little too lurky because of outside of game factors. Listen to EZ, two very strong players who are looking INCREDIBLY FUCKING TOWNIE and have me as a town read. Stop twisting my words, stop trying to make a terrible case on me, and start trying to actually lynch scum. I had to deal with this before I reread the rest of the thread. I saw this post and it just pushed my buttons. I'll be around the computer until day post, but probably with a few gaps in there. | ||
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On February 01 2013 03:12 JieXian wrote: Just check me so I don't have to deal with you tomorrow and you better don't claim I'm town because I'm gf >_> I'm not a big believer in scum slips, but this made me laugh. Can someone back me up that I'm reading that right and he put the words backwards? That reads to me as "And you better not claim I'm town because I'm GF". I wouldn't give this much credit, but I had to point it out because it made me laugh. | ||
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On February 01 2013 02:25 Vivax wrote: EZ's huge post moved my prevision to Sharrant>JX>Prom though. I'm interested. You don't have EZ on your scum list, so he's at least null. And his huge post (a long with the posts where he hard defends me) made you put me as your number one scum read? That's baffling to me. Can you please explain this. Okay, I've read through all of EZ's notes a few times now. There's no way he's scum buddies with Prom. I still think Prom has a really good chance of flipping scum at this point, especially with posts like this that IamP pointed out On January 31 2013 11:52 iamperfection wrote: what happened here prom i thought we saw eye to eye on this issue? plus you never mentioned jay in between those two posts looks like to me you were voting for a town read. In my head a Marv/Thrawn/Prom scum team sounds like a properly skilled group out of these players. Yamato has been scummy as all hell since he joined, but I've been reluctant to lynch him on the back of Marv's claim. Prom I had as scum early on but was second guessing myself for a while. I'll drop a bigger post just before the day post, until then everything will be smaller posts. On February 01 2013 04:21 Vivax wrote: Yeah that "slip" looked a little weird, but I believe he simply said that I shouldn't claim "You came back town because you're GF". I'm pretty sure that's what he meant, but it made me laugh so I had to point it out. I put just about 0 weight behind that as a slip. On February 01 2013 04:13 Vivax wrote: Sharrant why so dramatic. Since that alleged scumslip I can't remember pushing you much, you didn't "have to deal with me constantly" at all. Lay out your detailed thoughts, townreads and scumreads for tomorrow please. With 2 blue claims you have no reason to be afraid of talking about your townreads. I haven't been dealing with you constantly because I've felt no need to respond to you because of how terrible your cases were. But this is what I mean + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 02:25 Vivax wrote: EZ's huge post moved my prevision to Sharrant>JX>Prom though. On February 01 2013 02:50 Vivax wrote: Can I know from everyone if they would lynch JX or Sharrant tomorrow? On February 01 2013 03:10 Vivax wrote: Using my logic EZ isn't scum cause he spontaneously replied to suspicion by releasing an ocean of logs. You on the other hand have suspicious targets for lynch and are giving a guy a town-read for a single post with lots of null reads and a scumread that died shortly thereafter. Sharrant wanted to lynch yamato for dicking around and gave EZ an instant town read for not doing that. That doesn't make any fucking sense. Sharrant didn't want to vote for thrawn after calling him suspicious for lurking in the early game, reason he gave: It's a lurker lynch. Sharrant joined the jay wagon late and in a super scummy way, hastily throwing in a few reasons and didn't do shit D2. Sharrant was the guy being attacked by VE shortly before his death. It's one less player against him for the next day. You ignoring all these points and basing your townread on a single post cause it's huge just confirms that you are the likely scumbuddy. On February 01 2013 00:44 Vivax wrote: Scum: EZ + xsksc>Prom>Sharrant Pretty sure about EZ, unsure about everyone else. Assuming that there's only one NK tonight. Do what you want, just posting this for postgame :> On February 01 2013 01:04 Vivax wrote: I think EZ + Sharrant scum team makes sense at this point. On February 01 2013 01:11 Vivax wrote: They've given pretty easy reasons to read each other as town so quickly. I find it weird anyway that you say to a scumread of yours: "OH nice, I'm sure you're town now". A little of confirmation bias should always be there when you genuinely believe that you're talking to scum. I suggest you simply read their filters imagining them as scum team. EZ bussing thrawn with two dangly filters, Sharrant reluctantly calling thrawn a lurker lynch after he suspected him for lurking initially. On February 01 2013 01:13 Vivax wrote: What's even more fishy is that Sharrant gives EZ a townread for doing the exact opposite of what he himself wanted to do: Lynch yamato for his behaviour. That was clearly acting. On February 01 2013 01:17 Vivax wrote: Who's with me to lynch either EZ or Sharrant tomorrow? On February 01 2013 02:24 Vivax wrote: Why do you think Sharrant, Prom and EZ are town? All good scum candidates in my book. Those are just in the last two pages of your filter. So reading just from the flip was pretty frustrating. | ||
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EZ has good reads, and the logs make me certain. There has been some questionable play, but it was cleared up by the logs. Only worried if he makes it to the end game. Djo is most certainly the vig. There's always the possibility of him being SK, but if it is he's already lost the game I'm fairly certain. IamP: Still matching his meta perfectly. Only worried if he makes it to the end game. Vivax: Claim makes him likely town. Possible he's faking but he still falls on the unlikely side of that coin. Everyone else: JX: I had waffled a bit on him before, he's not quite a strong enough read to include him as a town read, but I think he's the least likely of anyone not up there to flip scum in my opinion. I can't really figure out a scum buddy for him, and his reads and his attitude seem very townie. His biggest point against him is his actions around the Thrawn lynch. Yamato: Townie points for the claim, scummy points for his play. I was ready to lynch him last time, I'm still willing to until I see more from him. Mocsta: I think xsksc's play was scummy, but having a green check was big in his favour, knowing now that the Godfather role was a forced role and not a choice for the scum team I am much less convinced by the check. I don't think he's a bad lynch, but I don't think he's a particularly good lynch yet. Actually, a post IamP made just moved him to second on the list, I'll think about it more after this but his point about trying to direct Djo's shot off the person scum did shoot was sometihng I hadn't thought about. Promethelax: I'm pretty sure he's scum, I'm waffling between whether I want him or xsksc to flip first as I could see them being a scum team at this point. | ||
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