EPTI'm back :D Didja miss me?
TL Mafia LIX
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I'm back :D Didja miss me? | ||
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mkfuba07
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mkfuba07
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mkfuba07
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mkfuba07
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I, myself, will not be running for mayor for reasons I feel are obvious to anyone who's seen me play. After a pretty quick read through the thread, I would feel most comfortable voting austin for mayor because he's an option that I'm familiar with. ##Vote austinmcc I still have more reading to do before I get any significant scumreads, but if anyone wants me to answer anything I'll be here for a few hours. | ||
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mkfuba07
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mkfuba07
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On January 21 2013 15:26 debears wrote: This is wrong. So wrong. Vivax had an extensive mayoral post written up before the game, as shown by how quickly he posted it after daypost. His mayoral election run is a null tell But the fact that he posted it so quickly after the game started is, to some people, indicative of his towniness. I agree with them. A scum player would likely wait to post, until after he's discussed it in the QT. I don't think it's 100%, but it has me leaning town for him, and nothing has particularly tipped him back to scum yet. | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 21 2013 15:43 debears wrote: Gonzaw Do you honestly believe a town vivax would see himself good enough to be a good mayor? Hell I purposely didn't post a mayoral election because I decided it wouldn't be beneficial for town when there are vets who are much better than me This is what your previous post got me thinking. I did the same thing, because I knew I wouldn't be as good as many other players in the game. Dammit... I was finally feeling reasonably sure about something, and now I'm unsure what to think again. debears: Do you think vivax is overall null, or just his candidacy? | ||
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mkfuba07
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I'm for an austin, FT, or gonzaw mayor (and sheriff). I think my vote will be switching over to FT though. Austin is the only one of them that I've played with before, so I felt more comfortable with him. However, I've agreed with everything FT's said, and I think he would be the best sheriff atm. I'm ignoring the fact that he's smurfing because I typically don't work on meta anyway, and I think he's a good player based on everything I've seen from him. I feel similarly about gonzaw (minus the smurfing bit), but FT feels like more of a constant to me (if that makes sense), which I think I value in a mayor. As for who I think we should lynch today, I believe a prplhz lynch is best. I'm a bit troubled because iirc I always find prplhz scummy early, but every time I read one of FT's posts about him I'm re-convinced. I'm going to try to start dealing with specifics instead of the generics I've been using to this point, since I feel like I finally have some kind of handle on the game XD | ||
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On January 22 2013 04:59 sandroba wrote: Yes, definitely. I'm wary on lynching prpl based on FT voters. Oats may still not be mafia, i don't think mkfuba can. Also I'm back to JX being likely scum based on how the thread is going and his activity after his suspicion faded away. You actually think it's impossible for me to be town based on my posts? I'll be the first to admit that I'm bringing little to the table right now (no one is constantly aware of it as much as I am), but I'm giving what I can. I don't see how I'm 100% scum, especially when I know that it's just the opposite. I find that people frown upon reads based on unexplained "feelings", which is pretty much all I have regarding everyone in this game thus far. Things that other people have latched onto as significant evidence of town or scum aren't really convincing me. I don't know if I'm just not following, or I disagree. I guess I'm mainly just waiting for my "A-ha!" moment, the one where I feel something's up, and am able to pinpoint its source. Until then, I'm roughly an observer. That's why I ask for questions, to force my own involvement. To give me a means of entering the game. Otherwise, I'll just argue with myself instead of posting in the thread. I did it in the game you linked, as well. As for what I said sounding "fake", I don't know what to tell you. I felt like I finally had something to latch onto. That got taken away. Now all I have are a few town reads, and some "maybe scum" reads that I'm basically taking from the people I'm thus far trusting. What I said was how I felt. | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 22 2013 06:19 Vivax wrote: Wouldn't it be funny if I just hit scum with my time-zone-unawareness-argument and no one still commented on this or how JX dodged my question? He clearly lied about it. Could just have said: "Meh, didn't think about it". Doesn't it make him look like he knows he's guilty? This question is especially relevant for the people thinking he's town. Is that really indicative of him being scum, though? He may have assumed US for one reason or another. Why is scum more likely to make that mistake than town? | ||
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On January 22 2013 03:18 JieXian wrote: Edit: Vivax just noticed you didn't have a tag If that's not his mistake, then which mistake did he not comment on? | ||
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On January 22 2013 06:46 Vivax wrote: You all (debears, mkfuba, austin) must be really super-convinced that austin and JX are town if you flak me like that for a tentative scum read. What exactly do you want me to do? Isn't it electing austin? To lynch whom? Stutters for playing like I know him from D1? No thanks. Look, I find people suspicious who shovelled shit at me for my absence. I find people super suspicious who instead of posting their reasoning about it (like gonzaw did=semi-admitting that it wasn't a good point and in the end null cause I was sleeping) write that they had a reason to do so cause of some outer reason that has nothing to do with their thinking (the US tag), which then turns out to be wrong. When called out for it, they don't answer. Tell me, wouldn't you suspect scum behind it? You seem to be really convinced that he is town. I'm not "flakking" you. I didn't understand what you're actually saying. Like, it struck me as strange that he said your tag was US when you had no tag, but he immediately corrected that mistake. I then considered if that made him scummy. I decided it didn't. You are saying that he didn't call attention to his mistake, which he (somewhat) did by editing what he said. So either you think he's scum for something that didn't happen, or I misunderstood the situation. I think I understand you now, so I'm gonna wait and see how JX responds. But don't put words in my mouth and expect me to take it. I said nothing about JX being town. I said I didn't see how your issues with him made him scum. | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 22 2013 07:27 Vivax wrote: If you don't think JX is town, then maybe you should let him respond to my argument by himself. Good that you bring up annul, FT. Would you deem him lynch worthy? Exactly what I said. | ||
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Alright, worked my way through Vivax's case, as well as the relevant parts of gonzaw and JX's filters. In all honesty most of the case had me thinking, "I do this, and I've never been scum... How is it really a scumtell?" I'm aware that I'm typically I'm a big question mark on everyone's spreadsheets, but I've never been mislynched for it (vigi'd once though). That's also pretty much all I've done this game so far (aside from voting for FiveTouch and a prplhz lynch), so it made me wonder what the difference was. I guess the supposed difference is that JX explicitly expresses the idea that multiple people are scummy, and then questions other people about other people instead. I guess I could see where Vivax is coming from, somewhat. I don't feel like it's enough to make me want to lynch JX. Fortunately, JX himself responded to the case in the time it's taken me to write this, so I don't need to go all speculative (or at least type up all the speculation whirling through my head). I actually liked his answer. His explanation, while perhaps one that could be faked, gives him a couple of townie points in my eyes. It's the answer I was looking for when it popped up in the thread. | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 23 2013 04:38 yamato77 wrote: Austin, I already outed Grush as mason. Are people reading my filter? I think austin is still working through the thread. He just came to sandroba's mason discussion I think. I'm also interested in what people (particularly grush) have to say about the yamato/grush mason post, but I don't really know what to make of it either. A quick question that I think I know the answer to but I want to confirm. Are bodyguards alerted to the fact that they're bodyguards, or do only the elected officials know who they are? | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 23 2013 04:49 yamato77 wrote: Fuba, what is your natural inclination about Grush's alignment given what he's posted, and the mason PMs I posted? My natural inclination is keeping him as null/slight scum. I don't really know how to discern between a town and mafia grush, and his play this game so far doesn't have me leaning far one way or the other. I'm used to him being more active as town, if not necessarily useful. I certainly don't see him as useful thus far, but I could say that about a few people. I would say he might be a good vig hit, but if he's a town blue role then I wouldn't want to sacrifice that based on what we've seen so far. I can understand why you brought the PMs to the thread, but I don't know what to make of them either. | ||
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mkfuba07
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First of all: ##Vote: Double Lynch I hadn't actually considered not using the double lynch until austin commented on it, but I think it's a good idea. Lynches are our only guaranteed means of catching scum (guaranteed meaning we always have one, not with 100% accuracy). If we can double up on them, I say we do it. He also raises a good point, that there's always the possibility that the mayor will be killed and we'll lose our extra votes. I like our mayor's votes. Second: @annul: FiveTouch has said he's not Palmar multiple times. You've admitted he has a different posting style. On January 23 2013 20:57 annul wrote: what the fuck is "IC" And this took me a while to remember, but "IC" is innocent child, I think. Do you have a reason for voting Dearestsnot other than omgus or his personal attacks? I know you said you'd "eventually" explain it. So... please? :D Third: Regarding Annul, I don't feel he's behaving as scummy as others believe. I wouldn't really call his most recent play "pro-town", but based on the only game I've played with him (Liquid City Mafia), he reacts severely (some would say childishly) to personal attacks. I'm not normally one to delve too deeply into past games (primarily because it takes me so damn long to read, haha), but I did it in this case because I felt something was off about my own impression of him. Turns out I was thinking of him as Acrofales from Acme Mini Mafia, which naturally skewed my view a bit. In any case, based on what I believe I understand of him from LCM, his current actions are understandable from a town annul's POV. Additionally, I kind of agree with what sandroba said about him earlier. There are a few posts he made that make me feel he's town. Long story short, see more evidence at the moment of angry, unappreciated town annul than scum annul. Of course, now that I've decided I don't like an annul lynch I should put another one up in its place. I'll get to thinking about that, haha. Anyone who played in/obsed LCM, was annul's play unusual for him that game? Or anyone who feels like taking a look at his filter from that game, can you point out distinct differences between his play both games? @yamato: Why the unexplained unvote? You were dead set on an annul lynch. | ||
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On January 24 2013 04:10 Vivax wrote: Scum Yamato, british empire mm + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2013 11:41 yamato77 wrote: Excuse me for having other things to do in my life besides prove to town that you are scum. Are you going to do anything today besides defend yourself? Poorly,I might add. I bring up plenty of points besides just the useful discussion point. You cannot deny it looks like straight up post-hoc rationale. You didn't intend to look scummy with your shit but now that you do and you realize people see it that way you're making up bullshit excuses for your shit play. I'm dine with reading your useless posts. It is in town's best interest to see you hang. ##Vote: Mr Cheesecake On January 08 2013 07:48 yamato77 wrote: Is your only response to my suspicion of you "lol"? Let's say I vote you tomorrow with case attached, are you going to just lol that too? Fucking useless. On January 06 2013 19:02 yamato77 wrote: Xatalos what the fuck is that post? How is Shiao voting for a lurker who eventually got replaced scummy? He wants him to be more active, and somehow that's scum motivated? His stances are not weak. He's been putting pressure on me since he made the post, and he wants to do so to you. It's not like he's just saying shit to say it. And then this gem "I guess it's about time to finally cast a vote" Or in other words: "I'm going to put this riiiiight here. Hopefully town doesn't think I'm scummy for this!" That shit is weak, bro. Town Yamato + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 06:07 yamato77 wrote: I told you why I'm voting for you and your responses didn't help anything. I have plenty of reason. Other people may have read this and thought the same things. Why is sheeping people with good reads a bad thing anyway? On December 21 2012 06:11 yamato77 wrote: Convince me on Vivax then. If he's so scummy make an updated case with more content. All you've done is post your read and then ask everyone else what they thought of your read. That doesn't feel like scum hunting to me. On December 21 2012 06:19 yamato77 wrote: The differ pence is focus. You keep saying Vivax is scum but you've spent a lot more time discrediting Palmer than pushing your read on Vivax. You are not scum hunting. You are throwing shit at a town player. This is my point. I'm not being hypocritical because my focus is squarely set on you. You're scum, I'm voting for you, and I'm pushing my read and defending the case. You are doing none of these things. Wiggles was really mafia in this game when yamato was talking to him. As you see, two different styles of talking to his scumreads. But check his meta for yourself guys. Hmmm... I'm in class at the moment, but this is interesting. I'll take a better look at yamato once I'm home. | ||
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mkfuba07
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 Regarding Yamato: I had town on yamato before Vivax posted his town/scum comparison, but his post did convince me to take a closer look at his meta. The followup from many players in the game who have actually played with yamato before (I don't believe I have...) saying that he's clearly town by his meta relieves me of that burden. Regarding Annul: Thanks dearestsnot for laying out your thoughts on him like that. I see where you're coming from now. I still think he's not the best lynch today, and I'd like to see more out of him. The way he was acting at the end made me feel like he had something to reveal to prove he's town. That may not be the case, but we'll see when he starts posting again. Regarding Oats: Much the way I felt about prplhz, I feel about Oats. It's not that their situations were necessarily similar. But while I, myself, haven't picked up on any particular scumminess on my own, when I read what certain people say about why he's scum, I find myself agreeing with them. | ||
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On January 24 2013 08:06 Vivax wrote: So you didn't take a closer look at his meta, you will just believe what others said about it? If you did, can you give us an own conclusion? Not so fast, expand on these points. Be precise about why you think he's scum please. No, I didn't take a closer look at his meta. I would have done so, but I respect FT's insight in the matter. There's also the fact that reading through at least two of his games would take me hours, and it's likely to turn up as little more than "he was aggressive there" and "he was less aggressive there". While I admit that what you posted swayed me, what I've heard from FT, as well as my feelings about yamato prior to your post, are enough for me to plant him rather firmly as town. As for why I believe oats is scum, I'll get a more detailed list of reasons shortly (shortly could be a while XD). | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 24 2013 08:23 grush57 wrote: Also whether or not Vivax's reads are bad, I don't think he is scum. Agreed. | ||
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On January 24 2013 08:18 Vivax wrote: No one interested in FT masons? *snip* I'm interested, but I'm not going to ask him to out two masons, both of whom he thinks are town, just to sate my curiosity. | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 24 2013 08:30 Vivax wrote: Hey grush, what did you want to achieve by contacting a town yamato and then doing almost nothing? Any more conversations? @ mkfuba Do you have a read on gonzaw? I thought he was town most of the way through D1 iirc (I believe I even said I would be willing to vote him for mayor after FT or austin), but I haven't given him too much thought since then. I'll get a better read out after I've pinpointed what I find most compelling about FT's case against oats. Actually have to run to the store now. Updates will be delayed, but I'll try try try to get them in before I get to bed tonight. | ||
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mkfuba07
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The first issue raised with oats, I believe, was his unnecessary defense of JX. I didn't find this particularly convincing, but it made me a bit suspicious. He was still rather null imo, but my attention was drawn. After that, it kind of steadily increased in scumminess with each thing FT mentioned. Oats bending peoples' words for unknown reasons, showing evidence of not having read the thread, possible voting reasoning contradictions (stutters vs prplhz). I somewhat dismissed most of it, because I could see myself doing these things accidentally as town (in fact, I later felt like I kind of unnecessarily defended JX myself). I also, generally speaking, tend to give the benefit of the doubt. So whenever someone raises a point, I'll kind of naturally give more weight to the defense. However, when I couple the BOTD with the fact that my feelings regarding oats kept inching towards scum, the evidence for scum outweighs the BOTD I always feel. On January 24 2013 06:51 FiveTouch wrote: The problem with Oats is that he just lies or contradicts himself repeatedly. I can't reconcile it with him being town at all. Here's me pressuring him in obviously quite a serious manner: He defends himself from what I said: So the reason that he's not suspicious of players this game, completely unlike his most recent game, is that he's shy, he's taking a backseat. Except he's now asserting he's actually more confident: And that him being shy is a joke: So him being shy is a joke. So, back to my original, valid point - why is Oatsmaster not suspicious of people this game and pointing fingers and making cases? It can't be because he's shy, because that was a joke. But then, in fact, there's no answer for it at all and the point stands. His whole play this game is marred by contradictions such as these, and his meta heavily supports him being mafia. This is the post that finally significantly convinced me, and made me put my thoughts down in writing. It's an inconsistency that I believe indicates a scum trying to piece together the lies he was required to make to account for his previous scummy play. It's kind of a grand conclusion that wraps everything up with a nice little red bow. All of that being said, I think that dearestsnot raises a good point. It might be best to let oats live in any case, if we have a better (or even possibly slightly worse) scum read to go off of. On that note, I'm going to take a closer look at gonzaw, chenizu, and broodking. At the moment, my read of gonzaw is still the same as before (was town most of d1, haven't paid much attention since), chenizu is an enigma, and I'd kind of like to know more from the people he's actually spent time with throughout the game (as he doesn't seem to have spent as much time in the main thread as apparently expected), and broodking is slightly scummy simply by merit of his relative absence. Of the three, I would be most willing to vote for BKE at the moment. | ||
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mkfuba07
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##Vote: gonzaw | ||
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On January 25 2013 07:09 austinmcc wrote: Thread got so dead and I don't want to spam it up. Is anyone around that isn't Vivax or Acro? Is anyone interested in considering a frame? I've got to run to dinner soon, may or may not be back before lynch, but I keep refreshing and am getting this sinking feeling that everyone slapped a vote down and zoned out, waiting for the lynch. I'm here. Just... thinking. I feel like it would be kind of ridiculous for Vivax to be lying about his role at this point in the game. Most people seem to think he's town, despite his play, myself included. I still think he is. But imagining him as scum fakeclaiming to lie like this after most of the thread finds him town is... doubtful. So I'd say that I don't think vivax is scum. A framer, I suppose, is a possibility. I considered it lightly, and dismissed it because I found the role itself to be an unlikely one used to frame. Now I'm giving it more consideration. The possibilities are: (1) gonzaw is a scum jack + mason who didn't use his mason power for two days, and (2) mafia, whoever they are, have decided that jack + mason is the best frame they could give someone. This has me going around in circles, because it comes back to the question of "would mafia not use their mason powers for some reason?" If (1), then why would he not have used the power? If (2), then why did scum think we would believe that he was a mason that didn't use his power? Now here's what makes me believe (1) over (2). If he was framed, then scum's plan has succeeded. They have a red check, on someone that many people were questioning throughout the day. They, for some reason, framed him with a role that would be most questionable, but no one has explained the answer to the question. It feels too half-assed for a frame that succeeded in all matters of chance related to it. They framed gonzaw, Vivax investigated gonzaw. These were the variables, and they fell properly. Why hasn't the nail been driven in? ...Though I suppose it could be meant simply as a distraction from one of the other top lynch contenders during D1/N1. But if so, why choose such a silly role? Say he's framer, and there's far less doubt. On that note, Do all millers show up as goons to DT checks, or are they assigned roles as well? | ||
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On January 25 2013 08:37 Vivax wrote: How would you know, as a townie, that gonzaw didn't mason people? Pretty sure he said he didn't mason anyone. If he masoned anyone, they would know he is mason, and still haven't said anything. This means he masoned two scum, and proceeded to lie about it. This question is ridiculous. | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 25 2013 08:41 Vivax wrote: Why would you assume from someone who should be most likely scum from your perspective that he didn't mason anyone just cause he didn't say it? Or the people masoned didn't? I don't really understand the question, but right now he's being lynched. If he is scum, and he masoned someone, then proceeded to lie about it, then there should be at least one townie among the two people he masoned to come out and say he's lying. Otherwise he masoned two of his own scumbuddies... If he is town and he's lying about masoning, then he's not really playing to his wincon, is he? | ||
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Guess I'm looking at yamato and mocsta today. I'm excited~ On January 26 2013 12:55 yamato77 wrote: Do I need to explain why I'm not mafia to everyone in the thread or can we all agree to not be stupid and lynch BKE/Chez? Please explain :D @Vivax, did you vote yamato based on a DT check? Because announcing to the thread who you're investigating is a good way to get them to frame him. Just sayin'. Also, not releasing what you found is... ugh... | ||
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mkfuba07
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On January 26 2013 13:05 yamato77 wrote: Oh, looks like Chez is suddenly not a good lynch if I think Annul is town. Hm. That gives me something to do. What are the chances Annul and Chez are both mafia? That claim then ensures that Chez lives for one more cycle and Annul lives until lylo. Unless we lynch him to find out if he's lying. It'd be a triple lynch that way, no? I like that idea. Hmmm... interesting. However, I don't think annul is scum, so I'm averse to the idea of lynching him <.< | ||
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I'd actually like to know what FT thinks of their conclusion. | ||
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Also I would vote for mocsta over you based on the feelings I have after reading the thread without serious consideration. Now the consideration begins. | ||
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On January 26 2013 13:26 yamato77 wrote: Why are you blindly following their conclusions? I don't know if I've read an original read from you the whole game. Maybe I should lynch you. Go ahead. You'll just be wrong. Though I've never been mislynched, so I'd prefer to keep that trend going. | ||
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mkfuba07
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Anyway, I've decided that neither of you feel like scum to me, mostly based on general activity as well as voting (yamato) and something Chezinu said (mocsta). That might change if Chezinu doesn't flip red, but I'll get to that when I get to it. Could someone remind me again why clarity/Adam is rather confirmed in many peoples' eyes? I went through his filter and while I see some townie posts I didn't feel it was enough to rule him out. Is there some meta I missed? Same for axelgreaser, though I haven't gone through his filter yet. What is the townread on him centered around? (for the two previous questions, please don't just tell me to read the thread. I'm sure all the information's in here, and I've read every single post. The info probably just slipped by me. Whether you think I'm scum or town, having me continue to talk is good for town. If you have the info readily available off the top of your head, share it.) @toad: Imagine for a second that fuba isn't scum. Who would you vote next? | ||
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On January 27 2013 00:53 yamato77 wrote: Notice how he was responding to me until I gave a summary if his filter and concluded he was mafia. Fuba I think is fifth mafia. I'm going to make my case. Brb Haha, I sat there for a while thinking of how to respond to you, but I figured I would just get some sleep and start filtering in the morning. It's funny how I'm scum if I defend myself AND if I don't defend myself. Anyway, I'm here now. I'd prefer to stick to talk of the fifth mafia, because Chez and BKE seem like a foregone conclusion. I'm trying to find anything I believe to be errors in logic regarding the "confirmed townies" because, especially if chez or bke aren't scum, toad at least seems to be completely off track (this isn't an accusation, I just normally respect his thought process, and if he's wrong on 2/3 of the remaining scum, we all probably have to rethink things). | ||
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##Vote: Chezinu All I care about is the last scum, because it's not me, and I don't particularly feel like it's yamato or mocsta. Am I the only one in the game who doesn't have debears, stutters, axle, and clarity ruled out? (Again, apologies for missing these,. I'm sure I remember reading something about all of them, but I can't remember for the life of me. In any case, answering me helps town more than yelling at me for not noting it down when I read it the first time.) Also, Vivax, is it time to disclose what you found last night? Because you accuse FT of being scum for (among other incorrect reasons) not releasing who masoned him (which isn't scummy), but you turn around and refuse to divulge your DT check (something that is just infuriating). ...Please? Gotta go walk the dog, be back soon if anyone wants to talk a bit. | ||
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Hmmm, I'll become suspicious of vivax if he actually ended up investigating you. | ||
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On January 27 2013 02:01 Chezinu wrote: You do know you guys aren't lynching mafia? Do you mean that both of you aren't mafia, or that you aren't? Who would you suggest we replace you with? | ||
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On January 26 2013 13:37 yamato77 wrote: Idk. On one hand, you seem like you put in effort, but the parts of your filter dedicated to giving your own reads and talking about your own thoughts instead of the thoughts or reads of other players are few and far between. You also comment a lot on pointless shit. I could see a first time mafia player playing like you. You summarize a lot and agree with strong townies the whole game. You're super fucking blendy. When I get home I may indeed start campaigning for your lynch. I hope I'm not taking a page out of Vivax's book, but how exactly am I putting in work and not putting in work at the same time? Perhaps if you point out some of the pointless shit I could explain why I mentioned it. I'm pretty sure I had reasons for saying everything I've said. | ||
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mkfuba07
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You didn't understand the actual question, but it's rather irrelevant now. Almost everything I've written had a purpose in my eyes. Sorry if you don't see it. And I never said I haven't actually read. I somewhat understand not taking what I WAS saying seriously, however, but I expect that to change today. As for who we should lynch after BKE/Chez, I don't know. That's what I'm trying to figure out. Do you have any responses for my questions? | ||
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On January 27 2013 02:59 Stutters695 wrote: I see most of those reasons as valid. The first half of the game, I was kind of stymied by an "if you're right, you're right" situation. I found FT's reads incredibly compelling. I couldn't find anything I could add. I can't explain why I didn't really have any reads of my own. Things just didn't come together in my head.You're right, I was thinking of BKE I believe. Seeing your most recent thing about checking filters made me think of it. But yours isn't much better. What original reads have you done? Why should we believe you're town when you've asked a question or two, not followed it up or just sheeped a vets reads all game. I have a really similar meta to you so I understand when you can't play for a while the goal is living so you can help later, but I don't see an eagerness to help. I'm seeing all of the survival traits without any sort of care for how the town does and that concerns me because it's almost exactly how I would play scum for my first time. As for your questions, I'm not sold in them being town but I do agree that the odds are incredibly likely that the scum are out of you four (I have a slight town read on mocsta because his play feels different from newbie xxxv but since the circumstances are so different I can't say he's outright town h. In any case, I'm working on correcting my play this game (and hopefully my play for games to come). Something happened yesterday afternoon that seems to have alleviated much of my anxiety while playing mafia, so don't be surprised to see me change playstyles completely. I'm gonna plan on not writing any more defense posts until I've got someone to replace myself with on toad's list. At the moment I'm reading axle's filter to confirm his towniness for myself. @toad: do you have any responses to my questions? If any of it is some kind of extra information read based on masoning, then there's no need to explain it to me I guess. Just know that I'll be trying to go through almost everyone's filters today (D3), and if there's some undeniable proof that you could share it would save me, potentially, a great amount of time. I suppose I'll just ask to be very explicit. Oats and Axle are both 100%, undeniably, town? | ||
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On January 27 2013 04:05 Toadesstern wrote: Sorry no time right now, have to leave  Anyways I wouldn't say 100% sure, I'd say at least 90% sure though. There's a fair chance (as in a chance that isn't 0%) I'm wrong on them but I can confirm that easily myself, I just need some time and I can explain it the next cycle, so give me that time and ignore them for today. It's just wasted time as even if one of BKE / Chez is town other people are more likely mafia. And no, has nothing to do with mason powers or knowledge. See you. Might be back online around 01:00 am my time for an hour or something like that. Alright, I'll stop going through axle's filter for now. I guess I'll pick through the shorter ones that I'm unsure of before I catch my train back home (I'll be afk from at least 4 to about 8pm, CST). | ||
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On January 27 2013 02:04 mkfuba07 wrote: Do you mean that both of you aren't mafia, or that you aren't? Who would you suggest we replace you with? First question kinda answered by your previous post. How about the second? | ||
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On January 25 2013 16:45 Chezinu wrote: oats and BKE sound good right now. Then I'll look into mocsta and grush, which seems that the circles have more knowledge about. But truthfully, I'm going to wait and see who 5touch votes for. As I said, it's dependent on what he flips, but I don't believe he would put up BKE and then throw his other scumbuddy up there with him. A bit wifom-y looking back, but it's enough for me at the moment. And now I feel dumb, because I'm quoting the post where he answers my question... So I guess I'll ask another. @Chezinu: Is this still your stance? Have you looked into mocsta and grush yet? In-post edit: Just saw your vote for grush. Have anything to add to it? | ||
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Are you finally revealing your check? Or just pointing out that you're withholding it? | ||
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On January 27 2013 11:15 annul wrote: okay good, this is what i wanted to hear. if you have a red that is not chez or BKE, then the game is over. Would you mind explaining this to me? | ||
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On January 26 2013 13:21 yamato77 wrote: The fact that you find Annul more likely town than me is mind boggling. Maybe I should lynch you for being stupid. Ugh this game is getting to me. First, an apology. I did finally go through your whole filter, and there's no way I'm voting for you this game. I don't feel like it even requires explanation. I still have filters to go through, but I finally have a possible scumread. Unfortunately, I'm not ready to give it yet. It still feels a bit too much like my ridiculous case in acme. I need flips. Until then I'll keep looking through filters. | ||
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What makes me believe it's possible is that scum weren't given specific roles. They were able to hand them out to whoever, as long as it was before the end of D1. Who is someone that many people were absolutely convinced was town D1, but is now showing significant anti-town signs? Vivax. I have yet to complete his filter (it is so very, very long) but there are a few things that I believe could indicate a scum Vivax.
I'm sure there's more. You can see why I wanted to wait for a scum flip (hopefully two, tonight) to reveal what I was thinking. It still feels like my acme case in that there's a significant bit of speculation involved, but much of that speculation goes away when scum flips. This one feels more legitimate. I don't believe I've overstepped the bounds of reason or am satisfying a confirmation bias. As I said earlier, if it is possible, I believe it is probable. Since Vivax isn't likely to be lynched based on what I have now, I'm keeping my votes on BKE and Chezinu. Sorry annul, but I'm only voting for people I think are scum, and right now that list only contains BKE, Chezinu, and Vivax. It also just so happens that when the first two flip they might confirm/deny the third. I might find another possible alternative as I go through more filters, but this is where I stand at the moment. I'll look into mocsta, just because I felt that his mason discussion with you as well as the posts to yourself and Adam were antagonistic, but I felt townie about him for most of the game, and I think my filterdive will reaffirm that. | ||
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On January 27 2013 23:14 Vivax wrote: Nono wait: I said before I got a red check back. Now Mocsta comes in and says that he assumes I got a green check back from checking yamato. How the fuck does that makes sense? Mocsta is scum. You didn't say you got a red check. You said we were lynching your target today. There is a significant difference. Both of those posts are lies. | ||
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I think those voting for me are looking at this the wrong way. Did you think my grand scum plan was to passively lynch all of my scummates without gaining any towncred for it? You're right in that I was "blendy". Town has lynched only scum so far. I am town. | ||
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On January 28 2013 02:01 Vivax wrote: Wow really? They are lies? Oh shit, dude. You got me. So you admit to voting moscta based on a lie? That's almost all the proof I need. | ||
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Is the number of mafia masons limited to 2? And is it possible for scum to have more than one of each role? | ||
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On January 27 2013 02:54 BroodKingEXE wrote: This is really unfortunate. Bad luck this week with business. I'm Mad Hatter, I'm like 90% sure I'm not going to be able to make it past the next day, so it would be better if a vig shot me tonight and I put my bomb on someone. | ||
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On January 28 2013 08:26 Mocsta wrote: All My vote is going on Chezinu + Vivax I never ruled out a bus from Vivax, due to the consistent anti-town play. This sparked my curiosity over night. (It is clutching at straws a bit, but the release is just too convenient not to ride with considering all of Vivax actions this game) This is specifically something, Chezinu raised to me via mason PM (and I assume Chezinu and his other masons) Its from the 6 weapons of influence: #1 Reciprocity, #2 Consistency, #3 Social Proof, #4 Liking, #5 Authority, #6 Scarcity Check this out. See why now I used the word Liked.. its due to Chez saying #4 The below is me antagonising Chez using his own "code words" I never thought he was town, but I didnt have anything to directly suggest he was scum. The problem is.. again.. Vivax release of jsut the word "reciprocity" it has brought me back to Chezinu.. Vivax said they didn't mason, so now im thinking scum qt... (had to rush this to get it out b4 lynch deadline) I understand how you believe this associates Chezinu with Vivax in a scummy way. But why would scum Vivax knowingly use a code word that should only be known to Chez and his masons? And am I only bumped up to the top of the list if you decide not to lynch Vivax or Annul? @All who have masoned or been masoned by Chezinu, could we see your logs? | ||
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On January 28 2013 19:16 Mocsta wrote: The logs between Chez and I as promised. I am posting this incase I am a target for the NK for whatever reason I do not have the IRC stuff, but that is where we discussed the 6 weapons of influence etc (i.e. #1 reciprocity etc) Anyways, of note.. Chezinu says: Chez is now confirmed mafia, and says he not sure if Grush is town. WHAT is weird. is.. Chezinu says "Grush like yam!"... this was WAY before yamato came out and said Grush mason him. Im not sure what to make of this... just got home from another bbq, so not in the mood to think. Thanks. I'll take a better look at the logs when I wake up. On January 28 2013 19:45 annul wrote: did chez use his ability on yamato, or is yamato also a mason and yamato used his power to talk to chez? I'm pretty sure yamato masoned chez. I'm not sure who chez masoned D1. Do we know who grush masoned D2, D3? It seems he also missed his second vote, so he's kind of on my mind. | ||
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I don't see how it would be a scumslip, and I'm not even sure it's a bold assumption. I'd have to check filters again, but I remember phrases such as "the two who masoned Chezinu yesterday masoned me today", and they made me think this way. I'm not even gonna ask you to explain why it's a scumslip though, because I know I'm not mafia, and I'm back to thinking you're town. @All: Who did Chez mason D1? @yamato: Do you have your chezinu logs? @FT: Same question, but might I also ask for the D2 logs of you with mocsta and yamato? | ||
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On January 29 2013 02:12 yamato77 wrote: Also, I have my logs but they really, really don't matter. Would you mind posting them anyway before the daypost? | ||
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Is it possible for there to be more than one of each mafia role (excluding mason)? The OP seems a bit ambiguous and I could read it either way. I PM'd BC, but no response yet. | ||
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On January 29 2013 07:18 FiveTouch wrote: I keep asking you things and you keep not replying. Are you a mason? If so, who have you masoned every day? fuba: Mocsta and Yamato are free to post our logs, but they take a lot of effort getting all the threads together. Mostly I'm talking to them about Oats and trying to stop them ranting (especially yamato) at Vivax in-thread. Alright, thanks. On January 29 2013 06:20 mkfuba07 wrote: Would you mind posting them anyway before the daypost? Scratch this. Just tell me when he first responded to you plz? | ||
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Anything specific you'd like me to talk about? | ||
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On January 29 2013 08:42 FiveTouch wrote: fuba, given you sat on your mafia-read on Vivax for a while, why the sudden change of mind? It's really hard to explain why I find vivax town, haha Yesterday/last night I went through much of the game, and it reminded me why I found him town in the first place. I had started filtering his posts through my own opinions of the game thus far. I found the fact that he's suspicious of everyone in the game suspicious. His suspicion seemed too widespread and volatile (I felt like he jumped from trust and distrust too quickly). I also thought that BKE was going to flip scum, so half of the things he was saying, seeming to imply some scum relationship between two players, seemed like he was leaving his options open under the guise of lunacy. I thought that scum selected him as godfather after much of town said they found him really town so he could impersonate a DT, then unveiled himself as a "guaranteed" town based on his D1 and the gonzaw lynch. The role speculation, which I should really stop doing because the excitement at believing I've cracked the scum roles seems to turn me into a moron, really messed with me. The fact that there was already a flipped DT made me question the validity of the other claim, and his play after becoming "confirmed" just seemed disruptive and argumentative. After the flip and reading through the thread again, it felt like all of my suspicions were gone. There were still two scum, which was why I was searching for "last scum" type play. The godfather + mad hatter flip forced me to reconsider the likelihood of there being two DTs. As I said in the original post, if it is possible, I thought it was probable. I find it, not impossible, but incredibly unlikely. The read through the thread gave me a clearer picture of vivax than my memories did, and I could see reason behind what he said. I mean, some of it was ridiculous, but I no longer think he was behaving maliciously. | ||
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To answer mocsta's questions (sorry it's... er... late): I was asking for logs for a comparison. I was still unsure about mocsta's alignment, and I found it unlikely that scum chenizu and scum mocsta would have prepared an extra set of convo logs. I wanted yamato's to compare the two, which was why I was waiting for his. Mocsta responded so quickly I doubted they were faked, but a fake conversation between two scum would look different than a true convo between a scum and a townie. I wanted to see them anyway just to gain any information I could, but I accepted FT and yamato's responses, since I'd found someone I was more interested in. I've got a case on austin coming up, but it could take a bit. Or I could just post the first bit and discuss it while writing up the next bit? I'll probably do that. @FT: It was obvious for me. But I also thought his actions were reasonable at the time. If we could have found someone else to lynch, I would probably have voted differently based on my annul read. You're making me question him now, though. Especially the quote vivax pointed out. | ||
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So, my theory is that it was mafia's intention to get chez elected mayor D1. if you read this post: On January 20 2013 23:51 austinmcc wrote: How do I feel about the mayoral election is...vague. I feel like we should elect a mayor. I'd prefer to elect someone whose judgment and reads I trust, and especially someone who I think needs protecting. There's not really much to "feel" about the election. Nor is there a need to say that, because everyone should be looking for the same qualities in their mayoral vote. I would...be mayor if I got voted mayor, but I don't see much need to campaign. If people trust me and want to keep me alive, great, and I'd take it. Overall, I kind of like the idea of electing someone NOT campaigning, or considering it. If someone doesn't campaign and has to get votes naturally, then town votes will gravitate towards the sort of person we really want for mayor. However, I'm not sure about that, because a campaign-focused election means scum has to campaign for mayor to win, be visible, whereas a non-campaign election means scum might have to vote for their scumbuddy to get a scum-mayor and provide reasoning for doing so, perhaps out themselves for later. I don't think that matters much, because (1) any scum running for mayor should be someone they feel can handle the position, and won't get outed just from being visible; and (2) don't think scum are going to go nuts connecting themselves on D1 just to get the mayor position. There's my ramble, enjoy. If I had to vote for someone RIGHT NOW, I'd vote toad or myself. Myself because I'm town and trust myself, so it's the only mayor I could be CERTAIN would be town. Toad because I've found some of his comments townie, and based on LV (I think it was LV) I know that he can be a useful townie when he has mason capabilities. OH HEY, IMPORTANT THING. Since masons choose someone each cycle and then can't mason that person again, one quality I'm SPECIFICALLY looking for in a mayor is someone I trust in mason circles. I have seen toad plot within a mason circle, which makes me think he'd be a good mayor as he can set plans in motion for LATER given only a single cycle with masons (unless I'm giving him too much credit). Mayor gets the lynch today, a vote, the bodyguards, but will also be a key person for the mason roles in this game, both town and mafia. Needs to be able to read the people who mason him, perhaps set plans/traps in motion to figure out which masons were town/mafia, as well as just generally use being the other half of most mason pairs well. I feel that that is an interesting emphasis, given what we know now. Why such strong emphasis on masons? At this point, town austin knew nothing about any masons, because he's a vet. Scum, however, were aware of at least 4 masons at this point. Chez was either aligned with or in direct communication with them. In addition, he appears to have tried to set up some kind of mason communication network that I still don't fully understand. Feasible that they were working together? Austin later feels the need to insert himself into yamato and vivax's conversation/argument/whatever they had in order to tell us that chez should definitely be a candidate, even if he's not voting for him. He says that if you are convinced he's town, he is a top choice. But he is not convinced. Either way, it's a recurring theme in his filter. After it is pretty clear that chezinu isn't getting elected, he comments on gonzaw, saying at least once that he feels gonzaw would be a good candidate, but only if you believe he is town. But austin doesn't believe he's town, so he's not voting for him. He supports their elections, as long as he isn't the one to do it. These were two scum. There's a bit more, but I've gotta head out for a bit. I'll add more when I get back. | ||
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Did you get those significant scums reads... >the first thing I decided upon that I would call a significant scumread was vivax. I actually had my own reasoning behind it. I later decided he wasn't scum for reasons already in the thread. Are you a player that in your experience is likely too... >To have scumreads? Every so often I'll mention one. You may notice one right above your post. If not why promise what wont be coming? >See the answer above. I'm already exhausted, and I still have tons of homework to finish, so I'll just respond to these two points that FT raised. On January 29 2013 01:10 FiveTouch wrote: I'm not really figuring Chez in too heavily to my candidate considerations, he was an outlier. gonzaw/toad/austin were the serious candidates for sherriff, I don't think Chez was ever going to happen. annul, I don't really have any game-changing information or anything that would stop someone being mafia (apart from the one toad knows about). If I implied so / it read so, it shouldn't, my apologies. Chez started off alright. I think they saw an opportunity for a chez mayor. I think austin was trying to encourage the town masons to vote for chez. On January 29 2013 01:36 FiveTouch wrote: The reason that Vivax quoted of bugs is an extremely good reason not to, actually. Three major candidates for sherriff - toad, austin, gonzaw. If both gonzaw/austin are mafia then they shouldn't have been running against each other so late in the day, or they should have been giving themselves options to try to get the other into power. None of these things happened. As for this, I'll just repeat that I think they were trying to get chez elected sheriff. After that didn't pan out, they went for austin or gonzaw sheriff. Probably gonzaw, as austin said he didn't think he (austin) was the best candidate, and chez or gonzaw would be good if found townie. It was like he was trying to convince us (particularly the town masons, but could also somewhat extend to other town) to convince others that chez or gonzaw was townie enough to elect. Poke holes in what I've said, and I'll try to fill them in. It'll probably take less time than me trying to figure it all out on my own and then trying to put it into words. | ||
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Picked it up: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=393344¤tpage=155#3082 Dropped it: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=393344¤tpage=174#3473 My "invitation for you to defend someone else" was not directed at you. The entire second half of my post was directed at the entire thread. No one responded, which is an outcome that I've grown accustomed to due to my playstyle, not to mention how poorly written the posts were. It was mostly directed to those opposing an austin lynch. I think they'll respond the post I'm in the process of writing now, though. | ||
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So there are two scenarios, either Annul told the truth and he’s town, or he lied and he’s scum. We’re actually somewhat fortunate in that his alignment comes down to a single decision in the game. I feel a lot of confusion in the thread regarding what he says he did. This is his explanation, as I believe many/some people understand it:
Now is this the work of town annul, or scum annul? Let’s start with scum. What does scum Annul know? He knows Chezinu is scum, and BKE is town. He knows he is not actually a Mad Hatter, and can only appear as one a maximum of one time (if the final scum is the framer). He also knows that he breadcrumbed Mad Hatter from the beginning of the game for some reason. Who would he choose to “bomb”? Chezinu, of course. What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)? Given that he knows BKE is town, he knows that town is likely headed for a mislynch D3. Probably two, if he is able to switch people off of Chez. He knows he will look quite suspicious if he succeeds in his ploy. He would be in much the same position he is now. So many people were sure of Chez’s scumminess that, having saved him the previous day and leading town to two mislynches, Annul would be right up there with him. They would have one more KP that night, but they would likely sacrifice both their lives. If he failed, what has happened, happens. It becomes known that he tried to save (likely) scum. He has, at most, one night of safety from DT checks. He has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself, and has earned nothing from it. Now let’s look at town Annul. What does town Annul know? He knows he is Mad Hatter. He knows that he finds BKE and Chezinu both to be incredibly likely scum. Who would he choose to bomb? Doesn’t matter, because town Annul thinks they’re both scum. What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)? If he fails, he loses his bomb, and two scum flip (oops). Town might be suspicious of him because of it, but nowhere near as much as we were today due to the BKE flip (oops). But if he succeeds, then he's given town the opportunity to lynch an additional person D3. Whether or not the second person is scum, the KP would still be reduced to 1 permanently because we were still lynching BKE (oops). In addition, town has effectively taken Chezinu hostage, guaranteeing annul's survival as long as Chezinu is alive. That would be 3 guaranteed townies who couldn't be NK'd (FT, toad, and annul) and one "free" scum, leaving us in that 0.000001% situation annul mentioned when he claimed. You will note that all three times I wrote (oops) were times his assumption of BKE flipping scum screwed him over. This perfectly explains why he says his only mistake was BKE. I don't believe that scum annul would risk his own life to save Chezinu given what he would have known. The pros don't outweigh the cons, as he looks suspicious either way. The town annul explanation is far more feasible. I'm about 95% more inclined to believe that town annul had a significant oversight and had trouble explaining himself than I am to believe that scum annul risked his life quite blatantly to save someone who ultimately was likely going to be lynched anyway. Add to that other small things, like the fact that he breadcrumbed his role, and that he could have gotten gonzaw elected but kept his vote on himself, and I think it's pretty conclusive. So, the way I understand the situation is more like this:
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Do you agree, or disagree with my conclusion? As for who I want to lynch today, I'm not completely sure, if you can believe that. I've been on this annul/austin/axle filterdive for the last day or so and it's got me questioning some previous light townreads. My vote has been on axle since this morning following toad's posts, but I feel myself inching away from voting for him. I took down some posts during class that I wanted to respond to, so I'll get those up eventually. If I had to say who I feel most likely to flip scum at the moment, I would say austin. | ||
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Do you have anything to say about the Vivax stuff I linked for you before? Or did you find nothing and are therefore searching through what I felt were my two best posts of the game trying to find something scummy? And what is with this shit, "Without commenting on the accuracy or presence or lack of holes in your argument."? What I see is "While ignoring your actual contribution." The argument is the point of the entire post! Do you agree or disagree with my conclusion? Why did you two have to be the only ones online when I posted this? Whatever, I'm going to bed. Anyone voting for annul right now, I want to hear what you think of my post before the deadline. | ||
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On January 28 2013 16:35 annul wrote: i was never in danger of getting lynched. it was never relevant to me. The question he asked about hatters isn't something I would expect a lying scum to ask in thread, and the response to toad's suspicion is equally unexpected from someone pretending to be town. I don't really know what to make of his vote on yamato. I guess as scum he could just be throwing his vote down somewhere it won't gain any traction, but he could have just jumped on any of the easier lynch candidates. It's kind of an unreasonable vote as either scum or town, but there's that added level of "why would scum annul pick yamato if he KNOWS he's town"? Yes, I can see how his play the entire game could be an elaborate trick, but I don't think it is. | ||
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In class, but I've been looking through clarity/adam's filters. They've both kind of slid under my radar most of the game. In the beginning it was because of clarity's thread presence, but later it was because at a certain point I just started with DS/toad's lists and worked my way down. Do you remember why DS had <1% scum on his last spreadsheet? Class just got out early, so I've gotta move. I will say that after reading the filters straight through I'm not sure where the incredibly strong town read came from. | ||
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(still working on clarity/adam stuff) | ||
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On January 31 2013 08:08 austinmcc wrote: That's the one. Why are my interactions with gonzaw/chez/prplhz and discussions about them making you entirely sure I'm mafia, while they are inconclusive evidence as far as Adam is concerned? Adam, or Axle? | ||
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Clarity: Runs for mayor based on a platform of being a townie townie and creating a good atmosphere D1. It actually kinda sounds like he's just running for "townie". Seems strange to emphasize one of your strengths D1 when town wants a mayor for more than just one day. Promises Djo reads, never gave them. Not sure what we can draw from this, since he then disappeared after that. I think this is standing out to me because Djo was really suspicious of clarity and he died N1. He also questioned why Djo was asking so many question, which is kind of a weird thing to be suspicious of. However, Djo said clarity returned to his null zone, so I’m not sure what to think. Adam: Talks about relatively unimportant things instead of the important ones Has some weird/weak reasons to find people townie He doubted the chezinu lynch because chezinu followed the chezinu rule Mosca seemed particularly suspicious of him because of how adam was deciding people were town, and he died last night (was he the only one? Marv commented on the reasoning, but he couldn't be killed.) Then there's the ninja vote that I can't really take offense to (I did it, I'm pretty sure others did as well), but he WAS absent for about 34 hours before he returned to the thread with nothing to add Right now, top scumreads are austin and adam. I think they're scummy apart, and I think their motivations seem to mesh really well together. (also possible scumslip? lol) | ||
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On January 31 2013 08:23 Adam4167 wrote: So, you summarize my filter into half a dozen lines and I become one of your top scum reads? If you find that list to be indicative of me being scum, you need to explain why, because you haven't done so. Yes. My possible scum at this point are axle, you, stutters, and austin. It's not hard to jump to the top of the list. And there's more reasons than I've listed, but they tend to be smaller and less reliable. Things like you saying that you "choose" to see vivax as an overzealous townie. And reasons that I find you scummy because I find austin scummy, and I can see some interplay between you two (which is reasonably speculative and I shouldn't really consider because neither of you have flipped yet). I didn't name them because they should probably be ignored, but nonetheless they're affecting my read of you. You comment about setup-type stuff when you could be talking about players and reads. There's more of the former than the latter. You find people townie for reasons you shouldn't find people townie. One person showed significant suspicion of you because of this, and that person ended up dead the next day (I think oats also has you on his scumlist, but I don't recall him pushing his reads at all). You said you'd come back in the morning, but you showed up only to ninja vote and go back to lurking. Is that enough explanation? | ||
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Now I have to figure out who I was wrong about... Or if I was wrong about both... Or if I eliminated someone as scum because I assumed something about the scum setup that has just been revealed to be untrue... At least I can't talk myself into unflipped connection theories anymore. My god, that's going to become my meta... | ||
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On February 01 2013 10:24 annul wrote: i am going to sleep now, but now that toad used up his powers and is either red or effectively a green, we should start to consider him in lynch decisions, too. he literally just attempted to railroad me while using a "DO NOT FIGHT ME ON THIS OR I WILL LYNCH YOU FOR BEING STUPID" argument. trying to stifle dissent, eh? hmmm... If that were the case why would he say he's going to jail you and then nk someone? It just proved your innocence <.< | ||
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On February 01 2013 22:35 FiveTouch wrote: The question is, who would be killing off masons instead of a cop who keeps confirming towns for us? That's really dumb. The remaining mafia is really dumb. There's no need to kill the cop when he can only make you confirmed town. On February 01 2013 22:56 austinmcc wrote: I agree with leaving Vivax up until later, and playing the safer game there. But the "confirmed townie" list isn't as large as you're making it. | ||
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On February 01 2013 23:16 FiveTouch wrote: If there is a 3rd godfather I'm never playing in a BC game again Then I am of the belief that you will never be playing in a BC game again. | ||
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On February 01 2013 23:16 austinmcc wrote: There's a check on me and even if the remaining mafia is a framer he can't frame himself. So either I'm town or I'm scum and Vivax is just lying that he checked me last night. Also, in this scenario, Vivax has to be town. So he's a townie just lying about his check for no reason. That is what you are saying. On February 01 2013 23:16 austinmcc wrote: Oh yeah, I guess 3rd GF is also a possibility. Well played. | ||
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On February 01 2013 23:36 FiveTouch wrote: Or you could just sheep your elected guys who keep lynching mafia? All good things come to an end. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [ Austin's scum official campaign] + The Chez Campaign On January 21 2013 09:25 austinmcc wrote: The times that I've seen Chezinu give reads, they've been QUITE good. He also, in my mind, has some other qualities that I want in a mayor - someone that scum is going to have a hard time misleading and someone who can deal with being masoned well. On January 21 2013 09:30 austinmcc wrote: I guess the above isn't a full thought. If you don't consider Chezinu a candidate for mayor, I think you're being silly. He's a risky pick because he could be scum and he doesn't seem particularly readable before the election ends, plus he might just be chezinu as mayor, but in a vacuum he's a solid mayor candidate and you shouldn't write him off. On January 21 2013 09:39 austinmcc wrote: I don't like writing someone off as unreadable. It's so lazy to just say "Chez hard to read and silly" and completely ignore the "Chez often has very, very good reads" aspect. He's got enough upside if he's town and in the mayor position that it's worth considering him and trying to read him. On January 21 2013 09:56 austinmcc wrote: Nope, unless I should make something up. Read closer. I give my reasoning why I think he should be a candidate, and on what conditions I think he's someone to vote for. Those conditions haven't been met, therefore he's not someone I want to vote for atm. And yes, as FT notes, they may be conditions that simply can't be met, maybe you can't get a read on Chez D1, but oh well, still gonna try. On January 21 2013 10:50 austinmcc wrote: You're not killing the folks I'm most interested in killing. Reads + being hard to mess with + probably decent at dealing with being masoned by a couple folks and trying to read them/not give mafia masons info = good mayoral candidate. Therefore, Chez is a good mayoral candidate. IF he comes off strongly town, he should be getting votes. IF he doesn't, then he shouldn't. But I dislike that people are considering him to not even be a possible mayor, because who knows what happens in the next day. My arguments on that point have mainly been that Chez should be a candidate, not that he should be mayor given the first 24 hours of this game. You may disagree that chez could be readable, that he could be a strong town read, but I don't see how it's dissonant that he is a legitimate candidate, and should get votes if he comes off as strongly town + he hasn't come off as strongly town so doesn't have my vote atm. On January 22 2013 00:39 austinmcc wrote: Gah. So much posting overnight. Got a couple observations to start today off with. (1) annul, not everyone is ignoring your accusations. A couple folks have expressly disagreed with you. Yes, Toad has been throwing out some pure wifom, but that's ... whatever. It happens in any game. Vivax's vote for sandroba doesn't bother me, I'd rather he run for mayor but actually consider other players legitimate candidates then try and shove his campaign down everyone's throats. That's a POSITIVE thing in my mind, "I want to be mayor but I also want the best candidate to be mayor." Yes, that's only one of your initial issues you had with Vivax, but that did not strike me as a scummy contradiction in his actions. (2) You remember when I said Chez was a legitimate candidate and should at least be considered, then got flak for that? Well, I'm still not voting him. But, reading his posts, I got the feeling that he was one of the few people who has posted that they are running who has done anything beyond "I want to be mayor, if you elect me I will lynch this dude (or that dude)." On January 21 2013 11:00 Chezinu wrote: That. Even if it's bs, even if it's almost nothing. We've seen some general "Ah wil be transparint an gud fer yu." And everyone mayoral candidate has a lynch target. But chez, at least if you trust his statements, is actively thinking about how to be mayor beyond today. Moreso than any other candidate. As mayor, I will be more than just a mayor. I will form a great circle like no one has ever seen. This circle will be protected. This circle will survive! For Chezinu loves his circles. If mafia dares to destroy it, they will be destroyed themselves! Is it enough to vote him? No. But...it looks good. And I wish someone else would have pointed this out, because I think it's actually something worth pulling out of his candidacy versus others. (3) STUTTERS. debears has posted some, but I'm not picking up anything strong one way or another. BUT STUTTERS GUYS HOLY CRAP. He returned with a single post - This post doesn't make me feel any better. When I rolled mafia my first time, I had a hard time not taking this out when accused of being mafia. "Well yes, I've been doing x thing that's scummy, but..." where the "but..." is something WEAK. Stutters does that here, picks out a single thing I didn't like, admits to it, and then "but it was early." It doesn't matter if it's early, plenty of folks wrote long early posts (candidacies, general strategies, etc.). Moreover, JUST LOOK AT THE FRIGGIN' POST AND HIS FILTER. There's been way more discussion, way more to look at, comment on, anything. Stutters hasn't done ANY of that. He pops in, says he's catching up, does NOTHING beyond that. This reads to me like someone who came under some fire, dropped by to address, but has been told to keep his head low. To anyone DEFENDING stutters, or who thinks stutters may be town: I BELIEVE someone else made a comment that they didn't want to lynch stutters, but I have lost that. If you made that comment, let me know plox. This was the only one I remembered. Let's not lynch stutters because stutters is scummy as town. I know I've said that about players this game. But I don't like it as reasoning not to lynch stutters. He did something scummy, and then the followup has also been scummy. He just dipped in, said he was catching up, dipped out. Gave this really weak response to some weak early pressure on him. To me, it reads EXACTLY like he has been told to lay low. Someone brought up the difference between a mayoral D1 and a normal lynch, where players can hide or play poorly because you won't be under constant scrutiny, the discussion is about the mayor and his lynch instead of who is scummy (to some extent, or at least to the extent that it allows more trolling to go unpunished D1). Stutters is harnessing that. Stutters is staying under the radar, his head way down, and everyone is passing him over for other targets that are ... higher profile or more active. Do not forget stutters. Don't pass him over. Read his filter. Read his response, and ask yourself whether a "yes, but" and "now I'm catching up" into silence feels scummy or towny as a response. Stutters should be the mayoral lynch today. The Gonzaw Campaign On January 22 2013 01:11 austinmcc wrote: I know I had some votes for mayor earlier. I will gladly accept votes/run/whatever. Right now, I would lynch stutters, because of the reasons given above. I think his couple posts were scummy and I think his response to an accusation was scummy. Some assorted reasons you should vote me: (1) I found that kittens stuff in the OP. (2) I often write walls of text, but they are legible. (3) I tend to be pretty clear with my thought processes. You may find them absurd (red check on Sandroba in paranoia comes to mind), but I almost always explain my reads and my actions in ways that you can follow. (4) I am thinking about the game longer term than today's lynch. I've noted that the the masons in this game are going to be of particular importance to the mayoral position, as he's likely to get masoned by most/all of them, and needs to know who is scum/town and what information to give out/trust coming in. I think I have toned down my paranoia, but have a healthy sense of mistrust and am relatively difficult to sway. I don't currently plan on setting up some town circle immediately, but I at least notice that Chezinu was talking about that, again...I'm thinking about the mayor position as more than just a lynch today. (5) I will sometimes post paint pictures. But not scum-BH-getting-lynched amounts. (6) I am generally pretty involved in the games I play. I will not be an absentee. (7) You know who I am. I don't think smurfing should disqualify someone from running, nor should being a crazy-play-loving enigma. But you can go through my games, see my posting style, see how I'm usually trying to figure things out, and some of you have a decent handle on how I play from being with me in those games. There's slightly more accountability there, if you're into that. NOW. Check this out. Here are reasons you should NOT vote me. (1) Next Saturday I will be almost entirely unavailable. I don't want an inactive mayor, and I don't want someone who will miss a full cycle. Saturday will be the first half of D3, so ... it's not a full cycle, but that's an important consideration. I have not seen any other candidate discuss their availability, and I don't like the idea that we could elect someone and have them go MIA for a bit. (2) In sort of the same vein, I'm a little behind at work. I will absolutely put in the time if I'm mayor, but I'm not entirely sure how much I can actually play during like 8 AM - 7 PM or so EST. I can read up, and I can post some, but I can't promise to be able to give the game the full treatment during those hours. (3) In the past I have been both overly paranoid AND stupid when I try to scheme. Those are not qualities that you want in a mayor. However, and this part is positive, I have specifically tried to temper those qualities, and in the games that I've played more recently I think I've done okay with that. I felt like I was a good threat-quality monitor and positive influence on...GSL mini 3? Tried specifically to improve my play and the thread itself, rather than just make reads, and I think that was good for the game. Tried to use my abilities to help town in the recent world-swapping mafia, and felt like I did okay with that (noticed things were dead D1, used my ability to try and make things un-dead, but didn't follow through enough after doing so). Ymmv on how much I can actually consciously temper my paranoia and sometimes-stupidity though. I think that's an honest assessment of how my play makes me both a good and bad mayor. I'm still currently looking at stutters as my lynch candidate. Right now on the to-do list is: (1) Look at stutters past games, does he feel scummy as town? If so, does he seem scummy in those games in the same way he seems scummy in this game? (Can feel scummy for different reasons, "scummy as town" is no good, but "looks scummy for x as town and looks scummy for x here" is better). (2) Look more at prplhz, since there's a sizeable group on him. I don't like some of the case on him, but it's got some valid points and shouldn't be ignored. (3) Try and find some little things. Chez thinking about the future, toad early on thinking about solving the game, little bits and pieces that are interesting or can help us get better reads on specific players. (4) Look at Gonzaw hard. If he's town, I think he'd be a solid mayor. He can get caught up in his own scheming just like I can, but he's shown an ability to be able to direct a game/faction if put into a position of power, and that's, again, a valuable quality to have in a mayor. I do not want scumGonzaw in that position though, at all. So he's a lot like Chez for me, in that I really don't want to risk mayor Gonzaw unless we're pretty certain of his alignment. This post is after he's gotten a few votes, and after it's pretty clear that chez isn't getting many more votes. Austin says he'll accept votes, but very clearly doesn't want us to vote him. His reasons for mayor austin are mostly silly nothings (including an additional chez mention), and his reasons not to want mayor austin are both reasonable if he is town, and give him an excuse if he is scum. The bold is almost 100% in favor of scum. He disagrees with the prplhz lynch (though he says he will look into him), he reminds us of how chez would be a good mayor, he adds that gonzaw would be a good mayor, but he's not going to vote for either of them. On January 22 2013 01:31 austinmcc wrote: Read over Gonzaw some more. Like Gonzaw. Gonzaw is a candidate I would place a vote on. Some short reasons:
I view Gonzaw as townie because of the above. I know that a lot of those points are all the same thing, in that Gonzaw is never just stopping at a response or an explanation, but continuing to make reads or push his reads. Even so, I like that, and the fact that he's constantly doing that makes it feel more genuine and townie to me. Look at how townie gonzaw is! I'm still not voting for him though. Even though I said I would vote for him if I thought he was townie. If you check axle's filter, you'll see that he switches from chez to gonzaw less than an hour before this post. The scumteam was switching gears. Austin never voted for him because then there would be 3 scum voting for him, which I'm sure he wanted to avoid. On January 22 2013 11:23 austinmcc wrote: The chez voters were chez/axle/grush for a while. Not exactly votes that I find informative. The votes on me aren't wonderfully informative, given that one is from me and one was from sandroba. Bar the early votes from you and fivetouch, I had oats and djo on me at times. Late enough tonight that I'm going to put it off, but tomorrow I'll look at when in terms of the feel of the game they voted me, unless someone else has beat me to it. I know oats's vote was a post that people had issue with, and the "Why would you vote austin when oats is voting austin?" comment was a legitimate concern when it was made. djodref's exact reasons I don't remember. There were also some...halfvotes? BKE says he would have voted for me. I believe it was mocsta who voted me in the thread but not in the voting thread itself? He suggests that there was nothing to gain from the chez voters, while two of them have flipped scum. He also suggests that there were at least two scum voting for him during the day (which I never understood to begin with), and NONE of them have flipped scum. Sandroba, oats, djo, BKE, fuba, and mocsta (implied) were all mentioned. Even if he doesn't do this to convince others, it gives him a place to "scumhunt" where he'll only be lynching townies. Long story short, Austin did everything in his power to get chez or gonzaw elected without actually voting for them himself. He constantly encourages others to vote for the two of them, but he won't. Even after saying that he thinks gonzaw is a good vote if he is town, then states that he is town. Gonzaw could have been sheriff if austin voted, but there were already two scum on him (three after chez switched). Read his posts on Vivax and see how much he's clearly trying to associate him with chez. His play D1 reads as entirely too clean while still being 95% scum motivated for it to be an accident. Then there's the delurk to post his pre-written self-defense, and then claim Veteran when it does no good. He says someone should shoot him to confirm, when there's no reason to believe we have vigi or jacks. There was no reason to claim. Then add in the fact that he barely commented on axle all game except to say that he didn't like him for not answering his snowman/dogs question. And the fact that there was only one person seriously pressuring him yesterday, and that was yamato. Yamato is now dead. And the DT remaining alive despite there being no way scum is safe from them unless they're a 3rd godfather. Oh, and the recent post about doubting marv and toad. I mean, they're clearly blinding themselves to his scumminess, but they're town. I haven't done the math, but I'm pretty sure he needs a marv mislynch to win the game. ##Vote: austinmcc I should have known he was scum when I found him townie D1. | ||
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On February 01 2013 23:40 FiveTouch wrote: Yeah, but I do. Plus he's just trolling us at the moment, look. Nah, marv. I'm just trolling you. | ||
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The threat to him yesterday wasn't a DT, it was yamato. | ||
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Scum austin answers every question. | ||
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While I wouldn't oppose your plan, since I'm almost positive we'd win anyway if we follow it, I think we can win this cycle. There's also the kind of strong personal motivation for me to not be mislynched because it's never happened before, and I like being able to say that XD | ||
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You would go through the "unconfirmed" townies first, realize that they're all dead, be left with yourself and toad, and end up lynching austin eventually. It would take like, 3-4 days or something, but you'd eventually get it right. This saves us that time. | ||
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On February 01 2013 23:05 FiveTouch wrote: It is, and it's this attitude that might stop mafia from conceding. Anyway, here's my notes I drew up: 10-1 FiveTouch Toad Vivax austin debears annul mkfuba adam grush oats stutters 8-1, 7-1 - Toad confirms someone not mafia (say Stutters) FiveTouch Toad debears austin stutters adam grush oats 6-1, 5-1 FiveTouch Toad austin stutters Oats grush 4-1, 3-1 FiveTouch Toad Stutters Oats Lynch for the win. Note, if mafia hold their shot so Stutters (or whoever Toad jails) isn't confirmed, there's 2 lynches at the end and not just 1. In case Vivax is mafia: 10-1 FiveTouch Toad Vivax austin debears annul mkfuba adam grush oats stutters 8-1, 7-1 - Vivax confirms Stutters FiveTouch Toad Vivax austin stutters adam grush oats 6-1, 5-1 - Vivax confirms grush FiveTouch Toad Vivax stutters grush Oats Lynch Vivax + Oats next 2 days, game over. In both of these cases, austin dies. Did I misunderstand something in here somewhere? Oh shit, I did. Looked down the list and saw austin dead either way. (you have austin dying in one shot in each scenario, btw. It would take two, remember?) Well then I disagree with your plan, and say we should definitely lynch austin today. | ||
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When I looked at your post, I scanned down each list, saw austin dead, and that was enough for me. I didn't actually follow along with it. Now I realize you assume austin dying to NKs (you'll have to adjust your notes a bit in that case). I still think you guys would figure it out eventually, but if you're just going to blindly assume that there isn't a 3rd godfather when all the evidence points to it, then I'd rather not risk it. Swap out stutters for austin in that first scenario, last day, and that's how I see that day ending. You lynch oats, austin shoots one of you, austin wins. If you throw this game away after the lead we have, and all the sheeping I did to get here, I'm going to be incredibly angry. Lynch me immediately tomorrow if austin flips veteran, because I'm apparently useless as town. But lynch austin today. | ||
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What do you see changing your mind regarding austin in the days to come? When you reach this point: 3-1 FiveTouch Toad austin oats What do you see yourself doing? Because according to the plan you're lynching oats. That loses the game. Did you read what I wrote about him? None of my points has ever been disputed regarding austin. The only thing holding the votes back is his claim, which he was incredibly overeager to present. He knew that, which is why he claimed at such a pointless time. He was afraid, and he made a mistake. That manner of that claim was a scumtell. He killed yamato because yamato was the only one strongly opposing him. Everything makes perfect sense. | ||
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What does that mean to you? | ||
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Quiz Time: Can anyone tell me who else responded to one of my good posts while commenting on only the least important aspects of it? + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2013 15:25 AxleGreaser wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2013 14:22 mkfuba07 wrote: Annul The town annul explanation is far more feasible. I'm about 95% more inclined to believe that town annul had a significant oversight and had trouble explaining himself than I am to believe that scum annul risked his life quite blatantly to save someone who ultimately was likely going to be lynched anyway. Without commenting on the accuracy or presence or lack of holes in your argument. Why did you make it, or more specifically why did you post it in the thread? On January 30 2013 15:30 AxleGreaser wrote: Why has it been doing that.... ? Ahh because you are currently not voting for your top scum read... " If I had to say who I feel most likely to flip scum at the moment, I would say austin. " If austin is town, he's played literally the most unfortunate game of mafia ever. His actions D1 fit perfectly into what we now know to be the scum goals. 100% perfectly! The votes right now are based solely on setup speculation. If three godfathers wasn't unlikely, every single person would be voting for austin based on his D1 alone. I don't even know how to explain anymore how perfectly he fits the scumteam. At least when I sheep I've thought about it long and hard. Those single posts take me hours to write because I keep going back through filters, seeing what fits and what doesn't. Half of the time I just delete the whole thing because I decide it's wrong or inconclusive, and I start over. It's probably not the best method of playing mafia because it doesn't give me a very strong town presence, but I put the effort in. This sheeping from town just feels lazy. Marv is really good, I know. That's why I sheep him anytime we're in a game together. But he's not infallible (BKE, me, most likely oats), and I haven't seen a reason to set oats and I above austin on his scumdar. He's just decided to lynch up the list, and as I've already said, that will lose us the game. Why not just lynch scum? | ||
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Apparently I have an overactive imagination. -_- | ||
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On February 02 2013 03:03 mkfuba07 wrote: But I AM worrying, because I really, really don't want to be mislynched. It's like, my only point of pride in this game. I've never played particularly well in any of my games, but I've never been bad enough to get collectively lynched by the entire town (vigi'd once, doesn't count XD). This moment, right now, is the first time I've felt like I was actually playing instead of just observing and commenting. What do you see changing your mind regarding austin in the days to come? When you reach this point: 3-1 FiveTouch Toad austin oats What do you see yourself doing? Because according to the plan you're lynching oats. That loses the game. Did you read what I wrote about him? None of my points has ever been disputed regarding austin. The only thing holding the votes back is his claim, which he was incredibly overeager to present. He knew that, which is why he claimed at such a pointless time. He was afraid, and he made a mistake. That manner of that claim was a scumtell. He killed yamato because yamato was the only one strongly opposing him. Everything makes perfect sense. I hope I look back on this post one day and laugh. Right now it's just making me cringe. | ||
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On February 02 2013 08:10 Clockwork Hydra wrote: Yo fuba, I thought you were obvious town. No worries buddy. Was a fun game to observe. I dropped in when Sandro talked to me about it. Scum had some mindbogglingly bad decisions this game, but overall it was entertaining Thanks stranger :D | ||
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