Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIV

Sylencia's first post is a non-convicted declaration of his policy on lynching lurkers, which "changes depending upon the flow of the game," and ends with a hope that people don't wait until the last minute to vote or come out with new analysis. In doing so, he adds the caveat "(assuming their info is good)." Already trying to discredit in-depth analysis at the last minute. Mafia would hate last-minute vote changes, as they've already planned on and around another outcome. If one of their own is being targeted, a last-minute vote change wouldn't be in their favor as there wouldn't be enough people around to necessarily make it successful, and when their mafia flips red, it incriminates them as well. Also, his answer to Corazon's "how do mafia mislead us" post is a very vague, general one that basically says "when in the last game they misled us." No concrete new info, very non-committal on everything. Possibly scum.

Next post is a simple time zone declaration.

Next post is involving him in the useless "should blues lie?" debate, with the "duh!" statement of "you can't expect cops to say 'yes' if someone asks them if they are a cop." And that's all he says. Contributes nothing, but went out of his way to do it. Possibly scum.

Next post he bandwagons on calling out Spaghetticus for the QT slip, and puts pressure on TemiL to post something.

Next post he says "the only person we're waiting on now is Strix." This is basically a non-post that can be construed as being productive. Possibly scum.

Continues pressure on Spaghetticus in a passive-aggressive way, then notes Strix's absence again. Possibly scum.

Changes his mind on Spaghetticus "after looking at it again," but doesn't provide his reasoning. Suggests that all of us should be stepping it up, but has done literally zero stepping it up himself. Shifts attention from his noncontributions onto others' noncontributions. Also, he gives a thought about newbies posting more so as to help town out more. A little out of his way and a little sweet for my taste, especially considering the substance of what he's posted. Possibly scum.

Next post he essentially takes credit for Mocsta's post, saying "I was going to say that same thing but I was busy reading! Good one!" This is the equivalent of a "+1". Taking credit for others' contributions without having to contribute anything, and all of these pseudo-contributions are aimed towards Spaghetticus, along with the caveat that "after looking at it again it could have just been a slip," given with no reasoning. So on the flip he has a backdoor. Possibly scum.

Next post he closes that backdoor and uses a non-tell on Spaghetticus to FoS him -- his dramatic quote about lynching lurkers even if there's a good scum tell. Saying you're going to vote out the lurkiest player, especially that dramatically, is hardly a scum tell at all; and if it were, it would be a big, enormous one because it was so emphatic, and would warrant a vote over an FoS if Sylencia really believed it.

Next post is just him saying he won't talk to Spag in real life about it -- unnecessary, flooding the thread with non-contributions.

Final post is entirely on theory and policy, at a time when more than enough names are being tossed around for him to contribute something much more concrete. A waste of effort and discussion, and scummy.

OE spent an inordinate amount of time tunneling me for my no-lynch comment, but didn't bother to go through my entire filter and present a full case. He admitted that my own case against Syl was good, but then said he didn't like it without breaking it down point-by-point. He then voted for me without a full analysis, mostly based on a single suspicion.

I found this especially suspicious because when it became clear not many others were biting on the case against me, he pulled his vote back instead of fighting for it.

These were the items that compelled me to come up with a case against OE near the end of D1, in addition to his defensiveness and his emotional response to Spag. I think that mafia are prone to using emotion as part of their argumentation much more readily than townies, as it discourages a clear town atmosphere and doesn't necessitate logic or truth.

The reason I didn't put the case forward were twofold: one, I was worried it was tunnelling on my part, as I was a little unnerved by his persistent attacks on me and the fact that Sylencia and someone else had picked up on it as well. I didn't want to bring nothing but suspicions to light and act as if it were a tight case, and spend the energy persuading everyone else of it when I wasn't fully persuaded myself. Secondly, it was simply a matter of time. I was able to hawk the thread all day because I was at work and things were slow, but on the second half of Day 1 work picked up and when it was finished, I had RL stuff to attend to leading up to the final lynch. I suspected I could make a case with a thorough look through his filter, but didn't have the time.

Mocsta, like it or not, was a leader for the town environment Day 1, and his stance on voting out TeMiL was dramatic and seemed quite final. Being unsure of my suspicions on Day 1, I completely bandwagoned him on TeMiL, knowing Spag would also vote him out, and while I wasn't entirely convinced it was the right thing to do, I didn't feel sure enough about StriX or jampi, and not certain enough about OE to go through the energy of fleshing out my case and making it and pushing for a following.

So when the person whose argument already held my vote made a very dramatic stand about OE, I read his case and went, "Yep, that's what I thought, too!" This is my second game and it feels good to realize that others have the same suspicions as me, as honestly I was at a point where I could see almost everyone being mafia after reading everybody's filters multiple times.

Additionally, I knew that a quick bandwagon move like this would provoke some kind of reaction to the other votes, which had been quite settled up to that point. I knew that it would be easy for Mocsta's analysis to go stale and for almost nothing to happen save for his single vote change, and felt that in order to really see hwo people felt about it, it would need a second voice.

My analysis was lacking (ie, nonexistent) because I was literally hopping in and out of the computer room between changing my son's diaper and putting him to bed, spending time with the wife, etc. There was no reason for me to think I'd have enough consecutive free time to devote to a full analysis that illustrated appropriately why I agreed with Mocsta's analysis, let alone with enough time left over to put pressure on the rest of the voters before the deadline.

I think it's totally reasonable to have expected this explanation from me much sooner than now; it was a big switch given with no explanation. RL issues have prevented a quicker response, which does make me a poor town player for the past few days at a time when solid town play has been needed to create a good discussion environment. So I do take credit for some of the state of the current thread.

Analyzing discussion is valuable, but I see how the votes fall as the most compelling evidence; your vote is your most valuable asset, and how you use it shows a lot.

The person whose individual case for being a townie suffered the most from the D1 lynch was OE, without question. If he had been mafia, other mafia would have made a more concerted effort on jambi; lynching StriX puts OE in a horrible position.

OE was one of the only people to make an actual concerted case against StriX, and the one to first make real effort on it. A mafia who knows StriX is innocent could easily make that lynch happen and OE have the blood on his hands.

Additionally, OE is known for playing/behaving a certain way in Mafia, according to Spag, who went well out of his way to cast suspicion on OE multiple times while explicitly saying "that doesn't mean I really think you're scum." I looked at OE's filter from the last newbie mafia, and true enough, he's generally played pretty emotionally and defensively, and with a healthy amount of pep. That kind of play was consistent across the last game, and consistent to every post he's made this game.

This is broken into several pieces. First is consistent non-contributions:
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He casts suspicions without putting himself out there for it -- very carefully crafted non-suspicions that are still suspicions:
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Especially upon being called out for the soft town claim on the QT thing, he was very defensive, which only seems odd in comparison to the lack of rigor in his analysis in the rest of the thread. What is consistent is his emotions, which is much easier for mafia to do than actual analysis:
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He has also consistently asked for information or operated mistakenly based on what he assumed was information in the OP, which again a townie might do if they're ignorant,, but he makes a big case out of not being ignorant. These strike me more as efforts to discuss fringe details that wouldn't be worth teh discussion if he actually wanted to know the answer and just read the OP:
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He's also said a lot of things that simply aren't good logic. I can see this in a townie for sure, but here it just means that his only contributions are simply bad contributions.
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Here are all of Spag's soft town claims that, together, just seem too convenient:

No duh! If you were town you would make darn sure it was posted before the deadline. If you were mafia there's not as much pressure.

Covered earlier. If this detail eludes him, he would either read the OP -- and if he were really after the answer, he'd put the question in green for the mod (which he does later to a different soft-claim question, but not this one).

He never answered my question as to what that info was, or where. He's explaiend multiple different reasons for his soft-claim at this point -- this weird honeypot idea which he didn't take advantage of at all if he used it, he was simply lazy in the moment, he came across a mysterious piece of info that led him to believe otherwise, and yet he still wasn't sure enough to know but not curious enough to find out but still curious enough to ask the thread but not curious enough to ask the mods directly.

This is a little bit like praising the medic. Oh, phew! So glad you got that out!

Implicit here is the idea that he also has communicated with a townie coach, and can verify whether or not Jampi had access to one or not or is lying. Also here is him conveniently not reading the OP (whereas elsewhere he is incredibly defensive about the idea that he wouldn't read the OP or Mafia guides) so he can take credit for a move forward in analysis that doesn't actually exist, or is even legal. A for effort and all that.

He made such a big deal about LAL all day, but flung his vote to StriX when Mocstra and myself suddenly went for OE, essentially assuring that StriX would be lynched when it was possible that there'd be a bandwagon lynch of OE.

Day 2, who is he talking about again? TeMiL. It seems to me that the only person he wants to talk about is the person who's contributed the least, but the person he actually votes for will be done without clear, building analysis.