EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIV - Page 2
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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zarepath
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##Vote: OmniEulogy | ||
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I switched from TeMiL to OE. Spag switched from TeMiL to StriX (after my vote) Sylencia did NOT switch to either OE or StriX; he was obviously paying attention to the thread (he kept posting), but felt no need to push the dial one way or the other even when a single vote for either of the two (StriX and OE) would have made a large difference. Instead he remained on a person who was almost assuredly not going to be lynched. TeMiL votes for jampidampi for no discernible reason. Spag's vote is a direct declaration for StriX over OE or jampidampi, and does not hold at all to his LAL policy he's been harping about all day. I will have to check the filter (chaotic two hours and I was in and out), but I don't recall his explanation for that. Sylencia and TeMiL's votes, however, are indirect assurances of StriX being guilty over OE without having to say as much. They didn't reiterate strong cases for jampidampi or try to argue anyone else into also voting for jampidampi. | ||
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zarepath
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On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote: Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. I am wondering about this. Just because it is too risky for both scum to vote for someone they know will flip green? Because you immediately switched your vote to StiX only when it looked as though OE might get a bandwagon. It's theoretically possible that mafia only planned one vote on StiX, but someone had to switch to make sure it happened, and then use the argument that you just used so that if a mafia who voted for StiX flips red, the other mafia is safe. I don't necessarily think that's what happened, but it seems a little big of step to assume there's only one in there. Food for thought, though. | ||
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zarepath
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On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote: I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though. Wait, wait, wait. Who said 1 scum on StriX and 1 scum on YOU? You are completely ignoring the two people who voted for jampi, and assuming that whoever voted for you is scum (a natural defensive posture, to be sure). I don't know about this Cora stuff, but how is it bad play, let alone scummy, for me to have switched from TeMiL to you when presented with a strong amount of evidence by a strong pro-town contributor? If it were such a bad play to have switched off of TeMiL, why didn't YOU vote for TeMiL? | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On January 05 2013 10:36 OmniEulogy wrote: @Zare how does Spag's vote on StriX not follow his LAL policy? From your point of view was StriX not lurking? He had roughly as many posts as Jampi before he had to start defending himself. and made almost no contributions up to that point. The only other player who was worse than both of them was TeMiL. Which is the person he was voting for before switching. He's made some cryptic remarks about us decoding his reasoning for doing it, which really isn't to my taste; spit out your reasoning so we can get as much informed discussion done as possible before the day's over and mafia kills somebody. Especially with these time zone differences, we're basically having two separate shifts of discussion each day, and by delaying reasoning for anything you're preventing half of the town from participating. Especially consdiering that his switch vote, at the time, seemed made to ensure that StriX, who we now know is town, was lynched. An explanation is definitely in order. | ||
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zarepath
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On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now. I am trying to discern why you say that switching my vote from TeMiL to you is bad play. I personally think it was fine, but I would like to hear your reasoning and not necessarily because I'm trying to out you as scum with your answer. | ||
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I still agree that it would be better if such were done earlier in the day, what with the time zone differences. | ||
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I know this sucks but I honestly will be totally MIA tomorrow -- I have a lot of Sunday commitments and will thus miss the entire first half of Day 2. I promise to catch up on everything Monday and be fully participatory for the remainder of Day 2. So I'm certainly responsible for a lacking discussion environment right now, and I"m sorry for that, but unavoidable in my case. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
That's hardly appropriate; you've followed up on a ton of your own questions to various people. I don't think Mocsta shoud be the prime suspect right now, considering that he is the only townie really participating enough to respond appropriately. I think thread pressure is more deserved elsewhere. | ||
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zarepath
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+ Show Spoiler + OE spent an inordinate amount of time tunneling me for my no-lynch comment, but didn't bother to go through my entire filter and present a full case. He admitted that my own case against Syl was good, but then said he didn't like it without breaking it down point-by-point. He then voted for me without a full analysis, mostly based on a single suspicion. I found this especially suspicious because when it became clear not many others were biting on the case against me, he pulled his vote back instead of fighting for it. These were the items that compelled me to come up with a case against OE near the end of D1, in addition to his defensiveness and his emotional response to Spag. I think that mafia are prone to using emotion as part of their argumentation much more readily than townies, as it discourages a clear town atmosphere and doesn't necessitate logic or truth. The reason I didn't put the case forward were twofold: one, I was worried it was tunnelling on my part, as I was a little unnerved by his persistent attacks on me and the fact that Sylencia and someone else had picked up on it as well. I didn't want to bring nothing but suspicions to light and act as if it were a tight case, and spend the energy persuading everyone else of it when I wasn't fully persuaded myself. Secondly, it was simply a matter of time. I was able to hawk the thread all day because I was at work and things were slow, but on the second half of Day 1 work picked up and when it was finished, I had RL stuff to attend to leading up to the final lynch. I suspected I could make a case with a thorough look through his filter, but didn't have the time. Secondly, why I switched so readily to vote OE following Mocsta's case: + Show Spoiler + Mocsta, like it or not, was a leader for the town environment Day 1, and his stance on voting out TeMiL was dramatic and seemed quite final. Being unsure of my suspicions on Day 1, I completely bandwagoned him on TeMiL, knowing Spag would also vote him out, and while I wasn't entirely convinced it was the right thing to do, I didn't feel sure enough about StriX or jampi, and not certain enough about OE to go through the energy of fleshing out my case and making it and pushing for a following. So when the person whose argument already held my vote made a very dramatic stand about OE, I read his case and went, "Yep, that's what I thought, too!" This is my second game and it feels good to realize that others have the same suspicions as me, as honestly I was at a point where I could see almost everyone being mafia after reading everybody's filters multiple times. Additionally, I knew that a quick bandwagon move like this would provoke some kind of reaction to the other votes, which had been quite settled up to that point. I knew that it would be easy for Mocsta's analysis to go stale and for almost nothing to happen save for his single vote change, and felt that in order to really see hwo people felt about it, it would need a second voice. My analysis was lacking (ie, nonexistent) because I was literally hopping in and out of the computer room between changing my son's diaper and putting him to bed, spending time with the wife, etc. There was no reason for me to think I'd have enough consecutive free time to devote to a full analysis that illustrated appropriately why I agreed with Mocsta's analysis, let alone with enough time left over to put pressure on the rest of the voters before the deadline. I think it's totally reasonable to have expected this explanation from me much sooner than now; it was a big switch given with no explanation. RL issues have prevented a quicker response, which does make me a poor town player for the past few days at a time when solid town play has been needed to create a good discussion environment. So I do take credit for some of the state of the current thread. Why I no longer think that OE is scum: + Show Spoiler + Analyzing discussion is valuable, but I see how the votes fall as the most compelling evidence; your vote is your most valuable asset, and how you use it shows a lot. The person whose individual case for being a townie suffered the most from the D1 lynch was OE, without question. If he had been mafia, other mafia would have made a more concerted effort on jambi; lynching StriX puts OE in a horrible position. OE was one of the only people to make an actual concerted case against StriX, and the one to first make real effort on it. A mafia who knows StriX is innocent could easily make that lynch happen and OE have the blood on his hands. Additionally, OE is known for playing/behaving a certain way in Mafia, according to Spag, who went well out of his way to cast suspicion on OE multiple times while explicitly saying "that doesn't mean I really think you're scum." I looked at OE's filter from the last newbie mafia, and true enough, he's generally played pretty emotionally and defensively, and with a healthy amount of pep. That kind of play was consistent across the last game, and consistent to every post he's made this game. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
Because I"m convinced that his defensiveness/emotion is consistent to his play, that removed a chunk of my original suspicion on him for the attention he'd cast upon himself. In combination with the fact that he came out worse from D1 lynch than anyone else, I sincerely doubt his innocence. His case was a perfect bandwagon target for the mafia, and his general tone draws attention to himself in such a way that mafia could easily push for his lynching today. Therefore, I am convinced that OE is not likely to be scum. | ||
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zarepath
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 .On jampi I'm not sure; I'll be reading filters in the morning to see what I think about that. Again, he hasn't produced enough for a really solid analysis of him, but neither has TeMiL and we're apparently fine with that. I don't know. I'll have more to say in probably 12 hours; it's bed time for me now. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On January 07 2013 23:24 Spaghetticus wrote: If he is scum he is closing the game out for us by exploiting his influence. Wait... closing the game out for who? | ||
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"Closing the game out for us" is almost exclusively used when the subject of the sentence (in this case, a Mocsta scum) is part of the first-person plural of "us." | ||
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Why Spag is scum: + Show Spoiler + This is broken into several pieces. First is consistent non-contributions: + Show Spoiler + First real post is a list with resources, and a plan to pursue "more standard play" which involves not being as passive. On Day 1, the majority of Spag's posts are lists (people who played last game), theory (lying town, LAL), the fact that he has null reads on people, comments on the weather, and more theory, and more theory, and even more theory. What happened to standard play with case analysis? Instead he goes off on lurkers, talks about TeMiL being a lurker, and then doesn't actually end up voting for him. Read through Spag's filter Day 1 and just look at the number of posts he made that contributed literally zero to forwarding analysis on any single individual. The only real analysis he does is to suspect-but-not-suspect Mocsta and OE, and retaliations to Mocsta for going after his soft townie claim. He condemns the countries thing (easy), too. Now look at everything since then. More theory and numbers and probabilities, talking about talking about coaches (when he's already done it himself), most of his analysis is about TeMiL and the potential possibilities depending upon who he is, which involves zero analysis because he hasn't even posted -- talk about easy prey. Asks if there was a second role block, all of the possible setups, if others have seen blue slips -- so on, et cetera. It's not that these are necessarily bad things, but these are all things that are very, very easy for mafia to do. After saying he was going to do standard play, he hasn't made any compelling cases, just theorycrafted and said "great post" to other people's analysis. His latest post isn't analysis, but the people who could be persuaded to vote for. Mafia love bieng persuaded to vote for people; they don't have to make the case. He casts suspicions without putting himself out there for it -- very carefully crafted non-suspicions that are still suspicions: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2013 03:53 Spaghetticus wrote: @OmniEulogy I get a scum read off you... but... I am not going to pursue you if I can help it. Your process is so alien to me I can't really fathom your motives. I would like other people to apply scrutiny while I look elsewhere. I just can't see you as not scum, but this was true in XXXIII and you flipped town. Please people, before you attribute a scumbuddy relationship here... ... ... ... this is too high profile and obvious. My contribution will be substantial elsewhere, I genuinely feel my objectivity is compromised entirely when dealing with Omni. This is town motivated and too bold a risk for too little a reward to be a scum ploy. I have reasonable town motive, I don't want this post to haunt me. On January 03 2013 23:01 Spaghetticus wrote: You have also been leaping on irrelevant details (from my perspective), inflating them beyond their importance. Soft claiming 'not scum' is far too crass a move for my style and you know it. I can see that you are doing everything you can to promote town activity, and I believe this is within what is reasonable to expect from you, so I won't call scum read on this. I would like to point out however, that picking on small and probably* meaningless discrepancies is a great scum tactic for promoting confusion, and so would suggest you lay off the UberHolmsing On January 05 2013 03:12 Spaghetticus wrote: That being said, I approve of your suspicion of Mocsta's final words before bed. I have scrutinised this action and it comes off as RL problems, but I could be biased. Is there any more that you wish to add to concerning Mocsta's scummy behaviour? It does remind me a lot of your scummy tunneling in XXXIII. Mocsta may seem untouchable now but anything you can force from him when he does make a slip such as now could be vital later on. Note that anything someone ELSE could do to find Mocsta scummy would be great -- because Spag just might be biased. On January 05 2013 03:12 Spaghetticus wrote: Just so you know, I have a note in my word pad about your efforts to preserve lurkers. To Corazon -- again, no real analysis, just a cast suspicion. Maybe fairly innocent here, but what is the town motive for this post? On January 05 2013 12:31 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta I actually did not promise to make a case against Omni, I distinctly stated that while I feel he is scummy, I do not want to be the one making the case, as I have massive bias. I have been directing attention to him as nobody seems to be picking up on his loose play. In the absence of a case, I will likely make one, but I am busy and have other people I would like to pursue. If Corazon feels up to the task, this would be optimal from my perspective. Note that he explicitly asks Corazon to take up the case, a now-confirmed townie. If he can get Corazon to push the OE town flip and take the blame, two birds, right? Especially upon being called out for the soft town claim on the QT thing, he was very defensive, which only seems odd in comparison to the lack of rigor in his analysis in the rest of the thread. What is consistent is his emotions, which is much easier for mafia to do than actual analysis: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2013 11:52 Spaghetticus wrote: In regard to your 'soft buddy claim' on me, this is shocking. I honestly feel helpless in regard to this. I'm sorry to wash my hands of you in such a way On January 03 2013 23:01 Spaghetticus wrote: You have also been leaping on irrelevant details (from my perspective), inflating them beyond their importance. Soft claiming 'not scum' is far too crass a move for my style and you know it. I can see that you are doing everything you can to promote town activity, and I believe this is within what is reasonable to expect from you, so I won't call scum read on this. I would like to point out however, that picking on small and probably* meaningless discrepancies is a great scum tactic for promoting confusion, and so would suggest you lay off the UberHolmsing His first defense to the soft town slip; very defensive, and tries to undermine the town's most contributing member in the process, and make it about his own reads instead of everyone else's reads on him. Note that between this and his comments on OE, he makes a big deal about his own non-reads -- the people he suspects but doesn't currently think are mafia. On January 04 2013 00:45 Spaghetticus wrote: With respect, you are not listening. I just don't like that tone -- I don't think it benefits town. Not a lot by itself. On January 08 2013 00:35 Spaghetticus wrote: I've never use the phrase before. I was trying it out. Faaaark. A better response would probably be "Just a slip of words." Really? NEVER used the phrase "closing out a game?" On January 06 2013 09:28 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta Omni's post you quoted was ridiculous, and made me epic mad. The fact that you decided to support it makes me both confused and furious. ...WTF? On January 07 2013 21:06 Spaghetticus wrote: Is this sarcasm? You are allowing the imagination to go almost anywhere with your provocative comments. I know what an NK is, or do you think Omni's insight superior? Treating an NK as anything but what I called it Would be absolutely fracking retarded. It does not take a scum to know that this is how an NK works, it doesn't even take a particularly well informed town. How do YOU think we should think about NK's? Am I wrong? Do you think it beyond my intelligence to infer this much with both my penchant for theory crafting and the abundance of guides laying around? You don't even know whether I use coaches or not and you assume that I don't know what an NK is? This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive or been incongruous in your understanding of my thoughts. This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight. On January 07 2013 22:48 Spaghetticus wrote: F5ed to find yet another arrogant response. Wanna know why I think you are overconfident? BECAUSE ITS NOT A QUOTE FROM ME. LOOK AT THE FRICKING AUTHOR. You are playing fast and lose, and you're making some big mistakes. I know that if I talked to a coach, he'd tell me I need to play less conservative with my reads, but you are batshitcrazyliberal with yours and I think this sort of play will end with a loss for town. All of the above just seem way too over the top to produce any kind of positive town discussion. He has also consistently asked for information or operated mistakenly based on what he assumed was information in the OP, which again a townie might do if they're ignorant,, but he makes a big case out of not being ignorant. These strike me more as efforts to discuss fringe details that wouldn't be worth teh discussion if he actually wanted to know the answer and just read the OP: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2013 09:48 Spaghetticus wrote: Wait what? am I reading the OP correctly? is a tie a no-lynch? I swear I second checked it to make sure it was plurality? On January 06 2013 09:04 Spaghetticus wrote: Shit I thought we had more time. On January 05 2013 00:28 Spaghetticus wrote: Ew. I didn't realise how little time we had. I don't like Mocsta's absence, as it both deprives us of a valued player and Really? They tell you every single mod post how close we are to the next deadline, and I think it was you who asked for everybody's time zones, and it was you who called for everyone's testimonies before the end of the night. How could you possibly miss that deadline? On January 03 2013 13:25 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon or Zare Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now? The first soft town claim. Still very suspect even though discussion about it has been dropped. On January 04 2013 19:59 Spaghetticus wrote: Is the following question allowed? Do not respond until I have an answer from mod. Jampi. You claim to have talked to a coach that was not quick to respond. Tell me when you posted and when the response came. For someone so concerned with all of this readily available information, he doesn't go to much effort to actually find out -- he just wants the credit of contribution without contributing. He's also said a lot of things that simply aren't good logic. I can see this in a townie for sure, but here it just means that his only contributions are simply bad contributions. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote: Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. Wow, that carries a lot of assumptions that a genuine townie probably wouldn't want to make. If only it were that easy. On January 06 2013 20:25 Spaghetticus wrote: I remember reading in some guide that reductive lists and town reads are counterproductive on Day 1 -- by far it's better to make proactive analysis cases, which Spag hasn't produced at all. All of his "reads" have been reactionary and off the hip. This is more of that assumption-led logic that he had above.I think everyone should make a reductive list of who they won't be pursuing day two. I won't be pursuing:- On January 05 2013 13:00 Spaghetticus wrote: The honeypot is a ploy where a town seduces a scum into revealing himself by making an obvious minor blunder. If someone tries to come in and inflate the minor mistake into a major one when this is outside your read on them, then you have likely found reason to suspect them. A mafia wants to put emphasis on irrelevant or clumsily executed arguments, rather than ones that actually contribute to catching them. If this style sounds familiar, that is because I claimed this exact ploy earlier when explaining my 'slip'. My honeypot was more improvisation than anything, as I actually wanted to know about the mafia QT, but it was a honeypot none the less. Why did no analysis come out of this honeypot, and he was extremely defensive for it at the time? Sounds like a band-aid for an earlier mistake while also spending tons of thread space on THEORY. On Day 2. On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta. I change who I pressure a lot, I do not change my vote a lot. So far I have voted TeMiL, and switched to StriX in day one, and voted for TeMiL in day two, though this could change as well if he'd show up and defend himself. Ummm, he switched OFF of TeMiL day 1, condemned Corazon for wanting to lynch TeMiL on day 2, and then talked about how it would be best for us to leave him be. Now Day 2 he wants to lynch TeMiL again. There is no rhyme or reason, but tons and tons of theory talk. Here are all of Spag's soft town claims that, together, just seem too convenient: On January 06 2013 09:17 Spaghetticus wrote: My will loses a lot of credibility due to me not posting it before the deadline. This is damn unfortunate. No duh! If you were town you would make darn sure it was posted before the deadline. If you were mafia there's not as much pressure. On January 03 2013 13:25 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon or Zare Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now? Covered earlier. If this detail eludes him, he would either read the OP -- and if he were really after the answer, he'd put the question in green for the mod (which he does later to a different soft-claim question, but not this one). On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I have never been scum, and I’ve always assumed they had immediate and direct communication . In between this game, and last, however, I came across some information that implied that scum were alone to begin with, and got the QT come night. He never answered my question as to what that info was, or where. He's explaiend multiple different reasons for his soft-claim at this point -- this weird honeypot idea which he didn't take advantage of at all if he used it, he was simply lazy in the moment, he came across a mysterious piece of info that led him to believe otherwise, and yet he still wasn't sure enough to know but not curious enough to find out but still curious enough to ask the thread but not curious enough to ask the mods directly. On January 06 2013 09:11 Spaghetticus wrote: GG well played Corazon. Thank Christ you managed to post a will on time, as I thought I still had 10-15 minutes, and Mocsta was a no show. This is a little bit like praising the medic. Oh, phew! So glad you got that out! On January 04 2013 19:59 Spaghetticus wrote: Is the following question allowed? Do not respond until I have an answer from mod. Jampi. You claim to have talked to a coach that was not quick to respond. Tell me when you posted and when the response came. Implicit here is the idea that he also has communicated with a townie coach, and can verify whether or not Jampi had access to one or not or is lying. Also here is him conveniently not reading the OP (whereas elsewhere he is incredibly defensive about the idea that he wouldn't read the OP or Mafia guides) so he can take credit for a move forward in analysis that doesn't actually exist, or is even legal. A for effort and all that. On January 07 2013 21:06 Spaghetticus wrote: Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight. Of course he'll die, because he's contributed so much and is a townie and the mafia would love to take him out! what luck that he survived! /s[/spoiler] The final piece here is an analysis of his voting: + Show Spoiler + He made such a big deal about LAL all day, but flung his vote to StriX when Mocstra and myself suddenly went for OE, essentially assuring that StriX would be lynched when it was possible that there'd be a bandwagon lynch of OE. Day 2, who is he talking about again? TeMiL. It seems to me that the only person he wants to talk about is the person who's contributed the least, but the person he actually votes for will be done without clear, building analysis. Now I discounted Spag because I thought he responded well to that first slip, but now that I look back on it, I was mostly impressed by his rigorous defense (read: length of defense) and his general thread presence. But after looking at his actual thread presence, I'm convinced that it is not helping town at all, and persuaded that all of the factors that I've outlined above lead to a clear read of Spag as mafia. I will be busy for most of the rest of the day but will try to check in on this thread as much as possible, but from here on out I am pushing Spag hard. ##Vote: Spaghetticus | ||
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