|
Regarding Bluelightz, I just remembered this post:
On December 15 2012 09:12 Bluelightz wrote:
Lazy about scum hunting - People ignoring me and saying every post I make scum or is somehow scummy... (I post something other guy says "Thats why you should vote BL")
Which basically said he was lazy that he was scumhunting because people are ignoring him and saying that every posts he makes is scummy.
Except that right now, people are begging him to do some scumhunting, he's not getting lynched today, and yet he still doesn't come up with anything useful.
I find this quite interesting.
|
Go read the conversation between marv and blue that happened a few pages back and tell me if you still think he's scum. true he's not really doing anything but he's contributed more than jay. the last two days jay has clocked out as soon as he's pressed to talk about his scumreads...why? he doesn't have any. he didn't even respond to my question a short while ago.
|
On December 20 2012 13:39 thrawn2112 wrote:Go read the conversation between marv and blue that happened a few pages back and tell me if you still think he's scum. true he's not really doing anything but he's contributed more than jay. the last two days jay has clocked out as soon as he's pressed to talk about his scumreads...why? he doesn't have any. he didn't even respond to my question a short while ago.
Because he's telling us why he's voting jay? Because he noted how faulty jay's logic was and how jay didn't explain it properly? Because he disappeared after marv said "ok for now"?
I disagree with marv's dismissing him, BL still hasn't done anything productive and is appearing mostly when called out. He promised a "full response" which I'm yet to see. I hope that if he's town he actually becomes more helpful.
|
On December 20 2012 12:36 thrawn2112 wrote:
you dont need to provide a big case just this very second, you can do that later. i just want as fast of a response as you can give. so who do you think is scum and why?
I already said Z-Boson.
Take at look at how he votes. For both the adam and the VE lynch he didnt even help them get lynched. He waited till they were already had enough votes and then threw his vote in. He hasn't helped us lynch scum yet (as in use his vote to get them lynched)
I also find VE's last minute pointed fingers at Z-Boson a way to set him up to look more townie.
Thoughts?
|
you could say the exact same thing about my votes. i didn't vote for adam and i only voted for ve a few seconds before the deadline. and based on what people have been saying about ve's scum play i'm trying not to read into anything he says right before he gets lynched..... you're gonna need to work harder than that.
do you realize you are getting lynched? you should be trying harder
your current push against boson is pretty weak
|
last cycle you tried really hard to get djo lynched then tried really hard to avoid ve's lynch. now you aren't putting much work into the thread at all. what's up?
|
I feel like im going to get lynched regardless. But if you look i havent put much work in the tunkeg lynch or the VE lynch either.
|
Day 4 Vote Count
jaybrundage (7): Djodref, marvellosity, Bluelightz, Hapahauli, thrawn2112, grush57, Z-BosoN
Hapahauli (1): Vivax
jaybrundage currently set to be lynched. 18 hours until lynch.
|
jay are you still around? i've got a little survey for ya but I don't wanna post it until I know you're watching the thread
|
whatever, just answer when you see it
To Jay:
(a lot of these are "hypothetical" so just go with it. just try to answer as naturally as you can.)
1. if you were a random person in the obs thread watching this game and you think jay is scum, who do you think is the other scum?
2. who else do you think is mafia besides boson and why?
3. why did you vote for boson after saying "Just to be clear i think it would b a mistake to lynch anyone but (djo)"
4. which 2 people would you be most surprised about if they flipped scum?
5. at this point in the game, who are you the most paranoid/scared about being scum?
6. if you are town thinking you are going to be mislynched, why are you being so passive?
7. if boson is scum like you say, what advice do you think ve gave him before ve got lynched?
8. if you are town.... pretend you are scum. pick any other player you wish to be your scum partner. what is your strategy to win the game?
9. if you're town, pretend you are scum. what happened to the mafia kp last night? if you are scum, are there any reasons why you would withhold kp?
10. what are your thoughts about this survey?
|
Some thoughts before I go to bed:
There are three possible explanations for the mafia KP:
1) Mafia are inactive/demotivated and forgot to submit KP.
2) Mafia decided to withhold KP
3) Mafia are making some WIFOM play
Option 2:
I don't consider option two very likely. Withholding KP only makes sense as a play if someone is worried about explaining why they are alive so late in the game. The only person that makes sense for is marv, who made a similar play in Normal Mini Mafia III as scum.
However, it's very doubtful that marv is scum at this stage. Firstly, his meta strongly suggests that he's town. While there's a temptation to think that scum marv is super active all the time, that's just not true. Scum marv can be very active in the early game to build town credit. After that, he seems just as content to coast on his town cred. This is the complete opposite from this game, where he's still active and still very clearly trying to figure things out.
In addition, a hypothetical scum-marv could simply kill a player like thrawn (whom everyone has had a town read on since D1) and come out looking fine. There's very little chance that marv is scum, or that any other player would have made this play.
Option 3:
The only person that a WIFOM play makes sense for is a veteran player who is in danger of getting lynched trying to confuse the town. Rather, it only makes sense for me if I was scum. While it will ring hollow for me to say that "I wouldn't do such a thing," consider what possible scum motives I could have for such a play. There's zero strategical incentive here for me not to kill someone. In fact, if I were scum, I'd increase my chances of survival by killing a player like Djo, thrawn, or Vivax, who have been death-tunneling me for a few days now.
But if you still think I'm WIFOM bombing or something, I refer you to Occam's Razor. What requires more insane assumptions... me pulling this play, or the scumteam simply being too inactive to submit a kill?
Option 1:
This is the only reasonable explanation for the lack of NK in my mind, and it pretty strongly points to a lurker scumteam.
Jay:
I'd rather not belabor the point - pretty much everyone in the thread has outlined the reason's he's scum at this point.
Bluelightz:
Bluelightz is the only reasonable lurker that could be scum. His filter is also not very pretty. I'll do something in more detail tomorrow, but I'm very surprised why people are buying into his "demotivated" act.
In Rockband Mini, I tunneled the hell out of him (along with several other players). Despite being tunneled under similar circumstances to this game, never once did he get demotivated - he was very proactive and resilient in his defense. Just read his filter... it's night and day from his play this game:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=369250&user=235418
Furthermore, he's not getting tunneled at all right now. While I'd understand (and sympathise) with his demotivation earlier, there's just no reason for him to be so lazy in the current situation. He's not under major pressure or anything. In fact many players are trying to encourage him to post. Instead of being constructive, he offers random comments and leaves for hours on end.
Z-Boson
I think there's an outside chance that Z-Boson could be scum, however given how hard that both Jay and VE pushed him on Day 2, I highly doubt he's mafia. Admittedly I have not read through his filter recently. I'll verify this tomorrow.
Grush:
My favorite post on GRush is this post by austinmcc in PTP3:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359357¤tpage=85#1693
I think it outlines the differences between scum and town GRush pretty well. In GRush's scumgames, there are certain posts in his filter for which the only objective is to be antagonistic or trolly. In this game, GRush is remarkably constructive. Even if sheepy, his posts are playful and straightforward. There's no trolling, no antagonism, and no traces of scum GRush this game.
|
@ Thrawn
Do I get a survey? =O
|
idk, i'm all out of silly questions.
imo the night kill stuff is still.... not really worth thinking about yet. your post doesn't include the possibility that mafia just withheld kp intentionally because they'll just get 2 kp next time.
|
On December 20 2012 18:16 thrawn2112 wrote:
idk, i'm all out of silly questions.
imo the night kill stuff is still.... not really worth thinking about yet. your post doesn't include the possibility that mafia just withheld kp intentionally because they'll just get 2 kp next time.
The problem is that there's zero incentive for mafia not to kill someone today. Veteran's dead... JK's dead... why on earth wouldn't mafia take the opportunity to shoot someone like marv?
|
I mean I guess another possibility is that there are two veterans, but no one's claimed yet.
|
On December 20 2012 13:39 thrawn2112 wrote:Go read the conversation between marv and blue that happened a few pages back and tell me if you still think he's scum. true he's not really doing anything but he's contributed more than jay. the last two days jay has clocked out as soon as he's pressed to talk about his scumreads...why? he doesn't have any. he didn't even respond to my question a short while ago.
At one point I had a town read on Bluelightz because his "demotivated" conversation a couple of days ago seemed pretty genuine at first glance. However that stuff is really really easy to fake. In addition, that isn't an excuse for a player who's perfectly capable of posting analysis to... never post analysis.
Living in a perpetually demotivated state is really easy to fake. It's not a town tell. Also, demotivation is something that ebbs and flows with successes and failures of the town. Why isn't bluelightz optimistic now that VE is dead?
|
well, i'm pretty certain about jay being scum. his lynch has been the talk of the thread almost since right before ve got lynched. so it's not like scum would be able to prevent a jay lynch by withholding kp.
for example, they could just withhold kp last night, knowing jay will get lynched but hoping to wifom the thread into a mislynch later on... as I suspect you are doing.
|
On December 20 2012 18:21 thrawn2112 wrote:
well, i'm pretty certain about jay being scum. his lynch has been the talk of the thread almost since right before ve got lynched. so it's not like scum would be able to prevent a jay lynch by withholding kp.
for example, they could just withhold kp last night, knowing jay will get lynched but hoping to wifom the thread into a mislynch later on... as I suspect you are doing.
I realize you have respect for my scumplay, but show me one of my games where I attempt something even resembling a WIFOM play. Hell there's no incentive for a WIFOM play. If I was scum, it would be 10000000x more beneficial to shoot marv, or even you, rather than risk all this shit.
|
ok hapa here is the problem
earlier you made a commitment to thinking bl is scum, but it seemed like more of a process of elimination based read rather than you having real reasons for why you think he's scum. so i've been anxiously awaiting for you to come in with a case on bl... and now your case against him is based on wifom about your scum play and night kill theory.
|
Honestly, it's somewhat insulting that you think I'm capable of doing something that stupid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
